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International Security
International Security Class: TBD Instructor’s Office Hours: TBD Instructor: Costantino Pischedda [email protected] Course Overview This is an advanced undergraduate/graduate introduction to the field of international security. The course focuses on issues concerning the conduct of war and military strategy, surveying both classic texts and recent works on important security policy issues. Questions animating this course include: Why is force used? What causes peace? How does the possibility of war shape international relations and domestic socio-economic arrangements? By what criteria should the use of force be considered legitimate? How can governments effectively prepare to prevent wars, or to win them if they occur? Is the world safer after the Cold War? What are the similarities and differences between inter-state wars, civil wars, and armed conflict between states and transnational actors (such as terrorist groups)? The syllabus is organized in 14 thematic sections (with frequent use of historical examples and case studies); the reading list is divided by class meeting. Learning objectives The course has three main objectives: (1) to introduce students to the complexities of the relationship between political ends, military means, and their “bridge” – strategy; (2) to familiarize students with major theoretical perspectives in international security; and (3) to survey key substantive areas and debates in the field. Requirements This course will be run as a lecture, but student participation is encouraged. To maximize reading time (given the substantial reading load), there is no paper assignment; instead, there will be an inclass midterm and a final exam, corresponding to 35 and 65 percent of the overall grade, respectively. Students are expected to do all the readings, except for the recommended ones, which are included in the syllabus as suggestions for those especially interested in a given topic. Prerequisites Introduction to International Politics or equivalent 1. Introduction: The Nature of War and Competing Philosophical Approaches (classes 1-2) Instrumental rationality and war Functions of war War’s insanity and obscenity Between pacifism and militarism 1 Class 1 Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Michael Howard and Peter Paret, eds. and trans. (Princeton University Press, 1976), Book I, chaps. 1, 2 Peter Paret, “Clausewitz,” in Peter Paret, ed. with Gordon A. Craig and Felix, Makers of Modern Strategy from Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age (Princeton University Press, 1986) Sun-Tzu, The Art of Warfare, Roger Ames, trans. (Ballantine, 1993), chaps. 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11 (The Sawyer, Griffith, Mair, or Huang translations are also acceptable.) Michael E. O'Hanlon, The Science of War: Defense Budgeting, Military Technology, Logistics, and Combat Outcomes (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009), Introduction. Class 2 William James, “The Moral Equivalent of War,” (1910). Paul Fussell, Wartime (Oxford University Press, 1989), chap. 18 Dan Reiter. “Exploring the Bargaining Model of War,” Perspectives on Politics 1: 1 (2003). Richard K. Betts, “Is Strategy an Illusion?” International Security 25: 2 (2000). Alan Beyerchen, "Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Unpredictability of War," International Security 17:3 (1992/93). Recommended: Stephen Walt, “The Renaissance of Security Studies,” International Studies Quarterly, 35: 2 (1991). 2. War as a Historical Phenomenon: Continuity and Change What goals have wars been fought over? Greed Honor Fear Justice Power Class 3 Michael Howard, War in European History (Oxford University Press, 1974), chaps. 4-6 2 Peter Paret, “Napoleon and the Revolution in War,” in Peter Paret, ed. with Gordon A. Craig and Felix, Makers of Modern Strategy from Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age (Princeton University Press, 1986). Martin Van Creveld, The Transformation of War (Simon & Schuster, 1991), chap. 5. Peter Liberman, “The Spoils of Conquest,” International Security 18: 2 (1993). Richard K. Betts, “The Delusion of Impartial Intervention,” in Chester A. Crocker ed., Turbulent Peace: The Challenges of Managing International Conflict (US Institute of Peace Press, 2001). Recommended: Stephen G. Brooks, “The Globalization of Production and the Changing Benefits of Conquest,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43: 5 (1999). 3. Crisis Management and Coercion (classes 4-6) The Spectrum of choice: concession, compromise, combat Deterrence, reassurance, crisis management, and “accidental” war Credibility and reputation Air power Economic sanctions Cases: Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, Gulf War I, Kosovo Class 4 Graham T. Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (2nd ed., Longman, 1999), Introduction and Conclusion. Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966), chaps. 2-4 Robert A. Pape, Bombing to Win (Cornell University Press, 1996), chaps. 2, 3, 6, 9 Daniel Drezner, “The Hidden Hand of Economic Coercion,” International Organization 57: 3 (2003). Class 5 Eliot Cohen and Thomas Keaney, “What did the Air Campaign Accomplish?”, Gulf War Air Power Survey (US Air Force, 1991), chap. 3. Daryl Press, “The Myth of Air Power in the Persian Gulf War and the Future of Warfare,” International Security 26: 2 (2001). Daniel A. Byman and Matthew C. Waxman, “Kosovo and the Great Air Power Debate,” International Security 24: 4 (2000). 3 Andrew L. Stigler, “A Clear Victory for Air Power: NATO’s Empty Threat to Invade Kosovo,” International Security 27:3 (2002/03). Class 6 Jonathan Mercer, Reputation and International Politics (Cornell University Press, 1996), pp. 173. Daryl G. Press, Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats (Cornell University Press, 2005), chap. 1. Vaughn P. Shannon and Michael Dennis, “Militant Islam and the Futile Fight for Reputation,” Security Studies 16: 2 (2007). Todd Sechser, “Goliath’s Curse: Asymmetric Power and the Effectiveness of Coercive Threats,” International Organization 64: 4 (2010). 4. Policy, Strategy, and Operations: Integrating Political Ends and Military Means Three levels of analysis Plans: organization, doctrine, tactics, obstacles Military effectiveness: what produces success in combat? Attack and defense: aggressive, preventive, preemptive, and defensive war The Feedback loop between ends and means Cases: NATO vs. Warsaw Pact Class 7 Clausewitz, On War, Book I, chap. 7; Book II, chap. 3; Book III, chap. 1; Book VI, chaps. 1, 3, 5. Stephen Biddle, Military Power (Princeton University Press, 2004), chaps. 2, 3 John J. Mearsheimer, "Why the Soviets Can't Win Quickly in Central Europe," International Security 7: 1 (1982). Barry R. Posen, Inadvertent Escalation (Cornell University Press, 1992), chap. 3. Eliot A. Cohen, "Toward Better Net Assessment," International Security 13: 1 (1988). 5. Technology and War (classes 8-10) Offense/Defense balance Innovations and interactions Revolution in military affairs? 4 Drones and arms control Cases: Afghanistan, Gulf War II, Libya Class 8 Richard K. Betts, “Must War Find a Way? A Review Essay,” International Security 24: 2 (1999). Stephen Biddle, “Rebuilding the Foundations of Offense-Defense Theory,” Journal of Politics 63: 3 (2001). Eliot A. Cohen, "A Revolution in Warfare," Foreign Affairs 75: 2 (1996) Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr., “The Military-Technical Revolution: A Preliminary Assessment,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (2000), pp. 11-22. Class 9 Biddle, Military Power, chap. 10 Max Boot, “The New American Way of War,” Foreign Affairs (July-August 2003). Stephen Biddle, et al. “Toppling Saddam: Iraq and American Military Transformation,” US Army War College (2004). Stephen Biddle, “Allies, Airpower, and Modern Warfare: the Afghan Model in Afghanistan and Iraq,” International Security 30: 3 (2005-6). Recommended: Erica Borghard and Costantino Pischedda, “Allies and Airpower in Libya,” Parameters (Spring 2012). Class 10 Charles H. Fairbanks, Jr. and Abram N. Shulsky, “Arms Control: The Historical Experience,” in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War (4th ed., Pearson, 2013). Charles L. Glaser, “The Causes and Consequences of Arms Races,” Annual Review of Political Science 3 (2000). Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli, “The Diffusion of Drone Warfare: Industrial, Infrastructural and Organizational Constraints” (manuscript, 2015). Recommended: Wu Riqiang, “China’s Anxiety About U.S. Missile Defense: A Solution,” Survival 55: 5 (2013). 5 6. Ends and Means in Total War and Limited War (classes 11-12) Assessing costs, benefits, and feasibility Finding culminating point of victory Total war: World Wars I and II Limited war: Korea and Kuwait Total or limited? Gulf War II, Afghanistan Class 11 Clausewitz, On War, Book VII, chap. 22; Book VIII, chaps. 1-3, 6. Eric Labs, “Beyond Victory: Offensive Realism and the Expansion of War Aims,” Security Studies 6: 4 (1997). Michael Gordon and Gen. Bernard Trainor, The Generals’ War (Little, Brown, 1995), chaps.1820. Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, Cobra II: the Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq, chaps. 13, 14. Class 12 Stephen Biddle, “Afghanistan’s Legacy,” Washington Quarterly 37: 2 (2014). Bob Woodward, Obama’s Wars (Simon & Schuster, 2010), chaps. 18-19, 21-25, 28, 30. In-class midterm review Midterm exam 7. Society, Regime Type, Culture, and Capabilities (classes 13-14) Small unity cohesion Ideology Nationalism Culture Democracies and autocracies at war Case: Iran-Iraq war Class 13 Edward Shils and Morris Janowitz, “Cohesion and Disintegration in the Wehrmacht in World War II,” Public Opinion Quarterly 12: 2 (1948). Omer Bartov, Hitler’s Army (Oxford University Press, 1991), chaps. 3, 4. 6 Barry R. Posen, “Nationalism, the Mass Army, and Military Power,” International Security 18: 2 (1993). Stephen Rosen, “Military Effectiveness: Why Society Matters,” International Security 19: 4 (1995). Kenneth M. Pollack, Arabs at War (University of Nebraska Press, 2002), “Conclusions and Lessons.” Class 14 Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam, Democracies at War (Princeton, 2002), chaps. 1-3. Alexander B. Downes, “How Smart (and Tough) Are Democracies Anyway? Reassessing Theories of Democratic Victory in War,” International Security 33: 4 (2009). Stephen Biddle and Stephen Long, “Democracy and Military Effectiveness: A Deeper Look,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48: 4 (2004). Caitlin Talmadge, “The Puzzle of Personalist Performance: Iraqi Battlefield Effectiveness in the Iran-Iraq War,” Security Studies 22: 2 (2013). Recommended: Kenneth Schultz and Barry Weingast, "The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of State Power in International Competition," International Organization 57 (Winter 2003): 3-42. 8. Modern War: Constraints, Conditions, Conduct (classes 15-17) Political will and public opinion Economic resources and military power Geography Campaigns, logistics and allies Military implications of unipolarity Class 15 Adam J. Berinsky, “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict,” Journal of Politics 69: 4. William A. Boettcher III and Michael D. Cobb, “Echoes of Vietnam? Casualty Framing and Public Perceptions of Success and Failure in Iraq,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50: 6 (2006): 831-54. Christopher Gelpi, Peter Feaver, and Jason Reifler, “Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq,” International Security 30: 3 (2005/06). 7 Richard Eichenberg, “Victory Has Many Friends: U.S. Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981-2005,” International Security 30: 1 (2005). Class 16 Alan S. Milward, “War as Policy,” in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Alan Kuperman, “Rwanda in Retrospect,” Foreign Affairs 79: 1 (2000). Michael E. O’Hanlon, The Science of War (Princeton University Press, 2009), chap. 3. Barry R. Posen, “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony,” International Security 28: 1 (2003). Class 17 Samuel Eliot Morison, Strategy and Compromise (Atlantic/Little, Brown, 1958), Pt. I, chaps.1820. Dan Reiter, “Exploding the Powder Keg Myth: Preemptive Wars Almost Never Happen,” International Security 20: 2 (1995). Wesley Clark, Waging Modern War (New York: Public Affairs, 2001), chaps. 8-12. 9. Nuclear Weapons (classes 17-19) Deterrence and compellence Rationality, uncertainty, and credibility MAD Prevention Limited war and escalation Nuclear war plans and doctrine Nuclear taboo Proliferation Class 17 Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (3rd ed., Palgrave, 2003), chaps. 6-9, 12, 14-16. Richard K. Betts, “Nuclear Weapons,” in Joseph S. Nye, ed., The Making of America’s Soviet Policy (Yale University Press, 1984). Kenneth N. Waltz, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better,” in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. 8 Scott Sagan, “The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons,” International Security 18: 4 (1994). Recommended: Robert Jervis, “The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons: A Comment,” International Security 13: 2 (1988). John Mueller, “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons: Stability in the Postwar World,” International Security 13: 2 (1988). Class 18 Nina Tannenwald, “Stigmatizing the Bomb: Origins of the Nuclear Taboo,” International Security 29: 4 (2005). Charles Glaser and Steve Fetter, “Counterforce Revisited,” International Security 30: 2 (2005). Evan Medeiros and Taylor Fravel, “China’s Search for Assured Retaliation,” International Security 35: 2 (2010). Daryl Press and Keir Lieber, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2006). Keir Lieber and Daryl Press, “The Nukes We Need: Preserving America’s Deterrent,” Foreign Affairs 88: 6 (2009). Class 19 William Burr and Jeffrey T. Richelson, “Whether to ‘Strangle the Baby in the Cradle’: The United States and the Chinese Nuclear Program, 1960-64,” International Security 25: 3 (2000/01). Whitney Raas and Austin Long, “Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities,” International Security 31: 4 (2007). Barry Posen, “A Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Difficult But Not Impossible Policy Problem,” 2006. Matthew Kroenig, “Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance,” American Political Science Review 103: 1 (2009). 10. Grand Strategy (classes 20-21) Liberal interventionism Isolationism Selective engagement The benefits of primacy 9 Class 20 Barry R. Posen and Andrew Ross, “Competing Visions for US Grand Strategy,” International Security 21: 3 (1996-97). Robert Jervis, “International Primacy: Is the Game Worth the Candle?” International Security 17: 3 (1993). John Ikenberry, “The End of the Neo‐Conservative Moment,” Survival, Vo. 46, No. 1 (2004). Daniel W. Drezner, “Military Primacy Doesn't Pay (Nearly As Much As You Think),” International Security 38: 1 (2013). Jonathan Monten, “The Roots of the Bush Doctrine: Power, Nationalism, and Democracy Promotion in U.S. Strategy,” International Security 29: 4 (2005). Class 21 Robert Art, “Selective Engagement After Bush,” in Ed. Michelle A. Flournoy and Shawn Brimley, eds., Finding Our Way: Debating American Strategy (Center for New American Security, 2008), pp. 25-41. Barry R. Posen, “Pull Back: The Case for a Less Activist Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs (January/February 2013) Stephen G. Brooks, G. John Ikenberry, and William C. Wohlforth, “Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment,” International Security 37: 3 (2012-13). Paul MacDonald and Joseph Parent, “Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment.” International Security 35: 4 (2011). 11. Threat Assessment and Intelligence (classes 22-23) Deliberate aggression or security dilemma? Deterrence and spiral models Intentions and capabilities Intelligence and Uncertainty Cases: pre-WWI and pre-WWII Germany, Pearl Harbor, China, Iraq Class 22 Eyre Crowe, “Memorandum on the Present State of British Relations with France and Germany,” January 1, 1907, and Thomas Sanderson, “Observations on Printed Memorandum on Relations with France and Germany, January 1907,” in G. P. Gooch and Harold Temperley, eds., British Documents on the Origins of the War, 1898-1914, vol. III: The Testing of the Entente, 1904-6 (London: HMSO, 1928) (NB: Read pp. 399-405, 414-419; skim the rest.) 10 Documents 551, 553, and 650 on the Munich crisis in E. L. Woodward and Rohan Butler, eds., assisted by Margaret Lambert, Documents on British Foreign Policy, 1919-1939, 3d Series, vol. II: 1938 (London: HMSO, 1949) Robert Jervis, “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma,” in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Keren Yarhi-Milo, “In the Eye of the Beholder: How Leaders and Intelligence Communities Assess the Intentions of Adversaries,” International Security 38: 1 (2013). Alastair Iain Johnston, “How New and Assertive Is China's New Assertiveness?” International Security 37: 4 (2013). Class 23 Richard K. Betts, Enemies of Intelligence (Columbia University Press, 2007), chaps. 1, 2. David Kahn, “On the Intelligence Failure of Pearl Harbor,” Foreign Affairs (Winter 1991-1992). Stephen Budiansky, Battle of Wits: The Complete Story of Codebreaking in World War II, (Simon and Schuster, 2000), pp. 1-24. Thomas Mahnken, "War in the Information Age," Joint Forces Quarterly (Winter 19951996). Paul R. Pillar, “Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2006). 12. Terrorism and Irregular Warfare (classes 23-24) Asymmetric conflict Rationality and fanaticism Global Jihad Resolve “Political judo” Class 23 Martha Crenshaw, “The Strategic Logic of Terrorism,” in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Mark Juergensmeyer, “Religious Radicalism and Political Violence,” in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Marc Sageman, “Jihadi Networks of Terror," in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. 11 Osama bin Ladin, "Speech to the American People," in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Class 24 Clausewitz, On War, Book VI, chap. 26 Andrew F. Krepinevich, The Army and Vietnam (Johns Hopkins Press, 1986), chaps. 1,6-8, Gian P. Gentile, “A Strategy of Tactics: The Folly of Counterinsurgency” Andrew Mack, “Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict,” World Politics 27: 2 (1975). James T. Quinlivan, “Force Requirements for Stability Operations.” Parameters (Winter 1995). 13. Morality and War Just war doctrine Absolute principles and the morality of responsibility The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) Case: Gaza Class 25 Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars (4th ed., Basic Books, 2000), pp. 58-63, chaps., 5, 9, 16, 19. Paul Fussell, “Thank God for the Atom Bomb,” in Paul Fussell, Thank God for the Atom Bomb and Other Essays (Summit Books, 1988). Jerome Slater, “Just War Moral Philosophy and the 2008–09 Israeli Campaign in Gaza,” International Security 37: 2 (2012). Davis Brown, Michael L. Gross and Tamar Meisels, and Jerome Slater, “Correspondence: Just War Theory and the 2008–09 Gaza Invasion,” International Security 38: 1 (2013). 14. Future Wars and The Future of War (classes 26-27) The obsolescence of war? Cyber-security and cyber-deterrence Global warming and violent conflict The rise of China Mass-casualty terrorism Class 26 Lucas Kello, “The Meaning of the Cyber Revolution: Perils to Theory and Statecraft,” International Security 38: 2 (2013). 12 Martin C. Libicki, Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar (RAND Corporation, 2009), chap. 3. Thomas Homer-Dixon, “Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict,” in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Stephen Van Evera, “A Farewell to Geopolitics,” in Melvyn P. Leffler and Jeffrey W. Legro, eds., To Lead the World: American Strategy after the Bush Doctrine (Oxford University Press, 2008). Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature (Viking, 2011), pp. xxi-xxvi, 31-85,191-200, 684-692. Class 27 Stephen Biddle and Jeffrey A. Friedman, The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy, Strategic Studies (2008), Summary. John Mearsheimer, Tragedy of Great Power Politics (new ed., Norton, 2014), chap. 10. G. John Ikenberry, “The Rise of China and the Future of the West,” Foreign Affairs 87: 1 (J2008) Richard K. Betts and Thomas J. Christensen, “China: Can the Next Superpower Rise Without War?”, in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Final review (date TBD) Final exam (date TBD) 13