Alok Mukherjee Scientific Secretary Centre On Global Change New Delhi

Alok Mukherjee
Scientific Secretary
Centre On Global Change
New Delhi
United Nations Environment Programme
World Environment Day - 5 June 2008
The main international celebrations of World Environment
Day 2008 will be held in New Zealand in the city of
Wellington
Climate change is becoming
the defining issue of our era
When did it all begin?
World Environment Day was established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1972 to
mark the opening of the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment. Another
resolution, adopted by the General Assembly the same day, led to the creation of UNEP
Tanzania's Mount Kilimanjaro are melting affecting the very
existence of these elephants.
The Pattar glacier in Nepal's
Sagarmatha National Park melting
Alarming retreat of Parbati glacier Beas
basin Himachal Pradesh
70% of worlds fresh water is frozen in glaciers.
Glacier melt buffers ecosystems against climate variability
Water Tower of Asia: Himalayas have the largest
concentration of glaciers outside of polar ice caps (33000
km2);
Feeds Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Ynagtze and Hang
Ho.
67% of Glaciers are retreating at large Rates
Issues for Asia: Fresh Water; Food Security;
Biodiversity
In 1962 a total of 2077 square kilometers was covered by glaciers and in 2001 that area was reduced to
1628 square kilometers. This represents a deglaciation of over twenty percent over a forty year period.
Landsat image showing glaciers of the Himalaya Mountain Range (light blue) and the sediment-choked and
braided valley of the Brahmaputra River (purple) of Eastern India
Methane bubbling lakes
• Permafrost or frozen ground is not only important for the stability of buildings,
roads and railways. These soils also contain large quantities of ancient
greenhouse gases which could be released into the atmosphere as a result of
widespread thawing.
• The upper part of permafrost in boreal and arctic ecosystems is
estimated to contain around 750 to 950 gigatonnes of organic carbon,”
says the report. Currently there are around 750 gigatonnes of organic
carbon in the atmosphere.
•The design of the Qinghai-Tibet railway already factors in the likely impact of
a 2.6 degree C temperature rise by incorporating cooling techniques.
•The impacts of climate changes on stability will also need to be considered in
the design of the proposed China-Russia oil pipeline
The air around Earth is always on the move, both across the surface and up and down in the atmosphere.
Coriolis Effect
This effect is caused by the rotation of the Earth.
Trade Winds
Ground-level winds that flow toward the equator and are deflected by the rotation of the Earth.
Atmospheric Hazards
CLIMATE CHANGE:
increases or decreases in temperature or precipitation.
FOG:
reduced visibility creates many transportation problems...
HURRICANES:
spinning giants of the warm oceans contain high winds, heavy rainfall...
SNOW:
the winter season can bring treacherous roadways, reduced visibility...
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES:
heat and cold are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths every
year...
THUNDERSTORMS:
these common events produce lightning,
torrential rain, high winds, and hail...
TORNADOES:
the fastest winds on Earth cause death and
destruction every year...
WILDLAND FIRE:
burning for days over large areas, fire can
quickly damage property and claim lives...
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS WORLDWIDE
• As of 2007, carbon dioxide levels are higher than they have ever been for over half of a
million years.
• Glaciers around the world are rapidly retreating, from Africa to Alaska.
• Sea ice cover has decreased substantially in the Arctic Ocean.
• Migratory bird nesting and breeding patterns have shifted dramatically.
• Lakes are freezing later in the winter and thawing earlier in the spring around the world.
• More record high temperatures have been recorded in the last decade than any other time
in history.
• Weather stations have recorded significant increases in average annual temperatures at
several locations around the world.
• Hurricane intensity appears to be increasing in the Atlantic Ocean, possibly the result of the
availability of additional heat energy.
• Permafrost in the northern tundra regions is melting.
• The length of heat waves in Europe has doubled in the last century.
Global warming and mosquito- borne diseases
Mosquitoes are notorious vectors. They have been implicated in the spread of a large
number of diseases including yellow fever, malaria, filariasis (elephantiasis), dengue
fever, epidemic polyarthritis, Rift Valley fever, Ross River Fever, St. Louis encephalitis,
West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis, Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE), and Western
equine encephalitis.
Mosquitoes are also highly sensitive to temperature. Malaria-carrying mosquitoes
generally do not prefer temperatures below 16°C. The species that transmits dengue
fever is limited by winter temperatures below 10°C. Mosquito survival also drops at an
upper temperature limit of about 40°C.
Two aspects of global warming are particularly worrisome.
Firstly, the warming is expected to be greater in temperate zones than in the tropics, and
Secondly, the warming is expected to be more marked at night than during the day.
Both conditions favour the spread of the mosquito into the temperate areas. The warming at night is
especially favourable to Aedes aegypti and thus may augment its spread with serious
repercussions on human health
.
Emerging infections with special reference to India
• Respiratory diseases
It is known that as the temperature gets colder, many
respiratory infections increase. However, rising global
temperatures over the past two decades may be responsible for
a shortened season of a serious respiratory illness in India.
• Chikungunya fever: An emerging disease in India
The disease is characterised by severe, sometimes persistent,
joint pain, fever and rash but is rarely life-threatening. More
than 1.25 million cases have been reported from the country
with 752,245 cases from Karnataka and 258,998 from
Maharashtra provinces.
Transmission Window of Malaria in Different States of India (a) for
base case and (b) under projected global warming scenario
Global warming and respiratory disorders
•
It is not easily apparent to the
common man that global warming
leads to increase in respiratory
distress and disorders. But most
people realise that repeated and
long-term exposure to certain
irritants can lead to an array of
lung diseases. Particles in the air
may cause lung problems.
•
Often called suspended
particulate matter (SPM), particles
can consist of a combination of
dust, pollens, moulds, dirt, soil,
ashes, and soot. Suspended
particulate matter in the air
comes from many sources, such
as factories, smokestacks,
exhaust fumes, fires, mining,
construction, and agriculture.
Change in atmospheric electric field
• Changes in atmospheric electric fields
before cold fronts, typhoons and
thunderstorms greatly stimulate diseases
relating to the nervous and respiratory
systems. This includes whooping cough,
asthma, bronchitis, sore throat,
rheumatism, and spinal diseases.
What we have to do….!
• Step up the use of clean wind and solar energy
• Replace incandescent light bulbs with compact
fluorescent bulbs
• Become a smart water consumer
• Buy energy-efficient electronics and appliances
• Plant a tree, protect a forest
• Reduce! Reuse! Recycle!
• Mount a local campaign against global warming
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE : EVIDENCE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE : EVIDENCE
Carry on as usual
Implement Kyoto (developed countries
reduce emissions)
Stabilise emissions at 2000 levels globally
Reduce emissions globally 25%
Reduce emissions globally 75%
Dissenters' view
Urban heat islands
Much of the data comes from weather stations close to towns and cities. The warming
may simply reflect the heat associated with the growth of those towns and cities.
Surface measurements showed a small global cooling between the mid-1940s and the
early 1970s.
Small global temperature increases of the last 25 years and over the last century are
likely natural changes that the globe has seen many times in the past. This small
warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are
driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little
understood.
Extra water vapour and cloudiness has its effect
Satellites and balloons
Inconsistencies exists between the surface temperature records and the data produced
by satellite and balloon studies.
The latter show little if any warming in the last two decades of the low to midtroposphere - the atmospheric layer extending up to about 8km from the Earth's
surface
Questionable computers
Scenarios of future climate change that are produced by computer models are deeply
flawed. The task of simulating the complexities of our climate system is beyond the
capabilities of even the fastest supercomputers.
Certain phenomena, such as cloud formation, oceanic heat transport and the mixing of
the air, are still poorly understood
Solar Activity
Sun is a more significant factor in climate change than the rising load of man-made
heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere.
It has been suggested that the solar wind and the Sun's magnetic field can limit the
number of cosmic rays (high-energy particles) that enter the Earth's atmosphere. The
cosmic rays are said to collide with air molecules to produce secondary particles that
seed the cloud types that act to cool the Earth.
Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature
changes
William M. Gray , Colorado State University
Droughts, forest-fires, heatwave, floods and
storms have all hit the headlines in recent
years.
In October it flooded in UK. If homes and
factories continue to be built on floodplains,
the cost of severe flooding will soar.
More than 150 forest fires broke out in Greece
Conservationists say as temperatures rise, forest fires
are set to worsen if more is not done to prevent them.
During the summer of 1998, the US
experienced record temperatures,
and more than 140 people died.
The drought and searing heat also
resulted in crop failure, with
stunted crops in some areas
yielding less than half of what they
should.
Temperatures around Antarctica
have risen five times faster than
the global average over the past
50 years, going up by around
2.5°C since the 1940s. The Arctic
has also seen rapid warming.
A Greenpeace report predicts that the
Great Barrier Reef in Australia will be
dead within 30 years if urgent action is
not taken to prevent the effects of climate
change, pollution and tourism.
When the El Nino weather phenomenon
hit Indonesia, causing the worst drought
in 50 years, the rice crop failed and forest
fires burned out of control, blanketing
parts of the country in heavy smoke Some
experts believe that El Nino may have
become more frequent and intense as a
result of climate change.
Low
- lying Bangladesh and the
neighbouring region is prone to
coastal flooding caused by storm
surges, which have killed
thousands of people in recent
years. Experts say if the sea level
goes up by 1 metre, Bangladesh
will lose 17.5% of its land.
Floods in Mozambique, the scale
of the disaster showed how
unprepared local infrastructures
are for climate change
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Water vapour, carbon
- dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane
form a natural blanket of air around the Earth. However, the
burning of fossil fuels and deforestation has led to a
massive increase in the amount of carbon- dioxide released
into the atmosphere.
About 70% of the sun's energy is radiated back into
space. But some of the infrared radiation is trapped by
greenhouse gases, which warm the atmosphere, and
reflect heat back down to Earth.
The surface of the earth is heated by the sun. As it
warms up, it reflects heat back into the atmosphere.
As a result of the greenhouse effect, the Earth is kept warm
enough to make life possible. Increased emissions of
greenhouse gases are disturbing the balance of this complex
system, causing global warming. In the last 100 years, the
average global temperature has increased by about 0.4 to 0.8° C.
The key polluters responsible for greenhouse gas emission
USA
EU
CHINA
RUSSIA
JAPAN
INDIA
TOTAL CO2 EMMISSIONS
(million metric tons per year)
SOURCE: UNFCCC
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BY 2020
The latest study from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that most regions of
the world will witness a variety of negative effects of global warming including increased human
mortality, shifts in crops and agriculture production, and further degradation of local ecosystems.
Changes in Coastal and Low- lying areas
Asia : South eastern region, will see more flooding, rise in ocean waters
Africa : adaptation coast will be 10% of gross domestic product, mangroves and coral reefs will
further degrade. Central and South America : shifts in Marine life
North America : Polluted and Economically developed regions will see climate variability
Water Supply
By mid-century drought affected areas are expected to increase and flooding due to high
precipitation will occur more frequently. Effects of climate changes on water will be felt most in
underdeveloped countries. Asia : Glacial melt will impact more than a billion people by 2020
Wildlife plants and ecosystems
About 20-30 percent of plant and animal species could be at risk of extinction during this
century if temperatures continue to rise
Central and South America : Reduction of tropical forests, Savannas and biodiversity loss due to
species extinction
Australia and New Zealand : Biodiversity loss in the areas of Great Barrier Reef and
Queensland wet tropics by 2020
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BY 2020
Weather
Major weather changes include increases in wildfires, changes in precipitation patterns and an
increase in storm intensities.
North America : Areas that face heat waves shall see increase in temperature and its
duration.
Food and Products from Forests
Food production in some areas is expected to face an overall net decline, though some regions in mid
to high altitudes could see increases.
Africa : The region will see less land suitable for food production. A reduction in food production up
to half is expected by 2020.
Society, Industry and Settlements
Poor communities are expected to be especially vulnerable to climate change due to lack of
resources and information to adapt.
Africa : Low adaptive ability due to underdevelopment and poverty.
Polar Regions :Substantial investment needed to relocate physical structures and settlements
Health
Mortality is a stronger health concern than disease spread.
Africa : will face acute malnutrition
WHAT CAN WE DO TO CURB EMISSIONS
1. Turn Food Into Fuel
Corn husks are better than corn for producing energy. Ethanol is
the alternative fuel that could finally wean us from our
expensive oil habit and in turn prevent the millions of tons of
carbon emissions that go with it. The non-petroleum fuel
source, include corn, soybean, switchgrass and municipal
waste .
2. Think at Blueprint stage for a Green House
Residential energy use accounts for 16% of greenhouse-gas emissions. For example, control
heat, air and moisture leakage by sealing windows and doors. Insulate the garage, attic and
basement with natural, nontoxic materials like reclaimed blue jeans. Protect windows from
sunrays with large overhangs and double-pane glass. Emphasize natural cross ventilation.
Consider renewable energy sources like solar electric systems, compact wind turbines and
geothermal heat pumps to help power your home. Find bamboo flooring, cork tiles, and
countertops made from recycled wastepaper.
3. Change Your Lightbulbs
The hottest thing in household energy savings is the compact fluorescent
lightbulb (CFL) CFLs cost three to five times as much as conventional
incandescent bulbs yet use one-quarter the electricity and last several years
longer. The wattage gives them away: many 7-watt CFLs are comparable to a
regular 40-watt bulb, 26 watts is the typical CFL equivalent of 100 watts and
so on. But because each bulb still contains 5 mg of mercury, so the bulbs are
one more thing for us to sort in the recycling bin. Light-emitting diodes, or
LEDs don't have this problem, but they can require a bit of DIY rewiring.
4. Light Up Your City
Cities can save energy—and money—by illuminating public spaces with
LEDs, or light-emitting diodes. The new white, brighter fixtures use
40% less electricity than the high-pressure sodium bulbs they replace.
Although they cost two to three times as much, they can go five or
more years without upkeep.
5. Capture the Carbon
Coal is one of the dirtiest fuels around and a major source of the
world's carbon dioxide emissions. It's also hard to live without.
Carbon sequestration is a simple-sounding idea . In the biggest test
so far, a Norwegian energy firm is injecting 1 million tons of CO2 a
year from the Sleipner gas field into a saline aquifer under the
North Sea.
6. Let Employees Work Close to Home
Sitting in gridlock wastes your time and the planet's fuel. The
only solution, it seems, is to move your home next to the office,
or if you could move the office a little closer to home
7. Ride the Bus
With transport accounting for more than 30% carbon dioxide
emissions, one of the best ways to reduce them is by riding a
bus. Public transit saves a lot of fuel.
8. Move to a High-Rise
The denser the area we call home, the smaller our personal
carbon footprint.
9. Just Say No to Plastic Bags
The plastic bags we bring home from the supermarket
probably end up in a landfill. They are typically made of
polyethylene and can take up to 1,000 years to biodegrade
in landfills that emit harmful greenhouse gases.
Home CO2 missions
Auto CO2
Emissions
Air CO2 Emissions
Select a state:
Home type:
Select a state:
Home type:
SmallAverageLarge
Apartment
{0
0
Select number
of vehicles:
Enter the estimated
number of total
hours you fly in a
year: *
Auto Emissions:
Air Travel Emissions:
Townhouse
or Rowhouse
Single Family
Residence
Home Emissions :
Home size:
Small
Average
Large
Your Total Emissions:
Metric Tons of CO2
CALCULATE HOW MUCH YOU EMIT
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC
It recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource whose stability can be affected
by industrial and other emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
The Convention enjoys near universal membership, with 192 countries having ratified.
The Convention entered into force on 21 March 1994
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into
force on 16 February 2005. 180 nations have ratified the treaty to date.
The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while
the Convention encouraged industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions,
the Protocol commits them to do so.
Montreal Protocol
The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer is an international treaty
designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of a number of substances
believed to be responsible for ozone depletion. The treaty was opened for signature on September
16, 1987 and entered into force on January 1, 1989 .
"Perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date