Wind Resource Zone Board March 2 nd 1

Wind Resource Zone Board March 2nd
1
Flow Chart And Timeline
Task
Due Date
Owner
1) Summarizing and analyzing current wind energy conversion system interconnection requests for the state. 2/28/2009
2a) Solicit input from the Board, to determine land availability for potential utilization by wind energy conversion systems in this state. 3/2/2009
2b) Based on input from the Board, determine land availability for potential utilization by wind energy conversion systems in this state. 3/16/2009
Consultant
3) Utilizing the above information to assist the Board in its development of a list of regions in the state with the highest level of wind energy harvest potential. 3/16/2009
Consultant
4) Analyzing, studying and/or modeling, using the most accurate data available to the Board, the wind energy production potential for the state. This task is expected to include studying existing wind energy conversion systems, estimates for additional wind energy conversion system development, and average annual recorded wind velocity levels. Include desktop analysis using publicly available info for land exclusions.
3/30/2009
Consultant
5) Developing a description of the estimated maximum and minimum wind generating capacity in megawatts that can be installed in each identified region of this state.
3/30/2009
Consultant
6) Developing an estimate of the annual maximum and minimum energy production potential for each identified region of this state.
3/30/2009
Consultant
7) Developing estimate of the maximum wind generation capacity already in service in each identified region of this state.
3/30/2009
Consultant
8) Making recommendations to the Board regarding the viability of wind as a source of commercial energy generation in this state;
5/4/2009
Consultant
Consultant
Board
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Flow Chart And
Timeline
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Flow Chart And Timeline
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The First step in this analysis Is to determine the resource Layer to be used.
We Consulted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory EWIT work group to look at their process and use their data to validate the Michigan 100m data.
The results were not encouraging, less than 27% correlation.
We at this point recommend using the 50m data layer.
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Correlation matrix between 50m and 100m indicates.
The Question is what is the low average wind speed cutoff?
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Class three defined by NREL as beginning at 6.4 m/s
EWITS Speed vs. AWS 100m Speed
10.00
9.00
8.00
AWS 100m Speed
7.00
6.00
y = 0.4772x + 4.6153
R2 = 0.0707
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
EWITS Speed
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Flow Chart And Timeline
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The Next Step is to determine the exclusionary areas or scenarios to be considered.
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1.3 million acres of class 3 or better wind at 50m.
Review of other similar studies indicated the following:
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Base Exclusions
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Water
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Wetlands
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Steep Slope
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Airport Buffer
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Potential Exclusions
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Ownership (Public lands etc from CARL Database)
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Road Buffer
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Distance from Urban
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Population Density
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Buffer from Public Lands etc (CARL Database)
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Buffer from Great Lakes Shoreline
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Buffer from Lakes and Rivers
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Bird and Bat Migration
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Not Available
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Rare and Endangered Species
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Flow Chart And Timeline
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Next we examine the grid spacing and layout scenarios
Industry rule of thumb is no less than 5X Rotor diameter, or one turbine roughly every 30 acres.
In actual deployment in Michigan this has been a larger area.
We will examine the current spacing and get input from the wind industry and make scenario recommendations at the March 16th meeting.
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Flow Chart And Timeline
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Next we will estimate power production in consultation with NREL.
This step depends on the resource layer chosen.
Results will be presented March 30th.
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Flow Chart And Timeline
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Next we will present the power estimates for land areas in Michigan at the April 13th Board meeting.
At this time an aggregation method will need to be decided on so we will present several methods and their results for a Board decision.
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Flow Chart And Timeline
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Next we will present the final resource areas on the 27th of April.
This presentation will include all scenarios decided on. Minimum and maximum estimates of both plate capacity and generation capacity.
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Regional breakdown.
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Flow Chart And Timeline
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Last we will model the viability of wind as a generation source in two parts. The first part, led by LPI investigators, will analyze current electricity prices, capital costs, finance costs, land rent, and other factors to develop an economic viability analysis for Michigan wind projects.
The second part, led by Public Sector Consultants, will involve developing, and assisting the Board in implementing, a strategy to solicit input from local units of government on the viability topic. The results of this analysis will be presented at the May 5th Board meeting.
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