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PS 266 CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS IN AMERICAN GOVERMENT
PS 266 CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS IN AMERICAN GOVERMENT Fall 2013 Wednesday, 1:00pm – 3:50pm Professor Bruce Bimber UC Santa Barbara This seminar provides a survey of contemporary research topics in American democracy. The purpose is to familiarize students with especially active areas of contemporary scholarly debate, where theoretical or empirical issues are unsettled or are evolving rapidly, or where new paradigms challenge traditional perspectives. The seminar is in some respects opposite to a survey course focusing on classics or seminal works, though a few of those will appear in our reading. Much of the literature we will read is recent, and we will consider topics in some depth including debates among scholars over specific claims. Students are expected to have prior preparation in PS 215 or its equivalent. The seminar will cover four topics, as follows. A. Changing character of citizenship. For decades, one of the primary normative concerns in the study of American politics has been declining and unequal political participation, especially in the case of voting. This declinist concern has been challenged by research suggesting that citizenship norms and practices are changing rather than simply declining. We will consider this debate about how to interpret the character and quality of citizenship in the US. B. Biology and politics. Since the late 2000’s, a highly controversial new body of work has emerged suggesting several ways in which human biology may be associated with political behavior and attitudes, especially though genetic pathways. A sometimes emotionally heated debate has taken in the pages of the discipline’s elite journals about factual findings as well as the theoretical value of pursuing this line of research. We will read some of the key pieces in this debate. C. Political advertising & commentary. One of the most prominent features of electoral politics in the US is political advertising. It may come as a surprise that research on the persuasive effects of advertising and its consequences for turnout has long produced conflicting findings, especially around questions of negative advertising. We will consider current debates over advertising and turnout. We will also read literature on incivility and the coarsening of politics through political commentary. D. Institutions and policy change. For two decades, questions about legislative productivity, gridlock, divided control, and policy output have been pursued and debated empirically using some key traditional tools, including rational choice models and OLS regression. We will review some of this work and then consider a model of stochastic, non-linear change in institutions involving punctuated equilibrium. This model also has origins in biology and challenges common ways that many scholars think about causation. COURSE REQUIREMENTS 1. Regular participation in discussion is required and contributes 25% of the grade. 1 2. Analytic responses to discussion questions for the reading are due each week and contribute 35% of the course grade. Discussion questions for each week’s reading will be available in advance. These questions will structure our weekly discussions and provide a focus for short weekly writing assignments of approximately 500 words -- roughly one single-spaced page. The weekly analyses are due by Noon on Tuesday, the day before class. They should be posted on GauchoSpace for everyone to see. They will be graded Not Pass, Pass, or Pass+. The expected grade each week for good work is Pass, with Pass+ reserved for exceptional work. 3. Final project: 40% of seminar grade. Due Dec 10. The final project requirement can be fulfilled in more than one way, depending on the student’s intellectual interests and needs. Traditional Seminar Paper (Deep Option). Write a paper pursuing one of topics in this class in further depth. For instance, you might explore the application of changing citizenship norms to a particular problem of interest, develop a comparison of alternative models of policy change and complexity, or provide an assessment of the sources of disagreement in the literature on political advertising. Students pursuing this option should develop and demonstrate a deeper knowledge about the specific problem than provided only in the required reading. AP Exam Prep (Wide Option). Write a paper that situates one of the topics from this seminar in the broader literatures on American politics. If you pursue this option, you should develop a broad perspective on how the assigned reading fits into the study of American politics by drawing on literature from outside the class. Books for Purchase Macedo, S. [et al.] (2005). Democracy at risk: How political choices undermine citizen participation and what we can do about it. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. Jones, B. D., & Baumgartner, F. (2005). The politics of attention: How government prioritizes problems. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Mayhew, D. (2005). Divided we govern: Party control, lawmaking, and investigations, 19461990 (2nd ed.). New Haven: Yale University Press. Dalton, R. (2009). The good citizen: How a younger generation is reshaping American politics (revised ed.). Washington, D.C.: CQ Press. Articles & Chapters Required articles and book chapters are available in electronic form on GauchoSpace. Note also that articles and books labeled “Further Reading” are not required, but are intended as a guide for students interested in pursuing a topic beyond the scope of the weekly discussions. These typically contain a mix of classic literature and new work. 2 SCHEDULE OF READING Week 1. Oct. 2 - Introduction No required reading. However, you may wish to obtain and peruse a copy of Robert Putnam’s Bowling Alone if you are not already familiar with his argument. His very long book is not required for this course but is an important optional further reading for next week. Note that the reading for Week 9 is heavy with a book and four articles, so you may wish to get a head start on Mayhew’s Divided We Govern, which is an easy read. And, for the last week of class we are reading Jones & Baumgartner’s The Politics of Attention. Many students find this book quite challenging and therefore time consuming. You may wish to start on it early. In preparation for discussion this week, be prepared to discuss the following sets of questions: Which theory or research finding about American politics that you have learned in previous classes do you find to be the most convincing or airtight? What are the reasons that you are convinced? Focus on this second part of the question. What theory or finding is the least so, and why? What evidence would be required to persuade you? Consider the following problem that arises in all disciplines: a tension between the drive to refine and improve existing theories so they are stronger and more powerful, and on the other hand the impetus to discard theories in favor of new ideas that entail radically different assumptions and approaches. What are the conditions when one might be preferable to the other? How in practice do you think this tension is worked out in political science? A. Changing Character of Citizenship Week 2. Oct. 9 - The Declinist Story of Citizenship Macedo, S. [et al.] (2005). Democracy at risk: How political choices undermine citizen participation and what we can do about it. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. Further Reading Putnam, R. (2001). Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community. New York: Simon & Schuster. Thomson, I. T. (2005). The theory that won’t die: From mass society to the decline of social capital. Sociological Forum, 20, 421-448. Patterson, T. (2003). The vanishing voter: Public involvement in an age of uncertainty. New York: Vintage. Wattenberg, M. (2002) Where Have All the Voters Gone? Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Wattenberg, M. (2006) Is Voting for the Young? New York: Longman. Teixeira, R. (1992). The disappearing American voter. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. Abramson, P., & Aldrich, J. (1982). The decline of electoral participation in America. American Political Science Review, 76(3), 502-521. Rosenstone, S., & Hansen, J. (1993) Mobilization, participation and democracy in America. New York: Macmillan. 3 Week 3. Oct. 16 – The Transformational Tradition Dalton, R. (2009). The good citizen: How a younger generation is reshaping American politics (revised ed.). Washington, DC: CQ Press. Stolle, D., & Hooghe, M. (2006). Consumers as political participants? Shifts in political action repertoires in Western societies. In M. Micheletti, A. Follesdal & D. Stolle (Eds.), Politics, products, and markets: Exploring political consumerism past and present (2nd ed.) (pp. 265-288). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers. Bennett, W.L. (2004). Branded political communication: Lifestyle politics, logo campaigns, and the rise of global citizenship. In M. Micheletti, A. Follesdal, and D. Stolle (Eds.), Politics, products, and markets: Exploring political consumerism past and present (pp. 101-125). New Brunswick: Transaction Books. Niemi, R., Weisberg, H., & Kimball, D. (2011). Is political participation declining or simply changing form? In R. Niemi, H. Weisberg, & D. Kimball (Eds.), Controversies in voting behavior (5th ed.)(pp.23-40). Washington, DC: CQ Press. Further Reading Inglehart, R. (1997). Modernization and postmodernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in 43 societies. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Zukin, C., Keeter, S., Andolina, M., Jenkins, K., Delli Carpini, M.X. (2006). A new engagement? Political participation, civic life, and the changing American citizen. New York: Oxford University Press. Castells, M. (2007). Communication, power and counter-power in the network society, International Journal of Communication, 1, 238-266. Castells, M. (2012). Networks of outrage and hope: Social movements in the Internet age. Malden, MA: Polity Press. McDonald, M., & Popkin, S. (2001). The myth of the vanishing voter. American Political Science Review, 95(4), 963-974. Norris, P. (2002). Democratic phoenix: Reinventing political activism. Cambridge: Cambridge University. Bennett, W. L. (1998). 1998 Ithiel De Sola Pool Lecture: The uncivic culture: Communication, identity, and the rise of lifestyle politics. PS: Political Science and Politics, 31(4), 740-761. Catherine Bolzendahl, C., & Coffé, H. (2013). Are ‘good’ citizens ‘good’ participants? Testing citizenship norms and political participation across 25 nations. Political Studies, 61, 45–65. Ellison, N., Steinfield, C., & Lampe, C. (2011). Connection strategies: Social capital implications of Facebook-enabled communication practices. New Media & Society 13(6), 873-892. Romer, D., Jamieson, K. H., & Pasek, J. (2009). Building social capital in young people: The role of mass media and life outlook. Political Communication, 26, 65-83. B. Biology and Politics Week 4. Oct. 23 - The Case for Biological Contributions to Political Attitudes & Behavior Alford, J. R., Funk, C. L., & Hibbing, J. R. (2005). Are political orientations genetically transmitted? American Political Science Review, 99, 153-167. 4 Fowler, J., & Dawes, C. (2008). Two genes predict voter turnout. Journal of Politics, 70(3), 579594. Fowler, J.H., Baker, L.A., & Dawes, C.T. (2008). Genetic variation in participation. American Political Science Review, 102, 233-248. Donaldson, Z.R., & Young. L.J. (2008). Oxytocin, vasopressin, and the neurogenetics of sociability. Science, 322, 900-903 Hatemi, P., & McDermott, R. (2012). The genetics of politics: discovery, challenges, and progress. Trends in Genetics, 28(10), 525-533. Deppe, K, Stoltenberg, S., Smith, K., & Hibbing, J. (2013). Candidate genes and voter turnout: Further evidence on the role of 5-HTTLPR. American Political Science Review, 107(2), 375-381. Further Reading Kuhn, T. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 3rd ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Mondak, J., Hibbing, M., Canache, D., Seligson, M., & Anderson, M. (2010) Personality and civic engagement: An integrative framework for the study of trait effects on political behavior. American Political Science Review, 104, 85-110. Barkow, J.H., Cosmides L., & Tooby J., Eds. (1992). The Adapted Mind: Evolutionary Psychology and the Generation of Culture. New York: Oxford University Press. Buller, D. J. (2005). Adapting Minds: Evolutionary Psychology and the Persistent Quest for Human Nature. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Gruszczynksi, M., Balzer, A., Jacobs, C., Smith, K., & Hibbing, J. (2013). The physiology of political participation. Political Behavior, 35(1), 135-152. Sturgis, P., Read, S., Hatemi, P., Gu, Z., Trull, T., Wright, M., & Martin. N. (2010). A genetic basis for trust? Political Behavior, 32, 205-230. Alford, J.R., Funk, C.L., Hibbing, J.R. (2008). Beyond liberals and conservatives to political genotypes and phenotypes. Perspectives on Politics, 6, 321-328. Amodio, D., Jost, J., Master, S., & Yee, C. (2007). Neurocognitive correlates of liberalism and conservatism. Nature Neuroscience, 10(10), 1246-1247. Alford, J.R., Funk, C.L., & Hibbing, J.R. (2008). Twin studies, molecular genetics, politics, and tolerance: A response to Beckwith and Morris. Perspectives on Politics, 6, 793-798. Hatemi, P.K., Alford, J.R., Hibbing, J.R., Martin, N.G., & Eaves, L.J. (2009). Is there a “party” in your genes? Political Research Quarterly, 62, 584-600. Holden, C. (2008). Parsing the genetics of behavior. Science, 322, 892-895. Robinson, G., Fernald, R.D., & Clayton, D.F. (2008). Genes and social behavior. Science, 322, 896-899. Hatemi, P, K., Funk, C.L, Medland, S.E., Maes, H.M., Silberg, J.L., Martin, N.G., & Eaves, L.J. (2009). Genetic and environmental transmission of political attitudes over a life time. Journal of Politics, 71, 111-1156. Wallace, B., Cesarin, D., Lichtenstein, P., & Johannesson, M. (2007). Heritability of ultimatum game responder behavior. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, 104(40), 15631-15634. Dodd, M., Hibbing, J.R., & Smith, K.B. (2011). The politics of attention: Gaze-cueing effects are moderated by political temperament. Attention, Perception & Psychophysics, 73, 24-29. Oxley, D., Smith, K., Alford, J., Hibbing, M., Miller, J., Scalora, M., Hatemi, P., & Hibbing, J. (2008). Political attitudes vary with physiological traits. Science, 321, 16671670. 5 Kosfeld, M., Heinrichs, M., Zak, P.J., Fischbacher, U., & Fehr, E. (2005). Oxytocin increases trust in humans. Nature, 435, 673-676. Smith, K. B., Larimer, C. W., Littvay, L., & Hibbing, J.R. (2007). Evolutionary theory and political leadership: Why certain people do not trust decision makers. Journal of Politics, 69, 285-299. Kirzinger, A., Weber, C., & Johnson, M. (2012). Genetic and environmental influences on media use and communication behaviors. Human Communication Research, 38, 144-171. Week 5. Oct. 30 – Critics and Reaction to the Biological Perspective Charney, E. (2008). Genes and ideologies. Perspectives on Politics, 6, 299-320. Charney, E. (2008). Politics, genetics, and “greedy reductionism.” Perspectives on Politics, 6, 337-344. Beckwith, J., & Morris, C.A. (2008). “Twin studies of political behavior: Untenable assumptions? Perspectives on Politics, 6, 785-792. Charney, E., & English, W. (2013). Genopolitics and the science of genetics. American Political Science Review, 107(2), 382-395. Hibbing, J. (2013). Ten misconceptions concerning neurobiology and politics. Perspectives on politics, 11(2), 475-489. Schlozman, K. (2013). Two concerns about ten misconceptions. Perspectives on politics, 11(2), 490-491. Further Reading Evan Charney, E.,& English, W. (2012). Candidate genes and political behavior. American Political Science Review, 106 (1), 1-34. Fowler, J., & Dawes, C. (2013). In defense of genopolitics. American Political Science Review, 107(2), 362-374. Isaac, J. (2013). Nature and politics. (Editor’s introduction). Perspectives on politics, 11(2), 363-366. Duster, T. (2013). Emergence vs. reductionism in the debate over the role of biology in politics. Perspectives on politics, 11(2), 495-499. Hibbing, J. (2013). Neurobiology and politics: A response to commentators. Perspectives on politics, 11(2), 520-524. C. Political Advertising & Commentary Week 6. Nov. 6 – The Negative Advertising Debate Ansolabahere, S. Iyengar, S., Simon, A., & Valentino, N. (1994). Does attack advertising demobilize the electorate? American Political Science Review, 88, 829-838. Wattenberg, M. P., & Brians, C. L. (1999). Negative campaign advertising: demobilizer or mobilizer? American Political Science Review, 93, 891-899. Lau, R. R., Sigelman, L., & Rovner, I. B. (2007). The effects of negative political campaigns: a meta-analytic reassessment. Journal of Politics, 69, 1176-1209. Lau, R., & Rovner, I. (2009). Negative campaigning. Annual Review of Political Science, 12, 285-306. 6 Krupnikov, Y. (2011). When does negativity demobilize? Tracing the conditional effect of negative campaigning on voter turnout. American Journal of Political Science, 55(4), 796-812. Further Reading Brooks, D. (2011). A negativity gap? Voter gender, attack politics, and participation in American elections. Politics & Gender, 6(3), 319-341. Sides, J., Lipsitz, K., & Grossman, M. (2010). Do voters perceive negative campaigns as informative campaigns? American Politics Research, 38(3), 502-530. Stevens, D. (2009). Elements of negativity: Volume and proportion in exposure to negative advertising. Political Behavior, 31, 429-454. Fridkin, K., & Kenney, P. (2011). Variability in citizens’ reactions to different types of negative campaigns. American Journal of Political Science, 55(2), 307-325. Wang, M., Gabay, I., & Shah, D. (2012). The civic consequences of “going negative:” Attack ads and adolescents’ knowledge, consumption, and participation. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 644, 256-271. Brooks, D., & Murov, M. (2012). Assessing accountability in a post-Citizens United era: The effects of attack ad sponsorship by unknown independent groups. American Politics Research, 40, 383-418. Ridout, T., & Fowler, E. (2010). Explaining perceptions of advertising tone. Political Research Quarterly, 65 (1), 62-75 Geer, J. (2012). The news media and the rise of negativity in presidential campaigns. PS: Political Science & Politics, 45(3), 422-427. Gerber, A., Malhotra, N., Dowling, C, & Doherty, D. (2010). Publication bias in two political behavior literatures. American Politics Research, 38(4), 591-613. Brooks, D. (2010) A negativity gap? Voter gender, attack politics, and participation in American elections. Politics & Gender, 6(3), 319-341. Ansolabahere, S., & Iyengar, S. (1995). Going negative: How political advertisements shrink and polarize the electorate. New York: Free Press. Lau, R. R., Sigelman, L., Heldman, C., & Babbitt, P. (1999). The effects of negative political advertisements: A meta-analytic assessment. American Political Science Review, 93(4), 851-875. Kahn, K., & Kenney, P. (1999). Do negative campaigns mobilize or suppress turnout? Clarifying the relationship between negativity and participation. American Political Science Review, 93 (4), 877-889. Geer, J.G. (2007). In defense of negativity: Attack ads in presidential campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Jackson, R.A., Mondak, J., & Huckfeldt, R. (2009). Examining the possible corrosive impact of negative advertising on citizens’ attitudes toward politics. Political Research Quarterly, 62, 55-69. Lau, R. R., & Rovner, I. B. (2009). Negative campaigning. Annual Review of Political Science, 12, 285-306. Week 7. Nov. 13 – Advertising Effects in General Krasno, J. S., & Green, D.P. (2008). Do televised presidential ads increase voter turnout? Evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Politics, 70(1), 245-261. Franz, M.M, Freedman, P., Goldstein, K., & Ridout, T. N. (2008). Understanding the effect of political advertising on voter turnout: A response to Krasno and Green. Journal of Politics, 70(1), 262-268. 7 Krasno, J., & Green, D. (2008). Response to Franz, Freeman, Goldstein, and Ridout. Journal of Politics, 70(1), 269-271. Sides, J., & Karch, A. (2008). Messages that mobilize? Issue publics and the content of campaign advertising. Journal of Politics, 70, 466-476. Gerber, A., Gimpel, J., Green, D., & Shaw, D. (2011). How large and long-lasting are the persuasive effects of televised campaign ads? Results from a randomized field experiment. American Political Science Review, 105(1), 135-150. Mitchell, D-G. (2012). It’s about time: The lifespan of information effects in a multi-week campaign. American Journal of Political Science, 56(2), 298-311. Further Reading Holbrook, T., & McClurg, S. (2005). The mobilization of core supporters: Campaigns, turnout, and electoral composition in United States presidential elections. American Journal of Political Science, 49(4), 689-703. Huber, G. A., & Arceneaux, K. (2007). Identifying the persuasive effects of presidential advertising. American Journal of Political Science, 51, 957-977. West, D. (2009). Air wars: Television advertising in election campaigns 1952-2008, 5th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press. Just, M.R., Crigler, A.N., Alger, D.E., Cook, T.E., Kern, M., & West, D. M. (1996). Crosstalk: Citizens, candidates, and the media in a presidential campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press Goldstein, K., & Ridout, T.N. (2004). Measuring the effects of televised political advertising in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science, 7, 205-226. Patterson, T. (1993). Out of order. New York: Knopf. Week 8. Nov. 20 – Effects of Incivility and Hostility in Political Communication Mutz, D. C., & Reeves, B. (2005). The new videomalaise: Effects of televised incivility on political trust.” American Political Science Review, 99, 1-15. Brooks, D. J., & Geer, J. G. (2007). Beyond negativity: The effects of incivility on the electorate. American Journal of Political Science, 51(1), 1-16. Weber, C. (2013). Emotions, campaigns, and political participation. Political Research Quarterly, 66 (2), 414-428. Vraga, E., Edgerly, S., Bode, L., Carr, J., Bard, M., Johnson, C., Kim, Y., & Shah, D. (2012). The correspondent, the comic, and the combatant: The consequences of host style in political talk shows. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 89(1), 5-22. Iyengar, S., Sood, G., & Lelkes, Y. (2012). Affect, not ideology: A social identity perspective on polarization. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(3), 405–431. Further reading Mutz, D. (2007). Effects of ‘in-your-face’ television discourse on perceptions of legitimate opposition. American Political Science Review, 101(4), 621-635. Arceneaux, K., Johnson, M., & Murphy, C. (2012). Polarized political communication, oppositional media hostility, and selective exposure. Journal of Politics, 74(1), 174–186. Cao, X. (2010). Hearing it from Jon Stewart: The impact of The Daily Show on public attentiveness to politics. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 22 (1), 26-46. Jamieson, K. & Cappella, J. (2008). Echo chamber: Rush Limbaugh and the conservative media establishment. New York: Oxford University Press. 8 D. Institutions and Policy Change Week 9. Nov. 27 – Traditional Conceptualizations of Legislative Productivity and “Gridlock” Mayhew, D. (2005). Divided we govern: Party control, lawmaking, and investigations, 19461990 (2nd ed.). New Haven: Yale University Press. Binder. S. (1999). The dynamics of legislative gridlock, 1947-1996. American Political Science Review, 93, 519-533. Chiou, F., & Rothenberg, L.S. (2008). Comparing legislators and legislatures: The dynamics of legislative gridlock revisited. Political Analysis, 16(2), 197-212. Binder, S. (2008). Taking the measure of Congress: Reply to Chiou and Rothenberg. Political Analysis, 16(2), 213-225. Klarner, C., Phillips, J., & Muckler, M. (2012). Overcoming fiscal gridlock: Institutions and budget bargaining. Journal of Politics, 74(4), 992-1009. Further Reading Chiou, F., & Rothenberg. (2008). The search for comparability: Response to Binder. Political Analysis, 16(2), 226-233. Chiou, F., & Rothenberg, L. (2009). A unified theory of U.S. lawmaking: Preferences, institutions, and party discipline. Journal of Politics, 71(4), 1257-1272. Saeki, M. (2009). Gridlock in the government of the United States: Influence of divided government and veto players. British Journal of Political Science, 39, 587-607. Binder, S. (2003). Stalemate: Causes and consequences of legislative gridlock. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. Barrett, A.W., & Eshbaugh-Soha, M. (2007). Presidential Success on the Substance of Legislation. Political Research Quarterly, 60, 100-112. Brady, D., & Volden, C. (2005). Revolving gridlock: politics and policy from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush (2nd ed.). Boulder: Westview Press. Krehbiel, K. (1998). Pivotal politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Week 10: Dec. 4 - Non-linearity, Punctuated Equilibria, and Complex Models of Change Jones, B., & Baumgartner, F. (2012). From there to here: Punctuated equilibrium to the general punctuation thesis to a theory of government information processing. Policy Studies Journal, 40(1), 1-19. [This is an introduction to a special issue of the journal dedicated to the topic of punctuated equilibrium.] Jones, B. D., & Baumgartner, F. (2005). The politics of attention: How government prioritizes problems. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Further Reading Wolfe, M., Jones, B., & Baumgartner, F. (2013). A failure to communicate: Agendasetting in media and policy studies. Political Communication, 30(2), 175-192. Prindle, D. (2012). Importing concepts from biology into political science: The case of punctuated equilibrium. Policy Studies Journal, 40(1), 21-43. Baumgartner, F., Breunig, C., Green-Pedersen, C., Jones, B.R., Mortensen, P.B., Nuytemans, M., & Walgrave, S. (2009). Punctuated equilibrium in comparative perspective. American Journal of Political Science, 53, 603-620 Howlett, M. (2009). Process sequencing policy dynamics: Beyond homeostasis and path dependency. Journal of Public Policy, 29, 241-262. 9 Jones, B. D., Sulkin, T., & Larsen, H.A. (2003). Policy punctuations in American political institutions. American Political Science Review, 97, 151-169. Jones, B.D., Baumgartner, F.R, Breunig, C., Wlezien, C., Soroka, S., Foucault, M., François, A., Green-Pedersen, C., Koski, C., John, P., Mortensen, P.B., Varone, F., & Walgrave, S. (2009). A general empirical law of public budgets: A comparative analysis. American Journal of Political Science, 53, 855-873. Mortensen, P.B. (2009). Political Attention and Public Spending in the United States. Policy Studies Journal, 37, 435-455. Carmines, E., & Stimson, J. (1981). Issue evolution, population replacement, and normal partisan change. American Political Science Review, 75(1), 107-118. Baumgartner, F., & Jones, B. D. (1993). Agendas and instability in American politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Jervis, R. (1997). System effects: Complexity in social and political life. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 10