M 12, 2015 4/7/2015 ARCH

MARCH 12,4/7/2015
2015
SET-UP (Activate Prior Knowledge & Connect to Challenge Question)
Noise level 0
•
S-Sit and organize materials for the lesson… Get your journal and a
sharpened pencil.
•
E-Examine and follow teacher’s directions… On your next blank page,
write today’s date at the top. Title this page ~ Probability
•
T-Take the challenge! Write the CQ in journal below the title:
Challenge Question: What operation do you use to solve compound
probability if you see the word “and” in the word problem? What
about if you see the word “or”?

1.
Warm-Up:
What do you remember about probability from 5th and 6th grade?
Make a list of everything you remember in your journal now!
REVIEW OF
PROBABILITY
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
 Probability
is a measure of how likely an
event is to occur.
 For
example –
 Today there is a 60% chance of rain.
 The odds of winning the lottery are a
million to one.
 What are some examples you can think
of?
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
 Probabilities
are written as:

Fractions from 0 to 1

Decimals from 0 to 1

Percents from 0% to 100%
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
 If
an event is certain to happen, then the
probability of the event is 1 or 100%.
 If
an event will NEVER happen, then the
probability of the event is 0 or 0%.
 If
an event is just as likely to happen as to
not happen, then the probability of the
event is ½, 0.5 or 50%.
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
Impossible
Unlikely
Equal Chances
0
0.5
0%
50%
½
Likely
Certain
1
100%
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY



When a meteorologist states that the chance of
rain is 50%, the meteorologist is saying that it is
equally likely to rain or not to rain.
If the chance of rain rises to 80%, it is more likely
to rain.
If the chance drops to 20%, then it may rain, but
it probably will not rain (unlikely to rain).
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
 What
are some events that will never
happen and have a probability of 0%?
 What
are some events that are certain to
happen and have a probability of 100%?
 What
are some events that have equal
chances of happening and have a
probability of 50%?
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
 The
probability of an event is written:
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes
 An
outcome is a possible result of a
probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the possible
outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes
 An
event is a specific result of a
probability experiment

When rolling a number cube, the event of
rolling an even number is 3 (you could roll a
2, 4 or 6).
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
PROBABILITY
P(event) = number of ways event can occur
total number of outcomes
What is the probability of getting heads
when flipping a coin?
P(heads) = number of ways = 1 head on a coin = 1
total outcomes = 2 sides to a coin = 2
P(heads)= ½ = 0.5 = 50%
LEARNING TOGETHER
Noise level 2
TRY THESE:
A
D
1. What is the probability that the spinner
will stop on part A?
1
2. What is the probability that the
spinner will stop on
(a) An even number?
(b) An odd number?
C B
3. What is the probability that the
spinner will stop in the area
marked A?
B
C
3
2
A
LEARNING TOGETHER
Noise level 2
PROBABILITY WORD PROBLEM:

Lawrence is the captain of his track team. The
team is deciding on a color and all eight members
wrote their choice down on equal size cards. If
Lawrence picks one card at random, what is the
probability that he will pick blue?
Number of blues = 3
3/8 or 0.375 or 37.5%
Total cards = 8
blue
blue
green
black
yellow
blue
black
red
LEARNING TOGETHER
Noise level 2
LET’S WORK THESE TOGETHER

Donald is rolling a number cube labeled 1 to 6.
What is the probability of the following?
a.) an odd number
3/6 = ½ = 0.5 = 50%
odd numbers – 1, 3, 5
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
b.) a number greater than 5
1/6 = 0.166 = 16.6%
numbers greater – 6
total numbers – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
LEARNING TOGETHER
Noise level 2
TRY THESE:
1
3
2
4
1. What is the probability of spinning a
number greater than 1?
2. What is the probability that a spinner
with five congruent sections numbered
1-5 will stop on an even number?
3. What is the probability of rolling a
multiple of 2 with one toss of a number
cube?
REVIEW OF TOTAL
POSSIBLE
OUTCOMES
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
TREE DIAGRAM – TOTAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Make a tree diagram to represent the following situation:
I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red, yellow,
and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I draw out one marble
from the bucket and roll the dice once, what are all the
possible outcomes?
How many
total possible
outcomes?
Red
Yellow
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
Blue
1
2
3
4
5
6
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
AREA MODEL – TOTAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Make an area model to represent the following
situation:
I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket (red,
yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice). If I
draw out one marble from the bucket and roll the
dice once, what are all the possible outcomes?
1
2
3
4
5
6
Red
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
Yellow
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Blue
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
REVIEW OF HOW TO
CALCULATE
PROBABILITY OF
COMPOUND EVENTS
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
“AND” VS. “OR”

I have 3 different colored marbles in a bucket
(red, yellow, and blue) and a number cube (dice).
If I draw out one marble from the bucket and roll
the dice once:
1.
What is the probability of drawing a yellow and
rolling an even?
2.
What is the probability of drawing a yellow or
rolling an even?
PRESENTATION
Noise level 0
“WITH REPLACEMENT” VS. “WITHOUT
REPLACEMENT”

With replacement ~ the object is replaced before
the next object is drawn (the total stays the same
for both probabilities)


Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3 red
and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing and
blue, replacing it, and then drawing a green?
Without replacement ~ the object is not replaced
before the next object is drawn (the total is
different for both probabilities)

Ex. You have a bucket with 10 marbles (5 blue, 3 red
and 2 green). What is the probability of drawing and
blue, setting it aside, and then drawing a green?
LEARNING TOGETHER
Noise level 2
“WITH REPLACEMENT” VS.
“WITHOUT REPLACEMENT”

Adam has a bag containing four yellow gumdrops and one
red gumdrop. he will eat one of the gumdrops, and a few
minutes later, he will eat a second gumdrop.
a) Draw the tree diagram for the experiment.
b) What is the probability that Adam will eat a yellow
gumdrop first and a green gumdrop second?
c) What is the probability that Adam will eat two yellow
gumdrops?
d) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops
with the same color?
e) What is the probability that Adam will eat two gumdrops
of different colors?
ASSESSMENT
Noise level 0
How long do I have? 45 mins
 What do I do? By yourself, complete the Unit 5
Common Assessment

WRAP-UP
Noise level 0
W- Write homework assignment in planner (Unit 5
Common Assessment due on Wednesday,
April 8th)
R- Return materials and organize supplies
A-Assess how well you worked in a group or
individually
Did I/we maintain operating standards?
Did I/we work toward learning goals?
Did I/we complete tasks?
P- Praise one another for high quality work:
Tickets for a “P” performance overall