¯ Before the Flood:

Before the Flood:
Misperception of flood risk in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
¯
Yolo
Sacramento
Sacramento
Solano
San Joaquin
Hamburg, MS 1927
Great Flood 1993
New Orleans, LA 2005
Cedar Rapids, IA 2008
Fargo, ND 2009
San Joaquin County, California
Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the United States
Spanos Park West
Despite national policy aimed at reducing risk
Stockton
Antioch
• flood damages are rising
• flood risk is increasing
• policy encourages residents to take uninformed risks:
move into floodplains without hazard warning
­
1.8 million people in the
Central Valley rely on levees
for flood protection.
(DWR 2008)
Contra Costa
The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
People believe a levee removes all risk.
Alameda
The Delta
Given flooding is likely to increase in future due to climate change,
and rapid floodplain urbanization puts more people at risk without their knowledge, this prompts a step back.
Stanislaus
Data source: DWR, California Energy Commission
24
mile
primary zone
urban areas
secondary zone
natural gas and electricity lines
water
freeways
0
neighborhood
Living with levees: do residents understand their real risk?
Residual Risk from larger floods is 26% over 30 years
•Islands below sea-level
•1,100 miles of aging levees vulnerable to earthquake
•Population: 3.5 million 7.5 million by 2050
•More than 160 levee failures in last 100 years
Water temperature and hypothermia in the Delta
Temperature (Farenheit)
100
Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans
90
80
90 F
Residual Risk
safe
70
unsafe
60
Sea level rise
The Delta* 49 F
50
40
30
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Time of exposure ( hours)
10
Time of exposure until exhaustion/unconsciousness due to hypothermia
(hours)
0 Sacramento, American, and San Joaquin
*The
Rivers are 47o F, 49o F, and 50o F respectively
Subsidence
Human developments , critical infrastructure, and ecological communities at
risk.
San Joaquin County: 30,800 units to be developed in high-risk areas
Seepage
14
safety standard:
100-year flood
Seismicity
on January 1, 2009
*( The Sacramento, American, and San Joaquin Rivers are 47, 49, and 50 d. F respectively)
Behavior is tied directly to perception. Those who are aware of a risk are more likely to take precaution and behave differently during a flood.
Motoyoshi 2006
Jessica Ludy, UCOWR 2009: [email protected]
2210000 FT
JS1156
DA
NU
CT BE
BER
LANIE
R
LN
MOMO
CT
RYE
S
DR SA
AL
M
CI ANO
R
R
VE
LN
NA
D IS A P
P O IN
Leve
e
JS1160
TMEN
T S LO
2
UM N
ES D
R
Levee
BEAR
CREEK
PIXLEY SLOUGH
UGH
ZONE A
42
12000mN
ZONE AE
PPO
EN
IN T M
Road
OUG
T SL
(EL 9)
H
W RINDGE RD
evee
on L
CITY OF STOCKTON
JS1161
City of Stockton
060302
Levee
D IS A
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY
ZONE A
WARNING:
AREA PROTECTED BY
PROVISIONALLY ACCREDITED LE
ACCREDITATION EXPIRES ON
AUGUST 23, 2009.
FOR EXPLANATION, SEE THE
NOTES TO USERS.
ZONE X
MOSHER SLOUGH
San Joaquin County
Unincorporated Areas
060299
Levee
Canal
ZONE A
ZONE AE
Flood Insurance Rate Map
Ca
na
l
zone AE
zone X
RT
EE
NM
ILE
SL
OU
Levee
JOINS PANEL 0315
JOINS PANEL 0290
JS1162
FO
U
Contact the FEMA Map Service Center at 1-800-358-9616 for information on
available products associated with this FIRM. Available products may include
previously issued Letters of Map Change, a Flood Insurance Study report, and/or
digital versions of this map. The FEMA Map Service Center may also be reached
by Fax at 1-800-358-9620 and their website at http://www.msc.fema.gov/.
Source: FEMA 2008
42
10000mN
Spanos Park West
GH
Le
ve
e
Ca
nal
Flood maps
JS1163
Road on Levee
ZONE AE
(EL 9)
2195000 FT
Levee
WARNING: This map contains levees, dikes, or other structures that have been
provisionally accredited and mapped as providing protection from the 1-percent–
annual-chance flood. To maintain accreditation, the levee owner or community is
required to submit documentation necessary to comply with 44 CFR Section 65.10
by the date shown on the map panel. Because of the risk of overtopping or failure
of the structure, communities should take proper precautions to protect lives and
minimize damages in these areas, such as issuing an evacuation plan and
encouraging property owners to purchase flood insurance.
11000mN
(EL 9)
Please refer to the separately printed Map Index for an overview map of the
county showing the layout of map panels; community map repository addresses;
and a Listing of Communities table containing National Flood Insurance Program
dates for each community as well as a listing of the panels on which each
community is located.
Insurance required on properties with
federally backed mortgages
42
Levee
2200000 FT
If you have questions about this map or questions concerning the National Flood
Insurance Program in general, please call 1- 877- FEMA MAP (1-877-336-2627) or
visit the FEMA website at http://www.fema.gov/.
•Don’t show areas that will flood when levee breaks or overtops.
•Largely inaccurate- not geo-referenced, updated with
urbanization or sedimentation.
•Give perception of “safe” vs “unsafe”...
42
09000mN
e
ve
Le
Rate determined by SFHA and flood
insurance rate map (FIRM)
Ca
na
l
FIVEMILE SLOUGH
ZONE AE
(EL 9)
ZONE AE
JS1164
ES
IL
LO
2190000 FT
Lev
e
e
RT
NM
EE
(EL 9)
H
UG
Insurance rates
JS1165
W
e
Lev
RI N
DG
ER
City of Stockton
060302
ON
Y
KT
NT
OC
S T C OU
OF
N
UI
TY
CI
AQ
JO
N
SA
U
FO
(Lichtenberg 1994)
COS
5
IR
E C
N
M
MOK ELU
NA
3 AS ADE DR
P
1
l
na
Ca
Criticisms of the NFIP: a “moral hazard”
SPAULDING LN
e
ve
Le
Corporate limits shown on this map are based on the best data available at the
time of publication. Because changes due to annexations or de-annexations may
have occurred after this map was published, map users should contact appropriate
community officials to verify current corporate limit locations.
No new development within SFHA
Existing structures: building standards
Requires elevating above base flood heights
IEP
ER
BIC
O
2205000 FT
KEY TO NUMBERED STREETS
1.....HEAVENCREST CT
2.....CASTLEBROOK CT
3.....PENNY LN
4.....NAVARRO PL
5.....MIRROR PL
6.....REFLECTION LN
7.....SHAVER CT
8.....PYRAMID DR
9.....PYRAMID LN
10.....MIRAMONTE WAY
11.....NETTLE WAY
4
NATOMA CIR
HAVENCREST
CIR
Leve
e
13000mN
10
FEMA delineates the 100-year floodplain
called: Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)
BEARDSLEY
LN
GLADSTONE DR
6
To obtain current elevation, description, and/or location information for bench
marks shown on this map, please contact the Information Services Branch of the
National Geodetic Survey at (301) 713-3242, or visit their website at
http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/.
Flood insurance
7
42
BRITTON AVE
SUNBIRD
WAY
ZONE AE
This map reflects more detailed and up-to-date stream channel configurations
than those shown on the previous FIRM for this jurisdiction. The floodplains and
floodways that were transferred from the previous FIRM may have been adjusted
to conform to these new stream channel configurations. As a result, the Flood
Profiles and Floodway Data tables in the Flood Insurance Study report (which
contains authoritative hydraulic data) may reflect stream channel distances that
differ from what is shown on this map.
Floodplain management
DN
RU
N RIO
BLANCO RD
The projection used in the preparation of this map was Universal Transverse
Mercator (UTM) Zone 10N. The horizontal datum was NAD83, GRS80 spheroid.
Differences in datum, spheroid, projection or UTM zones used in the production of
FIRMs for adjacent jurisdictions may result in slight positional differences in map
features across jurisdiction boundaries. These differences do not affect the
accuracy of this FIRM.
MELONES
WAY
City of Stockton
060302
JS1157
Base map information shown on this FIRM was derived from multiple sources.
This information was compiled from the U.S. Geological Survey, 1989, National
Geodetic Survey, 2002, City of Lathrop, 1997, City of Manteca, Dept. of Public
Works, 2001, City of Ripon, 2002, Cities of Stockton and Lodi, 2006, and San
Joaquin County, 2006. Additional information was photogrammetrically compiled
at a scale of 1:12,000 from U.S. Geological Survey aerial photography dated 1989,
1993 and 2002.
Flood mapping
LAKEMORE
LN
Levee
BISHOP CUT
Road on Levee
CRESTVIEW
CIR
RUBICON CT
8
DANUBE
WAY
E
PIK
ITY
(EL 10)
9
DR
NOYO
LN
COPCO
LN
ZONE AE
S EY
HENSHAW
DR
Denial
TY
OU N
IN C
A QU
ON
T
O
K
J
T OC
SAN
OF S
CITY
NGS Information Services
NOAA, N/NGS12
National Geodetic Survey, SSMC-3, #9202
1315 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, Maryland 20910-3282
(301) 713-3242
National Flood Insurance Program
ES
CLARKS FORK
CIR
LOKI LN
OLIVER
DR
WAY
T INA LN
10
N
TRI
SCOTT CREEK DR
KING ISLAND
Certain areas not in Special Flood Hazard Areas may be protected by flood
control structures. Refer to Section 2.4 "Flood Protection Measures" of the Flood
Insurance Study report for information on flood control structures in this jurisdiction.
Flood elevations on this map are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum
of 1988. These flood elevations must be compared to structure and ground
elevations referenced to the same vertical datum. For information regarding
conversion between the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 and the North
American Vertical Datum of 1988, visit the National Geodetic Survey website at
http://www.ngs.noaa.gov or contact the National Geodetic Survey at the following
address:
ASBURY
WISHON
DR
Benefits
ARROWOOD
CT
ZONE X
12
MIMIR
CIR
RIDGEVIEW
CIR
11
9
PT= 1 - (1- PF )
“100- Year Flood”
n
W EIGHT MILE RD
R
CO
Misunderstanding probability
and terminology
ANTLER CT
W EIGHT MILE RD
NN
HE
Media
ZONE X
MERRIT
DR
Coastal Base Flood Elevations shown on this map apply only landward of 0.0'
North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). Users of this FIRM should be
aware that coastal flood elevations are also provided in the Summary of Stillwater
Elevations table in the Flood Insurance Study Report for this jurisdiction. Elevations
shown in the Summary of Stillwater Elevations table should be used for
construction, and/or floodplain management purposes when they are higher than
the elevations shown on this FIRM.
Boundaries of the floodways were computed at cross sections and interpolated
between cross sections. The floodways were based on hydraulic considerations
with regard to requirements of the National Flood Insurance Program. Floodway
widths and other pertinent floodway data are provided in the Flood Insurance
Study report for this jurisdiction.
Trust in administration
WARNING! THIS AREA IS SHOWN AS BEIN
PROTECTED FROM THE 1-PERCENT-ANN
CHANCE FLOOD HAZARD BY LEVEE, DIKE
OTHER STRUCTURE. OVERTOPPING OR
FAILURE OF THIS STRUCTURE IS POSSIB
WHICH COULD RESULT IN DESTRUCTIVE
ELEVATIONS AND HIGH-VELOCITY
FLOODWATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE TH
LARGE FLOODS WILL OCCUR THAT ARE
GREATER THAN THE LEVEL OF PROTECT
PROVIDED BY THE LEVEE. COMMUNITIES
SHOULD ISSUE EVACUATION PLANS AND
ENCOURAGE PROPERTY OWNERS BEHIN
THESE STRUCTURES TO PURCHASE
FLOOD INSURANCE, EVEN IF THE STRUC
IS CURRENTLY SHOWN AS PROVIDING
PROTECTION FOR THE 1-PERCENT-ANNU
CHANCE FLOOD.
WESTCHESTER
CIR
ARROWOOD
DR
Presence of structures
121º 26' 15"
38º 03' 45"
SILVER OAK CIR
Flood Risk Perception Factors
Experience
121º 22' 30"
38º 03' 45"
JOINS PANEL 0285
l
na
Ca
To obtain more detailed information in areas where Base Flood Elevations
(BFEs) and/or floodways have been determined, users are encouraged to consult
the Flood Profiles and Floodway Data and/or Summary of Stillwater Elevations
tables contained within the Flood Insurance Study (FIS) report that accompanies
this FIRM. Users should be aware that BFEs shown on the FIRM represent
rounded whole-foot elevations. These BFEs are intended for flood insurance rating
purposes only and should not be used as the sole source of flood elevation
information. Accordingly, flood elevation data presented in the FIS report should
be utilized in conjunction with the FIRM for purposes of construction and/or
floodplain management.
6305000 FT
6300000 FT
6295000 FT
N STEFANI RD
Before the Flood:
Risk perception and the National Flood Insurance Program
The NFIP and uninformed risk
NOTES TO USERS
This map is for use in administering the National Flood Insurance Program. It does
not necessarily identify all areas subject to flooding, particularly from local drainage
sources of small size. The community map repository should be consulted for
possible updated or additional flood hazard information.
D
42
08000mN
e
•Too low or subsidized and not required behind levees.
• Therefore, land is cheap, not reflecting true negative value.
PRELIMINARY
38º 00' 00"
121º 26' 15"
38º 00' 00"
121º 22' 30"
JOINS PANEL 0435
06
000m
38
E
06
39000mE
06
40000mE
06
41000mE
06
42000mE
Uninformed “experts”
Levee construction encourages growth, increasing damages during a flood, which counteracts the purpose of the levee
•Make important decisions based on a “line drawn in the sand”
uncertainty, and incomplete information.
Political pressure
•Decision-makers, engineers, emergency planners:
fear of depressing home prices.
if encourage insurance or protection, it appears levees aren’t safe, that authorities are not doing their job.
•Doesn’t account for residual risk and omits people from the economic analysis
•‘100-year flood’ standard is uncertain, inadequate, misunderstood
Legend
Data source: FEMA 1996 and Westoff 2007
500-year
floodplain
100-year Floodplain
(FEMA)
500-year Floodplain (FEMA)
100-year floodplain
0
3
6
12
18
Miles
24
• what experts define as “safe” or “unsafe” is based on a “line in the sand”
• we lack sufficient historical data to accurately predict the true 100-year flood
• 25% of flood insurance claims come from areas “outside” the 100 year floodplain
•Development is encouraged behind levees for an increased tax-base and assessment fee to fund levee maintenance.
“Out of the floodplain”
No insurance required
No building restrictions
Source: DWR 2004
source: maps.live.com 2009
source: maps.live.com 2009
100-year floodplain
Most residents believe they would not be allowed to live behind a levee if it were not safe! (Association of State Floodplain Managers, 2008)
“ In the floodplain”
No new development
Insurance required
Must elevate buildings
Before the Flood:
Spanos Park West, Stockton, California
Methods
Delta Visits
Spanos Park West
source: panoramio.com
Built in 2000
A.G. Spanos Company
Sampling. Excel, random generator, 500 of 1284
Survey and method review
Units: 1284
Average lot size: 7000 ft2
Price: $200,000-$999,995
Foreclosures: 10%
Reviewed
by Disaster
Management
practitioners,
planners,
academics
Bear Creek
Bear Creek Levee
Bear Creek Levee:
Built 1870, finished 1909
Recertified 2006
Tidal flux: 6 feet
Mailing
Contents
What do YOU think about flood risk in Stockton?
College of
Environmental
Design
Thank you very much for your participation in this survey! When
you are finished, please place the questionnaire in the enclosed selfaddressed envelope and drop it in the mail. Any question you would
prefer not to answer may be left blank. Please attach additional pages
if needed. For any clarification, please email me at [email protected]
Thank you very much.
L AN DS CAPE AR CHITE CTU RE
AN D EN VI RO NMENT AL PLA NNI NG
University of California, Berkeley
202 Wurster Hall #2000
Berkeley, California 94720-2000
phone 510.643-9335
fax 510-643-6166
Dear Spanos Park West Resident,
Bear Creek Levee
January 5th, 2009
I am writing to invite you to participate in an important research study on flood risk and
perception in San Joaquin County. My name is Jessica Ludy and I am a Master’s degree candidate at
the University of California, Berkeley. Your household has been randomly selected to fill out the
enclosed survey which asks you to share your experiences and thoughts about living in this area. Your
responses are very valuable and will be useful in helping improve flood planning and policies in
California.
+10
If you return this survey, you can be automatically entered in a raffle for $100.
If you choose to participate, you need to:
-2 feet
Bear Creek
sea-level
-4 low tide
Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in questions on the survey that you do not wish to answer.
Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all
If you have any questions or comments about this study or the questionnaire, I would be happy to talk
addresses in your neighborhood.
with you. My email address is [email protected]. You may also contact my department at the
If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please
accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for
your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and
experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to
improve planning.
If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please
Thank you in advance for your help, and Happy New Year.
accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for
your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and
experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to
improve planning.
If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me
and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected]
If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me
and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected]
Houses built to levees edge
10
30
50
70
-10
90
How long have you lived in the Stockton area? (check one)
___0-2 years
___3-5 years
___6-10years
___11-20years
5.
Master’s Candidate
University of California, Berkeley
Jessica Ludy
Master’s Degree Candidate
Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning
Univeristy of California, Berkeley
January 15, 2009
January 15, 2009
Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in
Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all
addresses in your neighborhood.
Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in
Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all
addresses in your neighborhood.
If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please
accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for
your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and
experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to
improve planning.
If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please
accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for
your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and
experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to
improve planning.
If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me
and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected]
If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me
and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected]
Jessica Ludy
Master’s Degree Candidate
Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning
Univeristy of California, Berkeley
Jessica Ludy
Master’s Degree Candidate
Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning
Univeristy of California, Berkeley
Interstate 5
Do you rent your home, own it, or some other arrangement? (check one)
___Rent
___Own
___Other (please explain)________________________________________________
sea-level
___Yes
___No
What are the five most important reasons you chose to purchase (or rent) your home? (please rank on a scale from 1
being the most important, 5 being the least important)
6.
Do you have flood insurance? (check one)
___Yes
___No
7.
Do you consider your property to be at high, medium, or low risk of flooding? (check one)
___High
___Medium
___Low
8.
Have you ever experienced flooding? (check all that apply)
___In your past residence
___In your current residence
___In a temporary residence (ie, on vacation)
___No
Questionnaire Returns
If you answered YES, when was it? (write in date/year)________________________________________________________
Dept. of Landscape Architecture
What
happened? (please explain) _________________________________________________________________________
University of California,
Berkeley
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
202 Wurster Hall MC #2000
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Berkeley, CA, 94720-2000
Timeline
Delta and site visits
+5 elevation
___more than 20 years
___Quality of the schools
___Close to work
___Close to the family
___Low price compared to similar houses elsewhere
___Always lived in the Delta region
___Close to the river
___Character of area (eg; environment, landscape, etc)
___Architectural style of home
___Other (please explain)______________________________________________________________________________
Jessica Ludy
Data Entry
-5 elevation
3.
address on the letterhead.
Eight-mile rd
Typical street
How much longer do you estimate you will live in your current home? (check one)
___0-2 years
___3-5 years
___6-10years
___11-20years ___more than 20 years
Your responses will be kept as confidential as possible. Protecting your privacy is important and
your name will never connect with your survey answers in any way. You may feel free to skip any
Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in
Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all
addresses in your neighborhood.
Jessica Ludy
Master’s Degree Candidate
Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning
Univeristy of California, Berkeley
0 feet
January 15, 2009
2.
If you OWN your home, do you have a fixed mortgage? (check one)
It is completely your choice to participate in the survey. However, your responses are very important.
Any adult who is 18 years or older may complete the enclosed questionnaire. If for some reason you
prefer not to respond, please let me know by returning the blank questionnaire in mail.
January 15, 2009
How long have you lived in your current home? (check one)
___0-2 years
___3-5 years
___6-8years
4.
-Fill out the enclosed survey- it usually takes about 15 minutes or so.
-Mail it back in the enclosed envelope. No stamps are needed.
-If you wish to participate in the raffle, please provide your contact information at the end of the
survey in the space provided.
+2 high tide
1.
Winter and Spring
Expert interviews and context April and May
Public meeting June 12
Survey writing and revision April-November
A.G. Spanos HQ
Site selection criteria:
Pre-test November 28
•New suburban development
•Rapid growth region
•Protected by 100-year recertified levee
Typical house
First response December 4
2009
First full mailing January 5
Reminder postcard January 15
Site visit with experts February 11
Second mailing February 21
Bear Creek Levee
Bear Creek Levee
Pump station
Bishop Tract, Reclamation District 2042
source: KJeldsen, Sinnock, and Neudeck 2008
Last response collected March 7
Before the Flood:
SURVEY RESULTS
Conclusions
•Despite a highly educated population, residents are unaware of their real flood risk.
•Residents believe a “100-year” levee protects them from all flooding.
•Residents are unprepared for a flood.
114 Usable responses, 24.2% response rate
Risk perception/awareness
not at all confident
high
High Risk
moderate
s omewhat confident
Medium Risk
Low Risk
low
no
0
0
10
10
somewhat concerned
not at all concerned
0
20
20
10
30
30
# households
20
40
40
50
30
50
40
60
60
50
70
60
0
0
70
10
10
20
20
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
60
70
0
10
20
0
30
0
40
10 50
10
20 60
20
30 70
30
second floor
s omewhat
Medium Risk
Income
first floor
concerned
Low Risk
yard
very confident
very confident
No Risk
# households n=113
n=109
confident
confident
Low Risk
V ery
very confident
No Risk
Medium Risk
my property will not flood
* 13 residents “unsure”
50
40
50
60
70
60
Recommendations
“Damage incurred to carpet, the floors, walls, insulation in walls,
electrical wiring, and possible foundation damage.”
Further Study
0
10
0
20
10
30
20
40
50
30
60
50
40
70
60
0
10
5%
20
30
40
50
60
30 Newspaper
Insurance
Agency
70
# households
n=113
# households
n=91
15
SJAFCA
10
Real Estate
Agent
Neighbor Emerg
Svcs
internet
45%
31%
50
40
30
never
30
20
20
0
Precautionary measures
$40,000-59,999
$60,000-79,999
52%
“no”
Somewhat familiar
3% 12%
Never
R arely
Monthly
Weekly
S everal times a week
$100,000 or
$100,000
orgreater
greater
20%
23%
Most residents have a college education
14%
weekly
Highest level of Education Completed
Daily
87%
Precautionary measures include:
a disaster supply kit, evacuation plans,
built home on “elevated pad,”
or stored valuables on a second story.
No one reported purchasing a boat.
Education
Ethnicity
“somewhat”
3%
10%
23%
“If the last flood came in 1950,
the next one will come in 2050.”
high
high school
school
college
collegedegree
degree
high school
college degree
graduate degree
graduate
graduatedegree
degree
professional
professionaldegree
degree (MD/JD)
27%
27%
6% 20%1%
professional degree (MD/JD)
other
0
no
Ethnicity
37%
Ethnicity
6%
Yes
No
American Indian/Alaska
Indian/Alaska Native
Native
1%
23%
Asian
Black or African American
American
Native Hawaiian/Pacific
Hawaiian or otherIslander
Pacific Islander
American Indian/Alaska Native
36%
How long have you lived in your current home? (check one)
___0-2 years
___3-5 years
___6-8years
2.
How much longer do you estimate you will live in your current home? (check one)
___0-2 years
___3-5 years
___6-10years
___11-20years ___more than 20 years
3.
How long have you lived in the Stockton area? (check one)
___0-2 years
___3-5 years
___6-10years
___11-20years
4.
Do you rent your home, own it, or some other arrangement? (check one)
___Rent
___Own
___Other (please explain)________________________________________________
If you OWN your home, do you have a fixed mortgage? (check one)
5.
___more than 20 years
___Yes
___No
What are the five most important reasons you chose to purchase (or rent) your home? (please rank on a scale from 1
being the most important, 5 being the least important)
___Quality of the schools
___Close to work
___Close to the family
___Low price compared to similar houses elsewhere
___Always lived in the Delta region
___Close to the river
___Character of area (eg; environment, landscape, etc)
___Architectural style of home
___Other (please explain)______________________________________________________________________________
6.
Do you have flood insurance? (check one)
___Yes
___No
7.
Do you consider your property to be at high, medium, or low risk of flooding? (check one)
___High
___Medium
___Low
8.
Have you ever experienced flooding? (check all that apply)
___In your past residence
___In your current residence
___In a temporary residence (ie, on vacation)
___No
Policy
•Acknowledge land behind levees as ‘ in the floodplain’
•Map residual risk: larger storms and failures.
•Increase insurance rates to reflect actuarial rates.
•Mandatory insurance up to 500-year floodplain.
•Real estate disclosure.
Given an increased likelihood of flooding due to climate change, the
uncertainty behind science used to determine how safe is “safe enough,” and that
residents are moving into floodplains unaware of the risk, it is time to ask another
question: Does urban development belong in floodplains?
Black or African American
36%
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander
Hispanic/Latino
10%
10%
5%
19%
White
Hispanic
Hispanic/Latino
White
Other Race
Other Race
94% of residents own their home
5%
CAUTION! This area protected by levee
•Neighborhood design:
high water markers on lamp posts
evacuation signs on levees
•Educational brochures for mailbox, library, city hall
•interactive online survey to precautionary steps for respondent,
tool for emergency planning
Asian
“Had I known prior to purchase that this house was
in a 100-year floodplain, I would not have bought it. “
“The levees around my home have been upgraded by
the developer. We have levees on three sides of the development”
“Although we are in a possible flood zone, risk here is minimal.”
1.
other
other
The neighborhood is ethnically mixed
13%
yes
Thank you very much for your participation in this survey! When
you are finished, please place the questionnaire in the enclosed selfaddressed envelope and drop it in the mail. Any question you would
prefer not to answer may be left blank. Please attach additional pages
if needed. For any clarification, please email me at [email protected]
Thank you very much.
$100,000 or greater
$80,000-99,999
$80,000-99,999
Not familiar
10
$80,000-99,999
Yes, defined incorrectly
10%
10
$60,000-79,999
$60,000-79,999
12%
“There is always a risk of flooding from the levee breaking.
The correct way of addressing flood hazard is to never allow
building in risk prone areas.”
80
20
No
$20,000-39,999
23%
40
Yes
Yes, defined correctly
37%
60
yes no
$40,000-59,999
$40,000-59,999
45%
“Levees were made protect us for 100 years.”
100100
%
20 %
$0-19,999
monthly
20
$20,000-39,999
$20,000-39,999
13%
Highest level of Education Completed
“yes, “
defined
incorrectly
40
0
Preparedness
40
$0-19,999
$0-19,999
5%
7 households spoke with a real estate agent about flooding.
“We specifically asked if our area was in a floodplain and were told that it was not.”
60
Income
5%
0
60% have not been informed
80
Income
3% “yes,” defined correctly
50
0
80 %
Most households earn more than $80,000/yr
60
5
100100
%
Do residents understand the “100-year flood”?
rarely
60
20
Flood insurance
13%
70
Number of Hous eholds (N=113)
25
How often do you hear about flooding?
•Follow up with current sample: understand the WHY?
•Repeat survey in other flood-prone communities.
•What can we learn from cities that have experienced flooding for years?
Public Awareness Campaign
Demographic information
If informed, source of risk information?
What do YOU think about flood risk in Stockton?
If you answered YES, when was it? (write in date/year)________________________________________________________
What happened? (please explain) _________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Flood-related information
How many households have been
informed of their flood risk?
“I need information. This opened my eyes. “
70
5%
# households n=114
# households n=114
“Just lower level at most, I’d think. Six inches at best, I’d think.”
“Landscape damage and dirt, rock washed away.”
* 32 residents “unsure”
No Risk
V ery
40
“Gone...everything. Total loss.”
High Risk
not at all
somewhat confident
s omewhat confident
concerned
roof
not at all confident
High Risk
concerned
s omewhat
confident
not at all confident
very concerned
not at all
Residents perception of inundation level and likely consequences from a levee break
Confidence in levee protection
Level of concern about property flooding
Perceived level of flood risk
(68 % fixed interest rate)
19%
“it is my understanding that my area is not a flood zone and that the levees have been reinforced in the 1980s.”
“We’re pretty insulated and inland I can’t imagine that we would sustain much flood damage.’
unprepared
“ I assume the levees around my home are in great shape, but I wish I knew for sure. Where can I find this info?”
“I’m a owner-operator (truck driver) in construction. One year ago I was bringing dirt to a levee on 8-mile road. The dirt was, in my mind, “not good.” It was sand. In the event of a break in the levee, sand will wash away.”