Comments
Description
Transcript
¯ Before the Flood:
Before the Flood: Misperception of flood risk in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta ¯ Yolo Sacramento Sacramento Solano San Joaquin Hamburg, MS 1927 Great Flood 1993 New Orleans, LA 2005 Cedar Rapids, IA 2008 Fargo, ND 2009 San Joaquin County, California Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the United States Spanos Park West Despite national policy aimed at reducing risk Stockton Antioch • flood damages are rising • flood risk is increasing • policy encourages residents to take uninformed risks: move into floodplains without hazard warning 1.8 million people in the Central Valley rely on levees for flood protection. (DWR 2008) Contra Costa The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta People believe a levee removes all risk. Alameda The Delta Given flooding is likely to increase in future due to climate change, and rapid floodplain urbanization puts more people at risk without their knowledge, this prompts a step back. Stanislaus Data source: DWR, California Energy Commission 24 mile primary zone urban areas secondary zone natural gas and electricity lines water freeways 0 neighborhood Living with levees: do residents understand their real risk? Residual Risk from larger floods is 26% over 30 years •Islands below sea-level •1,100 miles of aging levees vulnerable to earthquake •Population: 3.5 million 7.5 million by 2050 •More than 160 levee failures in last 100 years Water temperature and hypothermia in the Delta Temperature (Farenheit) 100 Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans 90 80 90 F Residual Risk safe 70 unsafe 60 Sea level rise The Delta* 49 F 50 40 30 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Time of exposure ( hours) 10 Time of exposure until exhaustion/unconsciousness due to hypothermia (hours) 0 Sacramento, American, and San Joaquin *The Rivers are 47o F, 49o F, and 50o F respectively Subsidence Human developments , critical infrastructure, and ecological communities at risk. San Joaquin County: 30,800 units to be developed in high-risk areas Seepage 14 safety standard: 100-year flood Seismicity on January 1, 2009 *( The Sacramento, American, and San Joaquin Rivers are 47, 49, and 50 d. F respectively) Behavior is tied directly to perception. Those who are aware of a risk are more likely to take precaution and behave differently during a flood. Motoyoshi 2006 Jessica Ludy, UCOWR 2009: [email protected] 2210000 FT JS1156 DA NU CT BE BER LANIE R LN MOMO CT RYE S DR SA AL M CI ANO R R VE LN NA D IS A P P O IN Leve e JS1160 TMEN T S LO 2 UM N ES D R Levee BEAR CREEK PIXLEY SLOUGH UGH ZONE A 42 12000mN ZONE AE PPO EN IN T M Road OUG T SL (EL 9) H W RINDGE RD evee on L CITY OF STOCKTON JS1161 City of Stockton 060302 Levee D IS A SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY ZONE A WARNING: AREA PROTECTED BY PROVISIONALLY ACCREDITED LE ACCREDITATION EXPIRES ON AUGUST 23, 2009. FOR EXPLANATION, SEE THE NOTES TO USERS. ZONE X MOSHER SLOUGH San Joaquin County Unincorporated Areas 060299 Levee Canal ZONE A ZONE AE Flood Insurance Rate Map Ca na l zone AE zone X RT EE NM ILE SL OU Levee JOINS PANEL 0315 JOINS PANEL 0290 JS1162 FO U Contact the FEMA Map Service Center at 1-800-358-9616 for information on available products associated with this FIRM. Available products may include previously issued Letters of Map Change, a Flood Insurance Study report, and/or digital versions of this map. The FEMA Map Service Center may also be reached by Fax at 1-800-358-9620 and their website at http://www.msc.fema.gov/. Source: FEMA 2008 42 10000mN Spanos Park West GH Le ve e Ca nal Flood maps JS1163 Road on Levee ZONE AE (EL 9) 2195000 FT Levee WARNING: This map contains levees, dikes, or other structures that have been provisionally accredited and mapped as providing protection from the 1-percent– annual-chance flood. To maintain accreditation, the levee owner or community is required to submit documentation necessary to comply with 44 CFR Section 65.10 by the date shown on the map panel. Because of the risk of overtopping or failure of the structure, communities should take proper precautions to protect lives and minimize damages in these areas, such as issuing an evacuation plan and encouraging property owners to purchase flood insurance. 11000mN (EL 9) Please refer to the separately printed Map Index for an overview map of the county showing the layout of map panels; community map repository addresses; and a Listing of Communities table containing National Flood Insurance Program dates for each community as well as a listing of the panels on which each community is located. Insurance required on properties with federally backed mortgages 42 Levee 2200000 FT If you have questions about this map or questions concerning the National Flood Insurance Program in general, please call 1- 877- FEMA MAP (1-877-336-2627) or visit the FEMA website at http://www.fema.gov/. •Don’t show areas that will flood when levee breaks or overtops. •Largely inaccurate- not geo-referenced, updated with urbanization or sedimentation. •Give perception of “safe” vs “unsafe”... 42 09000mN e ve Le Rate determined by SFHA and flood insurance rate map (FIRM) Ca na l FIVEMILE SLOUGH ZONE AE (EL 9) ZONE AE JS1164 ES IL LO 2190000 FT Lev e e RT NM EE (EL 9) H UG Insurance rates JS1165 W e Lev RI N DG ER City of Stockton 060302 ON Y KT NT OC S T C OU OF N UI TY CI AQ JO N SA U FO (Lichtenberg 1994) COS 5 IR E C N M MOK ELU NA 3 AS ADE DR P 1 l na Ca Criticisms of the NFIP: a “moral hazard” SPAULDING LN e ve Le Corporate limits shown on this map are based on the best data available at the time of publication. Because changes due to annexations or de-annexations may have occurred after this map was published, map users should contact appropriate community officials to verify current corporate limit locations. No new development within SFHA Existing structures: building standards Requires elevating above base flood heights IEP ER BIC O 2205000 FT KEY TO NUMBERED STREETS 1.....HEAVENCREST CT 2.....CASTLEBROOK CT 3.....PENNY LN 4.....NAVARRO PL 5.....MIRROR PL 6.....REFLECTION LN 7.....SHAVER CT 8.....PYRAMID DR 9.....PYRAMID LN 10.....MIRAMONTE WAY 11.....NETTLE WAY 4 NATOMA CIR HAVENCREST CIR Leve e 13000mN 10 FEMA delineates the 100-year floodplain called: Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA) BEARDSLEY LN GLADSTONE DR 6 To obtain current elevation, description, and/or location information for bench marks shown on this map, please contact the Information Services Branch of the National Geodetic Survey at (301) 713-3242, or visit their website at http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/. Flood insurance 7 42 BRITTON AVE SUNBIRD WAY ZONE AE This map reflects more detailed and up-to-date stream channel configurations than those shown on the previous FIRM for this jurisdiction. The floodplains and floodways that were transferred from the previous FIRM may have been adjusted to conform to these new stream channel configurations. As a result, the Flood Profiles and Floodway Data tables in the Flood Insurance Study report (which contains authoritative hydraulic data) may reflect stream channel distances that differ from what is shown on this map. Floodplain management DN RU N RIO BLANCO RD The projection used in the preparation of this map was Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 10N. The horizontal datum was NAD83, GRS80 spheroid. Differences in datum, spheroid, projection or UTM zones used in the production of FIRMs for adjacent jurisdictions may result in slight positional differences in map features across jurisdiction boundaries. These differences do not affect the accuracy of this FIRM. MELONES WAY City of Stockton 060302 JS1157 Base map information shown on this FIRM was derived from multiple sources. This information was compiled from the U.S. Geological Survey, 1989, National Geodetic Survey, 2002, City of Lathrop, 1997, City of Manteca, Dept. of Public Works, 2001, City of Ripon, 2002, Cities of Stockton and Lodi, 2006, and San Joaquin County, 2006. Additional information was photogrammetrically compiled at a scale of 1:12,000 from U.S. Geological Survey aerial photography dated 1989, 1993 and 2002. Flood mapping LAKEMORE LN Levee BISHOP CUT Road on Levee CRESTVIEW CIR RUBICON CT 8 DANUBE WAY E PIK ITY (EL 10) 9 DR NOYO LN COPCO LN ZONE AE S EY HENSHAW DR Denial TY OU N IN C A QU ON T O K J T OC SAN OF S CITY NGS Information Services NOAA, N/NGS12 National Geodetic Survey, SSMC-3, #9202 1315 East-West Highway Silver Spring, Maryland 20910-3282 (301) 713-3242 National Flood Insurance Program ES CLARKS FORK CIR LOKI LN OLIVER DR WAY T INA LN 10 N TRI SCOTT CREEK DR KING ISLAND Certain areas not in Special Flood Hazard Areas may be protected by flood control structures. Refer to Section 2.4 "Flood Protection Measures" of the Flood Insurance Study report for information on flood control structures in this jurisdiction. Flood elevations on this map are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. These flood elevations must be compared to structure and ground elevations referenced to the same vertical datum. For information regarding conversion between the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 and the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, visit the National Geodetic Survey website at http://www.ngs.noaa.gov or contact the National Geodetic Survey at the following address: ASBURY WISHON DR Benefits ARROWOOD CT ZONE X 12 MIMIR CIR RIDGEVIEW CIR 11 9 PT= 1 - (1- PF ) “100- Year Flood” n W EIGHT MILE RD R CO Misunderstanding probability and terminology ANTLER CT W EIGHT MILE RD NN HE Media ZONE X MERRIT DR Coastal Base Flood Elevations shown on this map apply only landward of 0.0' North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). Users of this FIRM should be aware that coastal flood elevations are also provided in the Summary of Stillwater Elevations table in the Flood Insurance Study Report for this jurisdiction. Elevations shown in the Summary of Stillwater Elevations table should be used for construction, and/or floodplain management purposes when they are higher than the elevations shown on this FIRM. Boundaries of the floodways were computed at cross sections and interpolated between cross sections. The floodways were based on hydraulic considerations with regard to requirements of the National Flood Insurance Program. Floodway widths and other pertinent floodway data are provided in the Flood Insurance Study report for this jurisdiction. Trust in administration WARNING! THIS AREA IS SHOWN AS BEIN PROTECTED FROM THE 1-PERCENT-ANN CHANCE FLOOD HAZARD BY LEVEE, DIKE OTHER STRUCTURE. OVERTOPPING OR FAILURE OF THIS STRUCTURE IS POSSIB WHICH COULD RESULT IN DESTRUCTIVE ELEVATIONS AND HIGH-VELOCITY FLOODWATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE TH LARGE FLOODS WILL OCCUR THAT ARE GREATER THAN THE LEVEL OF PROTECT PROVIDED BY THE LEVEE. COMMUNITIES SHOULD ISSUE EVACUATION PLANS AND ENCOURAGE PROPERTY OWNERS BEHIN THESE STRUCTURES TO PURCHASE FLOOD INSURANCE, EVEN IF THE STRUC IS CURRENTLY SHOWN AS PROVIDING PROTECTION FOR THE 1-PERCENT-ANNU CHANCE FLOOD. WESTCHESTER CIR ARROWOOD DR Presence of structures 121º 26' 15" 38º 03' 45" SILVER OAK CIR Flood Risk Perception Factors Experience 121º 22' 30" 38º 03' 45" JOINS PANEL 0285 l na Ca To obtain more detailed information in areas where Base Flood Elevations (BFEs) and/or floodways have been determined, users are encouraged to consult the Flood Profiles and Floodway Data and/or Summary of Stillwater Elevations tables contained within the Flood Insurance Study (FIS) report that accompanies this FIRM. Users should be aware that BFEs shown on the FIRM represent rounded whole-foot elevations. These BFEs are intended for flood insurance rating purposes only and should not be used as the sole source of flood elevation information. Accordingly, flood elevation data presented in the FIS report should be utilized in conjunction with the FIRM for purposes of construction and/or floodplain management. 6305000 FT 6300000 FT 6295000 FT N STEFANI RD Before the Flood: Risk perception and the National Flood Insurance Program The NFIP and uninformed risk NOTES TO USERS This map is for use in administering the National Flood Insurance Program. It does not necessarily identify all areas subject to flooding, particularly from local drainage sources of small size. The community map repository should be consulted for possible updated or additional flood hazard information. D 42 08000mN e •Too low or subsidized and not required behind levees. • Therefore, land is cheap, not reflecting true negative value. PRELIMINARY 38º 00' 00" 121º 26' 15" 38º 00' 00" 121º 22' 30" JOINS PANEL 0435 06 000m 38 E 06 39000mE 06 40000mE 06 41000mE 06 42000mE Uninformed “experts” Levee construction encourages growth, increasing damages during a flood, which counteracts the purpose of the levee •Make important decisions based on a “line drawn in the sand” uncertainty, and incomplete information. Political pressure •Decision-makers, engineers, emergency planners: fear of depressing home prices. if encourage insurance or protection, it appears levees aren’t safe, that authorities are not doing their job. •Doesn’t account for residual risk and omits people from the economic analysis •‘100-year flood’ standard is uncertain, inadequate, misunderstood Legend Data source: FEMA 1996 and Westoff 2007 500-year floodplain 100-year Floodplain (FEMA) 500-year Floodplain (FEMA) 100-year floodplain 0 3 6 12 18 Miles 24 • what experts define as “safe” or “unsafe” is based on a “line in the sand” • we lack sufficient historical data to accurately predict the true 100-year flood • 25% of flood insurance claims come from areas “outside” the 100 year floodplain •Development is encouraged behind levees for an increased tax-base and assessment fee to fund levee maintenance. “Out of the floodplain” No insurance required No building restrictions Source: DWR 2004 source: maps.live.com 2009 source: maps.live.com 2009 100-year floodplain Most residents believe they would not be allowed to live behind a levee if it were not safe! (Association of State Floodplain Managers, 2008) “ In the floodplain” No new development Insurance required Must elevate buildings Before the Flood: Spanos Park West, Stockton, California Methods Delta Visits Spanos Park West source: panoramio.com Built in 2000 A.G. Spanos Company Sampling. Excel, random generator, 500 of 1284 Survey and method review Units: 1284 Average lot size: 7000 ft2 Price: $200,000-$999,995 Foreclosures: 10% Reviewed by Disaster Management practitioners, planners, academics Bear Creek Bear Creek Levee Bear Creek Levee: Built 1870, finished 1909 Recertified 2006 Tidal flux: 6 feet Mailing Contents What do YOU think about flood risk in Stockton? College of Environmental Design Thank you very much for your participation in this survey! When you are finished, please place the questionnaire in the enclosed selfaddressed envelope and drop it in the mail. Any question you would prefer not to answer may be left blank. Please attach additional pages if needed. For any clarification, please email me at [email protected] Thank you very much. L AN DS CAPE AR CHITE CTU RE AN D EN VI RO NMENT AL PLA NNI NG University of California, Berkeley 202 Wurster Hall #2000 Berkeley, California 94720-2000 phone 510.643-9335 fax 510-643-6166 Dear Spanos Park West Resident, Bear Creek Levee January 5th, 2009 I am writing to invite you to participate in an important research study on flood risk and perception in San Joaquin County. My name is Jessica Ludy and I am a Master’s degree candidate at the University of California, Berkeley. Your household has been randomly selected to fill out the enclosed survey which asks you to share your experiences and thoughts about living in this area. Your responses are very valuable and will be useful in helping improve flood planning and policies in California. +10 If you return this survey, you can be automatically entered in a raffle for $100. If you choose to participate, you need to: -2 feet Bear Creek sea-level -4 low tide Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in questions on the survey that you do not wish to answer. Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all If you have any questions or comments about this study or the questionnaire, I would be happy to talk addresses in your neighborhood. with you. My email address is [email protected]. You may also contact my department at the If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to improve planning. If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please Thank you in advance for your help, and Happy New Year. accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to improve planning. If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected] If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected] Houses built to levees edge 10 30 50 70 -10 90 How long have you lived in the Stockton area? (check one) ___0-2 years ___3-5 years ___6-10years ___11-20years 5. Master’s Candidate University of California, Berkeley Jessica Ludy Master’s Degree Candidate Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning Univeristy of California, Berkeley January 15, 2009 January 15, 2009 Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all addresses in your neighborhood. Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all addresses in your neighborhood. If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to improve planning. If you have already completed and returned the questionnaire to me, please accept my sincere thanks! If not, please do so today. I am especially grateful for your help because it is only by asking people like you to share your opinions and experience that I can understand how people perceive ooding and how best to improve planning. If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected] If you did not receive a questionnaire, or if it was misplaced, please email me and I will get another one in the mail to you today. [email protected] Jessica Ludy Master’s Degree Candidate Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning Univeristy of California, Berkeley Jessica Ludy Master’s Degree Candidate Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning Univeristy of California, Berkeley Interstate 5 Do you rent your home, own it, or some other arrangement? (check one) ___Rent ___Own ___Other (please explain)________________________________________________ sea-level ___Yes ___No What are the five most important reasons you chose to purchase (or rent) your home? (please rank on a scale from 1 being the most important, 5 being the least important) 6. Do you have flood insurance? (check one) ___Yes ___No 7. Do you consider your property to be at high, medium, or low risk of flooding? (check one) ___High ___Medium ___Low 8. Have you ever experienced flooding? (check all that apply) ___In your past residence ___In your current residence ___In a temporary residence (ie, on vacation) ___No Questionnaire Returns If you answered YES, when was it? (write in date/year)________________________________________________________ Dept. of Landscape Architecture What happened? (please explain) _________________________________________________________________________ University of California, Berkeley ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ 202 Wurster Hall MC #2000 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Berkeley, CA, 94720-2000 Timeline Delta and site visits +5 elevation ___more than 20 years ___Quality of the schools ___Close to work ___Close to the family ___Low price compared to similar houses elsewhere ___Always lived in the Delta region ___Close to the river ___Character of area (eg; environment, landscape, etc) ___Architectural style of home ___Other (please explain)______________________________________________________________________________ Jessica Ludy Data Entry -5 elevation 3. address on the letterhead. Eight-mile rd Typical street How much longer do you estimate you will live in your current home? (check one) ___0-2 years ___3-5 years ___6-10years ___11-20years ___more than 20 years Your responses will be kept as confidential as possible. Protecting your privacy is important and your name will never connect with your survey answers in any way. You may feel free to skip any Last week a questionnaire seeking your opinions and perceptions on ooding in Stockton was mailed to you. Your name was randomly chosen from a list of all addresses in your neighborhood. Jessica Ludy Master’s Degree Candidate Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning Univeristy of California, Berkeley 0 feet January 15, 2009 2. If you OWN your home, do you have a fixed mortgage? (check one) It is completely your choice to participate in the survey. However, your responses are very important. Any adult who is 18 years or older may complete the enclosed questionnaire. If for some reason you prefer not to respond, please let me know by returning the blank questionnaire in mail. January 15, 2009 How long have you lived in your current home? (check one) ___0-2 years ___3-5 years ___6-8years 4. -Fill out the enclosed survey- it usually takes about 15 minutes or so. -Mail it back in the enclosed envelope. No stamps are needed. -If you wish to participate in the raffle, please provide your contact information at the end of the survey in the space provided. +2 high tide 1. Winter and Spring Expert interviews and context April and May Public meeting June 12 Survey writing and revision April-November A.G. Spanos HQ Site selection criteria: Pre-test November 28 •New suburban development •Rapid growth region •Protected by 100-year recertified levee Typical house First response December 4 2009 First full mailing January 5 Reminder postcard January 15 Site visit with experts February 11 Second mailing February 21 Bear Creek Levee Bear Creek Levee Pump station Bishop Tract, Reclamation District 2042 source: KJeldsen, Sinnock, and Neudeck 2008 Last response collected March 7 Before the Flood: SURVEY RESULTS Conclusions •Despite a highly educated population, residents are unaware of their real flood risk. •Residents believe a “100-year” levee protects them from all flooding. •Residents are unprepared for a flood. 114 Usable responses, 24.2% response rate Risk perception/awareness not at all confident high High Risk moderate s omewhat confident Medium Risk Low Risk low no 0 0 10 10 somewhat concerned not at all concerned 0 20 20 10 30 30 # households 20 40 40 50 30 50 40 60 60 50 70 60 0 0 70 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 0 10 20 0 30 0 40 10 50 10 20 60 20 30 70 30 second floor s omewhat Medium Risk Income first floor concerned Low Risk yard very confident very confident No Risk # households n=113 n=109 confident confident Low Risk V ery very confident No Risk Medium Risk my property will not flood * 13 residents “unsure” 50 40 50 60 70 60 Recommendations “Damage incurred to carpet, the floors, walls, insulation in walls, electrical wiring, and possible foundation damage.” Further Study 0 10 0 20 10 30 20 40 50 30 60 50 40 70 60 0 10 5% 20 30 40 50 60 30 Newspaper Insurance Agency 70 # households n=113 # households n=91 15 SJAFCA 10 Real Estate Agent Neighbor Emerg Svcs internet 45% 31% 50 40 30 never 30 20 20 0 Precautionary measures $40,000-59,999 $60,000-79,999 52% “no” Somewhat familiar 3% 12% Never R arely Monthly Weekly S everal times a week $100,000 or $100,000 orgreater greater 20% 23% Most residents have a college education 14% weekly Highest level of Education Completed Daily 87% Precautionary measures include: a disaster supply kit, evacuation plans, built home on “elevated pad,” or stored valuables on a second story. No one reported purchasing a boat. Education Ethnicity “somewhat” 3% 10% 23% “If the last flood came in 1950, the next one will come in 2050.” high high school school college collegedegree degree high school college degree graduate degree graduate graduatedegree degree professional professionaldegree degree (MD/JD) 27% 27% 6% 20%1% professional degree (MD/JD) other 0 no Ethnicity 37% Ethnicity 6% Yes No American Indian/Alaska Indian/Alaska Native Native 1% 23% Asian Black or African American American Native Hawaiian/Pacific Hawaiian or otherIslander Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaska Native 36% How long have you lived in your current home? (check one) ___0-2 years ___3-5 years ___6-8years 2. How much longer do you estimate you will live in your current home? (check one) ___0-2 years ___3-5 years ___6-10years ___11-20years ___more than 20 years 3. How long have you lived in the Stockton area? (check one) ___0-2 years ___3-5 years ___6-10years ___11-20years 4. Do you rent your home, own it, or some other arrangement? (check one) ___Rent ___Own ___Other (please explain)________________________________________________ If you OWN your home, do you have a fixed mortgage? (check one) 5. ___more than 20 years ___Yes ___No What are the five most important reasons you chose to purchase (or rent) your home? (please rank on a scale from 1 being the most important, 5 being the least important) ___Quality of the schools ___Close to work ___Close to the family ___Low price compared to similar houses elsewhere ___Always lived in the Delta region ___Close to the river ___Character of area (eg; environment, landscape, etc) ___Architectural style of home ___Other (please explain)______________________________________________________________________________ 6. Do you have flood insurance? (check one) ___Yes ___No 7. Do you consider your property to be at high, medium, or low risk of flooding? (check one) ___High ___Medium ___Low 8. Have you ever experienced flooding? (check all that apply) ___In your past residence ___In your current residence ___In a temporary residence (ie, on vacation) ___No Policy •Acknowledge land behind levees as ‘ in the floodplain’ •Map residual risk: larger storms and failures. •Increase insurance rates to reflect actuarial rates. •Mandatory insurance up to 500-year floodplain. •Real estate disclosure. Given an increased likelihood of flooding due to climate change, the uncertainty behind science used to determine how safe is “safe enough,” and that residents are moving into floodplains unaware of the risk, it is time to ask another question: Does urban development belong in floodplains? Black or African American 36% Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander Hispanic/Latino 10% 10% 5% 19% White Hispanic Hispanic/Latino White Other Race Other Race 94% of residents own their home 5% CAUTION! This area protected by levee •Neighborhood design: high water markers on lamp posts evacuation signs on levees •Educational brochures for mailbox, library, city hall •interactive online survey to precautionary steps for respondent, tool for emergency planning Asian “Had I known prior to purchase that this house was in a 100-year floodplain, I would not have bought it. “ “The levees around my home have been upgraded by the developer. We have levees on three sides of the development” “Although we are in a possible flood zone, risk here is minimal.” 1. other other The neighborhood is ethnically mixed 13% yes Thank you very much for your participation in this survey! When you are finished, please place the questionnaire in the enclosed selfaddressed envelope and drop it in the mail. Any question you would prefer not to answer may be left blank. Please attach additional pages if needed. For any clarification, please email me at [email protected] Thank you very much. $100,000 or greater $80,000-99,999 $80,000-99,999 Not familiar 10 $80,000-99,999 Yes, defined incorrectly 10% 10 $60,000-79,999 $60,000-79,999 12% “There is always a risk of flooding from the levee breaking. The correct way of addressing flood hazard is to never allow building in risk prone areas.” 80 20 No $20,000-39,999 23% 40 Yes Yes, defined correctly 37% 60 yes no $40,000-59,999 $40,000-59,999 45% “Levees were made protect us for 100 years.” 100100 % 20 % $0-19,999 monthly 20 $20,000-39,999 $20,000-39,999 13% Highest level of Education Completed “yes, “ defined incorrectly 40 0 Preparedness 40 $0-19,999 $0-19,999 5% 7 households spoke with a real estate agent about flooding. “We specifically asked if our area was in a floodplain and were told that it was not.” 60 Income 5% 0 60% have not been informed 80 Income 3% “yes,” defined correctly 50 0 80 % Most households earn more than $80,000/yr 60 5 100100 % Do residents understand the “100-year flood”? rarely 60 20 Flood insurance 13% 70 Number of Hous eholds (N=113) 25 How often do you hear about flooding? •Follow up with current sample: understand the WHY? •Repeat survey in other flood-prone communities. •What can we learn from cities that have experienced flooding for years? Public Awareness Campaign Demographic information If informed, source of risk information? What do YOU think about flood risk in Stockton? If you answered YES, when was it? (write in date/year)________________________________________________________ What happened? (please explain) _________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Flood-related information How many households have been informed of their flood risk? “I need information. This opened my eyes. “ 70 5% # households n=114 # households n=114 “Just lower level at most, I’d think. Six inches at best, I’d think.” “Landscape damage and dirt, rock washed away.” * 32 residents “unsure” No Risk V ery 40 “Gone...everything. Total loss.” High Risk not at all somewhat confident s omewhat confident concerned roof not at all confident High Risk concerned s omewhat confident not at all confident very concerned not at all Residents perception of inundation level and likely consequences from a levee break Confidence in levee protection Level of concern about property flooding Perceived level of flood risk (68 % fixed interest rate) 19% “it is my understanding that my area is not a flood zone and that the levees have been reinforced in the 1980s.” “We’re pretty insulated and inland I can’t imagine that we would sustain much flood damage.’ unprepared “ I assume the levees around my home are in great shape, but I wish I knew for sure. Where can I find this info?” “I’m a owner-operator (truck driver) in construction. One year ago I was bringing dirt to a levee on 8-mile road. The dirt was, in my mind, “not good.” It was sand. In the event of a break in the levee, sand will wash away.”