WestMap The Western Climate Mapping Initiative

WestMap
The Western Climate Mapping Initiative
Western Climate Mapping Consortium
Consortium Co-Chairs:
Andrew Comrie, University of Arizona
Kelly Redmond, Desert Research Institute and Western Regional Climate Center
Chris Daly, Oregon State University
Organizing Membership:
University of Arizona – Climate Assessment of the Southwest (UA)
Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC)
Spatial Climate Analysis Service – Oregon State University (OSU)
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)
Scripps Institution of Oceanography – California Applications Program (Scripps/CAP)
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC)
WestMap Aims
• 50-100 years, 1 km gridded, monthly climate
observations, continuously updated
• Provide to data users & stakeholders:
– online analysis tools
– associated error/accuracy estimates
– educational resources
Background
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Very high stakeholder demand for these kinds of climate data
– noted by the NOAA-funded Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA)
projects across the west (e.g., CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the
Southwest)
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Main WestMap focus on a western US domain
– Large demand and complex climate mapping
challenges in the West
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fine scale topographic variations
extensive high elevation mountain ranges
deserts
coastal boundary regions
interior valleys
rain shadows
data availability
poor station distribution
May evolve to:
– national/international
– northern Mexico and western Canada
– daily data, but not initially
Courtesy Tim Owen, NCDC
Product Applications
• Five key areas
– drought mitigation/monitoring, e.g.:
• complement and enhance developing drought management
initiatives and monitoring programs
• in turn, these activities will help future mapping through identifying
gaps/problems in the present data sets
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climate variability
water management
global change modeling/assessment
forecasts (initial conditions) and downscaling of forecasts (limits
of predictability, model verification)
• WestMap impact will be very wide
– Very large number of likely users: researchers, decisionmakers, resource mgrs, etc.
– integral climate mapping web interface for ease of access
Some selected potential users of
WestMap data
Stakeholder
Data Applications
Data Needs
USDA/NRSC
Water management; Drought monitoring; Water Supply Forecasting;
SNOTEL
Precipitation, min & max T, snow water
equivalent
SCRIPPS-CAP
Sub-regional scale climate (seasonal-interannual) forecast models
Precipitation, min & max T
Dept of Interior, BLM,
Forest Service, Park
Service
Fire Management and Risk Assessment
Precipitation, min & max T, snow water
equivalent;
Soil moisture
Bureau of Reclamation
Flood Risk Assessment; Streamflow Analysis
Precipitation and precipitation frequency
USGS
Streamflow analyses
Precipitation and temperature
WGA
Drought Monitoring
Lengthy history of Precipitation and
temperature; educational resources
NOAA/CPC
Climate forecasts
Gridded precip, temperature
NOAA/NWS
Graphical Forecast
Historical time series, near real time,
frequency, extreme events
NOAA/CDC
Downscale climate forecasts; objective hindcasts and ensembles
Gridded precip and temperature
LDAS program
Precipitation
1 km gridded precip and temperature
RISA stakeholders
Fire management, water and power, public health, cooperative
extension, ranching, agriculture
Precip, Temperature, soil moisture, snow
water equivalent, etc.; educational resources
University
Climate variability analyses and reconstruction of paleo histories;
regional impacts of climate; climate-social impacts/informational
needs
Everything available
K-12 and Community
Education
Local climate variability and basic climate curriculum
Precipitation and temperature; educational
resources
3 Major WestMap Components
Data
Development
& Operations
better access and
tools; increased
dataset utility
algorithm
improvements
and data updates
Data Access,
Visualization
& Educational
Resources
Error
Assessments,
Data Analyses
& Diagnostics
improved
online tools and
understanding of
data uncertainty
WestMap Data Development
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PRISM (Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model)
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WestMap intends to take PRISM data one step further to create a “surface data reanalysis”
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developed by Spatial Climate Analysis Services / Oregon Climate Services at Oregon State University
uses point data, a digital elevation model (DEM), and other spatial datasets to generate gridded estimates of
annual, monthly, and event based climatic parameters
a coordinated set of rules, decisions, and calculations designed to approximate the decision-making
processes that an expert operational climatologist would make in creating a climate map
currently has the most advanced algorithms for fine-scale mapping of climate data
QA via quantitative measures and expert review
recently used to create a 4km scale gridded data set of monthly minimum temperature, maximum
temperature, and precipitation for the conterminous United States covering the period of 1895-2001
official updates of the Climate Atlas of the United States
USDA precipitation and temperature maps for all fifty states
analogous to the NCEP reanalysis projects and related interfaces
1 km-scale monthly surface climate data
major part of the instrumental record (50 to 100 years, depending on data constraints)
provide error estimation and quality assessment of the resulting data surfaces
update the record with as close to “real time data” as possible
Create the best available form of fine-scale climate data for mapping and monitoring
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in short, a fundamental climate data set with a multitude of uses
also enables generation of other derived quantities
will permit data to be aggregated into new user-defined polygons rather than climate divisions
spatially detailed time histories of climate data will enable a wide range of basic and applied research
PRISM Modeling Approach
Error & Accuracy Assessment
• Error/accuracy assessment is important but difficult
– e.g., data limitations at higher elevations require the use of any and all
data points for those levels, but this simultaneously constrains the
application of standard cross-validation techniques
– maps with the lowest overall errors not necessarily the most accurate,
when assessed with vegetation patterns, stream flow, expert review,
and other independent methods
• Will employ multiple quantitative measures and other expert and lay
review approaches to understand and communicate error
• Also important to understand and correct for sources of error
– error is both time- and space-dependent
• expect to encounter sources of modeling error manifesting themselves at
seasonal, interannual and decadal scales
• sources of error with spatial variability at local and regional scales
– will likely parallel those in the observed climate data record
– will need to tease apart those processes requiring representation in
improved versions of the modeling algorithms
Data Analyses & Diagnostics
• Investigations of patterns and process underlying
variability and error in the WestMap data will also enable
us to research a number of related complementary and
critical questions
• Examples:
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fine-scale data response to large-scale atmospheric processes
critical gaps in data coverage
episode monitoring applications (e.g., drought)
sub-regional climate variability
possible climate forecast model implementations of WestMap
data consistency versus accuracy
data assimilation and mapping
expert/lay perceptions of climate information and delivery
educational needs
Winter Precip & Anomalies
Data Access
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Primary user interface via WRCC (website, online tools, data downloads)
Data cost approach similar to federally-managed climate datasets
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Public-private collaboration
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online access at no cost to public sector government and educational users (“.gov” & “.edu”)
optional media (CD, tape, etc.) and large or special requests available at nominal cost
fee structure for other interested users (e.g., private sector)
users of free data cannot release them to third-parties
to circumvent the access restrictions
some PRISM data products are currently marketed
through a licensing agreement between OSU and a
private company, Climate Source, Inc.
this will remain the outlet for private sector data
delivery
will provide increased financial support for the
continued production of up to date climate maps for the
public and private sector, adding to the database over time
valuable way to continue WestMap growth after tools have
been developed and public funding enters a lower-level,
operational phase
WestMap data storage
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operationally stored at the Western Regional Climate Center
final archival storage at the National Climatic Data Center
Visualization
Tools
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Cannot overstate the crucial role of
visualization for data analysis
Online visualization tools are a cornerstone of
WestMap development
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WestMap will capitalize on these activities
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leading example: NOAA CDC’s online tools for
the NCEP reanalysis data set
provides ability to manipulate, map, and
associate data with other information (e.g.,
climate indices) in real time
greatly improves the accessibility of the data
for analysis and download by all categories of
users
core reason for the success and widespread
use of the reanalysis data
Similarly, WRCC has developed a variety of
online data plotting tools
development of specific new tools for spatial and temporal analysis
likely incorporation of WestMap data into above data analysis portal sites
Visualization tools will be developed from the outset
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Selected 4 km PRISM data are already publicly available
will form the initial dataset for development of WestMap visualization tools while the 1 km data
are being produced
• Animation
• Zoom
– pixels, polygons
• Time Plots
• Multi-panel display
Education/Outreach Resources
• WestMap-type data are intuitive and appealing to many
users
– especially because they are based on observational data
• But, there are important caveats to be communicated
– the data are nonetheless synthetic
– appropriate use is contingent upon understanding how they were
developed
• Also a need to provide educational & outreach resources
– for K-12, universities and broader stakeholders
– WestMap includes development of interactive educational
materials
– explain critical metadata, including caveats and error estimation
– information resources to enable meaningful data interpretation
and applications
WestMap Consortium Membership Roles
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Unique climate mapping needs & challenges of the West are the driving forces behind the
genesis of WestMap
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Consortium of institutions with extensive expertise and experience in western U.S.
climatological research
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will participate in data quality analyses and sub-regional scale climate variability research
using WestMap data to develop finer scale seasonal-annual climate forecasting efforts
broad experience and expertise in climate analyses and working with major resource decision-makers via CAP RISA
USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS)
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responsible for development, operation (production, quality control) and refinement of the 1 km PRISM data sets
continued supply of updated data grids via link to Climate Source, Inc.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Scripps)
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will host the user interface, data access & visualization engine
will continue to be a primary supplier of observed climate data to the OSU PRISM system
will maintain the stored WestMap data products and coordinate final archiving via links to NCDC
Oregon State University (OSU) Spatial Climate Analysis Service
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primary project coordination, in collaboration with other consortium members
stakeholder linkages, development of educational resources, aspects of data visualization, climate variability research, and
social science aspects of WestMap
extensive experience working with climate information and stakeholders through its RISA project, CLIMAS
Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC)
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also climate mapping techniques, social science of climate & impacts, information transfer to technical users and
stakeholders
University of Arizona (UA)
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therefore, WestMap is an initiative undertaken “by the West and for the West”
research partner through data evaluation and data application assessment
primary source of high elevation precipitation (SNOTEL) data for PRISM
stakeholder via drought monitoring, water management, and water-related forecasting responsibilities
long-time sponsor of PRISM product development.
NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC)
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development of data assimilation and online analysis tools for the WestMap data sets
quantitative data quality assessment, links to data assimilation in climate forecast applications
expertise and experience in the development of online user interface-application tools for accessing gridded climate data
WestMap Funding Strategy
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Build the WestMap idea, simultaneously obtain funding from a range of sources
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wide range of stakeholders and potential users
many do not have the budgetary resources to completely support such an initiative
thus, define as an initiative that will attract partial, leveraged funding for several sub-projects
obtain broad “buy-in” from multiple agencies / institutions
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investigating multiple sources of funding
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federal agencies (e.g., NSF, NOAA, NASA, USDA, USGS) and multi-agency initiatives, Western
Governor’s Association and/or Congressional funding, public-private enterprise programs, and others
given importance for western stakeholders, explore RISA resources
WestMap is a large effort that needs substantial financial support
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will better engage the climate data user community in funding a common data source
set of postdocs, programmers, and grad students across several institutions
ideally, 3-5 years of funding on the order of $200-500K+ per year
will support the core development and initial operational components of the initiative
Explore public-private partnership to support continued data production
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take advantage of lower level of reliable steady support
follows high-cost development phase
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costs of storing/serving established data sets could be partly
absorbed into regular operations
major future upgrades will still need conventional funding
WestMap Status
• Held an organizational planning meeting
– January 8-9, 2003, hosted by UA/CLIMAS
– established WestMap Consortium
– defined objectives of the WestMap initiative
• Initial efforts now officially underway
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consortium has begun looking for funding partners
Website coming soon
CDC lead on ESDIM proposal
PACLIM, Climate Diagnostics Workshop
Contacting agencies/program managers