AN UPDATE ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

AN UPDATE ON THE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
An internationally coordinated,
joint CLIVAR-GEWEX
process study aimed at improving
warm season precipitation
forecasts over North America.
Wayne Higgins, Tim Eichler, Marco Carrera, Wei Shi and the NAME SWG
29th CDPW, Madison, WI
NAME Homepage: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name
OUTLINE
 Define NAME Program
 NAME 2004 Field Campaign
 What was it?
 Where was it?
 Who participated?
 Where is the data?
 NAME Education Module
 4 Elements
Modeling Issues
 NAME Roadmap
 NOAA Climate Test Bed
 Summary
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)
HYPOTHESIS:
Topographic and
Sea-Land Influence
The NAMS provides a physical
basis for determining the degree
of predictability of warm season
precipitation over the region.
Intraseasonal
Variability
OBJECTIVES:
Better understanding and
simulation of:
Boundary
Forcing?
YEAR (2000+)
Planning
Preparations
Data Collection
Principal Research
Data Management
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
--------------|
---------------|
- - - - - - --------|
---------------------------------|
-----------------------------------------|
• warm season convective
processes in complex terrain
(TIER I);
• intraseasonal variability of
the monsoon (TIER II);
• response to oceanic and
continental boundary
conditions (TIER III);
• monsoon evolution and
variability (TIER I, II, III).
HOW IS NOAA
BENEFITTING FROM NAME?
 Enhanced Regional Observations
NAME 2004 delivered enhanced (and sustained) observations for
monitoring the North American monsoon system.
 Forecast/Warning Improvements
NAME modeling research is leveraging NAME 2004 enhanced
observations to accelerate progress towards improved warm season
precipitation forecasts (including drought outlooks).
 International Collaboration
The NAME Forecast Operations Centers (WFO TUS, SMN)
are fostering a two-way exchange of information,
technology and training between Weather Services.
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PARTICIPATING AGENCIES
 NOAA OGP
(Numerous Field Observations, including Aircraft and Ship;
Modeling and Diagnostic Studies)
NOAA NWS
(Radiosonde Observations; NWS-SMN Exchange Visits)
DOD/Army
(Radiosonde Observations)
NASA / THP and USDA / ARS
(Soil Moisture Experiment - SMEX04)
NSF GEO/ATM, Hydro; NCAR/ATD; NOAA/ ETL & AL
(Windprofiler and Radar Network)
WHAT WAS THE NAME 2004
FIELD CAMPAIGN?
The NAME 2004 Field
Campaign was an
unprecedented opportunity to
gather extensive atmospheric,
oceanic, and land-surface
observations in the core region
of the North American
Monsoon over NW Mexico, SW
United States, and adjacent
oceanic areas.
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NAME 2004
INSTRUMENT PLATFORMS
The NAME 2004 Field Campaign gathered data from
more than 20 different types of instrument platforms, including:
Surface Met Stations (84 in Mexico)
Radars (SMN, NCAR S-POL)
Wind Profilers (ISS’s)
Radiosondes / PIBALS
Raingauge Networks (Event Logging; Cooperative)
Aircraft (NOAA P-3)
Research Vessels (Altair and CICESE)
Satellite Data (JCSDA)
Soil Moisture Sensors & Remote Sensing
GPS Precipitable Water
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NAME 2004
SESSION 7
8:35-9:05
Preliminary results of the NCAR Integrated
Sounding System deployment in NAME
(R. Johnson, P. Ciesielski) - Windprofilers, GPS sondes
9:05-10:30
POSTER SESSION 3
NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation studies
10:30-11:00 Topographic dependence of rainfall over the SMO in
NW Mexico (D. Gochis et al.) - NERN
11:00-11:30 Evaluating sources of monsoon moisture (A. Douglas
and N. Novella)– Moisture sources; IOP’s
8
WHO WAS INVOLVED
IN NAME 2004?

The NAME 04 Field Campaign involved researchers from more than 30
universities, government laboratories and federal agencies in 4 countries
(United States, Mexico, Belize, Costa Rica).

The NAME Forecast Operations Centers (Tucson, AZ; Mazatlan, MX),
involved more than 40 forecasters (NWS, USAF, SMN, private, and retired),
at least 15 WFO’s and 4 NCEP Centers (CPC, HPC, SPS, TPC).

The NAME Science Working Group (responsible for implementing NAME
science) involves 19 senior scientists from the US, Mexico and Central
America

The NAME Project Office (UCAR/JOSS, Boulder, CO) provided
logistical, technical and administrative support services.
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NAME 2004
SCIENCE QUESTIONS
1. How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of California / west slopes of the
Sierra Madre Occidental related to the diurnal cycle of moisture and convection?
(low-level circulation)
2. What is the relationship between moisture transport and rainfall variability
(e.g. forcing of surge events; onset of monsoon details)?
(moisture transport and budget)
3. What is the typical life cycle of diurnal convective rainfall? Where along the western slope
of the SMO is convective development preferred?
(diurnal cycle)
These form a basis for the Climate Issues
addressed by NAME modeling activities
focused on seasonal-to-interannual prediction
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NAME 2004 MISSIONS
(PRE-EOP PLANNING)
NAME 2004 IOP Missions were separated into Aircraft-Related and Non
Aircraft-Related and ranked based on their relevance to NAME Science
Objectives and likelihood of success.
Aircraft-Related
Non Aircraft-Related
1. MEAN MOISTURE FLUX OVER TIER I
(6 flights; 42 hrs);
1. BASELINE MONSOON CONDITIONS;
2. STRUCTURE OF GOC LLJ (2 flights; 14 hrs) ;
2. GULF SURGES;
3. GENESIS / PROPAGATION OF GULF
SURGES (2 flights; 14 hrs);
3. SUPPRESSED MONSOON
CONDITIONS;
4. UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGHS;
4. ONSET OF THE MONSOON;
5. EVOLUTION OF LAND/SEA BREEZE, PBL
AND CONVECTION;
5. EASTERLY WAVES AND PLATEAU
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
6. MCS’s AND RESIDUALS:
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TIMELINES
FOR
TIMELINES FOR
NAME04 FACILITIES
NAME04 FACILITIES
1
1
23
1
6/1
JUNE
6/21
7/1
2
4
2
JULY
5
3
67
8
4
910
56 7
8/1
9/18
8 9
AUGUST
10
9/1
PRE-EOP
NOAA P-3
NCAR S-POL
NCAR ISS
EOP
P-3 FLIGHTS
R/V ALTAIR
FCST OP
IOP MISSIONS*
*Includes SMN, NWS, ISS, GLASS, Altair Soundings
1
12
NAME04 – IOP 1
DATES : 12Z 7 July – 12Z 10 July 2004
OBJECTIVES : To investigate monsoon onset in northern Tier 1 (Sonora and Arizona).
FACILITIES:
- Radiosondes: 4x - NWS, SMN, Altair, ISS sites except Loreto;
- ISS Profilers
- NOAA P-3 Missions (8 July) [moisture flux]
- NCAR S-Pol Radar (24hr operations from 18Z 8 July)
- Research Vessel Altair (leg 1)
SUMMARY:
- Captured the northward shift and onset of the monsoon into northern Tier 1.
- The onset corresponded with the northward movement of an upper level inverted trough
from SW of Baja towards central Baja, helping to initiate rainfall in Arizona.
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NAME04 – IOP 1 Highlights
Daily Precipitation (mm) – NAME Tier 1 : 7 –10 July 2004
Water vapor image depicting
upper-level inverted trough
12:24Z 8 July 2004
NAME04 – IOP 2
DATES : 00Z 12 July – 00Z 15 July 2004
OBJECTIVES : To investigate Tropical Cyclone - Gulf surge relationships.
FACILITIES:
- Radiosondes: 6x - SMN, Altair, GLASS (Loreto) and ISS (Los Mochis);
4x - NWS, ISS (Bahia Kino, Pto Penasco)
- ISS / ETL Profilers
- NOAA P-3 Missions (12 July) [surge genesis / moisture flux] & (13 July) [low-level jet];
- NCAR S-Pol Radar (24hr operations)
- Research Vessel Altair (leg 1)
SUMMARY:
- Day 1: Captured development of convection in the southern Gulf concurrent with the
passage of T.S. Blas to the south and west.
- Day 2: Captured development of MCS’s over the coastal plains of Sonora that produced
outflows over the Gulf that initiated a strong surge confined to the northern half of GOC. As
the surge moved northward it produced strong southerly winds at Yuma, blowing dust, an
increase in Td from the mid-50s to mid-70s, and convection in S. AZ.
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NAME04 – IOP 2 Highlights
Daily Precipitation (mm) – NAME Tier 1
Infrared Satellite Image Depicting
convection induced by northward
moving Gulf Surge
5:09Z 14 July 2004
Phoenix sounding shows significant
moistening in lower-levels
12Z 14 July 2004
Profiler Winds at Puerto Peñasco (top)
and Bahia Kino (bottom) depicting
northward progression of Gulf Surge
T.S. BLAS
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NAME04 – Summary of NOAA P-3 Activities
Mission
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Begin Time
End Time
(UTC)
(UTC)
1254 UTC
2005 UTC
8 July
1330 UTC
8 July
2030 UTC
12 July
12 July
1330 UTC
2100 UTC
13 July
13 July
1251 UTC
1751 UTC
18 July
1300 UTC
18 July
2100 UTC
22 July
1245 UTC
22 July
2050 UTC
23 July
1300 UTC
23 July
2045 UTC
24 July
1636 UTC
24 July
2331 UTC
29 July
1730 UTC
29 July
2300 UTC
2 August
1335 UTC
2 August
2135 UTC
3 August
3 August
Mission
Objective
Location of
Mission
IOP and
Duration
Southern Gulf of
California
IOP-1
Moisture Flux
Surge Genesis/
Moisture Flux
Southern Gulf of
California
Low-Level Jet
Central &
northern Gulf of
California
Moisture Flux
Southern Gulf of
California
Moisture Flux
Gulf of California
Low-Level Jet
Northern Gulf of
California
Moisture Flux
Northern Gulf of
California
Moisture Flux/ Sea
Breeze
Gulf of California
Moisture Flux/ Sea
Breeze
SMO/Sonora
Surge Genesis
Southern Gulf of
California
7.2 hrs
IOP-2
7.0 hrs
IOP-2
7.5 hrs
No IOP
5.0 hrs
IOP-3
8.0 hrs
No IOP
8.1 hrs
No IOP
7.75 hrs
IOP-4
6.92 hrs
No IOP
5.5 hrs
IOP-6
8.0 hrs
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/catalog
UCAR Office of Programs
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
SEASONAL SUMMARY (JJA 2004)
500-hPa heights (contour) and anomalies (shaded)
Precipitation anomalies (mm day -1) from CAMS-OPI
Summer 2004 was characterized by:
• A highly amplified 500 hPa height pattern (western ridge and eastern trough);
• Wetter-than-normal conditions over southern Tier 1, southern Plains, Gulf and East Coasts.
• An anomalous number of midlatitude transient features across NE Tier 1 (e.g. 6 backdoor
coldfronts), likely due to the amplified eastern trough.
NAME QPF FORECASTS – SUMMER 2004
• During NAME 04 there was a daily QPF Forecast Exercise coordinated
by WFO TUS (Erik Pytlak) and UAZ (Bob Maddox)
• Participants were asked to make categorical forecasts of QPF for each
of 9 zones in the US and Mexico and to identify causative feature(s).
• Forecasts Valid 12 UTC the next day to 12 UTC of day 2.
• There were 92 forecast days (JJA 04) and 35 participants (Table).
with 5 forecasters exceeding 50 forecasts and 1 forecaster making 87
forecasts.
• No fixed schedules; forecasters participated on their own time.
Number of Forecasts (F)
F < 10
10 ≤ F ≤ 30
30 ≤ F ≤ 50
F ≥ 50
Number of Forecasters
9
13
8
5
24
NAME QPF FORECASTS – SUMMER 2004
35 Forecasters
Participated
THANK YOU !!!
-Verification in progress
using a variety of
precipitation estimates
(gauge, satellite, multisensor, radar)
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NAME EDUCATION MODULE
SCOPE
NAME is compiling an Education Module for grades K-12 with
the following objectives:
1.
For students to recognize that there is a summer monsoon in the
Southwest and (especially for those that live there) it is relevant to
their lives because of the scarcity of water in the region.
2.
For students to realize that improved understanding of the
monsoon can lead to better rainfall forecasts, hence a better ability
to manage scarce water resources.
3.
Understanding the monsoon helps students to link weather and
climate, and provides an explanation for weather extremes (e.g.
floods, tornados, hail) that people care about.
26
NAME EDUCATION MODULE
4 ELEMENTS
 Teachers in the Field
 Monograph
 Curriculum, Unit and Lesson Plans
 Teacher Workshop Opportunities
27
NAME TEACHERS IN THE FIELD
NAME 04 sponsored two “Teachers in the Field”
Rhonda Feher is an elementary school teacher from Kayenta, Arizona. Her
school is located on the Navajo Nation reservation .
Josephina Hinojos, teaches high school biology and chemistry at Centro de
Estudios Tecnologicos in Sonora, Mexico.
NAME TIF’s traveled to the NAME FOC in Tucson, AZ and then on to
Mazatlan, MX to fly aboard the NOAA P-3 and visit the NCAR S-Pol radar.
NAME TIF’s kept daily logs (science, technology, culture) and prepared lesson
plans that coordinate with the science and that described their expeditions
(8-10 lessons; cross disciplinary; useful across grades; English and Spanish).
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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
MONOGRAPH
The North American Monsoon
Table of Contents
•What is a Monsoon?
•Why Predict a Monsoon?
•Is there a North American Monsoon?
•A Case Study
•A Typical Monsoon Day
•The Seasonal March
•Flavors of the Monsoon
•Variations Within the Monsoon Season
•Learning from the Past
•How does the Monsoon Affect Society?
•Monsoon Prediction
•How Predictions are Used
•Monsoon Safety
•Looking Ahead
•
The Monograph is posted on the NAME Web page:
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name
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NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
Curriculum, Unit and Lesson Plans
Steve Uyeda, a 9th Grade Earth Science Teacher at Sunnyside High School in
Tucson, is developing lesson plans (targeting 6th-9th grade) on the North American
monsoon addressing questions across four science strands:
Strand 1: weather
and climate
Strand 2: The
Strand 3: The
Strand 4 Monsoon
monsoon season and monsoon season and storm prediction
society
the natural
landscape
Question 1 When does
the rain fall in the U.S.
and Mexico?
Question 1: What part of
the regional economy
depends on the rainfall?
Question 1: What
animals and plants live
in monsoon regions?
Question 2: When does
the rain fall in the U.S.
and Mexico and how
much falls?
Question 2: How is this
part of the economy
related to precipitation
trends seen in Strand 1,
Question 4?
Question 2: What
adaptations allow these
organisms to live here?
Question 3: Why does
so much rain fall in the
summer monsoon?
Question 1: What
weather conditions
cause the monsoon
season?
Question 2: What
atmospheric conditions
cause monsoon storms?
Question 3: How do
agencies alert the public
about “dangerous”
monsoon storms?
Question 4: How has
this rainfall amount
changed over time?
30
MODELING AND DATA ASSIMILATION
NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation:
A Strategic Overview
 Results from NAME 04 are being used
to address climate issues aimed at
improved seasonal-to-interannual
precipitation prediction.
 NAME compiled a “White Paper” that
summarizes the strategy for
accelerating progress on the
fundamental modeling issues
pertaining to NAME science objectives
NAME Science Working Group*
June 2003
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name
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NAME MODELING ROADMAP
Poster Session 3
 Model and Diagnostic Activities
•
•
•
•
NAMAP: Simulations of 1990 monsoon
NAMAP2:
“
of 2004 monsoon
Diurnal Cycle Experiments (NASA, NCEP, GFDL)
Routine assessments of the NCEP CFS/GFS
P3.2 (Kim et al.)
P3.3 (Lee et al.)
P3.1 (Schemm et al.)
 Data Assimilation
•
•
NCEP NA climate analysis system – R-CDAS
NAME 2004 data impact studies
P3.8 (Mo et al)
P3.10 (Carrera et al.)
 Transition to Operations (NOAA Climate Test Bed)
Model and Forecast System Development
• NAME CPT
Experimental Prediction & Seasonal Forecasts
• Sensitivity to oceanic / continental bc’s (CFS/GFS/ETA) P3.1 (Schemm et al.)
P3.11 (Yang,Mitchell)
Climate Prediction Product Development and Applications
• North American seasonal forecasts
• North American drought monitor, hazards assessments
32
North American Monsoon
Assessment Project (NAMAP) goals
(Integrating Numerical Modeling into a Field Based Process Study)
a)
Identify and describe inter-model consistencies
and differences - suggest physical explanations for
differences
b)
Provide measurement targets for NAME 2004
c)
Motivate a set of baseline control simulations for
more focused research by each group
- Six participating groups
(4 regional models / 2 global models)
NAMAP: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
(1) All models simulate a summer precip maximum; the two global
models exhibit delayed monsoon onset (August instead of July);
(2) Huge uncertainties in the diurnal cycle of convection in the core
monsoon region;
(3) Surface quantities (T, LH, SH fluxes) are poorly constrained;
(4) Gulf of California low-level (slope?) jet is captured -- but only
weakly tied to precipitation?
NAMAP is well documented:
Gutzler et al. (2004) “NAMAP Atlas”– available from CPC
Gutzler et al. (2004) “BAMS Article – In Press
“See Poster for details.”
NAMAP2: GREATER FOCUS
(compared to NAMAP1)
• Simulations of the NAME 2004 period
• Precipitation (emphasizing diurnal cycle) in Tier 1
• Surface energy budget (land surface interactions)
• Comparative analysis of LLJs in Gulf of California and
Great Plains
• Integrate with NAME sustained observations
• Prediction component
AGCM Diurnal Cycle Experiments
(Schubert et al. 2004)
Obs
GFDL
NCEP
NASA
NARR
• AGCM’s have difficulty simulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation.
• Attempts to link the differences in precipitation to differences in CAPE suggest a
complicated relationship. It is important to understand the details of the
convection schemes (e.g. inhibition and trigger functions) as well as how the
schemes interact with the boundary layer.
AGCM Resolution Experiments
(Mo et al. 2004)
T126L28
T62L28
• Experiments were designed to determine the horizontal resolution needed in the
NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) to forecast realistic NAM precipitation.
• In long-term AMIP simulations, the T126 model simulates rainfall better than the
T62 model throughout the annual cycle, including the monsoon.
AGCM Soil Moisture Experiments
Schemm, et al (2003)
850-hPa wind 200-hPa streamlines (July-September)
Reanalysis 2
Climatological Soil Moisture
Analyzed Soil Moisture
EXPERIMENT: Ensembles of 10 / 6 month simulations (May-Oct 1979-2000) with
climatological (center) and analyzed (right) soil moisture IC’s using NCEP/GFS; May
IC’s.
CONCLUSION:The location of the monsoon anticyclone is sensitive to initialized soil
moisture.
38
NAME MILESTONES
• FY04 - Benchmark and assess global and regional model
performance (NAMAP)
• FY05 - Evaluate impact of data from NAME 2004 on
operational analyses
• FY06 - Assess global and regional model simulations of the
2004 North American monsoon (NAMAP2)
• FY07 - Evaluate impact of changes in model
parameterization schemes (NAME CPT)
• FY08 - Measure improvements in model simulations of
monsoon onset and variability
• FY09 - Implement recommended changes to operational
climate prediction systems to bring monsoon forecasts
online
CHALLENGES
• To strengthen linkages between modeling, data
assimilation and observational activities.
• To develop “Climate Process and modeling Team
(CPT)” efforts to accelerate model development and the
transition of model improvements to NOAA operational
climate forecasts.
THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED
Climate
Community
Climate
Test Bed
Research &
Development
NOAA
Climate
Forecast
Operations
Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into
improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.
CTB OBJECTIVES
• Assess scientific advances
- models, tools, data sets, observing systems
• Accelerate synthesis and implementation of advances for NOAA
operational climate forecasts
- consolidation of forecast tools; objective verification
• Develop new tools and applications in quasi-operational
environment
- multi-model ensembles and S/I tools
- agriculture, fire, energy, water resource applications
• Evaluate climate forecasts and products
42
CTB SCIENCE PRIORITIES
– Operational CFS/GFS assessments
– Multi-model ensembles
– Climate products and applications development
– Climate Process and modeling Team (CPT) interactions
– Climate reanalysis and data impact
– Advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. ecosystems; air chemistry; carbon
cycle; fisheries)
– Several of these are important for NAME
43
CTB STATUS
• Director (Wayne Higgins of CPC) and Deputy Director
(Hua Lu Pan of EMC) named
• Resource allocation ongoing (within NCEP)
• Additional resources being provided through NOAA Climate
Program Office (NCPO)
• CTB organizational teams (Oversight Board, Science
Advisory Board and Climate Science Teams) being organized.
44
NAME 2004 Data Analysis Meeting and
Seventh Meeting of the NAME Science Working Group (SWG-7)
Mexico City, MX, 9-11 March, 2005
•
Immediately follows the 8th VAMOS Panel Meeting (March 7-9, 2005).
•
Both the VAMOS and NAME meetings will be hosted by Servicio Meteorologico
Nacionale in Mexico City at the same venue.
•
A large post field phase meeting that will involve not only the field scientists that
collected the data but also those that can use it in analysis and modeling studies.
•
Program:
(1) NAME 2004 Overview
(2) NAME 2004 Field Observations
(3) Modeling and Diagnostic Studies
(4) Applications
46
SUMMARY
 NAME 2004 was a major field campaign scheduled during JJAS 2004,
with 10 IOP’s during the period.
 NAME 04 data is available on the JOSS/NAME field catalog:
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/catalog/
 NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation studies will continue for the
next several years.
 NAME will deliver:
• Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the North
American monsoon (includes sustained observations);
• More comprehensive understanding of North American summer
climate variability and predictability;
• Strengthened scientific collaboration across Pan-America;
• Measurably improved climate models that predict North
American summer precipitation months to seasons in advance.