Annual report 2014

Annual report 2014
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Mistra-SWECIA
Mistra-SWECIA is a multidisciplinary programme that develops research-based knowledge which is used to support decisions about
adaptation to climate change.
The researchers involved in the programme study how the climate is changing, the effects of climate change and potential strategies for adaptation to climate change.
Mistra-SWECIA builds on expertise from several research areas, including climatology, ecosystem science, economics, sociology and
political science, as well as close collaboration between decision-makers and others who are involved in the process of adaptation
to climate change.
Climate change is a reality and it is important to analyse the effects these changes will have on the environment and on society,
and investigate how we will be required to adapt our activities to the altered conditions. Mistra-SWECIA's research focuses on land
use and on the ways in which Swedish forests and forestry are affected by climate change and, more generally, how the effects of
climate change are relevant to those involved in forestry, agriculture and nature conservation.
Mistra-SWECIA is funded by the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra).
SWECIA stands for Swedish Research Programme on Climate, Impacts and Adaptation. The programme involves SMHI (The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute), SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute), Lund University and Stockholm University. It
started in 2008 and runs until 2015. SMHI is the programme host.
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Cover: The fire-stricken area, seen from above. Photo: Anna Friden, Västmanland County Administrative Board
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
contents
4.
A word from the Programme Director:
From global to regional
5. A word from the Chair of the Programme board:
Knowledge-sharing is a key issue
6. Climate-related risks and opportunities for agriculture and forestry businesses
9. Warmer climate increases opportunities for commercial vegetable farming
10. National survey of forestry professionals in Sweden
12. Climate adaptation discussions between forest owners and researchers
15. Forest owners' views on forest biomass for energy purposes
18. Sweden's forest industry and indirect climate impacts
20. Changed risk of extreme weather events in Sweden
24. Climate-adapted nature conservation in forest landscape
26. Greenhouse gas emissions and political power play
31. Dialogue on the IPCC's fifth Assessment Report
32. Budget
33. Organisation
34. Communication
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
3
A word from the Programme Director:
Photo: Kjell Gustavsson
From global to regional
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According to SMHI, 2014 was the warmest year in Sweden since regular temperature measurements started. Sweden was not unique in this regard; 2014 was an unusually warm year
around the world and the collated measurements indicate that 2014 was the warmest year in
record also in the global mean. Even higher temperatures are expected over the coming years
as climate change progresses. The short-term weather will continue to vary but over time,
climate warming will take weather-related variations to whole new levels. Here in Sweden,
what we are used to perceiving as extremely warm weather will become more common, extremely cold weather more rare, and we will have more intensive precipitation extremes.
The extent of climate change will dictate how large their effects will be globally, regionally and locally. Climate change and global and regional mitigation and adaptation efforts
will set the stage for climate efforts at local and sector-specific scales. So, as Mistra-SWECIA recognises, there are several entry points for climate adaptation.
During the year, Mistra-SWECIA has had extensive interaction with hands-on players in
forestry, agriculture and nature conservation. Some of the topics covered are climate change,
climate impacts and climate adaptation with regard to businesses, views of those involved on
the climate change issue and their need for knowledge, and how the preconditions for nature
conservation are affected by climate change. For instance, direct climate impacts will have a
direct effect on individual forest owners, with regard to their
forest's growth and vulnerability to damage, as in the devastating forest fire in Västmanland last August. Indirect impacts via
climate-related policies or climate impacts in other places, for
example international markets, are felt at several levels. Both
of these dimensions have been on the programme's agenda
this year. To be prepared for both challenges and possibilities,
knowledge about what is happening in the world around us is
needed as a basis for individual decisions.
2015 will be the eighth and final year of the programme.
Mistra-SWECIA's results from all previous years will now be
put together. The future will show the outcome of our research
and dialogue with practitioners and decision-makers.
Ma rk k u R u mmu k a i n e n
p rogr a mme d i r e c t o r M i st r a - S WECIA
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
A word from the Chair of the Programme Board:
Knowledge-sharing is a key issue
In last year's annual report, I expressed a hope that Mistra-SWECIA would bring about
more frequent creative meetings between researchers and users. Now, one year later, it is
pleasing to see that many meetings of that kind indeed have taken place. These meetings
have not only made it possible to share knowledge about research findings; they have also
been an opportunity for dialogue with users. Reality often turns out to be more complicated than we first think. When users’ experiences are brought together with researchers’ findings, important sharing of knowledge is achieved, which is an important component of
the long-term adaptation of Swedish forestry to climate change.
On occasions like these, when research on climate adaptation is being discussed, it is
crucial that the research is of high quality. Mistra-SWECIA's research has its roots in distinguished institutions in Sweden, and in other parts of the world, and Mistra-SWECIA’s meetings with different stakeholders gives an opportunity to discuss research from high-quality
institutions. This also applies when various stakeholders search for knowledge, for example
after experiencing extreme weather events. In those contexts, also the media looks for knowledge, as well as knowledgeable people who are able to provide insightful comments.
It is essential that Mistra-SWECIA makes the research findings that have been produced
over the years easily accessible by using a range of communicative tools that are available,
such as websites and different kinds of publications, but
also meetings where Mistra-SWECIA researchers can participate, in person, in the knowledge-sharing that is so essential for successful climate adaptation.
Bengt Holgersson
C h a i r ma n o f t h e B o a r d , M i st r a - S WECIA
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
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Text: Susanna Bruzell and Magnus Benzie
Businesses in the agricultural and forestry sectors are very
dependent on the weather and climate for stable production and
business. With climate change, businesses in the land use sector will
face both new possibilities and new challenges. However, for many
businesses, it is not clear in what way or to what extent climate
change will affect their business opportunities.
Climate-related risks and opportunities
for agriculture and forestry businesses
In the project A changing climate for business,
KRINOVA Incubator & Science Park, Mistra-SWECIA
and businesses in the land use sector have developed a
method for addressing climate-related risks and possibilities in a strategic way. The method is based on lessons
learned from previous work in England and Scotland.
Using businesses' production and supply chain as a
starting point, the focus has been on increasing the
businesses' resilience while at the same time exploiting
new opportunities. Using existing business goals as a
starting point, the participating companies have assessed
climate-related changes that can affect their areas of
business during the next 15-20 years. This is not a long
time in the context of climate but it is a long time in the
planning horizon of many businesses. On the basis of
supply chain and business goals, the companies have analysed how they have been affected by earlier weather-related events and how future climate and socio-economic
changes may affect their business operations.
By studying the entire supply chain, both direct
risks for production and indirect risks, such as disrupted deliveries, production costs, quality or
availability, have been identified and assessed. Countermeasures have been thought out and prioritized.
Some of the companies that took part in the project
discovered that climate change could also open up new
business opportunities.
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At the project's concluding workshop in October,
seven of the businesses shared the lessons they had
learned from the project. The businesses varied with
regard to size, business activities and form of ownership, but they all said the project had been a valuable
platform for detecting and discussing the consequences
of climate change with other companies from the same
sector. Some of the companies represented different
parts of the same supply chain and were therefore dependant on each other.
Identified consequences
Climate change is expected to bring about both negative and positive consequences for the agricultural
sector. KC Ranch and L&M Malshult, two businesses
in the livestock sector, pointed out the risk of more
outbreaks of disease and new kinds of diseases, at the
same time as drought and flooding could be problematic for feed supply and the way land can be used.
Access to grazing and winter fodder could be more
difficult as a result of both flooding and lack of water.
Findus and L&M Malshult identified possibilities for
new crops and a longer growing season. Maize was
pointed out as a crop that is being cultivated more and
more in Scania in recent years. The agriculture companies' conclusion was that southern Sweden is in a
good position for competition on future markets.
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Climate-related risks and opportunities for agriculture and forestry businesses
Scandinavian Aquasystems' fish farms are mainly at
risk of being afflicted by extreme weather events that
could damage buildings or energy and water supplies,
or cut off their premises. Since the business is under
development, the company is able to address some of
the identified climate-related risks even now.
The energy and bioenergy businesses can see that
climate change could bring about a greater demand for
green energy, but also entirely new demands may arise.
Hässleholm Miljö sees district cooling as a product
that could be in demand in the future, which would
open up new business opportunities, at the same time
as the demand for district heating could decrease. Salix
Energi Europa will continue to develop new varieties
and species of plants that will survive in new climate
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
conditions. At the same time, wetter and warmer
winters will have implications for the technical development of machinery.
The food styling company, På Fatet, believes that
as customers become more aware of climate and environment issues, there may be a growing demand for
eco-friendly food and På Fatet is going to adapt its
business concept to meet that demand. The project A
changing climate for business gave businesses a unique
opportunity to take part in a joint learning process in
order to develop new decision-making methods. This
initiative was unique in Sweden because of its focus
on risks in the supply chain and the mix of companies
that represented different parts of the supply chain. k
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Varmare klimat ökar möjligheterna för kommersiell grönsaksodling
"Climate adaptation was already an established issue for us, but it has gained wider
acceptance through our participation in the project A changing climate for business."
Enar Magnusson, Findus, senior advisor on agricultural issues.
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Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Text: Hanna Holm
Findus, with its head office located in Bjuv in the county of Scania,
was one of the companies that took part in the project A changing
climate for business. Enar Magnusson, senior advisor on agricultural
issues, participated in the project as Findus' representative.
Warmer climate increases opportunities for commercial vegetable farming
Climate change poses both threats and possibilities
for the food company Findus. An increased risk of extreme weather in the form of downpours and drought
means that Findus must sharpen its production by increasing its reserve capacity. At the same time, climate
change, together with new varieties of plants, has
­already extended the pea season by one week which
contributes to increased volumes. Findus also sees a
possibility of growing crops that require more heat,
e.g. green beans, on a large scale in Sweden in the
future. However, new crops require major investment
in new equipment. Enar Magnusson believes that
Findus can now approach that sort of investment with
more confidence and certainty after participating in
the project A changing climate for business.
A one-degree temperature rise
Using a normal year as a starting point, without any
extreme weather in the form of cloudbursts or heat
waves, if the annual average temperature went up by
one degree, that would mean the pea season would
be extended by about another four days which would
increase harvest volume, herbs and greens could be
harvested several times per season, and it would be
possible to grow crops like green beans, broccoli,
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Brussels sprouts, parsley root and celeriac in Scania.
However, the risks of damage by pests and fungi would
also increase with a higher average temperature.
To allow for the increased risk of heat waves and
drought, Findus can take measures such as avoiding
growing crops on dry, light soils, investing more
in plant varieties that are resistant to drought and
powdery mildew, and increasing their irrigation capacity. Findus is also investing in more freezer capacity
so as to have more flexibility and preparedness for a
short and intensive harvesting period. In order to minimise the damage caused during a wet year, Findus can
avoid growing crops on hard, loam soil which is at risk
of being flooded, drain and add lime to soils, and cultivate varieties that are resistant to disease.
To sum up, the farming areas that Findus uses in
southern Sweden would benefit from a warmer climate
while southern Europe would be disadvantaged, since
the cultivation boundary for a number of crops would
be moved northwards. Findus' competitiveness would
thereby be strengthened compared with competitors
in Europe. However, the risk of more frequent extreme
weather does mean that a higher reserve capacity is
required which is why Findus is currently planning a
cautious expansion of their operations. k
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Text: Gregor Vulturius, Anna Nordén and Anette Arvidsson
In 2014, Mistra-SWECIA conducted an extensive survey of forest
owners and forestry advisors in Sweden. The aim of the study was
to gain a more comprehensive picture of how foresters in Sweden
view climate change and adaptation. The survey asked about the
risks associated with climate change, views on different adaptation
measures, and the importance of having science-based information
for decision-making.
National survey of forestry
professionals in Sweden
The results from the survey show that almost one third
of forest owners and forestry advisors believe that
climate change will imply serious risks for forests. A
slightly lower number of professionals express concern
about climate change impacts on their own forests.
At the same time, more than a quarter believe that
climate change will affect Swedish forestry in a positive
way. Moreover, the survey shows that, in general, forestry professionals in Sweden are less concerned about
climate change than the general public.
The survey helps to explain why forest owners have
different views about the risks of climate change and
the use of adaptation measures. Results show that forestry owners who have recently experienced extreme
weather events are more aware of climate change.
Having knowledge and experience with risk mitigating
measures and believing that climate change is true are
also factors that are correlated with higher awareness
about climate change and higher willingness to take
adaptation measures.
Interestingly, the survey also shows that forest
owners and forestry advisors have different views about
the suitability of different adaptation measures. For
example, more than 40 per cent of the forest owners
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believe that alternative forest management practices
that avoid clear-cutting is an effective way of dealing
with climate change. Only 17 per cent of the forestry
advisors share that opinion. There was also a difference
in opinion regarding earlier, more intensive felling and
clearing. More than 80 per cent of the advisors preferred that method, but only half of the owners.
The survey results also show a substantial share
of forest owners consider taking climate adaptation
measures as an urgent matter. About one fifth of the
forest owners who took part in the survey said they
would soon have to take steps to adapt their forest to
climate change, almost half of all forest owners stated
that they would take risk-minimising steps in the
coming five years.
Insufficient knowledge seems to be one of the main
obstacles preventing forest owners from taking climate
adaptation measures. The study shows that less than
a quarter of the forest owners feel they have sufficient
knowledge to adapt their forest to climate change.
Moreover, A quarter of them expressed a high degree
of distrust regarding climate research, while the corresponding figure for forest advisors was only 15 per cent.
The study also identified how science communi-
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
National survey of forestry professionals in Sweden
cation can increase awareness of climate change and
help forest owners with adaptation. The forest owners
who took part in the study were compared with a
group of forest owners who had recently taken part in
an education projects run by the Swedish Forest Agency
on adaptation to climate change. Those forest owners
had been informed about the risk of climate change
and about possible adaptation measures through seminars, workshops or individual consultations.
When these two groups are compared, it appears that communication can be an efficient tool for
promoting climate adaptation. In general, the forest
owners who had taken part in the education project
about climate change felt better equipped to take on
adaptation measures. More than 37 per cent of them
felt they had enough knowledge to adapt their forestry.
31 per cent also expressed that they would soon need
to take steps. Only 23 per cent of the forest owners
who had not taken part in the education project said
that they had enough knowledge, while 20 per cent
said they would soon need to take steps. k
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
The survey was done under the Mistra-SWECIA research programme, in collaboration with the University of Gothenburg and with support from the Swedish
Forestry Agency. A questionnaire was sent to 3000
forest owners, 1100 forestry advisors, and to 4000
people who represented the Swedish general public. Half of the forest owners in the survey had taken
part in one of the Swedish Forestry Agency's education programmes on climate change adaptation. The
survey asked respondents about their experience of
extreme weather events, risk-minimising measures,
views about the risks of climate change, and knowledge about climate adaptation. 2568 forest owners,
364 forestry advisors and 1215 members of the general public filled in the questionnaire.
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Text: Karin André och Hanna Holm
"It's hard for me as a new forest owner to
find impartial advice. In the first instance,
I ask other forest owners".
Forest owner who has recently inherited forest.
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Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Text: Hanna Holm and Karin André
During the year, Mistra-SWECIA's researchers have met forest
owners from the Swedish counties Scania, Gävleborg, Jämtland and
Västerbotten to discuss how Swedish forestry is affected by climate
change. In November, forest owners and researchers met up once
more to share lessons learned from different parts of the country.
Climate adaptation discussions
between forest owners and researchers
During the discussions, forest owners have testified
that they notice a change in the seasons and an increased growth in the forest. At the same time, many
expressed concern about storm damages and infestations by insects and fungi. Forest owners have described how they have been afflicted by storms, even
though their forest was well managed. One way of preventing storm damage is to have a larger proportion of
deciduous forest. However, deciduous forest demands
a lot of maintenance since the young plants must be
protected from game. It is also difficult to know what
sort of yield the forest will eventually give. Deciduous
forest, which can be used for example in the furniture
industry, can give a monetary return that justifies increased maintenance costs. Another measure that influences a forest's storm resistance is the timing of
clearing, thinning and felling.
A decline in demand for paper can open up new
opportunities for other products, such as viscose and
bioenergy. Both research and risk capital are needed
to develop new products and new markets. Forest
owners must spread their risks in order to cope with
climate change and with the uncertainty of future
yield. However, forest owners discussed that the recommendations they received still focused on spruce
forest. Some questioned whether the recommendations
they had been given was neutral and they claimed that
the advisors they had met were acting on behalf of inMistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
dustry, while others said they had great confidence
in advisors from their local forest owner association.
Some forest owners take advantage of opportunities to
experiment.
– Because there are so many of us forest owners
in Sweden, we spread the risks when we cultivate the
forest in different ways, said one of the forest owners
from Scania in southern Sweden.
Local cooperation
Many testified the value of good neighbourliness,
sharing lessons learned, and local study circles. One
general reflection was that Swedish forest owners are
very knowledgeable.
– We ought to meet up even more than we do
now. Different forest owners have different specialist
knowledge and interests. We can learn a lot from each
other, said one forest owner from Västerbotten in
northern Sweden.
Forest owner also discussed that in northern
Sweden, more local cooperation is needed to expand
and maintain the forest road network since decreased
ground frost means roads must be improved. Climate
change is causing wetter weather and so more attention
must be paid to maintaining ditches and digging new
ones. The contractors who operate forestry machinery
need more knowledge and understanding of nature conservation so as to avoid unnecessary ground damage.
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Climate adaptation discussions between forest owners and researchers
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Forest owners also need knowledge about nature conservation in order to purchase services that will give adequate protection to bogs and other water reservoirs.
– The client decides what he or she wants but to
make demands, you need knowledge, said a forest
owner from Jämtland who also does contracting work.
– As a land owner, I must find out what machines
the contractor intends to use in my forest, said one of
the forest owners. It is a little more expensive to use
smaller machines but at the same time they cause less
damage. The contractors earn more money by driving
large machines and they often have a disclaimer clause
for any ground damage in the agreement with the land
owner, but if the forest is certified, you have to use
contractors who also are certified.
One of the forest owners from southern Sweden,
who, together with her siblings, took over responsibility for some forest after their father, became interested in climate issues after the Gudrun storm which
opened many people's eyes. They had a lot of old forest
that was felled by the storm. When they reafforest,
they mix spruce with deciduous forest. This forest
owner wished for greater flexibility so that land owners
could experiment even more with new species of tree.
The forest owners that took part in the discussion
suggest there should be more cooperation between
authorities and researchers and that more attention
should be paid to forest owners' needs.
– There is a risk that research findings stay inside
the research community, said one participant from
Västerbotten.
– Both researchers and government officials need to
get out into the forest, said a forest owner from Scania.
The forest owners also called for research on the
significance of ecosystems. How can ecosystem services
be valued? Several participants expressed that they
would willingly take part in future research projects
and in meetings with researchers and forest owners. k
The discussions with Swedish forest owners were led by
Karin André from SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute)
and were organised in collaboration with colleagues at
SEI, Lund University, SMHI and the University of Edinburgh. During the year, they have met and discussed climate change and climate adaptation with some 40 forest
owners from different parts of Sweden. The aim of the
project is to gain more knowledge about what affects
the possibilities of handling changes in forestry as a result
of climate change. In 2015, work will continue with the
processing and analysis of the gathered material.
To sum up, the discussions have highlighted the challenges and possibilities that the forestry industry faces
with regard to adapting to climate change. Sharing science-based information is vital and one of the challenges is to create meeting places where researchers and
practitioners can share knowledge and lessons learned.
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Text: Kristina Blennow
Forest owners in Europe cannot be expected to adapt their
silviculture in order to supply forest biomass for energy purposes to
the extent required to reach the EU's stipulated goals for renewable
energy production. A study on forest owners in Sweden, Germany
and Portugal showed that a majority was negative to switching the
focus of their forest management from production of stemwood to
forest biomass for energy purposes, even if it would lead to higher
economic gain.
Forest owners' views on forest
biomass for energy purposes
Climate change affects forestry by changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme weather. Moreover,
forestry is indirectly affected by changes in public expectations that are a result of climate change. For example,
the forestry sector may be expected to adapt to climate
impacts but it could also be expected to help to counteract climate change by providing more biomass for
renewable energy. Therefore, from a landowner point of
view, it is not only the direct impacts of climate change
that matter; indirect effects in the form of new expectations on forestry to help counteract climate change
are also significant. Both society and landowners want
forests to provide a long list of goods and services; using
the forest as a resource for energy purposes is therefore
yet another item on that lengthy list.
The European Commission expects the use of biomass for energy purposes in the EU to increase significantly so as to reach the goal that at least 20 per cent
of all energy consumption in the EU will come from
renewable sources by 2020. The member states have
worked out that the direct supply of biomass from
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
their forests must increase by 45 per cent between
2000 and 2020 in order for that goal to be reached.
Half of the forestland in Europe is privately owned,
which means the attitudes of individual forest owners
towards biomass targets and economic policy tools are
of great significance.
The attitudes of forest owners in
­Sweden, Germany and Portugal
Sweden, Germany and Portugal represent a northsouth gradient across Europe which covers a range of
conditions with regard to bio-climate and economic,
social and political structures. We have gathered information from 800 individual forest owners in these
countries. In addition to establishing the size of the
forest estate, three main questions were asked: to what
degree do forest owners believe in a lasting demand
for forest biomass for energy purposes?; what is the
likelihood of them continuing to use their forest to
produce stemwood or switching to produce biomass
for energy purposes, assuming that it would be prof15
Text: Kristina Blennow

16
itable to do so?; and what is their attitude towards
switching land use from pasture, agriculture and other
purposes to forest, and changing forestland to land
used for cultivating energy crops?
The results showed that although a majority of
the forest owners expressed a strong belief in a lasting
demand for forest biomass for energy purposes, they
were negative about changing the focus of their forest
management by using forest currently used to produce
stemwood to forest used for biomass for energy purposes, even if it would be more profitable. Only one
out of ten forest owners (who together own the equivalent of twelve per cent of the forestland area) said they
were positive to changing the focus of their forest management even if it was profitable. Almost two out of
three were strongly negative to changing focus. If we
assume that all the respondents with a positive attitude
to switching from stemwood to biomass for energy pur-
poses actually did so, and that the respondents are representative of European forest owners in general, then
twelve per cent of the privately owned forestland would
be available to provide biomass for energy purposes.
This can be compared with the more than 90 per cent
that is assumed in influential simulation studies.
The results show that the future supply of forest
biomass for energy purposes from privately owned
forests in Europe and the efficiency of the economic
policy tools to mobilise forest biomass for energy purposes are overestimated. The results also show that the
attitudes of the people who make decisions at local
level have a very strong influence on the supply of
forest biomass for energy purposes. These results are
of great significance for how the proportion of forest
biomass for energy purposes that is needed to reach the
EU's 2020 renewable energy goal can be achieved and
for how an effective policy for renewable energy should
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Forest owners' views on forest biomass for energy purposes
be formulated. The effectiveness of economic compensation cannot be taken for granted. The results also
show the crucial importance of taking land owners' attitudes and goals into consideration when drawing up
effective land use and climate change policies. k
Further reading:
Blennow K, Persson E, Lindner M, Faias S P and Hanewinkel M, 2014, Forest owner motivations and attitudes towards supplying biomass for energy in Europe,
Biomass and Bioenergy, 67: 223–230. (The study was
conducted within the EU project MOTIVE (Models for
adaptive forest management, grant 226544) and Mistra-SWECIA.)
Persson E, Norman J, Götz S, Faias S P, Hanewinkel M,
Tomé M and Blennow K, 2011, A report on stakeholder
approaches to and views on ways and options for handling
uncertainty and change, report FP7-226544-MOTIVE / D5.4
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
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Text: Olle Olsson
In a globalized world, climate change impacts in one part of the
world can have a strong effect in another part. This also applies to
Sweden's forest industry. It is therefore essential to analyse what
is going on in the world around us and include indirect climate
impacts in risk analyses of how the forest industry is affected by
climate change.
Sweden's forest industry and
indirect climate impacts
Within the scope of Mistra-SWECIA, a framework is
being developed for the systematic handling of indirect
climate impacts. Four processes have been identified
that transfer climate impacts from one place to another:
> People (for example, migration caused by climate
change)
> Biophysical processes (climate impacts on the upper
reach of a river may affect the entire river basin)
> Trade (global trade flows with products for industries and consumers can be disrupted by e.g.
flooding)
> Financial flows (Swedish pension funds invest globally
which means exposure to global climate change)
If this framework is applied to the Swedish forestry
sector, a number of interesting aspects can be seen. Sweden's forestry sector is very much a part of an international market and a large proportion of its production
is exported. Moreover, Sweden's forest industry has increasingly established both production and sales operations in other parts of the world, which means increased
exposure to climate impacts that are far removed from
the industry's traditional heartland in northern Europe.
People
With a warmer climate, storm damage to forest is predicted to increase, mainly because less ground frost
will result in poorer ground stability during the winter
months. Spruce forest is particularly vulnerable for
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such deterioration in ground stability. Indirect impacts
related to flows of people can, for example, be linked
to events after the Gudrun storm in 2005. The storm
caused enormous damage to forests in southern Sweden
but it also had indirect impacts since a lack of personnel
and felling resources affected large parts of northern
Europe, including regions that had not been very affected by the storm. When large volumes of stormdamaged forest in southern Sweden had to be processed
within a short time so as to avoid further damage from
insects and harmful fungi, so much skilled personnel
and machinery was needed that there was a drop in
felling operations in other parts of the Nordic region.
Biophysical processes
The risk of forest fires is expected to increase as a result
of climate change because long dry periods, like the
one that preceded last year's fire in Västmanland, will
become more common. The forest fire in Västmanland
during the late summer of 2014 illustrates an indirect
impact that can be linked to a biophysical process. Here,
the forestry sector was the source of an impact that affected other sectors and geographical areas located far
from the actual fire. The biophysical process consisted
of smoke. The forest fire itself had devastating effects on
a large area, 15,000 - 20,000 hectares, but the smoke
from the fire spread over a much larger area. Smoke
from the fire was felt in both Stockholm and Oslo. In
the relatively nearby town of Västerås, the air during the
fire reminded of the air in the polluted city of Beijing.
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Sweden's forest industry and indirect climate impacts
Trade
Sweden's forestry sector is very much part of an international market, partly for its supply of timber
but above all to sell its products. This means there are
extremely complex supply chains which extend all
round the world. These trade flows could be very exposed to external disruptions and this could happen
in very different geographical locations. The effects
of climate change can be both negative and positive.
For example, Sweden's forestry industry imports substantial amounts of raw wood from countries around
the Baltic Sea. In winter, frozen ports have constituted
an obstacle. This is a problem that is expected to be
alleviated by a warmer climate and this should benefit
the Baltic Sea timber trade, something that can be regarded as a positive indirect impact of climate change.
Financial flows
There are institutional and judicial barriers that limit
the international exposure of Sweden's forestry sector,
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
not least the fact that it is difficult for legal persons
to get an acquisition permit to purchase forest and
agricultural estates. This means that, in essence, international investment in Swedish forests is done via
investments in the listed Swedish forestry companies.
However, these forestry companies are players on a
global market for wood products and they are affected
by climate-related market fluctuations in other parts
of the world. A good example of this is the extensive
damage caused by insects to pine forest in western
Canada. There, milder winters have led to improved
living conditions for the lodgepole pine bark beetle.
This insect pest has destroyed more than 700 million
cubic metres of forest in the western part of North
America, which is the equivalent of about twenty per
cent of Sweden's total timber stock. The damage to
forests in Canada has had a significant effect on, for
example, the Japanese wood product market, where
Swedish forestry companies are in competition with
Canadian players. k
19
The Egon storm, Malmö 2014. Photo: Johan Nilsson / TT
Ändrad risk för extrema väderhändelser i Sverige
20
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Text: Erik Kjellström
Global warming is changing the preconditions for extreme weather
events. High resolution regional climate scenarios indicate more
warm and fewer cold temperature extremes in the future. In
Sweden, there will also be a growing risk of intensive precipitation.
Changed risk of extreme
weather events in Sweden
Climate scenarios show that the effects of global warming
for Sweden's part will be an increasingly warm climate
with more precipitation. The scenarios indicate changes
in annual and seasonal average values, and also changes in
the intensity and frequency of different extreme weather
events. For example, there may be more frequent and
more intensive bouts of heavy rain and Sweden's warmest
summer days may become even warmer. Changes like
these are predicted to have far-reaching consequences,
both for ecosystems and our society.
Climate change has already led to changes in extreme weather in many parts of the world. Since the
mid-1900s, Europe has had a growing number of warm
days and warm nights, and the intensity of heat waves
has increased. Likewise, the number of cold days and
cold nights has decreased. The intensity and frequency
of precipitation extremes have also increased in recent
decades. SMHI's precipitation observations show that
in Sweden today, there are more 24-hour periods with
extreme precipitation than there were during the 1900s.
As the temperature rises, the scenarios show that
temperature extremes are changing. This is especially
noticeable in winter when the rise in temperature is
reinforced when snow cover and ice cover are reduced
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
in both size and duration. If there is no extensive snow
cover, the possibility of creating very cold air masses is
very much reduced. This means that Sweden's coldest
winter days are going to be much milder in future and
that is a much bigger change than the corresponding
change in winter average temperature. By the end of
the century, this could mean changes of more than
10°C in large parts of Sweden (according to emissions
scenario RCP8.5). The highest summer temperatures
will rise in a similar way but these changes will be
more moderate since there is no corresponding reinforcement process like the decrease in snow cover in
winter. According to emissions scenario RCP8.5, the
highest annual 24-hour average temperature may increase by up to 5°C. This means that what we regard
today as being high temperatures or "unusually warm
weather" will become more common in future. Figure
1 gives an example of how often extreme weather,
which used to occur every twenty years, is predicted
to occur during three periods during the next century.
Even by 2011-2040, the recurrence time will be
halved in almost half of the country. At the end of the
century, the recurrence time will have been reduced
to only a couple of years in the whole of Sweden.
21
Text: Erik Kjellström

For precipitation, the scenarios show increased preci­
pitation extremes for different time scales, ranging
from short periods of time from minutes to hours and
heavy showers of rain for up to days or weeks of recurring low pressure systems. In other words, in the
future, the recurrence time for precipitation extremes
will decrease, which is shown in Figure 2 for the largest
amount of precipitation during a 24-hour period.
The figure is based on five high resolution simulations
based on the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. The relatively
low number of scenarios is one reason why the pattern
that emerges on the maps is speckled.
Changes in wind climate are less clear and different
global climate models give different results. The Rossby
Centre's regional climate scenarios do not show a distinct
change in wind extremes when it comes to high wind
speeds in Sweden. However, they do indicate a certain
increase in wind speed over sea areas that are currently
covered with ice, where the ice will have melted because
of a warmer climate. (But this does not mean that high
wind speeds will occur more often; it means that completely calm conditions will become less common and
gentle winds will become somewhat stronger as temperatures change in the lower atmosphere).
The new high resolution regional climate scenarios
show that extensive changes in weather and climate extremes are to be expected as a result of global warming.
There is substantial natural variability in our climate
system and this can have a reinforcing or dampening
effect on the climate change indicators described here.
However, changes in temperature extremes are very
robust and we will have to get used to the idea that warm
temperature extremes that we have hardly ever experienced before will become more common, and that cold
weather extremes in winter will become more and more
rare. Generally speaking, more intensive precipitation extremes are also predicted but the results do not show any
clear changes in high wind speeds. The climate scenarios
show that these changes will take place successively over
time, with increasing changes in the latter part of the
century with a greater degree of climate impact. k
22
New regional climate scenarios at the
Rossby Centre
The Rossby Centre's regional climate model RCA4 has
been used to produce a large number of regional climate scenarios within the international collaboration
project CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). For Europe, ten different global
climate models have been scaled down to 50 km horizontal resolution for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions
scenarios. These two emissions scenarios describe different future developments where RCP8.5 depicts a world
with sharply increasing greenhouse gas emissions and
very substantial climate impact, while RCP4.5 represents
a situation with somewhat less climate impact. Moreover, three global climate models have been scaled down
for emissions scenario RCP2.6 which depicts greatly reduced emissions and a relatively low degree of climate
impact. RCP2.6 represents the possibility of attaining the
2-degree target (i.e. that global warming must not reach
a level 2 degrees above that of pre-industrial level). Five
of the scenarios based on RCP8.5 have also been scaled
down to 12.5 km resolution. All these simulations have
been done for the period 1961–2100.
The change in climate in these scenarios varies depending on the time perspective and emissions scenario used.
Initially, the emissions scenarios do not differ very much
but later on in the century, the differences between
them grow very significantly.
Further reading:
Read more about extreme weather events in MistraSWECIA's annual report 2011, p 9.
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Changed risk of extreme weather events in Sweden
2011–2040
2041–2070
2071–2100
Figure 1. Projected warm temperature extreme occurrences 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The analysed temperature extremes correspond to events that had a recurrence time of 20 years during the period 1971–2000. The results
show an ensemble average value for nine simulations using climate model RCA4 with 50 km horizontal resolution.
2011–2040
2041–2070
2071–2100
Figure 2. Projected intense daily precipitation occurrences 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The analysed precip-
itation extremes correspond to events that had a recurrence time of 20 years during the period 1971–2000. The results
show an ensemble average value for five simulations using climate model RCA4 with 12.5 km horizontal resolution.
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
23
Text: hanna holm
Nature conservation has traditionally been a matter of preserving
natural environments that are at risk of exploitation. Climate
change is affecting the preconditions for nature conservation since
species and environments are now also at threat from rising sea
levels, rising temperatures and more frequent weather extremes.
Climate-friendly forest conservation
In September, Mistra-SWECIA initiated a round-table
discussion where representatives from the Swedish
Forestry Agency, the Ministry of the Environment,
the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the
Federation of Swedish Farmers (LRF), several county
administrative boards and Mistra-SWECIA met to
discuss the challenges that nature conservation in
Sweden is facing because of climate change.
One impact of climate change is that Swedish forests
are going to be more affected by drought which will increase the risk of fire. Less ground frost will increase the
risk of forests being damaged by storms, and increase
the risk of erosion and landslide by watercourses. The
ecological balance will be affected by higher temperatures; new species will be able to spread at the expense
of other species and the forest will have a longer growing
season. In cultivated environments, it can be difficult to
distinguish what changes are a result of climate change
and what has been caused by other factors. It is easier to
identify climate-related changes in natural environments
that have not been so altered by humans.
From a nature conservation perspective, disruptions like fires, flooding and storm-felling can be seen
as being natural occurrences that are of benefit to
many species. However, changed preconditions and
growing uncertainty impose new requirements for
forward planning and flexibility when, for example,
the management plans of a nature reserve are to be revised. Today, the processes that steer Swedish nature
conservation focus largely on how conditions used to
be and how they are now. But in the future, these pro24
cesses will have to incorporate the uncertainty of how
conditions are going to be and how they will function.
The whole purpose of nature conservation may change,
from focussing on the protection of vulnerable environments to supporting different ecosystem services.
A change in approach is also required so there is not
such a strong emphasis on the separation of conservation and production since profitable production depends on functioning ecosystems. Biodiversity goals do
not distinguish between threats from land use or from
climate change, or undesired side-effects of climate
measures to reduce climate change and promote adaptation. However, it must also be considered what
happens when ecosystems that are already stressed are
also subjected to the consequences of climate change.
In the future, the management of nature reserves will
require extensive dialogue between different stakeholders in order to coordinate different goals. It will
become more important for stakeholders to trust each
other, since it seems the financial preconditions for
nature conservation are going to deteriorate.
– We are not going to know for sure how climate
change will affect the preconditions for the conservation of woodlands but we must still take action and
face the uncertainty with an open mind, concluded
Fredrik Ingemarson who moderated the discussion.k
The round-table discussion on Climate-friendly forest
conservation was organised by Olle Olsson from SEI
within the framework of Mistra-SWECIA's efforts to build
bridges between research, practice and decision-making.
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
A fire-stricken area in Västmanland County. Photo: Anna Friden, Västmanland County Administrative Board
Klimatanpassad naturvård i skogslandskapet
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
25
Begränsning av klimatförändringarna och politisk instabilitet
26
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Text: Alex Schmitt
Climate change that is caused by emissions of greenhouse gases,
such as carbon dioxide, is generally seen as one of the most urgent
political challenges of our time. Regulations, such as taxation on
fossil fuel consumption or quantity restrictions, are necessary in
order to rectify those problems. A large number of scientific studies
have analysed what sort of tax would be optimal from a socioeconomic perspective, or alternatively, how much carbon dioxide
should people be allowed to emit. However, researchers cannot be
content with simply working out the optimal regulation. We must
also analyse how political decisions are actually taken and why
political play does not always lead to the most favourable decisions
being taken from a socio-economic perspective.
Greenhouse gas emissions
and political power play
In Europe, there is significant consensus across the political spectrum on the need to regulate greenhouse
gas emissions. In the USA, in contrast, there is considerable disagreement between the two major parties,
the Democrats and the Republicans. An important
question is what consequences such disagreement has.
In order to study how divergent political views affect
the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, a stylized,
but nevertheless quantitative, model was constructed.
The model contains two political parties with different
views on the value of limiting fossil carbon emissions.
In the model, the two parties are called the “Republicans" and the “Democrats". The “Republicans” believe that the climate threat is fictional, while the
“Democrats” take it seriously. At each point in time,
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
one of the parties is in power but may lose it to the
other party. The government of the incumbent party
takes decisions on the use of fossil and/or green energy,
and decides how much is to be invested in production
capital for the two types of energy. In contrast to most
other studies in this field, it is here assumed that a
government cannot determine policies once and for
all. The government may lose power to another government that can make different decisions including
revoking previous regulation.
Figure 1 shows annual emission levels (measured in
tons of carbon) over time in a scenario with a "Democratic" government in power. The different lines show
emission levels for scenarios which differ with regard
to how the government perceives the risk of losing
27
Text: Alex Schmitt

28
power to the "Republicans". Figure 2 shows the corresponding emission levels if instead a "Republican" government is in power.
The blue line in Figure 1 represents the case when
a "Democratic" government makes decisions while
assuming (naively) that it will be in power for ever.
The other two lines show the decisions when the incumbent "Democratic" government acts strategically
taking into account the risk of being voted out of
office. The green line shows the case when the "Democratic" government is strategic while it believes that
the "Republican" government will act naively thinking
it will be in power forever. This scenario gives an
emission curve that is much lower than if the "Democratic" government believes it will be in power forever.
As we see in the figure, political instability in fact leads
to less emission by the “Democratic” government.
There are two explanations for this result: Firstly
the "Democratic" government reduces the share of
fossil fuel for a given energy production structure. The
"Democratic" government cares more about the future
level of cumulative carbon dioxide emissions than a
potential "Republican" successor. Therefore, it has an
incentive to reduce current emission levels in order to
compensate the predicted increase of future emissions.
Second, the "Democratic" government will take the
opportunity of investing more in green energy capital
as long as it is in power. By doing so, it can influence a
potential "Republican" successor into using a greener
mix of energy if/when it comes into power. Both of
these factors help to make emissions lower when a
"Democratic" government is afraid of losing power
than if it believes it will be in power forever.
When both parties act in a strategic way (the red
line), carbon dioxide emissions are closer to the naive
benchmark. However, emissions are still lower than
when the "Democrats" believe they will be in power
for ever. This can be explained by studying the behaviour of a "Republican" government. Figure 2 shows
the level of annual carbon dioxide emissions when a
"Republican" government is in power. Again, the blue
line illustrates the situation with a naive government
that behaves as if it will be in power forever. The red
line shows the outcome when both parties act strategically. Figure 2 shows that the risk of losing power will
give also a government that does not care about climate
change an incentive to reduce emissions. The reason
for this is that a "Republican" government realises that
a future "Democratic" successor will radically reduce
emissions. The decrease will be more dramatic and
therefore the cost will be greater, the more has been
emitted before the “Democratic” government came
into power. This creates an incentive for the "Republican" government to reduce emissions itself in order
not to induce such a dramatic policy choice by a potential successor. This behaviour is in turn predicted by
a potential "Democratic" government and this weakens
its incentive to limit emissions.
The model implies that the cumulative emissions
of greenhouse gases in year 100 will be lower if governments are strategic rather than short-sighted, and
this would affect global welfare in a positive way. The
model demonstrates interesting and quantitatively
relevant consequences of the political play regarding
emission limits. Further research could extend the
analysis in a more global direction. k
Within the Mistra-SWECIA framework, research is being
done to develop a climate-economic model. Studies of
how decision-makers behave are part of the supporting
documentation for this model development.
Alex Schmitt did his doctoral thesis dissertation in September 2014 at IIES, Stockholm University. The title was
Beyond Pigou – Climate Change Mitigation, Policy Making
and Distortion. Schmitt is now working at the Center for
Energy, Climate and Exhaustible Resources in Munich.
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Greenhouse gas emissions and political power play
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Annual carbon dioxide emissions in the USA with a "Democratic"
Annual carbon dioxide emissions in the USA with a "Republican"
government
government
Short-sighted goverment
Strategic goverment, strategic opposition
GtC
GtC
Short-sighted goverment
Strategic goverment, short-sighted opposition
Strategic goverment, strategic opposition
Year
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Year
29
Lima / Peru 2014. Photo: Enrique Cuneo / TT
Text: hanna holm
"It's encouraging that more and more countries, businesses and individuals
are moving towards solutions to the climate issue."
Markku Rummukainen, Mistra-SWECIA's Programme Director
"Right now, renewable energy is doing really well and that's giving us
hope that we can solve this."
Thomas Sterner, Professor of Environmental Economics at the University of Gothenburg
30
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Text: Hanna Holm
Dialogue on the IPCC's
fifth Assessment Report
During the year, Mistra-SWECIA initiated two events to discuss
recent reports from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC.
How can climate threat become a hot topic?
In early April, Mistra-SWECIA, Lund University and
the newspaper Sydsvenskan organised a debate: ”Debatt
i Lund”. Markku Rummukainen and Lennart Olsson
from Lund University, Alva Snis Sigtryggsson from Fältbiologerna and Sweden's former chief climate negotiator
Anders Turesson, took part in the debate.
Lennart Olsson, one of the authors of IPCC’s reports,
said that getting angry is a fair response to the reports.
– Anger is good; it can mobilize people into doing
something good, said Lennart during the debate.
Alva Snis Sigtryggsson elicited the evening's biggest
round of applause when she lamented that climate
policy is so passive.
– We do actually have elected officials who are responsible for coming generations and our environment."
– We must have a democracy that mobilizes the
people, Lennart Olsson replied.
Anders Turesson, who has been participating in international climate negotiations for twelve years, said that
the EU and Sweden must dare to show the way.
– What is needed are far-reaching, democratically
taken decisions, regulations, and economic policy instruments so that we citizens can live a life that is sustainable in the long term, said Anders.
Markku Rummukainen, another of the authors of
IPCC's reports, said that scientific research gives a good
foundation but it does not automatically lead to decisions.
– The conclusions about how the climate is
changing and the fact that we will all be affected are
well-established. The climate issue now at hand is how
to develop the society, said Markku.
– There is no limit to how much we can achieve
if we cooperate, said Lennart Olsson at the end of the
debate. k
Most cost-efficient measure is to immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Mistra-SWECIA, the research programme Mistra Indigo
and the green think tank Fores initiated an after-work
seminar in Stockholm on 16 April. Markku Rummukainen and Thomas Sterner, both among the IPCC Lead
Authors contributed together with Susanna Baltscheffsky
from the newspaper Ny Teknik. The seminar attracted
about 100 interested participants.
Markku Rummukainen accounted for the extent of
greenhouse gas emissions and said that the global emissions until now correspond to almost 2000 billion tons of
carbon dioxide. If global warming is not to exceed 2 deMistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
grees, then over half of the maximum cumulative amount
of emissions that can be permitted has already happened.
Thomas Sterner said that to decrease global emissions of greenhouse gases, the following is needed:
international cooperation, a price tag on carbon emissions, the abolishment of coal subsidies, and favourable
conditions for renewable energy.
Calculations of the cost of the investments needed
to limit global warming to under two degrees show
that costs are small in relation to simultaneous economic growth, but that costs will increase considerably
if measures are postponed. k
31
Mistra-swecia
Budget
Programme phase II (Period 2012-2015)
programme funding (sek ´000)
48,000
From Mistra
From Mistra (transferred from Phase 1)
2,000
From SMHI
4,790
From Stockholm University
1,870
180
Various
Total
56,840
Programme costs (sek ´000)
2012
Programme management
outcome
Communication
Component I:
Regional
Adaptation processes
climate change
Regional climate modelling: High
adaption
resolution climate projections, im-
2014
2015
2016
outcome preliminary
2013
budget
budget
Total
1,440
1,310
1,370
1,510
200
5,830
1,080
1,480
1,460
2,200
700
6,920
2,220
4,230
4,410
3,090
13,950
2,110
1,840
3,300
2,910
10,160
2,860
2,600
3,140
2,140
10,740
pact modelling and risk assessment
Component II:
Global drivers
Climate-economy modelling
Global climate projections
With funding in kind from SMHI
420
1,270
960
630
3,280
880
1,150
1,150
1,250
4,420
11,000
13,870
15,800
13,730
Land use narratives
Component III:
Partner-driven studies and synthesis
Total per year
1,530
Strategic reserve
Total
56,840
Note 1. Each amount is rounded to the nearest SEK 10,000.
Note 2. Programme management includes the Programme Director, the Secretariat and the Programme Board.
Note 3. Communication includes the Communicator, communication activities, website, meetings and events, as well as
syntheses and collaborative studies.
32
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Mistra-swecia
Organisation
PROGRAMME BOARD
Bengt Holgersson, chair
Bodil Aarhus Andrae, SMHI
Tim Carter, the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
Hillevi Eriksson, Swedish Forest Agency
Tom Hedlund, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency
Thomas Nilsson, Mistra (adj.)
Gunilla Saltin, Södra
Joakim Sonnegård, the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council
Ben Smith, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem
Science at Lund University
Christer Jansson, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Dave Murray-Rust, School of GeoSciences at the University
of Edinburgh, the UK
David Lindstedt, Rossby Centre, SMHI
David Strömberg, Institute for International Economic Studies at Stockholm University
Erik Kjellström, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Fredrik Lagergren, Department of Physical Geography and
PROGRAMME DIRECTOR
Markku Rummukainen
Ecosystem Science at Lund University
Georg Marthin, Institute for International Economic Studies
at Stockholm University
SECRETARIAT
Susanna Bruzell, Programme Coordinator
Hanna Holm, Research Communicator
Gregor Vulturius, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI
Grigory Nikulin, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Gustav Engström, the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics
Hanna Holm, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research
MANAGEMENT GROUP
Markku Rummukainen
Susanna Bruzell
John Hassler
Hanna Holm
Jonas Nycander
Olle Olsson
Patrick Samuelsson
Ben Smith
Åsa Gerger Swartling
at Lund University
Henrik Carlsen, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI
Jenny Hieronymus, Department of Meteorology at Stockholm University
Johan Gars, the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics
John Hassler, Institute for International Economic Studies at
Stockholm University
Jonas Claesson, Department of Meteorology at Stockholm
University
Jonas Nycander, Department of Meteorology at Stockholm
University
SCIENTIFIC REFERENCE GROUP
Martin Claussen, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,
Hamburg, Germany
Martin König, Umweltbundesamt, Austria
Rik Leemans, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
Sir Nicholas Stern, LSE, the UK
Roger Street, UKCIP-OUCE, the UK
Josef Sigurdsson, Institute for International Economic Studies
at Stockholm University
Karin André, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI
Kristina Blennow, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Lars Bärring, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Laurent Marquer, Department of Physical Geography and
Ecosystem Science at Lund University
Magnus Benzie, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI
ALL PARTICIPANTS
Alex Schmitt, Institute for International Economic Studies at
Stockholm University
Anders Ahlström, Department of Physical Geography and
Ecosystem Science at Lund University
Anna Maria Jönsson, Department of Physical Geography
and Ecosystem Science at Lund University
Annica Ekman, Department of Meteorology at Stockholm
University
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Marco Kupiainen, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Marc Rounsevell, School of GeoSciences at the University of
Edinburgh, the UK
Markku Rummukainen, SMHI and Lund University
Martin Evaldsson, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Masayuki Kudamatsu, Institute for International Economic
Studies at Stockholm University
Mats Andersson, Centre for Environmental and Climate
Research at Lund University
33
Mistra-swecia

Mats Lindeskog, Department of Physical Geography and
Renate Wilcke, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Ecosystem Science at Lund University
Shiyu Wang, Rossby Centre, SMHI
Michael Reiter, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria
Susanna Bruzell, Centre for Environmental and Climate
Olle Olsson, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI
­Research at Lund University
Oskar Wallgren, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI
Thorsten Rogall, Institute for International Economic Studies
Patrick Samuelsson, Rossby Centre, SMHI
at Stockholm University
Paul Miller, Department of Physical Geography and Eco­
Tony Smith, Department of Economics at Yale University,
system Science at Lund University
the US
Per Krusell, Institute for International Economic Studies at
Torsten Persson, Institute for International Economic Studies
Stockholm University
at Stockholm University
Peter Frodin, Department of Physical Geography and Eco­
Victor Blanco González, Institute of Geography and the
system Science at Lund University
Lived Environment at the University of Edinburgh, the UK
Peter Repinski, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI
Åsa Gerger Swartling, Stockholm Environment Institute,
Petter Lind, Rossby Centre, SMHI
SEI and Stockholm Resilience Centre
Communication
Scientific articles
Andersson M, Kellomäki S, Gardiner B and Blennow K, 2014,
Life-style services and yield from forests adaptively managed
against the risk of wind damage – a simulation study, Regional
Environmental Change, publ online 3 Sept.
Hieronymus J, 2014, The global marine carbon system through
time, thesis on meteorology at Stockholm University
Jönsson A M and Gerger Swartling Å, 2014, Reflections on
Science–Stakeholder Interactions in Climate Change Adapta-
Arneth A, Olin S, Makkonen R, Paasonen P, Holst T, Kajos M,
tion Research within Swedish Forestry, Society & Natural
Kulmala M, Maximov T, Miller P A and Schurgers G, 2014,
Resources: An International Journal 27:11, 1130-1144
Future biogeochemical forcing in Eastern Siberia: cooling or
warming?, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 14:19149-19179
Jönsson A M, André K, Swartling Å G, Lagergren F and Vulturius G, 2014, Tool development for analysing forest owners’
Blennow K, Persson E, Lindner M, Faias S P and Hanewinkel
strategies to manage risks and adapt to climate change, XXIV
M, 2014, Forest owner motivations and attitudes towards sup-
IUFRO World Congress, 5-11 Oktober 2014, Salt Lake City,
plying biomass for energy in Europe, Biomass and Bioenergy,
USA, The international forestry review 16(5), 460
67:223-230
Kanyama A C and Blennow K, 2014, Evaluating the Local
Blennow K, Persson J, Wallin A, Vareman N and Persson E,
Climate Impacts Profile tool for assessing local impacts of
2014, Understanding risk in forest ecosystem services: implica-
extreme weather events, Journal of Geography and Natural
tions for effective risk management, communication and plan-
Disasters, 4:122
ning, Forestry 87:219-228
Kjellström E, Lind P, Lindstedt D and Landelius T, 2014, EvaluatEkici A, Chadburn S, Chaudhary N, Hajdu L H, Marmy A, Peng
ing temperature distributions in a high-resolution RCM at 6
S, Boike J, Burke E, Friend A D, Hauck C, Krinner G, Langer M,
km horizontal resolution over Europe, 3rd International Lund
Miller P A and Beer C, 2014, Site-level model intercomparison of
Regional-scale climate modelling workshop, 16-19 June 2014,
high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra
Lund, International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication 3:229-230
and barren landscapes, The Cryosphere Discuss. 8:4959-5013
34
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Mistra-swecia
Sweden and Norway, Local Environment, publ online 6 Nov
presentations
140114 André K ”Forestry stakeholders’ decision-making strategies, motivations and behavior in a changing climate” CSPR
Science Seminar, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden
Rummukainen M, 2014, Climate projections for 20150, in
140123 André K “Climate change: adaptation processes in
Fuhrer J and Gregory P J (red): Climate Change Impact and
forestry”, Kick-off conference for Uppvidinge municipality’s
Adaptation in Agricultural Systems, CABI Climate Change se-
competence development project: Uppvidingeskogen – Möj-
ries 5, CAB International, Oxfordshire, Storbritannien
ligheternas skog i ett föränderligt klimat, Åseda, Sweden
Schmitt A, 2014, Beyond Pigou – Climate Change Mitigation,
140125 Rummukainen M ”Klimatfrågan per 2014”, EOLUS
Policy Making and Distortion, thesis in economics at Stock-
wind energy seminar, Hässleholm, Sweden
Pilli-Sihvola K, van Oort B, Hanssen-Bauer I, Ollikainen M, Rummukainen M and Tuomenvirta H, 2014, Communication and use
of climate scenarios for climate change adaptation in Finland,
holm University
140227 Hieronymus J “The potential for sulfate reduction and
Seidl R, Rammer W and Blennow K, 2014, Simulating wind
pyrite deposition to alter the ocean atmosphere carbon bal-
disturbance impacts in forest landscapes: Tree-level heterogen-
ance during an oceanic anoxic event” Ocean Sciences Meeting
eity matters, Environmental Modelling & Software, 51:1-11
2014, Hawaii, USA
Smith B, Wårlind D, Arneth A, Hickler T, Leadley P, Siltberg J
140307 Gerger Swartling Å and Vulturius G “Using trans-
and Zaehle S, 2014, Implications of incorporating N cycling
formative learning to examine the role of climate change
and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based
communication in fostering stakeholder engagement with
dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences 11:2027-2054
adaptation”, Resilience 2014, Montpellier, France
Tang J, Miller P A, Crill P M, Olin S and Pilesjö P, 2014, Investi-
140312 Rummukainen M ”Klimatförändringen (inte bara
gating the influence of two different flow routing algorithms
om100 år)”, Greppa näringen, Nässjö, Sweden
on soil–water–vegetation interactions using the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-Guess, Ecohydrology publ oline 29 Juli
140314 Gerger Swartling Å and Vulturius G “Science-stakeholder based adaptation research gaining pace: experiences
Vulturius G and Gerger Swartling Å, 2014, Overcoming social
and theoretical considerations from Sweden”, Knowledge
barriers to learning and engagement with climate change
Sharing and Science-practice Interactions, Adaptation Fron-
adaptation, Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 29
tiers, Lisbon, Portugal
(Supplement 2)
140319 Blanco V, Brown C and Rounsevell M “The fate of
Walin G, Hieronymus J and Nycander J, 2014, Source-related
Swedish forests - How may potential futures unfold? Poster
variables for the description of the oceanic carbon system.
presentation at the 2nd Global Land Project Open Science
Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 15:3675-3687
Meeting, Berlin, Germany
Weiss M, Miller P A, van den Hurk B, van Noije T, Stefenescu
140327 Rummukainen M ”The (un)avoidable climate
S, Haarsma R, van Ulft L H, Hazeleger W, Le Sager P, Smith
change”, CERCMA, Helsinki, Finland
B and Schurgers G, 2014, Contribution of Dynamic Vegetation Phenology to Decadal Climate Predictability, J. Climate,
140403 Rummukainen M panel debate “Hur blir klimathotet
27:8563-8577
hett?”, Debatt i Lund, Lund, Sweden
Zhang W, Jansson C, Miller P A, Smith B and Samuelsson P,
140414 Vulturius G “Crossing the Gap: How I learnt to more
2014, Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance Arctic terrestrial car-
effectively engage people with climate change and help them
bon sink in regional Earth system dynamics, Biogeosciences,
adapt to its impacts”, TEDx Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland
11:5503-5519
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
35
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140416 Rummukainen M ”Vi förändrar klimatet”, Mistra-
non-hydrostatic high resolution RCMs” 3rd International Lund
SWECIA:s and INDIGO:s After-work, Stockholm, Sweden
Regional-scale climate modelling workshop, Lund, Sweden
140505 Rummukainen M ”Climate Services”, workshop on
140616-19 Lindstedt D, Lind P, Jones C and Kjellström E ”A
climate services, Lund, Sweden
new regional climate model operating at the meso-gamma
scale; performance over Europe” 3rd International Lund
140506 Vulturius G panel debate, workshop on climate
Regional-scale climate modelling workshop, Lund, Sweden
­services, Lund, Sweden
140616-19 Samuelsson P, Boone A and Gollvik S “Simulated
140514 Vulturius G, Gerger Swartling Å and André K “As-
canopy vegetation effects on snow conditions for a forest site
sessing the effectiveness of climate change communication in
using the Multi-Energy Balance option in SURFEX” 3rd Inter-
promoting engagement with climate science and adaptation”,
national Lund Regional-scale climate modelling workshop,
Adaptation Futures, Fortaleza, Brazil
Lund, Sweden
140516 Rummukainen M ”Our changing climate”, seminar,
140616-19 Wang S, Christian D, Döscher R, Höglund A,
KSLA, Stockholm, Sweden
Hordoir R, Meier H E M, Samuelsson P and Schimanke S
“Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled
140521 Rummukainen M ”Jorden blir varmare. Går det att
atmosphere ocean model in the North Sea and the Baltic
stoppa?” KVA's inspiration day for teachers, Lund, Sweden
Sea”, 3rd International Lund Regional-scale climate modelling
workshop, Lund, Sweden
140522 Rummukainen M ”Klimatfrågan 2014”, SMS Syd,
Lund, Sweden
140616-19 Wilcke R, Bärring L, Mendlik T, “Reducing model
ensemble size – a sensitivity study”, 3rd International Lund
140522 Schmitt A, ”Optimal Carbon and Income Taxation“,
Regional-scale climate modelling workshop, Lund, Sweden
MCC Workshop on Public Finance and Climate Policy, Berlin,
Germany
140702 Rummukainen M, participation at Rautaruukki's
seminar ”Klimatfrågor och stålproduktion kräver minst 100 års
140611 Schmitt A ”Optimal Carbon and Income Taxation“,
perspektiv”, Almedalen, Visby, Sweden
Monte Verita Conference on Sustainable Resource Use and
Economic Dynamics (SURED), Ascona, Switzerland
140721 Rummukainen M ”Alla pratar om väder, hur står det
till med klimatet”, Frukostmöten i juli, Simrishamn, Sweden
140616-19 Bärring L, Landelius T, Wilcke R, Dahlgren P, Nikulin G, Villaume S, Undén P and Kållberg P “A new high-reso-
140814 Vulturius G ”Klimatanpassning och det svenska
lution European region reanalysis dataset for RCM evaluation
skogsbruket”, Workshop om klimatförändring och anpassn-
and calibration – first tests and comparison to other datasets”
ing, Norra Skogsägare, Gallejaur, Sweden
3rd International Lund Regional-scale climate modelling workshop, Lund, Sweden
140825 Vulturius G, Gerger Swartling Å and André K “A
quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of climate change
140616-19 Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Samuelsson P, Kupiainen
communication in promoting engagement with adaptation”,
M, Hansson U and Jones C. “Differences in future European
Third Nordic Adaptation Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark
climate change between an RCM ensemble and the underlying GCMs” 3rd International Lund Regional-scale climate
140826 Bruzell S, Olsson O, Gerger Swartling Å, André K,
modelling workshop, Lund, Sweden
Jönsson AM, Lagergren F, Samuelsson P and Vulturius G
”Taking science-stakeholder cooperation one step further:
140616-19 Kupiainen M “Accurate Boundary Conditions for
Experiences from the Swedish forest sector”, Third Nordic
Regional Climate Modeling” 3rd International Lund Regional-
Adaptation Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark
scale climate modelling workshop, Lund, Sweden
140826 Rummukainen M ”Towards a climate-proof future”,
140616-19 Lind P, Lindstedt D, Jones C and Kjellström E
Third Nordic Adaptation Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark
”Simulating extreme precipitation in the island of Crete with
36
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
Mistra-swecia
140826 Vulturius G, Gerger Swartling Å and André K, “Bar-
Applied Climatology (ECAC), Prague, Czech Republic
riers and enabling factors of climate change adaptation and
mitigation among Swedish forest owners”, Third Nordic Adap-
141017 Kupiainen M and Sanders V “Accurate Boundary
tation Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark
Conditions for Regional Climate Modeling” Research Day at
SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden
140827 Lagergren F and Jönsson A M, “Decisions and strategies in forestry related to weather extremes and climate
141021 Kjellström E ”Regnintensiteter i ett förändrat klimat
change”, Third Nordic Adaptation Conference, Copenhagen,
– senaste nytt om klimatscenarier” FVI(Föreningen Vatten),
Denmark
Royal Coin Cabinet, Stockholm, Sweden
140830 Rummukainen M ”Vi förändrar klimatet”, Framtids-
141104 Rummukainen M ”Ilmastonmuutos, kaupungit ja
veckan, Kristianstad, Sweden
yritykset”, Ilmastokumppanit, Helsinki, Finland
140916 Rummukainen M ”Extremer”, Jordbruksverket,
141105 Rummukainen M ”IPCC, klimatförändringar och kli-
Jönköping, Sweden
mateffekter”, Kreativum, Karlshamn, Sweden
140924 Gerger Swartling Å, Carlsen H and Benzie M, ”Klimat-
141111 Rummukainen M, panel debate on Building sustain-
effekter i omvärlden: hur påverkas Sverige?” Klimatanpassn-
ability, Stockholm, Sweden
ing 2014, Stockholm, Sweden
141112 Rummukainen M ”Framtida klimat i Östergötland”,
141006 Olsson O “The need for forestry to understand and
Östergötland County Administrative Board and Swedish Forest
respond to indirect impacts of climate change” The XXIV
Agency, Linköping, Sweden
International Union of Forestry Research Organizations (IUFRO)
World Congress, Salt Lake City, USA
141130 Jönsson AM, ”Biologisk mångfald och klimatanpassning – vad säger forskningen?” Mistra SWECIA's round-table
141007 Vulturius G, Gerger Swartling, Å and André, K,
discussion “Klimatanpassad naturvård i skogslandskapet”, SEI,
“Explaining Differences in Perception of Climate Risks And
Stockholm, Sweden
Adaptation Measures Among Forest Owners And Forestry Advisors”, The XXIV IUFRO World Congress, Salt Lake City, USA
141203 Hieronymus J ”The evolution of delta13C during oceanic anoxic events - implications of external sources and sinks”
141007 Wilcke R, Nikulin G, Bärring L and Kjellström E, “Cli-
SFB 754 colloquium, GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany
mate change signal in an ensemble of bias-corrected regional
climate scenarios for Europe”, 14th EMS Annual Meeting &
Events
10th European Conference on Applied Climatology (ECAC),
140403 Debate “Hur blir klimathotet hett?” Lund University,
Prague, Czech Republic
Lund, Sweden
141010 Jönsson A M and Gerger Swartling Å “Reflections of
140416 After-work “IPCC:s klimatrapporter”, Stockholm,
science-stakeholder interactions research programme within
Sweden
Swedish forestry”, The XXIV IUFRO World Congress, Salt Lake
City, USA
140616-19 Conference “21st Century Challenges in Regional
Climate Modelling”, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
141010 Vulturius G, Gerger Swartling Å and André K, “Effectiveness of Climate Change Communication in Promoting
140929 Round-table discussion “Klimatanpassad naturvård i
Engagement With Climate Science And Adaptation Among
skogslandskapet”, SEI, Stockholm, Sweden
Forestry Stakeholders”, The XXIV IUFRO World Congress, Salt
Lake City, USA
141010 Workshop “Svenskt skogsbruk möter klimatförändringar”, SEI, Stockholm, Sweden
141010 Wilcke R, Bärring L and Mendlik T, “Selecting an optimum subset of climate models for climate impact studies”,
14th EMS Annual Meeting & 10th European Conference on
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
37
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others
May W, Meier A and Rummukainen M, 2014, Impacts of
Christensen J H, Rummukainen M, Christensen O B, Kjellström
soil-moisture feedbacks on tropical precipitation in CMIP5
K, Boberg F and Drews M, 2014, Regional Climate and Earth
projections obtained from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment, EGU
System Models – Added Value Revisited, International Baltic
General Assembly Conference Abstracts 16:3567
Earth Secretariat Publication 3:14
Kuylenstierna J, Gerger Swartling Å, Vulturius, G, Olsson O
Göransson T and Rummukainen M, 2014, Climate Services
and Repinski P, 2014, Klimatanpassning högaktuellt inom
– Mapping of Providers and Purveyors in the Netherlands
svenskt skogsbruk, debate article in Skogsaktuellt
and Sweden, CEC Report 01, Centre for Environmental and
Climate Research at Lund University, Lund, 100 p
Rummukainen M, 2014, Towards a climate-proofed future
in Third Nordic International Conference on Climate Change
Hall M, Rummukainen M, Ericsson K, Lund E, Sjöstedt V and
Adaptation, Copenhagen 2014, Abstracts p 76
Ödman A, 2014, Towards a climate secured Scania in Third
Nordic International Conference on Climate Change Adapta-
Rummukainen M, Bruzell S and Holm H, Klimatförändringens
tion, Copenhagen 2014, Abstracts p 95
effekter, vår sårbarhet och möjlig anpassning, Mistra-SWECIA
popular summary no 2 2014
Hassler J and Krusell P, Optimal beskattning av fossila bränslen,
Mistra- SWECIA popular summary no 1 2014
Rummukainen M, Bruzell S and Holm H, Minskade utsläpp av
växthusgaser och ekonomisk tillväxt, Mistra-SWECIA popular
Hassler J and Krusell P, The climate and the economy, Mistra-
summary no 3 2014
SWECIA report no 5
Wu M, Smith B, Schurgers G, Siltberg J, Rummukainen M,
Hassler J, Krusell P and Nycander J, Kyotoprotokollet har varit
Samuelsson P and Jansson C, 2014, Potential mechanism
direkt skadligt – byt spår, DN debate 2 Novembre 2014
of vegetation-induced reduction in tropical rainfall in Africa:
Analysis based on regional Earth system model simulations,
Jönsson A M, 2014, Klimatanpassad skogsskötsel, Skogsmäs-
International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication 3:78
taren no 1-14:10-11
Lagergren F, Klimateffekter och anpassningsstrategier i svenskt
skogsbruk - exempel Holmen skog, Mistra-SWECIA report no 6
38
Mistra-Swecia Annual Report 2014
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Annual report 2014
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