Essays in Empirical Labour Economics Lalaina Hirvonen Family Background, Gender and Earnings

Essays in Empirical Labour Economics
Family Background, Gender and Earnings
Lalaina Hirvonen
©Lalaina Hirvonen, Stockholm 2010
ISSN 0283-8222
ISBN 978-91-7447-015-4
Printed in Sweden by PrintCenter US-AB, City 2010
Distributor: Swedish Institute for Social Research
Ho an’ i Dada sy Neny,
Lala sy Hanta Vololona
Randriamanantena
Reijolle
Contents
ABSTRACT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
INTRODUCTION
Essay I
INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY AMONG SWEDISH
DAUGHTERS AND SONS
Evidence from Sweden and a Comparison with the United
States
Essay II
THE EFFECT OF CHILDREN ON EARNINGS USING AN
EXOGENOUS VARIATION IN FAMILY SIZE
Swedish Evidence
Essay III
ACCOUNTING FOR INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS
PERSISTENCE
Can We Distinguish Between Education, Skills and Health?
Abstract
All three essays in this thesis are concerned with the interrelation of
family, gender and labour market outcomes.
The first paper investigates family earnings mobility between parents
and sons, and parents and daughters, highlighting the role of assortative
mating. The results suggest that daughters tend to be more mobile than
sons. I also find that Sweden has a higher degree of mobility compared
to the U.S., and that assortative mating is an important underlying
channel for earnings transmission. The difference in mobility between
the two countries does not inherently depend on factors affecting the
marriage match. Moreover, adult economic outcomes are more
dependent on family background for those at the lower end of the
earnings distribution.
The second study analyses the long-run effects of an increase in family
size on the 1980-2005 labour market outcomes of Swedish men and
women. The decision to have (more) children is dependent on current
and future labour market prospects. I use the exogenous variations in the
sex composition of the first two children to overcome this endogeneity
problem. My findings suggest that having an additional child has a
stronger negative impact on earnings than on participation. However,
mothers experience a substantial but not complete long-term recovery in
earnings.
The third paper illustrates the difficulty in disentangling the underlying
channels of intergenerational earnings persistence using a path analysis
model. On closer examination, such a model has a potential shortcoming
since the covariates are correlated to other unobserved factors. The
results suggest that education is the most influential mechanism in the
earnings transmission process, while IQ, mental ability and BMI are of
secondary importance. However, education is sensitive to the inclusion
of other covariates and the order in which these are entered into the
equation.
Acknowledgements
My interest in economics grew when I attended the mandatory Swedish
as a foreign language course at Stockholm University. In those days, one
of the topics in the curriculum was Swedish Civics. I remember the
question I had to discuss during the Swedish oral exam, it was about
household services and “the maid debate” (the debate on domestic work
that erupted at the beginning of the 1990s when a proposed reform
leading to tax credits for household services was introduced). This was
of course a way for the teacher to test my general knowledge of the
Swedish system and to judge my ability to conduct a “politically relevant”
discussion in Swedish.
Later on, when I applied to different undergraduate courses, an
opportunity to attend a course in economics emerged leading to my
studies in economics and statistics. Economics was on a totally different
wavelength compared to the subjects I had studied, linguistics and
translation.
At first I was fascinated by macroeconomics, until I attended an
undergraduate course on labour economics, where I met my present
thesis supervisor, Anders Björklund, for the first time. At the end of the
course, my friend Maria and I wrote about the returns of education for
different fields of education. This was for our B. A. thesis and we had
the privilege of having Åsa Rosén as our advisor. It was at this time that
I first came into contact with the Swedish Institute for Social Research.
The empirical econometric course taught by Peter Skogman and
Mahmood Arai, and working on the Level of Living Survey dataset for
my master’s thesis as well as using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
as a research assistant, inspired me to try my wings and conduct my own
research.
Now my thesis is ready and I am indebted to many people who have
been supportive and helpful along the way.
This thesis would not have seen the light of day without the advice,
assistance and expert knowledge of my advisor Anders Björklund. Not
only has he shared his knowledge with me, he has also taken the time to
help me through the different stages from idea to complete paper, and I
am extremely grateful for his guidance and support.
I would also like to thank Åsa Rosén and Marianne Sundström for all
their help, encouragement and support. They have taken the time to read
and discuss my papers and they have always been available when I have
needed advice on different matters.
Thank you also to Anders Stenberg for being especially generous with
his time and helpful insights concerning the drafts of my papers. I also
enjoyed working as an assistant teacher with Anders, and our discussions
on the French language and France.
Moreover, I have appreciated the opportunity of working in the
stimulating environment of the Swedish Institute for Social Research,
with its spirit of collaboration. I would like to thank Matthew Lindquist,
Markus Jäntti and Mikael Lindhal for sharing their knowledge with me at
different stages of my work on my papers. Their constructive comments
have helped improve the quality of this thesis.
Tuomas Pekkarinen, the discussant at my final seminar, provided
much appreciated comments and suggestions. I am also grateful to Marie
Evertsson and Tommy Ferrarini for kindly offering to read drafts of my
papers and for providing useful references from sociological literature.
Let me also thank Ante Farm, Anne-Maj Folmer-Hansen, Jean Parr,
Inger Höglund and Ingela Arvidsson who have never hesitated to offer
their administrative help in different matters.
I would also like to thank Louise Ratford for her skilful review of my
English, and Kristian Koerselman, Markus Jäntti and Martin Sjölander
for kindly providing much needed computer assistance at short notice.
While participating in the PhD programme, I have been fortunate to
meet and get to know people who have contributed in different ways to
making my everyday struggles easier to endure. I would not have got
through the pressures of the first few years of the programme without
the help and friendly company of Patrik, Christer, Johan and the girls in
corridor F: Helena P., Gabriella, Pernilla, Helena and Åsa O.
I would also like to thank my colleagues, both economists and
sociologists, who all contributed to a pleasant and easygoing atmosphere,
in particular Marieke, Marta, Krister, Lena, Jon, Therese, Cecilia and
Lotta.
The road has not always been easy but the long process of writing a
dissertation has taught me a lot more than just the empirical tools to
study research questions. It has provided me with experiences that have
helped me to develop self-knowledge and a sense of prioritization. In the
middle of everyday stress and deadlines, I have also been able to enjoy
the company of Susan, Karin, Jenny and Anders B. for a great workout
together.
A special thank you goes to Susan, Aycan and Hans for being such
great friends during my later years at Sofi. Thanks for all the good times
and laughter, but also for the encouragements and advices, for taking the
time to listen and to discuss my papers.
During my struggle with my graduate studies, I have also received
tremendous support from my friends and relatives outside the academic
world. I am especially grateful to Henrik and Jaana, Paul and Helen as
well as Georg and Carina for your understanding, and for letting your
doors always remain open for me, whether I have needed to resolve
problems, needed help with my English or have simply needed company.
I wish to thank Pearl and Roland for their continuous support. Pearl
has been like a mother to me when I came to Sweden, and has always
been there for me through the hard times and the good times as well.
I would not have managed to sit so many hours in front of the
computer had it not been for the time I have spent having fun with
Jaana, Merrilee and Helen during our card making and scrapbook
evenings. Thank you for your friendship and for all the creative support.
I would also like to thank Martin and Solange for their friendship and
hospitality. Thank you for being so generous with your time and for
helping us out when we got into trouble with the computer.
Despite the long distance between us, I am thankful that I still receive
warm and unfailing support from my oldest and dearest friends Jenny,
Berline and Mialy. Thank you for all the great times we have spent
together, for understanding my busy schedule, and for still keeping in
touch.
Finally, thank you dear parents for showing me the importance of
education, for making many sacrifices so that I would have a good start
in life. And to my brothers Rado and Zo, thank you for all the precious
and sunny memories of our times together, which I keep in my heart.
Dada sy Neny, Rado sy Zo, thank you for believing in me, for your
constant encouragement and your prayerful support.
This thesis would have come to nothing had it not for the invaluable
support and faith that Reijo has had in me. Reijo has been my safe haven
in the middle of the storms and a great source of courage during trying
times. Thank you for always letting me and my studies go first. I know it
has not always been easy but you have put up with me throughout. I
could never have done it without you. You are my soulmate and I love
you.
And last but not least, I thank my Heavenly Father for all His
blessings, and for leading me throughout this incredible journey. May I
always bring honour to His name.
Stockholm, February 2010
Lalaina Hirvonen
Introduction
This thesis consists of three self-contained but interrelated empirical
papers covering different topics: the intergenerational mobility among
Swedish sons and daughters, the effect of children on men’s and
women’s earnings, and the mechanisms behind the intergenerational
earnings persistence. Accordingly, all three papers are concerned with
family, labour market outcomes and gender differentials. In this
introduction I begin with a more general outline of the research
traditions related to my papers, and thereafter proceed with a short
presentation of the contribution of each paper.
Intergenerational mobility is one of the aspects of equality of
opportunity. A strong association between incomes across generations
indicates weak intergenerational mobility and a persistence of inequality,
which may mean that those born to poorer parents have restricted life
chances and do not achieve their economic potential. However, equality
of opportunity does not imply complete intergenerational income
mobility, nor does it require society to eliminate all sources of economic
resemblance between parents and children. Instead, equality of
opportunity is considered to prevail in society if the chances that
individuals have to succeed depend only on their own efforts and not on
extraneous circumstances that may impede or increase those chances
(Roemer, 1998 and 2004, Jencks and Tach, 2006).
Sociologists and economists have long contributed to the extensive
literature on intergenerational mobility. While sociologists have often
examined this issue from the viewpoint of the individual's social class,
economists have studied income and earnings as channels through which
socioeconomic status is transmitted across generations (Eriksson and
Goldthorpe, 1992, Solon, 1999).
Recent research on intergenerational income mobility has focused
mostly on improving the measurement of the extent of mobility and on
cross-country comparisons across time (See Corak, 2006, Björklund and
Jännti, 2009 for an overview). Empirically, socioeconomic mobility can
be measured using two distinct types of correlation: the intergenerational
correlation and the sibling correlation. The intergenerational correlation
in earnings, to which my studies are confined, provides information
about the degree of responsiveness of offspring’s earnings with respect
to a change in parental earnings. The sibling correlation in earnings is a
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broader measure of intergenerational resemblance. It summarizes influences common to siblings in the same family, not only parental characteristics but also community characteristics and neighbourhood norms
which siblings normally share. However, a sibling correlation leaves out
all family influences not shared by siblings. Psychologists and economists, for instance, argue that the non-shared influences may be important since birth order has a great deal of influence over the frequency and
type of interaction that exists between parents and children (Sulloway,
1997, Black, Devereux and Salvanes, 2005).
In both economics and sociology, most of the studies focus on the
father-son relationship. It is reasonable to say that a considerable part of
the picture is missing by only taking the intergenerational link between
fathers and sons into consideration since the socioeconomic
characteristics of both parents affect the mobility patterns of their
offspring. The gender issue is obviously relevant for the goals of equality
of opportunity and equality of outcome that today’s society strives to
attain. This encompasses equality of opportunity for daughters as well as
sons, which I study in my first and third papers and gender equality for
men and women, which I consider in my second paper.
Another strand of literature that my research is related to is the
classical topic of the gender differentials. A wave of recent studies has
established the persistence of a gender wage gap in most industrialized
countries (Blau and Kahn, 2003). According to the Level of Living
Surveys, the gender wage gap in Sweden has constantly been in the range
0.17-0.19 log points since 1981. Recent Swedish official statistics indicate
that women's wages on average are about 18 percent lower than men's
(SCB, 2008). This may seem small in comparison to the pay differentials
between men and women in other countries, but this figure is still
substantial, considering the small wage dispersion in Sweden. Likewise,
the equality of opportunity might also pave the way towards gender
equality. It has often been suggested that the gender gaps in the labour
market reflect the negative effect of motherhood on female labour
supply (Waldfogel, 1998). The fact that parenthood affects women in
many different ways compared to men, not least in the labour market,
risks also to stand in the way of women when it comes to enjoying the
same opportunities as their male counterparts. The subject of fertility
and female labour force participation has received attention in other
disciplines such as demography and sociology, and in economics as well
(Bumpass, 1990, Hoem and Hoem, 1998, Mincer, 1962).
Literature on the interplay between fertility and female labour force
participation is closely linked to studies on the welfare state (Sundström
and Stafford, 1992, Ferrarini, 2006). The high labour force participation
of women goes hand in hand with the expansion of the welfare state.
Sweden is often seen as one of the more gender equal countries in the
14
world, with family-friendly policies and strong female participation in the
labour market and political representation (Gornick and Meyer, 2003,
Korpi, 2000).
Other strands of literature in this field call into question the impact of
family-friendly policies with regard to the position of women in the
labour market. It might be the case that generous parental leave and high
compensation rates, which encourage mothers to take considerable time
off work, may have a reverse effect on the status of women in the labour
market. It is possible that lower career chances for women may be a
consequence of the Swedish family-friendly policies (Hakim, 2000,
Gupta, Smith and Verner, 2008). For instance, a relatively large share of
Swedish women work part-time to some extent as a result of legislated
partial parental leave (Sundström, 1997, Mandel and Semyonov, 2006).
My second study makes some contribution to this discussion on fertility,
family policies and the gender gap.
One of numerous aspects of the equality of opportunity might be
reflected in marriage sorting. Marriage markets and intergenerational
mobility are connected through various channels. Low rates of
assortative mating may increase mobility by spreading economic
resources across more households (Kremer, 1997). The connection
between overall levels of inequality and the degree of sorting in marriage
markets can be measured using the correlation of spouses’ earnings.
There is a concern that marriage patterns may contribute to growing
economic and educational inequalities (Kremer 1997; Mare 2000).
Changes in assortative marriage patterns are indicators of changes in the
rigidity of social boundaries and are important components of changes in
the makeup of families and households, regardless of whether increases
in the earnings resemblance of spouses increase inequality for future
generations. The first paper in this thesis looks into the role of
assortative mating in the context of socioeconomic mobility.
Another avenue to explore to gain more information about the equality of opportunity is the extent of intergenerational mobility in different
parts of the earnings distribution. Although the average measure of socioeconomic mobility often used in previous studies is informative, a
more analytical way to improve our understanding of the mobility process is to look at the top and the bottom of the earnings distribution, and
peel the layers off to obtain a more relevant and hopefully a better understanding of society. My papers combine different perspectives to uncover possible differences in the degree of mobility for those at the extreme of the earnings distribution. Answering questions such as: “are
sons and daughters who belong to the lower end of the earnings distribution as mobile as those who are at the top?” is of particularly high
policy relevance. Likewise, it serves to assess whether an increase in parents’ earnings or in an individual’s level of education raises earnings in a
15
different way for offspring at the bottom of the earnings distribution as
compared to those at the top. This implies that those born of rich versus
poor parents would enjoy the same opportunities in the labour market
and that in particular, their family’s socioeconomic background would
not interfere with later outcomes nor limit their life chances later on in
life.
Using the appropriate data for the analysis of a specific research
question is crucial for all empirical studies. In all the empirical analyses in
this thesis, I have been fortunate to have access to the most suitable data
for the study of intergenerational earnings mobility. I have used a highquality Swedish data set which originates from Statistics Sweden’s
population registers. The multigenerational nature of the data has the
advantage of providing a clear identification of both parents and
offspring, and helps to match them with each other. In addition, the data
offers a large representative sample that adds statistical strength to the
results. Furthermore, the data is matched with tax registers and
educational registers to provide detailed measures of income and
education. In the third paper, I have also benefited from the unique
information from the Swedish Military Enlistment data set to access
important measures of skills for the analysis of the underlying
mechanisms behind the persistence in earnings.
Paper I
Intergenerational Mobility Among Swedish Daughters and Sons: Evidence from
Sweden and a Comparison with the United States.
It has been complicated to measure and to include women’s earnings in
the intergenerational analysis since female labour force participation was
still low in the 1970s. In this paper, I use family earnings as the sum of
the father’s and mother’s earnings to get around this problem. Also,
instead of studying only sons, I include daughters in the analysis to
balance findings in the previous literature. Since the marriage market may
reshuffle the economic (dis)advantages from the family of origin,
assortative mating clearly influences the correlation between the family
earnings of parent and children. This study investigates whether marriage
matching enhances the socioeconomic mobility of daughters.
Since the United States and Sweden have long been known to represent two extreme cases in a comparison of income inequality among
developed countries, I consider how they relate to each other in terms of
intergenerational transmission of family income. Chadwick and Solon
16
(2002) find, using U.S. data, that a daughter’s husbands’ earnings are
correlated with her parents’ earnings.
My results suggest that Swedish sons and daughters exhibit a rather
similar scheme of intergenerational earnings transmission. However,
daughters tend to be slightly more mobile than sons. My findings
corroborate previous research that Sweden has a higher degree of
mobility compared to the U.S. Assortative mating has also been revealed
to play an important role as a channel through which economic status is
transmitted across generations in Sweden. Nonetheless, the difference in
intergenerational mobility patterns between the two countries does not,
inherently, depend on factors that affect the marriage match. Thus, other
explanations for the cross-difference between the U.S. and Sweden must
be found elsewhere.
Paper II
The Effect of Children on Earnings Using an Exogenous Variation in Family Size:
Swedish Evidence
The decision to have (more) children is dependent on current and future
labour market prospects. This issue is primarily relevant for women who
strive to combine family life with a labour market career. To study the
long-run causal effect of fertility on participation and earnings, I use the
fact that parents first endowed with two children of the same sex tend to
proceed to higher parity in the hope of having a third child of the
missing sex. This identification strategy was originally applied by Angrist
and Evans (1998) on U.S. data, where they find negative short-term
effects of an increase in family size on female labour supply.
This method makes use of a natural experiment when trying to
understand the long-term effect of having one more child on men’s and
women’s labour market outcomes. Researchers often have to resort to
natural experiments in order to remedy the problem of not being able to
control for other unobserved factors that are correlated with the
outcome variables in the study of causal effects. It is an experiment
which mimics what scientists do in a laboratory when they administer a
drug on a treatment group and simultaneously observe a control group.
It is a natural experiment because the treatment, in this case, is assigned
by nature as opposed to a random assignment implemented by the
scientist himself.
Swedish men and women have a preference for mixed-sex siblings instead of two boys or two girls. This might seem incompatible with the
17
fact that Sweden is a country with high gender equality and that female
labour force participation is almost on a par with its male counterpart.
However, a demographic study by Andersson, Hank, Rønsen and Vikat
(2006) using Swedish data from 1960 to 2000, confirms the presence of
parental preferences in a balanced sibling sex composition. My study
covers a lengthy period of time, 1980-2005, and gives a preview of the
long-term consequences of childbearing on women's careers and lifetime
earnings. To my knowledge, it is the first study to use exogenous variation to examine this issue with Swedish data.
My findings suggest that having an additional child has a stronger
negative impact on wages than on participation. However, mothers
experience a gradual but not complete recovery in earnings in the long
run. Moreover, my study suggests that in all probability it is mechanisms
other than childbearing that lie behind the gender wage gap in Sweden.
These results remain stable despite changes in individuals’ preferences
and different labour market conditions, as well as the rapid expansion of
Swedish family policies.
Paper III
Accounting for Intergenerational Earnings Persistence: Can We Distinguish Between
Education, Skills and Health?
As mentioned above, recent economics literature on intergenerational
income mobility has provided interesting insights and an enhancing
picture of cross-national patterns in mobility. Subsequently, the next step
for researchers is to uncover the mechanisms underlying these
differentials. One seemingly appealing approach is to formulate and
estimate a recursive model in which parental earnings have a direct
impact on the offspring’s earnings, but also have an impact via other
factors such as education. A handful of contemporary papers have
applied this approach.
This paper illustrates the difficulty in disentangling the impact of education, cognitive and non-cognitive abilities as well as health on the
transmission of earnings persistence, by means of a path analysis model.
A close examination of this approach suggests that such a model has
potential shortcomings since the covariates are correlated with each
other and also with other factors not observed in the analysis. The results show that it is not possible to discern the effect of IQ and mental
ability from education. Education is revealed to be the most important
mediating variable between a father’s earnings and his son’s earnings.
18
Meanwhile, education is also extremely sensitive to the inclusion of other
covariates and the order in which these are entered into the equation. To
be more specific, considering education alone as a transmission mechanism appears to overstate its impact in the transference of economic
status. Therefore, studying various factors together, as opposed to solely
focusing on one factor in the analysis, gives a broader picture of the underlying structure of intergenerational transmission.
19
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