MANITOBA CATTLE AND BEEF INDUSTRY 2014 - 2015

MANITOBA
CATTLE AND BEEF
INDUSTRY
2014 - 2015
Janet Honey
Prepared for
Department of Agribusiness and Agricultural Economics
University of Manitoba
CONTENTS
MANITOBA CATTLE AND BEEF INDUSTRY:
Page
History
……………………………………………………………………………………2
Farm Type
……………………………………………………………………………………2
Inventory
……………………………………………………………………………………3
Feed Use
……………………………………………………………………………………4
Cattle Sales and Farm Cash Receipts
……………………………………………………4
Cattle Slaughter and Beef Processing
……………………………………………………5
Beef Consumption ……………………………………………………………………………5
Trade ……………………………………………………………………………………………6
Prices ……………………………………………………………………………………………7
Future ……………………………………………………………………………………………7
CATTLE AND BEEF STATISTICS
……………………………………………………8
BEEF CATTLE INDUSTRY FLOW CHART
CATTLE TRADE MAPS
……………………………………………9
……………………………………………………..……………10
Data Sources:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Bank of Canada
Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Canfax
Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development
Manitoba Auction Markets
Statistics Canada
United States Department of Agriculture
September 2015
1
MANITOBA’S CATTLE AND BEEF INDUSTRY
History:
Pre-World War II:
Beef cattle have always been an important farm
commodity in Manitoba. Early cattle were dual purpose
for meat and milk. The first count of cattle in the
province was in 1881 when there were 60,000 cattle and
calves. The inventory increased to 812,000 head in
1938, which included 420,000 cows, 93% of which were
used for milk production.
Post-World War II:
By the 1950s, there were more breeds of cattle
being produced for beef only, but these were early
maturing, stocky and fat. This changed in the late 1960s
and 1970s in response to consumer demand for less fat
in beef, when larger exotic-cross cattle were developed
to provide leaner meat and a higher dressing
percentage. In the late 1970s and 1980s, Manitoba lost
much of its cattle finishing and slaughter industry to
Alberta, where new and renovated plants made cattle
slaughter and beef production more efficient.
Cattle production in North America tends to follow
10-14 year cycles. According to Statistics Canada data,
at the peak of the cycle in the1940s, there were 0.83
million beef and dairy cattle and calves on Manitoba
farms in 1945, while at the peaks in 1965 and 1975
there were 1.18 million and 1.46 million respectively. It
took until 2002 for the 1975 level to be overtaken.
According to Statistics Canada data, Manitoba’s
beef cow herd increased fairly steadily at an average
annual rate of about 2% from 1987 until 1992. Cow
numbers then rose by an annual average of 6% to 1997,
but decreased by 1% in both 1998 and 1999. The beef
cow herd rose by 20% from mid 2000 to a record high
on July 1, 2006, but had fallen again by 34% by 2015.
TOTAL CATTLE ON MANITOBA FARMS
1891- 2015
2000
Cattle cycle is usually 10-14 years
1800
2005 peak at 1.735 million head (BSE)
1600
1975 peak at 1.46 million head
1400
1965 peak at 1.18 million head
1200
1000
1997 peak at 1.45 million head
800
600
400
200
July 1, 2015 total was 1.20 million head, 1.6% below the 2014 level and 30.8% below the peak year 2005
0
1891
1901
11
21
31
41
51
61
YEAR
71
81
91
2001
11
D ata source: Statis tics Canada
VALUE OF MANITOBA LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
BY TYPE, 1971- 2014
2400
OTHER LIVESTOCK
2200
P.M.U.
POULTRY
2000
DAIRY
1800
HOGS
1600
CATTLE
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 11 13
YEAR
Data source: Statistics Canada, author’s estimates
MANITOBA FARM CASH RECEIPTS
BY COMMODITY, 2011 and 2014
OTHER LIVESTOCK
OTHER CROPS
CANARY SEED
FRUIT
FUR
SHEEP/LAMBS
HAY (exports)
SUNFLOWERS
HATCHERIES
DRY PEAS
RYE
HONEY
FORAGE/GRASS SEED
TURKEYS
FLAXSEED
VEGETABLES
BARLEY
FLOR, NURSERY, SOD
DRY BEANS
OATS
MEAT CHICKEN
EGGS
CORN
POTATOES
SOYBEANS
DAIRY
CATTLE
WHEAT
PIGS
CANOLA
2014
2011
Pigs were the most valuable commodity from 1999 to 2007
0
100 200 300 400 500
600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
MILLION DOLLARS
Data source: Statistics Canada
AREA OF TAME HAY AND NUMBER OF BEEF COWS
MANITOBA, 1931-2015
Farm Type:
2,500
700
With large areas of natural grasslands, Manitoba
has the land base to support cow-calf production. Most
commercial beef cattle operations are cow-calf with
many producers retaining and/or buying calves for
further feeding to be sold as "stockers", "short-keeps" or
for slaughter. About 2% of commercial operations are
feedlots, the largest of which expanded to a one-time
capacity of 12,500 head in fall 2006.
According to Statistics Canada, of the 1,122,100 beef cattle on Manitoba farms in mid2015, 857,300 million head or 76.4% were on cow-calf operations, 197,500 head or 17.6%
Number of Beef Cows (Y2)
600
Harvested Area of Tame Hay (Y1)
2,000
500
1,500
400
300
1,000
200
500
100
0
0
1931
41
51
61
71
YEAR
2
81
91
2001
11
were on feeder/stocker operations and 67,300 head or 6.0% were on feeding operations. The
number of cattle on feed was slightly higher than in 2014 due mainly to lower feed costs.
Inventory:
There were 574,000 beef cows on Manitoba farms in mid-2002, but this number
increased to 680,000 head by mid-2006 because of the
BEEF COWS ON FARMS BY PROVINCE
1991-2015
American border closure to Canadian cattle in May 2003
due to Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) found
in a Canadian cow. Manitoba’s reliance on the United
States market for almost all of its slaughter cattle sales
made it difficult for producers to find alternative markets
in Canada while the border was closed, particularly for
cull cows and bulls, so more of these animals than usual
remained on Manitoba farms.
The border opened to cattle under 30 months in
July 2005. The option to export younger slaughter cattle
BEEF COWS BY PROVINCE
to the U.S. meant Manitoba producers no longer had to
JULY 1, 2010 and JULY 1, 2015
rely on Canadian slaughter plants, particularly those in
Alberta, for the sale of their finished cattle.
Manitoba’s beef cow herd fell to 448,300 head on
July 1, 2015, 2.2% below the mid-2014 level and the
smallest since 1993. The Manitoba beef cow herd is still
the third largest in Canada, after Alberta and
Saskatchewan, with 11.8% of the nation's beef cows
and 1.3% of total North American beef cows in 2015.
The diminishing Manitoba cow herd can be partly
attributed to adverse weather conditions. For six years,
CATTLE ON MANITOBA FEEDING OPERATIONS
flooding in various parts of the Interlake and Westlake
JANUARY 1 AND JULY 1, 1995-2015
cow-calf areas prevented or hampered hay cutting and
damaged pasture land. Drought and excess moisture in
other areas reduced hay yields. Producers were forced
to sell some or all of their cows. Record-high cattle
prices in 2014 also encouraged some producers to sell
their herds as they could capitalize on the strong market.
On July 1, 2015, Manitoba cattle farms had
141,800 feeder cattle, aged one year and over, of which
60,200 were heifers and 81,600 were steers. The
number of heifers was up by 2,400 head from a year
FEEDER CATTLE/CALF MARKETINGS BY MONTH
MANITOBA AUCTION MARKETS, 2004 - 2015
earlier, while steers rose by 5,300 head. It is likely that
high cattle prices in 2014 encouraged some producers
Calf sales
to keep more calves for further feeding. Calves (under
one year old) in feedlots increased from 21,300 head in
Yearling sales
Short-keep sales
January 2014 to 22,400 head in January 2015.
Over half the feeders are expected to have been sold at
the end of summer as “short-keeps”, the remainder will
be finished to slaughter weight. About 62,600 of the
feeder cattle over one year old were in feedlots on July
1, 2015 compared to 63,200 head on July 1, 2014.
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
MANITOBA
SASKATCHEWAN
ALBERTA
0
OTHER PROV.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 10 11 12 13 14 15
YEAR
Data source: Statistics Canada
(%, ‘000 head)
SASKATCHEWAN 29.2% 1195.9
SASKATCHEWAN 30.2% 1147
ATLANTIC PROV. 1.1% 43.2
ATLANTIC PROV. 1.1% 46.1
QUEBEC 4.7% 177.8
QUEBEC 5.0% 203.1
ONTARIO 7.3% 299.6
ONTARIO 7.3% 276.3
MANITOBA 12.5% 512
MANITOBA 11.8% 448.3
B.C. 4.9% 201.6
B.C. 5.0% 190.5
ALBERTA 39.8% 1509.1
ALBERTA 40.0% 1637.7
2015
2010
Data Source:Statistics Canada
120
110
Calves
100
Heifers
Steers
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan/96
Jan/98
Jan/00
Jan/02
Jan/04
Jan/06
Jan/08
Jan/10
Jan/12
Jan/14
Data source: Statistics Canada
100000
2004 - BSE
2005 - end of BSE
90000
2008 - COOL begins
2009 - COOL
80000
2012 - COOL
2013 - COOL
70000
2014 - high prices, lower C$
2015 - high prices, even lower C$
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Data source: Manitoba Auction Markets, MAFRD
3
May
Jun
Jul
MONTH
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feed Use:
The beef cattle industry used roughly $205 million of feed in 2014. Only about one-fifth
to one quarter of the calves produced in the province annually are finished to slaughter-weight.
If all the calves in Manitoba were finished instead of being shipped out as stockers/feeders or
calves, then the value of feed consumed in 2014 would have been about 70% higher.
On July 12, 2007, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency implemented the enhanced
feed ban that completely bars the use of specified risk
CATTLE PRODUCTION AND SLAUGHTER, MANITOBA
materials (SRMs) for BSE in animal feed, pet food and
1976 - 2014
fertilizer. The rule aligned Canada's standards with those
of the European Union.
Inspected Slaughter in Manitoba
600
Cattle Production (slaughter + net exports + inventory change)
500
400
Cattle Sales and Farm Cash Receipts:
Since Manitoba's cattle slaughter capacity
declined by over 97% from 1976 to 2001, most of the
beef cattle produced in Manitoba have to be sold out of
the province. In 2002 (prior to the U.S. border closure in
May 2003), 103,400 finished cattle, 103,900 cull cows
and bulls, 54,000 feeder cattle and 700 breeding stock
were exported from Manitoba ports of exit to the United
States. About 27,500 slaughter cattle and 310,000
feeder cattle and calves were sold mainly to Alberta and
Ontario. After cattle exports to the U.S. were banned in
2003, during 2004 and the first half of 2005, more cattle
were slaughtered in Manitoba and many more had to be
sent to other provinces, often at greatly reduced prices.
Manitoba cattle and calf prices increased
significantly when the U.S. border re-opened to cattle
under 30 months in mid July 2005.
The Manitoba cattle industry was hit again, not
only by a strong Canadian dollar from 2007 to autumn
2008 and again during 2009 to 2013, but also by the
introduction of mandatory Country of Origin Labelling
(mCOOL) in the United States on September 30, 2008.
The continuation of mCOOL, despite various World
Trade Organization rulings over the years that it be
abandonned, meant that many American feedlots and
slaughter plants stopped accepting Canadian feeder and
finished cattle or lowered prices for animals they bought.
In 2014, Manitoba's beef cattle industry sold
about 410,000 head either for slaughter (including cull
cows and bulls) or for feeding out of the province.
Roughly 60,000 Saskatchewan calves or feeders were
sold in Manitoba or exported via the province.
Annual farm cash receipts from Manitoba-origin
cattle/calf sales fell from almost $555 million in 2002 to
$273 million in 2004 due to BSE-limited markets for
cattle and lower cattle and calf prices. Cash receipts
rebounded to $552 million in 2006, but dropped to $438
300
200
100
0
76
78
80
82
84
86
90
92
94
96
98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
10
12
14
YEAR
ESTIMATED MOVEMENT OF MANITOBA CATTLE
1991 - 2014
UNITED STATES
400
WEST
EAST
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 10 11 12 13 14
YEAR
Datasource: AAFC, Statistics Canada, author’s estimates
CATTLE CASH RECEIPTS IN CURRENT AND 1970 $
MANITOBA, 1971- 2014
700
Cattle Farm Cash Receipts in current dollars
Cattle Farm Cash Receipts in constant 1970 dollars
600
500
Higher C$ 2009-2013
400
300
BSE 2003-2005
200
100
0
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
11
13
YEAR
Data source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada
CHANGE IN CATTLE RECEIPTS DUE TO EXCHANGE RATE
MANITOBA, 1971- 2014
250
1.6
Change in cattle FCR due to exchange rate (Y1)
Exchange rate (Y2)
1.5
200
1.4
150
1.3
100
1.2
50
1.1
0
1
-50
0.9
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
Data source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada
4
88
Data source: Statistics Canada, AAFC
85
87
89
91
93
YEAR
95
97
99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
11
13
million in 2009 and 2010 as a result of lower prices caused by mCOOL. Despite decreased
sales, higher average cattle prices in 2011 raised cash receipts to $453 million. Fewer calves
born and cattle sold meant lower farm cash receipts of $450 million in 2012 even though prices
had gone up. Higher cattle prices and increased cattle sales in 2013 raised cash receipts to
over $487 million. The falling Canadian dollar and record high North American cattle prices in
2014 elevated cash receipts to almost $700 million, a new record level, which was 21.7%
above the previous record of $575.2 million in 2001.
GRADE A STEER AND BARLEY PRICES IN 1970 $
MANITOBA, 1971- 2014
In 2013 (latest available), average net farm
operating income for beef cattle operations (51+% of
income from beef cattle) rose to $11,740/farm (over half
from program payments) from $11,430/farm in 2012, but
was below $18,770 in 2011 (over 80% from program
payments). In 2013, 40.9% of Manitoba beef farms had
either zero or negative net operating income compared
to 39.4% in 2012 and 41.4% in Alberta.
Higher average finished cattle prices in 2014
combined with lower feed and fuel costs meant margins
CATTLE/CALF SLAUGHTER BY REGION
for many cattle feeding operations rose in 2014.
2011 and 2014
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Deflated Grade A steer prices ($/cwt)
10
Deflated barley prices ($/tonne)
0
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
Data source: CANFAX, MAFRD, author’s estimates
93
95
97
99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
11
13
YEAR
(percent of Canadian slaughter)
2011
Cattle Slaughter and Beef Processing:
The total number of cattle slaughtered in
Manitoba packing plants peaked at 581,000 head in
1976. However, the closure of five major cattle slaughter
facilities after 1979 reduced local slaughter by 97% over
the next twenty years.
One small federally-inspected plant and 23
provincially-inspected plants in Manitoba slaughtered
only 21,000 cattle by 2006. The number of cattle
slaughtered declined further to about 11,800 head in
2011, 11,200 head in 2012, 10,610 head in 2013 and
10,240 in 2014. The average warm carcass weight of
slaughter cattle was roughly 710 lb. Beef production fell
to close to 7.3 million lb (warm carcass weight) in 2014.
The largest, licensed, multi-species slaughter
plant, True North Foods, located north of Carman is
expected to be killing 200 cattle per day by 2019. The
plant has applied for a federal licence.
5
QUEBEC/ATL. PROV. 8.4%
ONTARIO 22.7%
ONTARIO 20.6%
MB 0.3%
MB 0.4%
ALBERTA, SASK, B.C. 68.6%
ALBERTA, SASK, B.C. 66.8%
Data Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
CATTLE SLAUGHTER IN WESTERN CANADA
1982 - 2014
3000
B.C./Sask./Manitoba
Alberta
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 10 11 12 13 14
YEAR
Data source: AAFC
Beef Consumption:
Per capita beef consumption fell from a peak of
116 lb per person (carcass weight) in 1976 to a fairly
stable 70-75 lb per person in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Leaner beef is sold with less waste than in earlier years,
which explains some of the decline since the 1970s.
Canadians consumed an average of 60.5 lb of
beef and veal (carcass weight) in 2014, 1.8 lb less than
in 2013. Consumption in recent years is down from 69.8
lb per person in 2007, mainly due to higher beef prices.
2014
QUEBEC/ATL. PROV. 12.3%
MEAT CONSUMPTION IN CANADA
1976 - 2014
60
50
BEEF
VEAL
MUTTON AND LAMB
PORK
TURKEY
OFFAL
CHICKEN
40
30
20
10
0
76
78
80
82
Datasource: Statistics Canada
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
YEAR
98
'00
'02 '04 '06 '08
10
12
14
Trade:
Cattle: Manitoba was the largest cattle-exporting
EXPORTS OF MANITOBA CATTLE TO UNITED STATES
BY STATE, 2002, 2008, 2012-2014
province in Canada prior to 2003, but now lags Alberta
and Ontario. About 262,000 head valued at $269.9
million were shipped from Manitoba ports of exit in 2002.
From no cattle exports in 2004 due to the closed
American border, the number rose to a record 351,400
head worth $302.2 million in 2008. As cull cows and
bulls over 30 months were banned from American
slaughter plants until late 2007, exports to states such
as Minnesota and Wisconsin fell significantly between
2002 and 2007.
Due to mCOOL, American plants bought fewer
MANITOBA CATTLE & BEEF EXPORTS
TO OTHER COUNTRIES, 1992 - 2014
Manitoba fed cattle after 2008 than in the pre-COOL
year 2007. Cull cows and bulls can be used for
processed beef products, which are not subject to
mCOOL, so exports were not affected to the same
extent. Fewer finished Manitoba cattle were exported in
2014 than in 2013, but 7% more cows and bulls.
Feedlots in the U.S. bought more feeder cattle
and calves in 2014 than in the years, 2010 to 2013.
Manitoba shipped 104,200 feeder cattle and calves
valued at $148.5 million to the United States in 2014, up
from 76,200 head valued at $81.4 million in 2013. Only 6,410 finished cattle worth $12.4
million were exported in 2014 compared to 18,790 head valued at $29.7 million in 2013 and
well below 53,890 head valued at $60.3 million in 2009. Manitoba exported over 64,110 cull
cows and bulls worth $91.0 million in 2014, mostly to plants in Minnesota. Almost 3,300
breeding stock worth close to $6.8 million made up the
SEASONAL GRADE A STEER PRICES
MANITOBA, 2001, 2011- 2014
remaining cattle exports.
Total cattle exported in 2014 were up by 14.1%
from 2013 and the value rose by 42.0%.
Of all cattle exports to the United States in 2014,
38.0% went to Nebraska with the rest going to
Minnesota (35.2%), South Dakota (11.2%), Iowa (5.6%),
Wisconsin (4.6%), Colorado (3.2%), North Dakota,
Missouri, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas and Montana.
Cattle valued at $1.3 million were imported
directly to Manitoba from the United States in 2014.
SEASONAL FEEDER STEER (800-900LB) PRICES
Other
2014
Kansas
2013
N. Dakota
2012
Washington
2008
2002
S. Dakota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Colorado
Minnesota
Nebraska
0
50000
100000
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
150000
200000
250000
HEAD
Datasource: Statistics Canada, AAFC
Live Cattle
Beef and Beef Products
BSE reduced exports mid-2003 to 2006
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 10 11 12 13 14
YEAR
D atasou rce: Statis tics Canada, AAFC
160
150
2001
2011
2012
140
2013
2014
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
MO NTH
Datasource: Canfax
MANITOBA, 2001, 2011- 2014
Beef and Hides: Beef and by-products worth only $0.17
million were exported from Manitoba in 2014, mostly to
Japan and the United States.
Much of the beef consumed in Manitoba comes
from Alberta or the United States. In 2014, beef/beef
products valued at $10.1 million and raw cattle hides,
cattle semen and embryos, valued at about $0.5 million,
were imported directly into Manitoba, almost all coming
from the United States.
6
240
2001
2013
230
220
2011
2014
2012
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jan
Feb
Datasource: Canfax
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
MONTH
Aug
Sep
Prices:
The supply and demand for cattle and beef in the
United States and the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange
rate are major factors in cattle price determination in
Canada and Manitoba as the United States is still
Canada’s largest market for cattle, calves and beef.
Various factors came together in 2014 to affect
Manitoba’s slaughter cattle prices. Mandatory COOL in
the United States meant finished cattle prices continued
to be discounted by slaughter plants, but with the
American herd at a 64-year low, much higher beef prices
and an improving global economy, prices for cattle
during the year soared to new record levels. In 2014, the
Canadian dollar was valued at 10% below the American
dollar compared to only 3% below par in 2013, which
raised local prices relative to those in the United States.
The average Manitoba Grade A steer price in
2014 rose by 32.9% from the previous record price in
2013. Prices in 2014 for Manitoba cull cows and bulls
were also record high with the average price for D1,2
cows up 46.3% from the 2013 level.
Lower feed costs and record-high finished cattle
prices in the United States in 2014 meant stronger
demand for feeders, which, together with the falling
Canadian dollar value, raised average prices for
Manitoba feeder cattle and calves to new record levels
for the year. In 2014, average prices for Manitoba feeder
steers (700-800 lb) and steer calves (500-600 lb) were
up by an unheard of 52.8% and 59.1% respectively from
2013. Prices for heavier feeders (800-900 lb) increased
by an average of 49.5% from 2013 and were more than
double the price five years earlier.
SEASONAL FEEDER STEER (700-800LB) PRICES
MANITOBA, 2001, 2011- 2014
250
2001
2013
240
230
2011
2014
2012
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
MONTH
Datasource: Canfax
SEASONAL FEEDER STEER (500-600LB) PRICES
MANITOBA, 2001, 2011- 2014
300
2001
2013
280
2011
2014
2012
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
MONTH
Datasource: Canfax
SEASONAL D1,2 COW PRICES
MANITOBA, 2001, 2011- 2014
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2001
2013
2011
2014
2012
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
MONTH
Datasource: Canfax
MANITOBA GRADE A STEER PRICES BY
MONTH, 1994- 2014
Future:
Manitoba’s large annual cow cull from 2006 to
110
2015 continued to reduce the breeding herd, so in 2016,
100
90
once again, there will be fewer calves born than in the
80
previous year.
70
Manitoba cattle prices for the first half of 2015
60
y = 0.0914x + 77.777
50
increased significantly from record 2014 levels and will
40
improve further if the Canadian dollar continues to
30
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
decline. The limited Manitoba slaughter capacity and
reduced American market access due to mCOOL are
unlikely to change much in 2016.
Eventually, when economically feasible, Manitoba does have the potential to increase
the number of cattle finished in the province as only about one-fifth to one quarter of the calves
produced are fed to slaughter weight each year.
$ per cwt
120
Datasource: Canfax
7
CATTLE AND BEEF STATISTICS
R
2014
7,425
7,245
7,105
4,695
N/A
N/A
24.9
471.5
12.0
69.6
71.4
89.7
453.7
1,180.8
10.2
25.2
468.7
11.8
70.8
62.8
90.8
454.6
1,172.9
10.1
25.1
463.4
11.7
68.3
64.8
87.4
466.8
1,175.8
10.1
24.8
458.4
11.7
65.4
57.7
75.3
458.7
1,140.3
10.0
81.38
51.38
99.61
105.03
118.75
95.91
64.15
119.42
127.43
147.07
102.37
69.40
130.72
139.97
160.83
105.14
71.64
129.92
136.59
151.92
139.72
104.84
194.22
208.75
241.76
480
11.0
410
9.7
405
9.8
395
10.0
398
10.0
400
9.9
520.1
8.0
438.4
7.5
437.6
7.1
453.3
7.2
450.3
6.9
487.2
7.2
699.8
7.2
6,040
7,710
4,930
9,960
18,770
11,430
11,740
N/A
52,400
1.4
17,674
0.5
703.9
52,000
1.4
16,534
0.5
685.4
38,800
1.0
15,600
0.4
690
49,400
1.3
14,030
0.4
710
84,100
2.5
11,790
0.4
700
62,500
2.0
11,230
0.4
710
62,900
2.0
10,610
0.4
710
61,400
1.9
10,240
0.3
710
BEEF PRODUCTION (carcass million lb)
12.5
11.4
10.8
10.0
8.3
8.0
7.5
7.3
EXPORTS (out of Canada):
Total cattle (incl. dairy) ('000 head)
Total cattle (incl. dairy) ($ million)
Beef/beef products ($ million)
Hides, semen, embryos ($ million)
280.9
277.6
0.4
1.1
351.4
302.2
0.1
0.6
204.4
182.8
0.14
0.2
164.3
162.6
0.24
0.0
82.3
96.6
0.14
0.3
90.8
111.6
0.06
0.4
156.3
182.8
0.03
0.3
178.0
259.0
0.17
0.0
0.6
0.14
9.4
0.02
1.0
0.17
10.0
0.01
0.8
0.27
7.2
0.15
1.0
0.38
8.1
0.32
2.5
1.48
9.4
0.36
1.6
0.54
9.8
0.57
1.0
0.30
9.6
0.48
1.3
0.20
10.1
0.50
69.8
67.8
64.6
63.8
62.4
63.0
62.3
60.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
9,755
9,640
8,995
8,360
5,940
5,385
5,230
5,275
7,590
6,668
5,260
BEEF CATTLE JULY 1 ('000):
Bulls
Beef cows
% of Canada
Beef replacement heifers
Beef slaughter heifers
Steers
Calves under one year
Total beef cattle
% of Canada
27.6
611.5
12.2
70.1
89.4
97.4
524.7
1,420.7
10.4
27.9
605.0
12.7
73.2
72.5
90.2
533.6
1,402.4
10.8
25.7
548.5
12.5
70.4
84.9
102.9
500.8
1,333.2
10.8
24.6
512.0
12.5
68.5
74.3
95.1
475.9
1,250.4
10.6
AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES ($/cwt):
Grade A steers
D1,2 cows
Feeder steers (800-900lb)
Feeder steers (700-800lb)
Steer calves (500-600lb)
84.95
35.79
96.26
100.80
113.18
81.82
43.11
89.41
93.01
102.43
79.61
43.19
93.01
97.96
109.80
480
10.1
555
11.7
503.1
7.9
NO. OF FARMS WITH CATTLE:
NO. OF FARMS WITH BEEF COWS:
(farms, 51+% of income from beef cattle)
NET CATTLE/CALF PRODUCTION (‘000)
% of Canada
R
R
CATTLE CASH RECEIPTS* ($ million) :
% of Canada
Net farm oper. income per farm ($)
CATTLE SLAUGHTER (head):
R
Mb-origin slaughter in Canada
% of Canada
Inspected slaughter in Manitoba
% of Canada
Average warm carcass weight (lb)
IMPORTS (into Canada):
Total cattle ($ million)
Total cattle ('000 head)
R
Beef/beef products ($ million)
Hides, semen, embryos ($ million)
2013
R
CDN. PER CAPITA DISAPPEARANCE :
Beef and veal (carcass weight (lb))
8
BEEF CATTLE INDUSTRY FLOW CHART, 2014
ANNUAL FEED REQUIRED (BEEF
HERD):
$205 MILLION
IMPORTS OF
BREEDING STOCK:
300
EXPORTS OF
BREEDING STOCK:
200
7,105 FARMS WITH BEEF/DAIRY CATTLE
600 PART/ FULL-TIME HIRED LABOUR
1,220,000 TOTAL CATTLE ON FARMS
JULY 1/14
HERDS WITH MILK
COWS:
FARMS:
350
(300 commercial farms)
MILK COWS: 43,700
HEIFERS:
20,100
INTERPROVINCIAL
MOVEMENT OF
BREEDING STOCK
OTHER OP. EXP: $190 MILLION
FIXED COSTS:
$95 MILLION
LABOUR COSTS: $80 MILLION
BEEF HERDS
FARMS:
6,900
COWS:
458,400
REP. HFRS: 65,400
IMPORTS OF
BREEDING STOCK: N/A
EXPORTS OF BREED.
STOCK:
3,100
FEEDER CALVES
COMMERCIAL MARKETINGS OF SLAUGHTER OR FEEDER CATTLE
FED/PROV. INSPECTED
SLAUGHTER PLANTS:
10,200 HEAD
5.5 MILLION LB (RETAIL)
SLAUGHTER CATTLE:
IMPORTS: 0
INTERPROVINCIAL IN: 0
FRESH & PROCESS. BEEF
58 MILLION LB (RETAIL)
FRESH & PROC. BEEF
IMPORTS:
2.5 MILLION LB
PROV. IN: 50.0 MILLION LB
MANITOBA MARKET:
FRESH & PROCESSED
58 MILLION LB
CATTLE/CALVES
SOLD TO MANITOBA
PRODUCERS:
CATTLE SALES:
FEEDER (Auction only)
*324,400
SLAUGHTER (Auction only) 67,400
OTHER SALES
**79,400
FEEDER IMPORTS:
0
INTERPROVINCIAL IN:
FEEDER:
62,800
SLAUGHTER:
0
CATTLE FOR SLAUGHTER:
EXPORTS:
70,600
INTERPROVINCIAL OUT: 51,200
OTHER CATTLE:
EXPORTS:
104,200
INTERPROVINCIAL OUT:
WEST:
225,000
EAST:
10,000
FRESH & PROCESSED BEEF
EXPORTS : 0.00 MILLION LB
DATA SOURCE: Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Statistics Canada, Agriculture & Agri -Food Canada, Manitoba
Auction Markets. E Estimated * Some cattle may have been sold more than once ** out of province sales only.
9
CATTLE TRADE
MAPS
10
MANITOBA CATTLE EXPORTS TO UNITED STATES, 2014
(Thousand head)
TOTAL NUMBER OF CATTLE: 177.96
MT 0.00
ND 2.90
MN
62.58
SD19.91
WI
8.17
WY 0.13
NE 67.58
OH 0.00
IA 10.02
IL 0.00
UT 0.25
CO 5.62
KS 0.09
MO 0.70
OK 0.00
Datasource: USDoC, Statistics Canada, AAFC
MANITOBA CATTLE EXPORTS TO UNITED STATES, 2014
(C$ million)
TOTAL VALUER OF CATTLE: 258.59
MT 0.15
ND 4.18
MN
SD 28.73
89.74
WI
14.18
WY 0.22
NE 98.15
OH 0.07
IA 13.06
IL 0.04
UT 0.47
CO 8.47
KS 0.16
OK 0.10
Datasource: USDoC, Statistics Canada, AAFC
1
10
MO 1.19