Risk Management in Prairie Organic Agriculture Putting risk management into
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Risk Management in Prairie Organic Agriculture Putting risk management into
Risk Management in Prairie Organic Agriculture Putting risk management into practice. Ian Cushon - Moose Creek Organic Farm Inc. Oxbow, Saskatchewan Manitoba Agronomist Conference December 9, 10, 2008 Moose Creek Organic Farm Inc. Location - Oxbow, SK, 250km SE Regina Thin Black, clay loam soil, Oxbow assoc. 425 mm average annual precipitation. 3855acres ( 3152 ac cultivated ) wheat, oats, peas, lentils, flax, alfalfa seed Cleaning Plant for our own seed. Exporter to EU and USA. Soil Fertility Use green manure legumes - annual peas, clovers, and alfalfa. Alfalfa for seed and soil building. Grow lots of pulse crops. Grow crops that have better nutrient uptake. Apply mined sources of S. Use inoculants where appropriate: Jump Start (Penicillium bilaii) Weed Management Grow competitive crops. Increase seeding rates and maximize seed bed utilization. Use alfalfa in rotation. Design rotation to use high nutrient levels and low nutrient levels effectively. Timing of seeding: early vs. late. Pre-emergent tillage - harrowing and rodweed Post-emergent tillage – harrowing and rotary hoeing. Moose Creek Crop Rotation: Year1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Green cereal pulse man. fallow Flax alfalfa Alfalfa alfalfa w. seed soil seed alfalfa build or hay 8 10 11 oats pulse flax 9 fallow flax 12 13 14 pulse Start over Moose Creek Organic Farm Fuel Costs $ per acre 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Crop acre Cult. acre Zero Till 8.48 8.33 14.03 16.64 13.51 17.49 5.87 5.62 9.89 Con. Till Sask. Ag. Sask. Ag. 12.95 9.70 8.26 11.37 10.36 9.10 $.65/l 11.80 14.80 13.00 $.65/l What have organic grain farms done to minimize risk? Reduced the cost of production by eliminating synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Reduced supply. Differentiated products in the market place. Captured higher prices. Increased net incomes. Economics of Organic Cropping Adapted from Saskatchewan Ag. crop p. guide. Crop Gr.man Fallow fallow wheat Fallow oats Stubble Flax Stubble Peas Stubble Lentils Avg. Yield bu./ ac. 30 70 10 25 10 Avg. Price $/bu. 12.00 4.00 25.00 10 30.00 .$50/lb Revenue $/ac. 360 280 250 250 300 226 232 144 147 158 $134 $48 $106 $103 $142 F+V Costs $/ac. Net Returns $/ac. $80 Economic scenario: 1920 ac. farm 1/3 fallow crop, 1/3 stb. crop, 1/3 gr. man. fallow. Acres crop 640 ac. Fallow wheat Total net profit before labour $85,760. 160 ac Stb. lentils $22,720. 320 ac Stb. Peas $32,960. 160 ac Stb. flax $16,960. 640 ac Green m. fallow $ 0 1920 ac Total $158,400.00 What has Moose Creek done to minimize risk? Expanded acreage. Use regular crop insurance and hail insurance. Grow a diversity of crops. Contract significant acres. Invested in market research and development. Sell direct to processors and wholesalers. Use Export Development Canada (EDC) Credit Insurance. Use international third party crop grading services like SGS Weaknesses Limiting Factors – weeds, fertility and moisture. Increased production variability because of weather and conditions. No magic bullets. Cost of acres tied up in soil building. Long term nutrient depletion and supply especially P. Increased soil erosion potential? Market volatility. Increased labour requirement. Strengths Lower cost of production - large saving on fertilizers and pesticides. Good market demand and strong prices. Reliance on biologically fixed nitrogen. Less susceptible to energy price increases. Can use direct seeding in parts of rotation. How can we improve prairie organic crop production? Integrate livestock into cropping systems to increase the value and utilization of forages and green manures. Put manure where it belongs – in the soil. Reduce the nutrient export. Use intensive rotational grazing to manage green manure fallow acres. Use winter grazing to manage stubble and forage acres with chaff piles and bale grazing. Organic and World Hunger? If the issue is lower yields in organic systems and reduced food output, then how can we justify all the millions of acres that are devoted to animal feed to feed only the wealthiest portion of humanity who can afford lots of meat and dairy products? The future? The era of low cost fossil based energy and fertilizers is coming to an end. Supplies of many mined soil nutrients are finite and becoming more expensive. Agriculture is still very dependent upon properly functioning natural systems. What is needed? Many of the gains in organic agriculture have been made with very little research and development investment in pest control and plant breeding for organic agriculture. Public sector research - Private research sector is not interested in organic because many of the solutions are based on system design and are unlikely to generate revenue for input suppliers. Organic research and production methods can be used by non-organic producers as well. Conclusion The current agricultural systems are fragile and vulnerable because of declining fossil energy resources. Sustainability and resource conservation have to be the primary criteria for agricultural systems design. Some of the principles of organic agriculture will be important components of farms of the future.