Colorado’s Dropout Crisis: Size, Scope, Costs and Implications May 13, 2013

Colorado’s Dropout Crisis:
Size, Scope, Costs and Implications
May 13, 2013
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Is it really a crisis?

Scope, cost and context
Context for Colorado’s dropout rates and numbers
The Pepsi CenterStatewide Annual Dropout Rate
Seating
Capacity:
18,007
Rocks
Amphitheatre
5% Red
Seating
9,450
4.5%Capacity:
4.4%
3.8%
4%
3.6%
12,256
2008-09
2.9%
12,744
2007-08
1%
3.0%
13,147
2006-07
14,975
2005-06
15,524
2%
18,027
3%
18,031
3.1%
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
0%
4
Personal and Social Costs of Dropping Out

Over a 45 year career, compared to a dropout*:
• a high school graduate will earn an additional $433,530
• a bachelor’s degree recipient will earn an additional $1,591,740
5

Less than 46 percent of the nation’s young high school dropouts
were employed on any given day during 2008 - an average
joblessness/unemployment rate of 54%.**

The incidence of institutionalization problems among young high
school dropouts is 6.3 times higher than among young high school
graduates. Nearly 1 of every 10 young male high school dropouts
was institutionalized on a given day in 2006-2007.**
* Source: “US Bureau of the Census, 2006
** Source: “The Consequences of Dropping Out of High School” by The Center
for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University - October 2009
Economic Costs of the Dropout Crisis
Lifetime economic cost to society of a dropout vs. high school graduate:
Lower contributions of federal, state, and local
tax payments. *
Higher in-kind transfer costs (welfare spending,
unemployment payments, food stamps, etc) and
incarceration expenditures *
Additional healthcare expenditures **
$180,997
$124,362
$16,091
$321,450
•Source: "The Consequences of Dropping Out of High School" by The Center for Labor Market
Studies at Northeastern University - October 2009.
** Source: "Potential Economic Impacts of Improved Education on Colorado" by the Alliance for
Excellent Education - October 2009
6
Economic Costs of the Dropout Crisis (cont.)
Average number of reported dropouts during
each of the past seven years.
14,958
85%
Historic data indicates approximately 85% of
those dropouts will not return and complete high
school
Lifetime economic cost of each dropout
Total lifetime cost to Colorado and the U.S. for a
single year’s “cohort” of Colorado dropouts
12,714
x
$ 321,450
$ 4,086,933,669
7
Signs of Progress
Orange bars represent the annual dropout rate by year for Colorado.
The blue space and blue numbers above each bar represent the
number of students who would have dropped out each year if
the dropout rate had remained at the 2005-06 level of 4.5%
25,825
students
3.8%
6,223
5,739
3,788
4.4%
4%
2,991
4.5%
410
Statewide Annual Dropout Rate
5%
6,674
xx
For an explanation of how the dropout rate is calculated, see slide #25
3.6%
3%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2010-11
2011-12
2%
1%
0%
8
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
The Graduation Rate
The statewide graduation rate has increased
slightly each of the past three years
100%
90%
80%
74.1%
75.0%
73.9%
74.6%
72.4%
73.9%
75.4%
Class of
2006
Class of
2007
Class of
2008
Class of
2009
Class of
2010*
Class of
2011*
Class of
2012*
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10
A mandated change in graduation rate
calculation occurred between 2009 and 2010
For an explanation of how the graduation
rate is calculated, see slide #25
70%
60%
59%
74%
80%
0%
Vermont
Wisconsin
Indiana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
North Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Illinois
Maine
Connecticut
Kansas
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
Montana
Virginia
Arkansas
Missouri
Hawaii
Ohio
Wyoming
Arizona
Delaware
North Carolina
Minnesota
New York
Rhode Island
California
Utah
Washington
West Virginia
Mississippi
COLORADO
Colorado
Michigan
South Carolina
Alabama
Florida
Louisiana
Alaska
Oregon
Georgia
New Mexico
Nevada
Nevada
D.C.
Wash.D.C.
Wash.
Idaho
Kentucky
Oklahoma
88%
90%
Iowa
Iowa
Colorado’s graduation rate in a national context
100%
4-Year Graduation Rate by State – Class of 2011
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Colorado Statewide Graduation and Completion
Rates Over Time for the Class of 2010
100
90
80
70
81.9
84.3
77.1
78.5
75.8
72.4
7-Year rates will be
available January 2014
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
“On-time”rate
rate(4- 5-year
5-year
rate
6-year
rate
7-year
rate
"On-time"
rate
2011
6-year
rate
2012
7-year
rate
- 2013
calculated in
calculated in
calculated in
(4 years or less)
years or2010
less) - 2010
2011
2012
2013
XX
Completion Rate (Graduates plus GED recipients and other non-graduating high school completers)
12
xx
Graduation Rate (Recipients of a district-issued diploma)
Education Outcomes Gaps


By Race/Ethnicity
By Instructional Program Type
Substantial “outcomes gaps” exist between White students
and their Black, Hispanic and American Indian peers
4-Year Graduates and Completers from the Class of 2012
by Racial/Ethnic Category
100%
90%
14.9%
15.9%
21.8%
3.0%
1.2%
80%
30.6%
34.8%
38.6%
2.8%
70%
3.2%
Non-Completers
2.7%
60%
57.7%
White
20%
62.5%
Asian
4-Year Completers
66.2%
82.1%
30%
82.9%
40%
75.4%
50%
3.7%
4 Year Graduates
10%
0%
State Total
Black
Hispanic American
Indian
14
Similar gaps exist among students in various
Instructional Program categories
4-Year Graduates and Completers from the Class of 2012 by
Instructional Program Service Type
100%
90%
21.8%
35.0%
80%
2.8%
41.9%
44.2%
44.2%
45.5%
47.3%
70%
3.6%
60%
1.2%
3.7%
Non-Completers
3.6%
53.7%
53.3%
52.1%
49.1%
Students with
Disabilities
Limited English
Proficient
Title 1
Homeless
4-Year Completers
55.7%
20%
2.1%
Migrant
30%
61.4%
40%
75.4%
50%
2.4%
4 Year Graduates
10%
Economically
Disadvantaged
State Total
0%
15
Annual Dropout Rate by Instructional Program
Service Type: 6-Year Trend
10%
9%
9.5%
8.7%
8.5%
8.5%
7.9%
8%
7.5%
7.2%
6.7%
7%
Homeless
6%
5.7%
5.1%
5%
4%
4.5%
4.5%
State Total
Students with
Disabilities
Limited English
Proficient
4.4%
4.4%
3.8%
3.8%
3%
3.5%
3.2%
3.6%
3.6%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.2%
2%
1%
Economically
Disadvantaged
Migrant
Title 1
0%
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Growth in student populations from 2005 to 2012
Percent Growth in Student Count
100%
89.3%
80%
72.7%
60%
38.2%
40%
24.9%
20%
10.7%
31.1%
31.0%
7.3%
0%
-70.1
9.8%
14.4%
22.9%
41.6%
1.7%
Minority
Race/
Ethnicity
0.3%
124,701 197,814 358,889 14,286
Section 504
Handicapped
100%
Homeless
84,410
Free or
Reduced
Lunch
2,257
Title 1
863,561
English
Language
Learners
Special
Education
Percent of
All Students
Migrant
Fall 2012
Count
Total Pupil
Count
(PK-12)
-20%
9,350
383,195
1.1%
44.4%
Current and pending
policies and legislation
The Colorado Graduation Pathways researchbased framework for dropout prevention
Essential Elements
Identification
Institutional
Change
Intervention
& Support
Methods & Tactics
1.
Data Analysis
2.
Early Warning Systems
3.
Tracking Out-of-School Youth
4.
Assess and Enhance School Climate
5.
Policy and Practices Review
6.
Community Engagement
7.
Family Involvement
8.
Transition Programs
9.
Alternative Pathways to Graduation
(middle school to high
school, high school to postsecondary)
(expanded curriculum, CTE, concurrent enrollment, etc)
10.
Reengagement of Out-of-School Youth
11.
Enhanced Counseling and Mentoring
12.
Credit Recovery Options
Significant Legislation Related to Dropout
Prevention and Student Engagement
The Education Accountability Act of 2009 (SB 09-163)
• Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness Indicators must be included in High
School and District Performance Frameworks (graduation rates, dropout rates,
ACT scores).
• Identified districts must develop Priority Improvement or Turnaround plans.
• Alternative accountability measures for Alternative Education Campuses.
The Dropout Prevention and Student Re-Engagement Act (HB 09-1243)
• Requires identification of “high priority” districts in need of assistance to
improve graduation rates. These districts are required to complete a practices
assessment and a graduation and completion plan as part of the UIP process.
• Creates the Office of Dropout Prevention and School Engagement within CDE
• Amends previous legislation such as parental notification when a student drops
out of school.
• Repeals the mandate to expel habitually disruptive students.
20
Significant Legislation (cont.)
Preschool to Postsecondary Education Alignment Act (HB 07-1118 / SB 08-212)
• Introduces endorsed diplomas and calls for development of high school
graduation guidelines (criteria for indicating a student’s level of post- secondary
and workforce readiness upon graduation)
School Counselor Corps Grant Program (HB 08-1370)
• Supports over 70 secondary counselors who provide services to over 82,000 students
• Created to increase the graduation rate and increase the percentage of students who
appropriately prepare for, apply to, and continue into postsecondary education
Concurrent Enrollment Programs Act (HB 09-1319/SB 285)
• Calls for coordinating and clarifying existing concurrent enrollment programs
• Creates the “5th year” ASCENT program to provide instruction by the high
school beyond the senior year for eligible students.
Individual Career and Academic Plans (ICAP) SB 09-256
• Assists students in developing and maintaining a personalized plan that ensures
readiness for post-secondary and workforce success
21
Visualizing current legislation and policies
Maximum age for public per pupil funding = 21
Non-graduating completers
(GED, etc) count against the
graduation rate
Students requiring > 4 years
to finish high school are
counted as “late” graduates
All students assigned an unchanging “Anticipated
Year of Graduation” upon entering 9th grade
22
Legislation and policies – “accommodations”
• Although state per-pupil funding cannot be
provided for students over age 21, students can be
reported as graduates or completers up to age 23.
Completers count against
the grad. rate
Maximum age for funding = 21
“On time” = 4 years
• Alternative Ed.
Campuses are
accountable for their
completion rate in
place of grad. rate,
and may also
include a transition
rate.
• Upon appeal,
districts and schools
“Anticipated Year of Graduation”
may be allowed to
upon entering 9th grade
use the completion
rate instead of grad.
• 8th grade students from prior year reported as
rate for PWR.
“retained in grade” are not assigned to a graduation
cohort.
• First time 9th graders reported on the End of Year
collection as transferring back to 8th grade before
October 1st are not assigned to a graduation cohort.
• Colorado tracks
4-, 5-, 6- and 7year grad. &
completion rates
and uses “best of”
for state
accountability.
• Colorado
received a waiver
from USDE to use
state frameworks
in place of federal
accountability.
Thank You!
Peter Fritz
Principal Consultant
Colorado Department of Education
Office of Dropout Prevention and Postsecondary Readiness
(303) 866-6601
[email protected]
May 13, 2013
Overview of the rate calculations for graduation,
completion, and dropout
Graduation Rate
Completion Rate
Dropout Rate
4-year cohort (Class
of…)
4-year cohort (Class
of…)
Annual
(July 1 to June 30)
Numerator
# of students receiving a
diploma within 4 years of
initially finishing 8th grade
# of students receiving a
diploma, GED certificate, or
designation of high school
completion within 4 years of
initially entering 9th grade
Number of reported
dropouts and “age outs”
during the past year
Denominator
# of students finishing 8th
grade four years earlier +
transfers in – verified
transfers out
# of students finishing 8th
grade four years earlier +
transfers in – verified
transfers out
# of students that were in
membership in grade 7-12
at any time during the past
year
Statewide
2011-12 rate
75.4%
75.8%
2.9%
(and count)
45,879 graduates /
membership base of 60,885
47,626 completers /
membership base of 60,885
12,256 dropouts /
420,667 students in
membership in grades 7-12
Notes
5-, 6-, and 7-year
graduation rates are also
calculated and posted for
each cohort
5-, 6-, and 7-year
completion rates are also
calculated and posted for
each cohort
Students transferring to a
GED program are not
counted as dropouts in the
dropout rate
Time period
25