Sacramento River Temperature Task Group Meeting April 24, 2014 1:00 pm

Sacramento River Temperature Task Group Meeting
April 24, 2014
1:00 pm
Conference Line: 877-718-6527
Pass code: 1954134
Agenda
1. Introductions
2. Fishery update
3. Hydrology & Operations update
a. Daily CVP Water Supply Report ***
b. 90% and 50% forecasts ***
4. Discussion of recent temperature model runs
a. Temperature studies packet ***
5. Next meeting
***handouts
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION-CENTRAL VALLEY PROJECT-CALIFORNIA
DAILY CVP WATER SUPPLY REPORT
RUN DATE: April 24, 2014
APRIL 23, 2014
RESERVOIR RELEASES IN CUBIC FEET/SECOND
RESERVOIR
WY 2013
DAM
15 YR
MEDIAN
WY 2014
TRINITY
LEWISTON
2,043
206
500
SACRAMENTO
KESWICK
8,044
3,488
7,015
FEATHER
OROVILLE (SWP)
2,500
800
2,300
AMERICAN
NIMBUS
1,111
1,531
2,006
STANISLAUS
GOODWIN
3,011
2,524
1,480
SAN JOAQUIN
FRIANT
1,062
167
211
STORAGE IN MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET
RESERVOIR
CAPACITY
WY 2013
15 YR AVG
% OF 15
YR AVG
WY 2014
TRINITY
2,448
1,947
2,148
1,297
67
SHASTA
4,552
3,868
3,871
2,405
62
OROVILLE (SWP)
3,538
2,658
3,111
1,864
70
977
706
673
532
75
2,420
1,639
1,509
961
59
FED. SAN LUIS
966
812
716
559
69
MILLERTON
520
379
322
203
54
TOT. N. CVP
11,360
8,972
8,917
5,754
64
FOLSOM
NEW MELONES
ACCUMULATED INFLOW FOR WATER YEAR TO DATE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-FEET
RESERVOIR
CURRENT
WY 2014
WETTEST
WY 1983
DRIEST
WY 1977
15 YR
AVG
% OF 15
YR AVG
TRINITY
299
106
1,422
727
41
SHASTA
1,861
1,550
7,856
3,632
51
FOLSOM
588
222
3,988
1,409
42
NEW MELONES
208
0
1,261
486
43
MILLERTON
109
117
1,857
563
19
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FOR WATER YEAR TO DATE IN INCHES
RESERVOIR
CURRENT
WY 2014
TRINITY AT
FISH HATCHERY
16.08
SACRAMENTO AT
SHASTA DAM
28.75
AMERICAN AT
BLUE CANYON
39.03
STANISLAUS AT
NEW MELONES
13.20
SAN JOAQUIN AT
HUNTINGTON LK
13.97
DRIEST
WY 1977
9.27
WETTEST
WY 1983
AVG
(N YRS)
51.97
(
11.04
104.96
(
15.64
0.00
11.50
96.24
% OF
AVG
LAST
24 HRS
28.88
52 )
56
0.00
56.20
51
0.03
66
0.00
57 )
59.05
(
39 )
24.69
36 )
53
0.00
(
37.81
37
0.00
42.10
75.30
(
39 )
90% Exceedence Runoff
Storages
Federal End of the Month Storage/Elevation (TAF/Feet)
Trinity
1307
Elev.
Whiskeytown
209
Elev.
Shasta
2199
Elev.
Folsom
436
Elev.
New Melones
1037
Elev.
San Luis
468
Elev.
Total
Apr
1288
2285
238
1209
2252
971
527
420
924
932
502
442
5730
May
1188
2275
238
1209
2011
958
537
421
804
913
464
437
5242
Jun
1058
2262
238
1209
1693
938
467
412
699
896
356
410
4511
Jul
875
2240
238
1209
1371
916
380
400
585
875
219
380
3669
Aug
720
2220
238
1209
1110
895
330
392
475
852
136
351
3009
Sep
656
2211
230
1207
953
881
295
386
391
832
119
360
2644
Oct
599
2202
230
1207
931
879
270
382
371
827
270
393
2670
Nov
570
2197
225
1205
970
883
258
379
376
829
370
419
2769
Dec
572
2197
182
1190
1065
891
259
380
381
830
487
453
2947
Jan
577
2198
182
1190
1188
902
271
382
387
831
660
485
3265
Feb
606
2203
186
1192
1391
917
329
392
398
834
666
485
3575
Mar
654
2210
206
1199
1716
940
450
410
403
836
633
483
4062
State End of the Month Reservoir Storage (TAF)
Oroville
1716
388
1804
763
394
1619
744
382
1400
719
252
1141
685
153
947
656
54
877
644
127
788
629
195
809
633
312
824
635
514
811
633
675
966
659
677
1195
692
685
856
896
846
607
373
190
246
465
682
1001
1336
1344
1318
36
600
11
190
239
4010
42
706
89
1497
48
800
92
1,498
12
190
462
7510
59
954
47
760
49
800
47
783
9
150
542
9115
108
1820
34
564
74
1250
28
450
7
120
592
9631
119
1942
26
425
108
1750
28
450
5
85
503
8177
85
1377
21
346
77
1250
27
450
9
150
309
5195
60
1002
14
240
74
1250
23
373
12
200
249
4053
62
1001
35
577
55
900
18
300
12
200
208
3500
51
863
12
200
48
800
18
300
12
200
200
3250
51
837
12
200
49
800
18
300
12
200
200
3250
49
800
13
213
49
800
17
300
11
200
180
3250
44
800
12
214
44
800
18
300
12
200
200
3250
49
800
23
368
49
800
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
95
69
40
35
96
89
160
152
127
120
36
34
41
30
24
19
1
36
9
4
8
5
21
8
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Tracy
USBR Banks
Contra Costa
125
0
6.4
92
0
6.4
45
0
6.4
45
0
4.9
45
0
5.6
57
0
6.4
197
0
7
125
0
8.4
135
0
9.2
190
0
9.2
45
0
7
45
0
7
Total USBR
State Export
131
21
99
46
51
37
50
15
51
5
63
106
204
86
133
135
144
216
199
190
52
45
52
45
Total Export
COA Balance
153
-107
145
-169
88
-169
65
-222
56
-267
169
-198
290
-253
268
-227
360
-189
389
-189
97
-189
97
-189
Old/Middle River Std.
Old/Middle R. calc.
-1,500
-1,688
-1,261
-999
-940
-2,433
-3,443
-3,505
-4,551
-4,908
-1,272
-1,347
Computed DOI
Excess Outflow
% Export/Inflow
% Export/Inflow std.
5883
0
26%
35%
4002
0
29%
35%
3681
588
17%
35%
3091
0
12%
65%
2993
0
11%
65%
2992
0
33%
65%
2798
0
51%
65%
3496
0
51%
65%
3497
0
62%
65%
6149
1643
53%
65%
10194
3098
14%
45%
10281
3172
13%
35%
Elev.
San Luis
Total San
Luis (TAF)
Monthly River Releases (TAF/cfs)
Trinity
Clear Creek
Sacramento
American
Stanislaus
Feather
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
Trinity Diversions (TAF)
Carr PP
Spring Crk. PP
Delta Summary (TAF)
Hydrology
Water Year Inflow (TAF)
Year to Date + Forecasted
% of mean
Trinity
422
35%
Shasta
2,511
45%
Folsom
918
34%
New Melones
291
28%
4/24/2014
50% Forecast
Storages
Federal End of the Month Storage/Elevation (TAF/Feet)
Trinity
1307
Elev.
Whiskeytown
209
Elev.
Shasta
2199
Elev.
Folsom
436
Elev.
New Melones
1037
Elev.
San Luis
468
Elev.
Total
Apr
1312
2287
238
1209
2288
973
524
420
933
933
515
441
5811
May
1241
2280
238
1209
2112
964
576
426
832
918
479
435
5477
Jun
1116
2268
238
1209
1831
947
505
417
738
903
317
402
4745
Jul
936
2248
238
1209
1495
925
414
405
644
886
126
375
3854
Aug
784
2229
238
1209
1249
907
356
396
552
868
4
354
3183
Sep
716
2219
238
1209
1074
892
324
391
485
854
14
365
2850
Oct
692
2216
206
1199
1095
894
338
394
475
852
123
386
2928
Nov
688
2215
206
1199
1210
903
368
398
494
856
250
424
3216
Dec
721
2220
206
1199
1399
918
419
406
519
862
493
468
3757
Jan
783
2229
206
1199
1812
946
509
418
555
869
663
499
4528
Feb
894
2243
206
1199
2381
978
520
419
621
882
758
527
5380
Mar
1014
2257
206
1199
3022
1009
585
427
693
895
758
544
6279
State End of the Month Reservoir Storage (TAF)
Oroville
1716
388
1804
763
369
1612
743
345
1421
721
222
1160
687
214
974
660
203
885
646
259
850
640
294
963
658
475
1124
682
665
1343
712
837
1739
757
1069
2138
795
1277
856
884
824
539
340
206
273
417
725
1158
1500
1828
2036
36
600
11
190
297
5000
63
1063
86
1450
48
800
92
1,498
12
190
472
7675
61
1000
47
760
49
800
47
783
12
200
565
9500
123
2072
32
536
59
1000
28
450
5
85
645
10500
137
2226
22
364
166
2700
28
450
5
85
521
8474
108
1752
23
368
138
2250
27
450
9
150
357
6000
76
1275
14
240
104
1750
28
450
12
200
246
4000
61
1000
35
577
58
950
18
300
13
225
193
3250
59
1000
12
200
57
950
18
300
12
200
200
3250
61
1000
12
200
58
950
18
300
12
200
200
3250
61
1000
13
213
58
950
17
300
11
200
194
3500
250
4500
12
214
53
950
18
300
12
200
200
3250
246
4000
15
243
49
800
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
86
69
32
35
95
89
157
152
126
120
43
34
8
30
17
10
7
10
3
25
2
35
10
35
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Tracy
USBR Banks
Contra Costa
144
0
6.35
120
0
6.35
45
0
4.9
45
0
5.55
60
0
6.35
140
0
7
200
0
8.4
170
0
9.2
275
0
9.15
200
0
7
150
0
7
85
0
6.35
Total USBR
State Export
150
21
126
56
50
60
51
100
66
122
147
137
208
142
179
231
284
275
207
200
157
275
91
299
Total Export
COA Balance
172
-134
182
-134
110
-129
151
-113
188
-65
284
0
350
0
410
0
559
0
407
0
432
0
390
0
-1,487
-1,815
-1,416
-2,026
-2,513
-3,833
-4,148
-5,151
-6,860
-4,875
-5,001
-4,580
6724
0
26%
35%
4474
472
33%
35%
4001
0
21%
35%
4002
0
23%
65%
2993
0
31%
65%
3009
0
46%
65%
3611
114
52%
65%
3648
151
61%
65%
5905
2408
60%
65%
13111
8605
35%
65%
21630
10230
27%
35%
20058
8654
24%
35%
Elev.
San Luis
Total San
Luis (TAF)
Monthly River Releases (TAF/cfs)
Trinity
Clear Creek
Sacramento
American
Stanislaus
Feather
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
TAF
cfs
Trinity Diversions (TAF)
Carr PP
Spring Crk. PP
Delta Summary (TAF)
Old/Middle R. std.
Old/Middle R. calc.
Computed DOI
Excess Outflow
% Export/Inflow
% Export/Inflow std.
Hydrology
Water Year Inflow (TAF)
Year to Date + Forecasted
% of mean
4/24/20148:16 AM
Trinity
467
39%
Shasta
2,846
51%
Apr50_2014_b2_frsa100.xlsm
Folsom
1,043
38%
New Melones
387
37%
April 24, 2014
Upper Sacramento River – April 2014 Preliminary Temperature Analysis
Summary of Temperature Target Results by Month
Initial
Target Location
Sac. R. above Clear Creek (CCR)
Sac. R. above Clear Creek (CCR)
JUN
JUL
AUG
90%-Exceedance Outlook
CCR
CCR
CCR
50%-Exceedance Outlook
CCR
CCR
CCR
SEP
OCT
CCR
CCR~56˚F to 57+˚F
CCR
CCR~56˚F to 57+˚F
Temperature Model Inputs, Assumptions, Limitations and Uncertainty:
1. Operation is based on the April 2014 Operation Outlooks (monthly flows, reservoir release, and end-of-month reservoir storage) for
the 90% and 50% exceedances.
2. The profiles used for Shasta, Trinity and Whiskeytown were taken on April 9, April 16, and April 9, respectively.
3. Guidance on forecasted flows from the creeks (e.g., Cow, Cottonwood, Battle, etc.) between Keswick Dam and Bend Bridge is not
available beyond 5 days. Model input side flows (Cottonwood Cr & Bend Bridge local flow w/o Cottonwood Cr) were selected from
the historical record, and are consistent with the forecast exceedance frequency. During spring, the relatively warm creek flows can
be a significant percentage of the flows at Bend Bridge.
4. Although mean daily flows and releases are temperature model inputs, they are based on the mean monthly values from the
operation outlooks. Mean daily flow patterns are user defined.
5. Cottonwood Creek flows, Keswick to Bend Bridge local flows, and diversions are mean daily synthesized flows based on the
available historical record for a 1922-2002 study period.
6. Meteorological inputs were derived from a database of 86 years of meteorological data (1920-2005). The NOAA-NWS Local
Three-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO), as a means of estimating air temperature expectation, was used to select each month’s
meteorology from the database.
7. Meteorology, as well as flow volume and pattern, significantly influences reservoir inflow temperatures and downstream tributary
temperatures; and consequently, the development of the cold-water pool during winter and early spring.
Temperature Analysis Results:
Note that for all exceedances, Lake Shasta storage is too low to utilize the upper gates of the TCD. This TCD limitation, along with
the relatively small cold-water pool volume, significantly impacts temperature management.
Also, temperature results for both exceedances are almost identical because operations are not significantly different, especially the
Lake Shasta maximum storage (end of April) which differs by only about 30 TAF.
90%-Exceedance:
A temperature target location above Clear Creek is possible through September (Figure 1). By early September, the TCD intake level
will be through the side gates.
Figure 2 shows temperature results for Clear Creek at Igo.
Figure 3 includes results for the Trinity River at Lewiston Dam. The dashed lines are the 2009 mean daily temperatures at selected
locations. NOTE: 2009 was the last time the auxiliary outlet works (AOW) was used for fall temperature management; however,
there are no releases through the auxiliary outlet works (AOW) in this analysis.
50%-Exceedance:
A temperature target location above Clear Creek is possible through September (Figure 4). By late September, the TCD intake level
will be through the side gates.
Figure 5 shows temperature results for Clear Creek at Igo.
Figure 6 includes results for the Trinity River at Lewiston Dam.
Temperature (˚F)
Sacramento River Modeled Temperature
2014 April 90%-Exceedance Outlook
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
Sacramento River above Clear Creek Target Location
(through September)
NOTES:
1. Estimated end of September lake volume below 56˚F is ~150 TAF.
2. The volume below 56˚F (with all TCD flows through the side gates by
mid-September) indicates that a Clear Creek target may be difficult to
maintain through fall.
4/12
SHASTA
Figure 1
5/3
5/24
KESWICK
6/14
CLEAR_CR
7/5
BALLS_FERRY
7/26
8/16
JELLYS_FERRY
9/6
BEND_BR
9/27
10/18
SPRG_CR_TUNNEL
Clear Creek - Igo Modeled Temperature
2014 April 90%-Exceedance Outlook
67
66
65
64
63
62
Temperature (˚F)
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
4/12
Figure 2
5/3
5/24
6/14
7/5
7/26
8/16
9/6
9/27
10/18
Temperature (˚F)
Trinity River - 2014 April 90%-Exceedance Outlook
"Critically Dry Year" Release Schedule
Mean Daily Water Temperature
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
Notes: All modeled Trinity Dam releases are through the
outlet works intake (invert elevation 2100 feet). There are no
releases through the auxiliary outlet works (AOW).
4/12
5/3
Trinity Dam
Figure 3
5/24
Lewiston Dam
6/14
7/5
7/26
2009 Lewiston Dam (Obs)
8/16
9/6
2009 Douglas City (Obs)
9/27
10/18
2009 abv N Fork (Obs)
Temperature (˚F)
Sacramento River Modeled Temperature
2014 April 50%-Exceedance Outlook
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
Sacramento River above Clear Creek Target Location
(through September)
NOTES:
1. Estimated end of September lake volume below 56˚F is ~160 TAF.
2. The volume below 56˚F (with all TCD flows through the side gates by
late September) indicates that a Clear Creek target may be difficult to
maintain through fall.
4/12
SHASTA
Figure 4
5/3
5/24
KESWICK
6/14
CLEAR_CR
7/5
BALLS_FERRY
7/26
8/16
JELLYS_FERRY
9/6
BEND_BR
9/27
10/18
SPRG_CR_TUNNEL
Clear Creek - Igo Modeled Temperature
2014 April 50%-Exceedance Outlook
67
66
65
64
63
62
Temperature (˚F)
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
4/12
Figure 5
5/3
5/24
6/14
7/5
7/26
8/16
9/6
9/27
10/18
Temperature (˚F)
Trinity River - 2014 April 50%-Exceedance Outlook
"Critically Dry Year" Release Schedule
Mean Daily Water Temperature
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
Notes: All modeled Trinity Dam releases are through the
outlet works intake (invert elevation 2100 feet). There are no
releases through the auxiliary outlet works (AOW).
4/12
5/3
Trinity Dam
Figure 6
5/24
Lewiston Dam
6/14
7/5
7/26
2009 Lewiston Dam (Obs)
8/16
9/6
2009 Douglas City (Obs)
9/27
10/18
2009 abv N Fork (Obs)
Model Performance and Fall Temperature Index:
1. Based on past analyses, the temperature model does not perform well from late September through fall. One factor is that the modeled release temperatures
are cooler than has historically been achieved when all release is through the side gates (lowest gates), especially when there’s a large temperature gradient
between the pressure relief gates (PRG) and the side gates.
2. Based on historical records, the end-of-September Lake Shasta volume below 56˚F is a reasonable indicator of fall water temperature in the river reach to Balls
Ferry.
3. For river temperatures not to exceed 56˚F downstream to Balls Ferry, the end-of-September lake volume less than 56˚F should be greater than about 650 TAF,
see figure below:
Sacramento River - Lake Shasta
Early Fall Water Temperature at Balls Ferry
59
Water Temperature, in ˚ F
58
57
56
55
54
NOTES:
1. Historical maximum mean 3-day temperature at Balls Ferry, from very late September
through early November, based on end of September Lake Shasta volume less than 56˚ F.
2. Plotted points are estimated historical values for 1997 through 2009.
3. During this early fall period, the Shasta TCD was at its lowest gate configuration of the
season (Side Gates only, or combination PRG and Side Gates).
1/6/10
53
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
End of September Lake Shasta Volume less than 56˚ F, in acre-feet
850
950
Thousands
Lake Shasta Temperature Profile - 4/9/14
1050
Upper Gates
1000
950
Middle Gates
Elevation (ft)
900
850
PRG (Lower Gates)
800
750
Side Gates
700
650
600
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
Water Temperature (˚ F)
54
55
56
57
58
59
Trinity Lake Temperature Profile - 4/16/14
2400
2350
2300
Elevation (ft)
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
Water Temperature (˚ F)
53
54
55
56
57
58