Transmission Cost Causation Study for the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO)
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Transmission Cost Causation Study for the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO)
London Economics International LLC Transmission Cost Causation Study for the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) August 19th, 2013 Calgary, Alberta LEI and project team www.londoneconomics.com ■ LEI has worked with Alberta clients across the electricity sector value chain on a range of issues associated with both regulated and competitive assets LEI gathered a team of dedicated professionals with required qualifications to perform the transmission cost causation study. The team possesses considerable energy markets expertise and technical, evaluation, strategy, and expert testimony expertise in transmission-related projects internationally, in North America, and specifically, in Alberta Team Member Relevant Experience A. J. Goulding Team lead Considerable energy industry, Albertaspecific, cost allocation and transmissionrelated project experience. Previously led teams advising the AESO, the Balancing Pool, and the Alberta Department of Energy, and has worked with generators, transmission companies, distributors, and industry associations in Alberta Gary Tarplee Senior Engineering Professional 30 years of energy transmission-related work experience, including an engagement directing the planning and engineering of Edison International’s largest T&D capital expansion in its history Amit Pinjani Project Manager Worked on multiple Alberta-specific and other cost allocation-related projects, including a review and analysis of historical and going-forward costs associated with PPAs of a large independent power producer Ian Chow Project Analyst Worked on multiple Alberta engagements, including analysis of risk management practices of a large organization. Significant experience with transmission development in New York State 2 www.londoneconomics.com ■ Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions 3 www.londoneconomics.com ■ Scope LEI was asked to prepare a transmission cost causation study for AESO covering both capital and O&M costs ► ► Functionalization of Capital Costs Research, recommend an approach to, and provide results for the functionalization of transmission facility owner capital-related costs into bulk system, regional system, and point of delivery functions Recommended approach must address both existing and planned transmission facilities that will give rise to capital-related costs during the 2014-2016 period which will be covered by the AESO’s tariff application Functionalization of Operating and Maintenance Costs ► Classification of Bulk System and Regional System Costs ► Functionalization of transmission facility owner operating and maintenance costs (including non-capitalrelated costs such as general and administrative costs, if appropriate) Classification of bulk system and regional system costs into appropriate billing determinants (demand and energy) Implementation Considerations Discuss considerations that may be relevant to the implementation of the functionalization and classification results, in as much as implementation may be affected by the recommended approach and results Considerations may include averaging the results to achieve rate stability, implementing results annually to reflect cost causation, phasing in the results gradually, and other appropriate options Classification of POD costs and rate design was outside the scope of this study Relevant historical timeline (with respect to previous transmission cost causation studies) 2005 2005 Transmission (Capital) Cost Causation Study 2005 Board Decision 2005-096 2006 2007 2009 2010 2006 Transmission (Capital) Cost Causation Update Board Decision 2007-106 2009 Operating and Maintenance Cost Study Board Decision 2010-606 4 www.londoneconomics.com ■ Documents reviewed LEI reviewed over two hundred documents, totaling over 500 megabytes, which aided in the development of this analysis Sample of documents reviewed AESO. AESO 2010 ISO Tariff Application (1605961 - ID 530) AEUB. Decision 2007-106: 2007 GTA. AESO. 2011 Unit Cost Estimates AEUB. Decision 2010-606: 2007 GTA. AESO. 2013 Planning Base Case Suite. January 24, 2013. Alberta Energy. Transmission Development: The Right Path for Alberta. December 22, 2003. PS Technologies Inc. Electric Transmission Operating and Maintenance Cost Study. December 10, 2009 Bonbright, James, Albert L. Danielsen and David R. Kamerschen. Principles of Public Utility Rates, AESO Point of Delivery database California Independent System Operator Corporation. Fifth Replacement CAISO Tariff. Mar 20, 2013. AESO Draft Transmission Rate Impact Projection Model Hydro One. EB-2012-0031 Exhibit G1. Tab 2. Schedule 1. Filed May 28, 2012. National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners. Electricity Utility Cost Allocation Manual. January 1992. OEB. EB-2012-0031. Decision in the matter of an application by Hydro One Networks Inc. for an approving of new transmission revenue requirements and rates for the transmission of electricity in 2013 and 2014. Decision issued on December 20, 2012. Ontario Energy Board. Filing Requirements: Transmission Project Development Plans; August 26, 2010. ATCO quotes for transformer Alberta Interconnected Electric System Map Interveners’ submissions on Transmission O&M study Need Identification Documents for Planned Projects Ontario Energy Board. Board Policy: Framework for Transmission project Development Plans; August 26, 2010. Planning Base Case - 2015 data files PS Technologies Inc. Alberta Transmission System Wires Only – Cost Causation Study. January 25, 2005. Project Progress reports – cost and schedule information (approx. 62 files) PS Technologies Inc. Alberta Transmission System 2006 Transmission Cost Causation Update. September 15, 2006 AESO. 2013-01-17 AESO 2014 Cost Causation Working Group Presentation. AEUB. Decision 2005-096: 2007 GTA Meeting #1 AESO. AESO Long-term Transmission Plan. Filed June 2012. TCWG meeting notes and underlying AESO analysis AESO. Reasonableness Assessment of Transmission Cost Using Benchmarking Methodology TFO depreciation studies AESO. TCE.AESO-004 (a-d) Revised. February 14, 2007 TFO Asset Data for Capital Cost Study Rule 005 Annual Reports TFO Data for O&M Study TFOs tariff applications and underlying Excel files 5 www.londoneconomics.com ■ Approach LEI functionalized and classified costs drawing upon methods previously tested in Alberta Project Categories Existing and future/planned projects Functionalization Classification Bulk Demand Energy Regional Demand Energy Point of Delivery Methods: Voltage (recommended) Economics (considered) MW-km (considered) Methods used: Minimum System Approach ► LEI utilized methods of cost allocation similar to prior studies, while enhancing the process by taking into account planned/future projects ► After reviewing the strengths and weaknesses of the different functionalization approaches and considering the rate design principles, we recommend functionalization by voltage as the method going forward ► O&M costs were functionalized by first deriving non-capital costs from revenue requirement information provided by the TFOs, and using allocators such as actual line and substation costs for related expenses, proportion of full time equivalents in cost centers for salaries and wages etc. ► For classification, we adapted the minimum system approach for the transmission system ► After arriving at functionalization and classification results, we commented on implementation considerations, providing recommendations consistent with cost causation 6 www.londoneconomics.com ■ Recommendatons LEI’s recommendations focus on consistency with cost causation; each will be discussed in greater detail in the presentation Area Recommendation Functionalization by voltage approach going forward Functionalization of Capital Costs Functionalization of O&M costs Classification of bulk and regional costs Implementation considerations Relative to 2007 GTA, significantly higher proportion of costs functionalized as bulk, and significantly lower as POD Rationale / comments Least subjective and consistent with cost causation principles Has been acceptable to the Commission in the past and is transparent for all stakeholders Consistent with expectations, given the amount of bulk projects in the 2012 LTP Between 2007 GTA and end of 2016, bulk system costs are projected to increase by approximately $9.5 billion, while POD costs increased by around $1.8 billion Use 2014 results for the period 2014-2016 (2015 and 2016 cost projections not available from TFOs) Given that there is no material change in future capital cost functionalization ratios between 2014 (bulk 84%) and 2016 (bulk 86%), a material change in O&M functionalization ratios is not anticipated Relative to previous O&M study, functionalization of bulk O&M has increased from 16.5% to 29.1% Sensible given significant planned investment, however relative to regional and POD functions, bulk has less O&M costs in proportion to capital costs Classify using the minimum system approach Results reflect cost causation Previously approved in Alberta Higher proportions for demand-related costs as compared to energy-related costs Expected because transmission primarily serves peak load Apply combined capital and O&M functionalization results Do not pose an issue of declining bulk charges in the face of extensive bulk investment planned Apply 2014, 2015 and 2016 results separately for each of the three years Consistent with cost causation 7 www.londoneconomics.com ■ Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions 8 Functionalization of capital costs > Definitions of transmission functions www.londoneconomics.com ■ The process of functionalization allocates costs into three functional groups: bulk, regional and POD These three functions do not have universally accepted definitions, however, LEI has defined them here generally, based on understanding of the Alberta transmission system, the results of prior cost causation studies, and experience in other jurisdictions Transmission functions Definition ► Defined as high voltage, and typically carries large amounts of electricity over long distances Provide high capacity interconnections between adjacent utilities or concentrated load centers geographically separated Typically operate at 500 kV and 240 kV AC or as High Voltage Direct Current (“HVDC”) Point-of-supply (“POS”) substations which are used to connect generation are also considered bulk Bulk system ► Transmits electricity from the bulk system to load centers with numerous PODs Regional system The lines are typically lower in capacity and shorter in length than bulk power lines and typically operate at 138 kV and 69 kV ► The point of delivery system serves distribution utilities or industrial customers POD system that connect directly to the transmission system Most obvious to identify: point of delivery substations, radial transmission lines which serve these substations, or radial transmission lines directly serving a customer can be considered POD 9 www.londoneconomics.com ■ 10 Functionalization of capital costs > Existing asset data LEI received asset data from the four major TFOs with varying levels of detail ► Line and substation-level details data required for functionalization methods Net book values Voltages Line lengths TFO Data Received AltaLink • • ATCO • • • Existing asset NBV ($ millions, depreciated to 2016) ENMAX • • EPCOR • Missing Data Line and substation-level details on net book values, voltages and line lengths Substation secondary voltages Original costs for lines and substations Line and substation-level details on voltages and line lengths Accumulated depreciation aggregated to line and substation totals • Line and substation-level details on net book values Net book values aggregated to substation and transmission totals Line and substation-level details on voltages and line lengths • Line and substation-level details on net book values Net book values and accumulated depreciation up to 2011, aggregated to Genesee Switchyard, transmission, and substation totals • Line and substation-level details on net book values, voltages and line lengths Net book values and accumulated depreciation for 2012 • Functionalization of capital costs > Future asset data sources www.londoneconomics.com ■ 11 Sources for future asset data included 2012 LTP, AESO benchmarking file and project progress reports ► AUC instructed AESO to consider a forecast of capital build for the entire expected effective tariff term, using the LTP as a starting point (Decision 2010-606) ► The 2012 LTP (filed in June 2012) projected total cost estimate of $13.5 billion for projects in service by 2020, with significant bulk investment Projects coming online until 2016 ($11.7 billion) were considered for the purpose of this analysis ► AESO provided LEI with additional data sources beyond the data contained in the LTP AESO cost benchmarking data file: Provided significant future line data, mostly extracted from Proposal to Provide Services documents, which are usually included with Needs Identification Documents (“NID”s) and/or Facility Applications (“FA”s) – More up to date than the LTP data, though LEI understands that NID level documents have a cost estimate which is of a +30%/-30% quality, while FAs are of a +20%/-10% or better quality Individual project progress report files (as of November 2012): Referred to as “progress reports”, which are reports submitted to the Transmission Facility Cost Monitoring Committee (“TFCMC”) ► LEI identified missing data to the AESO, and voltage information was provided for specific projects and taken into account $2 billion of projects are still in the planning stage and have not progressed to the point where further details are available $1 billion of the $2 billion is from the South Area Transmission Reinforcement (“SATR”), which is a staged project meaning some stages are contingent on reaching particular milestones – therefore, detailed cost data is not available www.londoneconomics.com ■ 12 Functionalization of capital costs > Recommendations for data tracking LEI recommends initiation of specific requirements for data tracking ► Challenges were encountered in obtaining adequate data for the analysis ► ► One of the TFO’s line and substation-level asset information, net book values, voltages, and line lengths were not received Significant manual data matching was undertaken by LEI for future/planned projects, as data was provided from multiple sources which were not fully cross-referenced AESO provided over two hundred documents for this analysis Documents such as the project progress reports provided varying levels of detail LEI recommends making the TFOs aware of the specific data requirements (line and substation level details on net book values, voltages and line length), so accounting systems are configured to take these requirements into account Due to changes with systems and personnel at one of the TFOs, it was not possible to confirm that the categories provided contain the exact same accounts as the accounts used in the 2005 Transmission Cost Causation Study ► Initiation of appropriate data tracking would reduce the effort required for future cost causation studies or regulatory proceedings by the TFOs and the AESO ► Although LEI completed the analysis on a best effort basis, it was not possible to guarantee 100% completeness of the data Data requirements for lines Line # Voltage (kV) Length (km) Radial (Y/N) Net Book Value ($ million) A 138 15 Y 4 B 240 20 N 10 Data requirements for substations Sub# Primary Voltage (kV) Secondary Voltage (kV) Net Book Value ($ million) C 240 138 4 D 69 25 2 Functionalization of capital costs > Utilization of future data www.londoneconomics.com ■ 13 LEI followed a structured process to refine the information received • Any projects with in-service dates post-2016 were excluded • LTP projects were matched with project reference codes Data Matching and Exclusion • Using project reference codes and LTP descriptions, progress reports were matched to their respective LTP projects • Using project reference codes, the data in the AESO cost benchmarking data file was matched to LTP projects • Any AESO cost benchmarking data which did not match LTP projects was excluded (e.g. existing projects) • Any AESO cost benchmarking data with missing lengths or voltages was excluded • AESO cost benchmarking data file was used as the starting point, as it provided line lengths and voltages on a line by line basis, which was necessary for certain functionalization methods Determining Final Line Data • Progress reports were assumed to be the most up-to-date source of information. Many line list projects costs were similar to the progress report costs, and LEI multiplied the AESO cost benchmarking data file costs by a scaling factor in order to update them for the latest information • When progress reports were not available or insufficient, and AESO cost benchmarking data file costs were similar to LTP costs, AESO cost benchmarking data file costs were used as they are deemed to be more up to date than LTP costs • Certain projects which were still in planning stages, and had not progressed to the NID stage were lacking details. AESO provided voltage data for planning stage projects • The June 2013 Draft Transmission Rate Impact Model ("TRIP") was used to update in service dates of certain projects Determining Final Substation Data • Progress reports were used as a starting point, as they were the most up to date data source, and provided a breakdown of substation costs and voltages. The LTP did not break costs down at the substation level • Certain projects which were still in planning stages had not progressed to the NID stage, and were lacking details. AESO provided voltage data for planning stage projects www.londoneconomics.com ■ 14 Functionalization of capital costs > Utilization of future data Following the process presented on previous slide, information was matched and organized into usable data Data details ► Information without cost data cannot be quantified and has not been included ► Lines with voltage information, but no length information were functionalized by voltage (~$100 million) ► Large projects with a construction duration of more than 1 year (Hanna, Foothills, SATR, East/West HVDC), allowance for funds used during construction (“AFUDC”) is accounted for Applied assumptions in the AESO Draft Transmission Rate Impact Projection Model ► For projects that come into service after 2016 as per the 2012 LTP (~$1.8 billion), no construction work in progress (“CWIP”) costs are in the revenue requirement in and before 2016 ► “Other costs” and data with missing details do not have enough information to be functionalized by the various methods, but are taken into account when calculating the weighted final functionalization results Total data used: $10.6B Excluded: $2.8B “Other Costs” are comprised of distributed costs, owners’ costs, AFUDC, salvage and engineering & supervision costs Functionalization of capital costs > Functionalization methods www.londoneconomics.com ■ 15 LEI explored functionalization using three methods before settling upon the voltage approach Functionalization by: Voltage MW-km Economics www.londoneconomics.com ■ 16 Functionalization of capital costs > Voltage approach Voltage levels of lines and substations are utilized to functionalize capital costs by voltage approach Functionalization by voltage (line voltage, substation secondary voltage) Existing and future assets: functionalization by voltage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 86.0% Regional Existing assets Future assets 69 kV ► 43.0% 29.7% 27.3% 12.6% Regional POD Overall functionalization by voltage (weighted by NBV) ► 80% 70% 66.7% All radial lines serving a single point of delivery are considered POD Radial lines serving a generator are POS, and considered bulk ► 50% 40% 30% 17.6% 20% 15.7% 10% 0% Bulk LEI functionalized substations based on secondary voltages 60% Regional POD Although the voltage approach does not differentiate between functions within a voltage level, LEI believes that the distortions are few during the rate term (2014-2016), and that this definition will be durable in the long term 240 kV Existing and future lines functionalized by voltage 1.4% Bulk 138 kV Bulk Secondary voltage of 25 kV or lower is POD Existing substations which have contracted capacity specified in the AESO POD database are functionalized accordingly Demand Transmission Service (“DTS”) contract substations are POD Supply Transmission Service (“STS”) contract substations are point-of-supply (“POS”) and therefore bulk Substations with both DTS and STS contracts are allocated to POD and bulk by their contract capacity Functionalization of capital costs > Economics approach www.londoneconomics.com ■ 17 Functionalization by economics compares the economics of building a high or low voltage system ► Functionalization by economics determines functional categories by assessing whether it makes more economic sense to build a high voltage line or a low voltage line ► Economic analysis performed on a hypothetical 240 kV line with 240 kV PODs, compared against the cost of a 240-138 kV substation, 138 kV line and 138 kV PODs. ► ► Option A is more economic for energy delivery with fewer PODs and thus over longer distances Option B is more economic if many points of delivery are required, as the 138 kV PODs are less expensive than 240 kV PODs Option A: 240 kV system with 240 kV PODs Option B: 240-138 kV system with 138kV PODs Relative cost of components determines the breakpoint at which it would become economical to build Option B rather than A LEI first worked with AESO planners to determine typical substation and POD design in Alberta AESO 2011 Unit Cost Guide costs were applied to each of the designs Costs found in the 2011 Unit Cost Guide were then validated against AESO Benchmarking Database for Alberta Transmission Projects (March 28, 2013) Lines that are below the breakpoint, measured in line length, are considered regional, and lines above the breakpoint are considered bulk The hypothetical lines are both 150 km long, which for example is the distance between Calgary and Red Deer, or Red Deer to Edmonton www.londoneconomics.com ■ 18 Functionalization of capital costs > Economics approach The economics approach uses a theoretical breakpoint to functionalize 240 kV and 138 kV lines Existing and future assets: functionalization by economics 87.9% Existing assets Future assets Functionalization by economics uses the same rules as functionalization by voltage, except for 138 kV and 240 kV lines ► For a low number of PODs, the 240 kV POD system is economic, but as more PODs are required, the 138 kV system becomes more economic 43.0% 39.5% 600 17.5% 1.4% Bulk Regional POD Overall functionalization by economics (weighted by NBV) 80% 300 200 100 0 0 70% 60% 40% 30% 13.0% 15.7% Regional POD 10 km between PODs 15 20 240 kV lines are economic when they are longer than 13.8 km, and thus, are treated as bulk; 240 kV lines shorter than 13.8 km are more economic as 138 kV systems, and therefore are considered regional 138 kV lines are economic when they are shorter than 13.8 km, and thus, are treated as regional; 138 kV lines longer than 13.8 km are more economic as 240 kV systems, and therefore are considered bulk 10% 0% Compared to the voltage approach, the economics approach results in slightly more bulk and less regional functionalization; POD functionalization not affected 5 Assuming PODs are equal distance from one another, estimated point at which the systems are the same cost, or the breakpoint, is at 13.8 km ► 50% Bulk 240 kV PODs 400 71.3% 20% 138 kV system 500 10.8% Cost ($ millions) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ► Functionalization of capital costs > MW-km approach www.londoneconomics.com ■ 19 MW-km method utilizes MW loadings and line lengths ► Functionalization by MW-km is based on the concept that bulk lines carry large amounts of power over long distances ► Lines with high MW-km ratings are considered bulk, while lines with lower MW-km ratings are considered regional ► Line lengths (km) were obtained from the data sources previously discussed ► Line loadings (MW) were acquired from the AESO 2013 Planning Base Case Suite, specifically using the 2015 winter peak case ► The 2015 case was chosen in the absence of a 2016 case, as it lies within the rate period of 2014-2016, and would thus be representative of system conditions during that time The winter peak case was chosen, because in peak conditions, the system would be heavily loaded, which would emphasize the function of transmission components Functionalizing substations occurs by voltage, as there was insufficient data to match individual substations to their respective secondary voltage lines, making it difficult to functionalize substations by the MW-km approach www.londoneconomics.com ■ 20 Functionalization of capital costs > MW-km approach One of the challenges with the MW-km approach is setting an appropriate breakpoint Lines with a higher MW-km rating than the breakpoint are functionalized as bulk and lines which are lower are functionalized as regional ► The percentage is determined based on what percentages of lines (by line length) are higher or lower than a breakpoint In the voltage approach, 240 kV lines are considered to be bulk, while 138 kV lines are considered to be regional The average MW-km of 138 kV lines is 466 MW-km, while the average of 240 kV lines is 3,662 MW-km 2,000 MW breakpoint was validated by ensuring Higher than the maximum 69 kV MW-km rating observed (1,614 MW-km), which ensures no 69 kV lines will be functionalized as bulk Lower than the minimum 500 kV line rating observed (2,484 MW-km), which ensures no 500 kV lines will be functionalized as regional MW-km Rat ing Volt age Min. Avg. Max. 69 kV 0.3 87.2 1,614.0 138 kV 0.1 466.2 8,150.0 240 kV 4.4 3,661.5 27,570.8 500 kV 2,484.4 9,970.4 40,138.8 MW-km rating scatterplot Breakpoint was chosen to be the midpoint at 2,000 MW-km ► The MW-km method analyzes the MW-km ratings of lines for each voltage, which determines percentage of each voltage that are bulk or regional MW-km rating distribution 45,000 500 kV 40,000 240 kV 138 kV 69 kV 35,000 MW-km Rating ► 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 200 400 MW 600 800 Functionalization of capital costs > MW-km approach www.londoneconomics.com ■ 21 The MW-km approach functionalizes more future assets as regional relative to the other two approaches Existing and future assets: functionalization by MWkm Overall functionalization by MW-km (weighted by NBV) Among the three methodologies, the MW-km approach results in lowest bulk and highest regional functionalization; POD functionalization remains the same across the three approaches www.londoneconomics.com ■ 22 Functionalization of capital costs > Summary and recommendation Previous cost causation study utilized an average of three methods Functionalization results (end of 2016) 80% 70% 71.3% 66.7% 62.5% Economics Voltage MW-km 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 13.0% 17.6% 21.8% 15.7% 15.7% 15.7% 10% 0% Bulk Regional POD www.londoneconomics.com ■ 23 Functionalization of capital costs > Methodologies LEI recommends the voltage approach, as it reflects cost causation and is least subjective Method Strengths • Least subjective; simple and easy to understand • • used across various jurisdictions (Ontario, California, and Australia) less sensitive to evolving functions as compared to MW-km (that uses current loading forecasts) • high voltage projects serving a regional purpose and low voltage projects serving bulk purposes may not be taken into account properly • setting theoretical line length of 150 km is subjective • biased in functionalizing more costs as bulk • may not reflect evolving functions over time • may not be appropriate to apply current economics to past projects Voltage • Economics MW-km Weaknesses • results similar to other methodologies unique and measurable metric • reflects evolving functions over time • subject to error in line loading forecasts • more representative of study period, using forecasted flows • setting breakpoint is subjective • • multiple metrics used forecast is a single point in time and may not be representative of all hours and years Although LEI considered the MVA-km approach, it was not chosen for analysis, due to the subjective nature of setting a breakpoint, an inability to reflect evolution of the system, and lack of prior use in Alberta or elsewhere Functionalization of capital costs > Clearly identifiable projects www.londoneconomics.com ■ 24 As a method of comparing the functionalization approaches, LEI also analyzed Clearly Identified Bulk Projects ► Clearly Identified Bulk Projects (“CIBP”) are defined as LTP projects that cross LTP bulk cut-planes ► Assuming that all lines built within each clearly identified bulk project are bulk, it is possible to compare the functionalization of the voltage and economics methods As an example, within the Foothills project, which is a bulk project, a 240 kV line was built to connect Janet 74S to ENMAX No. 25. The voltage approach classified this line as bulk, whereas the economics method classified this line as regional ► Available line data showed that the voltage approach functionalized 2% of CIBP as regional, while the economics approach functionalized 4% of CIBP as regional ► Data that would allow LEI to determine performance of the MWkm approach in functionalizing CIBP was not available The MW-km approach utilizes the 2015 AESO Base Case, which identifies lines by bus, but does not indicate the LTP project to which each line belongs Project Name Cost w AFUDC (2011 $ millions) Cutplane Crossed East/West HVDC 2,951 SOK Cutplane West Fort McMurray 500 kV Stage 1a 1,649 Northeast Cutplane Foothills (FATD) 711 South Cutplane Heartland 500 kV 537 Northeast Cutplane Bickerdike to Little Smoky 205 Northwest Cutplane LTP bulk cut-planes Functionalization of capital costs > Current study results vs. previously approved www.londoneconomics.com ■ 25 Relative to 2007 GTA, capital costs functionalized as bulk are projected to increase by over $9 billion by end of 2016 Updated capital cost functionalization by voltage (2014-2016) Updated 2016 functionalization compared against 2007 GTA functionalization 80% Bulk 70% Regional 66.8% POD 66.7% 60.6% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20.1%19.3% 17.7% 15.6% 17.6% 15.7% 2015 2016 10% 0% 2014 Current cost causation study shows a significantly higher proportion of costs functionalized as bulk, which is consistent with expectations, given the amount of bulk projects in the 2012 LTP. Note that this would be true under any of the three functionalization methodologies considered www.londoneconomics.com ■ 26 Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions O&M cost functionalization > Information received and utilized www.londoneconomics.com ■ 27 TFOs have not projected their O&M costs up to 2016; information for two large TFOs used for functionalization ► Information utilized for functionalization of O&M costs was received for AltaLink and ATCO (up until 2014), EPCOR (up until 2012) and ENMAX (until 2011) for functionalization of O&M costs ► In addition to requesting specific data from the TFOs, the following sources (provided by the AESO) were used for obtaining information: AltaLink: GTA 2013-2014 Schedules ATCO Electric: GTA 2013-2014 ENMAX Power: Transmission AUC Rule 005 report: Annual Operations Financial and Operating reporting for the year ended December 31st, 2011 EPCOR: 2012 Phase I DTA & TFO TA Refiling 80-85% of combined transmission revenue requirement is attributable to ATCO and AltaLink over the period 2006-2011 ► Individual TFO share (%) in combined revenue requirement 50% 45% 40% 46% 44% 39% 46% 38% 38% 46% 46% 45% 41% 39% 38% 35% 30% 20% 10% considered projecting the revenue requirement and capital/non-capital cost split for ENMAX and EPCOR up to 2014 by observing their cost growth patterns relative to ATCO and AltaLink historically, and extrapolating for the future. However, no clear linkages were found between their respective revenue requirement growth rates, and any such forecasts would be highly assumptions-driven ► LEI also reviewed cost information in project progress reports 25% 15% ► LEI 10% 7% 7%8% 10% 7% 10% 7% 9% 6% 5% 8% 5% 0% 2006 2007 AltaLink 2008 2009 ATCO Electric 2010 ENMAX 2011 EPCOR received from AESO to observe the project cost split between the four TFOs; over 95% of costs are attributable to ATCO and AltaLink owned projects ► Given the small share of ENMAX and EPCOR in existing and future projected costs, assumptions-driven revenue requirement forecasts are unnecessary, as they will have an immaterial impact on functionalization results www.londoneconomics.com ■ 28 O&M cost functionalization > Breakdown of revenue requirement Non-capital cost proportion of revenue requirement has been gradually declining given significant capital investment plans ► After obtaining revenue requirement information, costs that are capital-related and non-capital related were identified. Non-capital costs included: O&M costs directly associated with the electric transmission system such as labor costs, G&A costs associated with the operation the overall business of the TFOs, affiliate revenue offsets, i.e., revenues that offset labor costs Fuel and variable O&M costs associated with isolated generation serving remote communities was also included as non-capital costs ─ ATCO Electric is the only TFO that reports fuel costs. The underlying rationale is that instead of building transmission facilities (i.e. extending the regional and POD system) to serve certain remote areas, it is more economical to operate isolated generation facilities to serve these areas ► Since 2009, although the actual amount of non-capital costs has been increasing, the percentage of noncapital costs has been gradually declining steadily (particularly for the two largest TFOs, ATCO and AltaLink), reducing projected overall share of non-capital costs to 16.01% by 2014 ► Given the significant capital investment plan in the LTP and a high proportion of investment related to AltaLink and ATCO, it can be reasonably argued that this trend will continue and the non-capital cost share would further decline by 2016 Using 5-yr rolling averages, non-capital cost share was forecasted for 2015 (14.2%) and 2016 (12.3%) Non-capital costs (value and as a % of revenue requirement) Non Capit al Cost s ($) AltaLink ATCO Electric ENMAX EPCOR Sum of Four TFO 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 63,230,001 80,346,474 84,551,219 100,207,059 107,336,440 118,860,960 62,000,000 61,962,863 72,583,190 85,167,268 91,799,633 99,502,033 20,309,000 20,881,000 23,234,000 N.A. N.A. N.A. 14,723,524 18,073,084 19,055,546 20,094,570 N.A. N.A. 160,262,525 181,263,421 199,423,955 205,468,898 199,136,073 218,362,993 Non-capital cost share – trend and projection 35% Forecast Actual 30% 25% 20% Non Capit al Cost s/Rev Req. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15% AltaLink ATCO Electric ENMAX EPCOR Combined for TFOs 25.6% 30.0% 56.0% 27.9% 29.5% 28.3% 25.4% 55.1% 32.8% 29.2% 24.0% 23.2% 57.3% 32.5% 26.1% 24.4% 20.9% N.A 30.7% 23.3% 20.4% 16.9% N.A N.A 18.62% 17.4% 14.6% N.A N.A 16.01% 10% 5% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f O&M cost functionalization > Allocators and results www.londoneconomics.com ■ 29 O&M cost functionalization results are not anticipated to change materially over the 2014-2016 period ► Similar to capital cost functionalization, O&M costs have been functionalized bulk, regional and POD ► Not all non-capital costs have been functionalized G&A costs, which are not directly associated with the operations of electric transmission system, but assist in overall operation of the business, such as expenses associated with the maintenance of the corporate head office, have not been functionalized. Instead overall O&M functionalization results have been applied to these costs ► With regards to functionalization of some other non-capital costs (other than G&A costs), the following approach has been taken: Fuel costs and variable O&M costs associated with isolated generation have been functionalized as regional or POD because any transmission system otherwise being built to serve these small remote areas would likely be regional or POD (using overall capital cost functionalization ratio of regional to POD) Net salaries and wages have been allocated to various groups (such as control center operations, station equipment maintenance, overhead line expenses etc.) using proportion of full time equivalents (“FTE”) in each group, where provided Line and substation capital cost information split between bulk, regional and POD has been used to set allocators for related O&M costs, such as overhead line expenses and substation expenses respectively ► Given the significant transmission investment in the current decade, an increase in functionalization of bulk costs is observed (from 16.5% in previous study to 29.1% in current study), but relative to regional and POD, bulk has less than average O&M costs in proportion to capital costs O&M cost functionalization 40% 37.0% 33.9% 35% 30% 29.1% As 2015 and 2016 projections are not available, 2014 results have been used for functionalization purposes Given that there is no material change in future capital cost functionalization ratios between 2014 and 2016, LEI does not anticipate a material change in O&M functionalization ratios over the 2014-2016 period 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Bulk Regional POD Future capital costs functionalization Bulk 100% 90% Regional 86.1% 84.1% POD 86.0% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 13.6% 2.3% 12.3% 1.5% 12.6% 1.4% 0% 2014 2015 2016 www.londoneconomics.com ■ 30 Combined capital and O&M cost functionalization > Results Combined capital and O&M cost functionalization results are consistent with planned transmission investment Combined capital and O&M cost functionalization 70% Bulk Regional 61.2% ► POD Capital cost and O&M cost functionalization results were combined using combined non-capital to capital costs ratio estimated for 2014 to 2016 Non-Capit al t o Capit al Cost s Non-Capital Capital 62.0% 2014 16.0% 84.0% 2015 14.2% 85.8% 2016 12.3% 87.7% 60% 55.2% ► The combined functionalization results show a higher proportion functionalized as bulk, as compared to AEUB-approved functionalization in AESO 2007 GTA ► This is sensible given the significant amount of bulk and regional investment planned to come online in the 2012 LTP, as discussed in earlier slides ► The decline in POD functionalization since the 2007 GTA is due to relatively higher bulk and regional investment compared to POD investment 50% 41.7% 40.9% 40% 30% 22.5% 22.3% 20% 17.4% Capit al cost s funct ionalized ($ million) 20.1% 18.7% 19.6% 18.4% Bulk Regional POD Total 10% ► 0% 2007 GTA (Capital only) 2014 2015 2016 2007 GTA 2014 2015 2016 678 233 572 1,482 6,681 2,215 2,124 11,020 9,685 2,561 2,261 14,507 10,175 2,677 2,397 15,248 Increase (2016 vs. 2007) 9,497 2,444 1,825 13,766 Between 2007 and end of 2016, bulk system costs are expected to increase by approximately $9.5 billion, regional system costs by $2.4 billion, while POD costs by around $1.8 billion www.londoneconomics.com ■ 31 Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions www.londoneconomics.com ■ 32 Classification > Methodologies Classification separates functionalized costs into demand, and energy ► Classification separates functionalized costs typically to: Demand costs (vary with kW demand) ► There are no standardized methods; all methods described below could be adapted for use on the transmission system ► First deployed for distribution systems, though PSTI previously adapted the minimum system approach for the transmission system A minimum system is defined and used to determine the demand component, since minimum system costs are driven by serving total load Additional costs for the optimized system are allocated to energy since costs incurred beyond the minimum system are driven by energy usage considerations and to optimize for energy losses Zero intercept method regresses installed costs to capacity, in order to find a no-load intercept which represents the customer component ► Previous cost causation studies utilized the minimum system and zero intercept methods Minimum system approach utilizes the ratio between a minimum transmission system and an optimized system to determine demand and energy components ► Energy costs (vary with kWh energy) NARUC argues that it is more data intensive and the differences may be relatively small Used in 2005 PSTI study to classify POD costs LEI also considered marginal cost approach and average and excess approach, though these were ruled out as they have been previously rejected in Alberta Source: National Association of Regulatory Utilities Commissioners (NARUC) Electricity Cost Allocation Manual www.londoneconomics.com ■ 33 Classification > Methodologies LEI selected the minimum system approach for classification of bulk and regional costs as it reflects cost causation and has been accepted previously by the regulator Method Strengths Minimum system approach • results reflect cost causation • commonly used in distribution systems, though can be adapted for use in transmission systems • previously approved by the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board for bulk and regional classification • Minimum intercept Marginal cost approach Average and excess approach Weaknesses • actual minimum size can be subjective may be more granular • requires considerably more data than minimum system approach • results reflect cost causation • results may be similar to minimum system approach • previously approved by the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board for POD classification • may contributes to efficient resource allocation • marginal costs for transmission related investments are difficult to determine • has been rejected in the past in Alberta • precision and simplicity of embedded cost method may be superior • no generally-accepted standard methodology • has been rejected in the past in Alberta • may provide a poor price signal to customers • takes into account actual line loadings ► To perform the minimum system approach, a minimum line and optimized line must be identified ► To approximate demand versus energy related costs, LEI has defined “minimum” and “optimal” conductor sizes as comparable lines that TFOs would consider, where the optimized line minimizes losses over the minimum line ► Cost information for various conductor sizes was sourced from the AESO cost benchmarking data file, which was also used to determine future line details The AESO cost benchmarking data file is estimated to contain 95% of the projects since 2005, and was filtered for new projects with no missing conductor size or voltage data www.londoneconomics.com ■ 34 Classification > Bulk conductor classification Bulk system classification took into account 240 kV and 500 kV lines LEI identified the commonly used conductor sizes in Alberta, with input from AESO staff ► Two most common 240 kV constructed conductor sizes are 2x795 and 2x1033 thousand circular mils (“MCM”) ACSR These were defined to be minimum and optimal respectively Minimum costs are average of 14 lines and optimal costs are average of 18 lines from AESO cost benchmarking data file; costs were compared against June 2013“Capital Cost Benchmark Study For 240kV Transmission and Substation Projects” ► Costs were normalized to a double circuit line strung both sides, which is a common configuration in Alberta The 240 kV conductor classification results in a ratio of 91.8% demand to 8.2% energy Limited data was found for 500 kV conductors in Alberta, so costs were sourced from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) The minimum was defined to be a 2x2156 MCM ACSR conductor and the optimal was defined to be a 3x1590 MCM ACSR conductor The 500 kV conductor classification results in a ratio of 90.5% demand to 9.5% energy The final bulk classification was determined by weighting 500 kV and 240 kV classifications together The bulk conductor classification results in a ratio of 91.6% demand to 8.4% energy 240 kV - minimum and optimal conductor size costs 1,800,000 1,600,000 Cost of Conductor ($/km) ► 1,591,085 1,460,991 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 240 kV Line - 2 X 795 240 kV Line - 2 x 1033 Minimum System Optimal System 500 kV - minimum and optimal conductor size costs www.londoneconomics.com ■ 35 Classification > Conductor and substation classification Bulk conductor classification results in more than 90% demand related costs Regional Classification ► ► Two most commonly constructed 138 kV conductor sizes are 266 and 477 MCM ACSR, considered minimum and optimal respectively Costs were normalized to single circuit lines in order for them to be comparable Minimum costs are average of 46 lines and optimal costs are average of 21 lines from AESO cost benchmarking data file 138 kV - minimum and optimal conductor size costs $450,000 $416,963 Cost of Conductor ($/km) $400,000 $350,000 $345,492 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 ► The optimized substation is defined as one which minimizes losses over a minimum substation ► LEI was able to obtain a quote for a POD transformer which included both: a “Standard Losses and Sound Level” transformer, which LEI has considered a minimum system, and a “Lower No-Load Loss & Sound Level” transformer,* which given its lower loss characteristic, LEI considers the optimal system Classification Percentage ► Substation Classification 100% 2.8% 80% 60% 97.2% 40% 20% 0% Demand Related Costs $150,000 Energy Related Costs ► The "minimum system" POD transformer is approximately 2.8% less expensive than an "optimal system" POD transformer $100,000 $50,000 $138 kV Line - 266 138 kV Line - 477 Minimum System Optimal Lines The regional conductor classification results in a ratio of 82.9% demand to 17.1% energy ► Regional and bulk power transformers are expected to have a similar percentage cost increase in material and manufacturing costs for an "optimal system" transformer, and thus, the same results apply to both regional and bulk power transformers Classification > Substation classification and classification results www.londoneconomics.com ■ 36 Classification results show that a majority of costs are demand-related Overall bulk and regional classification results ► To obtain final bulk and regional classification results, the line classification results were weighted with substation classification results using line and substation asset values ► LEI’s classification results for both bulk and regional systems, which as one would expect, have significantly higher proportions for demand-related costs as compared to energy-related costs 2007 Board decision: ► Board does not consider that significant adjustments should be necessary in the foreseeable future; the Board considers that the portion of wires costs classified as energy related should remain fairly low and be determined by the cost of service study Board decision quote www.londoneconomics.com ■ 37 Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions www.londoneconomics.com ■ 38 Implementation considerations LEI recommends using combined capital and O&M cost functionalization results separately in each of the three years Following three considerations analyzed by studying the resulting revenue requirement breakdown: I. II. III. Whether results from the study would result in reversing trends in rates that could give confusing price signals; If one part of the study would result in a change that was opposite to a change from another part of the study; and Whether functionalization and classification recommendations justify averaging or trending results in order to improve stability of rates Revenue requirement breakdown after applying combined functionalization and classification results Revenue Requirement Split ($ million) Bulk - Demand Bulk - Energy Regional - Demand Regional - Energy POD Total 2014 764 63 2015 1,011 83 2016 1,136 93 295 41 315 44 342 48 333 1,497 335 1,787 365 1,984 I: The resulting revenue requirement breakdown in table above (after implementing combined functionalization and classification results) shows that the requirement across bulk and regional rate components is increasing on an annual basis, indicating no reversing trends * With the exception of POD where revenue requirement reduces slightly in 2015 Revenue requirement breakdown after applying capital cost results only Revenue Requirement Split ($ million) Bulk - Demand Bulk - Energy Regional - Demand Regional - Energy POD Total 2014 834 69 2015 1,100 90 2016 1,221 100 266 37 278 39 307 43 291 1,497 280 1,787 313 1,984 II: If one part of the study, i.e., only capital cost functionalization results were applied (table above), the impact is not in opposing directions, i.e., revenue requirement trend remains positive and increasing across most of the rate components* More costs being functionalized as bulk Sensible given that the bulk system function has less than average associated O&M costs in proportion to capital costs, as compared to the regional and POD functions LEI recommends applying combined capital and O&M functionalization results as they are consistent with cost causation, and they do not pose an issue of declining bulk charges in the face of extensive bulk investment planned III: Finally, to be consistent with cost causation, LEI recommends applying 2014, 2015 and 2016 functionalization results separately to each of the three years www.londoneconomics.com ■ 39 Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions Appendix > Special projects www.londoneconomics.com ■ 40 LEI was separately asked to identify ‘special’ projects, not primarily planned to serve peak load ► ► ► ► ► Discussions with the TCCWG indicated that members desired a distinction between ‘conventional’ transmission projects in the LTP, which are primarily driven by load, and ‘special’ projects LEI has defined projects which are clearly driven to interconnect renewable energy or driven by reliability purposes, but not primarily driven by load as “special” NIDs and details from the LTP have been used for initial identification of special projects LEI reviewed all 2012 LTP projects with costs greater than $100 million, accounting for $12.3 billion (approximately 91% of all planned projects by value in the 2012 LTP) Due to limited data availability/matching, LEI was unable to take a quantitative approach to identify and/or validate special projects by analyzing utilization rates during winter peak in the 2015 base case suite Project Name South Area Transmission Reinforcement (SATR) Bickerdike to Little Smoky* Cost w AFUDC (2011 $ millions) Comments 2,287 Primarily planned to interconnect renewable energy (wind) 205 Primarily planned to serve under abnormal system conditions LEI believes that special transmission projects are triggered as a result of public policy, and despite distinct purposes, arguably have similar cost causation drivers to the rest of the system. The costs of special projects may be recovered in one of two ways: Treating it broadly as a social good, and recovering it as a tax (i.e. taxing every MWh equally); or Recovering it consistent with purpose or key driver ‘Purpose’ may not necessarily be the same as the ‘cost causation driver’. For instance, for grid strengthening related to emissions-free projects, it may be considered prudent to recover costs from customers who are causing some environmental impact Peak use likely causes greater emissions, which in turn drives demand for zero-emitting resources While a line’s purpose may be to serve renewables, ultimately the needs for it may be driven by peak users ► Furthermore, although a project may be built for the purposes of interconnecting renewable energy, significant portions of the project are likely to serve peak load as well ► Similarly, projects which are built for reliability purposes may not be primarily serving peak, but in practice, are likely to still serve load in some capacity * Note: Bickerdike to Little Smoky has not yet progressed to the NID stage, and should be re-evaluated once an NID is published. In addition, the June 2013 AESO Draft Transmission Rate Impact Projection model states this project is scheduled to be in service in 2017 www.londoneconomics.com ■ 41 Appendix > Special projects Special projects include costs that are primarily functionalized as bulk 70% Bulk Regional 60% POD 58.4% Special 57.9% 52.5% 50% 41.7% 40.9% 40% 30% 22.2% 20% 22.3% 19.8% 17.4% 18.7% 19.2% 18.4% 10% 3.0% 4.4% 3.0% 0% 2007 GTA 2014 2015 2016 Implications of separating out special projects will depend on how these projects are classified and incorporated into rates, if in a different manner, compared to other projects Appendix > O&M cost functionalization > Impact of changing allocation basis www.londoneconomics.com ■ 42 Impact of changing method for allocating certain line and substation related O&M costs is not significant O&M costs differently allocated Current Study allocation Substation expenses (station equipment maintenance, substation vegetation management) Overhead line expenses Previous O&M study allocation • Based on substation capital cost split between bulk, regional and POD • Based on number of transformer split between bulk/regional/POD • Based on line costs, i.e., line capital cost split between bulk, regional and POD • Based on line lengths, i.e., line kilometers split between bulk/regional/POD • Based on combined number of lines and transformers • Based on line lengths, i.e., line kilometers split between bulk/regional/POD • Internal assessment; Data not received for current study, using combined number of lines and transformers instead Control center costs Miscellaneous transmission expenses • Based on combined line and substation capital costs split between bulk, regional and POD Contracted manpower (AltaLink only) Impact of revised allocation basis on O&M cost functionalization 50.0% Current Allocators Similar to Previous allocators 40.0% 30.0% 60.0% 33.9% 30.4% 29.1% Similar to Previous allocators 62.0% 61.6% 37.0% 35.0% Current Allocators 70.0% 43.5% 45.0% Impact of revised allocation basis on combined functionalization (end of 2016) 26.1% 50.0% 40.0% 25.0% 20.0% 30.0% 15.0% 20.0% 19.6% 20.8% 18.4% 17.6% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bulk Regional POD Bulk Note: Due to change in AltaLink accounting systems, certain O&M cost categories and allocators were revised for AltaLink as well. Slide revised after technical meeting to add impact on O&M functionalization graphic (bottom left hand side) Regional POD Appendix > Rate design principles www.londoneconomics.com ■ 43 AESO has identified five rate design principles, based on Principles of Public Utility Rates by Bonbright et al 1 Recovery of total revenue requirement 2 Provision of appropriate price signals that reflect all costs and benefits 3 Fairness, objectivity and equity that avoids undue discrimination and minimizes inter-customer subsidies 4 Stability and predictability of rates and revenue 5 Practicality, such that rates are appropriately simple, convenient, understandable, acceptable and billable Source: Bonbright, James. Principles of Public Utility Rates. 1988 www.londoneconomics.com ■ 44 Approach > Cost allocation process Cost allocation exists at the boundary between transmission planning and pricing Identify potential projects Evaluate project net benefits Select projects to pursue Allocate costs/benefits across customers Planning ► Develop set of customer charges Pricing Three main steps to cost allocation process Functionalization Classification Allocation ► Dominant method of cost allocation is embedded cost studies, which are based on historical or known costs ► Functionalization is defined as grouping costs together with others that perform similar functions. Typical functions for the entire system include: (i) Production or purchased power; (ii) Transmission; (iii) Distribution; (iv) Customer service and facilities; and (v) Administrative/general ► When a transmission system is functionalized into only one transmission cost group, it is referred to as the “rolled-in method” and when placed into more groups, it is referred to as the “subfunctionalized method” Rolled-in method is used for highly integrated transmission facilities (where the network allows many alternative flows for power to flow). It is treated as a single system as all elements are considered to contribute to the economic and reliable operation of the overall system Subfunctionalized method is used to further distinguish the network. It can be based on line configuration, geography, or voltage, as well as other features. Due to high data requirements, this method should be used only for categories which have different cost consequences Source: National Association of Regulatory Utilities Commissioners (NARUC) Electricity Cost Allocation Manual www.londoneconomics.com ■ 45 Appendix > Economics approach cost updates LEI has updated costs associated with ‘economics’ functionalization approach using AESO's 2011 unit cost guide 2005 Analysis Station Type Element 240 kV circuit breaker (“CB”), ring buss & termination 240/138-100 MVA Station Number of Elements Cost per element Number of Elements Cost per element 2 $1,000,000 3 $2,010,000 1 $3,810,000 Site development & control bld 240/138-100 MVA transformer 1 $1,990,000 1 $4,000,000 138 kV CB, disconnects & termination 4 $750,000 3 $1,490,000 240 kV CB's, ring buss & termination 2 $1,000,000 3 $2,010,000 1 $3,810,000 1 $3,000,000 1 $1,960,000 Site development & control bld 240/25 kV 25 MVA POD 240/25-25 MVA transformer 2 $660,000 25 KV switch gear & buss 25 kV CB's 4 $250,000 4 $230,000 138 kV CB & termination 2 $750,000 1 $1,490,000 1 $1,460,000 1 $2,400,000 1 $1,960,000 4 $230,000 Site development & control bld 138/25 kV 25 MVA POD Update using AESO's 2011 unit cost guide 138/25-25 MVA transformer 2 $600,000 25 KV switch gear & buss 25 kV CB's 4 $250,000 www.londoneconomics.com ■ 46 Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions www.londoneconomics.com ■ 47 Case Studies > Overview LEI reviewed relevant methodologies in four other jurisdictions with unbundled transmission charges 2012 Peak Transmission Jurisdiction Load (MW) Lines (km) 10,609 21,000 Alberta Australia California Ontario 31,084 25,865 23,954 57,086 Great Britain Voltages Used 500kV 240kV 138/144 kV 115/70 kV 40,000 500 330 275 132 kV kV kV kV 41,600 500 kV 230 kV 115 kV 70 kV 30,000 500 kV 230 kV 115 kV 7,200* 400 kV 275 kV 132 kV Degree of Unbundling Most Recent Tariff Decision Period Date of Decision Transmission December charge 2011-2013 2010 unbundled Transmission charge 2012-13 to unbundled 2016-17 Transmission charge unbundled Transmission charge unbundled April 2012 Entity Regulator AESO Alberta Utilities Commission (“AUC”) Powerlink Australian Energy Regulator (“AER”) September San Diego December 2012 Gas & Electric 2011 onwards Company 2012 Transmission charge 2011-2012 unbundled FERC November 2011 Hydro One Ontario Energy Board (“OEB”) March 2011 National Grid Electricity Transmission Office of Gas & Electricity Markets (Ofgem) Sources: AESO, Alberta Energy, IESO, Australian Energy Regulator, NEM, CAISO, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, National Grid; *National Grid only www.londoneconomics.com ■ 48 Case Studies > Ontario In Ontario, transmission costs are functionalized, which are used to set uniform rates for all customers ► Assets functionalized into categories by voltage and what transmission elements they connect ► Network, Dual Function Line (Network and Line Connection), Line Connection, Transformation Connection, Generation Station Switchyards, Wholesale Meter, Common, and Other (details on next slide) Functional categories are then assigned directly to four rate pools Network Pool, Line Connection Pool, Transformation Connection Pool, and Wholesale Meter Pool ► The transmission system in Ontario sets uniform rates for all customers, which means the rate for network, line connection and transformation connection services are the same for all customers connected to the transmission system ► 2013 approved monthly rates ($/kW) are assigned on a demand basis Network Service Rate: $3.63 (at higher of coincident peak, or 85% of peak demand on weekdays between 7AM and 7PM) Line Connection Service Rate: $0.75 (at Non-Coincident Peak demand (MW) in any hour of the month) Transformation Connection Service Rate: $1.85 (at Non-Coincident Peak demand (MW) in any hour of the month) Ontario Cost Allocation Process Sources: ‘Description of Cost Allocation Methodology’: Hydro One Hydro One 2013 Revenue Requirement www.londoneconomics.com ■ 49 Case Studies > Ontario Hydro One assets in Ontario are functionalized into eight categories Line Connection Assets Network Assets 500 kV or 230 kV transmission facilities which connect network stations to each other Used for the benefit of all customers Transmission circuits and stations operating at 230 kV or 115 kV Transformation Connection Assets Transformer stations which step down from above 50 kV to below 50 kV Wholesale Meter Assets Metering facilities used for billing and settlement for transmission and/or wholesale energy charges Dual Function Line Assets Used both for the benefit of all customers and as a line connection asset Generation Station Switchyards Assets Switchyards which connect generating stations to the transmission system Common Assets Network, Line Connection, and Dual Function Line Assets Assets that serve the operation of the overall provincial system (e.g. control rooms, administration buildings) Sources: ‘Description of Cost Allocation Methodology’: Hydro One. Network Assets link network substations, major sources of generation, or major sources of load Other Transmission facilities which cannot be assigned to any other category Line Connection Assets connect network stations to load and/or generating stations Dual Function Line Assets are tapped to load and are normally operated parallel with network circuits or other Dual Function Lines or connect the interconnection circuits www.londoneconomics.com ■ 50 Case Studies > California California Transmission Access Charge functionalized into two categories, further functionalized by voltages ► Transmission Access Charge (TAC) includes costs for transmission facilities under CAISO operational control ► Functionalized into two categories, then by voltage, and is recovered through variable energy rates ► CAISO uses a $/MWh charge as it believes that it best captures use of the transmission system. Any demand related costs are indirectly built into this $/MWh charge Location Constrained Resource Interconnection Facility (LCRIF) Network Transmission Facility ► High voltage, 200 KV and above ► ► High Voltage Access Charge is a uniform $/MWh rate for all Participating Transmission Owners (PTO) loads Charge is the sum of individual PTO high voltage transmission revenue requirements divided by the sum of the PTO loads in MWh Similar to Alberta’s bulk classification by voltage approach Low voltage, below 200 KV Location Constrained Resource Interconnection Facility (LCRIF) ► Ratemaking and financing methodology to encourage the development of transmission in resource rich areas with inadequate transmission PTO rate recovery from: Generators that subscribe to a portion of the capacity Low Voltage Access Charge is a unique $/MWh rate for each PTO’s area load Charge is the PTO’s low voltage transmission revenue requirement divided by the PTO’s area load in MWh Unsubscribed capacity costs are added to the TAC Similar to Alberta’s regional classification by voltage approach As generation is developed and subscribes to the line, cost recovery is transferred to the generator and the TAC reduced accordingly Sources: Fifth Replacement California ISO tariff Case Studies > Australia www.londoneconomics.com ■ 51 In Australia, costs are functionalized into entry, exit, common transmission and transmission use of system services ► Separate prices are developed for each category of prescribed transmission service, which are recovered on fixed annual charges and variable energy charges Entry service – connection assets servicing a generator or a group of generators at a connection point - must be a fixed annual amount, which can vary by customer. It is recovered on a fixed $/day price Exit services – connection assets servicing a customer or group of customers at a connection point - must be a fixed annual amount, which can vary by customer. It is recovered on a fixed $/day price Transmission Use of System (TUOS) services cover the costs of shared network assets and non-asset related grid support ► ─ Location component is based on contract agreed maximum demand basis ($/MW/day) ─ Non-location component is postage-stamp based. It is determined on the basis of either a contract agreed maximum demand or historical energy and is calculated annually, depending on how the customer sets up their contract terms Common transmission services that provide equivalent benefits to all transmission customers – “postage-stamp” basis (same fixed cost for all customers). Recovered on the basis of contract agreed maximum demand or historical energy Transmission assets are attributed directly to each category as much as possible, and if not, are attributed using an “appropriate causal cost allocator” E.g. cost allocation based on number of circuit breakers that can be attributed to the different categories ElectraNet Prescribed Transmission Service Price Schedule – July 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013 Case Studies > Great Britain www.londoneconomics.com ■ 52 Great Britain performs cost causation differently from North American jurisdictions ► National Grid charges for the use of the transmission system on behalf of National Grid Electricity Transmission, Scottish Power Transmission and Scottish Hydro-Electric Transmission, using the Transmission Network Use of System (“TNUoS”) tariff Unlike the majority of North America, the TNUoS is paid for by both generation and demand resources, where generation pays for 27% and demand pays for 73% of the costs Generators that directly connect to the transmission system or embedded generators with a Bilateral Embedded Generation Agreement (“BEGA”), and those that are equal to 100 MW or larger are liable to pay TNUoS charges ► The TNUoS is composed of two components: a locational charge and a residual charge ► The locational component is classified using a marginal cost methodology known as the Investment Cost Related Pricing (“ICRP”) ► The ICRP estimates long run marginal costs of investment required for the transmission system, caused by an increase in demand or generation at each connection point or node. Hence, different costs are calculated for different locations in the market A metric used to measure investment costs is MW-km, which is unrelated to the MW-km method described for functionalization. In the context of the TNUoS, marginal costs are estimated in terms of increases or decreases in units of kilometers of the transmission system, for a 1 MW injection to the system. The residual, non-locational component of the TNUoS tariff is meant to recover the remaining amount of the revenue requirement that is not recovered by the locational component This portion exists because the marginal cost model for the locational component assumes smooth, incremental investment. However, in reality this capital investment is “lumpy” Large investments can be made for future requirements, which mean the system becomes non-optimal. The difference between the actual, nonoptimal system is accounted for by the residual component. Great Britain demand use of tariff zones www.londoneconomics.com ■ 53 Case Studies > Summary Cost causation methodologies differ from one jurisdiction to another Jurisdiction Functional Groups Classification Groups Allocation Method Alberta Bulk, Regional, Point of Delivery Demand, Energy, Point of Delivery Based on 12CP and NCP peak demands and energy Australia Entry Service, Exit Service, Transmission Use of System Service, Common Transmission Service Based on fixed $/day and $/MW/day maximum demand rates Network Transmission Facility, Location Constrained Resource Interconnection Facilities Based on locational and uniform $/MWh rates California High Voltage, Low Voltage (referred to as further functionalization) Network Pool, Line Connection Pool, Transformation Connection Pool, and Wholesale Meter Pool (referred to as rate pools) Ontario Network, Line Connection, Dual Function Line, Transformation Connection, Generation Station Switchyards, Wholesale meter, Common, Other Great Britain Loads that pay the TNUoS can be differentiated into half-hourly (“HH”) metered (peak loads larger than 100 kW), and non-half-hourly (“NHH”) metered (smaller than 100 kW) Based on Coincident or Non-Coincident Peak demand Locational charge (calculated using marginal cost classification approach) and residual charge ► While Alberta’s methodologies may seem unique, there is no single template or standard transmission cost causation methodology observed across jurisdictions ► Elements of voltage approach observed across jurisdictions, probably because it is ‘simple and easy to understand’ www.londoneconomics.com ■ 54 Agenda 1 Scope and approach for current study 2 Functionalization of capital costs 3 Functionalization of O&M costs 4 Classification of bulk and regional costs 5 Implementation considerations 6 Appendix Additional reference slides Case studies – review of international jurisdictions Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions www.londoneconomics.com ■ 55 Appendix Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions 2005 Cost Causation Study and Decision 2005-096 2006 Cost Causation Update and Decision 2007-106 2009 O&M Study and Decision 2010-606 2005 Cost Causation Study www.londoneconomics.com ■ 56 In the 2005 study, the system was separated into three functions, allowing each to be studied independently ► ► ► The transmission system wires costs were viewed as providing three functions: bulk delivery of electric energy, regional delivery, and the points of delivery (POD) Bulk system delivers large amounts of electric energy to a large group of customers, while the regional system provides service to a small group of customers, while the point of delivery provides service at one location, generally to one customer The current study will call the local system the “regional” system Functionalization by Voltage Level Three options identified to achieve functionalization By voltage level By economics By MW-kM Functionalization by voltage level Three voltage levels considered ─ Bulk: 500kV and 240kV ─ Regional: 138/144 kV and 69/72 kV ─ Point of delivery (POD): radial lines and POD substations May not provide accurate view in remote areas where facility may be both bulk and regional ─ Each of the approaches takes a different perspective – this is one of the reasons why weighing results from the approaches may make sense ─ Other approaches have a more detailed way of functionalizing these types of projects Source: 2005 Cost Causation Study Summary of Functionalization Results 2005 Cost Causation Study www.londoneconomics.com ■ 57 Functionalization by voltage, economics and MW-km gave similar results, which were averaged By economics ► High voltage lines are more economical and are typically used for longer distances By economics, if 240 kV line (which would be bulk by voltage) length is shorter than 6km, it is actually being used for regional system functions and is functionalized as such Similarly, if a 138 kV line (which would be regional by voltage) is longer than 6 km, it is actually being used for bulk system functions and is functionalized as such All radial lines are POD; 69/72 kV lines are regional Biased to functionalizing towards bulk system, may not reflect function of how system evolved ─ Functionalization By Economics Given the available history of documented need for projects, LEI is in the process of reviewing Need Identification Documents (NIDs), which may be useful to validate recommendations of the current study By MW-km ► Bulk electricity system transports high amount of energy for a long distance, hence MW-km measure. Higher MW-km indicates a line is operating for the bulk system MW loading was forecast during winter peak because all transmission elements are in service 3,000 MW-km chosen to differentiate between bulk and regional All radial lines are POD 69/72 kV lines are regional; 500 kV lines are bulk Can functionalize lines as regional system if lightly loaded in winter, although it could be heavily loaded and bulk system during other periods Functionalization By MW-km Source: 2005 Cost Causation Study 2005 Cost Causation Study www.londoneconomics.com ■ 58 Costs associated with each function were classified as demand, energy or customer related ► Three categories of classification: (i) Customer , (ii) Demand, (iii) Energy ► Minimum System Approach used to differentiate between demand and energy classification for bulk and regional functional groups ► No customer class Approach compares a minimum system to an optimal system Minimum system is based on smallest construction standard, and cost is considered demand related Optimized system, which minimizes total cost of capital and energy losses, is considered energy related Additional cost of upgrading the design to optimize the system is considered energy related because it is the transportation of additional energy that drives this cost Bulk and regional costs are about 80% demand related and 20% energy related Source: 2005 Cost Causation Study Classification of Bulk Transmission Lines by Minimum System Approach Substation and Line Costs Weighted to calculate Final Bulk Classification Summary of Classification Results 2005-096 Decision www.londoneconomics.com ■ 59 2005 Decision noted that conducting the Transmission Cost Causation Study (TCCS) was a unique process ► TCCS considered to be a good first step, though improvements suggested for future studies: A reasonable portion of TFO costs are related to O&M and a material percentage of these may be energy related – need to be researched in further studies TCCS appears to have studied only two of many bulk lines in its analysis; in future studies, AESO will conduct a more thorough review of all those lines comprising the bulk system, in order to provide a more accurate indication as to the exact portion of costs that are energy related ► Wires costs should be classified as 20% energy to be collected evenly over all hours; balance of wires costs should be collected through two demand charges – one related to the bulk system and the second relating to regional system and POD related costs ► Amount of dollars related to the bulk system, and therefore the percentage of costs allocated to bulk system costs, may increase in the future Potential implications for current study ► MW-km method noted as the strongest because it most closely aligns the purpose of transmission facilities to their functional category, however relevant input data for significant planned projects may not be available ► Averaging of the three different approaches provides sufficient balance; LEI will also explore weighting or eliminating one ore more methods ► Board considers NBV to be an appropriate basis upon which to base the functionalization of costs (NBV drives the return, tax and depreciation calculations of the TFO revenue requirements) ► Demand charge for bulk costs should be collected on the basis of coincident peak (12 CP approach); for regional and POD costs, demand costs should be collected on the basis of non-coincident peak (NCP), including the use of a ratchet Source: EUB 2005-096 Decision www.londoneconomics.com ■ 60 Appendix Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions 2005 Cost Causation Study and Decision 2005-096 2006 Cost Causation Update and Decision 2007-106 2009 O&M Study and Decision 2010-606 2006 Capital Cost Update www.londoneconomics.com ■ 61 AESO commissioned the Transmission Cost Causation Update (TCCU) to conduct a more thorough analysis ► TCCU constituted a “more thorough review of all those lines comprising the bulk system,” as directed by the Board in Decision 2005-096 Qualitative analysis included interviewing AESO system planners (regarding transmission paths, upgrades to the bulk transmission system, and causes of maximum stress on bulk transmission lines) Quantitative analysis to assess the correlation between the time of maximum stress on the bulk system and the time of Alberta Internal Load (AIL) peak load ► The qualitative review showed that transmission planning is a complex process; instead of being dominated by any one simple factor such as AIL peak load, it is driven by various independent factors such as the location and daily/seasonal profiles of load and generation and the configuration of the electric transmission system ► Quantitative analysis* showed a correlation of only 1% (in 2004) and 8% (in 2005) between individual bulk line loads (weighted by line length) and AIL Analysis based on metered data for the 8,760 hours and individual bulk line loads over seventy nine 240 kV bulk transmission lines. TCCU acknowledged certain shortcomings: transmission planning is conducted without including opportunity sales; however actual meter data includes actual imports and exports (opportunity sales). The AESO maintained that the total amount of exports was small in comparison to the Alberta load (1.5%) and therefore any adjustment for exports would have only a minimal impact on the circuit loading data. No provision was made for adjustments to the meter data to account for abnormal conditions, such as transmission contingencies or generator outages. As discussed on next slide, the quantitative analysis presented by TCCU was heavily criticized by the interveners and the Board * For purposes of this study the 240 kV circuits were assumed to represent the bulk system. Source: 2006 Transmisison Cost Causation Update 2007-106 Decision www.londoneconomics.com ■ 62 In the 2007 Decision, Board found significant adjustments in rate design may not be necessary in the foreseeable future ► As a result of TCCU, final functionalization and classification results were very slightly revised as compared to Decision 2005-096 ► TCCU presented the hypothesis that peak load did not correlate to maximum stress on the system and that it was load in all hours that mattered Board rejected this hypothesis that there is a weak correlation between circuit load and the system peak; Board considers that system peak is more important than load in every hour ► Unbundled costs (that is, separate rate components for bulk and regional wires) will allow the flexibility to design rates more reflective of cost causation and allow for more appropriate and effective price signals to customers ► AESO proposed to use an Average & Excess (A&E) methodology to classify wires costs In the A&E approach, the average component is determined by the average system load factor, which determines the energy-related classification of transmission costs (estimated at 48.6%); excess component represents the amount of system load above the average (estimated as 1 - 48.6% = 51.4%) The Board rejected this approach; transmission assets represent a long-term fixed investment, and vary very little based on usage; classifying 48.5% of costs as energy-related provides a poor price signal to customers to shift their load away from peak hours to reduce demand at the system peak Potential implications for current study ► Continue to use minimum system approach to classify wires costs (as performed in TCCS and updated in TCCU) ► Bulk and regional wires costs are to continue to be unbundled so that the balance of these costs could be collected through two different demand charges; demand charges related portion of bulk and regional wires costs are to be collected through a 12 CP and NCP respectively ► Board does not consider that significant adjustments should be necessary in the foreseeable future; the Board considers that the portion of wires costs classified as energy related should remain fairly low and be determined by the cost of service study Source: 2007-106 Decision www.londoneconomics.com ■ 63 Appendix Previous cost causation studies and Board decisions 2005 Cost Causation Study and Decision 2005-096 2006 Cost Causation Update and Decision 2007-106 2009 O&M Study and Decision 2010-606 2009 Operating and Maintenance Cost Study www.londoneconomics.com ■ 64 The O&M study functionalized by voltage level only, and classified largely on the same basis as capital costs ► ► Revenue requirement Capital is approximately 70% of revenue requirement Non-capital costs are 30% of revenue requirement ─ Made up of O&M costs (related to in service transmission facilities) and General and Administrative (G&A) ─ O&M is primarily labor related Functionalization by voltage level easy to understand and correlates to electric transmission facilities Bulk Transmission System Defined as the 240 kV and 500 kV transmission facilities, including substations that transform voltage to a lower transmission voltage (i.e. 240/138 kV substation). ► Regional Transmission System Consists of the 138/144 kV and 69/72 kV transmission facilities Studied data from 2008 Functionalized by O&M costs, but applied to all-non capital costs Examples of functionalization Point of Delivery (POD) Includes radial transmission lines and point of delivery substations ─ Lengths of underground lines at each voltage were used to functionalize underground line costs ─ Transformer counts at each voltage were used to functionalize station equipment expenses Classification Fuel is classified as energy related as it is related to energy consumption in off-grid communities served by remote generators Other O&M costs classified on the same basis as capital costs Source: 2009 O&M Cost Study 2010-606 Decision www.londoneconomics.com ■ 65 The Board directed AESO to consider future capital build over the entire next tariff term in its 2010 Decision ► The Commission was generally favourable towards the O&M study, stating the “Commission considers that the Transmission O&M Cost Study results provide useful information which, under normal circumstances, should be reflected in the AESO’s rate design ► The Commission did not incorporate the O&M study into the AESO rate design, given the results would increase regional/POD rates with respect to bulk, whereas the major capital additions during the tariff term would do the opposite ► Interveners raised concerns about study data, including use of just a single year, unavailability of ENMAX data, as well as the lack of detailed accounting data available to the Consultant ► The Commission was satisfied that the study was undertaken ‘in good faith and on a best efforts basis that provided reasonable results’ Despite requests to complete a cost causation study earlier, the Commission agreed the GTA and cost causation should be submitted together to maximize efficiency, no later than March 31, 2013 Potential implications for current study ► The commission agreed with the AESO that isolated generation charges should be functionalized into regional and POD charges; however, the Commission denied classification of those charges as energy, rather preferring the proportions used for all other regional and POD costs ► The commission directed AESO to consider a forecast of capital build for the entire expected effective term of the AESO’s next tariff, using the Long Term Transmission Plan (LTP) as a starting point ► Dual Use Customers (DUC) requested AESO use derived replacement cost new (RCN) values for the next study. Although the commission did not direct the AESO to make this change, it also did not preclude it from doing so ► Interveners noted that there is likely to be a significant increase in the proportion of bulk transmission facilities built for reasons other than providing reliable delivery at times of peak load and, as a result, there is a strong possibility that the classification of bulk transmission facilities will change to a more energy-intensive classification Some other reasons suggested are as follows: (i) facilitating exports and connection of renewable generation, (ii) opening markets for generators and rendering markets more competitive, and (iii) relieving congestion that would otherwise require the operation of generation out of merit order in accordance with government policy Source: AUC 2010-606 Decision