Long Term Adequacy Metrics May 2016 Introduction

Long Term Adequacy Metrics
May 2016
Introduction
The following report provides information on the long term adequacy of the Alberta electric energy
market. The report contains metrics that include tables on generation projects under development and
generation retirements, an annual reserve margin with a five year forecast period, a two year daily supply
cushion, and a two year probabilistic assessment of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES).
The Long Term Adequacy (LTA) Metrics provide an assessment and provide information that can be
used to facilitate further assessments of long term adequacy. This report is updated quarterly in
February, May, August, and November. Inquiries on the report can be made at [email protected].
Note: On December 31, 2015, Shell Canada Limited submitted an update to the AUC, indicating that
construction on the Carmon Creek power plant was being halted and different options in terms of
configuration and ownership of the generation assets were being assessed. For this reason, Shell
Carmon Creek units have been changed to TBD in this report until more information becomes available.
Summary of Changes since Previous Report
New Generation and Retirements Metric
Projects completed and removed from list:

N/A
Generation Projects moved to “Active Construction”:

N/A
Generation projects moved to “Regulatory Approval”:

N/A
Generation projects that have been added to “Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection,
and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval”:

BowArk Energy - Echo Wind (300 MW)

AltaGas - Glenridge Wind (150 MW)

Renewable Energy Services - McLaughlin Phase 2 (40 MW)

Suncor - Schuler Wind (80 MW)

Suncor - Hand Hills Phase 2 (80 MW)

Suncor - Hand Hills Solar (80 MW)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016

Suncor - Forty Mile P/V (80 MW)

Suncor - Forty Mile WAGF (200 MW)

Eolectric - Mud Buttes Wind (100 MW)

Suncor - Schuler P/V (80 MW)

Kineticor - Peace River Power Generator (93 MW)

Suncor - Braconnier Wind (80 MW)

Suncor - Huxley Wind (50 MW)

Turning Point Generation - Canyon Creek PHES (125 MW)

Renewable Energy Systems Canada - Forty Mile Wind (400 MW)
Generation projects that have been removed:

Genalta Power – Bellshill (5 MW)

TERIC – Cavendish (125 MW)
Other changes to generation projects:
Project
Change
Blue Earth Inc. – Brooks JBS
New ISD of Oct-2016 from Mar-2016
Cenovus – Christina Lake 1F
New ISD of May-2016 from Mar-2016
Cargill – Camrose County
New ISD of May-2016 from Apr-2016
CNRL – Horizon
New ISD of Aug-2016 from May-2016
Mustus Energy – Mustus Biomass
New ISD of Apr-2017 from Jan-2017
Pteragen – Peace Butte
New ISD of Mar-2017 from Dec-2016
Alberta Wind Energy – Windy Point
New ISD of Dec-2016 from Feb-2017
BowArk Energy – Queenstown Power Plant
New ISD of Jun-2017 from Mar-2017
AltaGas – Kent
New ISD of Nov-2017 from Jun-2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Suncor – Fort Hills
New ISD of Aug-2017 from Jun-2017
Naturener – Wild Rose 2
New ISD of Dec-2016 from Sep-2017
Naturener – Wild Rose 1
New ISD of July-2017 from Dec-2017
Benign Energy – Heritage Wind 1/2
New ISD of Jun-2019 from May-2019
NEPL – Jenner DG
New ISD of Jul-2017 from Jun-2016
BluEarth Renewables – Burdett Solar
New ISD of Dec-2017 from Dec-2016
BluEarth Renewables – Yellow Lake Solar
New ISD of Dec-2017 from Dec-2016
Joss Wind – Jenner Phase 2
New ISD of Aug-2018 from Dec-2016
BowArk Energy – Drywood Power
New ISD of Jul-2017 from Mar-2017
Enel – Riverview
New ISD of Aug-2017 from Nov-2017
Williams – Strathcona
New ISD of Nov-2017 from Dec-2017
Capital Power – Halkirk 2
New ISD of Feb-2018 from Dec-2017
Mainstream Renewable – Wainwright Wind Project
New ISD of Sep-2018 from Jan-2018
Greengate Power – Paintearth
New ISD of Jun-2018 from Jan-2018
Sharp Hills – Sharp Hills
New ISD of Dec-2017 from Jun-2018
Rocky Mountain Power – ASISt
New ISD of Dec-2020 from Nov-2018
TransAlta – Sundance 7
New ISD of Jan-2020 from Jul-2018
BowArk Energy – Queenstown
New ISD of Jun-2018 from Jun-2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Reserve Margin Metric
The reserve margin has been updated to reflect changes to the project list and an update to the forecast
load.
Supply Cushion Metric
The forecast supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period and an update to the
forecast load.
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served decreasing to 0 MWh from
10 MWh in the previous report. This new value is below the 1,600 MWh threshold.
New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric
The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of
development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 4 below. In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market
competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information
on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta.
The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to
existing generation and the retirement of generating units. Changes in project in-service dates (ISDs)
and regulatory stages occur as projects move forward and/or market conditions change. Current
information on connection project ISDs can be found in the AESO Project List and information on power
plant applications can be found at the Alberta Utilities Commission website.
Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity*
ISD*
Cenovus
Christina Lake 1F
Gas
95
May-2016
Cargill
Camrose County
Gas
11
May-2016
CNRL
Horizon
Gas
85
Aug-2016
Blue Earth Inc.
Brooks JBS
Gas
15
Oct-2016
Mustus Energy
Mustus Biomass
Biomass
41
Apr-2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity*
ISD*
Shell
Carmon Creek Unit 1**
Gas
230
TBD
Shell
Carmon Creek Unit 2**
Gas
230
TBD
Shell
Carmon Creek Unit 3**
Gas
230
TBD
Total (MW)
937
*Unit Capacity – Expected MW capacity; ISD – Estimated in-service date
**Construction is currently on hold
Table 2: Generation Projects with Regulatory Approval
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Imperial Oil
Strathcona
Gas
45
Oct-2016
Naturener
Wild Rose 2
Wind
210
Dec-2016
Alberta Wind Energy
Windy Point
Wind
63
Dec-2016
Pteragen
Peace Butte
Wind
120
Mar-2017
Maxim Power
HR Milner Peaker
Gas
90
Jun-2017
Enbridge
Whitetail Peaking
Gas
200
Jul-2017
Naturener
Wild Rose 1
Wind
210
Jul-2017
Suncor
Fort Hills
Gas
170
Aug-2017
AltaGas
Kent
Gas
100
Nov-2017
Maxim Power
Deerland Peaking 1
Gas
186
Dec-2017
Eolectric
Welsch Wind
Wind
69
Dec-2017
BowArk Energy
Queenstown Power Plant
Gas
80
Jun-2018
ATCO Power
Heartland Power Station 1
Gas
510
Nov-2018
BluEarth Renewables
Hand Hills Wind Farm
Wind
80
Dec-2018
Suncor
Hand Hills
Wind
80
Dec-2018
Sponsor(s)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind 1
Wind
100
Jun-2019
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind 2
Wind
250
Jun-2019
Capital Power
Genesee 4
Gas
525
Aug-2019
Maxim Power
Milner 2 Phase 1
Gas
260
Nov-2019
Maxim Power
Milner 2 Phase 2
Gas
260
Jan-2020
TransAlta
Sundance 7
Gas
850
Jun-2018
ENMAX
Bonnybrook
Gas
168
Jun-2020
Capital Power
Genesee 5
Gas
525
Oct-2020
TransCanada
Saddlebrook
Gas
350
Jun-2021
GTE Power
Brooks Power
Solar
15
TBD
Syncrude
Mildred Lake
Gas
85
TBD
MEG
Christina Lake 3A
Gas
85
TBD
Nexen
Long Lake South
Gas
85
TBD
Brion Energy
MacKay
Gas
85
TBD
Sponsor(s)
Total (MW)
5,811
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Signalta Resources
Heisler
Gas
8
Jun-2016 (P)
MEG
Christina Lake 2B4X
Gas
85
May-2017 (A)
McLaughlin Phase 2
Wind
40
May-2017 (A)
McLaughlin
Wind
47
Jul-2017 (A)
Jenner DG
Gas
6.2
Jul-2017 (A)
Sponsor(s)
Renewable Energy
Services
Renewable Energy
Services
NEPL
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
BowArk Energy
Drywood Power
Gas
18.6
Jul-2017 (A)
Enel
Riverview
Wind
115
Aug-2017 (P)
Joss Wind
Jenner Wind
Wind
120
Aug-2017 (A)
TransAlta
Energy Storage
ES
10
Oct-2017 (A)
Kineticor
Peace River Power Generator
Gas
93
Nov-2017 (A)
BluEarth Renewables
Burdett Solar
Solar
20
Dec-2017 (A)
BluEarth Renewables
Yellow Lake Solar
Solar
19
Dec-2017 (A)
Williams
Strathcona
Gas
90
Nov-2017 (A)
E.ON
Grizzly Bear
Wind
120
Dec-2017 (P)
Sharp Hills
Sharp Hills
Wind
300
Dec-2017 (A)
Greengate Power
Stirling Wind
Wind
150
Jan-2018 (A)
Capital Power
Halkirk 2
Wind
150
Feb-2018 (A)
ENMAX
Calgary Energy Centre Peaking
Gas
150
Apr-2018 (P)
Alberta Wind Energy
Old Elm & Pothole Creek
Wind
300
May-2018 (A)
AltaGas
Glenridge Wind
Wind
150
Jun-2018 (A)
Eolectric
Mud Buttes Wind
Wind
100
Jun-2018 (A)
Greengate Power
Wheatland Wind
Wind
150
Jun-2018 (A)
Greengate Power
Paintearth
Wind
150
Jun-2018 (A)
Joss Wind
Jenner Phase 2
Wind
180
Aug-2018 (A)
Mainstream Renewable
Renewable Energy
Systems Canada
Wainwright Wind Project
Wind
90
Sep-2018 (A)
Forty Mile Wind
Wind
400
Jun-2019 (A)
Joss Wind
Turning Point
Generation
Northern Lights
Wind
400
Sep-2019 (A)
Canyon Creek PHES
Other
125
Sep-2019 (A)
Suncor
Schuler Wind
Wind
80
Oct-2019 (A)
Suncor
Hand Hills Phase 2
Wind
80
Oct-2019 (A)
Sponsor(s)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Suncor
Hand Hills Solar
Solar
80
Oct-2019 (A)
Suncor
Forty Mile P/V
Solar
80
Oct-2019 (A)
Suncor
Forty Mile WAGF
Wind
200
Oct-2019 (A)
Suncor
Schuler P/V
Solar
80
Oct-2019 (A)
Suncor
Braconnier Wind
Wind
80
Oct-2019 (A)
Suncor
Huxley Wind
Wind
50
Oct-2019 (A)
BowArk Energy
Echo Wind
Wind
300
Dec-2019 (A)
Imperial Oil
Aspen
Cogen
30
Jan-2020 (A)
ATCO
Heartland Power Station 2
Gas
510
Apr-2020 (A)
Rocky Mountain Power
ASISt
ES
160
Dec-2020 (A)
AHP Development
Amisk Hydroelectric Project
Hydro
330
2023 (C)
Cenovus
Narrows Lake
Gas
50
TBD
Sponsor(s)
Total (MW)
5,697
* - (P):Power Plant application filed with AUC, (A): AESO application in process, (C): Corporate announcement
Table 4: Generation Projects that have Announced to be Retired
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit Capacity
Retire Date
Status
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total (MW)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Federal Coal Compliance Schedule
In 2012, the federal government approved the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired
Generation of Electricity Regulations. The regulation requires that coal-fired generation units meet a GHG
emissions intensity target once it reaches end of life. The AESO has adopted the federal compliance
dates as retirement dates to evaluate metrics included in this report. The decision to retire a coal unit
could also be impacted by several potential drivers, including the economics of plant operations,
contractual agreements, and provincial and federal legislation.
The recent Climate Leadership Plan announced by the Alberta provincial government has not impacted
assumptions on retirements in this report. Announcements from the government will continue to be
assessed as they are released.
Table 5: Federal Coal Compliance Schedule
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit Capacity
In Service
Date
Federal Compliance
1
Date
ATCO
Battle River 3
Coal
149
1969
Dec-2019
TransAlta
Sundance 1
Coal
288
1970
Dec-2019
TransAlta
Sundance 2
Coal
288
1973
Dec-2019
Maxim
HR Milner
Coal
144
1972
Dec-2019
Total (MW)
1
869
Federal Compliance Dates are based upon the applicable provisions of the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations, as
set forth in the Canada Gazette Vol. 146, No.19.
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Reserve Margin Metric
The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand
in Alberta. It is a calculation of the firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of
the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak. Information on the
annual peak demand within the reserve margin can be found on the AESO’s Forecasting web page. Firm
generation is defined as installed and future generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity
and behind-the-fence demand and generation, and excludes wind capacity. Three forecast reserve
margins are presented, each with different future supply additions. The supply additions correspond to the
stage of the generation projects in the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric. The metric is
graphed with and without intertie capacity in one reserve margin since full import capability may not
always be available at the time of system peak demand.
Capacity from Sundance 1 and 2 has been excluded from the 2011 and 2012 reserve margin. They
returned to service in late 2013 and are included in the current forecast reserve margin values.
Figure 1: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Reserve Margin, 2004 - 2020
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Supply Cushion Metric
The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to
meet peak demand on a daily basis. The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm
supply minus daily peak demand. Only existing generation and generation under construction are used
within the metric. The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak
rather than annual and incorporates planned outages. Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply
cushion for the next two years. Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well
as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow) which are not included in the supply cushion
calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply. When the supply cushion is negative
in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated
in Figure 3.
Figure 2: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Supply Cushion,
May 1, 2016 to April 30, 2018
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Figure 3: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Peak Demand and Available Supply,
May 1, 2016 to April 30, 2018
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – May 2016
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of
encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by
incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into
the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load
may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders,
when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW
shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply
adequacy gap while maintaining investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in
Table 6 does not reach the threshold.
Table 6: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall, May 1, 2016 to April 30, 2018
Worst Shortfall Hour (MW)
# of Hours in Shortfall
Total Energy Not Served (MWh)
0
0
0
Note: Values are rounded and represent average outputs