Power Markets People Quick Hits Review and Metrics

Reliable Power
Quick Hits Review and Metrics
Gordon Nadeau, Market Design Specialist,
Market Services
Mar 7, 2008
Reliable Markets
Reliable People
Today’s Objective
• QH Overview
• Metrics Discussion
• Next Steps
2
Quick Hits Overview
• DOE Policy Paper issued in 2005 ; extensive industry consultation
identified “Quick Hits” package of market design improvements.
• Quick hits rules changes implemented on Dec 3, 2007.
• AESO agreed to reporting on the market after six months of operating
under the Quick Hits rules.
• AESO will be releasing a discussion paper outlining the proposed
package of Quick Hits metrics that it intends to develop to monitor the
market. Some metrics will contain confidential data which will not be
published.
• AESO is seeking industry input on the proposed metrics package as well
as any potential AESO rule changes or improvements related to Quick
Hits.
3
Quick Hits Metrics Discussion
• Quick Hits Objectives:
– Improved visibility of available supply
– Improvements in pool price credibility, stability, and undue volatility
• Quick Hits Implementation Areas:
– Merit Order Stabilizers- MC, AC, Restatements, AOR
– Treatment of Imports and Exports
– TMR and DDS
– Payments to Suppliers on the Margin
– Adequacy and Price Forecasting
• Quick Hits Metrics will focus on each implementation area
4
Merit Order Stabilizers
• Supply Visibility
– by asset, by fuel type and in total; day ahead and real time
• Maximum Capability- track changes
• Available Capability- pre and post QH; trends
• Mandatory Energy Restatements- pre and post QH; trends; within T-2
• Acceptable Operating Reasons- pre and post QH; trends
• Pool Price Analysis
• Price Restatements- pre and post QH; trends
• Energy Market Merit Order- pre and post QH; trends
• Merit Order Dispatch- SMP changes pre and post QH; trends
5
D a te
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
29
26
23
20
17
14
11
08
05
02
30
27
24
21
18
15
12
Quantity in EMMO (MW)
-1
-1
020
07
0 7 0 -2
-1 0 0
0
7
1 0 -2
0
-1
07
1 3 0 -2
-1 0 0
0
7
1 6 -2
-1 0 0
7
1 9 0 -2
-1 0 0
0
7
2 2 -2
0
-1
07
2 5 0 -2
-1 0 0
0
7
2 8 -2
-1 0 0
7
3 1 0 -2
-1 0 0
0
7
0 3 -2
-1 0 0
7
0 5 1 -2
-1 0 0
1
7
0 8 -2
-1 0 0
7
1 1 1 -2
-1 0 0
1
7
1 4 -2
-1 0 0
7
1 7 1 -2
0
-1
1 07
2 0 -2
-1 0 0
7
2 3 1 -2
-1 0 0
1
7
2 6 -2
-1 0 0
7
2 9 1 -2
0
-1
1 07
0 2 -2
-1 0 0
2- 7
20
07
04
01
Quantity in EMMO (MW)
Supply Visibility- Daily
Total Energy Market Merit Order (EMMO) Supply
T o p O f E M M O - N e t o f In t e r t ie s
P r e - Q u ic k H its (N o v 1 , 2 0 0 7 t o D e c 2 , 2 0 0 7 )
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
D a te
T o p O f E M M O - N e t o f In te r tie s
P o s t-Q u ic k H its (J a n 1 2 , 2 0 0 8 to F e b 2 9 , 2 0 0 8 )
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
6
Supply Visibility- Monthly
Total Energy Market Merit Order (EMMO) Supply
Average Total Offers in EMMO (No Imports/Exports)
Std Dev
8400
700
8200
600
8000
500
7800
400
7600
300
7400
200
7200
100
7000
Std Dev (MW)
Total Volume in EMMO (MW)
Total EMMO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007
9
10
11
12
1
2
2008
Year-Month
7
Supply Visibility- Hourly
Total Energy Market Merit Order (EMMO) Supply
Average Supply in EMMO Pre and Post Quick Hits
(Jan 2007 to March 2008)
Post Quick Hits
Pre Quick Hits
8800
Average Capacity in EMMO
8600
8400
8200
8000
7800
7600
7400
7200
7000
6800
6600
1
2
3 4
5
6
7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
HE
8
12-31-2007
12-29-2007
12-27-2007
12-25-2007
12-23-2007
12-21-2007
12-19-2007
12-17-2007
12-15-2007
12-13-2007
12-11-2007
12-09-2007
12-07-2007
12-05-2007
12-03-2007
12-01-2007
11-29-2007
11-27-2007
11-25-2007
11-23-2007
250
11-21-2007
11-19-2007
11-17-2007
11-15-2007
Count of Energy Restatements
Supply Visibility- Daily Changes
Total Mandatory Energy Restatements within T-2
Daily Count of Energy Restatements Within T-2
300
Restatement Count
Pool Price
200
150
100
50
0
Date
9
Pool Price AnalysisEnergy Market Merit Order
EMMO net of Imports and Exports
1200
Feb 7/2008 HE16
1000
Feb 8/2007 HE16
Price ($/MW)
800
600
400
200
0
5900
6200
6500
6800
7100
7400
7700
8000
8300
8600
8900
Quantity of Offers (MW)
10
Pool Price AnalysisMerit Order Dispatch
Monthly Average of Daily SMP Changes
Count of SMP Changes
Total SMP Changes
Off Peak SMP Changes
On Peak SMP Changes
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
2006
4
5
6
7
2007
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
2008
Year-Month
11
Treatment of Imports and Exports
• AC and ATC trends:
• Pre and post Quick Hits
• T-2 data and in real time
• Occurrences where ATC limits supply and magnitude of impact
12
Imports and Exports
BC ATC and Flows - Nov 1, 2007 to Feb 29, 2008
ATC Capacity and BC Flows (MW)
1000
Scheduled Flows
Import ATC
1000
Export ATC
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
01-112007
-800
07-112007
13-112007
19-112007
25-112007
02-122007
08-122007
14-122007
20-122007
27-122007
02-012008
08-012008
14-012008
21-012008
27-012008
02-022008
08-022008
15-022008
21-022008
27-022008
13
TMR and DDS
• TMR, DDS Supply and Dispatched DDS
• Trends over time
• Reference price impacts
• DDS Costs
• Trends over time
• Comparisons to pool price
• DDS Impact on Pool Price
• Trends over time
• Comparisons to overall pool price and total dollar impact
14
Dispatched DDS (MWh), Total DDS Offers (MW), Total TMR (MWh)
Dispatch Down Service
Daily Activity
Dispatched DDS and DDS Supply
(December 2007 and January 2008)
800
Total Dispatched DDS
700
Total DDS Offered
Total TMR
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
04-12-07
11-12-07
18-12-07
25-12-07
01-01-08
08-01-08
15-01-08
22-01-08
29-01-08
15
Dispatch Down Service
Monthly Activity
DDS Offers, DDS Dispatched, TMR Dispatched
Volume of DDS, TMR (MWh)
Sum of DDS Supply
Sum of DDS Dispatched
Sum of Total TMR
80000
80000
70000
70000
60000
60000
50000
50000
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
0
0
04-12-07 09-12-07 16-12-07 23-12-07 30-12-07 06-01-08 13-01-08 20-01-08 27-01-08
16
Dispatch Down Service
Daily Costs
Daily Average DDS Cost/MWh
300
2
Average DDS Cost ($/MWh)
Daily Avg Pool Price
1.6
1.4
250
200
1.2
1
150
0.8
100
0.6
0.4
50
Daily Average Pool Price ($/MWh)
Daily Avg Cost
1.8
0.2
0
04-12-07
0
18-12-07
01-01-08
15-01-08
29-01-08
Date
17
Other Implementation Areas
• Payments to Suppliers on the Margin
• Monthly payment history- Total $, $/MWh, MW’s, Frequency
• Comparison to pool price- $/MWh uplift
• Payment by fuel type and customer
• Payment by time of day
• Adequacy and Price Forecasting
• Adequacy comparison:
• Actual to Two hour supply forecast- demand/supply deviations
• Two hour supply forecast trends over time- accuracy improvements
• Price comparison:
• Actual to Two hour supply forecast- accuracy improvements
• Two hour forecast trends over time- stability indicators
18
Next Steps
• A discussion paper outlining the proposed package of Quick Hits metrics
will be issued and industry recommendations for improvement will be
sought.
• The paper will request written comments be provided to Gordon Nadeau
by a specific date
• Input can be provided to market services at any time during the review
period
• Industry input will be incorporated into the final metrics package as
appropriate.
• The AESO will monitor the market utilizing the metrics on an ongoing
basis and seek industry input on potential AESO rule improvements
related to Quick Hits.
19
Next Steps
• A report on the market covering the December 2007 to June 2008 period
will be prepared in Q3 and will focus on the Quick Hits rule impacts.
• If appropriate, the AESO will make recommendations for rule changes
based on the market analysis and stakeholder feedback.
20