A Technical Analysis of Transient Lodging Demand Along

A Technical Analysis of Transient Lodging Demand Along
The Grand Strand: The Moving Average Rate of Change
A Presentation to the
Hospitality Sales and Marketing Association International
South Carolina Chapter
Myrtle Beach, December 16, 2015
L. Taylor Damonte, Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
Horry County Transient Lodging Inventory
Hotels/Condo-hotels
Timeshare Units
Campsites
37,021
3,261
4,554
41,467
5,982
6,831
39,402
5,971
5,125
53,165
11,085
7,688
6%
83%
13%
28%
85%
13%
Vacation Rental Properties2
Total
4,182
49,018
20,074
74,354
5,305
55,803
21,751
93,688
27%
14%
8%
26%
1
-- Bedroom equivalents are defined as spaces capable of sleeping 2 to 4.
2
-- Vacation rental properties includes both single-family and multi-family units. This number
changes throughout the year. It is estimated by counting the units advertised on the Internet and
through informal surveys of realtors.
3
-- Assumes 1 campsite equals 1.5 bedroom equivalent sleeping spaces.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
Horry County Transient Lodging Study
Hotels, condo-hotels and campsites (HC-HCs), nightly
rentals…
Performance estimated using self-reported performance data
from a voluntary sample of participating properties. Average
weekly number of units (n) = 9,440 (13,058 bedroom
equivalents). The units are 32 percent hotels (25 percent of
bedroom equivalents), 60 percent condo-hotels (65 percent of
bedroom equivalents), 8 percent campsites (9 percent of
bedroom equivalents).
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
Horry County Transient Lodging Study
Vacation rental properties (VRPs) includes homes and
condominiums, weekly rentals.
Performance estimated using a scientifically random
observation sample of 10 percent of all VRP properties for
which property status and pricing data in made available on
the Internet. Average weekly number of units (n) = 217 units
(864 bedroom equivalents). The units are 69 percent rental
homes, accounting for 82 percent of the bedrooms in the VRP
sample.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
Weekly Performance Metrics
The researchers track weekly performance and the 52week moving average rate of change in three similar
metrics for each segment:
• For HC-HCs – average percent occupancy, average
daily rate and revenue per available room.
• For VRPs – average percent occupancy by
reservations, average advertised rental price and
average revenue per available bedroom.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
52-Week Moving Average Change in Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsite Average Occupancy
and 52-Week Moving Average Change in Average Percent of Vacation Rental Property Bedrooms Reserved
in the Myrtle Beach Area May 4, 2008 - Dec. 12, 2015
18%
16%
September
2010
14%
12%
May
2015
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Vacation Rental Property
-4%
Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsites
-6%
VRP Long-Term Average
-8%
-10%
April
2009
Rental Week
•
HC-HC Long-Term Average
April
2014
The moving 52-week rate of change in occupancy for nightly and weekly rentals is
now below the long-term rate of change by 2 and 12 percent, respectively.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
52-Week Average Change in Average Daily Rates in Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsites
and 52-Week Moving Average Change in Average Advertised Weekly Price per Bedroom in Vacation Rental
Properties in the Myrtle Beach Area of South Carolina May 4, 2008 - Dec. 12, 2015
12%
March
2013
10%
August
2011
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
February
2014
-2%
-4%
Vacation Rental Property 52-Week Advertised Price Change
-6%
Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsite 52-Week ADR Change
-8%
December
2009
-10%
-12%
Rental Week
VRP Long-Term Average
HC-HC Long-Term Average
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
52-Week Average Change in Vacation Rental Property
Average Percent Occupied and Advertised Average Weekly Price per Bedroom
in the Myrtle Beach Area of South Carolina May 4, 2008 - Dec. 12, 2015
17%
15%
October
2010
13%
11%
April
2015
9%
7%
5%
3%
1%
-1%
APO Rate of Change
-3%
ADR Rate of Change
-5%
-7%
-9%
-11%
December
2009
ADR Long Term Rate of Change
APO Long Term Rate of Change
March
2014
Rental Week
• Rate of change in APO and AWR diverging currently for VRPs.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
52-Week Moving Average Change in Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsite Average Occupancy
and 52-Week Moving Average Change in Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsite Average Daily Rate
in the Myrtle Beach Area May 4, 2008 - Dec. 12, 2015
10%
8%
August
2011
6%
June
2014
4%
2%
0%
-2%
April
2013
-4%
-6%
January
2009
January
2010
-8%
-10%
Average Daily Rate
Average Percent Occupied
ADR Long-Term Average
APO Long-Term Average
Rental Week
•
Rate of change in APO and AWR diverging currently for HC-HCs also.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
52-Week Moving Average Change in Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsite Average RevPAR
and 52-Week Moving Average Change in Vacation Rental Property RevPAB
in the Myrtle Beach Area of South Carolina May 4, 2008 - Dec. 12, 2015
16%
July
2010
14%
January
2010
12%
April
2015
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
April
2014
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
-16%
Rental Week
August
2009
Vacation Rental Property Estimated RevPAB Change
Hotel, Condo-Hotel and Campsite RevPAR Change
VRP Long-Term Average
HC-HC Long-Term Average
-18%
•
The 52-week rate of change in RevPAR for HC-HCs is 5 points above its long-term rate of change.
• The rate of change in RevPAB for VRPs is 14 points below its long-term rate of change.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
Factors Impacting Area Average
Occupancy Percentage
1. A change in the relative level of demand for
the Myrtle Beach area versus competing
destinations.
2. A change in the amount of inventory of any
type of daily or weekly transient lodging in
the destination, including vacation
ownership.
Damonte, L.T.
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
Factors Impacting Lodging Demand
•
Change in demand for the area’s natural and built attractions relative to
demand for competing destinations. These can be impacted by weather and
other environmental factors within the destination and within competing
destinations, i.e., hurricanes, oil spills, etc.
•
Change in the prices of all tourist services (attractions and food) at the
destination versus that of competing destinations.
•
Change in the price (money and time) to travel to the area versus competing
destinations, i.e., fuel prices, airfares, road/airport conditions.
•
Change in the level and quality of advertising and publicity about the
destination and about competing destinations, both paid and unsolicited.
•
Change in personal income.
•
Change in the level of personal savings.
•
Change in consumer and business confidence.
Damonte - Loftus
L.T.
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of BusinessDamonte,
Administration
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism
Questions or other thoughts? Send
them to …
L. Taylor Damonte
[email protected]
www.coastal.edu/business/resort
or follow Taylor Damonte on Twitter @TES_CCU
Damonte - Loftus
L.T.
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of BusinessDamonte,
Administration
Brittain Center for Resort Tourism