Emerging Regional Challenges Dr. Sameh Aboul Enein

Emerging Regional Challenges
Dr. Sameh Aboul Enein
The Howard H. Baker Jr. Centre for Public Policy
Global Security Program
THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE
United States – 28 March 2016
https://elizabethgarrett55.wordpress.com/2016/03/29/egyptian-ambassador-discussescyber-security-gender-equality-in-middle-east/
I.
Introduction
Let me begin by extending my thanks and deep appreciation for inviting me to speak
in my personal and academic capacities. This presentation will focus on
understanding the contemporary regional dynamics, exploring the security and socioeconomic challenges in the Middle East region, and highlighting the potential
cooperation venues among countries in the ME and the United Nations to combat the
challenges in the region.
The political transition in the region has undoubtedly changed fundamental dynamics
in the Middle East, with significant implications for the political and security settings
of the region. Public opinion increasingly plays a more prominent role in Arab
societies and, in this respect, will have a fundamental role in the formulation of
disarmament and security policies.
As recently witnessed, the public use of media social networks, as a mean to share
their opinions and criticisms is a sign of the desire for deeper engagement in the
policymaking and security concerns in the Middle East.
II.
Regional Security Challenges
1. Cyber Security Challenge
First, I would like to introduce Cyber challenges as one of the most currently pressing
challenges in the Middle East.
The political transition in the region has undoubtedly changed fundamental dynamics
in the Middle East, with significant implications for role of information technology,
as an integral part of the future of security architecture in the Middle East.
Public opinion increasingly plays a more prominent role in Arab societies and
communications technologies provide a notable platform to transfer this public
opinion to the decision-making institutions faster and more representatively.
Therefore, many States in the region give high consideration for developing its cyber
infrastructure and exert all possible efforts to update its cyber security techniques and
capabilities.
Cyber Security could be considered as an emerging challenge that interlinks with
other political challenges in the region, such as the critical socio-economic challenges,
the regional and cross national terrorism, the proliferation of conventional weapons
and small arms and light weapons, and education, awareness and capacity-building
Cyberspace is particularly difficult to secure due to:
! The ability of malicious actors to operate from anywhere in the world,
! The linkages between cyberspace and physical systems
! The difficulty of reducing vulnerabilities and consequences in complex cyber
networks.
In addition, cyber security is crucial for maintaining nuclear security, which will be a
central issue that will be reemphasized in the nuclear summit this week in
Washington. This was also the case in the 2014 summit in The Hague, which
recognized the growing importance of information security, including information
held on computer systems, related to nuclear material and technology. In the Middle
East we have witnessed increasing cooperation between government, industry and
academia.
It is important to highlight that the legislative framework to reinforce the cyber
security regimes on the national level is still under development in the different states
of the region, specially in a challenging security environment, where many non-state
actors are conducting terrorist attacks through cyber-warfare techniques.
It is important to highlight that cyber warfare has several forms, and there are multiple
techniques and mechanisms on how cyber attacks may affect civilian devices,
services and applications. Therefore, cyber security cooperation remains a part and
parcel of any regional or international security arrangements, and events like this
Summit could be a step toward the enhancement of such cooperation.
2. Regional and cross-regional terrorism
Another major challenge that faces the whole region is terrorism, which requires
concerted international efforts to combat the phenomena of terrorism and condemn all
its forms, starting with extremism to the incitement of violence. Thus, there is a need
to develop an international mechanism in fighting terrorism.
Within this Dialogue, countries pronounce the need for closer cooperation in this
field, taking into consideration the international character of such networks. It is
believed that close cooperation is the only way for the countries of the region to
identify, define and resolve the security problems of the region
There are huge efforts by state actors, non-state actors, regional, and international
organizations to counter the phenomenon of terrorism in the Middle East.
There are eighteen universal instruments against international terrorism that have
been elaborated within the framework of the United Nations system relating to
specific terrorist activities. Several Middle Eastern governments and regional
organizations have become seriously involved in this effort. Similarly, UN Member
States, through the General Assembly, have been increasingly coordinating their
counter-terrorism efforts and continuing their legal norm-setting work in many
instances in connection to relevant developments in the Arab region.
With recent developments in crisis areas in the region, the Security Council has
become active in countering terrorism through several resolutions and by establishing
several subsidiary bodies.
I would like to specifically point out in this regard to the valuable work of the
Security Council Counter Terrorism Committee, which works to bolster the ability of
UN Member States to prevent terrorist acts both within their borders and across
regions through:
! Monitoring progress, as well as to evaluate the nature and level of technical
assistance a given country may need; and providing a comprehensive snapshot
of the counter-terrorism situation in each country and serve as a tool for
dialogue between the Committee and Member States;
! Encouraging countries to apply known best practices, codes and standards,
taking into account their own circumstances and needs; and developing closer
ties with relevant international, regional and sub regional organizations.
3. The proliferation of conventional weapons and small arms and light
weapons
The worldwide proliferation of SALW has exacerbated many civil conflicts in recent
years, prolonging such conflicts and thus contributing to more human insecurity and
suffering on a vast scale. The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW)
is affecting security and stability in the region. The spread of these weapons both can
have destabilizing effects on social, societal and economic development and can
represent major challenges to regional and national security.
The Middle East’s social, political, and military instability have turned the region into
an ideal venue for illicit movements of arms and weapons.
The Middle East after the “Arab Spring” has clearly shown that a lot of weapons were
employed. Consequently, there are serious efforts by regional governments in
collaboration with international and regional organizations to put an end to arms
smuggling and possible proliferation across borders. National and regional
legislations and regulations are being developed on that line in connection with the
Interpol and relevant UN organizations.
The main challenge that still remains is mainly how to control these weapons so they
don’t end up in the hands of non-state actors such as arms smugglers, drug traffickers,
and terrorists.
In this regard, the Arab States continue to work diligently within the framework of the
UN Small Arms and Light Weapons Program of Action to prevent, eradicate, and
combat this major threat to international and regional peace, stability and security.
4. A zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other WMDs in the Middle East
One of the main challenges that remain to occupy the attention of policy makers in the
Middle East within international organizations, UN bodies, as well as the nonproliferation treaty review conferences, is the central issue of establishing a zone free
of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. The road to this
process has faced and still faces obstacles despite partial progresses in similar cases in
other parts of the world, mainly as in the Pelindaba African free zone treaty, as well
as nuclear free zones in Latin America. Moreover, the international community has
witnessed successful nuclear role back nuclear cases as in South Africa.
Addressing the scientific and technical dimension of the WMDFZ proposal –
including institutional and legal issues – can help breaking the current stalemate in the
diplomatic negotiations and make substantial progress toward the end-goal of a
Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery means.
To facilitate the process, all relevant international nonproliferation treaties and
organizations, such as IAEA, CTBTO, NPT, UNODA, OPCW and BWC
Implementation Unit should be called upon to begin a collective awareness and
outreach program for the relevant cadres from the region. Again, this program should
aim at addressing the main technical, institutional and legal issues related to the
establishment of the free zone.
The IAEA is bound to play a key role as the body responsible for effectively verifying
that no nuclear materials are diverted into illegal weapons programs and that all
parties have irreversibly dismantled and destroyed all nuclear devices manufactured
prior to the entry into force of the free-zone treaty, as would be true in the Israeli case.
What steps can be done to establish a Middle East Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone? Key
questions remain:
! Which institution will be entrusted with the responsibility of the zone?
! What are the implications of non-compliance?
! How can security guarantees be given to reinforce the process of the zone’s
establishment?
! What role will the peaceful use of nuclear energy, as well as nuclear safety
and security, play in future zone discussions?
Along with the need to address these questions, any substantive progress on the zone
process will also need to encompass – building on previous zones and experiences the following technical provisions
! Dismantling and destroying existing or remaining nuclear weapons
capabilities, facilities, and devices under international verification
mechanisms;
! Renouncing nuclear weapons through refraining from conducting indigenous
development and activities related to nuclear weapons, and prohibiting the
transit or stationing of any nuclear explosive devices in the zone;
! Placing all nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA safeguards using
nuclear materials and facilities for peaceful purposes only;
! Addressing the issue of verification, including identifying the role of the
IAEA and other relevant organizations such as the OPCW and CTBTO.
5. Critical socio-economic challenges
Along with the security and political challenges indicated so far, several Middle
Eastern states face significant social problems due to the economic deficiencies
coupled with rising unemployment rates.
Countries reliant on energy exports continue to search for paths to diversification,
while energy-poor countries face the need to grow domestic markets and boost
exports.
More efforts and demand-driven programs should be invested to help local
governments create suitable environment for sustainable developing socio-economic
conditions across their communities.
There should be a tailored approach to frame the practical cooperation of Middle
Eastern States and their allies in a more prospective and focused way, enabling
interested countries to outline the main short and long term objectives for their
economy.
Reducing high unemployment rates, particularly among young people, remains a
challenge across the region. The global youth unemployment rate has stabilized at 13
per cent following a period of rapid increase between 2007 and 2010. The Middle
East continues to show by far the highest youth unemployment rates – averaging 30
per cent in 2014.
Countries in the region are increasing their involvement with the United Nations.
Several programs and bodies are helping to try and face the existing and emerging
socio-economic challenges. The UNDP helps countries across the Middle East to
build and share their own solutions to development challenges within UNDP’s Three
main focus areas: Sustainable development, Peace building, and disaster resilience.
UNCTAD also examines global economic trends and the outlook for ME countries;
undertakes studies on development strategies; analyzes debt issues; provides countries
with technical assistance on the management of public debt; and provides assistance
to the Palestinian people in support of their economic development.
6. Women Empowerment and the Challenge of Achieving Gender Equality
In the same vein, and amid the current multiple crisis environment, gender statistics
reveal that women in the Middle East region are on average more disadvantaged
economically, politically, and socially than are women in other regions, and certainly
more so than in regions with similar income levels or at similar stages of economic
development (e.g., Latin America, Southeast Asia, East Asia). Women also are underrepresented in governance and decision-making positions, according to reports by
UNWOMEN
The situation for women in the Middle East was the driving force that led several
international efforts to building capacity for research and analysis of gender issues.
The World Bank initiative “Sustainable Advancement of Gender Equality and
Empowerment in the Middle East and North Africa (SAGE), aimed to broaden
expertise and to encourage capacity building in the region. To carry out the initiative,
the World Bank drew on the expertise of some of the most recognized regional nongovernmental organizations for gender issues in the Arab world, to work across all
stakeholders, themes, and organizations. SAGE built up considerable sustainable
capacity within the ME region to produce high quality gender analysis and research
that helped better incorporate the gender dimension in policy formulation and
implementation.
The ILO Regional Office of the Arab World supports governments, workers,
employers and civil society to develop social and economic policies that promote
gender equality and equal opportunities in the workplace. Technical assistance by the
ILO, in cooperation with regional partners, is provided in a number of areas
throughout the region and is aimed at:
! Increasing women’s participation and role in workers’ unions and employers’
organizations;
! Supporting newly established national committees for women and transferring
entrepreneurship development skills;
! Assisting technical vocational education and training institutions to better
address gender inequalities;
! Promoting research and capacity building on issues related to pay equity,
maternity protection, as well as child care solutions and gender-based violence
in the workplace.
7. The Influx of Refugees
Finally, I must share with you the current unfolding migration and refugee crisis,
which cuts across all the previous socio-economic security challenges. As conflicts in
the Middle East continue, migration and refugee movements in the Mediterranean
countries have gained unprecedented momentum in recent months. The situation
along migratory routes to Europe and within Europe itself is changing faster than ever
before.
The Middle East is currently witnessing a serious humanitarian displacement, with
vast numbers of existing refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) requiring
direct humanitarian support. According to Eurostat, the Directorate-General of the
European commission in Luxembourg, EU member states received over 1.2 million
asylum applications in 2015, more than double the number in 2014. Middle Eastern
counties still carry the biggest burden from the crisis; Turkey has over 2.7 million
registered Syrian Refugees, 1.5 million in Lebanon, 1.4 million in Jordan, and over
120,000 in Egypt.
The current influx of refugees is the worst the world has ever witnessed. The
UNHCR's financial requirements for the Middle East have increased dramatically in
recent years, from USD 506.4 million in 2011 to a revised 2014 budget of USD 1.6
billion, as a result of needs arising from the crisis in Syria. In 2015, these financial
requirements have increased again to USD 1.7 billion due to growing needs chiefly
stemming from recent regional developments.
Although there is some experience within the formal humanitarian system of helping
refugees gain access to public services and promoting their self-sufficiency, there is
no consolidated body of knowledge or operational approach yet to this evolving
socio-economic as well as security challenge. UN agencies are still struggling to reach
these refugees and profile their needs to address the humanitarian, legal, and
economic scopes of this unprecedented situation.
III.
Concluding Remarks
To conclude, having presented several challenges that the Middle East region is
undergoing currently, what is really required is a substantial effort to identify possible
elements necessary to draw a strategy that incorporates proper foresight planning to
address them. The following can be some of the elements that might be useful in this
respect:
a). Think Tanks
Regional think tanks need to be better equipped, to provide and stimulate considered
critical contribution and analysis on the challenges and opportunities present in
developing a security zonal framework. A key role for this community would be to
draw out the appropriate lessons and suggest road maps.
b). Capacity Building
Several layers of technical expertise will be required both to write and establish a
technically watertight regional international security mechanism, and to run, manage,
maintain and protect it once it is in place. This will require knowledge and an
understanding of where joint ventures might be possible, and what technologies might
be associated with them.
c). Technical Analysis:
There is a need to address technical analysis of existing cooperation treaties – their
terms of reference and definitions; cooperation mechanisms, compliance, enforcement
and monitoring methods; and their mediation structures. Opportunities may exist to
develop networks and platforms for the exchange of perspectives and ideas across the
region.
d). Regional Security
In view of the above, there are open questions around alliances, partnerships and
relationships between partners. What exists at the moment is a much looser form of
alliance with less constraining ties between allies than in the past. More efforts should
be exerted to capacity to establish, protect and maintain regional peace with an
effective dismantlement of illegal weapons programs that currently exist.
e). Education & Training
Education and training are key agents for development. They are complementary
activities, which reinforce each other. Education focuses on the function of explaining
concepts, doctrines and practices and teaching procedures. Training focuses on
practicing and applying that knowledge, which helps to assimilate the subject matter
completely. Exercises take training a step further by testing acquired knowledge
during real-life or computer-assisted exercises with a scenario involving large
numbers of participants from a broad range of countries.
In Conclusion, the Middle East remains a highly volatile region troubled with
protracted conflicts. The international community, intergovernmental organizations,
and regional and international partners should all come together in an effort to restore
stability in crisis-hit areas. Further, cross-regional and international cooperation
should focus on assisting Middle Eastern countries in their reform efforts, which will
help restoring peace in the region.
Thank you,