ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Election Tracking No. 12

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: Election Tracking No. 12
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Friday, Nov. 2, 2012
55% “Wrong Track” Matches 2004;
A Difficulty for Obama, but Survivable
Days before the verdict on his bid for a second term, the bad news for Barack Obama is that most
likely voters think the country is headed seriously off on the wrong track. The better news for
Obama: Previous incumbents have survived the same challenge.
Just 43 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll say the country is headed
in the right direction; 55 percent say things are pretty seriously off course. The result, hardly an
ebullient reflection on Obama’s term in office, clearly defines his difficulties.
Yet it was almost precisely the same – 41-55 percent, right direction vs. wrong track – shortly
before the 2004 election, a handicap George W. Bush overcame to win a second term. In another
similarity, Bush fell as low as a 48 percent job approval rating heading into that election; Obama
is at 50 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.
While the precedent by no means promises Obama a second term, it underscores how a president
who’s less than broadly popular can manage to stay competitive. Politics are comparative; while
Bush had weaknesses, his opponent, John Kerry, failed to capitalize on them.
Mitt Romney, by some measures, is doing better than Kerry did. In the closing days of the 2004
election, Kerry mustered no more than 50 percent strong enthusiasm among his own supporters,
a factor that can reflect motivation to vote. Romney, by contrast, has 62 percent strong support
today, roughly on pace with Obama’s 66 percent. Strong enthusiasm among Romney’s
supporters also far surpasses John McCain’s four years ago. (Obama’s, for his part, is on par
with 2008, after lagging earlier in the fall.)
Another comparison, though, shows Romney’s own challenges. Bush in 2004 led Kerry by 12
percentage points on the key issue of the day, security in a post-9/11 world. By contrast, Romney
has been unable to take and hold a clear advantage on this election’s key issue, the economy; his
+4 points vs. Obama in trust to handle the economy falls well short of Bush’s lead on security
eight years ago.
CLOSE – Such are the elements of the continued deadlocked presidential race this year: Romney
has 49 percent support in the latest ABC/Post tracking poll, Obama 48 percent, essentially
identical to the long-running tally.
2
The closeness of the contest, as noted last week, is unusual: Obama’s support has been between
47 and 50 percent consistently since ABC/Post polls started evaluating likely voters in July, and
essentially the same among registered voters back to April 2011. Romney, since July, has
occupied virtually the same narrow band as Obama, between 46 and 50 percent support. Neither
has exceeded 50 percent among likely voters, a record in polls back to 1960, adjusted for thirdparty vote.
TRACK and VOTE – In one uncanny result, vote preferences among right direction/wrong track
likely voters almost exactly mirror ABC/Post pre-election polling in 2004. Then, likely voters
who said the country was headed in the right direction favored Bush by 94-4 percent; today
they’re for Obama by 93-4 percent. “Wrong track” likely voters in 2004 backed Kerry, by 84-12
percent; today they’re for Romney, by 85-11 percent. Bush stayed competitive then, as Obama is
now, by winning a bit more “wrong track” likely voters than losing “right direction” ones.
Two other comparisons involving incumbent elections further frame this year’s contest. In 1992,
when then-President George H.W. Bush lost re-election, 76 percent of registered voters said the
country was seriously off on the wrong track – 21 points more than now – and his approval
rating was down in the low 30s. In 1996, when Bill Clinton won re-election, 55 percent picked
the “wrong track” answer, the same as in 2004 and today, but Clinton at about that time held 58
percent job approval regardless – a good deal better than Bush’s in 2004 and Obama’s now.
It likely was an improving economy that helped Clinton 16 years ago; on that now, as on much
else this year, the jury is out. Consumer sentiment has been advancing, but very slowly, and from
3
a very low level. Even with 171,000 jobs added in October, today’s 7.9 percent unemployment is
hardly comfortable. It was 7.3 percent in October 1992.
INDIES/ PARTIES – With Obama winning support from 91 percent of Democrats and Romney
from a record 95 percent of Republicans, attention turns again to independents, often swing
voters in national elections. They split by 51-44 percent, Romney-Obama, in the latest data, not a
statistically significant division given the sample size.
Where independents wind up does not necessarily determine the outcome; Kerry finished a nonsignificant +1 point in this group in the national exit poll in 2004, but lost the election; Bush
finished +2 among independents in 2000, but lost the popular vote.
In one change, independents this year are more apt to lean toward the Republican Party than they
were in ABC/Post pre-election polling in 2008 (40 percent do now, 32 percent did then); these
may be voters who’ve moved away from full allegiance with the GOP but still tilt that way.
It’s true, too, that comparing independents in pre-election polls vs. the exit poll isn’t perfect;
respondents in exit polls, just having voted, are less apt to say they’re independents.
Indeed the other missing piece is turnout among party regulars – specifically, the proportion of
Democrats to Republicans who cast votes. In the 2008 exit poll Democrats outnumbered
Republicans by 7 points; with that kind of margin Obama could have lost independents and still
won. In 2004, instead, Democrats and Republicans were exactly evenly distributed – the kind of
race in which independents are critical.
In this poll, there’s a mere 3-point gap between the parties – almost precisely halfway between
the 2004 and 2008 exit polls, and again contributing to the exceptional closeness of the contest.
OTHER GROUPS – Turnout among other groups will influence the ultimate partisan divisions.
Nonwhites are far more apt than whites to be Democrats and to support Democratic candidates;
Obama in this poll is backed by 93 percent of blacks, 67 percent of Hispanics and 77 percent of
nonwhites overall. The question is whether they achieve or even exceed their 2008 turnout, a
record 26 percent of the electorate.
Whites, for their part, favor Romney by 58-38 percent; Romney’s now doing about as well
among white women (58 percent, a new high) as among white men (59 percent), boosting him
among women overall, now a close 50-48 percent split, Obama-Romney.
Romney also has now matched his high among political moderates, although with 43 percent
support he trails Obama in this group by 10 points. Obama won moderates by a far broader 21point margin, 60-39 percent, in 2008. Yet he’s outpacing Bush, who lost moderates by 9 points
in 2004, but still won re-election on the strength of record support from conservatives – a level
Romney is rivaling today.
4
Finally there are young likely voters, who back Obama by more than 2-1, as they did in 2008.
Fewer 18- to 29-year-olds now report being registered and certain to vote than did four years
ago; on their eventual turnout, as with so many of these groups, the election well may hinge.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct.
29-Nov. 1, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,535 likely voters, including landline and
cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including
design effect. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New
York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
All four nights of this survey include the period when Hurricane Sandy approached and then hit
the East Coast. Out of the full sample, 236 likely voters were interviewed those nights, Monday
through Thursday, in the Northeast. Results in this group are in accord with comparable data
from nights before the storm struck.
Partisan divisions in this survey, Democrats-Republicans-independents, are 32-29-35 percent
among likely voters. Partisan divisions in the 2008 exit poll were 39-32-29 percent.
Analysis by Gary Langer.
ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com at http://abcnews.com/pollingunit.
Media contacts: David Ford, (212) 456-7243, and Julie Townsend, (212) 456-4934.
Full results follow.
*= less than 0.5 percent
1. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2012 presidential
race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?
---- Closely -------- Not closely ----NET
Very
Smwt
NET
Not so
At all
11/1/12 LV
99
68
31
1
1
*
10/31/12 LV
99
67
32
1
1
*
10/30/12 LV
99
66
33
1
1
*
10/29/12 LV
99
69
30
1
1
*
10/28/12 LV
99
69
30
1
1
*
10/27/12 LV
99
68
31
1
1
*
10/26/12 LV
99
66
33
1
1
*
10/25/12 LV
95
62
33
5
3
2
10/24/12 LV
94
63
32
5
3
2
10/23/12 LV
93
63
31
6
4
2
10/22/12 LV
92
64
28
8
5
3
10/21/12 LV
92
64
28
8
5
3
10/13/12 LV
93
60
33
6
4
2
9/29/12 LV
92
54
38
8
6
2
9/9/12
LV
87
51
36
13
8
5
5/20/12 RV
82
38
44
18
9
8
2/4/12* RV
79
37
43
20
12
8
1/15/12 RV
76
33
43
24
14
10
*2/4/12 and previous not “too” closely
Call for full trend.
No
opinion
0
0
0
0
*
*
0
*
*
*
*
*
*
0
1
*
*
*
5
2. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in
the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you
probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/24/12
10/23/12
10/22/12
10/21/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
9/9/12
8/25/12
7/8/12
Call for
Certain
to vote
RV
72
RV
73
RV
75
RV
76
RV
77
RV
79
RV
79
RV
79
RV
79
RV
80
RV
82
RV
84
RV
85
RV
84
RV
83
RV
81
RV
81
full trend.
Probably
vote
6
6
6
5
5
5
6
6
7
6
5
6
7
7
7
8
9
Chances
50/50
4
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
6
6
4
4
7
6
6
8
Less than
that
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
4
3
2
Don't think
will vote
(vol.)
1
1
1
*
1
*
*
1
1
1
1
*
1
*
*
1
*
Already
voted
(vol.)
16
16
13
12
11
9
8
6
6
5
4
4
1
0
NA
"
No
op.
*
0
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
1
*
0
*
*
2x. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) Do you think you'll (vote in person at your polling place on
Election Day), or (vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in ballot)?
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/24/12
10/23/12
10/22/12
10/21/12
10/13/12
Call for
Vote
in person
LV
60
LV
60
LV
60
LV
61
LV
60
LV
62
LV
62
LV
61
LV
62
LV
62
LV
64
LV
66
LV
67
full trend.
Early voting/
mail-in ballot
18
19
22
21
22
24
25
29
29
28
27
27
30
Already
voted (vol.)
22
21
18
17
15
12
11
8
8
7
6
5
2
No opinion
*
*
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
3. (IF CERTAIN TO VOTE) If the presidential election were being held today and the
candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (Mitt Romney and Paul
Ryan, the Republicans), for whom would you vote? Which candidates are you leaning
toward, (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) or (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the
Republicans)? (ASKED IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE - among likely voters
11/1/12 LV
10/31/12 LV
10/30/12 LV
Obama
48
49
49
Romney
49
48
49
Other
(vol.)
1
1
1
Neither
(vol.)
1
1
*
No
opinion
1
1
1
6
10/29/12 LV
48
49
10/28/12 LV
49
49
10/27/12 LV
48
49
10/26/12 LV
48
49
10/25/12 LV
48
49
10/24/12 LV
47
50
10/23/12 LV
48
49
10/22/12 LV
48
49
10/21/12 LV
49
48
10/13/12 LV
49
46
9/29/12 LV
49
47
9/9/12
LV
49
48
8/25/12 LV
47
49
7/8/12* LV
50
47
*7/18/12: VPs not included
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
1
*
*
1
*
*
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
6. (IF SUPPORT/VOTED OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about
supporting (Obama/Romney), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not
enthusiastic at all?
---- Enthusiastic --NET
Very
Somewhat
--- Not enthusiastic ---NET
Not so
Not at all
No
opinion
Obama:
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/24/12
10/23/12
10/22/12
10/21/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
9/9/12
8/25/12
7/8/12
5/20/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
95
95
96
97
95
95
94
94
96
95
96
96
95
91
93
88
91
93
66
64
64
65
66
64
61
59
60
60
62
64
60
51
56
48
51
51
30
31
32
32
30
31
33
35
35
35
34
32
35
40
38
39
40
41
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
9
7
11
8
7
2
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
7
3
7
5
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
4
3
4
1
*
*
*
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
*
*
0
0
1
1
0
Romney:
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/24/12
10/23/12
10/22/12
10/21/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
9/9/12
8/25/12
7/8/12
5/20/12
Call for
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
full
95
94
95
95
94
95
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
87
87
83
85
75
trend.
62
62
61
61
61
59
59
58
60
62
62
58
62
48
46
42
38
26
33
32
35
34
33
36
35
35
33
31
32
35
31
39
40
41
47
48
5
5
4
4
5
5
6
7
7
6
6
6
7
13
13
17
15
25
3
3
3
3
4
3
5
5
5
5
4
5
4
6
7
12
11
15
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
7
6
4
4
9
*
1
*
*
*
*
*
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
1
*
*
1
7
6x. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you voted for president in any year before this 2012
election, or is this the first year you’ll be voting for president?
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
Call for
Voted before
LV
92
LV
93
LV
94
LV
96
LV
96
LV
93
LV
92
full trend.
First time
8
7
6
4
4
7
8
No opinion
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is
handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/24/12
10/23/12
10/22/12
10/21/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
9/9/12
8/25/12
7/8/12
5/20/12
4/8/12
3/10/12
2/4/12
1/15/12
Call for
-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
LV
50
33
17
LV
50
32
18
LV
50
30
20
LV
50
30
20
LV
51
31
20
LV
50
30
20
LV
50
30
19
LV
49
30
19
LV
49
30
18
LV
50
30
19
LV
49
31
18
LV
50
31
19
LV
50
32
18
LV
48
27
21
LV
49
30
19
LV
48
27
21
LV
51
29
23
RV
48
29
20
RV
51
32
19
RV
46
29
18
RV
50
28
21
RV
48
26
22
full trend.
------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
49
10
39
49
10
39
49
10
39
49
10
39
47
9
39
48
8
40
48
8
41
49
8
41
50
9
41
49
9
40
49
9
40
48
8
40
48
9
40
51
10
41
50
9
41
50
11
39
46
7
40
49
11
38
45
10
36
51
10
40
47
10
38
48
10
38
No
opinion
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
3
4
3
3
4
25. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think things in this country (are generally going
in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the
wrong track)?
11/1/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
8/25/12
7/8/12
4/8/12
1/15/12
11/3/11
9/1/11
6/5/11
1/16/11
LV
LV
RV
RV
Right
direction
43
42
38
29
33
33
30
22
20
32
38
Wrong
track
55
56
60
69
63
64
68
74
77
66
60
No
opinion
2
2
2
2
4
3
2
3
3
2
3
8
12/12/10
10/28/10
6/6/10
3/26/10
1/15/10
11/15/09
10/18/09
8/17/09
6/21/09
4/24/09
3/29/09
2/22/09
1/16/09
12/14/08
10/25/08
10/11/08
9/22/08
8/22/08
6/15/08
5/11/08
1/12/08
Call for
31
27
37
38
37
44
44
44
47
50
42
31
19
15
LV
13
RV
8
RV
14
19
14
16
21
full trend.
RV
67
71
60
60
62
55
54
55
50
48
57
67
78
82
85
90
83
78
84
82
77
2
2
3
2
1
2
2
1
3
2
1
2
3
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
12. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you
trust to do a better job handling the economy - (Obama) or (Romney)?
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/24/12
10/23/12
10/22/12
10/21/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
9/9/12
8/25/12
7/8/12
5/20/12
4/8/12
2/4/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
Obama
46
47
47
46
47
45
44
44
43
44
45
46
48
47
47
43
45
47
44
44
Romney
50
49
49
49
49
50
51
51
52
50
50
48
47
47
45
50
48
47
48
50
Both
(vol.)
*
*
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
*
1
*
1
1
Neither
(vol.)
2
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
4
3
4
3
3
4
3
No
opinion
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
3
2
4
3
3
3
3
2
13. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think
better understands the economic problems people in this country are having - (Obama)
or (Romney)?
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
Obama
50
50
50
49
50
49
Romney
45
45
44
45
44
44
Both
(vol.)
1
1
1
2
2
2
Neither
(vol.)
3
3
3
3
3
4
No
opinion
1
1
1
1
1
1
9
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/24/12
10/23/12
10/22/12
10/21/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
9/9/12
8/25/12
7/8/12
5/20/12
4/8/12
2/4/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
48
49
48
50
51
51
51
52
50
47
51
48
49
52
45
47
46
45
44
44
42
39
40
40
40
40
38
37
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
1
2
2
2
2
4
3
3
2
2
3
4
6
4
9
5
8
8
7
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
18. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative of
the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your
support, or not?
11/1/12 - Summary Table (among likely voters)
Yes
29
27
a. Obama
b. Romney
No
69
71
No opinion
2
2
Trend:
a. Obama
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
8/25/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
RV
Yes
29
30
28
28
26
23
23
22
27
23
20
No
69
68
69
70
72
75
75
76
71
76
79
No opinion
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
Yes
27
27
26
25
24
23
23
23
22
20
13
No
71
71
71
72
74
75
75
75
75
79
86
No opinion
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
1
*
b. Romney
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
8/25/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
RV
18o. (IF CONTACTED BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted,
within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?
11/1/12
LV
Within last
week
64
Within last
month
27
Longer
ago
7
No
opinion
1
10
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
66
65
64
63
62
62
61
54
53
25
25
24
25
28
27
29
37
34
7
9
10
9
8
9
6
9
10
2
2
2
3
2
2
4
*
3
18/18o NET:
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
---------------------- Yes ----------------------NET
Last week
Last month
Longer
Don't know
29
19
8
2
*
30
19
7
2
1
28
18
7
2
1
28
18
7
3
1
26
16
7
2
1
23
14
6
2
1
23
14
6
2
1
22
13
6
1
1
27
15
10
2
*
23
12
8
2
NA
Not
contacted
69
68
69
70
72
75
75
76
71
76
No
op.
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
18r. (IF CONTACTED BY ROMNEY CAMPAIGN) When was the last time you were contacted,
within the last week, within the last month or longer ago than that?
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
Within last
week
64
60
64
63
64
63
58
57
57
55
Within last
month
27
30
26
26
26
25
32
33
35
34
Longer
ago
5
7
6
7
7
8
8
8
7
9
No
opinion
3
3
4
5
4
4
2
2
1
1
18/18r NET:
11/1/12
10/31/12
10/30/12
10/29/12
10/28/12
10/27/12
10/26/12
10/25/12
10/13/12
9/29/12
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
LV
RV
---------------------NET
Last week
Last
27
17
27
16
26
17
25
16
24
15
23
14
23
13
23
13
22
13
20
11
Yes ----------------------month
Longer
Don't know
7
1
1
8
2
1
7
2
1
6
2
1
6
2
1
6
2
1
7
2
*
8
2
*
8
2
*
7
2
NA
Not
contacted
71
71
71
72
74
75
75
75
75
79
No
op.
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
1
*** END ***
11