A Review of High-frequency Financial Data Based on Characteristics in China
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A Review of High-frequency Financial Data Based on Characteristics in China
EASTERN ACADEMIC FORUM A Review of High-frequency Financial Data Based on Characteristics in China JIANG Xiangcheng, YANG Yedi School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China Abstract: With the growing risks of financial participation, high-frequency time series becomes more and more important in determining the financial risks. This essay studied the current situation of the characteristics of high-frequency financial data from four aspects, including the study of sampling frequency, volatility, price discovery and liquidity. And then put forward some problems in present research and advanced some outlooks to provide some help in future. Keywords: High-frequency data, Characteristics, Current situation, Problems, Outlooks, China The high-frequency data was used in physics for the study of natural phenomena originally, such as analysis of sound waves, hydrologic time series and so on. In recent years, with the rapid development of financial market, financial participation risks increase. High-frequency data was extended to research financial time series gradually, to seek the law of financial market, so as to make the right prediction and lower the investment risks in the future. The research of High-frequency data is of great significance in both theory and practice. First of all, in the operation of financial market, high-frequency data contains more abundant information resources than low-frequency data. As we all know, the key factor deciding the success or failure of the investment is the information obtained. In the financial market, information is continuous, discrete collection may cause information loss in varying degrees. The lower sampling frequency is, the more the information lost. So high-frequency data can reflect the real situation of financial markets better than low-frequency data. Secondly, high-frequency financial data research can supply the gaps and overcome the defects of low-frequency data research models, even can coordinate with the improved low-frequency time series models mutually to study the operation of financial markets jointly. Finally, the studies of highfrequency financial data provide the possibility to describe the micro market movement from the angle of quantification. With the study of high-frequency financial data characteristics, we can know the working of financial markets better. The performance of high-frequency financial data will be affected by the sampling frequency. And volatility and price discovery can reflect its features. In addition, we could find out different liquidity in different financial market by studying it. China’s studies in this field start late, but grow fast. Moreover, they pay more attention on volatility and price discovery of high-frequency financial time series. 1 Sampling Frequency High-frequency financial time series is essentially a form of discrete data, and the discretization depends on the sampling frequency. As is known to all, different sampling frequency will show different features. What’s more, using high-frequency financial data needs longer operation time and higher collection costs, so searching the suitable sampling frequency, studying different features under different sampling frequency is of great importance for us to obtain accurate information resources. Researchers in other countries study the sampling frequency of high-frequency financial data earlier, such as Yacine et al. (2005) believed that the higher the sampling frequency is, the less the information Corresponding author. Tel: 13851475475 (China) Email address: [email protected] Current address: Hohai University, Jiangning District, Nanjing, China, 211100. 3 EASTERN ACADEMIC FORUM lose, so the higher, the better. Recently, some scholars go deep, for example, the research by Cleiton (2011) using Nyquist-shannon sampling theory proposed by Shannon in1949, concluded that we could find out the optimal sampling frequency by using Spectral Analysis. However, China starts later, and fewer studies study sampling frequency of high-frequency financial time series. But more and more people begin to realize the importance of sampling frequency studies and pay close attention to them. As to the sampling frequency, some scholars consider the higher the better, notable examples are the studies by Wang et al. (2010), who use Shanghai composite index and Standard & Poor's 500 Index, calculate and use SPA methods to test the prediction accuracy of each volatility models with bootstrap characteristics on the basis of applying different sampling frequency of high-frequency financial data, conclude that high-frequency data volatility models are better than lowfrequency data volatility models to forecast volatility of financial market. Nevertheless, some scholars don’t think so. Higher sampling frequency may not improve the prediction accuracy of financial risk well, as in Miao (2011). But, for the past years, almost all such studies focus on the analysis of operation results between highfrequency data and low-frequency data, and discuss the direct relations between sampling frequency and prediction accuracy. There is no research studying the difference of high-frequency financial data between different high sampling frequencies and cause, such as different characteristics between highfrequency financial time series with sampling frequencies in 1 minute, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, and 15 minutes, calculating and making comparisons between different calculation results. 2 Volatility Volatility is one of the most important characteristics of high-frequency financial data. In recent years, with the deepening of the reform in financial market, China's financial investors and institutions strengthen their risk management consciousness constantly. Handling the volatility of high frequency financial data, selecting the appropriate volatility models to discuss it, exploring its regularity, are of increasingly importance to make accurate estimation of the volatility and prediction of financial assets. 2.1 The methods to deal with volatility In the studies of high-frequency financial time series, foreign researchers do a lot in the processing of volatility, for example, Lacopo et al. (2009) used improved Fourier Transform, Yuan et al. (2002) used The Bayesian Spectrum Estimation. In addition to remove the special value simply, some scholars take logarithm on the sample data, using ADF and KPSS method to test the yield sequence, as in Zeng (2007). Some use Bayesian Spectrum Estimation who believe this method is suitable for random characteristics of high-frequency financial data and could give a more realistic conclusion, as in Li (2010). Also some scholars consider WRBV method is a good way to solve the jump point problem and eliminate the calendar effect of stock market, as in Fu (2013). 2.2 Models of volatility With the early work by Engle’s ARCH model, Bollerslev’s GARCH model and Taylor’s Stochastic Volatility Model, GARCH class models and stochastic volatility model stand their leading position in the forecast of volatility gradually. And then the ACD models proposed by Engle and Russell were applied to the study of volatility of high frequency financial time series gradually. Recently, the shortened realized variance (TRV) is used to study the noise in high-frequency financial time series (Mancini, 2013). Realized volatility models (Chaboud, 2010; Degiannakis, 2013) and ACD model (Allen, 2013) are used to seek the volatility of high-frequency financial data. In the past few years, most of the studies in China concentrate on the prediction and calculation of the volatility using different models. As to the models of volatility, several improvements were made to some low-frequency data models, including three categories mainly, one is the improved traditional 4 EASTERN ACADEMIC FORUM low-frequency data models, and the second is the improved high-frequency data models, such as ACD model, another is the improved models in the field of physics, computer and others. 2.2.1 Improved low-frequency financial data models As far as the volatility models of High-frequency financial data is concerned, recently, most scholars in China pay more attention to applying the improved traditional low-frequency data models to highfrequency financial data series to study the financial market volatility. Moreover, one of the improved low-frequency data models, used more, is the expansion of the ARCH class models, including strong GARCH class models, weak ARCH class models. Another is the improved SV model. Improved GARCH models are used to study the volatility of high-frequency financial time series often (Xiong et al., 2012) and improved SV models, such as realized volatility of heterogeneous autoregressive model is used to measure the volatility of China's stock index futures returns (Wen et al., 2012). More traditionally, after stationary test, Tang et al. (2012) examined the relationships between jump, noise, and liquidity by using Granger causality test, and then analyzed the direct positive and negative relationships between each factors through the regression analysis. The results of their research reflected that noise was caused by some specific information, which would have a great impact on the volatility. As for the performance of improved low-frequency models in measuring the volatility of high-frequency financial time series, conclusions are various. Some studies show that low-frequency data models perform well, while others don’t. Let’s take GARCH class models for example. Some researchers believe GARCH class models could reveal the volatility clustering characteristic of high frequency financial time series well (Xie et al., 2012), but some do think their forecasting ability is poor (Wei, 2012). 2.2.2 Improved high-frequency financial data models ACD models and improved ACD models which are put some microstructure variables in are considered to describe the dynamics correlation of the volatility jump phase, such as Liu et al. (2012) constructed ACD-GARCH-Model to measure and analyze the volatility of high-frequency financial time series, and discussed the direct relationships between volume, duration, the rate of return and volatility. They expanded the use of ACD model, and thought the improved model reacted well in the measurement of the volatility clustering of high-frequency financial data. And also some other models used to study the jump duration of high-frequency financial data, such as ACH model (Yang et al., 2011) and its extension model, extreme POT model (Gui et al., 2010). 2.2.3 Improved models of other fields Over the years, more and more scholars apply multifractal theory to the field of high-frequency financial time series. They put forward and use multifractal volatility to measure the volatility of financial market. Some scholars compare the performance of multifractal theory in high-frequency financial time series to low-frequency data improved models, and demonstrate its advantages, for example, papers by Wei (2012) argue that multifractal volatility model is more suitable than improved low-frequency data models in the measurement of the high-frequency financial time series’ volatility. Neural network model which is generally used in Computer Science, is also improved and used in the study of high frequency financial data. The improved neural network model is thought to perform well in the description of volatility of high frequency financial time series, such as Xu et al. (2007), combined the neural network model with the wavelet cross-correlation model, and proposed the Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) Model for quantitative study of volatility in high-frequency data’s "calendar effect" problem, and show that WNN model is able to depict the "calendar effect" well. 3 Price Discovery Price discovery is an important aspect of high frequency financial time series features. The price discovery of high-frequency financial data mainly refers to the forecast of future prices reflected by the current price, as well as the price transport phenomena in the high-frequency financial time series. Price discovery of high-frequency financial data is studied by many scholars in foreign countries. Some 5 EASTERN ACADEMIC FORUM research shows there is no cointegration relation between futures and spot (Chevallier, 2010), but some research make a different conclusion, manifesting that there are specific evidences showing that futures market play an important role in price leadership, and we could make the prediction of the prices in the spot market through the prices in futures market, there is a cointegration relationship between the spot and futures. Price discovery is one of the main research directions of high-frequency financial time series’ characteristics. Most of the research focuses on the leading relationship between futures and spot goods prices and which has the leading role in the market. Different conclusion appears in different scholars’ research. As to the leading relationship between the prices of futures and spot goods as well as it’s leading function, some learned men believe that spot goods plays a leading role in the price discovery, such as Yan et al. (2009), also some scholars consider that the futures price run ahead of the spots index, such as Ren (2010), in addition, a part of scholars argue that the prices of spots and futures lead each other, such as Peng (2010). As for the cause of price discovery, in other counties, the degree of information sharing is often thought to be a significant cause that will influence the speed of price discovery. Additionally, the sum number of information sharing is the signal of the price discovery speed. The more the information shares, the faster the speed of price discovery is, as Frijins (2009). Similar results are drawn in China. Research indicates that information will affect the function of price discovery in high frequency financial data. In addition, information asymmetry and the existence of private information are important reasons that will lead to abnormal relationships between prices and reversal effect, and will affect the prediction function of price discovery, such as Zhu (2011). As far as the models of Price discovery is concerned, in the field of high-frequency financial data, expect the traditional analysis method of vector error correction model, the newly applied methods, such as the wavelet time-frequency cross-correlation analysis method, not only pays attention to time dimension, but also tests the dynamic correlation of time series from the view of the frequency domain and time domain. It provides a new perspective for the dynamic causal analysis in high-frequency financial time series. 4 Liquidity After the financial crisis in the year of 2007, if the liquidity height of financial market can remind investors to determine their ability of resisting unpredictable risks has caused great attention among researchers. High-frequency financial data is thought to be more effective in the research of liquidity in financial markets. Foreign people, Riordan (2012) thinks in a market, the increased waiting time of most small and medium-sized stocks can lead to an increase in liquidity. The liquidity of financial markets is studied a lot in China through researching high-frequency financial time series. As far as how the block trade affects the liquidity of financial markets is concerned, Feng et al. (2008) confirmed the asymmetry phenomenon behind block trade through studying the frequency data with different frequency in the different regions, countries. He maintained that the liquidity was poorer in the often city than in the bear market. But this scholar made a totally different conclusion in 2012. This time, his study showed that liquidity was higher in the often city significantly than in the very city (bull market and bear market) environment. Investigating its reasons, maybe the highfrequency financial data intervals are different, as well as the sample size was different, and the methods have been improved. Also the factors that influence liquidity are researched. Most researchers agree that information affects the liquidity of securities, so we could improve the information owning rate and reduce the investment risks by enhancing financial market liquidity. 6 EASTERN ACADEMIC FORUM 5 Problems and Outlooks At present, there is gradually growing research about high-frequency financial data, more and more scholars come to realize the importance of research in high-frequency financial data. It is necessary to seek the operation rule of financial markets, reduce risks, and promote the health of the financial market operation. But there are still many problems to be effective solved, still a long way to go. 5.1 Problems Although the studies of characteristics in high-frequency financial time series develop fast, there are still a lot of problems to be solved. To begin with, sampling frequency research of high-frequency financial data is relative insufficient, it also can be understood as the lake of the understanding to the process of high-frequency time series. What are the differences under different sampling frequency, and what is the optimal sampling frequency, which model is suitable for high-frequency financial time series with a certain kind of sampling frequency. All of these need to be further explored. In addition, the handling methods of volatility need to be further deepened. Ignoring special value is Chinese traditional way to deal with volatility. Few scholars use Bayesian Method and other methods to deal with high frequency financial data. Ignoring the special value or exploring other ways should be further researched. What’s more, volatility models need more studies. Different models have different features and scope of application. Further research should not only include the suitable models, for example, using improved low-frequency models or high-frequency models, but also should consider the options about variables, such as volume, price, time and so on. Of course, we also need to compare the application ranges of different models. Personally, to study the characteristics of high-frequency financial time series, future study should enhance the research about specific high-frequency financial data models, rather than just improve the low-frequency financial data models, such as GARCH model, SV model, and apply them to the field of high-frequency time series. Finally, we should go further through the nonlinear way, because high-frequency financial data is a kind of nonlinear data basically. There are already some scholars in foreign countries nonlinear way to study its characteristics, viewing high-frequency financial data from the point view of chaos, but there are almost none essay studying it from this way in China. 5.2 A few directions about future study Firstly, it is an important issue to research the sampling frequency about high-frequency financial time series. With different sampling frequency, the nature of the financial data is different. So it is important to study the sampling frequency, find the suitable models, and locate the optimal frequency. Secondly, the handling measurement of particular value in high frequency financial time series needs further research. Everybody knows, the treatment of data is as important as selection, and different treating ways will produce different results. For this reason, we should seek the most suitable handling way after studying sampling frequency. Thirdly, further deepen the studies of volatility models, including the following aspects: (1) Clear the applicability of the volatility models. We should clear if the models are suitable for using no matter they are low-frequency date models or high-frequency data models. We should study how to select the appropriate variables in the models, such as first use a model, selecting the same data sources, the same sampling frequency, then add another variable, compare the differences between the two models’ results and prove the cause about the differences, judge whether the variables can be added to the model. (2) Strengthen the study of continuous time models. The observed data in the reality is discrete, and discrete models are widely used. However, future studies could go on from the view of continuous time models. High-frequency financial time series, especially the ultrahigh frequency financial time series, is 7 EASTERN ACADEMIC FORUM more similar to continuous time, so from the view of continuous time series models to study this problem is a worthy of further method. (3) Improve models in other fields. Find applicable models in other areas, improve them, and then applied into high-frequency financial time series, not only including improve the current studies in Neural Network Model, multifractal model, Time-varying wavelet model and so on, but also including seek new models, for example, seek the chaotic characteristics of high frequency financial data, and make models. (4) As far as the studies of ultrahigh-frequency financial time series is concerned, since Engle put forward ACD model, there are still a lot of problems to be further discussed, such as persistent problem of the trading interval, stationary ergodic problem of ACD model, and variable structure of ACD model and so on. Finally, study the characteristics of high frequency financial data from the nonlinear angle and its nonlinear models. Fundamentally speaking, high-frequency financial data have more of the nonlinear characteristics, so it deserves to be studied from the nonlinear perspective, and seek appropriate nonlinear models. 6 Conclusion High-frequency financial data contains more information resources than low-frequency financial data, so it is used to make prediction in financial market gradually. For the past few years, more and more scholars study the characteristics of high-frequency financial data to make more accurate predictions. This essay fist analyzes the current situation of studies on the characteristics of high-frequency financial data, including sampling frequency, volatility (we analyze the treatment of volatility and volatility models in this part), price discovery and liquidity. 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