Table A1: Clinton “Morality” Ratings, 1992

Table A1: Clinton “Morality” Ratings, 1992
Regression parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
Republican
Partisanship
-.090
-.106
-.016
-.099
-.099
(.012)
(.010)
(.016)
(.008)
(.008)
Conservative
Ideology
-.089
-.050
.039
-.069
-.069
(.018)
(.017)
(.025)
(.012)
(.012)
Age
.00112
-.00142
-.00254
-.00007
-.00002
(.00239)
(.00216)
(.00322)
(.00160)
(.00159)
Age
Squared
-.0000171
.0000058
.0000229
-.0000066
-.0000070
(.0000238)
(.0000210)
(.0000317)
(.0000157)
(.0000157)
Education
-.0130
-.0128
.0002
-.0130
-.0132
(.0029)
(.0024)
(.0038)
(.0018)
(.0018)
Married
Black
Follow
Public Affairs
Intercept
-.003
.013
.016
.006
.006
(.015)
(.013)
(.019)
(.010)
(.009)
.031
.091
.060
.063
.062
(.022)
(.019)
(.029)
(.014)
(.014)
-.058
-.039
.019
-.048
-.048
(.024)
(.021)
(.032)
(.016)
(.016)
.499
.535
.036
.512
.514
(.053)
(.048)
(.072)
(.036)
(.036)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.007
---
adjusted R2
.15
.19
.17
.17
.17
standard error
of regression
.230
.219
.224
.224
.224
N
1126
1359
2485
2485
2485
(.009)
Table A2: Correct Relative Ideological Placements of Bush and Clinton, 1992
Probit parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
Age
Education
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
-.00033
.00031
.00064
-.00005
.00002
(.00252)
(.00224)
(.00337)
(.00167)
(.00167)
.1394
.1267
-.0127
.1321
.1298
(.0186)
(.0163)
(.0247)
(.0122)
(.0122)
Follow
Public Affairs
.577
.739
.162
.667
.666
(.152)
(.134)
(.203)
(.101)
(.101)
Ideological
Extremity
.474
.550
.076
.511
.514
(.158)
(.158)
(.224)
(.112)
(.112)
-.594
-.652
-.058
-.629
-.625
(.112)
(.101)
(.151)
(.075)
(.075)
No SelfPlacement
Intercept
.032
.015
-.017
-.027
.024
(.154)
(.140)
(.208)
(.107)
(.103)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.099
---
pseudo-R2
.18
.20
.19
.19
.19
log-likelihood
-587.59
-701.73
-1289.32
-1290.13
-1291.61
N
1126
1359
2485
2485
2485
(.058)
Table A3: Economic Perceptions, 1992
Regression parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
Age
Education
Income
Black
Female
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
-.00041
.00025
.00066
-.00005
-.00003
(.00097)
(.00088)
(.00131)
(.00065)
(.00065)
-.0052
-.0051
.0001
-.0051
-.0054
(.0071)
(.0063)
(.0095)
(.0047)
(.0047)
-.002
-.090
-.088
-.050
-.052
(.066)
(.062)
(.090)
(.045)
(.045)
-.027
-.000
.027
-.011
-.012
(.050)
(.047)
(.069)
(.034)
(.034)
-.067
-.120
-.053
-.095
-.095
(.033)
(.031)
(.045)
(.022)
(.022)
Republican
Partisanship
.206
.175
-.031
.189
.189
(.026)
(.023)
(.035)
(.017)
(.017)
Follow
Public Affairs
.012
-.101
-.113
-.052
-.052
(.058)
(.052)
(.078)
(.039)
(.039)
Intercept
-.607
-.482
.125
-.547
-.535
(.065)
(.059)
(.088)
(.046)
(.044)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.020
---
adjusted R2
.06
.06
.06
.06
.06
standard error
of regression
.539
.546
.543
.543
.543
N
1126
1359
2485
2485
2485
(.022)
Table A4: Campaign Interest, 1992
Regression parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
Age
Education
Income
Black
Female
Partisan
Strength
Days Before
Election
Intercept
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
.00307
.00245
-.00062
.00272
.00272
(.00060)
(.00054)
(.00081)
(.00040)
(.00040)
.0440
.0231
-.0209
.0324
.0324
(.0043)
(.0037)
(.0057)
(.0028)
(.0028)
.058
.071
.013
.065
.065
(.041)
(.037)
(.055)
(.028)
(.027)
-.012
-.028
-.016
-.019
-.019
(.031)
(.028)
(.041)
(.020)
(.020)
-.014
-.055
-.041
-.037
-.037
(.020)
(.018)
(.027)
(.014)
(.014)
.204
.214
.010
.209
.209
(.030)
(.027)
(.041)
(.020)
(.020)
-.00246
-.00144
.00102
-.00200
-.00200
(.00053)
(.00050)
(.00073)
(.00036)
(.00036)
.362
.391
.029
.383
.384
(.042)
(.038)
(.057)
(.029)
(.028)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.002
---
adjusted R2
.17
.11
.14
.13
.13
standard error
of regression
.335
.331
.333
.334
.333
N
1126
1359
2485
2485
2485
(.014)
Table A5: Presidential Turnout, 1992
Probit parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(post-election respondents)
Age
Education
Income
Married
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
.01015
.01896
.00881
.01508
.01507
(.00283)
(.00249)
(.00377)
(.00186)
(.00186)
.1678
.1273
-.0405
.1445
.1448
(.0203)
(.0176)
(.0269)
(.0133)
(.0132)
.693
1.011
.318
.864
.866
(.201)
(.181)
(.270)
(.134)
(.134)
.161
.153
-.008
.150
.149
(.102)
(.088)
(.135)
(.066)
(.066)
Partisan
Strength
.797
.843
.046
.822
.821
(.140)
(.126)
(.188)
(.093)
(.093)
Intercept
-.749
-1.303
-.554
-1.035
-1.044
(.165)
(.154)
(.225)
(.117)
(.112)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
-.017
---
pseudo-R2
.17
.17
.17
.17
.17
log-likelihood
-468.69
-605.67
-1074.35
-1080.25
-1080.29
N
1005
1250
2255
2255
2255
(.063)
Table A6: Presidential Vote, 1992
Probit parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(major-party voters only)
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
Republican
Partisanship
1.576
1.552
-.024
1.557
1.561
(.121)
(.109)
(.163)
(.081)
(.081)
Conservative
Ideology
1.100
.818
-.282
.949
.944
(.213)
(.206)
(.296)
(.147)
(.147)
Anti-Aid to
Minorities
.137
.323
.186
.231
.230
(.131)
(.129)
(.184)
(.091)
(.091)
Pro-Defense
Spending
.296
.225
-.071
.261
.254
(.179)
(.168)
(.245)
(.122)
(.121)
Anti-Abortion
Economy
Better
Intercept
.204
.274
.070
.242
.239
(.108)
(.100)
(.147)
(.073)
(.073)
.469
.407
-.062
.433
.430
(.139)
(.122)
(.185)
(.091)
(.091)
.225
.080
-.145
.198
.144
(.134)
(.119)
(.179)
(.104)
(.088)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
-.096
---
pseudo-R2
.55
.56
.55
.55
.55
log-likelihood
-191.82
-219.30
-411.12
-412.14
-412.61
N
624
733
1357
1357
1357
(.099)
Table A7: Clinton “Morality” Ratings, 1996
Regression parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
Republican
Partisanship
-.188
-.192
-.004
-.192
-.192
(.022)
(.011)
(.025)
(.010)
(.010)
Conservative
Ideology
-.076
-.081
-.005
-.080
-.080
(.036)
(.019)
(.041)
(.017)
(.017)
Age
.00085
-.00606
-.00691
-.00377
-.00387
(.00418)
(.00235)
(.00480)
(.00200)
(.00200)
Age
Squared
-.0000106
.0000564
.0000670
.0000356
.0000363
(.0000426)
(.0000221)
(.0000480)
(.0000192)
(.0000192)
Education
-.0106
-.0138
-.0032
-.0130
-.0131
(.0056)
(.0026)
(.0061)
(.0024)
(.0024)
-.030
-.020
.010
-.023
-.023
(.027)
(.014)
(.030)
(.012)
(.012)
Married
Black
Follow
Public Affairs
Intercept
.128
.085
-.043
.096
.097
(.039)
(.021)
(.044)
(.019)
(.019)
.025
-.053
-.078
-.037
-.038
(.046)
(.023)
(.052)
(.020)
(.020)
.385
.578
.193
.522
.518
(.088)
(.056)
(.104)
(.047)
(.046)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
-.010
---
adjusted R2
.31
.37
.36
.36
.36
standard error
of regression
.250
.232
.236
.236
.236
N
398
1316
1714
1714
1714
(.014)
Table A8: Correct Relative Ideological Placements of Clinton and Dole, 1996
Probit parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
Age
Education
Follow
Public Affairs
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
.00437
.00251
-.00186
.00303
.00311
(.00450)
(.00243)
(.00512)
(.00214)
(.00213)
.1388
.1673
.0285
.1603
.1603
(.0332)
(.0173)
(.0374)
(.0153)
(.0153)
.793
.337
-.456
.418
.419
(.278)
(.143)
(.313)
(.126)
(.126)
Ideological
Extremity
1.111
.784
-.327
.852
.852
(.305)
(.162)
(.345)
(.142)
(.142)
No SelfPlacement
-.692
-.467
.225
-.525
-.528
(.181)
(.108)
(.211)
(.092)
(.092)
Intercept
-.275
.043
.318
-.052
-.033
(.246)
(.145)
(.286)
(.135)
(.124)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.030
---
pseudo-R2
.24
.19
.20
.20
.20
log-likelihood
-189.48
-625.90
-815.38
-818.91
-818.98
N
398
1316
1714
1714
1714
(.084)
Table A9: Economic Perceptions, 1996
Regression parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
Age
Education
Income
Black
Female
Republican
Partisanship
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
.00371
.00188
-.00183
.00223
.00236
(.00214)
(.00114)
(.00243)
(.00101)
(.00100)
.0472
.0236
-.0236
.0292
.0292
(.0156)
(.0080)
(.0175)
(.0071)
(.0071)
.191
.264
.073
.244
.248
(.143)
(.081)
(.164)
(.070)
(.070)
-.133
-.057
.076
-.076
-.078
(.105)
(.061)
(.122)
(.053)
(.053)
-.054
-.152
-.098
-.128
-.130
(.074)
(.038)
(.084)
(.034)
(.034)
-.320
-.294
.026
-.301
-.301
(.055)
(.028)
(.061)
(.025)
(.025)
Follow
Public Affairs
.257
.165
-.092
.189
.191
(.128)
(.066)
(.144)
(.059)
(.059)
Intercept
-.272
-.050
.222
-.134
-.108
(.138)
(.082)
(.161)
(.074)
(.070)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.045
---
adjusted R2
.12
.10
.11
.11
.11
standard error
of regression
.686
.667
.671
.671
.671
N
398
1316
1714
1714
1714
(.039)
Table A10: Campaign Interest, 1996
Regression parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(pre-election respondents)
Age
Education
Income
Black
Female
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
.00340
.00280
-.00060
.00292
.00300
(.00105)
(.00056)
(.00119)
(.00049)
(.00049)
.0306
.0266
-.0040
.0277
.0278
(.0074)
(.0038)
(.0084)
(.0034)
(.0034)
.038
.044
.006
.044
.046
(.070)
(.040)
(.080)
(.034)
(.034)
.028
.104
.076
.087
.087
(.050)
(.030)
(.058)
(.025)
(.025)
-.005
-.050
-.045
-.040
-.042
(.036)
(.018)
(.040)
(.016)
(.016)
Partisan
Strength
.358
.231
-.127
.260
.261
(.055)
(.029)
(.062)
(.025)
(.025)
Days Before
Election
.0002
.0006
.0004
.0005
.0005
(.0010)
(.0005)
(.0011)
(.0005)
(.0005)
Intercept
.051
.186
.135
.136
.151
(.072)
(.043)
(.084)
(.038)
(.037)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.027
---
adjusted R2
.17
.11
.13
.13
.13
standard error
of regression
.335
.330
.331
.331
.331
N
398
1316
1714
1714
1714
(.019)
Table A11: Presidential Turnout, 1996
Probit parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(post-election respondents)
Age
Education
Income
Married
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
.01794
.01769
-.00025
.01738
.01763
(.00481)
(.00272)
(.00552)
(.00235)
(.00233)
.1647
.1309
-.0338
.1404
.1406
(.0338)
(.0185)
(.0385)
(.0162)
(.0162)
.325
1.066
.741
.847
.855
(.342)
(.213)
(.403)
(.180)
(.179)
.326
.253
-.073
.278
.278
(.176)
(.097)
(.201)
(.084)
(.084)
Partisan
Strength
.906
1.169
.263
1.100
1.099
(.255)
(.139)
(.291)
(.121)
(.121)
Intercept
-1.309
-1.644
-.335
-1.580
-1.543
(.284)
(.191)
(.343)
(.165)
(.157)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.069
---
pseudo-R2
.16
.19
.19
.19
.19
log-likelihood
-175.66
-538.29
-713.95
-716.16
-716.46
N
337
1197
1534
1534
1534
(.090)
Table A12: Presidential Vote, 1996
Probit parameter estimates with standard errors in parentheses
(major-party voters only)
Republican
Partisanship
X-section
Panel
Difference
Semi-pooled
Pooled
1.886
1.508
-.378
1.558
1.550
(.256)
(.105)
(.277)
(.096)
(.095)
Conservative
Ideology
.775
1.024
.249
.976
.960
(.421)
(.207)
(.469)
(.185)
(.183)
Anti-Aid to
Minorities
.792
.230
-.562
.321
.328
(.330)
(.143)
(.359)
(.130)
(.129)
Pro-Defense
Spending
.176
.215
.039
.214
.223
(.394)
(.168)
(.428)
(.153)
(.152)
Anti-Abortion
.378
.163
-.215
.201
.213
(.215)
(.097)
(.235)
(.087)
(.087)
Economy
Better
-.315
-.464
-.149
-.436
-.422
(.222)
(.099)
(.244)
(.090)
(.089)
Intercept
-.704
-.242
.462
-.561
-.321
(.225)
(.094)
(.243)
(.151)
(.084)
Panel
Indicator
---
---
---
.296
---
pseudo-R2
.66
.58
.60
.60
.59
log-likelihood
-44.91
-236.50
-281.41
-283.95
-285.85
N
203
831
1034
1034
1034
(.153)