The Italian NPL market | 01

The Italian NPL market | 01 Real estate market overview p4 | 02 European Banks’s impaired assets analysis p6 |
03 The NPL market in Italy p10 | 04 Recent market activity and outlook p14 | Appendix p18
The Italian NPL market
A sparkling H1-2015
November 2015
www.pwc.com/it
Foreword
Content
With almost €12 billion of assets sold in the market
in the first 9 months, 2015 is definitively meeting our
expectations of being the year for the Italian NPL and
non core market Renaissance.
01. Real estate market overview
04
02. European Banks’ impaired assets analysis
06
03. The NPL market in Italy
10
04. Recent market activity and outlook
14
Appendix
18
Considering current market dynamics and the deals
pipeline we foresee the sparkling situation which
characterized the first half of the year is likely to
continue throughout the year and further improve over
next year. We expect transaction volumes in FY16 to be
in the range of €20bn GBV, with some relevant deals
to deploy in the first half of the year. In terms of asset
classes we expect a boost in secured/leasing transactions
(both portfolios and single names) that will add up to a
persistently dynamic unsecured loans market.
Antonella Pagano
[email protected]
Fedele Pascuzzi
[email protected]
Laura Gasparini
[email protected]
01
Key Message: H1-2015 showed promising signs of
recovery of the RE market with Q2 registering increases
in the number of RE transfer of properties for all RE
sectors and with CRE investments reaching €3.6 bn at the
end of June. We do expect an even more dynamic market
thanks to the macroeconomic scenario, the enlargement
of the investors’ base and the appetite towards new asset
classes.
Real estate market overview
The Real Estate market in H1-2015 has become
more appealing compared to previous years.
Q2-2015 registered an increasing trend of RE
transfer of properties, both in urban and peripheral
areas with a +6.6% for residential assets (mainly
thanks to upturns in the areas of North East
and Islands) and a timid +1.9% for economic1
destination.
1
As for the CRE market segment, total investments
into Italian CRE in the first half reached a peak
of €3.6 bn denoting investors’ high confidence
towards the Italian market. Most of the invested
capital comes from foreign investors whose
investments accounted for 70% of total investments
in Q2 (€1.7 bn) and for 89% of the total amount
in Q1 (€1.9 bn). The annual evolution of foreign
investments looks more than doubled in H1-2015
versus H1-2014, reaching the peak since H1-2007.
Foreign investor basis comprises mainly US funds
together with Middle East and Asian players.
Economic usage include artisanal, commercial, industrial as well as office usage
4 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
H1-2015 has been highly influenced by the Qatar Holding
deal which consisted in the purchase of the remaining
shares of the funds owning the mixed use Porta Nuova
development in Milan.
Moreover, major portfolio deals included the purchase of
four shopping centers by Tristan Capital Partners (€122
mln of value) and the acquisition of a public real estate
portfolio of barracks in various Italian cities by Cerberus
(€228 mln of value).
In July 2015 China’s Fosun Group has extended its
footprint in Italy by buying the former Milan headquarters
of Unicredit for €345 mln.
Chart 1: CRE investment volume by sector Q2 2015
14%
Hotels
11%
Mixed-use
24%
Retail
30%
Other
21%
Office
Source: CBRE Global Research and Consulting
The analysis of the breakdown of
CRE investments in 2015 shows that
Logistic Market (Other) is preferred
by investors (30%), followed by Retail
(24%), Office (21%), Hotels (14%)
and Mix-Used (11%).
Looking at the next 18 months, we
expect an even more dynamic scenario
considering:
1.
the uprising economic trend with
sizeable liquidity, low interest rates
and an improved macroeconomic
scenario;
2. the enlargement of the investors’
base, with further significant
investments by Asian players;
Chart 2: CRE investment in Italy, quarterly volumes
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Source: CBRE Global Research and Consulting
3. the increasing investors’ appetite
towards new asset classes aiming
at diversifying their risk, such as
student housing, RSA, Data Centre/
Logistic, renovated State owned
buildings.
PwC | 5
02
Key Message: Our analysis of Risk assessment
results released by EBA, shows that Italian banks’
positioning is, on average, worse than European
peers in terms of NPE ratio. The comparative Country
analysis of the NPE coverage ratios, instead, is not as
meaningful as long as we have no available data on
the NPE composition (e.g. defaulted vs past due).
European Banks’ impaired assets
analysis
The last Risk Assessment Report (“RAR”) conducted
by the European Banking Authority (“EBA”) (June
2015) provided us with significant datasets of major
European financial institutions’ asset quality.
Our analysis focuses on the impaired and past due
(>90 days) European loans, that according to the
new EBA definition (applicable starting from YE2014) are classified as Non Performing Exposure
(“NPE”) and on coverage levels of the European
banking industry.
The new EBA category includes loans which are past
due, unlikely to pay or defaulted.
The NPE/asset quality analysis for Italian assets
should be analysed in the framework of the loan
volumes dynamic of Italy versus Europe in the period
2011 - 2014 (Chart 3).
6 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
In fact, both target areas showed a significant
decrease of loan volumes. However, whereas for
European banks this decline turned into growth
during the first half of 2014, Italian banks are lagging
behind their peers and volumes are still decreasing.
The overall reduction of EU banks’ total assets,
as well as RWA, confirms a general deleveraging
occurred between 2011 and 2014, accompanied by
de-risking of balance sheets.
This suggests a turnaround in European banks’
balance sheets, passing from a deleveraging phase,
to a stabilization/growth one.
After such deleveraging period, according to EBA’s
RAR, the expectations are that asset quality will
improve and stabilize in the next 12 months. This
trend, from deleveraging to stabilization, is likely
be achieved more slowly in Italy where the abovementioned deleveraging process is in the initial phase.
Chart 3: Loan volumes trend, Italy vs Europe - (Dec 2011 = 100)
102,0%
100,0%
98,0%
€15.4tn
€1.95tn
96,0%
€14.6tn
94,0%
€1.83tn
92,0%
90,0%
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
% Change - Europe
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
% Change - Italy
Source: PwC’s analysis on EBA’s Risk Assessment Report (June 2015) and ABI Monthly Outlook (2012-2015)
Moving to the European banks’ asset quality comparison,
we can see how the quality of assets around Europe is
uneven, with banks from the most vulnerable Countries
showing the highest NPE ratios. This results from the
general economic crises from 2008 onwards, but might
also be directly influenced by differences in the legal
systems of the Countries (e.g. bankruptcy law and its
influence on time to recovery for defaulted loans, assets
repossession versus judicial sale…).
Focusing on the Italian banks’ NPE ratios, we can see how
the ratio continues to increase overcoming 20% at YE2014, while at the European level the average NPE ratio is
progressively decreasing reaching 6.6% at YE-2014.
In the near future, our expectations are that the NPE ratio
of Italian financial institutions will continue to deteriorate
(even if at a slower pace) for 1-2 years unless a stronger
deleveraging process is implemented.
We believe that the ECB will push for an acceleration
of the impaired assets offloading, especially for banks
included in SREP (Supervisory Review and Evaluation
Process) class 3 and 4.
Chart 4: NPE ratio (%)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Greece
2013-06
Italy
Spain
2013-12
EU
2014-06
France
UK
Germany
Sweden
2014-12
Source: PwC’s analysis on EBA’s Risk Assessment Report, June 2015
PwC | 7
Looking at YE-2014 NPE ratio, RAR data allows us
to analyse the NPE ratio by sector in main European
Countries. Assuming that the total lending for each type
of debtor is equal to 100%, the rate pointed out in Chart
5 represents the percentage of NPE on the three debtor
categories (SME, Large Corporate and Households) for
each Country.
At European level, the Large Corporate NPE ratio is equal
to 9.3%, the SME’s NPE ratio to 18.6% while Households
one is equal to 5.3%. As shown in Chart 5, the Italian NPE
ratio is significantly higher than the European average for
all debtors categories.
Chart 5: NPE ratio by debtor category (YE 2014)
40,0%
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
Italy
SME
Spain
EU
Large Corporates
France
Germany
UK
Sweden
Households
Source: PwC’s analysis on EBA’s Risk Assessment Report, June 2015
*SME category includes small and medium enterprises based on number of employees < 250, turnover (<50 mln) or balance sheet total (< €43 mln).
Moving to the NPE coverage ratio analysis, level of
provision for Italian banks is substantially in line with EU
one- However, the comparison is not fully meaningful as
potentially biased by NPE composition (i.e. relative weight
of past due versus unlikely to pay and defaulted).
Chart 6: NPE Coverage ratio
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
France
Spain
2013-06
2013-12
UK
2014-06
Source: PwC’s analysis on EBA’s Risk Assessment Report, June 2015
8 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
Greece
2014-12
EU
Italy
Germany
Sweden
PwC | 9
03
Key message: The growth of impaired loans,
especially Gross NPL, has been consistent throughout
the period 2008-2014 and slowed down in the first
semester of 2015. For Top 20 Italian banks both
Gross NPL ratio and NPL coverage increased over the
last six months, suggesting a conservative valuation
approach.
The NPL market in Italy
10 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
The Gross NPE volume reached the considerable size of
€337 billion in H1-2015.
Within the Gross NPE, the NPL2 count for 58% of the
total, reaching its peak at €194 billion (CAGR of 27% for
the period 2008-H1 2015), while Other NPE3 reached the
size of €143 billion at the end of 2014, remaining stable
in H1-2015.
Focusing on the NPL composition, Chart 8 highlights a
55-45% split of the Gross NPL between Unsecured vs
Secured exposures. In terms of debtors, the majority of
the Gross NPL are towards the Corporate sector (82%).
Chart 7: Trend of Gross NPE and NPL volume and ratio
400
25,0%
21.0%
350
21.8%
20,0%
17.8%
300
4.9%
100
2.5% 43
50
3.5%
2008
73
4.6%
2009
Gross NPL (€bn)
87
6.3%
79
2010
Other NPE
2011
9.8%
10,0%
7.5%
2012
2013
Gross NPL / Loans to Customers (%)
194
184
156
125
107
78
59
42
-
112
9.3%
7.8%
150
15,0%
12.5%
127 11.8%
11.3%
200
143
143
14.3%
250
2014
5,0%
H1-2015
0,0%
Gross NPE / Loans to Customers (%)
Source: PwC ‘s analysis on Bollettino Statistico Banca d’Italia and ABI Monthly Outlook
Chart 8: Breakdown of Gross NPL H1-2015
16%
2%
45%
82%
55%
Secured
Unsecured
Corporate
Retail
Other
Source: PwC’s analysis on Bollettino Statistico Banca d’Italia and ABI Monthly Outlook
2
3
In this publication Non-Performing Loans («NPL») stands for defaulted loans as per EBA definition (or «Sofferenze» as per Bank of Italy definition).
Other NPE category includes the unlikely to pay and past due loans as per EBA definition.
PwC | 11
A peer analysis among Top 20 Italian banking groups shows
that while the average Gross NPE ratio is around 18% and
the average NPE Coverage ratio is around 43%, there is a
significant variance towards the means (see Chart 9).
Chart 9: Top 20 Italian Banks - NPE peer analysis H1-2015
Gross NPE Ratio (%)
60%
DB
50%
45%
40%
Average= 42.6%
BNL
BP Sondrio
CREDEM
MPS
CR Asti
ISP
BPER
BP Vicenza
Cariparma
BPM
CreVal
BPopolare
35%
Carige
Veneto Banca
30%
NPL Coverage Ratio (%)
UCG
55%
UBI
Average= 18.3%
25%
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Source: PwC’s analysis on financial statements data as of H1-2015, with the exception of BNL and Deutsche Bank whose data refer to YE-2014
A great variance is also registered comparing Top 20
Italian banking groups with reference to the Gross NPL
ratio and the NPL Coverage ratio.
The Gross NPL ratio ranges from 1.6% of Mediobanca to
18.0% of MPS (average at 10.0%) and the NPL Coverage
ratio ranges from 38.7% of UBI and Banco Popolare to
64.4% of Banca Sella (average at 56.4%).
Chart 10: Top 20 Italian Banks - NPL peer analysis H1-2015
Gross NPL Ratio (%)
80%
75%
ISP
DB
65%
60%
55%
Mediobanca
CREDEM
Banca Sella
BP Sondrio
BNL
Cariparma
MPS
UCG
CR Asti Carige
CreVal
Average= 56.4%
BPM
50%
BPER
BP Vicenza
Veneto Banca
Banco Desio
45%
40%
UBI
35%
NPL Coverage Ratio (%)
70%
BPopolare
Average= 10%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Source: PwC’s analysis on financial statements as of H1-2015, with the exception of BNL and Deutsche Bank whose data refer to YE-2014
12 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
20%
With reference to Top 10 banks, the first semester showed
a slight increase on the average Gross NPL ratio (from
9.7% as for YE 2014 to 9.9% as for H1-2015) and a
decrease on the NPL Coverage ratio (from 55.4% as of YE
2014 to 54.9% H1-2015).
Major movements in terms of NPL Coverage ratio and
Gross NPL ratio have been registered by Banco Popolare
and MPS.
Chart 11: Top 10 banks NPL movements (H1-2015 vs YE-2014)
Gross NPL Ratio (%)
MPS
ISP
65%
60%
Mediobanca
NPL Coverage Ratio (%)
UCG
Cariparma
BPER
BPM
55%
Average= 54.9%
50%
45%
UBI
40%
35%
BPopolare
Average= 9.9%
1%
3%
5%
7%
11%
9%
13%
15%
17%
Source: PwC’s analysis on financial statements as of H1-2015 vs YE-2014. For Deutsche Bank and BNL no comparable data is available
The remaining Top 20 banks showed a more significant
increase in terms of both the average Gross NPL ratio
(1.2%, from 9.2% as for YE 2014 to 10.4% as for H1-2015)
and of the NPL Coverage ratio (1.5%, from 55.1% as of YE
2014 to 56.6% as for H1-2015).
Chart 12: Top 20 banks NPL movements (H1-2015 vs YE-2014)
Gross NPL Ratio (%)
70%
CREDEM
CR Asti
60%
55%
Average= 56.6%
NPL Coverage Ratio (%)
Banca Sella
BP Sondrio
65%
Carige
CreVal
BP Vicenza
50%
Veneto Banca
45%
40%
Desio
35%
Average= 10.4%
30%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
Source: PwC’s analysis on financial statements as of H1-2015 vs YE-2014. For Deutsche Bank and BNL no comparable data is available
PwC | 13
04
Recent market activity and outlook
With almost €12 billion of assets sold in the market
in the first 9 months, 2015 is definitively meeting our
expectations of being the year for the Italian NPL and
non core market Renaissance.
As per last year’s trend, transactions have been
characterized by the disposal of consumer credit
and unsecured loans, even though we start seeing
also mixed secured/unsecured bank portfolios being
sold together with other asset classes such as leasing
contracts and repossessed assets. We think this is
a timid sign of a new path, where interest for the
underlying RE assets are emerging.
14 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
Major Italian Banking Groups have been the main
actors in the NPL market together with Consumer
Credit financial institutions:
•
Unicredit Group sold a face value in excess of €4.8
bn together with UCCMB platform (spanning from
unsecured NPL to mixed secured/unsecured NPL
and leasing/repossessed assets);
•
MPS Group sold its non performing consumer
credit portfolio (€1 bn) and;
•
Banco Popolare sold €1.1 bn of its unsecured NPL
book.
Chart 13: NPL market transactions volume trend (closed deals)
€12 bn
bn
10
9
€8 bn
8
0.6
0.2
7
1.8
6
€5 bn
5
4
1.2
0.6
0.1
€4 bn
2.6
1.8
3
2.1
2
1
-
4.7
4.3
3.1
2.9
1.6
2012
Consumer
Unsecured
2013
Mainly Unsecured
2014
Mixed Secured/Unsecured
Q3’15
Secured
Other
Source: PwC market analysis
Looking forward, while waiting for the potential bad bank
set up, there are several transactions in the pipeline for
an overall face value in excess of €10 bn including the
disposal of MPS’s unsecured NPL portfolio and Intesa San
Paolo consumer credit performing assets.
On the other hand, the investors’ base is consolidating
its appetite towards Italian assets and the Country risk,
opening up to some new forms of partnerships with
financial institutions.
The need to actively manage the NPE before they reach
the NPL status is likely to be a key focus for major Italian
banks in the next coming years. This is certainly the case
for Intesa San Paolo, which set up the Capital Light Bank
in Q4 2014 with the aim of extracting value from the noncore perimeter.
We interviewed Mr Carlo Viola from Capital Light Bank
and he confirmed us the importance of having industrial
partners who will be able to help the banking system in the
management of exposures towards companies who felt in
financial difficulties and where there is the need to provide
fresh money and change management. He told us: “the
partnership with Pillarstone (KKR) is the first example of
what we believe is a new path for managing positions in
the pre-NPL phase. Obviously the bank - he continues - is
not only focused in reducing the new flows of NPL, but
also in decreasing its stock of NPL.
With respect to that, in 2015 we have seen (and we
expect to continue to see) significant improvements in
the recovery performance thanks to the revised recovery
business model based on a new portfolio segmentation
and specialisation. Together with internal performance
improvements, the bank clearly aims at reducing its NPL
stock through disposal processes. We are starting with two
relatively small portfolios (one in Italy and one abroad)
but we aim at doing more in the near future”.
With a different angle, also Mr Paolo Tosi from Banco
Popolare underlined that partnerships with investors
might play an important role in finding effective solutions
for the NPL burden.
He in fact told us “in order to solve one of the most
problematic asset class in Italy, the secured NPL, Italian
banks need to work with investors to find possible
solutions, including potential JV”.
PwC | 15
He continues, “looking at experiences occurred abroad and
thinking at the deleverage strategies Italian banks have
in their next years’ business plans there is a need to find
potential solutions with a medium / long term horizon,
working together with investors on possible ways to build
industrial partnerships, especially in the management of the
RE assets, where some investors might have an hedge”.
Over the last couple of years we feel we have made good
progress in bringing many new asset classes to the market
but looking forward, our focus, and the market’s focus,
needs to be on the SME loans, secured and unsecured,
which represents the largest component of the impaired
loan stock in the Italian system.
More needs to be done by the stakeholders; banks,
servicers, investors and regulators to take actions and
invest in process that will narrow the present bid/offer
gap presently existing in this asset class and create a
competitive and active market like we presently see in
consumer unsecured”.
Some movements in the right direction are registered
by Mr Enrico Maria Fagioli from MPS. He confirms us
the increasing investors’ interest on the RE assets, where
he says “there have been and there will continue to be
plain vanilla secured NPL transactions but, from my
observatory, investors are very keen at looking at more
complex situations where a clear interest is focused on the
underlying RE asset”.
He then opens up the issue at the NPE level: “for those
assets which do not have an NPL status yet there is a need
for industrial restructuring and clear signs of discontinuity
with the past management (change of control, etc.) and
equity investors might be really key in the turnaround
process.
Considering current market dynamics and the deals
pipeline we foresee the sparkling situation which
characterized the first half of the year is likely to continue
throughout the year and further improve over next year.
We expect transaction volumes in FY16 to be in the range
of €20bn GBV, with some relevant deals to deploy in the
first half of the year. In terms of asset classes we expect a
boost in secured/leasing transactions (both portfolios and
single names) that will add up to a persistently dynamic
unsecured loans market.
This is true both for single tickets and for small pool of
assets. In order to facilitate that, it would then be ideal for
banks with a stake in these companies to pull together their
exposures to increase investors’ interest”.
A further interesting insight on what we should expect
in the NPL market in Italy comes from Mr Jose Brena
from Unicredit. We interviewed him asking his view on
the outlook for the next years and he told us: “Assuming
present market conditions, Unicredit will maintain its
strategy to sell on a yearly basis €2-3 bn of impaired loans. In addition we foresee an increasing number of structured
transactions, where portfolio sales - necessary to improve
the NPE ratio - will be combined with platform deals and
/ or long term servicing contracts in connection with the
need of the banks to find an “industrial” solution to the
heavy burden of deteriorated assets under management.
Another trend we expect is the development of multi
originator platform structures where the bad bank /
asset management company promoted by the Italian
Government is the main but not the only project in
pipeline.
However, we are constantly evaluating the market to
identify and execute on opportunities to accelerate
disposals.
Table 1: 2015 main public NPL transactions
Date
Seller
2015 Q3
Banco Popolare
2015 Q3
Unicredit
2015 Q3
Multiple sellers BCC
320 Mixed Secured/Unsecured
CRC
2015 Q2
Unicredit
625 Unsecured
PRA
2015 Q2
UniCredit
205 Leasing - Repossed Assets
Cerberus
2015 Q2
Banco Popolare
210 Unsecured
Hoist Finance
2015 Q2
MPS Consum.it
1,000 Consumer
Banca IFIS
2015 Q2
Seer Capital Management
400 Consumer
Banca IFIS
2015 Q2
Banca Sella
33 Consumer
Banca IFIS
2015 Q2
Confidential
200 Consumer
Banca IFIS
2015 Q2
Santander Bank
230 Consumer
Banca IFIS
2015 Q1
National Asset Management Agency
182 CRE
Invel Real Estate Partners
2015 Q1
Sofigeco
408 Secured
PVE Capital
2015 Q1
Findomestic
2015 Q1
Unicredit
Source: PwC market analysis
16 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
Volume
Type of portfolio
950 Unsecured
1,200 Mainly Unsecured
400 Consumer
2,400 Platform & Mixed Sec/Unsec
Buyer
Hoist Finance
Anacap
Banca IFIS
Fortress+Prelios
PwC | 17
Appendix - Top 10 Banks peer analysis (1|4)
1/4
Gross NPL volume (€bn)
54.7
53.9
60
50
20
40
60
10
30
50
200
40
1/4
49.0
54.7
40
60
30
50
1/4
38.6
38.2
34.6
49.0
38.6
25.4
24.3
21.6
54.7 34.6
25.4
49.0
38.6
UCG
ISP
10
30
0
20
UBI
25.4
UCG
ISP
MPS
20
10
25
15
5
20
10
0
15
5
10
0
60
80
6.8
5.8 7.1
5.5 6.5
6.7
BPopolare
8.9
10.2
BNL
5.8
BPER
5.5
UCG
18.7
20.6
20.4 20.6
18.7
ISP
13.0
6.8
MPS
BPopolare
8.9
10.2
Mediobanca
5.5
BPopolare
BNL
8.9
4.2
5.5
ISP 14.3
13.0
2.4
MPS
UBI
4.0 4.2
BPER
2.5
62.3 62.5
6.0 6.3
5.5
BPopolare
BNL
BPER
2.4 2.7
2.5 2.8 2.9
MPS
63.1
MPS
UBI
58.8
64.3
63.1
58.8
64.3
60
0
20
61.8 62.2 62.3 62.5 62.8 63.1
UCG
ISP
65.3 64.3
58.8
MPS
4.2
6.3
BPopolare
5.5
BNL
2.4
UBI
BPopolare
Mediobanca
BPER
2.5
BNL
0
20
2.7
CRParma
2.2
2.7
CRParma
2.5
3.2
BPM
2.5
3.2
BPM
Mediobanca
41.6
38.7
37.9
UCG
ISP
MPS
UCG
ISP
MPS
41.6
38.7
62.0
BPopolare
43.0
BNL
UBI
BPopolare
UBI
BPopolare
38.7
37.9
1.1
0.3
Mediobanca
1.5
CRParma
BPM
1.0 1.1 1.1
1.1 1.3 1.5
CRParma
BPM
1.0
1.1
CRParma
1.1
1.5
BPM
56.9 57.8
57.7
56.3
57.8
55.5
54.9
56.9 57.8
57.7
56.3
57.8
55.5
54.9
55.7
38.7
59.1
UBI
1.1
55.7
38.7
59.1
37.9
1.0
2.9
BPER
59.1
41.6 38.8
40
0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3
80
20
40
2.2
2.9
0.3
61.8
0.6
Mediobanca
NPL Coverage ratio (%)
40
60
0.6
Mediobanca
9.0
3.3
ISP
BPM
6.7
0.3
3.3
ISP
62.3 62.5
CRParma
6.3
8.9 8.4 9.0
UCG
3.2
2.5 3.1
9.0
3.3
8.9
61.8
2.7
2.2 2.6
14.3
18.7
UCG
5.8
BPER
0.7
UBI
14.2 14.3
20.6 13.0
UCG
BNL
0.6
6.7
0.7
5.9
5
80
0
10.5
10.2
8.9
0.7 0.6
5.9
UBI
Net NPL volume (€bn)
25
15
6.8
21.6
10
25
0
20
6.6
21.6
MPS
34.6
5.9
56.5 56.9 57.8 58.0 57.7
56.3 56.5 57.8
55.5 55.9 54.9
BPER
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
BNL
BPER
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
BNL
BPER
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
38.7
55.7
20
0
15
20
18.0
10.6
10
15
9.3
8.9
14.7
13.9
14.7
6.4
10.6
8.9
9.3
10.2
10.9
9.7
20
5
10
11.6
18.0
10.2
8.4
11.6
BPopolare
9.7
7.6
7.0
7.2
7.0
7.2
10.9
9.7
14.7YE-2014 and YE-2013 results
Source:
7.6
15 PwC’s analysis on companies H1-2015,
6.4
0
UCG 10.6
ISP | A sparkling
MPS H1-2015
UBI
18 |5The Italian
NLP market
10.2
10
9.3
8.9
13.9
5.6
11.6
18.0
9.0
8.4
7.6
BNL
8.4
13.9
BPER
10.9
1.6
Mediobanca
1.6
9.0
1.6
1.6
5.6
CRParma
BPM
9.0
7.0
7.2
41.6
40
61.8
60
62.3 62.5
63.1
38.7
64.3
58.8
55.7
38.7
37.9
59.1
56.9 57.8
57.7
57.8
56.3
55.5
20
54.9
Appendix - Top 10 Banks peer analysis (2|4)
40
80
41.6
0
UCG
61.8
20
60
ISP
62.3 62.5
63.1
MPS
58.8
64.3
Gross NPL ratio (%)
0
40
20
UCG
15
20
10
MPS
BPopolare
BNL
BPER
59.1
38.7
UBI
38.7
37.9
BPopolare
Mediobanca
56.9 57.8
BPER
13.3
10.3 10.2
10.4 10.6
ISP
MPS 18.0
9.3
8.9
UCG
12.0 11.6
9.7
BPopolare
UBI
6.4
14.7
7.3 7.6
BNL
10.4
8.4
10.9
BPER
9.3
8.9
UCG
10.2
Mediobanca
18.0
ISP
MPS
UBI
6.4
7.6
BPopolare
9.3
UCG
ISP
MPS
6.8
UBI
6.4
7.8
BPopolare
3.7
UCG
3.8
ISP
BPER
BNL
6.8
7.8
BPopolare
7.5
BNL
UBI
3.9
57.6
60
7.8
UBI
30
BNL
3.7
20
45
10
40
350
30
25
41.1
UCG
36.1
ISP
MPS
3.7
BNL
12.7
13.4
19.2
BNL
BPopolare
BNL
0.7 0.7 0.7
BPER
4.3
Mediobanca
BPER
CRParma 3.4 BPM
3.1
21.0
0.7
Mediobanca
BPER
2.4
Mediobanca
3.9
BPM
5.1
CRParma
11.2
10.3
1.8
UBI
CRParma
11.2
10.3
BPopolare
6.1
5.3
BPM
BNL
BPER
2.4
Mediobanca
6.1
5.3
5.1
3.9
CRParma
BPM
20.9
11.012.3
10.3 11.0 11.2
33.6
MPS
3.4
20.9
11.0
19.2 21.8
3.1 3.1
20.9
11.0
19.2
BPM 4.2 4.3
CRParma
2.7
1.8
13.4
BPM
2.7
0.7
Mediobanca
5.3
BPopolare
12.7 13.113.4
ISP
BPER
3.4
CRParma
3.1
6.7
BPopolare
UBI
41.5
31.1
0.7
5.3
0.7
45.3 46.2
UCG
1.6
Mediobanca
63.8
50
10
40
0
CRParma
7.2 BPM
7.0
2.7
63.0 63.8
57.6
60
20
1.6
6.4
0
46.2 UBI
ISP
MPS
10050 UCG
40
36.1
90
Gross85.5
NPE volume
(€bn)
85.8
30
80
20
12.7
70
63.8
10
57.6
60
100
0
87.2
50
90
UCG
ISP
MPS 46.2 UBI
85.8
85.5
40
80
36.1
70
30
5.6
6.4 6.7
4.4
BPopolare
3.9
MPS
Mediobanca
BPER
4.9
4.1
5.6
7.2
BPM
4.3
6.4
6.4
2
6
4.3
0100
3.8
3.7
4 90 UCG
ISP
85.8
85.5
80
2 70
CRParma7.0
3.7
UBI
MPS
BPER
5.3
3.9
MPS
4.2 4.1
ISP
3.8
7.2
6.7 7.0
1.6
6.7
4.7 4.9
UCG
4.3 4.3
Mediobanca
1.6
6.4
6.8 7.1 6.4
3.7
BPM8.8 9.0
9.0
8.4
4.9
4.1
2
0
7.6
6.4
6
4.3
CRParma
1.6 1.7 1.6
10.9
9.7
10
4
8
BPM
13.9
10.2
Net NPL Ratio (%)
8
54.9
9.0
8.4
BNL
11.6
10.6
8.9
04
CRParma
5.6
10.9
9.7
14.7
8
55.5
13.9
13.9
11.6
10.6
10
0
BPM
57.8
56.3
57.7
Mediobanca
5
0
CRParma
55.7
BNL
14.7
10
6
10
55.7
38.7
37.9
18.0
17.0
15
5
5
UBI
41.6
ISP
20
15
200
10
38.7
BPopolare
BNL
BPER
1.8 2.4 2.4
3.9 5.0 5.1
5.3 5.9 6.1
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
1.0
2.3
Mediobanca
CRParma
23.7
20
14.1
14.1
45
41.1
41.5
15
9.7
9.3
40
5
33.6
35
31.1
0
30
Source:
PwC’s
analysis
H1-2015,
YE-2014
45
UCG
ISP
MPS
UBI results BPopolare
23.7and YE-2013
41.1
41.5 on companies
21.0
25
40
33.6
20
35
14.1
14.1
31.1
15
9.7
9.3
30
23.7
6.2
BNL
6.4
6.5
BPER
3.1
3.7
3.4
BPM
PwC | 19
6.5
10
30
20
0
200
10
10
0
0
UCG
UCG
ISP
ISP
MPS
MPS
UCG
UCG
ISP
ISP
MPS
MPS
13.4
12.7
UBI
12.7
UBI 13.4
UBI
UBI
19.2
19.2
1.8
1.8
20.9
20.9
11.0
BPopolare
BPopolare 11.0BNL
BNL
BPopolare
BPopolare
BNL
BNL
11.2
10.3BPER
11.2
10.3 BPER
3.9
3.9
2.4
2.4
6.1
5.3
5.1
Mediobanca
BPM
6.1
Mediobanca 3.9 CRParma
CRParma
5.3 BPM
5.1
2.4
6.1
5.3
5.1
1.8
1.8
BPER
BPER
3.9
2.4
Mediobanca
Mediobanca
CRParma
CRParma
BPM
BPM
Appendix - Top 10 Banks peer analysis (3|4)
45
41.1
41.5
Net
(€bn)
45 NPE
41.1 volume
41.5
40
40
45
35
45
35
40
30
40
30
35
35
25
25
30
30
20
20
25
25
15
15
20
20
55
15
15
00
5
5
0
0
41.1
41.5
41.1 42.6 41.5 31.1
31.1
33.6
33.6
33.6
31.133.6 33.6
31.1
23.7
23.7
21.0
21.0
23.7
21.023.1 23.7
21.0
9.7
9.7
9.3
9.3
9.7
9.3
9.3 9.5 9.7
UCG
UCG
ISP
ISP
MPS
MPS
UCG
UCG
ISP
ISP
MPS
MPS
UBI
UBI
UBI
UBI
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.114.3 14.1
BPopolare
BPopolare
BPopolare
BPopolare
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.2
6.2 6.4
6.5
6.4
6.4 6.5 6.5
BNL
BNL
BPER
BPER
BNL
BNL
BPER
BPER
2.3
2.3
1.0
1.0
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.4
1.0Mediobanca
Mediobanca
1.0 1.2
3.7
3.4
3.1
2.3CRParma
3.7
BPM
3.4 3.6
3.1
CRParma
BPM
2.3 3.0
Mediobanca
Mediobanca
CRParma
CRParma
3.7
3.7
BPM
BPM
NPE Coverage ratio (%)
60
60
60
50
60
50
50
40
50
40
40
30
40
30
30
30
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
00
0
0
51.7
51.7
51.7
47.3
51.1 51.7
47.3
51.7
48.948.8
48.8
51.7
51.7 46.0 46.747.3
46.0
51.7
41.8
47.3
41.8 48.8
46.0
48.8
41.8
46.0
41.8
UCG
UCG
UCG
UCG
ISP
ISP
ISP
ISP
MPS
MPS
MPS
MPS
48.1
43.6
43.6
43.6
34.2 32.4 43.6
32.4
27.327.8 26.9
26.5
27.8 26.9 32.4
26.5
32.4
27.8 26.9
26.5
27.8 26.9
26.5
UBI
UBI
UBI
UBI
51.6
51.6
49.1
44.0
51.6
41.8 44.051.6
40.7 41.8
37.3
37.3 41.8 44.0
44.0
41.8
37.3
37.3
BPopolare
BPopolare BNL
BNL
BPopolare
BNL
BPopolare
BNL
BPER
BPER
BPER
BPER
24.8 23.7
23.7
23.7
21.0
21.0 23.7
21.0
21.0
23.2
22.6 23.2
23.2
20.3
20.3 23.2
20.3
20.3
40.1
40.1 38.639.8
39.8
40.1
40.1
39.8
39.8
39.5
38.7 39.5
36.0
36.0
39.5
39.5
36.0
36.0
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Gross NPE ratio (%)
35
35
35
35
30
30
30
30
25
25
25
25
20
20
20
20
15
15
15
15
10
10
10
10
55
5
5
00
0
0
32.8
32.8
31.732.8
32.8
24.5
24.5
24.5
24.5
16.9 16.6
17.2 16.9
16.9
16.6
15.6
16.9
15.6
16.6 15.4
15.4
15.6
16.9
15.4
16.6
15.6
15.4
13.7
13.7
13.7
13.7
14.614.9
14.9
14.9
14.9
18.0
15.9
15.9
15.9
15.9
6.3 6.1
6.1
6.1
4.4
4.4
6.1
4.4
4.4
UCG
UCG
UCG
UCG
ISP
ISP
ISP
ISP
MPS
MPS
MPS
MPS
UBI
UBI
UBI
UBI
BPopolare
BNL
BPopolare BNL
BNL
BPopolare
BPopolare
BNL
BPER
BPER
BPER
BPER
17.0 16.9
16.9
15.0
16.9
15.0
13.1
16.9
12.6 13.115.0
13.1 15.0
10.2
10.213.1
10.2
10.2
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Mediobanca CRParma
CRParma BPM
BPM
Mediobanca
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Net NPE ratio (%)
25
25
25
25
20
20
20
20
19.3
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
15
15
15
15
10
10
10
10
9.1 8.7
8.7
8.7
8.2
8.2
8.2
8.7
8.2
17.6
18.0 17.6
17.6
16.3
16.3
16.3 17.6
16.3
16.8
16.8
16.8
16.8
11.3
11.3
11.1 11.3
10.5
10.5
10.5 11.3
10.5
9.9 9.8
9.8
9.8
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.8
9.0
15.1
15.1
14.9 15.1
13.9
13.9
13.9 15.1
13.9
9.7
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.7
555
5
000
0
3.3 3.13.1
2.52.5
2.5 3.1 3.1
2.5
UCG
UCG
UCG
UCG
ISP
ISP
ISP
MPS
MPS
MPS
MPS
UBI
UBI
UBI
UBI
Source: PwC’s analysis on companies H1-2015, YE-2014 and YE-2013 results
20 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
400
400
400
BPopolare
BNL
BPopolare
BNL
BPopolare BNL
BNL
BPopolare
BPER
BPER
BPER
BPER
11.2 11.011.0
11.0
10.210.2
10.211.0
8.4
8.2 8.4 8.410.2
8.4
6.4 6.4
6.4
6.4
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Mediobanca
CRParma
BPM
Mediobanca CRParma
CRParma BPM
BPM
Mediobanca
20
15
15
10
25
8.7
8.2
16.0
9.8
9.0
16.8
10.5
9.8
9.0
10.5
13.9
17.6
11.3 16.3
9.7
15.1
13.9
11.3
8.4
6.4
9.7
Appendix - Top 10 Banks peer analysis (4|4)
105
20
50
15
8.7
8.2
16.0
UCG
ISP
16.8
MPS
16.3
UBI
0
9.8
9.0
10
UCG
ISPProvision
MPS
Yearly
Loan8.7Loss
/ Net
8.2
17.6
10.5
UBI
Interest
11.3
BPopolare
BPopolare
Margin
(%)
BNL
9.7
BNL
15.1
13.9
BPER
2.5
3.1
2.5
3.1
Mediobanca
BPER
Mediobanca
8.4
11.0
10.2
11.0
10.2
6.4
CRParma
CRParma
8.4
BPM
11.0
10.2
BPM
6.4
5
400
0
350
400
300
350
250
300
200
250
150
400
200
100
350
150
50
300
100
0
250
50
200
0
150
366.5
UCG
ISP
MPS
68.90
129.4
41.831.5
114.334.6 32.4
68.90
UCG 32.4
ISP
UCG
ISP
UCG
85.3
53.9 51.1
45.9 101.0
53.9
UBI
MPS
45.9
UBI
129.4
BPER
Mediobanca
144.5
ISP
MPS
47.6
BPopolare
54.3 59.5
60.6 62.9
57.6 53.7
47.8
41.1
52.9
54.3
60.6
52.9
BNL
BNL
BPER 47.8
BPER
57.6
Mediobanca
41.1
Mediobanca
68.0
41.534.0
51.2 45.6
68.0
CRParma
34.0
BPM 45.6
CRParma
BPM
47.6
45.9
UBI
BPopolare
60.6
54.3
BNL
47.8
BPER
57.6
41.1
Mediobanca
52.9
68.0
45.6
34.0
CRParma
BPM
96.5
40.1
41.0
31.2
29.1
40.1 41.3 41.0
UCG
MPS
ISP
96.5
MPS
UBI
BPopolare
BPopolare
48.6
57.6
3.9
BNL
BPER
BNL
Mediobanca
3.9
ISP
MPS
21.0 23.9 24.6
UBI
33.6
31.2
31.2 29.6 33.6
CRParma
BPM
CRParma
BPM
24.6
21.0
20
UCG
3.0
Mediobanca
3.9
3.4 3.0
61.0
BPER 57.6
24.6
21.0
42.4
33.2
31.2
29.1
61.0
57.6
69.9
74.6
67.6
UBI
42.4
42.4
42.2
41.0
7
33.2
67.6
61.0
74.4 74.6
41.1 42.2
33.2
29.131.931.2
ISP
42.2
144.5
74.6
67.6
96.5
40.1
65
BPM
144.5 141.6
UCG
76
0
CRParma
101.0
53.9
31.5
47.6
BPopolare
85.3
Net
NPL/Equity
(%)
50
32.4
40
BNL
101.0
85.3
MPS
31.5
68.90
60
BPopolare
129.4
114.3
100
80
0
UBI
223.3
114.3
160
0
140
160
120
140
100
120
80
100
60
160
80
40
140
60
20
120
40
0
100
20
3.1
2.5
BPopolare
BNL
BPER
33.6
31.2
3.0
Mediobanca
CRParma
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.3
BPM
Cost of Risk* (%)
54
43
7
61.8
32
6
61.8
0.8
10
4
0.8
2
1
0
1.9
1.4
21
5
0
3
2.16.5
1.9
0.8
1.9
2.1
1.4
UCG
61.8
UCG
ISP
ISP
1.9
0.9 0.8
YE 2013
UBI
MPS
UBI
2.1
YE 2014
YE 2013
ISP
1.1
MPS
1.2 YE 2014
0.8
YE 2013
UCG
0.8
MPS
YE 2014
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.9
4.4
H1
2015
1.1 1.1
0.9
1.7
1.4
0.9
BPopolare
BNL
BPopolare
BNL
1.9
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.4
1.6
Mediobanca
0.6
CRParma
BPER
Mediobanca
CRParma
1.7 1.9
0.9
BPopolare
BNL
0.6
BPER
1.4
1.5 1.6
1.2
H1 2015
UBI
1.7
BPER
Mediobanca
1.3
1.0
1.7
1.0
BPM
BPM
1.7
1.0
1.3
0.6
CRParma
1.0
BPM
H1 2015
*Cost of risk = yearly loan loss provisions / Net Customer Loans
Source: PwC’s analysis on companies H1-2015, YE-2014 and YE-2013 results
PwC | 21
Appendix - Other Top 20 Banks peer analysis (1|4)
Gross NPL volume (€bn)
Gross NPL volume (€bn)
5,0
4.1
4,0
3.4
3.3
2.8NPL volume3.1
3,0
Gross
(€bn)
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.2
1.6
4.1
Gross2.8NPL volume (€bn)
2,0
4,0
1.8
1.9
0.7 0.8 0.9
1.2
4,0
1,0
3,0
0,0
5,0
2.7
2.5
5,0
2,0
3.3
2.6
BP Vicenza
Carige
4.1
2.8
0,0
2,0
2,0
BP Vicenza
Net NPL volume2.6(€bn)
Carige
1.8
Net
1,0 NPL
1.6 volume (€bn)
1,5
1.4
0.8
3.2
2.7
0.9 1.0
0.8
0.4 0.7
BP Sondrio
1.8
3.2
CreVal
1.9
CREDEM
0.7
1.2
0.9
DB
Banca
Sella
1.3
0.8
2.7
Banco Desio
1.0
2.7
Veneto
Banca
BP Sondrio
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.9
CreVal
CREDEM
0.7
1.2
0.9
DB
1.3
Banca
Sella
0.8
1,0
2,0
0,5
1,5
BP Vicenza
1.6
1.7
1.2
Carige
1.8
1.4
Net NPL volume (€bn)
0,0
2,0
1,0
Veneto
Banca
1.2
BP Vicenza
1.8
1.5 1.5
BP Sondrio
1.7
0.7
1.2
CreVal
Banco Desio
1.0
Carige
1.6
0.8
0.5
0.3
Veneto
Banca 1.7
1.4
1.5
BP Sondrio
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.1
NPL
Coverage ratio (%)
1,0
0,0
50
0,0
40
56.8
Carige
56.3
NPL Coverage
BP Vicenza ratio
Carige(%)
30
Veneto
Banca
0.3 0.3
BP Sondrio
0.7
62.1
59.4
0.5
Veneto
Banca
Carige
58.6
56.8
56.3
50.1ratio (%)
Gross
NPL
10
50
0
40
16
30
14
20
12
10
BP Vicenza
13.7
Carige
13.2
168
146
BP Vicenza
124
Gross
NPL ratio (%)
CreVal
59.2
0.4
CREDEM
58.1
57.9
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.5
Banca
Sella
0.3 0.3
13.2
0.4
Banco Desio
0.2
0.4 0.4
66.5
DB
Banca64.4
Sella
58.9
0.3
0.4
0.4
Banco Desio
0.2
0.4
0.9
0.6
CR Asti
0.4
0.3
CR Asti
0.3 0.3
0.4
Veneto
Banca
BP Sondrio
59.4 61.1
CreVal
59.2
CREDEM
62.1
Banca
Sella 64.4
Banco Desio
66.5
DB
62.6
56.0
Banca 64.4
64.2
Sella
Banco
Desio
CREDEM
DB
CR Asti
60.3
CR Asti
59.9
58.9
55.8
CreVal
60.3
0.4
44.1
39.5
39.5
BP Sondrio
59.9
0.3
59.9
58.9
58.1 58.6 59.2
57.9
47.8 48.5
Veneto
Banca
DB
66.5
CR Asti
44.1
55.8
Banca
Sella
60.2 60.3
44.1
38.9
Banco
Desio
CR Asti
13.1
Veneto
Banca
11.3
11.1
BP Sondrio
8.8
CreVal
CREDEM
6.7
DB
6.3
4.6
11.0
2
10
9.6
9.5
160
8.5
8
BP Vicenza
Carige
Veneto
BP Sondrio
13.7
6.7
14
Banca
13.2
6
4.6
12 PwC’s analysis on companies H1-2015, YE-2014 and YE-2013
Source:
results
11.0
4
10
9.6
9.5
22 |2The 8.5
Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015
8
0
6.7
BP Vicenza
Carige
Veneto 6.6
BP Sondrio
6.6
76
6.2
Net NPL ratio (%)
58.1
0.3
62.1
9.6
Carige
13.7
DB
11.0
9.5
8.5
0.4
CREDEM
48.5
44.7
44.7
Gross
NPL ratio (%)
10
0
0.4
55.8
BP Sondrio
58.3
43.1
0.8
CreVal
57.9
59.4
56.3
30
70
20
60
0.3
39.5
70
20
0
43.1
NPL
Coverage ratio (%)
40
CREDEM
0.8
48.5
44.7
NPL
Coverage
58.3
60
56.8 ratio (%)
10
BP Vicenza
0.4
Banco Desio
CR Asti
1.2
58.3
43.1
50
0.4
Banca
Sella
0.9
0.6
1.2
CreVal
1.2
70
0,5
60
DB
0.8
0.4
CR Asti
1.3
1,5
0,5
BP Vicenza
CREDEM
0.8
0.4
Net NPL volume (€bn)
0,0
0.9
0.6 0.8
2.7
Veneto
Banca
3.3
1,0
3,0
1.3 1.3
13.1
3.6
8.5
Banca
Sella
8.7
Banco
Desio7.8
5.3
4.2
11.3
11.1
8.8
CREDEM
DB
6.3
13.1
3.6
Banca
Sella
4.2
Banco
7.8
CREDEM
11.3
11.1
6.3DB
Banca
CR Asti
5.3 Desio
8.7
8.5
8.8
CreVal
8.7
8.5
CreVal
CR Asti
7.8
5.3
Banco
CR Asti
50
30
40
30
40
20
30
20
30
10
20
10
20
00
10
10
44.7
44.7
43.1
43.1
44.1
39.5
39.5
Appendix - Other Top 20 Banks peer analysis (2|4)
00
BP
BP Vicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
BP
BPVicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
Gross NPL ratio (%)
Gross
NPL
Gross
NPLratio
ratio(%)
(%)
16
16
Gross NPL
NPL ratio
ratio (%)
Gross
(%)
16
14
16
14
13.7
13.7
14
12
14
12
13.7
13.7
10
12
12
10
88
10
10
868
6
11.0
11.0
9.6
9.611.0
11.0
9.6
9.6
00
BP
BPSondrio
Sondrio CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
BP
BP Vicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
BP
BPVicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
6.6
6.6
6.6
5.1
5.1 6.0 6.6
5.1
5.1
6.2
6.2
4.5
4.5 5.4
6.2
6.2
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
13.1
13.1
8.5
8.5
8.8
8.811.9
6.7
6.7
6.1
8.8
8.8
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
6.7
6.7
3.6
3.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
4.2
4.2
BP
BPVicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
CR
CRAsti
Asti
CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
BP
BPSondrio
Sondrio CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
6.6
6.6
8.7
8.7
7.8
7.8
5.3
5.3
6.9
5.3
5.3
8.7
8.7
11.3
11.3
11.3
10.7 11.3
7.8
7.8
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
CR
CR Asti
Asti
CR
CRAsti
Asti
6.4
6.4
6.6
6.2 6.6
5.8
4.0
4.0
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
11.1
11.1
6.3
6.3 6.4
6.4
6.4
3.7
3.7
2.7
4.0
2.7 4.0
Carige
Carige
CR
CR Asti
Asti
4.2
4.2
3.6
3.6 3.6
BP
BP Sondrio
Sondrio
4.5
4.5
BP
BP Vicenza
Vicenza
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
11.1
11.1
9.9
8.5
8.5
6.3
6.3
4.6
4.6
Net
Net NPL
NPL ratio
ratio (%)
(%)
00
DB
DB
4.6
4.6
Net
NPL
Net
NPL
ratio
(%)
Net
NPLratio
ratio(%)
(%)
77
6
76
7
655
6
544
5
433
4
322
3
211
2
100
1
CREDEM
CREDEM
12.2
646
4
424
2
0
202
CreVal
CreVal
13.1
13.1
13.2
13.2
9.5
9.5
8.5
8.5
BP
BP Sondrio
Sondrio
13.2
13.2
9.5
9.511.7
11.1
8.5
8.5
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
1.9
1.9 2.6 2.7
2.7
1.6
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.6 1.5 1.7
1.7
BP
BP Sondrio
Sondrio
1.7
1.7
3.9
3.7
3.7
2.2
2.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
3.4
3.4
4.6
4.6
5.1
5.1
4.6
4.6
5.1
3.7
3.7 4.7 5.1
3.7
3.7
3.4
3.4
2.5
2.2
2.2
CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
BP
BPSondrio
Sondrio CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
CR
CR Asti
Asti
CR
CRAsti
Asti
Gross
Gross NPE
NPE volume
volume (€
(€ bn)
bn)
Gross
GrossNPE
NPEvolume
volume(€
(€bn)
bn)
Gross NPE volume (€ bn)
88
7.6
7.6
8778
7.6
6.5 7.6
766
7
55
66
544
5
433
4
322
3
1
21
2
100
1
00
5.4
5.4
6.8
6.8
6.5
5.7
6.8
6.8
5.7
5.4
5.4
5.7
5.7
6.8
6.8
4.9
4.9
6.8
5.6 6.8
4.9
4.9
BP
BP Vicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
BP
BPVicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
Net NPE volume (€bn)
5
44
33
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
BP
BP Sondrio
Sondrio
3.4
3.4
4.1
4.1
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3 1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
BP
BPSondrio
Sondrio CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
1.8
1.8
2.1 2.2
2.2
BP
BPVicenza
Vicenza
Carige
Carige
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
0.7
0.7
1.4
1.2 1.4
1.4
1.4
0.7
0.7
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
Banco
Banco
Desio
Desio
1.3
1.3 1.3
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
CR
CR Asti
Asti
CR
CRAsti
Asti
3.3
3.3
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.2
0.8
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Carige
Carige
1.4 1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
3.3
3.2 3.3
2.7
2.7
1.8
1.8
BP
BP Vicenza
Vicenza
2.0
2.0 1.9
2.0
2.0
CreVal
CreVal
3.4
3.4
22
11
00
5.3
5.1 5.3
5.3
5.3
4.6
3.7 4.6
33
22
11
00
4.1
4.1
4.6
4.6
4.1
3.9 4.1
4.1
4.1
3.6
3.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
Net
Net NPE
NPE volume
volume (€
(€ bn)
bn)
Net
NPE
volume
(€
bn)
Net
NPE volume (€ bn)
5
55
44
4.0
4.0
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
Veneto
Veneto
Banca
Banca
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0 1.0
1.0
1.0
BP
BP Sondrio
Sondrio
CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
BP
BPSondrio
Sondrio
CreVal
CreVal
CREDEM
CREDEM
DB
DB
0.7 0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
Banca
Banca
Sella
Sella
0.5
0.5
0.9 0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.6 0.6 0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
Banco
Banco Desio
Desio
CR
CR Asti
Asti
Banco
BancoDesio
Desio
CR
CRAsti
Asti
Source: PwC’s analysis on companies H1-2015, YE-2014 and YE-2013 results
NPE
NPE Coverage
Coverage ratio
ratio (%)
(%)
NPE Coverage ratio (%)
PwC | 23
4.6
3.9
1
4
4.6
4.1
3.6
Net
NPE volume (€ bn)
0
0.8
3.4
0.8
1.0
3.3
3
2.7
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.7
Appendix - Other Top 20 Banks peer analysis (3|4)
BP Vicenza
5
2
4.6
Veneto
Banca4.6
4.1
3.9
4
1
NPE3
0
Carige
3.6
BP Sondrio
2.2
CreVal
3.4
3.3
Coverage ratio (%)
NPE
Coverage
(%)
BP Vicenza ratio
Carige
2
Veneto
Banca
BP Sondrio
1.8
50
40.0
BP35.1
Vicenza
40.1 40.0
36.0
Carige
NPE Coverage ratio (%)
30
CreVal
43.2 44.8
38.4
Veneto
BP Sondrio
34.0 32.7
30.6
Banca
40.0
BP Vicenza
Carige
18.3
38.4
Veneto
Banca
BP Vicenza
25.4
Carige
20.5
Gross
NPE ratio (%)
20
BP Vicenza
42.8
38.7 40.7
CREDEM
21.2
24.6
BP Vicenza
Carige
27.4
25.6
Veneto
Banca
BP Sondrio
12.0
BP Sondrio
Veneto
Banca
25.6
Carige
14.3
14.9
BP14.2
Sondrio
12.0
0.7
50.9
0.6
48.1
43.7
Banca
Sella
18.1
Veneto
Banca
18.7
Carige
17.2
0.9
0.5
4
16
Net
NPE ratio (%)14.3
2 12.7
14
Net
NPE ratio (%)
0
33.0 31.4
CREDEM
DB
38.7
DB
BP Vicenza
17.2
6
16
4
14
14.9
42.5
Banca
Sella
Banco Desio
273.1
BP Vicenza
8
250
6
CR Asti
50.9
49.4
42.5
35.5
Banca
Sella
Banco Desio
CR Asti
19.5
13.5
13.0
CreVal
25.8
CREDEM
6.3
9.9DB
6.7
Banca
Sella
14.9
Banco
9.5 Desio
CR Asti
Banco Desio
13.5
16.2
14.9
CR Asti
19.5
CreVal
CREDEM
25.8
DB
9.9 9.4
15.5 16.0
Banca
Sella
13.0
12.3
9.5
19.5
17.9
CreVal
13.6
7.7
Veneto
18.1
Banca
16.0
CREDEM
6.3
DB
9.9
BP Sondrio
13.0
Banca
Sella
7.8
CreVal
17.9
CREDEM
3.9
13.5
Banco Desio
18.7
16.5
Veneto
Banca
18.1
BP Sondrio
8.9
CreVal
7.7
16.8
15.6
14.3
Carige
242.1
Veneto
Banca
CR Asti
9.5
DB
5.2
3.7
9.2
8.6
9.1
9.9
Banca
Sella
6.6 Desio
Banco
CR Asti
Banca8.6
Banco Desio
9.2
CR Asti9.9
9.1
13.6
12.8
Carige
14.9
6.7
8.9
8.6 8.9
BP
7.7Sondrio
CREDEM
DB
Sella
7.8
17.9
3.9
Yearly
loan loss provision/Net
(%)
12.8 interest margin13.6
12.7
2
12
0
10
300
CR Asti
35.5
33.0
CREDEM
0.7
0.6
49.0 49.4
49.4
43.7
42.8
CR Asti
50.9
43.7
42.8
12
10
20
8
18
0.7
42.5
Banco Desio
35.5
16.0
14.9
BP Sondrio
12.0
125 NPE ratio (%)
Net
BP Vicenza
38.7
Banco Desio
19.0
12.8
12.7
6
18
DB
Banca
Sella
6.3 6.0 6.7
18.7
17.2
0.6
19.0
17.4
BP Vicenza
37.6
25.8
CreVal
24.2
Net NPE ratio (%)
20.5
16.6
0.9
0.5
CR Asti
19.0
Veneto
25.6
Banca
25.4
10
25
0.7
33.0
CreVal
33.7
32.7
17.4
16.6
10
0
8
20
0.6
Banco Desio
21.8
20.5
20
Gross
NPE ratio (%)
0
15
30
1.0
50.4 50.4
14.9
Carige
27.4
25.4
25
5
16
10
14
0.8
DB
50.4
17.4
10 16.6
Gross
NPE ratio (%)
15
0
30
10
BP Sondrio
38.4
30.6
27.4
18.3
37.6
33.7
32.7
30.6
40.0
36.0
40
20
0
15
18
37.6
37.2
CreVal
33.7
44.8
Gross
NPE40.0
ratio (%)
10
30
0
30
1.0
Banca
Sella
50.4
40.0
30
60
5
20
CREDEM
44.8
36.0 (%)
40 Coverage ratio
NPE
0
25
20
0.8
18.3
50
10
20
50
0.8
0.8
0
40
DB
2.7
2.2
60
1
60
20
CREDEM
1.8
CreVal
3.7
CREDEM
3.9 3.7 3.7
4
200
6.6
5.2
DB
5.2 4.9
8.7 8.6
Banca
7.8
Sella
8.8 9.2
9.1 9.0 9.9
Banco Desio
CR Asti
Banco Desio
CR Asti
6.6
2
Yearly
loan loss provision/Net interest margin (%)
1500
300
100
BP Vicenza
81.8
273.1
Carige
88.7
242.1
250
50
115.9
Veneto
BP Sondrio
102.4
83.0
Banca
77.3
CreVal
57.5
BP Vicenza
273.1
Carige
Veneto
BP Sondrio
Banca115.9
22.9
CreVal
250
NLP market
Net Italian
NPL/Equity
(%)| A sparkling H1-2015
0
150
80
27.1
CREDEM
41.4
DB
102.4
Source:
H1-2015,
YE-2014 and YE-2013
88.7
242.1
100 PwC’s
83.0 results
81.8 analysis on companies
50
24200
| The
DB
66.7
Yearly
loan loss provision/Net interest margin (%)
200
0
150
300
CREDEM
77.3
57.5
66.7
22.9
27.1
41.4
Banca
Sella
44.8
66.2
Banca
Sella
44.8
66.2
71.6
55.6
Banco Desio
71.6
55.6
62.3
50.8
CR Asti
62.3
50.8
12
0
10
8.9
BP Vicenza
Carige
Veneto
BP Sondrio
CreVal
20
18.7
7.7
18.1
Banca
8
17.9
17.2
18
6
16
14.3
4
13.6
14 12.7
12.8
2
12
200
18.7
10
8.9
18.1
17.9
17.2
BP Vicenza
Carige
Veneto
BP
CreVal
18
7.7Sondrio
8
Banca
16
14.3
6
Yearly
loan loss provision/Net
(%)
14 12.7
12.8 interest margin 13.6
4
12
2
10
8.9
0
7.7
8
BP Vicenza
Carige
Veneto
BP Sondrio
CreVal
300
273.1
6
Banca
242.1
4
250
Net NPE ratio (%)
CREDEM
DB
Banca8.6
7.8
Sella
9.2
Banco Desio
9.9
9.1 Asti
CR
6.6
5.2
3.9
3.7
Appendix - Other Top 20 Banks peer analysis (4|4)
CREDEM
DB
Sella
5.2
3.9
8.6
Banca
7.8
9.2
9.1
9.9
9.2
9.1
9.9
Banco Desio
6.6
CR Asti
3.7
Yearly loan loss provision/Net interest margin (%)
CREDEM
3.9
DB
5.2
3.7
8.6
7.8
Banca
Sella
6.6 Desio
Banco
CR Asti
Banca
Sella
Banco Desio
CR Asti
2
200
0
182.6
Yearly 170.0
loan loss provision/Net
interest margin (%)
175.8
150
300
100
250
BP Vicenza
Carige
Veneto
BP Sondrio
Banca115.9
273.1
81.8
88.7
242.1
102.4
83.0 78.5 77.3
CreVal
135.4
200
250
100
273.1
BP Vicenza
Carige
242.1
88.7
81.8
Veneto115.9 BP Sondrio
102.4
Banca
83.0
77.3
200
50
80
100
BP Vicenza
81.8
115.9
102.4
Carige
Veneto
88.7
72.7
Banca
70
Net43.0
NPL/Equity (%)
40
80
30
70
20
60
10
50
800
40
BP Vicenza
52.5
Carige
61.8
60.2
Net NPL/Equity (%) 52.5
70
30
45.5
CREDEM
77.3
72.7
Carige
CreVal
27.1
CREDEM
41.4
DB
66.7
57.5
22.9
27.1
BP Sondrio
42.4
CreVal
CREDEM
41.4
26.8
23.8
DB
31.6
54.5
59.5
14.4
52.5
BP Sondrio
23.8
25.5 26.8
BP Vicenza
CreVal
CREDEM
34.5
DB
31.6
59.5
14.4 14.115.0
26.8
BP Sondrio
23.8
CreVal
CREDEM
14.4
66.2
44.8
Banca
Sella 66.2
44.6
43.9
Banca
Sella
55.6
Banco Desio
71.6
55.6
Banco Desio
71.6
44.8
43.9
50.1
Veneto
Banca
Banca
Sella
71.6 66.1
55.6
62.3
77.0
50.8
CR Asti
62.3
50.8
CR Asti
62.3
50.8
60.8
51.3
Banco Desio
CR Asti
38.9
29.8
60.8
31.6
44.6
40.2
Banca
Sella
43.9
42.4
Carige
5.3
59.3 66.2
44.8
15.0
40
0
20
5
10
DB
66.7
57.5
59.5
53.6
50.1
Veneto
Banca61.8
60.2
50
Cost
of Risk* (%)
10 43.0
306
31.7
42.4
BP Vicenza
60
20
BP Sondrio
83.0
27.1
41.4
50.1
Veneto
Banca
72.7 72.9
43.0
CreVal
61.8
50
60.2
Net
NPL/Equity
(%)
60
0
50
22.9 21.0
22.9
Net NPL/Equity (%)
150
0
DB
66.7
57.5
Yearly
loan loss provision/Net interest margin (%)
50
3000
150
CREDEM
52.2 51.3
53.4
38.9
Banco
29.8 Desio
CR Asti
60.8
51.3
44.6
38.9
29.8
DB
Banca
Sella
Banco Desio
CR Asti
DB
Banca
Sella
Banco Desio
CR Asti
15.0
Cost
of Risk* (%)
4
4.1
0
3
6
BP Vicenza
Carige
Veneto
Banca2.3
5.3
2
Cost
5 of
1.4Risk* (%)
Cost of Risk* (%) 4.1
1.2
BP Sondrio
CreVal
2.3
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.3
5
2
5.3
BP Vicenza
1.4
4
1
3
0
2
0.6
Carige
4.1
3.1
YE 2013
BP Vicenza
1.4
1.7
Veneto2.3
Banca
1.2
BP Sondrio
1.9
1.5
1.4
CreVal
2.5
2.3
YE 2014
Veneto
1.4
Banca
1.2
Carige
1.9H1
1.92015
BP
Sondrio
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.2
0.6
CREDEM
DB
1.3
Banca2.3
Sella
1.7
1.7
Banco Desio
2.0
1.6
1.1
3.4
2.7
2.0
1.1
1
4
60
3
CREDEM
CreVal
1.7
0.6
1.8
1.2
0.6
CREDEM
1.3
1
CR Asti
0.6 0.5 0.6
DB
1.1 0.9
2.2 2.3
1.7Banca
2.0 Desio
Banco
2.2
CR Asti
1.8
1.2
Banca
Sella
Banco Desio
CR Asti
Sella
1.6 1.6
0
BP Vicenza
YE 2013
Carige
Veneto
YE 2014
Banca
BP Sondrio
H1 2015
CreVal
CREDEM
DB
*Cost of risk = Yearly loan loss provision / Net Customer Loan
YE 2013
YE 2014
H1 2015
Source: PwC’s analysis on companies H1-2015, YE-2014 and YE-2013 results
PwC | 25
PwC | 27
Portfolio Advisory Group
Richard Thompson
+44 20 7213 1185
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Hungary
Miklos Fekete
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Sweden
Per Storbacka
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Ireland
Aidan Walsh
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Aykut Tasel
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United Kingdom
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Finland
Harri Valkonen
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Spain
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Germany
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Austria
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CEE
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Greece
Emil Yiannopoulos
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North America
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28 | The Italian NLP market | A sparkling H1-2015