Study on the Relationship between the Growth of Economy and

Study on the Relationship between the Growth of Economy and
Quantitative Structure of Land Use
— Contrastive Analysis among Eastern, Middle and Western Regions of China
ZHANG Zhanlu CAO Jun
Department of Land Management, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China, 100872
[email protected], [email protected]
Abstract This paper use the data about city economy and land use from 1987 to 2004 in <Chinese
City Statistical Yearbook> and <Chinese Urban Construction Annual Report>, adopt descriptive
statistic, linear regression and model of comparative land productivity, from the angle of industrial
structure and land use’s quantitative structure, to analyze the reason why there are big gaps between
eastern, middle, and western regions’ economy. This paper draws a conclusion that middle and western
regions’ land use structures don’t correspond with their industrial structure, because of that their
economies are restrained. And city should follow the rule of industry evolvement, adjust the quantitative
structure of land use to industrial structure, can’t develop jumpily.
Key words Economic Growth, Quantitative Structure of Land Use, eastern middle and western
regions
、
1 Introduction
Land, labor, capital, entrepreneur capacity are the four basic elements in the production. William Pedi
also once said that "Labor is the father of wealth, land is the mother of wealth". Thus, the land constrains
the economic growth, even become one important factor constraining production. Economic growth
must be based on land, and the optimization of the industrial structure is an important aspect in the
economic growth, therefore the optimization of the industrial structure must also be made in the
optimized allocation of land resources as the premise.
Kuznets’s industry evolvement theory points that as the economy develops, in the industrialization
phase, the proportion of industry’s income and labor force will increase; and in the
after-industrialization phase, the proportion of serving industry’s income and labor force will ascend,
while the proportion of industry will descend instead. American’s scholar Raleigh.Barlowe proposes
that economic system, optimization of industrial structure and urbanism will have effects on the
structure and way of land use.
The representative domestic research about the relationship between economy growth and land use
structure are mainly as follows: Qu Futian (2001) figured out that the form of land use structure in a
region is highly related to the local economy level, land resource can be used in many ways, how to
allocate land resource in so many ways depends on the level of society and economy, land use structure
can restrain the industry evolvement, and economy growth speed. Yang Chongguang (2001) considers
that the adjustment of land use structure should contain the transaction form extensive mode to intensive
mode of land use, the coordination between the adjustment of economy structure and land use structure,
the rational use of land should be took into the consideration of urban zoning. Besides, some scholars
analyze the relationship between economy and land use structure through the research of a certain city,
for example, Wang Lei analyzed Wuhan’s movement of land use structure induced by industry
evolvement, points that the city should use the adjustment of industrial structure to promote the
optimization of land resource distribution, and must pay attention to the high-technology and
education-research land demand in information time.
The divergence of the economic developing condition is greatly disparate among the eastern, middle,
western regions. To a certain extent it is due to the optimizing extent of the industrial structure caused.
The research fruits above have revealed that the economy is related to land use structure for sure,
therefore, this paper, through the comparison of the eastern, middle, western cities, make an analysis on
the relationship between economic growth and the structural quantity of land, furthermore regards the
1005
structural quantity of urban land in different industries as the starting point, exploring ways to optimize
the industrial structure through the land so as to spur economic growth.
2 Related concepts and research methods
Urban economic growth includes two parts: optimization of the economic structure and increasing of
the total economic output. The former, industrial structure means the composition of different sectors in
the national economy. Based on its nature, it can be divided into the first industry—broad agriculture,
the second industry—broad industry, and the tertiary industry—commerce and services except the
industries referred above; the increase in total economic output can be measured by actual gross
domestic product; changes in the industrial structure is an internal driving force to economic growth,
and the increase of total output is the external manifestations of economic growth, so this paper focuses
on the former. The structure of urban land refers to the quantity proportion of urban functional land. In
order to conveniently contrast industry with the corresponding land, this paper integrates the narration
concerning the different types of land, which are composed according to “Urban Land Classification and
Standards of Programming constructing Land” formulated by the Ministry of Construction: (1)
residential land (2) industrial land (including factory, warehouse space) (3) business services land
(including public utilities, municipal utility land) (4) road traffic land (including external transport, road
Square space) (5) Green (6) special land. This paper mainly researches on the relations between the
industrial structure and land structure, and therefore it focuses on the industrial and commerce and
services land.
To make contrastive analysis among eastern, middle and western cities, firstly this paper according to
the geographical regions divided the cities of the whole country into several regions: the eastern region
(including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Shandong, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hainan,
Guangdong, Hebei), the middle region ( including Anhui, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan, Jilin,
Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Shanxi), the western region (including Gansu, Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia,
Ningxia, Qinghai, Sichuan, Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Chongqing); Secondly, this paper employs the
panel data research method to analysis. The data is from "Chinese City Statistical Yearbook" and
"Chinese Urban Construction Annual Report", (1987—2004).In the text, the GDP and land acreage are
the total amount of all cities’ data in this region, and the proportion of the production amount and the
proportion of land amount in different industries are calculated on the basis of the total value. Finally, it
will analyze those data through descriptive statistics, linear regression as well as some models.
3 Data Analysis
3.1 The description to the industry and land structure in the eastern, middle and western regions
of China
350000000
300000000
250000000
200000000
150000000
100000000
50000000
0
Eastern GDP
Middle GDP
Western GDP
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 1 1987-2004, changes of GDP at constant prices in the eastern, middle and western regions of China
1006
Figure 1 shows that the urban economy in the eastern of China develops rapidly. It has always been a
leading role, and an index increase trend. The gap with the other two regions is gradually expanding.
Comparing the eastern, the middle and the western region develop slowly, and their total economic
output has been at a very low level. This is mainly because the eastern is the first to open to the outside
world and is guided by export-oriented economy. The eastern widely attracts foreign capital and
introduces a massive amount of advanced technologies and equipments, and constantly optimizes the
industrial structure. Therefore the rate of the economic growth is obviously higher than the national
average, which in turn can further promote the concentration of essential factors of production, thus
forming a positive circle to lead the rapid growth of Chinese economy, in particular the Pearl River
Delta and Yangtze River Delta. The middle and the western region are still in the initial stage of
industrialization, mainly relying on the abundant raw materials and labor resources. It is the base of
primary production; so now their economic growth lags behind the eastern, but they still own great
potential.
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Eastern second industry
Eastern tertiary industry
Middle second industry
Middle tertiary industry
Western second industry
Western tertiary industry
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 2 1987-2004, changes of industrial output of the second and tertiary industry in the eastern, middle
and western cities of China
40.00
35.00
30.00
Second industry
Tertiary industry
Tertiary industry
Second industry
Second industry
Tertiary industry
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 3 1987-2004, proportion changes of land of second and tertiary industry in the eastern, middle and
western cities of China
Figure 2 shows the evolutional condition of industrial structure in the eastern, middle and western
regions of China. The trend line of industrial changes in these three areas are almost coincidence, that is
to say the proportion of secondary industry descends gradually, and the proportion of the tertiary
industry increases gradually, especially in the western regions, whose proportion of tertiary industry
1007
even surpasses the eastern and middle regions. As the standard of urban land classification has changed
from 1991, so the data about quantitative structure of land use is calculated from 1991. Relatively, in
Figure 3 the absolute amount of land is increasing with the growth of economy in the eastern, middle
and western cities of China. But concerning on the rate, the proportion of land in the second and tertiary
industries relevantly appears the trends of the downward and the upward, and the land proportion of the
tertiary industry in the western region also exceeds that of the eastern and middle regions.
Regardless of the region, the economic growth promotes the transfer of industrial focus from the
second industry to the tertiary industry, and correspondingly emerges the phenomenon “withdraw II and
advance III”, which means that the urban land is displaced from the second industry to the tertiary
industry. From this point, the adjustment of industrial and land structure are harmonious in the gross.
The economic development of different regions has great gap, but there is a similarly adjusting trend of
land use structure. It is necessary to further verify whether such adjustments are reasonable and
scientific or not.
3.2 Analysis on the leading role of industrial land in the eastern, middle and western regions of
China
Firstly, analysis is made to research on rationality of the land structure in different regions, which
respectively gives a unary linear regression to the output amount and land acreage of the second and
tertiary industry in different regions. Assuming that the regression equation model is Formula 1, a
represents the leading role of industrial land acreage to its output amount in this region.
Formula 1: Y=aX+b
In this paper, the “leading role” refers to the increasing amount of GDP with certain urban land
acreage raising on unit, and as well as the input of land adding, the input of human resources, financial
and material resources, science and technology is also augmenting. "Leading role" is different from
"marginal benefits". The latter refers to the increasing amount of GDP, which is caused by land acreage,
gets growth on the case of other input unchanged. Regression results are shown in table 1:
Table 1 the unary linear regression of output amount and land acreage in the eastern, middle and
western cities
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
eastern
second
industry
eastern
tertiary
industry
middle
second
industry
middle
tertiary
industry
western
second
industry
western
tertiary
industry
(Constant)
eastern
industry
(Constant)
eastern
industry
(Constant)
middle
industry
(Constant)
middle
industry
(Constant)
western
industry
(Constant)
western
industry
B
-2.00E+08
second
tertiary
second
tertiary
second
tertiary
Std.Error
2.00E+07
142077.7
6382.696
-1.00E+08
2.00E+07
190761
11298.386
-2.00E+08
4.00E+07
114770.4
23107.249
-6.00E+07
1.00E+07
106033
10850.018
-5.00E+07
1.00E+07
101792.9
16714.924
-2.00E+07
5.53E+06
82554.417
9324.414
Standardized
Cofficients
t
Sig.
-11.544
0.000
22.26
0.000
-7.137
0.000
16.884
0.000
-3.477
0.005
4.967
0.000
-4.796
0.000
9.773
0.000
-3.409
0.011
6.09
0.000
-3.361
0.000
8.854
0.000
Beta
0.988
0.98
0.82
0.943
0.917
0.947
Figure 4 intuitively reflects the leading role of the second and tertiary industries are the eastern > the
Middle > the western, and the leading role of land in the eastern tertiary industry is larger than that of
1008
the second industry, however in the middle and western region the leading role of land in second
industry is larger than that of tertiary industry.
250000
Second industry Tertiary industry
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
East
Middle
West
Figure 4 leading roles of industrial land of second and tertiary industry in the eastern, middle and western
cities of China
According to leading role, the leading role of land in the eastern tertiary industry is larger than that of
the second industry; therefore its transfer of focus on land is reasonable. The tertiary industry of the
middle and western regions has no advantage, but when there is a great potential for development in the
secondary industry, it has started to reduce the proportion of land in secondary industry and to transfer
to the tertiary industry in large scale. This fully illustrates that the industrial and land structure in middle
and western region is not scientific and reasonable in essence. The middle and western regions are in the
middle stage of industrialization, whose industrialization keeps a low level and industrial output lags far
behind the eastern. Therefore maintaining a certain level of industrial growth and industrial proportion
still remains necessary; and from the contrast of the leading role in the three regions, it will be found
that the intensification level of industrial land in the middle and western region are far below the level of
the eastern region, so the scale of land should be expanded and at the same time attentions should be
paid to improvement of the intensity of land.
3.3 analyses on comparative land productivity of industrial land in the eastern, middle and
western regions of China
In the next part, the comparative land productivity model is employed to make a further verification.
The index is from XU Ping’s article <Optimization of industrial structure and allocation of land
resource>, refers to the lots for which the output of various industries accounts in the national economy
as well as its proportion for which its industrial land accounts in the total sum of urban land.
Formula 2: Ri = Oi Li
In this formula: Ri refers to comparative land productivity of the i-th industry; Oi means the relative
proportion of the i-th industry in national income; Li implies the relative proportion of the i-th industrial
land in the total sum of urban land. Industrial comparative land productivity, which is the economic
value produced by industrial land in unit acreage, can reflect the efficiency and level of industrial
occupied land in the national economy. This paper only makes comparison to the urban second and
tertiary industry. Table 2 reflects the comparative land productivity in the secondary industry is the
western > the middle > the eastern; and the comparative land productivity in tertiary is the eastern > the
middle> the western.
Table 2 the comparative land productivity in the eastern, middle and western regions
year
eastern region
middle region
western region
1009
1991
second
industry
2.06
tertiary
industry
2.81
second
industry
2.13
tertiary
industry
2.92
second
industry
2.10
tertiary
industry
2.65
1992
2.24
2.03
2.18
2.65
1.97
2.90
1993
2.06
2.56
2.10
2.76
2.02
2.79
1994
1.98
2.93
2.10
2.76
2.00
2.73
1995
1.96
3.00
2.05
2.94
2.08
2.78
1996
1.96
3.24
2.01
2.87
2.21
2.73
1997
1.95
3.26
2.02
2.95
2.05
2.91
1998
1.15
4.97
0.54
5.81
2.08
2.91
1999
1.99
3.31
2.00
3.03
2.08
2.96
2000
1.99
3.36
2.08
2.80
2.17
2.75
2001
2.02
3.26
2.11
2.84
2.17
2.70
2002
2.04
3.28
2.13
2.80
2.24
2.67
2003
2.11
3.12
2.23
2.67
2.30
2.56
2004
2.10
3.04
2.30
2.56
2.38
2.41
The eastern region in coastal areas has predominant regional advantage to open to the outside world
and develop economy. It has become the region where the speed of economic development is the fastest
and the level of urbanization is the highest. The commercial activities in this region have the maximum
of frequency, and it is much easier to absorb external capital investment and advanced technology.
Comparing to the middle and western regions, these factors are extremely helpful to develop the tertiary
industry, especially the burgeoning high-tech industry. Because the scale of its land has already been
very large and the problem of land scarcity is particularly serious, it is scientific to expand the tertiary
industry which has the high cost-effective, but reduce the second industry whose leading role is lower
and which produces heavy pollution.
Although comparison land productivity of the tertiary industry in the middle and western regions is
much higher than that in the second industry, their discrepancy in the quota is obviously lower than that
of comparison land productivity of the second and tertiary industry in the eastern region. So comparison
with the east region, the tertiary industry of the middle and western region has no advantage. Moreover,
comparison productivity of tertiary industry in the middle and western region is obviously lower than
that of the eastern region; their comparison productivity in second industry is higher than that of the
eastern region. Contrasting the output amount of second industry in 2004, the eastern region being
4.4161 trillion yuan, the middle region 1.4078 trillion yuan, and the western 623, 3 billion yuan,
differences between them are so great. In addition, the middle and western region is rich in minerals,
land and labor resources. So it should continue to devote the land to the development of second industry
rather than blindly following the eastern region to develop the tertiary industry.
Therefore, in order to enhance the relative efficiency of industrial land, the tertiary industry should be
more focused on in the development of the eastern region, and the second industry should be transferred
toward the middle and western regions. The comparative advantages of different regions should be
made full use of and the land resources should get rational allocation.
4 The conclusion
China's urban industrial structure incompatible with the land has become a pressing issue. As the
above analysis, as a whole, regardless of region, urban economic growth not only drives the
development of tertiary industry, but also makes intra-city land in the tertiary industry gradually replace
that of the secondary industry. The secondary industry of the eastern region has developed into mature,
and has been gradually entering the post-industrialization, which can vigorously promote the
1010
development of tertiary industry. But the middle and western regions, especially the western is still in
industrialization. Their secondary industry still has great potential and leading role of land in tertiary
industry is far lower than that of the eastern region. In fact, the middle and western regions modeling on
the eastern region reduce the land of secondary industry and increase the land of the tertiary industry.
Such blind practice is incompatible with the current situation of the industrial structure; at the same time
the industrial development of these regions is imperfect, not reaching the extent of supporting
cosmically tertiary industry. As a result, the development of these regions lacks staying power. These
two react together, leading to the inhibition of economic development in the two regions.
Therefore, when the city adjusts the industrial structure and land structure, it should strictly abide by
the evolution rules of industrial structure, without developing by leaps and bounds and overlooking a
certain development stage. It should possess a strategic perspective, explore its regional advantages and
formulate proper land structure which is suitable to local industrial structure. In general, having entered
the stage of post-industrialization, the eastern region should be tilted to the tertiary industry in the aspect
of land structure. Involving in the stage of industrialization, the middle and western regions should take
proper strategy to develop industry in prior and lay a good foundation for steady development, rather
than blindly following the eastern region to expand the land of tertiary industry. In the 21st century, it
must modulate the land structure in accordance with economic and social development and the need for
economic restructuring, in order to adapt to the changes and rules of the urban development and
construction. It is an important and long-term task concerning about the reform and management of the
urban land system.
References
[1]City and Social Economic Investigation Department of National Bureau of Statistics. Chinese City
Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1987-2004 (In Chinese)
[2]Ministry of Construction Finance Division. Chinese Urban Construction Annual Report. Beijing:
China Construction Industry Press, 1987-2004 (In Chinese)
[3]Qu Futian. Economy Develops and Sustainable Use of Land. Beijing: People’s Press, 2001:23-27(In
Chinese)
[4]Raleigh.Barlowe. Land Economics—Real Estate Economics. Beijing: Agriculture University Press,
1989 :137-145 (In Chinese)
[5] Simon.Kuznets. Taxes Theory. Shanghai: Commercial Press, 1978:15-18 (In Chinese)
[6]Wang Lei. City’s Industrial Structure Adjustment and Optimization of City’s Space
Structure—Wuhan For Example. Collective Print of Urban Planning, 2001(3):55-60 (In Chinese)
[7]William Pedi. Treatise on Taxes and Contributions. Shanghai: The Commercial Press, 1978:47 (In
Chinese)
[8]Xu Ping, Wu Qun. Optimization of Industrial Structure and Allocation of Land Resource—Nanjing
City Jiangsu Province for Example. China Land, 2004(1~2):340-346 (In Chinese)
[9]Yang Chongguang. Adjustment of Land Structure Is The Main Content of Chinese Cities’ Land
Management in 21 Century. China Land Science, 2001(1): 8-10 (In Chinese)
Author in brief
Zhang Zhanlu, male, doctor degree, associate professor in Department of Land Management, Renmin
University of China, pursues in the researches of urban and rural land use planning, and land
consolidation planning.
Cao Jun, female, 2008th graduate student in Department of Land Management, Renmin University of
China.
Contact information
Zhang Zhanlu: Department of Land Management, Renmin University of China, 59th at ZhongguanCun
Avenue, Beijing, 100872, the mailbox is [email protected].
Cao Jun: Department of Land Management, Renmin University of China, 59th at ZhongguanCun
Avenue, Beijing, 100872, the mailbox is [email protected].
1011