Brazilian energy efficiency market Strategy proposal V DIÁLOGO POLÍTICO SOBRE EFICIENCIA

V DIÁLOGO POLÍTICO SOBRE EFICIENCIA
ENERGÉTICA EN AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE
Brazilian energy efficiency market
Using energy efficiency indicators
Strategy proposal
Ricardo Gorini
28 October, 2014
Lima, Peru
Planning energy
efficiency
ABC for the energy efficiency market
Fostering energy
efficiency market
Energy
efficiency
market
potential
Energy
efficiency
policies /
mechanism
portfolio
Energy
efficiency
performance
Database
2
Planning energy
efficiency
Planning energy efficiency
Fostering energy
efficiency market
Energy
efficiency
performance
Database
3
BrazilPrimary
energy consumption
Brazil:
Consumption
• Primary Consumption: 3,2% a.a
• GDP: 2,9% a.a.
Primary energy consumption in 2011 [million toe]
Spain
United
Kingdom
France
Germany
USA
China
126
188
253
312
2,191
2,728
300
284
250
2012
Mtoe
200
150
100
50
0
142
2000
Renewable
energy
41%
1990
Renewable
energy 49%
Renewable
energy
42%
Nonrenewable
energy
51%
Nonrenewable
energy
59%
Nonrenewable
energy
58%
Energy
consumption:
residential
share
(%)
Value added
structure
by industrial
branch
in(%)
industry
Energy
consumption
- Industry
sector
Residential
Year 2012
Industry
4%
11%
Transportation
35%
10%
Energy sector
Residential
9%
Agriculture
31%
Others
5
Household: –
total
energy
consumption
Households
Total
Energy
Consumption
• Total energy consumption from households has increased by 25%.
• Electricity consumption has almost double in the same period while
wood and charcoal consumption has decreased in absolute value.
25,000
[10³ toe]
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1990
LPG residential consumption
Electricity residential consumption
Total consumption of households
Source: BEN, EPE
2000
2012
Gas residential consumption
Wood and charcoal residential consumption
Households:–energy
consumption
per dwelling
Households
Consumption
per dwelling
• Despite the energy consumption increase, the energy consumption per
dwelling has decreased from 1990 to 2012 by around 25%.
• Wood, charcoal and GLP have decreased, while electricity has increased
significantly.
0.6 [toe/dw]
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1990
LPG residential consumption
Electricity residential consumption
Total consumption of households
Source: BEN, EPE
2000
2012
Gas residential consumption
Wood and charcoal residential consumption
Households: end use - energy consumption per dwelling
• Share of energy consumption for cooking has reduce.
• Electrical appliances increased more than 7%pts.
1.00
0.90
10.0%
11.2%
64.5%
55.9%
25.5%
32.9%
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2005
Electrical Appliances and Heating
2012
Cooking
Water Heating
8
Households:specific
energy consumption
consumption for
Households
forcooking
cookingper dwelling
 Specific energy consumption for cooking is decreasing steadily.
 Despite of this, Brazil has a large consumption for cooking, when
compared to other countries, so the decrease tendency will probably
continue.
0.40
0.35
54,5%
firewood
53,6%
firewood
0.25
0.40
0.20
0.35
0.15
0.30
0.25
0.10
toe/dw
toe/dw
0.30
0.05
0.15
0.00
0.10
cooking
2000
Source: EPE
0.20
0.05
2012
0.00
France
Germany
Source: ODYSSEE
Italy
2000
Portugal
2005
Spain
2010
United
Kingdom
European
Union
Brazil
9
Households:
solar water
heating
Solar
water heater
(SWH)
equipment rates
 Diffusion of SWH during period 2005-2012 from 1,3% to almost 4%
 Increase of installed area from 2.795 to 8.419 m²/ 1.000 inhabitants
(0,6% of the electricity demand in
households in 2012)
745 GWh
(avoided consumption)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
Installed m²/1.000 inhabitants
2009
2010
2011
2012
% household with SWH
Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA)
10
Household: end use – electricity consumption per dwelling
 The growth of the specific electricity consumption per household is
mainly linked to larger electrical equipment such as refrigerators, TV,
washing machines, air conditioning and others.
 Lighting and water heating follow a stable trend.
[kWh/dw]
2,000
1,800
1,400
1,200
286
100
289
71
1,000
800
600
1,128
867
6,000
5,000
400
200
0
7,000
350
359
2005
2012
Hot water
Electrical appliances
Cooling
Lighting
kWh/dw
1,600
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
France
Germany
Source: ODYSSEE
Italy
2000
Portugal
Spain
2005
2010
United European
Kingdom Union
Brazil
11
Household: appliances share of electricity consumption
• Together, those equipment were responsible for 76% of the total
electricity demand in the residential sector in 2012.
5%
19%
11%
18%
2%
5%
15%
12
Household: appliances ownership
• Households are increasing ownership of electrical appliances.
• Despite this growth, Brazil has a huge pent-up demand, so this
increase will probably continue.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Refrigerator
Washing
machine
Source: Associations, EPE
TV
Electric shower
2005
Air
conditioning
2012
Freezer
Lamps
13
Household: decomposition of electricity consumption
 Increasing number of households has contributed to raise the
consumption by 5.021 GWh (“demographic effect”), or 56% of total
consumption variation. Energy savings respond for around 20%.
 Labeling and minimum standards are essential for improving energy
efficiency in that case, as increasing sales are expected.
8000
Household: Decomposition of electricity consumption
variation for cooling, refrigerators and washing machines
in Brazil (2005-2012)
6000
GWh
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
Source: EPE
Consumption
variation
Demographic effect
Equipment
ownership effect
Energy savings
effect
14
Energy efficiency performance indicators
• Guiding for the analysis
• Help defining targets for energy efficiency
• Organization of data
• Focus on collecting data
• Building capacity
• Stablishing a coordination
15
Planning energy
efficiency
Planning energy efficiency
Fostering energy
efficiency market
Energy
efficiency
market
potential
Data base
16
Energy scenarios and the energy efficiency market
• Energy efficiency potential and incentives may change according to
the energy scenario.
• Energy prices, GDP growth, population and income, resources
availability, financing conditions, etc are examples of premises that
affect energy efficiency market.
A
Energy
scenarios
5
10
15
years
17
20
x
D
25
Energy efficiency
market potential
B
Targets and
portfolio
C
Monitoring
Cost potential curve: Energy efficiency market potential
4.000
CCP dinâmica - Papel e Celulose 2025
Custo de conservação
de energia (R$/tep)
Todas as MEEs avaliadas
Potencial: 1.178 ktep/ano
MEEs custo negativo
Potencial: 972 ktep/ano
Economia: 447 milhões R$/ano
Investimento: 5,2 bilhões R$ (2,704 bi $ adicionais)
Premissas (2025)
Preço EE: 280 R$/MWh
Preço do vapor: 16 R$/GJ
Taxa de desconto: 9,4%
3.000
2.000
1.000
Instalação de capotas nas máquinas
de papel
Otimização de parâmetros
operacionais da secagem térmica e
recuperação de calor residual
Uso de recuperadores de calor
residual para o forno de cal
Rec. do calor residual do vapor
liberado por purgadores - papel
Utilização de softwares de controle
baseados em inteligência artificial
Recuperação de calor de vapor
“flash”
Potencial (tep/ano)
0
0
250.000
500.000
750.000
1.000.000
1.250.000
1.500.000
1.750.000
2.000.000
Utilização de prensas de sapatas
na máquina de papel
-1.000
Rec. do calor residual do vapor
liberado por purgadores - celulose
-2.000
Aumento da concentração de
sólidos no licor preto
Troca de motores elétricos - papel
Troca de motores elétricos celulose
-3.000
-4.000
Aumento na taxa de reciclagem de
papel
Conservação de energia elétrica
Conservação de energia térmica
Conservação de energia térmica e elétrica
2.250.000
Planning energy
efficiency
Planning energy efficiency
Fostering energy
efficiency market
Energy
efficiency
policies /
mechanism
portfolio
Data base
19
Energy efficiencies policies in Brazil
Law 10.295
“Energy
Efficiency Law”
CONPET
Law 9.991
PEE ANEEL
PBE - INMETRO
1984
1985
PROCEL
Eletrobras
1991
2000
Electricity crisis
2001
2005
Electric motors
regulation – first
device regulated by
Law 10.295
Interministerial
Ordinance N° 553
PNE 2030
Vehicle and
building
labeling
2007
2009
PNEF
Ordinance
N°594
2010
2011
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 1.007 - Schedule
establishes minimum limits
for incandescent lamps in
order to banish them from
the market
Energy
efficiencies
policies
Brazil
Energy
Efficiency
Policies
inin
Brazil
- Overview
Minimum levels of energy
efficiency for compact
fluorescent lamps
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 132
Changes Law 9.991
60% of the amount of
PEE’s must be allocated
to low income energy
efficiency projects
Minimum levels of energy
efficiency for water gas heaters
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 298
Targets programs for air
conditioners, water heaters,
gas stoves and ovens and
refrigerators and freezers
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 323, 324, 325 and 326
PNE 2030
2006
2007
Maximum levels of electricity consumption
for refrigerators and freezers
Interministerial Ordinance N° 362
Minimum levels of energy efficiency for gas
stoves and ovens and air conditioners
Interministerial Ordinance N° 363 and 364
2008
2009
2010
2011
PNEF – Portaria
N°594
Building labelling
for household
sector
Interministerial Ordinance
N° 1.007 - Schedule establishes
minimum limits for
incandescent lamps in order to
ban them from the market
Huge impact in the
household sector!
Targets programs for
compact fluorescent
lamps
Interministerial
Ordinance
N° 1.008
Planning energy
efficiency
ABC for the energy efficiency market
Fostering energy
efficiency market
Energy
efficiency
market
potential
Energy
efficiency
policies /
mechanism
portfolio
Energy
efficiency
performance
Data base
22
Conclusions and Recommendations
• Applying energy efficiency indicators for monitoring the performance
and the targets for energy efficiency (Proyeto BIEE).
• Building the portfolio of energy efficiency policies, mechanisms and
market instruments.
• Cost potential curves defining the energy efficiency market.
• Next steps to foster energy efficiency market:
– Energy Scenarios for Latin America and Caribbean
countries.
– Cost potential curves for Latin America and Caribbean
countries.
23
Ricardo Gorini
[email protected]
+55 21 3512-3121
Thank you very much!
EMPRESA DE PESQUISA ENERGÉTICA - EPE
<http://www.epe.gov.br>
Av. Rio Branco, 1 – 11o andar – Zip code: 20090–003
Rio de Janeiro – Brasil – RJ
Tel.: + 55 (21) 3512 – 3100
Fax: + 55 (21) 3512 – 3199