Asia-Pacific Trade Briefs Tajikistan

ASIA-PACIFIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT
REPORT 2015
Supporting Participation in Value Chains
Asia-Pacific Trade Briefs
Tajikistan
Merchandise trade: Merchandise exports in 2014 fell by -7.2%, compared with the 5-year annual average of -5.2%.
With a low level of product diversification and heavy reliance upon natural resources, the Tajik economy is especially
susceptible to volatile commodity prices. Exports are diversified across only 57 products and 21 markets – compared
to the Asia-Pacific average of 2,107 products and 95 trading partners. Aluminium, gold and cotton are the main
export products. The leading export partners are China, the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, which together
account for more than three-quarters of Tajikistan’s exports (80%). Merchandise imports grew by 8.4% in 2014,
compared with a 5-year annual average of 14.1%. Major imported products are petroleum oils and wheat, and its
major import partners are Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Switzerland.
Services trade: The main components of services exports are transportation, telecommunications, and business
services. Both services exports and imports fell substantially by -32.7% and -25.8% respectively in 2014. This is in
contrast with 5-year average annual growth rates of 5.6% and 10.8%.
Global value chains (GVCs): The share of intermediate goods in trade – a proxy for participation in GVCs – in
Tajikistan (21%) is about the same as the Asia-Pacific overall (22%) for imports, and much higher in Tajikistan (48%)
than the Asia-Pacific (18%) for exports. Tajikistan has a relatively low level of participation in GVCs as it primarily
imports final goods such as petroleum oils and wheats. However, as an exporter, it has a moderate level of
participation in GVCs as it mainly exports intermediate goods such as metals and ores such as aluminium, gold, zinc,
and lead as well as agriculture products like cotton.
Foreign direct investment (FDI): In 2014, Tajikistan’s FDI inflows were double the 2013 level, at around $263
million. Tajikistan offers a favourable climate to regional and cross-border investment, and the government has
emphasised FDI for the development of new industrial activities, as well as for modernising existing ones.
Aluminium, cotton and energy are the sectors that currently attract most foreign investment. Tourism is also
emerging as a potential growth sector. China, Russia, Qatar, Great Britain, Turkey and Iran were the leading sources
of FDI. Russia has notably invested in the construction of medium capacity hydroelectric central power plants and in
the banking sector.
Tariffs: Average MFN applied and effective tariffs at 7.6% and 5.4% are similar to the Asia-Pacific averages of 7.4%
and 7.4% respectively.
Trade costs: Intraregional trade costs in Tajikistan slightly fell from 2013 levels. However, it is still costlier for AsiaPacific economies to trade with the Tajikistan than with the East Asia-3 (China, Japan and Republic of Korea) – the
intraregional benchmark – and with the EU-3 (France, Germany and United Kingdom) – the extraregional
benchmark. Based on the UNRC Survey 2015*, Tajikistan’s trade facilitation and paperless trade implementation
score is at 49%, compared to 46.5% for the Asia-Pacific.
Trade agreements: Tajikistan has 9 trade agreements in force, slightly higher than the Asia-Pacific average of 7
agreements. Fifty-four per cent of exports are to PTA partners, compared to 35% for the Asia-Pacific. Forty-one per
cent of imports are from PTA partners, compared to 45% for the Asia-Pacific region.
Figure 1. Key trade and investment indicators
200
Annual growth (%)
150
150.5
100
50
0
-50
- 7.2
- 1.0
- 1.5
- 25.8
8.4
6.1
4.8
- 32.7
1.5
Tajikistan Asia-Pacific
Tajikistan Asia-Pacific Tajikistan
Asia-Pacific
Tajikistan Asia-Pacific
Tajikistan Asia-Pacific
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Services exports
2013-2014
Services imports
FDI inflows
2010-2014
*Country notes summarising results of the UNRC Survey 2015 are available at: http://unnext.unescap.org/UNTFSurvey2015.asp
Figure 2. Top merchandise markets
25
Other Asia, nes; -2
Lithuania; 2
Algeria; -7
Italy; -9
5
Turkey; 6
European Union; 11
10
Russian Federation;
18
-20
1
0
10
20
Imports (%)
China; 51
30
40
50
2
90
60
-10
Total Export (%)
Gold (including gold
plated with pl; 16.6
-5
Unwrought
aluminium.; 27.2
1
0
5
10
Imports (%)
15
20
25
2
30
Exports (%)
Figure 5. Foreign direct investment
0.3
8
0.25
48
70
60
64
73
50
40
30
20
Zinc ores and
concentrates.; 9.3
Petroleum oils and
oils obtained fr; -7.8
80
70
Lead ores and
concentrates.; 8.5
Exports (%)
Figure 4. Trade in goods by their use
100
Cotton, not carded
or combed.; 7.2
Wheat and meslin.; 3.7
0
-10
Other ores and
concentrates.; 4.6
Men's or boys' suits,
ensembles, ja; -3.6
5
Kazakhstan; -25
-30
Petroleum gases and
other gaseous h; -2.6
Bed linen, table
linen, toilet line; -2.8
Kazakhstan; 11
Turkey; -22
44
22
18
10
0.15
0.1
0.05
13
5
Tajikistan Asia-Pacific
Tajikistan Asia-Pacific
Exports
Imports
Raw materials
0.2
21
12
0
Intermediate goods
0
2011
Final goods
Figure 6. Tariffs
2012
FDI Inflows
2013
2014
FDI Outflows
Figure 7. Trade costs
100
250
90
80
Ad valorem equivalent (%)
200
70
Rate (%)
0
Fruit, dried, other
than that of he; 4.2
Other footwear.; -2.6
European Union; 6
Switzerland; -17
Fish fillets and other
fish meat (w; 2.6
Other footwear with
outer soles and; -2.6
Value in USD billions
10
15
Switzerland; 2
Men's or boys' suits,
ensembles, ja; 2.3
Women's or girls'
suits, ensembles,; 2.5
20
India; 1
China; -7
Copper ores and
concentrates.; 1.9
Gold (including gold
plated with pl; -2.3
Germany; 1
Russian Federation; 5
15
Wood sawn or
chipped lengthwise,
sl; -2.0
25
Korea, Rep.; 1
Bahamas, The; -2
20
Figure 3. Top merchandise products
60
50
40
30
20
100
50
10
0
150
7.6
MFN
applied
Tajikistan
5.4
Effectively
applied
Asia-Pacific
0
2009
Tajikistan
2010
2011
East Asia - 3
2012
EU-3
Sources: Trade and tariff data were accessed through WITS. FDI data was accessed through UNCTADstat.
Notes: Trade data follows the HS2007 classification. Mirror data is used. Products are defined at the 6-digit level.
Definitions: Primary, intermediate, consumer, and capital goods are defined using UNCTAD System of Accounts. Final goods are defined as the sum of
consumer and capital goods. Bound tariff is the maximum most favoured nation (MFN) tariff permitted under WTO obligations. MFN applied tariff is the
tariff applied on imports among WTO members. Effectively applied rate is the lowest tariff available, i.e. preferential rates where available.
Authors: Aman Saggu and Pakkaporn Visetsilpanon; comments from Witada Anukoonwattaka and Adam Heal; contact: [email protected].