1948 ECONOMIC SURVEY of ASIA and the FAR EAST Eco nomic Analysis

Eco nomic Analysis
and Survey Branch
UNITED NATIONS
ECONOMIC SURVEY
of ASIA and the FAR EAST
1948
PREPARED BY THE SECRETARIAT
OF THE E C O N O M IC C O M M IS S IO N
FOR A SIA A N D THE FAR EAST
DEP A R T M E N T O F E C O N O M I C AFFAIRS
L a ke Success, N e w Y o r k ,
19 49
UNITED N A T IO N S PUBLICATIONS
Sales N u m ber: 1949. II. F. 1
CONTENTS
Page
P r e f a c e ................................................................................
xi
PART I
G eneral
I.
C haracteristics of Asian econom y .......................................
Predom inance of agricultural production ............
U nder-developm ent of industrial re so u rc e s............
Low p r o d u c tiv ity ...........................................................
Pressure of popu lation on re s o u rc e s .........................
Poverty ..............................................................................
3
3
4
5
7
8
II.
Population trends ..................................................................
G eneral considerations ................................................
D em ography of countries of the r e g i o n ................
P opulation m ovem ents ................................................
Sum m ary .........................................................................
10
10
12
28
30
II I.
Salient changes since the w ar ...........................................
Decline of c o lo n ia lis m ..................................................
T errito rial changes .......................................................
Econom ic planning an d control ..............................
C hanges in p a tte rn of p r o d u c ti o n ...........................
M ovem ents tow ard econom ic e q u a l i t y ..................
Consequences of inflation .........................................
In tern atio n al econom ic r e la t io n s ..............................
32
32
33
36
38
39
44
44
PA RT II
P roduction
IV .
Food and agriculture ...........................................................
Food prod uctio n ...........................................................
R ice an d o th er cereals .......................................
Livestock a n d poultry p r o d u c t s .......................
Fishery products ..................................................
iii
49
49
49
52
55
Page
In d u strial an d com m ercial c r o p s .............................
Supply of w orking anim als an d agricultural req u isites .............. ..............................................................
56
60
V.
Industry a n d m i n i n g ...............................................................
M ining ..............................................................................
Industry ............................................................................
G eneral trends by countries .....................................
T h e problem of r e c o v e r y ..............................................
68
69
74
83
92
V I.
T ra n sp o rt ...................................................................................
95
R ailw ay transport .......................................................... 95
W aterw ay transport .....................................................
99
R oad transport .............................................................. 101
Air transport ................................................................... 103
V II.
L abo ur .......................................................................................
Em ploym ent an d distribution ...................................
L abour supply and r e c r u i t m e n t .................................
L abour productivity .....................................................
Conditions of w o r k .......................................................
L abour organization an d legislation .....................
108
108
111
114
116
118
PART III
M onetary and fiscal developm ents
V III.
IX .
C u r r e n c y .....................................................................................
Changes in m onetary s y s te m s .....................................
Composition of the currency reserves ...................
T endency towards m anaged currencies ...................
Exchange control ..........................................................
Relationship w ith the In tern atio n al M onetary
F u n d ...........................................................................
Sum m ary ..........................................................................
134
135
Banking .....................................................................................
Banking structure ..........................................................
C entral b a n k i n g ..............................................................
C om m ercial b a n k i n g .....................................................
A gricultural finance .....................................................
Industrial finance ..........................................................
Security m arkets ............................................................
B anking legislation .......................................................
Sum m ary ..........................................................................
138
138
141
144
147
151
153
156
159
iv
123
123
126
129
130
Page
X.
P u b lic fin an ce .............................................................................
M a g n itu d e of g o v e rn m e n t b u d g e t s ..........................
A nalysis of g o v e rn m e n t e x p e n d itu re a n d rev en u e
M e th o d s of fin a n c in g deficits ....................................
162
162
168
176
P A R T IV
In fla tio n a n d price m o vem ents
X I.
In fla tio n a n d p rice m o v em en ts ...........................................
T r e n d s d u rin g 1948 .........................................................
F a c to rs t h a t h a v e p ro d u c e d i n f l a t i o n .....................
C u rre n c y circ u la tio n a n d p r i c e s .................................
F o o d a n d n o n -fo o d p r i c e s .............................................
Effects o f i n f l a t i o n ............................................................
A n ti-in fla tio n a ry m easures ...........................................
F e a tu re s a n d tre n d s o f price c o n t r o l ........................
185
185
188
191
193
194
198
201
PART V
In te rn a tio n a l tra d e an d balance o f paym ents
X II.
I n te r n a tio n a l tra d e ...................................................................
I n t r o d u c t i o n ........................................................................
Im p o rts, e x p o rts a n d b a la n c e of t r a d e ...................
T r a d e in p rin c ip a l co m m odities ...............................
G e o g ra p h ic a l d istrib u tio n o f tra d e ..........................
T r a d e a n d p a y m e n ts a r r a n g e m e n t s ..........................
In te rn a tio n a l c o m m o d ity a g reem en ts .....................
207
207
210
221
233
243
249
X III.
B alan ce of p a y m e n t s .................................................................
O v e r-a ll b a l a n c e s ..............................................................
D o lla r deficits ...................................................................
T h e p o sitio n of th e r e g i o n ...........................................
R o le o f th e term s o f t r a d e .............................................
T h e c a p ita l a c c o u n t .........................................................
C o u n try n o t e s .....................................................................
S u m m a r y ...............................................................................
255
255
258
259
261
263
264
273
v
IN D E X OF TABLES
PA RT I
G eneral
Page
1. P opulation an d area of A FE countries, 1947 ......................
13
PART II
P roduction
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23 .
24.
25.
26.
P roduction of m ajo r food crops ............................................
P roduction of p ad d y r i c e ..........................................................
P roduction of w heat an d r y e ..................................................
P roduction of coarse grains ...................................................
N um bers of hogs, goats an d sheep .......................................
N um bers of chickens a n d ducks ............................................
P roduction of raw cotton ........................................................
P roduction of n atu ra l ru b b e r .................................................
P roduction of t o b a c c o .................................................................
N u m b er of w orking a n i m a l s .....................................................
Production, im port an d consum ption of chem ical fertilisers .........................................................................................
S tated requirem ents fo r pow er pum ps on f a r m s ..................
S tated requirem ents for farm t r a c t o r s ...................................
S tated requirem ents fo r chem ical p e s tic id e s ..........................
Iron-ore p r o d u c t i o n ......................................................................
C oal prod uction ............................................................................
O u tp u t of tin-in-ore ...................................................................
Iro n an d steel p r o d u c t i o n ..........................................................
C em ent p roduction .....................................................................
M ill consum ption of raw cotton ............................................
M ill production of cotton y arn an d f a b r i c s ...........................
O u t p u t o f s e l e c t e d m a c h i n e r y p r o d u c t s i n I n d i a .............
O u t p u t o f s e l e c t e d m a c h i n e r y p r o d u c t s i n J a p a n ............
C hem ical prod uction in In d ia an d J a p a n ...........................
Postw ar electric pow er c a p a c i t y ..............................................
vii
49
50
51
52
53
54
57
58
59
61
62
64
65
65
69
70
73
75
76
76
77
79
80
80
82
Page
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
G eneration of electric p o w e r .....................................................
O u tp u t of selected m anu factu red products in In d ia . . . .
Average m onthly value of selected m achinery im ports into
In d ia ........................................................................................
E stim ated production of m ajo r m an u factu red products in
C h i n a ........................................................................................
L ength of railw ay lines ............................................................
N um b er of locomotives in use ..................................................
N um b er of passenger an d freight cars ................................
Average m onthly entrances an d clearances of vessels w ith
cargo in external t r a d e ........................................................
L en gth of h ig h w a y s .....................................................................
N um ber of registered m otor v e h ic le s .....................................
Distances flown by scheduled a i r l i n e s ...................................
Average m onthly civil aviation statistics in C h i n a .............
Average m onthly civil aviation statistics in I n d i a .............
Civil aviation statistics in P a k i s t a n .......................................
P roportion of gainfully occupied em ployed population in
total population ...................................................................
O ccupational distribution of gainfully em ployed p o p u lation ............................................................................................
T ra d e union m em bership ..........................................................
82
84
85
86
96
97
98
100
102
103
104
105
106
106
109
110
118
PART III
M onetary and Fiscal D evelopm ents
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
Percentages of various classes of reserves against note issue
N ote issue, bank deposits an d bank c le a r in g s .....................
Percentages of dem and and tim e deposits to to tal deposits,
of liquid assets to dem and deposits an d of o th er assets
to total deposits ...................................................................
Bank deposits and some im p o rtan t bank a s s e t s ................
Co-operative societies in In d ia an d P a k i s t a n .......................
Index of governm ent revenues and expenditures in p re w ar prices ..............................................................................
Index of budget deficits ............................................................
G overnm ent revenue, expenditure and surplus deficit. . .
Share of defence service in governm ent ex p e n d itu re. . . .
Share of debt service in governm ent e x p e n d i tu r e ............
Proportion of direct an d indirect taxes in governm ent
revenue ...................................................................................
Receipts and disbursem ents of the C entral G overnm ent
of I n d i a ...................................................................................
viii
127
144
145
146
149
163
164
166
169
172
173
179
P A R T IV
Inflation and price movements
Page
56. Indices of cost of living an d wholesale p r i c e ...................
57. In d ex of currency circulation, retail prices and real value
of cash holdings ...............................................................
58. Indices of food an d non-food p r i c e s ...................................
59. Exchange m ovem ents relative to price movements . . . .
186
192
193
196
PART V
In ternational trade and balance of payments
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
79.
T o tal value of foreign trad e of EC A FE c o u n tr ie s .........
R ice exports ................................................................................
Rice im ports ................................................................................
N et im p o rt or export of bread grains and coarse grains . .
T ra d e in fats a n d oils ...........................................................
N et im p o rt o r export of s u g a r .............................................
E xport of tea ..............................................................................
N et export of n atu ra l r u b b e r ................................................
Im p o rt of petroleum products ..............................................
T ra d e of E C A F E countries w ith the U n ited States expressed as percentages of their total im ports and
exports .................................................................................
T ra d e of E C A F E countries w ith rest of the EC A FE
region expressed as percentages of their total imports
an d exports ........................................................................
T ra d e of EC A F E countries w ith the U n ited K ingdom
expressed as percentages of their total im ports and
exports .................................................................................
T ra d e of E C A F E countries w ith Ja p a n expressed as percentages of their total im ports and ex p o rts.............
Release of sterling balances and dollar a llo c a tio n s .........
Sum m ary view of balances of paym ents on current
account ...............................................................................
M erchandise balance of E C A F E countries with the
U n ited States ....................................................................
M erchandise balance of E C A F E countries w ith countries
outside the region ...........................................................
T erm s of t r a d e ...........................................................................
Price ratios of selected prim ary products in selected
m arkets, 1947 ....................................................................
Postw ar international grants an d credits .........................
ix
212
222
222
223
225
226
227
229
231
239
240
240
241
244
256
258
260
261
262
263
P age
80.
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
86.
Ceylon’s balance of paym ents ...............................................
C h in a’s balance of p a y m e n ts ....................................................
I n d i a ’s b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s o n c u r r e n t a c c o u n t , 1 9 3 8 -3 9
to 1946-47 ............................................................................
In d ia ’s balance of paym ents on cu rre n t acco un t fo r the
first h alf of 1948 ...............................................................
Indonesia’s balance of paym ents
.....................................
P hilippine balance of p a y m e n ts .............................................
Siam ’s balance of paym ents ....................................................
x
264
266
267
268
269
270
272
PREFACE
T h e Econom ic Survey of Asia and the Far East, 1948 has broadly
the same scope as the 1947 Survey. T h e term s of reference of the
Econom ic Commission fo r Asia an d the F a r East have been widened
to include the K ingdom of N epal, w hich was adm itted as an associate
m em ber in 1948. I t has not been found possible, however, to cover N epal
effectively in this Survey, as efforts to secure adequate m aterial and
d a ta were unsuccessful. F o r reasons explained in the last Survey, Jap a n
an d K o rea are included w ithin the scope of the present Survey, and
the term “A F E region” is used to indicate their inclusion. T h e term
“ E C A F E region” is used in reference to the m ore restricted group of
T erritories covered by the Com mission’s term s of reference, namely,
British N o rth Borneo, B runei an d Saraw ak, B urm a, Ceylon, C hina, H ong
Kong, India, Indochinese Federation, Indonesia, F ederation of M alaya
and Singapore, N epal, Pakistan, Philippine R epublic and Siam. These
Territories, w ith the addition of J a p a n an d K orea,* constitute the wider
“A FE region” .
T h e econom ic p ictu re of C hina presented in this Survey remains
som ew hat incom plete an d even confused, owing to the uncertainty
w hether the returns of inform ation u n d er various heads covered the
entire Territory. T h e treatm en t of K orea has not been as full as in last
year’s Survey, since the flow of m aterial from th a t country ceased upon
the transfer of adm inistration to civil authority.
T h ank s to the interest in the publication of the Survey and the
resolution adopted by the Commission a t its fo u rth session in November
1948 appealing to the G overnm ents of the region to supply relevant
inform ation, the factual d a ta presented here are m ore detailed and
com plete th a n for 1947, b u t certain statistical deficiencies still rem ain
w hich can no t be rem edied u n til the organization of basic statistical d ata
by th e countries of the region is taken in h and. T his is particularly urgent
in the case of essential dem ographic data, including occupational distribution, statistics of industrial production (especially of small industries
an d cottage industries), transport, balance of paym ents, m ore p articu *
D u rin g 1949, K o re a h as b een a d d e d to th e T errito ries covered by th e C om mission’s term s of reference, a n d will, th e refo re, in fu tu re Surveys be includ ed in
th e “ E C A F E reg io n .”
xi
larly non-trade items, an d cost of living. T h e Commission’s efforts to
im prove the quality a n d q uantity of statistical d a ta in various fields by
organizing special studies should bear fru it in due course, a n d each year’s
Survey should benefit by the results of such studies.
C ertain differences in presentation betw een last year’s Su rvey and
the present Survey m ay be briefly indicated. A ch a p ter on “ C h a ra c te ristics of Asian Econom y” is provided as a background for the u n d e rsta n d ing of cu rren t developments, while an o th e r ch ap ter deals w ith certain
salient changes in the region’s econom y w hich have taken place since
the w ar an d w hich ap p ear to be of m ore th an a tem porary character.
In view of the im portance of the subjects, separate chapters have
been devoted respectively to Inflation a n d Price M ovem ents, C u rrency, Banking, an d Public Finance. T h ere is no ch a p te r on N ational
Incom e as no new d a ta were available throw ing light on changes in
1948; also the publication of N ational In c o m e Statistics, 1938-47, by
the Statistical Office of the U n ited N ations gives all available in fo rm ation in respect of six countries of the region. I t is to be regretted th a t it
was not found possible, although the Commission recom m ended it, to
include a section on Investm ent, w hich w ould reveal proportions of
national incom e devoted to investm ent, the sources of capital so invested,
and details of foreign capital investm ent. T his calls for studies on
national incom e and investm ent w hich are not yet available in the
region; some of these studies are, however, being planned.
T h e Survey is the co-operative work of all the substantive Divisions
working in collaboration w ith the R esearch Division of the Secretariat.
Acknowledgements are also due for the assistance rendered by the several
Divisions of the D epartm ent of Econom ic Affairs, by the P opulation
Division of the D ep artm en t of Social Affairs, a n d by the F ood and
Agriculture O rganization and o th er specialized agencies.
T h e year 1948 has, in general, been a year of all-round im provem ent
in the A FE region, although the progress cannot by any m eans be
regarded as substantial or satisfactory. Such progress as has been achieved
was tardy and uneven. M ost of the region has continued to be afflicted
by civil strife or other disturbances. M ore th a n three years afte r the end
of the war, countries find th a t in no b ranch of their econom y have they
attained prew ar levels. A gricultural production, w hich was slightly higher
th an in 1947, was still less th an prew ar. P roduction of cereals was
about 4 p er cent below the level of 1934-38, b u t th a t of fisheries continued
to be about one-half prew ar. Chem ical fertilizer consum ption, although
higher by about 8 p er cent th an in 1947, was below p re w ar by about
16 percent. T h e increase of over 10 p er cent over 1947 in livestock
an d w orking anim als is encouraging, bu t it will probably take several
x ii
years before p rew ar num bers can be reached, as th eir present strength
is barely 85 p er cent of prew ar. W ith the exception of rubber, w hich has
exceeded p rew ar levels of production, the position of other industrial
an d agricultural products rem ains unsatisfactory.
T h e disappointing progress achieved m ay be judged particularly in
term s of th e production of coal and iron. H andicapped by the disturbed
conditions in C h in a and Indochina, coal production has advanced only
slightly over the poor level of 1947, and is less th an 70 p er cent of p re war. If Ja p a n is excluded the position appears m uch worse, output
having declined appreciably com pared even w ith 1947. T h e production
of iron-ore has shown a very slight im provem ent over the 1947 level,
w hich was, however, only about one-third of prew ar.
T h e region’s o u tp u t of chem ical fertilizers, pig iron, steel, and
cem ent increased by one-fifth to one-third over 1947. If Ja p a n and
K o rea are excluded, the picture is ra th e r different; o u tp u t of pig iron
an d steel in th e E C A F E region declined, while there were very substantial increases in prod uctio n of chem ical fertilizers an d crude
petroleum .
In respect of textiles, w hich next to food are the most urgent need
of the people, the region has m ade little progress during the year. The
mill consum ption of raw cotton has rem ained m uch the same as in 1947
b u t is fa r below p rew ar owing to the continued disorganization of J a p anese industry. Y arn p roduction has shown only a slight increase owing
to shortages of raw cotton an d continued lack of m achinery for replacem ent. L ast year’s Survey em phasized the urgency of restoring the transp o rt system, w hich was suffering from w artim e deterioration and
destruction, b u t rehabilitation an d reconstruction continue to be
exceedingly low. T his has hindered not m erely agricultural and industrial p roduction b u t also the m ovem ent of food supplies to the food
deficit countries. T h e restoration of p rew ar capacity is still im peded by
political conditions an d shortages of m aterials, equipm ent and technical
personnel. Even w here restoration has been possible, it has often been
only tem porary, and transport has been subject to constant breakdowns
an d interruptions.
In the sphere of in ternational trade, 1948 m arked a distinct im provem ent over 1947 in all respects. T h e values of both exports and im ports
increased while there was a decline in the adverse balance of trade.
Exports from the E C A F E region rose by 34 per cent b u t im ports by
20 per cent, w ith the result th a t the adverse balance of trad e declined
by 31 p er cent. Some countries were able to re-establish a positive balance
of trade, while in certain others the negative balance declined significantly. In respect also of the E C A F E region’s trad e balance w ith the
xiii
U n ited States, there was an appreciable im provem ent. I n p artic u la r,
the region’s dependence on im ports from the U n ite d States was reduced,
the p rop ortion of im ports from the U n ited States to total im ports declining considerably in alm ost every country. T his redu ctio n in do llar deficit
was, however, the result m ainly of stringent restrictions on im ports from
the dollar region an d does n o t necessarily ind icate a gen uine im p ro v em ent arising from increased exports to a n d reduced im p o rt needs from
the U n ited States.
D espite the welcome trends of 1948, there can be no g ro u n d for
complacency. Instead of the p re w ar favourable trad e balances vis-à-vis
both the U n ited States an d the rest of th e w orld, there are still serious
deficits. T his drastic tu rn in the trad e balance, not com pensated by the
reductions which have taken place in the debit balance on no n -trad e
items, presents a grave th re a t to the external financial position of the
region. M oreover, certain factors adversely affecting the region’s trad in g
position, notably the relatively low price of ru b b e r a n d the increased
com petition from synthetic rubber, the declining d em an d fo r n a tu ra l
silk, and the decline in m etal exports, seem to be of a lasting character.
C om pared w ith prew ar, the position of th e E C A F E region has u n d e rgone considerable deterioration in respect of m any of the p rin cip a l com modities in international trade, in p articu lar, cereals, sugar, fats a n d oils,
cotton, silk, ju te an d h a rd fibres. O nly sustained efforts can m ain tain
the im proved trend of 1948.
Despite the efforts of several countries to com bat inflation, th e A F E
region is still subject to inflationary pressures, m ainly due to the continuing deficit financing of public expenditures, com bined in some cases
with excess of capital expenditure over the volum e of c u rre n t savings.
T h e increase in public revenue has been m ore th a n offset by increases
in expenditure, w ith the result th a t deficits in 1948 w ere larger th a n in
1947 except in the case of Ceylon, J a p a n a n d Siam . E x p en d itu re on
defence has continued to be an extrem ely heavy b u rd e n to th e countries
in the region. T h e position of industrial labour has rem ained m ore o r less
the same as in 1947, while in certain countries real wages have shown
some im provem ent. I t is encouraging to note th a t countries are taking
steps to reorganize th eir banking structure. T h e establishm ent of central
banks in three countries of the region is a notew orthy developm ent. Early
in 1949, Siam becam e a m em ber of the In tern atio n al M o n etary F u n d and
the In tern atio nal Bank for R econstruction and D evelopm ent; Ceylon and
Pakistan are expected to do so soon.
N early four years have elapsed since the end of the w ar, b u t the
process of reconstruction and rehabilitation of Asian econom y has been
very slow. Some satisfaction m ay be derived from the fa ct th a t during
xiv
these fo u r years, in spite of political difficulties an d civil strife, there has
been a n all-round im provem ent over the im m ediate postw ar situation; on
the o th er h an d , th e food position rem ains unsatisfactory. T h e four per
cent decline below prew ar in the production of cereals, the staple food
of Asians, has been accom panied by a 10 p er cent increase in the region’s
population. In stead of being a net exporter of rice, the region has become
a n et im p o rter of rice an d o th er cereals. T h e decline in per capita consum ption of food m ust inevitably have affected general living standards
an d h ea lth conditions. In the absence of reliable dem ographic data, it
is difficult to estim ate th e effects on th e incidence of m ortality an d sickness. T h e per capita consum ption of clothing has also failed to reach
prew ar levels. C apital investm ent has rem ained a t low levels, an d productivity of lab our appears to be less th an prew ar. T hus, the devastation
and econom ic consequences of the w ar, having left the region in a condition little short of collapse, continue to exercise th eir m alignant influence.
W hen m ore th a n h a lf th e w orld’s popu latio n lives in conditions of such
u tte r poverty, there can n o t exist a sound basis for enduring peace. M ore
sustained an d organized efforts are called for on the p a rt of Governm ents
and peoples if th e levels of living an d consum ption are to be m aintained
and im proved.
Econom ic Commission fo r Asia an d the Far East
P. S.
L
o k a n a t h a n
,
Executive Secretary
15 M ay, 1949
xv
SY M B O LS E M P L O Y E D
T h e following symbols have been used throu g h o u t this S u rvey:
. .
=
not available; — =
nil o r negligible.
I n referring to com binations of years, the use of an oblique stroke
— e.g., 1947/1948 — signifies a 12-m onth period (say from 1 July, 1947
to 30 Ju n e, 1948). T h e use of a hyphen — e.g., 1947-1948 — signifies
th e full period of calen d ar years covered (including the end years
ind icated ) either as an average o r total, as specified.
Unless the contrary is stated, the stan d ard u n it of weight used
th ro u g h o u t is th e m etric ton.
xvii
PART ONE
GENERAL
CHAPTER I
Characteristics of Asian Economy
Pr e d o m i n a n c e
of
A
gricultural
Production
T h e countries of Asia differ widely in race, language, religion and
o th er aspects of culture. Politically, socially an d economically, their
developments are not of the same order. Yet hom ogeneity in the midst
of diversity is ap p a ren t in all these countries; it lies in the predom inance
of agricultural production. P rim ary employm ent, as distinct from
em ploym ent in secondary or tertiary industry, is still dom inant in all
countries of the region. Even Ja p a n is not an exception in this respect.
O f the total population gainfully employed in Ja p a n in 1947, 52 per
cent were in agriculture, as com pared w ith 22 per cent in m anufacturing,
and 7 per cent in trade an d commerce. India, ranking second to Jap a n
in industrial developm ent, in 1931 h ad 67 p er cent engaged in agriculture, w ith 10 p er cent in m anufacturing an d 5 per cent in trade and
commerce. In o th er countries of the region,1 the proportion of population
gainfully em ployed in agriculture was m uch greater, being 89 per cent
for Siam, 73 p er cent for K orea, 70 per cent for Burm a, 69 per cent for
the Philippines an d 61 p er cent for M alaya; the proportions gainfully
em ployed in m an u factu rin g were respectively only 2 p er cent, 7 per cent,
11 p er cent, 11 p er cent an d 12 p er cent. T his predom inance of agriculture in Asian countries is in striking contrast to the industrially advanced
countries such as G reat Britain, the U nited States, G erm any and France,
w here the proportions of gainfully employed population in agriculture
were respectively 6 p er cent (1931), 17 per cent (1940), 26 per cent
(1939) and 36 p er cent (1 9 3 1 ).2
A griculture in Asian countries is a precarious occupation, not only
because it is dependent on nature, b u t also because in m any countries,
especially in South-east Asia, the crops grown are limited in variety,
catering for export ra th e r th an for hom e consum ption. As shown in
table 36 of the 1947 Survey, which gave the percentage distribution of
See table 42 in th e c h a p te r on L a b o u r; Infra.
2 Y earbook of L a b o u r Statistics, 1945-46, N in th Issue, In te rn a tio n a l L abour
Office, M o n treal, 1947, pp. 7-19.
1
3
4
P A R T I. G EN ERA L
the acreages of principal crops in selected countries of th e region, three
countries have over 70 p er cent of their total acreage u n d e r rice, nam ely,
Siam w ith 94 p er cent (1937-38), In d o c h in a w ith 83 p e r cent (1937)
an d B urm a w ith 72 p er cent (1940-41). O th e r countries, m ainly in
South-east Asia, also have a high percentage of acreage devoted to crops
produced largely for export, such as coconut, tea, sugar cane, ju te, abaca
an d rubber.
T h e dom inant position of agriculture, coupled w ith the lack of diversified agricultural production, renders the econom y of some countries
of the region extrem ely vulnerable. As shown by the experience of the
interw ar years, the prices of prim ary products such as rubber, tea, silk,
jute, etc., are subject to wide fluctuations. A small excess in supply over
dem and m ay easily depress prices very considerably. N o t only in times
of depression did the term s of trad e tu rn against the countries ex p o rting these prim ary products, b u t even in years of w orld-w ide shortage,
as now, some countries engaged in prim ary p rod uction are fo u n d to be
in an unfavourable situation as the prices of th eir products have not
risen as steeply as those of th eir principal im ports, notably textiles an d
foodstuffs. T h e situation has been m ade worse by th e em ergence of
synthetic products w hich com pete successfully w ith n atu ra l pro ducts such
as rubber and silk.
A lthough the region is predom inantly agricultural, some countries,
notably C hina, India, M alaya, Ceylon an d also Ja p a n , are a t present
suffering from food deficits. T h e situation is in some cases com paratively
new, and arises basically from the pressure of p o p ulation on land in the
countries concerned. In the last few years, it has been accen tu ated by
the fall in production of the rice-surplus countries in the region a n d by
difficulties in securing freely convertible foreign exchange fo r th e im p o rt
of food from other areas. This new situation brings o u t clearly the in herent weakness in some countries of u n d u e concentratio n on prim ary
production for export.
U n d e r -D e v e l o p m e n t o f I n d u s t r ia l R e s o u r c e s
Basic industrial resources, such as coal, petroleum , iron-ore and
hydroelectric sites, exist in varying degrees in countries of th e region.
A lthough knowledge is inadequate, reserves of basic m inerals are know n
to be substantial. D evelopm ent and utilization, however, h ave been slow,
a n d resources rem ain for the m ost p a rt relatively unexploited.
Because of the inadequacy of estimates, the E C A F E S ecretariat is
now u ndertaking a review of all surveys w hich have been m ade relating
to coal, iron-ore an d oth er ores used in the m aking of steel.
C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S O F A S IA N E C O N O M Y
5
T h e E C A F E Indu strial D evelopm ent W orking P arty p u t reserves
of coal in the region a t m ore th a n 300,000 m illion tons. M ost of these
reserves are in C h in a; In d ia also has large quantities. K now n reserves
of an th racite are concentrated in C hina an d In d o ch in a; of coking coal
in C hina and, to a large extent, in India. Ja p a n also has coking coal
deposits b u t these are not of good quality. T h e know n coal reserves of
o th er countries in the region are relatively small an d are of m edium to
poor quality.
A gainst the large total reserves, coal production has been relatively
small. M axim um an n u al o u tp u t of coal for the entire region has been
only about one-quarter of the cu rren t U n ited States output. M echanization of coal-mines has m ade little progress, an d m ining is carried on
m ainly by labour. M any deposits have not been developed a t all.
E stim ated reserves of petroleum are small — less th an 3 p er cent
of the w orld total. H ow ever, large parts of the region have been in adequately explored for petroleum . In 1947 the region’s total o u tp u t
represented less th an 1 per cent of w orld production. T h e largest known
reserves an d the greatest production of petroleum in the region are in
Indonesia. Petroleum resources of B urm a and Brunei are also substantial.
A lthough little prod uction has taken place it is believed th a t reserves
exist in C hina. P etroleum is also produced in sm aller volum e in Pakistan,
In d ia a n d Jap a n .
Iron-ore reserves of the region are considerable, and exist in a
n um ber of countries. In d ia, followed by C hina, has the largest known
reserve. T h e Philippines an d M alaya also have rich deposits w hich were
form erly exploited for export to Jap an . Sm aller reserves exist in other
countries of th e region. E xcept in In d ia an d C hina, an d to a m uch
lesser extent in Ja p a n , coking coal an d iron-ore deposits in close proxim ity have not yet been discovered in o th er countries. K now n coking
coal reserves are no t widely distributed an d this handicaps the greater
exploitation of iron-ore resources.
T o tal po tential hydroelectric pow er resources of the region are substantial, b u t the installed capacity is only a fraction of the potential.
J a p a n alone has m ore th a n twice as m uch installed capacity as the other
countries of the region com bined. E xcluding Jap a n , installed hydroelectric capacity in the region is only about 5 per cent of the potential.
L o w Productivity
A no th er characteristic of Asian econom y is its extrem ely low p ro ductivity; this arises from a n u m b er of factors, social, political and
economic. A m ong th e econom ic factors the m ore im p o rtan t are the
6
P A R T I.
GENERAL
predom inance of agricultural p roduction along trad itio n al lines a n d the
extrem ely lim ited use of m echanical pow er as a source of energy.
Despite the fact th a t agricultural pro d u ctio n along trad itio n al lines
in Asian countries calls for the em ploym ent of a m u ch h ig h er p ro p o rtio n
of total population th a n is required in m ore industrialised nations, the
yield p er area u n it is m uch lower th a n in the latter. T his is illustrated
by the com parative yields for the th ree principal A sian crops, nam ely,
rice, w heat an d raw cotton. T h e 1946 w heat yield in quintals p e r hectare,
10.5 in C hina P roper,1 10.2 in Ja p a n , 7.5 i n K o re a a n d 6.5 in In d ia,
com pared poorly w ith 11.6 in the U n ited States. T h e highest w heat
yield in Asian countries (10.5 quintals p er h ectare for C h in a ), was less
th an one-third of the highest yield in E uropean countries (33.1 quintals
per hectare for D e n m a rk ). T h e rice yield p er hectare, 25.2 in C h in a
P roper, 20.4 in K orea, and 12.3 in In d ia, com pared poorly w ith th a t
in Italy (38.5) or Spain (42.6), m ainly because of extension of rice
production to inferior an d inadequately irrigated soils. Ja p a n , however,
reached a yield of 36.9 quintals p er hectare. Similarly, the 1946 cotton
yield per hectare, 2.2 quintals in C hina P roper, an d 1.1 quintals in
India, was lower th an th a t for the U n ited States (2 .6 ), M exico (2.7)
or the U nion of Soviet Socialist Republics (3 .7 ). T his g re at disparity
in crop yields between Asian an d o th er countries arises p artly from differences in soil an d clim ate an d p artly from o th er factors, of w hich
perhaps the outstanding one is the com parative application of labour
and capital. Broadly speaking, w hereas Asian agriculture has a high
labour intensity, E uropean and N o rth A m erican agriculture has a high
capital intensity.
T h e intensive application of labour to agricultural pro d u ctio n re sults in low productivity of farm labour. A ccording to one study,2
C hina’s average production of grain-equivalent p er m an-equivalent for
a sample of 168 localities is 1,400 kilogrammes, o r about one-fourteenth
of the average of 20,000 kilogram m es for the U n ited States. T his low
production in C hina per m an-equivalent is the real reason for the low
standard of living as com pared w ith the U n ited States. I t also explains
why on e-qu arter of the total population who are on farm s in the U n ited
States can provide m ore agricultural products per capita th a n can
three-quarters of the total population of C hina.
A m ong o ther factors responsible for low productivity in the region
are lack of savings to develop im proved techniques, w asteful systems
1 “ C h in a P ro p e r” o riginally refe rre d to th e 18 densely p o p u la te d provinces, thus
excluding M a n c h u ria , T a iw a n , T ib e t, In n e r M ongolia, S inkiang, etc. See ta b le 1
for p resent p o p u la tio n a n d area.
2 Buck, J o h n L ossing: L a n d U tilization in C h in a , C o m m ercial Press, S h an g h a i,
1947, pp. 268, 283.
C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S O F A S IA N E C O N O M Y
7
of land tenure (including fragm entation of holdings), and social customs
affecting land utilization (e.g., grave-land in C h in a ) .
Pr e s s u r e
o f
P o pu l a t io n
o n
Resour ces
T h e pressure of population on land has always been acute in Asia
a n d the F a r East, especially in C hina, In d ia and parts of South-east
Asia, an d also in J a p a n and K orea. D espite the high m ortality rate, the
ra te of n atu ra l increase, w hich in some countries is as high as 1.5 p er cent
p er annum , has been m aintained by a high fertility-rate. In countries
w here m odern im provem ents in public h ealth and sanitation have been
introduced in the wake of industrialisation, there has been a decline in
the death -rate w ithout as yet a corresponding reduction in the b irth rate. I n Ind ia, the extension of m o d em transportation has also helped
to reduce the h um an loss from fam ines an d this has contributed to the
decline in the d eath -rate betw een 1921 an d 1941, b u t there has not been
a proportionate decline in the birth-rate. U nlike the surplus of p o pu lation, following E u ropean industrialisation in the nineteenth century,
w hich was able to m igrate on a large scale to the A m erican continent,
the increasing pop u latio n of Asia an d the F a r E ast has n o t been able
to find a n adequ ate outlet in new lands. T h e pressure of population on
land in the region has thus become increasingly acute as m odern science
and technology have been applied. Even in Jap a n , w here before 1940 the
expanding industrial economy was able to absorb a rap id population
increase in u rb a n areas and to p revent the developm ent of excessive
population density on the land, the previously declining tren d of the
b irth-rate has, since 1940, been at least tem porarily arrested while the
d eath -rate has fu rth e r declined; so th a t the rate of n atu ral increase has
reached a high level. M oreover, the increase in J a p a n ’s population has
been heavily reinforced by the rep atriatio n of Japanese nationals from
overseas.
P opulation density in m ost countries of the region has risen to a
very high level. T h e A FE region, w ith an area of 19,032,000 square
kilometres an d a p op ulation of 1,142,332,000 in 1947, h ad an average
density of 60 persons p er square kilometre. However, as shown in
ch a p ter I I on “ Population T re n d s” , alm ost 900 m illion people in Japan,
K orea, C h in a Proper, T aiw an, H o n g Kong, Singapore, India, Ceylon,
Ja v a an d M ad u ra, or 80 p er cent of the region’s population, are concen trated in an area of 8 m illion square kilometres, or 42 p er cent of
the region’s area; for this area there is thus an average density of 112
persons per square kilometre. T his roughly corresponds to the average
density for In d ia (10 5), Ceylon (104) and C h in a P roper (9 9 ), b u t is
8
P A R T I.
GENERAL
lower th a n th a t fo r Ja v a a n d M a d u ra (3 8 2 ), J a p a n (2 0 4 ), a n d
K o rea (12 5).
T his average density of 100 to 200 persons p e r square kilom etre in
m ost countries of the region, w hich w ith the exception of J a p a n are still
agricultural, is high even in com parison w ith industrialised countries.
F o r exam ple, th e average density in 1947 fo r the U n io n of Soviet Socialist
R epublics was only 9, for th e U n ite d States 18, a n d fo r F ran c e 73.
Y et average density p er u n it of a rea often tends to u nderestim ate the
pressure of population, as the prop ortio n of cultivated lands to to tal area
m ay vary considerably, e.g., from 8 p e r cent for In d o c h in a to 79 p er
cent for Jav a .1 T h e p op ulation density in term s of cultivated a rea th e re fore tends to be m uch h igher th a n th a t in term s of total area. F o r the
region as a whole, it is 404 persons p er square kilom etre of cultivated
land. F or T aiw an it is as high as 645, for the Philippines 494, J a v a an d
M ad u ra 452, In d ochina 451, Ceylon 444, C h in a P ro p er 425, P akistan
408, Siam 347, In d ia 345, F ed eratio n of M alay a a n d S ingapore 290,
M an ch u ria 245, an d B urm a 240. In Ja p a n the equivalent figure is 1,300,
while in K o rea it is 629.
Po v er t y
T h e fo ur m ain characteristics of A sian econom y outlined above
point to one inevitable result, poverty. T h e increased w ealth of th e n in eteenth and tw entieth centuries has been highly co ncen trated in a few
countries, and only a small proportion of it has been created in countries
of Asia an d the F a r East. As sum m ed u p by one w riter, “ the U n ite d
States, G reat B ritain, F ran ce an d G erm any, representing 13 p e r cen t of
the w orld’s population, ow ned alm ost 50 p e r cent of the w orld ’s goods,
an d m ore th an two-thirds of th e w orld’s incom e was reserved fo r less
th an one-third of the w orld’s population.” 2
W hen there is pressure of population on th e m eans of subsistence,
poverty tends to be self-perpetuating. T h e food available p e r h e a d of
population is little m ore th an is necessary fo r m ere m aintenance, som etimes even a little less. T h ere is no source of energy fo r m ore active
work in the present an d no m argin for saving from w hich ca p ital can
be accum ulated to assist production in the future. I t is only w hen the
available calories p er head of popu lation substantially exceed 2,000 p er
day th a t econom ic progress can be expected. A m arked developm ent
of energy an d accum ulation of capital can hardly be expected till a
level of 3,000 calories p er h ead p er day is attain ed. So long as the
1 E co n o m ic S u rv e y of Asia a n d th e Far E ast, 1947, p. 49.
2 R o senstein-R odan, “ T h e In te rn a tio n a l D ev elo p m e n t of E con o m ically B a ck w a rd
A reas” , In te rn a tio n a l A ffairs, V ol. I I , N o. 2, A pril, 1944, p. 158.
C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S O F A S IA N E C O N O M Y
9
grow th of pop ulatio n keeps pace w ith the grow th of production in the
E C A F E region, th ere can be no ad eq uate increase in the rate of saving,
the accum ulation of capital o r th e productivity of the individual. But
if ever the rate of increase of production outstrips the rate of increase
of population, savings m ay begin to accum ulate and capital resources
to grow m ore rapidly in each successive period.
A rough indication of the relative poverty of the region m ay be obtain ed from national incom e statistics. T h e Econom ic Survey of Asia and
the Far East, 1947 contained the following estimates of per capita
incom e for selected countries in term s of 1946 U.S. dollars: Ceylon $91,
Philippines $88, In d ia $43, Indonesia $35 and C hina $23; the equivalent
figure for Ja p a n was p u t a t less th an $100. By com parison the per capita
incom e of the U n ited States in 1946 was $1,269 an d th a t of the U nited
K ingdom £ 1 6 5 o r about $660.
C H A PT E R
II1
Population Trends
Gen er a l
C o n s id e r a t io n s
A n adeq uate understanding of the dem ographic situation of any
country requires a t least two basic types of statistics: (1) periodic census
figures giving the size of the p o p u latio n an d some of its characteristics,
especially sex and age com position; a n d (2) an n u a l statistics of births
an d deaths. M any countries of the region cannot provide these m inim um
data.
C hina, occupying over one-half of the territory of the A F E region
an d having an estim ated population of 461 m illion in 1947, has never
had a national census of population along m o d em lines, th ou gh one has
been planned for 1950. Almost all the o th er areas included in the region
have records of censuses taken in the past b u t few can offer census figures
showing the situation after W orld W a r I I w hich has influenced th e p o p ulation a t least to some extent in all countries an d in some cases has p ro foundly affected its size an d structure. Postw ar censuses have been conducted only in the Philippines, Siam, the F ed eration of M alaya, Ceylon,
Jap a n and South K orea. F o r some of these countries detailed results
are yet to be m ade available. Before the w ar some countries like In d ia
and Pakistan, Burm a, N orth Borneo an d In d o c h in a h a d a long series
of decennial censuses, the first census fo r In d ia going back as fa r as
1872. O thers have not been so regular in taking censuses. T h e P hilippines
had no census betw een 1918 and 1939; M alaya h ad none betw een 1931
an d 1947.
A n efficient system for the registration of births an d deaths is the
exception ra th e r th an the rule in the region; consequently it is very difficult to gain a pro p er appreciation of the rates a t w hich p o p u latio n is
changing due to the excess of births over deaths. T his is p articu larly so
in countries w ithout a long series of censuses, w here th e popu latio n figures from each new census, though perhaps m ore accurate th a n the re1 P re p are d by th e P o p u la tio n Division of th e D e p a rtm e n t of E co n o m ic A ffairs,
U n ite d N ations.
10
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
11
suits of previous enum erations, m ay no t be exactly com parable w ith the
previous figures an d therefore m ay not give accurate m easures of p o p u lation changes. I n small countries w hich are subject to a large volum e of
m igration, the absence of m igration statistics coupled w ith unreliability of
vital statistics m ake it doubly difficult to estim ate the rate of n atu ral in crease even if good census statistics are available.
T hese statistical deficiencies ren der it alm ost impossible to draw conclusions about dem ographic developm ents of the region in any p articular
year. All th a t can be done in this respect is to draw attention to some
im p o rtan t phenom ena, such as population m ovem ents, epidem ic diseases
of unusual severity, or civil disorders, of w hich knowledge happens to be
available. T h e censuses and the isolated vital statistics, however, w ith all
their deficiencies, give valuable indications of long-term dem ographic developm ents an d problem s, w hen studied against the background of the
econom ic an d social conditions of the area, an d of previous experience
in other parts of the world.
As em phasized in chap ter I, the economy of the region is prim arily
agricultural. Some areas have specialized in cash crops, b u t most concentrate prim arily on crops for hom e consum ption. T h e level of living is low,
the h ealth and n utritional status of the people poor, and death-rates high.
M uch needs to be done to reorganize the economy so as to achieve more
effective utilization of n atu ra l resources.
In considering long-run dem ographic developm ent, attention has,
therefore, to be focussed on the possibility th a t the application of m odern
science an d technology in the region m ay be widely extended. Im proved
agricultural techniques, greater industrialisation, developm ent of transp o rt a n d com m unications an d public health m easures m ay greatly alter
the past trends of population developm ent. I n some of these fields countries of the region have already been applying the knowledge accum ulated in the West, an d there are reasons to believe th a t fu rth e r developm ents will occur fairly rapidly, in some countries a t least, partly on the
initiative of the countries themselves a n d partly through the efforts of
such intern atio nal agencies as the Food an d A griculture O rganization
an d the W orld H e alth O rganization. Such econom ic an d social developm ents have an im p o rtan t effect on population grow th for they tend to
reduce death-rates.
T h e fact th a t the populations of the relatively under-developed areas
in Asia have m anaged to survive in face of th eir high death-rates is proof
of the high prevailing birth-rates. W hereas the application of technical
knowledge is likely to have a great effect in reducing the death-rate,
th ere is no reason to expect an im m ediate effect on the birth-rate, which
12
P A R T I.
GENERAL
is intim ately related to social institutions a n d customs th a t are n o t easily
changed. T h e n et result is therefore likely to be a w idening of th e m arg in
betw een the n u m b er of births an d deaths a n d an acceleration of p o p u la tion grow th. I t appears th a t a process of this kind was the m ain e x p la n ation of the rap id grow th of the E u rop ean populations d u rin g th e last
two centuries. A sim ilar process also appears to have been u n d e r w ay in
some oriental com m unities.1
Even a m oderate reduction in the death-rate, m ain tain ed over a
long period w ithout a corresponding change in the b irth -rate, will ev e n tu ally have a great effect on p op ulation size. F o r exam ple, a p o p u latio n
w ith a death-rate of 30 an d a b irth -rate of 40 p er 1,000 p o p u latio n p e r
an n u m has a n atu ra l increase of 1 p e r cent p er an n u m w hich, if co n tin ued, will double the pop ulatio n in abo u t 70 years. A red u ctio n of oneth ird in the d eath-rate of such a po pu lation w ith no change in th e b irth rate w ould raise the grow th ra te from 1 to 2 p e r cent p e r a n n u m a n d
cut the tim e required to double the population from 70 to 35 years. R ates
of increase of the order of 1 p er cent p er an n u m have been observed in
some countries of the region, an d census figures suggest rates of th e o rd e r
of 2 p er cent in others. W hether the latter increases are real o r w h eth er
they are due to the increasing accuracy of successive censuses rem ains
problem atical, b u t their im plications deserve serious consideration in
view of the dem ographic changes th a t are likely to follow the application
of m odern science to living conditions in these countries.
T h o ugh the countries of the region share the com m on characteristic
of being industrially backw ard as contrasted w ith the W est, th ere are essential differences in their social, cultural and political backgrounds
which have led to variations in th eir dem ographic situation a n d th e ir
population problems. I t is, therefore, ap p ro p riate to consider the dem ographic problem s of each country in the region.
D e m o g r a ph y
o f
C o u n t r ie s
o f
t h e
R e g io n
T ab le 1 gives 1947 m id-year population estim ates an d density figures
for each country of the region. In providing these returns, the S tatistical
Office of the U n ited N ations w arned against placing too m u ch reliance
1
T h e acceleratin g ra te of p o p u la tio n g ro w th in J a p a n d u rin g th e second h a lf
of th e n in e te e n th c e n tu ry is p resum ed to have been d ue to a decline in m o rta lity
o ccu rring earlier a n d m ore rap id ly th a n a decline in fertility. (I r e n e B. T a e u b e r
a n d F ra n k W. N otestein, “ T h e C h a n g in g F ertility of th e J a p a n e s e ” , P op u la tio n
Studies, V olum e I, N u m b e r I , 1947.) A m ong th e Parsees in I n d i a th e d e a th -ra te
sta rte d dim inishing a t th e beginning of this cen tu ry , w ith n o su b stan tia l re d u c tio n
in the birth -rate s u ntil 1925; ( C h a n d r a Sekar, C ., “ Some A spects of Parsee D e m o g r a p h y .” H u m a n Biology, V o lum e 20, N u m b e r 2, 1948) so t h a t th e ir r a te of
n a tu ra l increase rose continuously, re a ch in g a m a x im u m in 1917, th e y e a r p r io r to
th e o u tb re ak of th e w orld-w ide influenza p an d em ic.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
T
a b l e
13
1
Population and Area of A F E Countries, 1947
Populationa,
mid-year estimate,
1947 (thousands)
Country
B ritish B o r n e o .................
N o rth B orneo . . . .
B ru n ei ......................
S a r a w a k ................. ..
B u rm a ................................
C h i n a ..................................
C h in a P ro p e r . . . .
M a n c h u r i a ...............
T a iw a n ....................
R e m a in d e r of C h in a
H o n g K o n g ......................
In d ia ..................................
P a k istan ...........................
In d o c h in a ........................
A n n a m ......................
C a m b o d ia ...............
C o c h in -C h in a . . . .
L aos ...........................
T o n k i n ......................
I n d o n e s i a ...........................
Java, M ad u ra . . . .
O th e r i s l a n d s ..........
J a p a n ..................................
K o r e a .......................................
M a la y a .............................
Fed. of M a la y a . . . .
Singapore ...............
N epal ..................................
P h i l i p p i n e s ........................
S i a m ....................................
T
otal
878
5
191
330
48
500
17,000
6,879
4 6 1 ,0 05 c
76
4
109
5
6
1,750
331,750
72,206
27,000
4,010
1,070
36
4,621
1
3,161
935h
740
99
37
170
4
1,750
105
77
37
7,200d
3 ,200e
5,6 0 0 e
49
18
86
5
84
148
181
65
231
116
1,200e
9 ,800d
6 9 ,0 00 f
8
28
104
48
605
66
9,736
399,172
38,184
6,126
17,523
1,904
47,000
22,000
78,025
27,700
5,819
6,4 5 0g
19,511
17,359
..... 1,142,332
Population
density (per
sq. km .)
Areab
(thousands of
square kilometres)
36
132
1,772
382
12
204
125
43
382
221
136
135.3
0.7
4,878
941
140h
296
518
1 9 ,0 3 2
36
1,344
46
66
A
v e r a g e ..
34
60
a U n ite d N ations. S tatistical Office. T o ta l Population fo r each A rea o f the
W orld, 1 N ovem ber, 1948, p p . 7-9.
b U n ite d N ations. D e p a rtm e n t of E conom ic Affairs. E co n o m ic S u rv e y of Asia
a n d the Far East, 1947, S h an g h ai, 1948, p. 25.
c E stim ate of p o p u la tio n as of July, 1947, fro m Statistical Yearbook of the
R ep u b lic o f C hina, D ire c to ra te of Statistics, N an k in g , J u n e , 1948 (in C h in e se ).
T h e figure published by th e U n ite d N ations S tatistical Office is 463.2 million.
d Figure for 1943.
e Fig ure fo r 1944.
f T h e estim ate he re is fo r 1948, a n d is p re p a red by th e au tho rities in B atavia
in a special su p p le m en t fo r th e 1948 S urvey. T h e figure fo r m idy ear 1947, as
o b ta in ed fro m th e D ire c to r-G e n e ra l of N e th e rla n d s C e n tra l B ureau of Statistics
a n d p ublished by th e U n ite d N atio n s S tatistical Office, is 76 million.
g P opulation a n d V ita l Statistics R epo rts, Series A, No. 1, U n ite d N ations
S tatistical Office, 1 Ja n u a ry , 1949, p. 7.
h T h e S ta te sm a n ’s Y earbook, 1948. p. 171.
14
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
on their accuracy, rem arking th a t “lack of continuity betw een censuses
an d estim ates m ay be evident, as well as inclusion of estim ates w hich are
official in ch aracter b u t n o t generally accepted.” Nevertheless, these figures serve to show the general m agnitu de of popu latio n in th e various
areas.
Tables showing the age distribution a n d u rb a n -ru ra l ra tio fo r selected areas, were presented in last year’s Survey. T h e p o p u latio n of the
region is in general m uch younger th an th a t of the W estern E u ro p ean
nations and the U n ited States; th a t is, the A F E countries have larger
proportions of children an d sm aller proportions of older persons, in d icating a higher b irth-rate an d a higher d eath -rate. A n occupational distribution table is given in ch ap ter V I I on L abour. Analysis of th e rate
of population grow th is m ore com plicated; it will be taken u p in th e discussion of individual countries w hich follows.
China
C hina is said to possess “a large unbroken record of p o p u latio n estim ates.” 1 These estimates, however, were not obtained by direct en u m e ration of the population. In the absence of reliable censuses covering the
whole country, little is know n of the size of the p o p u latio n of C h in a or
the rate a t which it has been changing. W illcox estim ated th a t C h in a ’s
population h ad increased from 70 m illion in 1650 to 342 m illion in
1929.2 C arr Saunders concluded th a t C h in a’s po pu latio n h a d increased
from 150 m illion in 1650 to 450 m illion in 1933.3 T h om p so n places the
present population of C hina P roper betw een 325 a n d 375 m illion.4 T h e
official estim ate of the po pulation of C h in a P ro p er fo r 1947 was 399 m illion, b u t th a t for the whole of C hina, including M an c h u ria, T a iw a n an d
outlying provinces, was 461 million.
As im p o rtan t as the present size of the Chinese p o p u latio n is its rate
of growth. O n this subject also, com prehensive statistics are lacking. A ttem pts a t national registration of births a n d deaths are of recent origin
an d have not yet advanced fa r enough to yield reliable d a ta on a wide
basis. H owever, vital statistics have been o btained by concerted efforts
in certain small com m unities. These undo ubtedly are of g reat value in
appreciating fu tu re population trends. A study in K iangyin, a com m unity of about 20,000 inhabitants in the Y angtze delta, d u rin g the period
1 T a C h en , P opulation in M o d e r n China. T h e U n iv ersity of C h icag o Press,
C hicago, Illinois, 1946, p. 1.
2 W. F . W illcox, In te rn a tio n a l M igrations. N ew Y ork, N a tio n a l B u reau of E co nom ic R esearch, 1931, I I . pp. 35-75.
3A. M . C a rr Saunders, W orld P opulation. L o n d o n , O x fo rd U n iv ersity Press,
1937, pp. 37-39.
4 W. S. T h o m p so n , Populatio n and Peace in th e Pacific, U n iv ersity of C h icag o
Press, C hicago, llinois. 1946. p. 178.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
15
1931-35 showed an an n u al b irth -rate of 45.1 an d a death-rate of 38.7
per 1,000 population, w ith an infant m ortality rate of 240.9 p er 1,000
births.1 These figures give a natu ral increase of 6.4 p er 1,000 per annum ,
but “as these birth-rates and death-rates were known to be low, especially the d eath -rate” , the actual n atu ra l increase rate m ay well have been
lower. In T in g H sien h ealth area, the birth-rate for a population of
14,000 was found to be 39.6 per 1,000 in 1933-342. T h e death-rate
dropped from 29.2 in 1933 to 23.8 in 1934 and increased to 29.1 per
1,000 in 1935.
I t m ay safely be presum ed th a t the Chinese birth-rate, in norm al
times, is over 40 p er 1,000 population. T h e death-rate, according to
Thom pson, “probably seldom falls below 35 and th en only u n d er conditions quite exceptional in C hina such as in a small area where there is
some h ealth work or in a ‘good’ year w hen the harvest is ab u n d a n t and
epidem ic diseases are m ild.” In a country w ith such a vast population,
changes due to m igration across the frontiers are relatively unim portant,
the bulk of the change being brought about by n atu ral causes, namely,
births an d deaths.
F am ine an d food shortage are com m on in C hina, and in a year when
crops fail, the lack of transportation makes relief measures difficult.
M eagre facilities of public health and sanitation coupled with the low
vitality of the people are responsible for regular outbreaks of epidemic
diseases like smallpox, typhoid an d cholera which makes the death-rate
soar above the birth-rate. T h e fluctuations thereby introduced into the
rate of n atu ra l increase are well dem onstrated by the following figures
for H siao Chi, Kiangyin, abstracted from the K iangyin area study m entioned previously:
year
Birth-rate per 1,000
midyear population
Death-rate per 1,000
midyear population
1931-32
1932-33
1933-34
1934-35
48.3
44.1
40.0
48.0
42.8
36.1
52.0
23.8
Natural increase rate
(birth-rate minus
death rate)
5.5
8.0
— 12.0
24.2
In recent years famines in the north-w est, drought in the north,
floods in the lower Yangtze Valley, the hardships of W orld W ar I I and
the subsequent internal disturbances have cost great loss of life in China.
T h e displacem ent of very large num ber of persons has also occurred,
creating new dem ographic problems. Available evidence indicates th at
C h in a’s grow th of population even in peaceful times is m ainly determ ined
1 Ib id ., p. 180.
2 C . C. C h en , “ T h e R u ra l Public H e a lth E x p e rim e n t in T in g H sien, C h in a ,”
M ilb a n k M e m o ria l F u n d Q uarterly, Vol. X L V , N o. 1, J a n . 1936, pp. 66-80.
16
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
by m ortality. W hen peace returns a n d organized efforts are m ade to im prove th e stan d ard of living, it is reasonable to expect a drop in m ortality
rates. Unless the high b irth-rate is reduced, a large increase in p o p u la tion will result.
M anchuria. L ittle is know n precisely of the po p u latio n trends in
M anchuria. O n the basis of the inconsistent a n d unreliable estim ates of
population of this area d u ring the last few decades, it can only be said
th a t M an c h u ria’s population a t the end of 1940 is som ewhere a b o u t 35
m illion.1 By com parison w ith C hina Proper, M a n c h u ria is sparsely p o p ulated, an d therefore m ight in fu tu re play an im p o rta n t p a rt in relieving
pressure of population of neighbouring areas. I n 1939, th e C hinese
form ed about 95 p er cent of the population. Chinese m igration into M a n churia started towards the end of the eighteenth century, b u t it was not
until 1878 th a t the official b arrier to m igration into th e a rea was lifted.
Since then a steady stream of Chinese peasants has flowed in to M a n churia, especially from the N o rth C h in a provinces of S h an tu n g an d
H opei. T h e M ukden incident in 1931 set a tem porary check to C hinese
im m igration an d led in 1932 to the form ulation of elaborate schemes by
the Japanese G overnm ent to settle 100,000 subsidized farm in g families
in the area w ithin ten years. Japanese im m igration betw een 1932 an d
1938 was reported to consist of 10,000 families a n d 20,000 boy settlers
(unm arried m en between 16 an d 2 0 ).2 K oreans also started m igrating
into M an ch u ria u n d er controlled schemes d u ring the early thirties. A t
the conclusion of W orld W ar II , M a n c h u ria again cam e into Chinese
possession, and Japanese nationals also were repatriated.
Taiwan. A fter the conclusion of the first S ino-Japanese W a r of
1894-95, T aiw an (Form osa) was ceded to Ja p a n . T h e re was a rap id
grow th of population in T aiw an, especially in the two decades before
W orld W ar II. T h e vital statistics show th a t d u rin g the period 1920-24,
the average b irth -rate was 41 p er 1,000 an d the d ea th -rate 26 p e r 1,000,
giving a rate of n atu ra l increase of 1.5 p e r cent p er year.3 D u rin g the
period 1933-37 the birth-rate was 46 an d the d eath -rate 21, giving a
ra te of n atu ra l increase of 2.5 p er cent p er year.4 T hese vital statistics are
consistent w ith the census figures for corresponding periods. Between
1920 and 1925 the population increased from 3.7 m illion to 4.0 m illion,
giving a rate of increase of 1.6 per cent p er year. Between 1930 a n d 1940
it increased from 4.6 to 5.9 million, the rate being 2.5 p e r cent p er year.
1 W. S. T h o m p so n , op. cit., p. 80.
2 J o h n R . S tew art, Far E astern S u rvey, V ol. V I I I , p. 42.
3 T h e Japan Y ear B ook, 1927, p. 641.
4 A n d re w J. G rajd an zev , Formosa T o d a y. In s titu te of Pacific R ela tio n s, 1942.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
17
T aiw a n ’s p op ulation is largely Chinese, the proportion being about
94 p er cent in 1940. T h e Japanese population increased from 60,000 in
1905 to 167,000 in 1920, an d by the end of 1938 was estim ated a t 309,000.
Since the end of W orld W ar II, the Japanese, totalling about 480,000,
have been retu rn ed to their hom eland. T h e estim ated m id-year p o p ulation of 6.1 m illion for 1947, after allowing for the organized population
m ovem ent after the w ar, gives a rate of increase in population of 1.6
per cent p er year since 1940.
In d ia and Pakistan
T h e first census in In d ia was taken in 1872, although it did not
cover the entire country. T h e next census in 1881, an d each subsequent
decennial census including the last one in 1941, covered practically the
whole country. B urm a was adm inistered as a p a rt of In d ia until 1937 and
its population was included in the In d ia n census. T h e creation of Pakista n as a separate S tate on 15 August 1947 has now reduced the area
a n d population included u n d e r the designation of India. No population
census has been taken in In d ia or Pakistan since their separation nor has
there been pro p er accounting of the large-scale m ovem ent of people betw een these two areas as a result of the political division. T h e political
status of w hat were form erly known as the In d ian States, in contrast to
British In d ia, has undergone a great change since In d ia acquired sovereignty. Some of them have been form ed into a federation; some have
been annexed to neighbouring provinces an d some, like K ashm ir, have as
yet an undefined position. In such circum stances it is difficult to be p recise about the size of the population in either country a t the present
time. P artly for this reason an d in view of the fact th a t the separation
has been only recent, In d ia as it existed before the p artitio n of the
States (i.e. including Pakistan, b u t excluding B urm a) is taken as the unit
for consideration in this chapter.
Between 1872 an d 1941 In d ia ’s population, as reconstructed from
the census returns by allowing for the inclusion of new territory and for
im provem ent of m ethod, increased from 256 m illion to 389 million, or
by 52 p er cent. Figures showing the rate of grow th of the population in
the different decades are given below:
Year
1872
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
Population in millions
256.4
259.3
283.0
285.6
303.0
305.7
338.2
389.0
Per cent intercensal increase
1.4
9.5
0.9
6.1
0.9
10.6
15.0
18
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
T h e striking features of the rates of increase are th eir wide flu ctu ation an d the fact th at, un til 1931, a period of lower increase was always
followed by one m uch higher, an d vice versa. Between 1872 a n d 1921
the rate of population grow th fluctuated in accordance w ith the occurrence of famines and epidemics. T h e low rate of increase in the period
1872-81 is ascribed to the great fam ine of 1876 to 1878, w hich no t only
caused enorm ous loss of life directly b u t also led to the outbreak of w idespread epidemics. Fam ine was again responsible for the low rate of in crease during the decade 1891-1901. T h e influenza p andem ic of 1918,
which is said to have taken a toll of not less th an 8.5 m illion, is reflected
by the low increase from 1911 to 1921. F rom 1921 to 1931, the p o p u la tion grew at an average rate of 1.0 p er cent p er annum , an d the corresponding rate as recorded for the period 1931-41 was 1.4. T h e accuracy
of these figures, especially the latter, is in doubt. T h e census com m issioner
in his report on the 1941 census points out th a t whereas d u rin g the 1931
census the civil disobedience m ovem ent m ade it difficult to obtain a good
response from the public, in 1941 there was an excess of zeal on th e p a r t
of some sections of the population to inflate the figures. R em ark in g m ore
specifically on the intercensal increase he states, “ the heavy Bom bay an d
Bengal increase is undoubtedly due to und er-en u m eratio n in 1941 being overtaken now.” 1 Even if the recorded intercensal increases were
exaggerated, their general m agnitu d e is such as to create d o u b t ab o u t the
possibility of a long-term continuance of such rates in a country w hich already is finding it difficult to im prove its low level of living.
Since m igration is known to have little influence on In d ia ’s p o p ulation size, the im p o rtan t questions th a t arise a r e : (1) w h eth er a d o w n w ard trend in death-rates has been established and, if so, w h eth er f u r ther reductions are to be expected considering the possible intensification
of public health and sanitation measures an d attem pts to im prove the
level of living; (2) w hether birth-rates have shown any tendency to
dim inish at all, for otherwise, w ith falling death-rates, a ra p id increase
in population would be expected. Precise answers to eith er of these
questions cannot be given, for in spite of a long history of registration
of births and deaths, the vital statistics are far from complete.
However, some indications of the levels an d trends of fertility and
m ortality are available. T h e following birth-rates and death-rates for the
different decades have been estim ated by Kingsley Davis, using indirect
m ethods and relying m ainly on census statistics.2
1 Census of In d ia , 1941, Vol. I P a rt I, p. 9.
2 K ingsley Davis, “ D em o g ra p h ic F a c t a n d Policy in I n d i a ” , in D e m o g ra p h ic
S tu d ie s of Selected Areas of R a p id G row th. M ilb a n k M em orial F u n d . 1944, p. 41.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
Decade
Birth rate
Death rate
1881-1891
1891-1901
1901-1911
1911-1921
1921-1931
1931-1941
49
46
49
48
46
45
41
44
43
47
36
31
19
Natural increase rate
8
2
6
1
10
14
U sing these estimates as rough guides, it would ap pear th a t a steady
decline in death-rates m ay have occurred in the period 1921-41. T he
birth-rate, prior to 1921, apparently tended to rise when health conditions im proved and to fall when they deteriorated. In the period
1921-41, however, the birth-rate failed to increase though famines and
epidemics were absent; in fact it appears to have diminished. T he
unprecedently high rate of natu ral increase in 1931-41 seems to have
been due m ainly to the reduction of the death-rate.
T h e question has been raised w hether the trend of natu ral increase
indicated by the 1921-41 experience would not, in the absence of sweeping economic developm ent, inevitably lead to recurrent catastrophes, as
in the past. M ore concretely, it has been recom m ended th a t measures be
taken to reduce the fertility-rate in order to prevent the death-rate from
returning to its previous level.1
T h e vital statistics since 1941 m ake one w onder w hether the decline
in the d eath -rate d u ring the two preceding decades will continue in the
decade 1941-1951. T h e Bengal fam ine of 1942-43 and the heights to
which death-rates from smallpox, cholera an d m alaria soared a t that
time, the fam ine in the M ad ras Presidency d uring 1942-43, and the
shortage of food supply in T ravancore State during 1943-1946, are
rem inders th a t the econom y has still to advance a great deal to ensure
security of life for In d ia ’s large population.
T h e recorded birth-rates since 1941 are well below those recorded
previously. I t is impossible to determ ine to w h at extent the lower rates
are attrib utable to the m achinery of registration having been im paired
by the exigencies of w a r work and to w hat extent they m ay represent a
real reduction of fertility. T h e fact that, in a small rural com m unity of
60,000 near C alcutta, birth-rates as high as 46.1 an d 59.8 p er 1,000 were
recorded for 1945 an d 19462 suggests th a t m ore will have to be known
about the accuracy of registration before m uch im portance can be
attached to the decline in birth-rates.
I t is reasonable to look forw ard to a decline in the death-rate. T he
present tren d in p lanning the future public h ealth activities of the coun1 F ra n k W. N otestein, D e m ographic Stu d ies of Areas of R a p id Growth. M ilbank
M em orial F u n d . 1944, pp. 140-41.
2 R e p o r t o f the A ll I n d ia In s titu te of H yg ie n e a n d Public H ea lth . In d ia . 1946-47.
20
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
try is shown in the R ep o rt of the H ealth Survey an d D evelopm ent
C om m ittee1 w hich contains suggestions for short-term a n d long-term p ro gram m es for im proving the h ea lth of the nation. W ith a n in fa n t m o rtality ra te rising to 200 p er 1,000 live births in m any p arts of th e country,
w ith sm allpox an d cholera m anifesting themselves regularly in epidem ic
forms, w ith m alaria form ing the m ost im p o rtan t single cause of d eath,
the possibility of reducing the d ea th -rate substantially by social services
is ap paren t. T h ere is less certainty regarding the likelihood of a n early
reduction of the birth-rate. Studies by Kingsley Davis suggest th a t In d ia n
fertility “is controlled to a considerable degree by indirect, in stitu tion al,
non-deliberate customs, such as the taboo on w idow re m a rria g e” 2 an d
th a t w hen such institutional checks are relaxed, fertility m ay ten d to in crease.
T h e spread of education an d the w eakening of social barriers of the
H in d u caste system will have a n eventual effect on the b irth -ra te. A
survey3 in a m iddle class section of C alcu tta revealed th a t of girls m arried
betw een 1943-48, the age of m arriage was 16.8 years, ab o u t five years
older th an the average age a generation before. I t was also fo u n d th a t 20
per cent of all m arried wom en betw een the ages of 12 a n d 50 years desired
to lim it the size of fam ily an d th a t ab o u t 13 p e r cent h a d actually
attem pted to do so. These m ay be the start of a m ovem ent w hich, should
it gather strength, will m ake the increase of In d ia ’s p o p u latio n less rap id .
Burm a
T h e population of B urm a has been grow ing rapidly. F ro m 10.5
million in 1901 it grew to 16.8 m illion in 1941. T h e rates of g ro w th are
shown in the following census figures:
Year
Population (in millions)
1901
19 11
19 21
1 931
1 941
1 0 .5
12.1
1 3 .2
14.7
16.8
Rate of annual increase
(per cent)
1 .4
0 .9
1.1
1 .3
In the absence of accurate vital statistics o r im m igration statistics it
is difficult to apppreciate clearly the im plications of th e changes in the
rates of grow th. T h e slackening during 1911-21 is probably attrib u tab le
to the influenza pandem ic. T h e higher ra te of increase d u rin g 1931-41
1 R e p o rt o f the H e a lth S u rv e y a n d D e v e lo p m e n t C o m m itte e , V ols. I - I V . N ew
D elhi, G o v e rn m en t of In d ia Press, 1946.
2 K ingsley D avis, “ H u m a n Fertility in I n d i a ” , A m e r ic a n J o u rn a l o f Sociology,
Nov. 1946.
3 R e su lts o f an E n q u iry into R e p ro d u c tiv e P atterns of U rb a n a n d R u r a l P o p u la tion, I n d ia n R esearch F u n d Association, 1947 (u n p u b lis h e d ).
21
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
as com pared w ith the preceding decade is of p artic u la r interest in view
of the likelihood th a t n e t im m igration into B urm a was not very different
in th e two decades. I t is n ot unlikely th a t the increased rate of grow th
was due to lowered m ortality rates.
D u rin g W orld W a r I I B urm a was a battlefield an d the loss of life
m ust have been heavy. Large-scale em igration of In d ian residents also
occurred. T h e estim ate of 17 m illion used officially would im ply p ra ctically no increase since 1941.
Ceylon
T h e first p op ulation census of Ceylon was taken in 1871. Since then
every census has revealed a rapid rate of increase of the population. T he
rates w ere:
Year
1901
1911
1921
1931
1946
Population (in millions)
3 .6
4 .1
4 .5
5 .3
6 .7
Rate of annual increase
(per cent)
1.3
1.0
1.8
1.6
A p a rt from th e influence th a t the im m igration of In d ian workers
m ay have h a d on these rates, the sm aller rate of increase in the decade
1911-21, as com pared w ith 1921-31, m ay probably be largely attributed
to the influenza pand em ic of 1918. Similarly, the slightly lower rate for
1931-46 was probably caused by the m alaria epidem ic of 1934-36. Except
for a tem porary rise during the m alaria epidem ic, the death-rate has
been showing a slow b u t continuous decline th roughout the last two
decades. Easily controllable infectious diseases like smallpox an d cholera
have been practically elim inated. T h e birth-rate, however, has not yet
shown a dow nw ard trend. W ith recorded birth-rates over 35 p er 1,000
th ere is every prospect th a t the po pulation will m aintain a high rate of
grow th in th e next few decades, ranging betw een 1.2 an d 1.5 per cent
p er year.1
T h e anticipated ra te of increase w ould im ply the doubling of Ceylon’s p op ulation in ab out five decades.
Siam
Since 1911 five population censuses have been carried ou t in Siam,
th e last in 1947. D uring this period the population has grown from 8.3
m illion to 17.3 million, showing an average ra te of grow th of 2 p er cent
p e r year:
1 A n n u a l G eneral R e p o rt on th e E co nom ic, Social a n d General C onditions o f the
Island, 1947. C eylon G o v ern m en t Press, C olom bo.
22
P A R T I.
GENERAL
Year
Population (in millions)
1911
1919
1929
1937
1947
8.3
9.2
11.5
14.5
17.3
Rate of annual increase
(per cent )
1.2
2.3
2.3
1.8
Such a rap id increase w ould seem im probable unless a substantial
p a rt of it were accounted for by im m igration, by increasing accuracy of
census enum erations, or by expansion of areas covered by the census.
T h ere is evidence th a t a t least a small p a rt of the increase betw een
1929 a n d 1937 can be explained by im m igration, m ostly Chinese. A ccording to the shipping figures a t Bangkok, w hich cover th e bulk of foreign
passenger traffic, the n et excess of arrivals over d epartures in 1927-28
was 76,359. I n 1933-34 an d 1934-35 the net im m igration gave place to a
net out-m ovem ent. D uring the whole period 1929 to 1937 th e average
ann ual increase due to im m igration was 9,106, com pared to a n average
an nual population increase of 369,737 as recorded by the census.
Between 1937 an d 1947 Siam experienced tem po rary changes in its
territory. Indochinese territory hav in g a n estim ated p o p u latio n of 600,000
was added in 1941; M alay territory, w ith a popu latio n of 1,150,000,
and some Shan territory was add ed in 1943. R e tu rn to previous frontiers
was effected before the census of 1947, w hich did not therefore include
the population of these territories.
A t present, Siam has a density of 34 p e r square kilom etre, w hich
cannot be considered high. B ut it is a n overw helm ingly agricultural
country w ith 89 p er cent of the people w orking on th e land. T h e 1947
census figures, showing th a t only abou t 10 p e r cent of the p o p u latio n
was over 50 years of age, clearly in dicate th a t there is room fo r im provem ent in health conditions. Assuming im proved health, the n a tu ra l
increase will probably m aintain a level of a t least 1 to 1.5 p e r cent p er
year.
In dochina
T h e population of In do ch ina was 23 m illion according to the latest
census, in 1936. T h e three quinquennial censuses preced ing it indicate,
if the figures are com parable, widely fluctuating rates of increase in
different periods. F rom 18.8 m illion in 1921 the po pu latio n increased
to 21.1 by 1926, giving a rate of increase of 2.4 p e r cent p e r an n u m .
A ccording to the 1931 census the population was 21.5 m illion. Between
1931 an d 1936 the population increased a t the ra te of 1.4 p e r cent p er
annum . I n the absence of reliable vital statistics, it is difficult to in terp ret such wide variations in growth.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
23
A m ajo r population problem of Indochina arises “from the u n equal distribution of the population over the land ra th e r th an from too
g reat num bers in the country as a whole.” 1 T h e population is concen trated heavily in the great alluvial plains n ea r the sea, where the
flooding of the fields due to heavy rainfall makes irrigation unnecessary.
T h e lack of com m unications was formerly a great obstacle to the achievem ent of a m ore rational population distribution, but a good deal of road
a n d railw ay n et work h ad been com pleted before the w ar.2 T h e aversion
of the A nnam ite peasants to leave their alluvial hom elands is tied up
with their traditional social and religious patterns. Inducem ents to move
offered by the adm inistration of Indoch ina rem ained mostly fruitless.
V ast irrigation works were necessary to perm it an intensive utilization
of the soil an d thus m aintain or im prove the low levels of living of the
increasing population attach ed to it.3 A greater mobility of the people
is am ong the factors affecting a better correspondence between m an pow er an d n atu ra l resources.
Federation of M alaya
T h e F ederation of M alaya is rem arkable for the variety of ethnic
groups w hich form substantial parts of the population. O f the 4.4 million
enum erated in the 1931 census (including the population of Singapore),
37.5 p er cent were native Malays, 39.0 per cent were Chinese, 14.2 per
cent were Indians, 7.2 per cent were “ O th e r M alayans”, m eaning im m igrants from T h ailan d and Indonesia, and the rest was m ade up of
Europeans, Eurasians, etc. T h e racial composition varied widely in the
different regions. T h e M alays, including “O th e r M alayans” , formed
25.6 p er cent in the Straits Settlem ents, 34.7 p er cent in the Federated
M alay States and 69.6 p er cent in the U nfederated M alay States. T he
Chinese were a m ajo r group in the Straits Settlements, constituting
nearly 60 per cent. T h e Indians, of whom the bulk cam e from the M adras
Presidency, were most heavily represented in the F ederated M alay States,
where they form ed 22 p er cent of the population. Few of the Chinese
an d In dians can be considered as perm anently settled.
T h e rubber plantations and tin mines have been the m ain inducem ents to the im m igration of Indians an d Chinese. Because of this im m igration, the population grew rapidly before W orld W ar II, increasing
from 2.7 million in 1911 to 5.4 million in 1939. T h e census of 1947 gave
1 P ierre G ourou. L ’U tilisation du S o l en In d o c h in e fr a n çaise. P ublication No.
X I V of th e Centre d’E tu d e s de Politique é trangére. Paris (1 9 4 0 ) , in p a rticu la r,
p a r t I I o n th e d is trib u tio n of th e p o p u la tio n , p p . 9 1 -1 8 8 ; W a rre n S. T hom pson,
op. cit., p. 283.
2 E co n o m ic S u rv e y o f Asia a n d the Far E ast, 1947. p. 39
3 Pierre G ourou, op. cit., a n d C h arles R o b e q u a in , E vo lu tio n é conom ique de
L ’In d o c h in e fr a n çaise. C entre d ’E tu d e s de P olitique é trangére. Paris, 1939.
24
P A R T I.
GENERAL
th e pop ulatio n of th e F ederation of M alay a as 4.9 m illion a n d of
Singapore as 940,000.
T h e F ederation of M alaya has all the dem ographic characteristics
of an area w ith large-scale im m igration of foreign nationals. T h e sex
ratio is abnorm al, being heavily w eighted by m en. I n 1931 th ere w ere
688 females to 1,000 males. T his disparity is m ore m ark ed in th e nonM alayan born population. T h e age structure is also p eculiar, w ith a
m uch higher p roportion th an n orm al in the age group 20 to 34 years.
T h e size of th e population fluctuates w ith the dem an d fo r labour. In
some years the n um b er of em igrants is fa r in excess of th e im m igrants.
T h e living together of different races a n d com m unities n o t yet
integrated into a com m on social life invests the fu tu re problem s of
dem ography w ith exceptional interest.
Indonesia
T h e m ain population problem in Indonesia, as in In d o ch in a, is the
unequal geographical distribution of the population. J a v a (w ith w hich
M ad u ra is usually included) is the sm allest of the five m a jo r islands of
Indonesia, yet it contains abo ut 70 p er cent of the total p o p u latio n of
the region. W ith an area of 132,000 square kilom etres a n d a popu latio n
of about 41.7 m illion in 1930, Ja v a an d M a d u ra h a d a density of 316
persons p er square kilometre, whereas the rest of the region, know n as
the O u ter Provinces, h ad a n area of 1,772,000 square kilom etres, b u t
a population of only 19 million, th a t is, a density of less th a n 11 p er
square kilometre.
According to the Census B ureau a t B atavia, th e p o p u latio n increased
from 13 million in 1860 to 30 m illion in 1905, a n d to 41 m illion in
1930. Between 1920 an d 1930 the average an n u a l grow th of th e p o p u la tion of Jav a was nearly 1.8 p er cent, a ra te w hich, if continued, w ould
double the population in less th an 40 years.
T o cope w ith the anticip ated increase in population, the G overnm ent has, since 1930, actively encouraged m igration to the O u te r
Provinces. T h e num ber of colonists in these provinces is rep o rted to h ave
increased from 7,000 to 1932 to 60,000 in 1941.1 T h e w ar, how ever,
has interfered w ith this project, an d it has not been possible to gauge
the m om entum w hich the m ovem ent m ay achieve in th e fu tu re. I n considering the effect w hich this scheme m ight have in reducing the density
of popu lation in Ja v a an d M ad u ra, it has been p ointed o u t2 th a t the
an n u al increase of popu lation in th a t area betw een 1920 a n d 1930 was
1 K a rl J . Pelzer, P ioneer S e ttle m e n t in th e A sia tic T ro p ics, 1938-39.
2 W . S. T h o m p so n , op. cit., p. 259.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
25
ab ou t 650,000 o r of the o rd er of ten times the m axim um an n u al m igration to th e O u te r Provinces observed so far.
R ecen t official estim ates show a decline in total population (Jav a
an d o u ter islands) due to w ar losses, from 73 m illion in 1942 to 68
m illion in 1946, increasing to 69 m illion in 1948.1
Philippines
T h e p o pulation of the Philippines, a t the first census taken in 1903
after th e U n ited States occupation of the country, was 7.6 million. T he
census of 1918 gave th e population as 10.3 million, and th a t of 1939
gave 16.0 m illion. Between 1903 an d 1939 the population grow th averaged 2.1 p er cent p er year. I t is possible th a t the censuses have become
m ore accurate, so th a t the ra te of grow th shown by these figures m ay
be exaggerated. In any case, the rate of grow th has been considerable.
As am ong o th er colonial populations there was a m arked reduction of
the m ortality rate, b u t the fertility rate has been affected little, if a t all.
I t is n o t surprising th a t th e present tren d in population grow th and
its possible repercussions on th e Philippine economy have engaged the
atten tio n of the G overnm ent. As p ointed o u t in last year’s Survey, governm ental efforts are directed prim arily to resettlem ent of people from
the crow ded in to th e sparsely p o p u lated areas. If western experience is
to be taken as a guide, th e prospect of an early reduction in the birth-rate
is greater in th e Philippines th a n in m any o ther parts of the region, the
educational level of th e Philippine population being relatively high.
Forty-nine p er cent of the p o pulation aged ten an d over were literate
in 1939. Nevertheless, for several decades the likelihood of the population
m ain tain in g its recen t h ig h ra te of increase will have to be taken into
account in developm ental plans.
Japan
T h e first enum eration of the pop u lation of Jap a n , on m odern lines,
was m ade in 1872. T h e next enum eration was m ade in 1920 an d from
then until 1940, censuses were taken every five years. No census was
taken du rin g W orld W a r I I b u t several enum erations have been m ade
since, the last one, a “ratio n card census” , being on 1 August, 1947. T he
postw ar census figures have n ot included O kinaw a, w hich in 1940 h ad
a p o p ulation of ab ou t 600,000. T h e population totals for Ja p a n (excluding O kinaw a) as o btained in some of the censuses are shown below:
1 S u p p le m e n t to E c o n o m ic S u r v e y o f Ind o n e sia , 1948, p re p a re d by th e D e p a rtm e n t of E conom ic A ffairs, B atavia.
26
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
Year
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1946
1947
Population (in millions)
55.4
59.2
63.9
68.7
72.5
72.5
74.0
78.6
Annual rate of increase
(per cent)
1.3
1.6
1.5
1.1
0
2.1
6.2
Between 1920 an d 1940 th e population of J a p a n (excluding O k in aw a) increased by 31 per cent. T h e an n u al rate of increase was 1.3
per cent in 1920-25, 1.6 p er cent in 1925-30, 1.5 p er cent in 1930-35 an d
1.1 per cent in 1935-40. A fter 1940, J a p a n ’s p o p ulation tren d was
m arkedly influenced by the war. As a consequence of w a r losses, the
1945 population was at the same level as in 1940. Since the w ar, the
repatriation of Japanese nationals from o th er countries led to a sudden
and sustained increase in population. T h e p o p ulation of J a p a n (excluding O kinaw a) was 78.6 m illion on 1 O ctober 1947.
Fairly accurate vital statistics are also available since 1920. B irthrates and death-rates have shown a decline. T h e average b irth -ra te was
34.6
per 1,000 in 1921-25, 33.5 in 1926-30 a n d 31.5 in 1931-35, and
dropped to 27.0 in 1938-39. T h e average d ea th -rate was 21.9 p e r 1,000
in 1921-25, 19.4 in 1925-30 an d 17.9 in 1931-35. Betw een 1936 and
1940 the death-rate was roughly 17.3 p e r 1,000.
A n analysis of factors leading to the decline in fertility has shown
th a t p a rt of the decline was due to an increase in th e p ro p o rtio n of
the population in u rb a n areas, where fertility rates have been low er th an
in ru ral areas. T h e population living in cities of 5,000 an d over in creased from 32.2 p er cent in 1920 to 50.1 p er cent by 1940. T h e re was
also a slight reduction in the fertility rates of both u rb a n a n d ru ra l areas,
attributable prim arily to an increase in the age of m arriage a n d a decline
in the num ber of “ inform al m arriages.” 1
T h e trends of birth-rates a n d death-rates since 1940 are interesting
w hen set against the background of J a p a n ’s w a r history. T h e b irth -ra te
rose slightly afte r 1940 and kept an average of 30 p e r 1,000 u n til 1944. In
1945, the year of J a p a n ’s defeat, it d rop ped to 23.2, an d in 1946 it was
25.3
p e r 1,000. In 1947 the b irth-rate re tu rn ed to th e level of th e early
twenties, th a t is, 34.8, an d the available d a ta for 1948 have n o t shown
any tendency tow ard a decline. T h e d eath -rate showed no increase d u ring the war, except in 1945 w hen a d eath -rate of 29 p e r 1,000 was
1 Ire n e B. T a e u b e r a n d E d w in G. Beel, T h e D yn a m ic s o f P o p u la tio n in J a p a n ,
1944. M ilb a n k M em orial F u n d , p p . 22-32.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
27
recorded. In 1946 the death-rate retu rn ed to a m ore norm al level, th at
is, 17.6 p er 1,000. T h e 1947 an d 1948 death-rates were below 15 per
1,000, th a t is, the lowest ever recorded for Jap an , and not very different
from the death-rates recorded in E urope for 1930’s. J a p a n ’s dem ographic
situation is radically different from th a t of neighboring countries of the
region w here death-rates are still over 30 per 1,000.
Before 1940, the expanding industrial economy of Jap a n was able
to absorb a rapid population increase in u rb a n areas and to prevent the
developm ent of excess population density on the lan d .1 Since 1940, how ever, the rate of natu ral increase has reached a high level. T h e re p atriation of 6 million Japanese nationals from overseas, only partly offset by
the re tu rn of 1 million persons of o th er nationalities from Ja p a n to other
countries, has accentuated this sudden increase in Ja p a n ’s population
size. T his increase has been accom panied by far-reaching political,
econom ic and social changes, which m ake any forecast of Ja p a n ’s future
dem ographic developm ent extrem ely difficult.
K orea
T h e first population census of K orea was taken in 1925, showing
a population of 19.5 million. T h e population enum erated increased to
21.0
million in 1930, to 22.9 million in 1935, and to 24.3 million in
1940. These figures show a rapid rate of increase, am ounting to 1.5
per cent per an n u m during the period 1920-40. T h e high rate of increase has apparently occurred in spite of the fact th at Koreans have
m igrated in large num bers into M an ch u ria and Japan. I t is estimated
th a t the K oreans in M anchuria, including the form er South M a n ch u rian R ailw ay Zone, num bered 775,000 in 1935 and 1,162,000 in
1939.2 T h e K orean residents in Ja p a n increased from 419,000 in 1930
to 800,000 in 1939 an d to about a million in 1942.3
Since the end of the war, the num ber of refugees has been greater
th an in any previous period in K orean history. M igration of Koreans
into South K orea d uring the period O ctober 1945 to O ctober 1948 is
recorded at 2.2 million, of w hom 51 per cent are from Jap an , 18 per
cent from M an c h u ria and C hina, and nearly 30 p er cent from N orth
K orea. Since the division of K orea at the 38° Parallel in 1945, large
groups of K oreans have entered the Southern Zone from the N orth. T he
total outw ard m ovem ent has been abou t 890,000, composed mainly of
Japanese, m any of w hom have come through from the N orth.
1 Ib id ., p. 14.
2 B runo Lasker, Asia on the M ove. H e n ry H o lt an d C om pany, New York, 1945.
3 K a rl J. Pelzer, P opulation a n d L a n d Utilization. A n E conom ic S u rvey o f the
Pacific A rea, In s titu te of Pacific R elations, 1941. p. 32.
28
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
Official estim ates of the S outh K o rean In terim G overnm ent C om m ittee on Population an d Census Statistics place the po pulatio n of S outh
K orea a t 20.5 m illion by th e end of D ecem ber 1948.1
P o p u l a t io n M o v e m e n t s
T h e paucity an d unreliability of dem ographic d a ta are particularly
acute in the field of m ovem ents of population betw een areas o r co u n tries. T his difficulty is not peculiar to the countries of th e region, b u t
it is relatively greater there. R ecourse to indirect m ethods to supplem ent
inadequate statistics of the m ovem ents themselves is in m ost cases im possible because of the im perfections of general population data. F u rth e rm ore, the great variability w hich characterises the intensity of these
m ovem ents does not allow conclusions regarding present m ovem ents to
be draw n from averages o r trends. I t is proposed to give here a brief
statem ent of some of the problem s of population m ovem ents in the
region in term s of dem ographic analysis.
From both the geographical an d institutional points of view, th ree
kinds of population m ovem ents should be distinguished: (a) in te rregional m ovem ents (i.e., to an d from the region considered as a w hole) ;
( b ) intraregional m ovem ents (i.e., betw een different countries of the
re g io n ); an d (c) internal m ovem ents (i.e., inside a given co u n try ).
As a result of the severe restrictions applying to interregional m ovements on the p art of Governm ents outside the region, the m agn itude of
these m ovements is small. Restrictions exist also on intraregional m ig ration, bu t they are less severe an d not always so strictly enforced, so th a t
the m agnitude of this m igration is greater.
D uring recent years, the volum e of norm al m igration has been small
in com parison w ith the num bers of persons transferred from th e ir hom es
or displaced by operations of war. These m ovem ents will n o t be considered in detail. T hey should be distinguished from o th er m igrations
because the im m ediate causes are neither econom ic n o r social, an d
because the m ovem ents are sudden, tem porary an d non-recurring. T h ey
raise special problems th a t are of great h u m an significance a n d deep
interest: relief of the acute sufferings of the m en, wom en a n d children
involved; their repatriation and their resettlem ent. T h e la tte r problem ,
however, has m any aspects com m on to those raised by norm al m ig ration, an d the dem ographic an d economic consequences of the two types
of m ovem ent are often of the same nature.
T able 1 on page 13 shows the great variations in density of p o p u lation betw een the countries of the region a n d betw een different dis1 T h e Voice o f K orea, N o. 126, 16 M a rc h , 1949.
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
29
tricts o r provinces w ithin those countries. T o a certain extent those
differences in density correspond to differences of n atu ral resources and
equipm ent. B ut the correspondence is anything b u t perfect, an d is constantly being m odified as a result of different rates of population growth,
of changes in econom ic activities, and of different rates of investm ent.
O n the whole, the densities of population of countries of the region are
in the m edium or high range in the world-wide distribution of p o pulation densities. T h e standards of living are, however, low both relatively
an d absolutely. T his alone creates a deep incentive to emigrate.
A t present, Asian m igrations are num erically am ong the most im p o rta n t in the world. I t should, however, be borne in m ind th a t the
volum e of m igration (both interregional and intraregional) is quite
small in relation to the size of the population in most of the countries
concerned, a n d is m uch less im p o rtan t th an the birth-rates and deathrates in its influence on population growth. T here are, however, some
cases of intern al m ovem ents w hich are fa r m ore significant dem ographically, e.g., m ovem ents into M an c h u ria from other parts of China.
L ittle is know n of the age distribution of the Asian m igrants, except
th a t they are mostly in the productive age groups. Like almost all m ig ra n t groups thro ug hout the world, there is am ong them a predom inance of m en ; this is because Asian workers are unable for financial or
other reasons to transport their families w hen they m igrate. T h e disproportion of the sexes am ong m igrants is well shown, for example by
the nu m b er of females p er thousand males in the different racial groups
of M a la y a ;1 in 1931 this nu m b er was 970 in the case of M alayans, 513
in th e case of Chinese and, in the case of Indians, 482, in spite of the
rule laid dow n by the In d ia n G overnm ent in 1922 th a t four out of every
five Ind ians em igrating to M alaya should be accom panied by their wives.
D a ta on the sex an d age of m igrants w ould enable detailed analysis to
be m ade of the dem ographic consequences of m igrations on the countries of em igration an d of im m igration in Asia an d the F a r East.
T h e m ajority of m igrants betw een countries of the region are agricultural workers. T h ere are, however, o th er m ovem ents which are
sociologically an d econom ically im portant, although small in m agnitude,
such as the m igration of some semi-skilled an d a few skilled workers who
m ay play a vital p a rt in the receiving countries. T h e tem porary in terregional em igration of students, technicians an d adm inistrators going
abroad to fam iliarize themselves w ith new fields of knowledge is for
the sam e reason of great im portance. So is the im m igration of foreign
specialists o r adm inistrators.
1 M a la ya n Y e a r B ook, 1939, p. 35.
30
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
Even m igrations th a t are too small to have a decisive influence on
the rate of population grow th can be an im p o rtan t factor in relieving
acute difficulties, such as localized famines. In m any cases they have
also m uch significance for the cultural developm ent of the countries
of destination.
Su m m a r y
Paucity of adequate statistics makes the dem ographic picture of the
region incom plete an d even vague a t m any points. Available evidence
indicates th a t the individual countries are not all in the same d em o graphic situation. C hina, w ith its large population, has a h ig h b irth -rate,
a high d eath-rate an d presum ably a low rate of n atu ra l increase. In d ia
an d Pakistan ap p ear to have m ade progress in controlling m ortality
during the last two decades, w ith little or no change in th eir high fertility rate. Areas such as the Philippines, Indonesia an d Ceylon show
high rates of population increase w hich are believed to be due to a
reduction in their death-rates, w ith little or no decline in the birth-rates.
J a p a n ’s birth-rate h ad shown a definite decline before W orld W a r I I
b u t has again reached a high level; its low d eath -rate is com parable to
th a t of some E uropean countries.
Interregional movements of population have been of very small
m agnitude; intraregional migrations, large in absolute size, are in general
small in relation to the populations concerned. T h e greatest m ovem ents,
w hether international or internal, during the latest years have n o t been
migrations but transfers or displacem ent of populations w ithin C h in a
and Korea, to and from Jap an , between In d ia an d Pakistan. T h e p re w ar currents of m igration were of very varying im p o rtan ce: from the
southern provinces of the Chinese Republic, m igrants left for Siam,
M alaya, Indonesia, Indochina, Ceylon and B urm a an d from the north ern
provinces of C hina Proper for M anchuria. Indians m igrated to M alaya,
Ceylon, Burm a, M auritius and the U nion of South Africa. Japanese
m igrated to Korea, Sakhalin, M anchuria, Form osa an d the U n ited States.
In spite of such differences, there are com m on features in the
dem ographic trends of the countries of the region, w ith the possible
exception of Jap an . O ne is th at in the next few decades, unless fertility
declines, an era of peaceful progress would lead to a rapid increase in
population. In most countries of the region, m odern influences have
been responsible for measures w hich tend to cut dow n m ortality, such as
the prevention of social disorder, introduction of b etter facilities for
transportation, im provem ent of agricultural and m an u fa ctu rin g techniques, and the control of epidem ic diseases. Such changes have o rdinarily had little effect on fertility, w hich is determ ined by motives
P O P U L A T IO N T R E N D S
31
deep-seated in the social and cultural fabric. Secondly, predom inantly
agricultural populations have difficulty in adaptin g themselves im m ediately to rap id changes in econom ic patterns and new locations of activities. T hu s mobility, as an elem ent of the population problem , together
with the size, density and rate of growth, m ust be taken into account
w hen considering developm ental plans in most countries of the region.
W ith reduced m ortality, continuation of the high fertility rates
prevailing in these areas will produce a rapid increase in population.
E uropean countries experienced similar increases in population after the
industrial revolution, w hen science an d technology were used to raise
the standards of living. T h e discovery of the New W orld and the opportunities w hich it gave for large-scale em igration, the extension of E uropean trad e and com m erce to countries in the East, and the establishm ent of colonies, helped to counteract the effect which the population
expansion m ig ht otherwise have h a d on the health and economic welfare of the population. A t a later stage, however, birth-rates fell in E uropean countries. A p o in t which has to be decided in any appraisal of
the futu re populations of the region is w hether or not birth-rates will
decline in the countries concerned even durin g the first stage of their
econom ic developm ent.
CHAPTER III
Salient Changes Since the War
In Asia an d the F a r East, as in o ther regions, significant changes
of a lasting character have taken place in com parison w ith the position
before W orld W ar II. Both postw ar territorial changes a n d the decline
of colonialism have exerted a profound influence on the econom ic
structure of the region. T h e rise of economic plan n in g an d control, in cluding the extension of state enterprise in production, tra d e a n d ban k ing, the introduction of m anaged currency an d the a tte m p t to control
prices as well as foreign trade and exchange, are the m anifestations of
the w artim e and postw ar tendency towards increasing p articip atio n by
the State in economic activities. W artim e an d postw ar industrialisation
has brought about changes in the region’s p a tte rn of pro d u ctio n an d
trade. A grarian reforms have come to the forefront in m any countries,
especially C hina, Burma, India, K orea an d Jap a n . Asian lab o u r is in creasingly asserting its right to organize in face of the rising cost of
living. Inflation in m any countries has bro u g h t a b o u t changes in the
distribution of w ealth and income. Finally, there have been significant
changes in international economic relations, in trad e a n d in balance of
payments. These basic changes in the A FE region will be considered
in the present chapter.
D
ecline
of
C
olonialism
T h e history of colonial rule in Asia an d the F a r E ast varies in
duration from decades to centuries for the various m etropolitan Powers.
U n d e r the slogan of “Asia for the Asian” , J a p a n set o u t d uring
W orld W ar I I to expand its colonial dom ain. T h e pro ced u re ad o p ted
differed from th a t followed by other m etropolitan Powers in earlier days,
but the objective rem ained the same. F o u r independent regimes were
established in B urm a (1 August, 1943), the Philippines (14 O ctober,
1943), In d o c h in a (9 M arch, 1945), an d Indonesia (17 August, 1945—
im m ediately after Japanese surrender b u t before Allied re -occupation).
M ilitary defeat, however, p u t an end to J a p a n ’s thinly disguised a tte m p t
to unify Asia u n d er its dom ination.
32
S A L I E N T C H A N G E S S IN C E T H E W A R
33
N a tio n a l in d e p e n d e n c e h a s increasingly b ecom e th e co m m o n a sp ira tio n of c o u n tries u n d e r m e tro p o lita n rule. E v e n before th e w a r en d ed ,
th e A llied Pow ers h a d p le d g e d su p p o rt to th e A sian desire fo r in d e p e n d e n c e a n d freed o m . In d e p e n d e n c e w as p le d g e d by th e U n ite d States,
G re a t B ritain , a n d C h in a to K o re a in th e C a iro D e c la ra tio n (1 D ec e m ber, 1 9 4 3 ), w hile M a n c h u ria a n d T a iw a n w ere to be resto red to C h in a.
T h e P h ilip p in e s b e cam e in d e p e n d e n t on 4 Ju ly, 1946, a n d B u rm a on
4 J a n u a ry , 1948. I n d ia a n d P ak istan , on 15 A ugust, 1947 a n d Ceylon,
on 4 F e b ru a ry , 1948, b e cam e self-governing D om inions w ith in th e
B ritish C o m m o n w e a lth of N atio n s. T h e F e d e ra tio n of M alay a, w ith a
c o n stitu tio n of its ow n, c a m e in to bein g o n 1 F eb ru a ry , 1948, in place
of th e M a la y a n U n io n w h ic h h a d b een established on 1 A pril, 1946. I n
In d o n e sia a n d In d o c h in a th e differences b etw een th e peoples a n d the
m e tro p o lita n Pow ers re m a in as yet unsettled.
W ith th e decline of colonialism th e region is e n te rin g in to a new
age of in d e p e n d e n t eco n o m ic d ev elo p m en t. T h e tran sitio n fro m colonial
to n a tio n a l econom y h a s p ro c e e d e d w ith vary in g speed a n d success in
diffe re n t countries. B u t c e rta in tren d s a re visible. F irst, th e re is a definite
te n d e n cy to w ard s n a tio n a l econo m ic in d e p e n d e n c e , c h aracterized by the
desire fo r b a la n c e d eco n o m ic d e v elo p m en t, a n d by th e im position of
controls ov er tra d e , ex ch a n g e a n d in v e stm e n t w ith a view to fostering
such d ev e lo p m e n t. S econd, th e G o v e rn m e n ts in th e new ly in d e p e n d e n t
cou n tries h a v e e m b a rk e d , o r a re p la n n in g to em b ark, u p o n p rog ram m es
fo r in d u stria lisa tio n , in itia te d a n d in m a n y cases financially su pported
by th e S tate. As p a r t o f these p ro g ram m es, state enterprises in p ro d u ctio n ,
tra d e a n d b a n k in g h a v e b e en set u p in several countries.
I n te r n a l p o litica l a n d eco n o m ic in stab ility h as a cco m p an ied in a
n u m b e r o f cases these p o litica l changes. B u rm a , th e F e d e ra tio n of
M a la y a , a n d th e P h ilip p in es h a v e all h a d th e ir sh are of civil d istu rb ance. I n d ia a n d P a k ista n h a d to face extensive c o m m u n a l riots im m e d iately a f te r p a rtitio n . In fla tio n , shortages, w a rtim e d e stru c tio n an d
d e te rio ra tio n o f ca p ita l e q u ip m e n t— all these h av e c o n trib u te d to contin u e d eco n o m ic in stab ility in m a n y countries. S h o rtag e of cap ita l
e q u ip m e n t a n d te c h n ic a l p e rso n n e l is a n o th e r h a n d ic a p to th e newly
in d e p e n d e n t coun tries. R e p a tria tio n of m e tro p o lita n staff a n d rep lacem e n t by local staff, fo r ex am p le, h a v e resu lted in a n a c u te shortage of
c o m p e te n t te c h n ic a l p e rso n n e l in civil service.
T
e r r it o r ia l
C
h a n g e s
P o stw a r te rrito ria l c h anges h a v e re d u c e d th e size of em pires a n d
have signalled th e em erg en ce of several new ly in d e p e n d e n t nations in
34
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
Asia an d the F a r East. These changes cannot fail to exert an im p o rtan t
influence on the econom ic developm ent of countries of the region.
A m ong these changes the m ost im p o rtan t is the disintegration of
the Japanese Em pire. W ith K o rea independent, M an c h u ria an d
T aiw an restored to C hina, southern Sakhalin an d the K urile Islands
tu rn ed over to Soviet Russia, a n d the R yukyu Islands u n d e r A m erican
occupation, w hat is left of Ja p a n now em braces only the four islands in
Ja p a n Proper, namely, H onshu, H okkaido, K yushu an d Shikoku. C onsequently, Ja p a n today has less th a n one-fifth of its p rew ar area, and
about one-half of its prew ar population. This change m ay have profound
effects on the economic structure of Ja p a n an d its relations w ith o th er
countries.
J a p a n ’s industrial production a t present (D ecem ber, 1948) is only
32 p er cent of the peak level attained in 1941, or 64 per cent of the level
in 1930-34. J a p a n ’s future industry and trade is likely to differ radically
from prew ar. T w o-thirds of its large cotton textile capacity was
destroyed during the w ar and with the rise of the cotton textile industry
in other countries of Asia, it is unlikely th a t Ja p a n will regain its dom inance in this industry. Similarly, the industrial developm ent of the light
consum er goods industries in other countries of Asia m ay well reduce
the dependence of these countries on Ja p a n for these types of goods.
O n the other hand, the desire for industrial developm ent on the p a rt
of all countries of Asia and of the F a r East m ight result in a heavy dem and for Japanese m achine tools and industrial m achinery an d eq u ip m ent. T o survive economically, J a p a n ’s exports m ust be large in order
to pay for the raw m aterials and food which previously cam e in large
p art from the yen bloc of the Japanese Em pire.
Since the end of the war, J a p a n ’s foreign trad e has been chiefly on
a “G overnm ent to G overnm ent” basis. Food and raw m aterials were
im ported into Ja p a n by the Suprem e C om m ander for the Allied Powers
(S C A P ), chiefly financed by U n ited States governm ent funds, b u t in
some cases as b arter transactions. R ice from K orea an d T aiw an , for
instance, was replaced by w heat from the U n ited States. P rivate trad e
was resum ed in 1948 b u t most im ports are still financed by U n ite d States
funds.
A nother territorial change is the rise of in dependent K orea, w hich
at the end of the w ar was divided into two zones, S outh K o re a u n d e r
A m erican occupation an d N o rth K orea u n d e r Soviet occupation, w ith
the 38th Parallel as the dividing line. T h e subsequent establishm ent in
late 1948 of K orean governm ent in the two zones has not seemed to alter
the fu ndam ental situation. T h e 38th Parallel divides the country into
S A L I E N T C H A N G E S S IN C E T H E W A R
35
a n o rth ern zone w ith three-fifths of the area an d less th a n one-third of
the population, a n d a southern zone w ith only two-fifths of the area
b u t over tw o-thirds of th e population. T h ro u g h the differences in the
policies pursued a t first by the occupation authorities an d now by the
N o rth an d South K o rean Governm ents, the economy of the two zones
has undergone fun dam ental changes. D uring 1946-47, a large num ber
of refugees from N o rth K orea, estim ated a t 350,000, moved across the
fro ntier to S outh K orea, in search of food in rice producing districts
an d for o ther reasons. T h e economy of the country has been disrupted as
a consequence of the new political division. R ail traffic was halted at the
boundary. T h e south was deprived of north ern ores, chemicals, lum ber,
fabricated m etals an d ultim ately of hydroelectric power. T h e north, in
tu rn , lost southern rice, textiles and o th er consum er goods.
A th ird territorial change is the restitution to C hina of M anchuria
an d T aiw an. C hina, through such restitution, would have better prospects of industrial developm ent were postw ar conditions less affected
by civil disturbances and o th er factors. In M anchuria the industrial
structure w hich Ja p a n had built u p since 1931 was dism antled or
dam aged soon afte r the conclusion of w ar. T aiw an was also developed
by the Japanese and except for some dam age from Allied bombing,
rem ained econom ically in ta c t; since restitution it has been used by the
Chinese G overnm ent as an im p o rtan t industrial base.
A fu rth e r m ajo r change is the partitio n of the In d ian subcontinent
into the two countries of In d ia an d Pakistan. This partition entailed
considerable dislocation, of w hich the m ost spectacular was the mass
transfer of p op ulation across the frontiers of the two countries during
the latter p a rt of 1947.
Economically, the two new countries, although differing in resources
an d developm ent, were highly com plem entary to each other. Both were
still agricultural, b u t In d ia h ad developed industries which, like jute
an d cotton, drew heavily on Pakistan for raw m aterials, as well as for
foodstuffs for the w orking population. In return, Pakistan received
m anufactured articles from India.
Pakistan was in general also behind In d ia in m ineral production.
D uring 1948, whereas In d ia ’s coal production reached 30.3 million tons,
P akistan’s was only 279,000 tons. Pakistan also produced petroleum and
chrom ite; its o u tp u t of petroleum was only one-third th a t of India, but
for chrom ite its o u tp u t was fo ur times th a t of India. U nlike India, how ever, Pakistan produced no iron, copper, m anganese or mica.
T h e com plem entary econom ic ch aracter of the two countries was
seriously affected by the partitio n through the creation of trade barriers
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
36
an d the break-up of the whole system of com m unications. T h e tran sfer
of great num bers of population from W estern P unjab, N orth-w estern
F ron tier Province an d Sind resulted in tem porary suspension of m any
of the industrial, banking, an d com m ercial establishm ents in W estern
Pakistan, an d m any of the farm lands form erly cultivated by th e Pakistan
peasants in East P u n jab an d D elhi h a d to be resettled by Indians.
M eanw hile, In d ia had to spend a large p a rt of its exchange resources,
accum ulated during the war, in the purchase of food.
Since partition, both countries have attem p ted to find a way out
of the economic disruption caused by the partition. W hile In d ia plans
to increase its agricultural production, especially food, th ro u g h erection
of large-scale irrigation schemes, greater fertilizer production, a n d o th er
means, Pakistan is trying to m eet a p a rt of its needs for m an u fa ctu re d
articles through encouragem ent of industrial developm ent.
A m ong less far-reaching territorial changes is the establishm ent of
the Federation of M alaya. O n 10 O ctober, 1945, th e setting-up was
announced of a constitutional U nion of M alaya, consisting of th e nine
states in the M alay Peninsula an d of the two British settlem ents of
Penang and M alacca, while the settlem ent of Singapore was to be constituted as a separate colony. O n the term ination of the British M ilitary
Adm inistration at the end of M arch 1946, the M alayan U n io n a n d the
Crow n Colony of Singapore were established. O n 1 F ebruary, 1948 th e
M alayan U nion was replaced by the F ederation of M alaya, w ith sim ilar
territorial scope but w ith a constitution providing for g reater autonom y
th an the earlier one for the U nion.
A nother m inor territorial change since the end of the w a r was
the restitution by Siam to M alaya, In d o ch in a an d B urm a of th e te rritories occupied during the war. T h e peace treaty betw een Siam on the
one hand, and G reat Britain an d In d ia on the other, on 1 Jan u ary ,
1946, provided for the re tu rn to B ritain of the fo u r M alay a n d two
Shan states ceded to Siam by Ja p a n in July 1945. F rance, too, concluded a treaty w ith Siam on 17 Novem ber, 1946 by w hich Siam restored
the Indochinese territories ceded by the Vichy G overnm ent in 1941.
E
conomic
Pla n ning
and
C
ontrol
Econom ic planning an d control have been increasingly evident in
Asia an d the F a r East. Even before the Soviet First Five-Y ear Plan,
C hina in 1921 h ad a plan prepared by Sun Y at-Sen, fo u n d e r of the
Chinese R epublic, w ho proposed in his International D e velopm ent of
China “ th a t the vast resources of C hina be developed internationally
u n d er a socialistic scheme” as a m eans of readjustm ent of w ar industries
in countries affected by the First W orld W ar. T h e Soviet experim ent
S A L I E N T C H A N G E S S IN C E T H E W A R
37
drew w orld-w ide attention to the possibilities of econom ic planning
an d control, while th e great depression of th e 1930’s dem onstrated
the need for p lann ing in other economies. J a p a n used it to hasten the
m aterialization of its designs for continental expansion on the Asian
m ainland, in M an ch u ria in 1931 an d in O ccupied C h ina in 1937; while
C hina, in self-defence, started economic plann in g and control through
the establishm ent of several governm ent bodies, especially the N ational
Resources Commission, w hich since 1935 has become the m ajor state
enterprise in the developm ent of electric power, m ining and m achine
making.
In d ia ’s N ational P lanning Com m ittee, appointed as the result of
a resolution of the C onference of M inisters of Industries in the several
provinces held a t D elhi in O ctober 1938, began its work in 1939, but
ceased to function early in the w ar. T h e G overnm ent of In d ia and
the provincial governm ents m ade arrangem ents for the preparation of
postw ar plans, an d studies were m ade an d financial proposals exam ined
later in the year. In O ctober 1946, the Advisory Planning Board of the
G overnm ent of In d ia was appointed to m ake a comprehensive survey of
the field of planning, w hich h ad grown rapidly during and after the
war, a t the centre, in the provinces, an d for m ajor industries. T he Board,
in a rep ort issued three m onths later, recom m ended the establishm ent
of a P lanning Commission u n d er the C entral G overnm ent which should
constitute a single, com pact, authoritative organization responsible
directly to the C abinet as a whole and w hich should devote its attention
continuously to the whole field of developm ent in so fa r as the C entral
G overnm ent was concerned w ith it.
B urm a, Ceylon, N o rth Borneo an d the Philippines have, since the
war, draw n up program m es for econom ic developm ent. In 1948 plans
were p rep ared by F rance on behalf of Indochina. In countries under
Allied occupation, Ja p a n an d K orea, plans were also prepared for postw ar rehabilitation a n d reconstruction.
Probably the earliest an d m ost extensive trend tow ard economic
control has been the rise of state enterprises in the field of public utilities
an d transport. In m any Asian countries, railway transport and power
generation were the first to come u n d e r state ownership and control, followed in recent years by road transport, shipping, com m ercial aviation
and irrigation. Before W orld W a r II , few industries were owned and
operated by the State, b u t during an d after the w ar, the position had
changed. Several G overnm ents, especially C hina and India, developed
basic industries like m ining, pow er an d m achinery, w ith the purpose of
providing a m inim um basis for industrialisation. I n territories regained
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
38
from Ja p a n , notably O ccupied C hina, industries operated in w artim e by
enem y or p u p p et adm inistrations were wholly taken over by th e State.
T h e newly in d ep en d en t countries, in p artic u la r the Philippines,
B urm a an d Ceylon, took over state-owned industries form erly u n d e r
colonial adm inistration. M eanw hile, new state industries have been established for the prom otion of economic developm ent along in d ep en d en t
national lines. In Burm a, there has been a strong tendency towards
nationalization of the few existing industries.
A part from public utilities, transport an d production, oth er fields,
including banking, currency, exchange, an d trade, have increasingly
come u n d er state control. W ith the grow th of budgetary deficits to m eet
the needs of w ar and postw ar financing, and the consequent inflation,
there has been a tendency to ado pt m anaged currency systems, o r in
some cases, to modify the autom atic exchange standard. Parallel to the
adoption of m anaged currency systems was the establishm ent of central
banks. In India, C hina and also Jap an , central banks were established
before the w ar; in Siam d uring the w ar; and in Pakistan, B urm a and
the Philippines, after the war. In Ceylon and M alaya, w here central
banks have not yet been established, a currency board an d a currency
commission perform respectively the function of controlling note issues.
It is significant th a t all these central banks are state-owned an d statecontrolled institutions. I t remains to be seen how far such newly created
m onetary m achinery will succeed in regulating the supply of an d dem and
for credit and in guiding capital into industry. Besides central banks,
state-owned and controlled financial institutions have been set u p in
some countries for the purpose of providing capital funds for industry.
C
hanges
in
Pr o d u c t i o n P a t t e r n s
T h e trend towards industrialisation in the region dates from before
the war, b u t its tem po was increased u n d er the exigencies of w ar. I n its
broad sense, industrialisation m ay m ean the application of m odern technology and m ethods of organization to all branches of econom ic activities, b u t so far as the A FE region is concerned, industry an d transpo rt
have proceeded faster than agriculture in the application of m odern tech nology and m ethods of organization except in such countries as M alaya,
Indonesia and Ceylon where the m odern p lantation system has been
widely introduced. Am ong m anufacturing industries, p ro duction by
m odern m ethods has developed m ore rapidly an d extensively in the
m anufacture of wheat flour, sugar, cigarettes, matches, paper, etc., th an
in the basic industries, such as fuel and power, iron and steel, engineering and m achine-m aking. Industrialisation of a vast region like this is
bound to affect not only its own economies b u t also its econom ic re la-
S A L I E N T C H A N G E S S IN C E T H E W A R
39
tion w ith others, although the effects will become app aren t only after
an interval.
T h e w ar saw n ot only an increase in the tem po of industrialisation
bu t also a shift in the potential weight of the industrial pow er of the
countries of the region. In d ia now leads the A FE countries in the p ro duction of cotton textiles, and is intensively developing heavy industries.
C hina’s industrial production has fallen off drastically during the three
years of civil w ar, b u t its industrial potentialities have been greatly in creased w ith th e restitution of M anchuria and T aiw an. As soon as internal peace is restored, C h in a should be able to expand industrial p ro du ction a t a ra p id rate. Jap a n , thanks to its large m anufacturing capacity
and ab u n d a n t supply of technical personnel, may continue for some time
to enjoy substantial advantages in industrial production over In d ia and
C hina, b u t its reduced resources in food, m inerals and raw m aterials
point to a w eaker position both absolutely and relatively to C hina and
India.
Besides industrialisation, there has been a dem and for diversification
in pro duction in countries like In d ia and Ceylon where large quantities
of foodstuffs have to be im ported, as well as in countries like M alaya and
Indonesia whose econom y is built on a few staple products for export,
such as tin and rubber. T h e m ovem ent for diversification in production
is, however, as yet at an early stage, and no substantial result can yet
be shown.
Movement s
T o w a r d s E c o n o m ic
E q u a l it y
O f the various concrete m easures which p oint to a greater measure
of econom ic equality in the region, the m ost notable is perhaps the introduction of agrarian reform s in C hina, In d ia, Burm a, Jap a n and Korea.
Agrarian R efo rm
In m any countries of Asia an d the F a r East, dem and for agrarian
reform has grow n in the last few decades w ith the increasing com m ercialization of agricultural production and concentration of land
ownership. L andlordism , often of an absentee type, has given rise to a
string of m iddlem en whose exploitation of the ten an t cultivators brings
out even m ore glaringly the inherent weakness of an antiquated system
of land tenure. T h e rise of com m unism in some parts of the region has
been accom panied by m easures for land reform . I n C hina, indeed,
com m unism has for the last two decades been closely associated with the
m ovem ent for lan d reform . Broadly speaking, in those parts of C hina
w hich are u n d e r com m unist control, the m ovem ent has gone through
four stages. D urin g the first stage from 1927 to 1937 (th e year of
40
P A R T I. G EN E R A L
Jap anese invasion of C h in a ), o u trig h t confiscation of lan d belonging
to large owners was accom panied by nullification of contracts of ru ral
indebtedness. T h e land so confiscated was redistributed to agricultural
labourers, “po or” o r “m iddle” peasants, a n d fam ily m em bers of the
R ed Arm y, in accordance w ith the size of fam ily a n d labour pow er
available. D u ring the second stage (1937-45), o u trig h t confiscation was
replaced by a m ore m oderate program m e of re n t a n d interest-reduction,
in order to enlist the support of the land-ow ning class in th e com m on
cause of increasing agricultural production for the prosecution of w ar.
D uring the th ird stage, from the Japanese surrender onw ard (1945-47),
th e policy of outrigh t confiscation was restored in the case of lands
owned by enemy nationals, p u p p et officials an d local gentry charged
w ith w artim e acts of oppression of the people. R e n t a n d interestreduction was, during the first year of victory, continued in respect of
landowners, w ith the proviso, however, th a t w artim e paym ents of excess
rents or surcharges be refunded to the tenants, a n d th a t a fte r such
refunding, tenants be given priority in purchasing land offered fo r sale
by owners.
T h e fo u rth stage com m enced w hen on 10 O ctober, 1947, a new L an d
Law, first passed at th e N ational L an d C onference on 13 Septem ber,
1947, was proclaim ed by the com m unist authorities. L andlordism was
declared to have come to an end. R edistribution of land, except in areas
where land h ad been equitably distributed an d w here no d em an d was
m ade for redistribution, was to be carried ou t equally am ong all villagers,
but w ith due regard to the quality of land, on a fam ily o r household
basis.1
In N orth K orea, all land ow ned by the Japanese G overnm ent,
com panies or individuals, and by certain categories of K oreans, was confiscated an d freely redistributed to farm ers for p e rm a n en t ow nership,
i.e., the land could not thereafter be sold, bought, ren ted fo r tenancy, or
m ortgaged. According to a Soviet com m unication to th e U n ite d States
G overnm ent dated 19 April, 1947, abo ut 725,000 landless p ea sant farm ers
an d those having little land received m ore th a n one m illion hectares
of free land w hich form erly belonged to Japanese colonists a n d their
accomplices in K orea.
In South K orea, the Japanese-dom inated O rien tal D evelopm ent
C om pany an d the land held by individual Japanese were vested in the
1 Shen T se-yuan (e d ito r) : C hina’s L a n d P roblem s a n d L a n d R e fo r m (in
C h in e se ), H sin -C h u n g P ublishing Co., H o n g K o n g , 1948. T h e new L a n d L a w is
re p rin te d here on pp. 73-75. See also C h e n , H an -sen g , “ A g ra ria n refo rm in C h in a ”
in Far E astern S u rvey, Feb. 25, 1948; L ee, F ra n k C. “L a n d R e d istrib u tio n in
C o m m unist C h in a ”, in Pacific A ffairs, M a rc h , 1948. p p . 20-32.
S A L IE N T C H A N G E S S IN C E T H E W A R
41
N ew K o rea C om pany, set u p by the A m erican M ilitary G overnm ent on
21
F ebruary, 1946.1 T h e New K orea C om pany held about one-eighth
of the cultivated land of South K orea, including one-sixth of the ricefields. I t took all the p reparatory steps for selling the land to tenants
so th a t w hen it was dissolved on 22 M arch, 1948, the N ational L and
A dm inistration w hich took over its properties an d personnel was able to
p u t the land sale program m e into effect w ithout delay. T h e K orean
tenants on th e land offered for sale were given the first opportunity to
buy, paying in farm produce over a period of years. As of 30 June,
1948, o u t of 588,000 farm s offered for sale, a total of about 490,000
farm s were sold by the N ational L an d A dm inistration.2
I n Burm a, a m ore m oderate scheme of reform th an th a t of comm unist controlled C hina o r N o rth K orea has recently been adopted. T h e
L an d N ationalization Act, 1948, w hich shall “come into force on such
date as the P resident m ay by notification appoint” , transfers the right of
possession of all agricultural land not exem pted from “resum ption” to
the State. A gricultural land, including rice or sugar cane land, Y a land
an d K a ing land, w hich is in continuous possession of an agriculturalist
family from 4 January, 1948, u p to the extent respectively of 50, 25 or
10 acres, is exem pted from “resum ption” by the State. F or land whose
possession is resum ed by the State, com pensation not exceeding twelve
times the land revenue assessable on the land in the year 1947-48, plus
com pensation for “constructional im provem ents” , is payable to the owner.
T h e land so resum ed shall be distributed to all agriculturalist families
o th er th an those w hich have been granted exem ption.3 A beginning in
the enforcem ent of the law has been m ade since 1 January, 1949.
I n In d ia considerable progress in agrarian legislation has been m ade
by the different provincial Governm ents. T h e G overnm ent of Bombay
has am ended the Bombay T enancy Act, 1939, by the Bombay Tenancy
(A m endm ent) Act, 1946, to give m ore protection and privileges to the
tenants. I t has also passed legislation to prevent the fragm entation of
agricultural holdings an d to provide for their consolidation. In M adras
legislation abolishing the Z am indari system by buying o ut Zam indari
rights was passed in M arch 1948. In o th er provinces, e.g., U nited
Province, W est Bengal, Orissa an d Assam steps are being taken to abolish
the Z am indari system. U n d e r this system lands h ad been perm anently
1 C. C lyde M itch ell, F inal R e p o rt a n d H isto ry of the N e w K orea C om pany,
30 A pril, 1948.
2 U n ite d States A rm y Forces in K o rea, S o u th K orea I n te r im G o vernm ent
A ctivities, J u n e 1948.
3 T h e L a n d N ationalization A c t, 1948, S u p erin ten d en t, G overnm ent P rinting
a n d S tation ery, R an g o o n , 1948. See also “ T h e B u rm a L a n d N ationalization Bill” ,
in Eastern E conom ist, V ol. X I , No. 20, 12 N ov., 1948, pp. 830-831.
42
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
held by a class of people styled Z am indars who were responsible for collecting rents from the cultivators an d paying the stipulated revenue to
the G overnm ent. I t is expected th a t the abolition of the Z am in d ari
system will lead to an increase in production an d an im provem ent in
the standard of life of the cultivating classes. In C entral Province and
Berar, Bills to am end the Berar L an d R evenue Code, 1928, to facilitate
the conferring of protected status on the tenants, to discourage subletting of land an d to provide security of tenure for lessees, are being
introduced in the Provincial Legislature. T h e Legislative Assembly of
Bihar has passed the B ihar State Acquisition of Z am indari Bill to do
away w ith the Z am indari system in the province.1
In Jap an , the land reform program m e enacted in O ctober 1946 an d
brought into operation on 31 M arch, 1947 provides for the transfer of
land-ownership to farm ers who actually till the soil a n d for im p ro v em ent in farm tenancy practices for those who continue to act as tenants.
T h e lands to be transferred include those owned by absentee landlords,
ow ner-cultivated lands in excess of those th a t can be reasonably cultivated by the farm er and his im m ediate family, corporation-ow ned
lands th a t do not relate directly to the principal objective of th a t co rp oration, and lands capable of reclam ation for agricultural use. First priority
in the purchase of these lands goes to tenants in occupation on 23
November, 1945 and second priority to other ten a n t operators. Paym ent
may be spread over a period of 24 years w ith interest at 3.2 p er cent.
For those who rem ain as tenants the law provides for a w ritten farm
lease with all principal elements clearly stated, cash paym ent of rent,
and a rent ceiling of 25 per cent of the production from lowland paddy
and 15 per cent of th at from upland fields.2 T h e reform program m e was
scheduled for com pletion by the end of 1948. By 31 July, 1948 the
total am ount of land sold un d er this program m e reached about 1.3 m illion hectares or about 60 per cent of the estim ated targ et.3
I t will be seen th a t the agrarian reforms have been m ainly directed
to the abolition of landlordism and the redistribution of land. T h e
im m ediate effect of such reforms will be th a t an increased share of the
national p ro d u ct will go to the peasants. T h e im proved stan d ard of
living, coupled with a higher social an d political status, m ay give the
peasants a new incentive for production. But in the long-run, in the face
of the high population pressure on land in the region, it is doubtful if
1 A n n u a l Progress an d P rogram m e R e p o rt to the F A O (G o v e rn m e n t of In d ia ,
M inistry of A g ric u ltu re ), pp. 24-25.
2 N a tional Progress in F ood and A gricu lture Problem s, 1948, F A O , W ash ing to n ,
Septem ber, 1948, p. 143.
3 C A P , S u m m a tio n of N o n -M ilita ry A ctivities in J ap an , A ugust, 1948.
S
S A L I E N T C H A N G E S S IN C E T H E W A R
43
the increased production resulting from such institutional changes will
be large enough to assure the peasant class of a reasonably adequate
standard of living. W hile agrarian reforms are essential, m uch has yet
to be done, in addition to the developm ent of industries, to absorb
surplus agricultural population, in encouraging the peasants to organize
themselves in such a way as to enable them to apply m odern m ethods
of large-scale farm ing an d utilise m odern scientific knowledge in
im proving existing agricultural practices.
F urtherm ore, the im proved standard of living of the peasants will
be reflected in increased consum ption of essential commodities such as
food and clothing, while the elim ination of the rentier class will reduce
total dem and for certain luxuries and services. T h e types of dem and in
the national m arket will, therefore, be altered to a considerable extent.
This may, in turn, bring about a series of adjustm ents in production, and
necessitate a shift in the factors of production from one industry to
another.
L abour Organization
L ab o u r’s right to collective bargaining is being increasingly recognized in Asian countries, although its full exercise requires considerable
time, in view of the m any hindrances th at still prevail, e.g., illiteracy;
racial, religious an d cultural com plexity; political division; economic
insecurity arising from population pressure, and consequent unem ploym ent and under-em ploym ent.
As pointed ou t in the 1947 Survey, there has been a resurgence of
trad e unionism since the war. Expansion of communist influence in
N orth and C entral C hina during the latter p art of 1948 will undoubtedly
have an im portant influence in shaping the future trend of the labour
m ovem ent in Asian countries, especially am ong the Chinese im m igrant
labour in South-east Asia.
I t is not easy to appraise the extent to which the rise of organized
labour has contributed to the im proved conditions of work. In those
countries, such as C hina, In d ia and Jap an , where labour movements
have been stronger or have received an im petus from political struggles,
real wages showed some im provem ent during recent years despite
unfavourable economic conditions, although in the case of Jap a n real
wages are less th an prew ar because of the great shortage in supplies of
all kinds. In other countries, the living conditions of workers seem to
have deteriorated as a result of the rise of prices especially for food and
textiles, and the congestion in living quarters.1
1 F o r details, see c h a p te r V I I on L abour.
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
44
C
onsequences
of
In f l a t i o n
T h e w idespread inflation w hich has taken place in th e region is
described in ch a p ter X I. I t is well know n th a t inflation affects th e distribution of w ealth a n d incom e in favour of entrepreneurs, including
industrialists, farm ers, m erchants, an d others enjoying variable incom e,
a t the expense of fixed-income receiving classes. W artim e a n d postw ar
inflation in countries of the region, w hich are largely agricultural in
character, tends to favour the great mass of ru ral pop ulation th ro u g h
the cancellation, in m ost cases, of ru ral indebtedness, a n d th ro u g h
increasing incom e from disposal of surplus cash crops. This, how ever,
does n ot apply wholly to countries like C hina w here, since th e early
years of w ar, paym ent of land tax in kind has been enforced by the
G overnm ent, or to areas w here share-cropping has continued to be the
prevalent form of land tenure. Again, in so fa r as shortage of incentive
goods exists u n d er inflationary conditions, agriculturalists in several co u n tries have reverted from cash to subsistence farm ing, an d have, by
reviving b arte r economy, attem pted to free themselves from th e effects
of adverse term s of trade betw een agricultural crops a n d m an u fa ctu re d
articles.
T h e fixed incom e class, especially salaried workers, on th e o th er
hand, have suffered a decline in their real incom e u n d e r inflationary
conditions. L abour disputes and strikes du rin g w artim e w ere forbidden
to workers in essential industries, b u t w ith the relaxation of control since
the w ar they have tended to increase. T h ro u g h th eir ability to bargain
collectively, industrial workers have been reasonably successful in o b tain ing wage increases, b u t it is the salaried employees in civil service, being
in most cases no t organized and not enjoying the rig h t of collective
bargaining, who have suffered the greatest decline in th eir real incom e.
D espite the rap id progress of inflation in C hina, th e pay scale of
public servants in governm ent o r educational service lagged behind a t an
extrem ely low level.1 In B urm a an d Siam, the sam e situation prevailed,
although to a sm aller extent th an in C hina.
In t e r n a t i o n a l
E
conomic
R
elations
T h e integration of the economies of K orea, T aiw a n a n d M a n c h u ria
into the Japanese economy, whereby J a p a n obtained food, raw m aterials,
iron-ore, coal, etc., an d supplied m anufactured goods, has been cut
asunder. T h e position of Ja p a n itself in the econom y of the region as the
source of supply of several kinds of m an ufactu red goods rem ains an
outstanding question.
1 A S u r v e y of R eco nstruction P roblems a n d N eeds: C o u n try S t u d y on C hina,
E C A F E d o c u m e n t E /C N .1 1 /3 9 , A nnex F, 29 N ovem b er, 1947.
S A L I E N T C H A N G E S S IN C E T H E W A R
45
Postw ar developm ents have cem ented ra th e r th a n w eakened the
close econom ic an d com m ercial ties betw een In d ia an d Ceylon, as well
as betw een In d ia an d Burm a. T h e partitio n betw een In d ia and Pakistan
has created new trad e barriers across the frontiers, b u t close economic
relations betw een the two countries are being continued.
T h e region’s place in the global system of trade an d finance is u n d e rgoing reorientation. Before the w ar, countries of the region were debtors,
m ainly to continental Europe. B ritain was the creditor of India, B urm a
an d M alaya; F rance of In d o ch in a; and the N etherlands of Indonesia.
Hence, m ost countries required an export surplus to service public and
private debts and pay for invisible services. T h e obligation was m et to
an im p o rtan t degree by large-scale exports of rubber, silk and m ineral
products from these countries to the U nited States. O n the other hand,
E urop ean countries were im p o rtan t sources of supply of m anufactured
goods, including capital goods, to countries of the region. T h e triangular
situation applied less to the P hilippines-U nited States an d IndochinaF rance relations th an in the case of other m etropolitan Powers and
dependent areas. T h e settlem ent of this m ultilateral trade involved the
transfer of dollars by the dependencies to the m etropolitan countries.
T h e w ar an d its afte rm ath have introduced im p ortant changes in
the system. T h e im paired economic capacity of continental Europe has
resulted in the tem porary inability of continental countries to provide
the countries of the region w ith capital goods an d other articles either
on the prew ar scale or proportionate to postw ar needs. T he effect of
this is m aking its appearance in the desire of the region to have increased
trad e w ith the U nited States as a m eans of directly financing reconstruction needs from Am erica. T h e em ergence of In d ia as a creditor country
in respect of the U n ited K ingdom is also a significant development
w hich contributes to the disturbance of the prew ar triangular arrangements. I t is also possible th a t creditor-debtor relationships may develop
betw een the countries of the region. In d ia ’s loan to Siam and reported
loan to B urm a m ay be cited as examples.
A n im p o rtan t factor in changing the traditional m ultilateral p attern
of trad e is the un certainty as to the future of two export commodities
of the region— ru b b er and silk. R ubber, the m ainstay of M alaya and
Indonesia, an d to a lesser extent of Ceylon, is the principal source of
dollar earnings for the region, U n ited States consum ption alone
exceeding 50 p er cent of the w orld’s consum ption. Its m arket, however,
has been threatened by synthetic rubber. Silk, which used to be one of
the principal sources of dollars for Jap an , an d to a lesser extent China,
is being replaced to a large extent by other fibres.
46
P A R T I. G E N E R A L
All these changes have affected the regional p a tte rn of balance of
paym ents. As was seen above, the general prew ar p a tte rn was one of
visible trad e surpluses offset by invisible paym ents in the form of interest,
etc., to countries outside the region. Exceptions to this p a tte rn were
C h ina and Jap a n , both of w hich h ad visible trad e deficits, p artly offset
in the case of C hina by large rem ittances from overseas C hinese an d
m ore th an offset in the case of Ja p a n by n et earnings on services. By
contrast, the almost universal cu rren t p a tte rn for the region is one of
visible trad e deficits, increased by invisible items, w ith the volum e of
trad e a t a m inim um level. A notable exception is Pakistan w hich shows
a surplus in its balance of paym ents an d is also not seriously short of
dollars. Ceylon and Siam are also relatively well placed in this respect.
T h e m ain reasons for the changed position of the region m ay be sum m ed
u p as follows: reduction in o u tp u t and exports of foods, raw m aterials
and other products as a result of w ar and inflation, reduction in invisible
exports (e.g., rem ittances to C hina from Chinese a b ro a d ), coupled w ith
flight of capital, and the changed position of J a p a n .1
1 R e p o r t on F inancial A rra n g e m e n ts to facilitate the T r a d e o f the C ountries
o f the E C A F E region, E C A F E , O ctober, 1948 (D o c u m e n t E /C N . 11 /1 2 8 /A d d .1)
pp. 9-10.
PART TW O
PRODUCTION
C H A P T E R IV
Food and Agriculture
T his ch a p ter is divided into three sections: (1) food production,
including rice an d o th er cereals, livestock, poultry an d fishery products,
(2) pro d u ctio n of princip al industrial an d com m ercial crops such as raw
cotton, n atu ra l rubber, te a a n d tobacco, an d (3) supply of d raft anim als
and ag ricu ltural requisites.
F o o d P ro d u c tio n
R ice and O ther Cereals
E xcept in Ceylon a n d M alaya food crops take u p m ore th a n half
of th e to tal acreage in countries of the region. Am ong food crops, rice,
w heat a n d rye, an d coarse grains are the m ajor crops. As shown in
table 2, 1948 p rod uction of these m ajo r food crops represented an increase
of 3 p e r cent over 1947 b u t was still 4 p er cent below the level of
1934-38.
T
a b l e
2
Production of M a jo r Food Crops
(thousand tons)
1934-38
1947
1948
R ice (P a d d y ) ................. 140,540
W h e a t a n d rye ............... 34,516
C oarse g r a i n s .................... 63,6 00
131,926
33,540
57,300
134,386
36,400
58,700
T o t a l ........................ 238,656
222,766
229,486
P roduction of o th er food crops, such as roots an d tubers, pulses,
vegetables an d fruits, was hig h er in 1948 th a n in 1947. Statistics for these
are, how ever, incom plete or no t available.
R ice: T h e to tal p ro du ctio n of p ad d y rice in the A FE region in
1948/49 was 134 m illion tons, ab out 1.8 p e r cent higher th a n in 1947/48
b u t 4.4 p e r cent low er th a n in 1934-38.
O nly in M alaya, Pakistan, th e Philippines, Siam , S outh K orea and
J a p a n did the p ro d u ctio n of p ad d y rice in 1948/49 exceed the prew ar
average of 1934-38, while in o th er countries of the region it was still
49
PA R T II.
50
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
3
P roduction of Paddy R ice
(thousand tons)
Country
1934-38
average
1947/48
1948/49
B u rm a ............................. . . .
5,429
6,971
5 ,8 0 0 d
Borneo, N o rth ...............
170
1 19d
120d
Ceylon .............................
300d
300d
300
C h in a
. . . 5 0 ,064a
4 6 ,5 2 4
22 provinces
46,507
411a
459
460d
M a n c h u r i a ............
T a i w a n ................... . . .
1,205
1,2 0 0 d
1,642a
2 9 ,0 0 0 d
In d ia ............................... . . . 2 9 ,204b
28,590
In d o c h in a ...................... . . .
4 ,7 9 7 e
5 ,1 0 3 e
6,498
9,218
I n d o n e s i a ........................ .. . 9,845
8,592
J a p a n ............................... . . . 11,501
11,764
11,194
2,554
K orea, S o u t h ................. . . 2,520c
2,570
M ala y an F e d e ra tio n . .
553
560 d
5. 1 3
Pakistan ........................... . . . 11 ,168b
11,819
11,621
2,401
P h i l i p p i n e s ...................... . . .
2,179
2,335
5,400
S i a m .................................. . . .
5,174
4,357
T o t a l f ..... .. . 140,540
134,386
131,926
Source: F A O , F ood and A gricultural Statistics, V ol. I I , N o. 3, M a rc h , 1949;
Rice B ulletin, February , 1949, p. 60. M ost of th e 1 9 4 8 /4 9 estim ates are provisional.
a A verage 1931-1937.
b Average 1936/37 - 1938/39.
c A verage 1930, 1934 a n d 1936.
d Estim ates by F A O staff on th e basis of p a rtia l d a ta available.
e Unofficial estimates.
f Inclu d in g others.
below the prew ar level, notably in B urm a, C hina, In d o c h in a and
Indonesia. B urm a and Indochina used to be am ong th e chief suppliers
for other countries in th e region, an d the slow recovery in th e ir p ro duction has undoubtedly had a profound effect on the regional supply.
In C hina, where the total am ount of rice consum ed is greatest because
of the size of the population, a small percentage decrease in production
gives rise to a considerable deficit an d to the need fo r large im ports.
Before the war, the A FE region h ad a surplus in rice available
for countries outside the region. F rom 1934 to 1938, the average an n u al
net export of rice (m illed) from the countries in the region was 1,692,000
tons. T h e w ar has radically changed this picture. In 1947 an d 1948, the
total net im port of rice was respectively 305,000 an d 252,000 tons.
T h a t the A FE region has changed from a n et exporter to a n et im p o rter in rice is due not so m uch to the increased dem and fo r rice as to
its decreased availability. In 1948, as com pared w ith prew ar, b oth export
and im port of rice declined, b u t export declined to a fa r g reater extent.
F O O D A N D A G R IC U L T U R E
51
O ther cereals: As reported by FA O , an d shown in table 4, w heat
a n d rye w ere the only crops whose production in 1948 exceeded the 1947
a n d p rew ar levels of production.
T
a b l e
4
Production of W heat and R ye
(thousand tons)
Country
B u rm a ...................
C h in a a ....................
I n d ia ......................
J a p a n ....................
K o re a , S o u th .
P a k istan ...............
1934-38
average
....
7
. . . . 22,640b
. . . . 7,140c
....
1,287
....
103d
. . . . 3,183
1947
1948
4
23,647
4,871
767
25,582
5,432
941
88
102
3,200
3,317
. . . . 34,516
33,540
T o t a l e ..
36,400
S ource: F A O , F ood a n d A g ric u ltu ra l Statistics, Vol. I I , No. 3, M arch , 1949.
a 22 provinces a n d M a n ch u ria.
b 1931-37 average.
c 1936 /3 7 - 1 9 3 8 /3 9 average.
d T h re e year (1930, 1934, 1936) average.
e In c lu d in g others.
T h e 1948 p ro d u ctio n of w heat an d rye was 8.5 p er cent higher
th a n in 1947 a n d 5.5 p e r cent higher th a n prew ar. This is the first time
since th e w ar th a t p ro d uctio n by th e region as a whole of an im portant
crop like w h eat has exceeded th e prew ar level, b u t in fact this regional
increase is the result of increased production in C hina and Pakistan. Even
in C hina, because of increasing in ternal strife in the second h alf of the
year, it is questionable w hether the actual yield of w heat in 1948 measu red u p to the am o u n t as repo rted in the earlier crop forecast.
T able 5 shows production of coarse grain, i.e., m illet, maize, barley,
oats, an d kaoliang.
T h e regional pro d uctio n of coarse grains in 1948 was estim ated at
2.4 p er cent hig her th an in 1947 b u t 9 p er cent lower th an prewar.
All countries of th e region except P akistan shared this uniform tendency
for 1948 production of coarse grains to be slightly above the 1947 level,
b u t still below prew ar. In the Philippines an d Siam, production showed
a continuous increase over prew ar both in 1947 an d in 1948.
T h e n et im p o rt of w h eat and rye an d coarse grains by the AFE
region, com pared w ith prew ar, rose steeply u p to 1946/47, i.e., from
352,000 tons prew ar (1934-38) to 4,784,000 in 1946/47, b u t declined
slightly to 4,321,000 in 1947/48. Because of the decrease in the availability of rice in some of the exporting countries of the region, other
PA R T II.
52
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
5
Production of Coarse Grains
(thousand tons)
Country
1934-38
average
1947
1948
29
B u rm a e ........................
39
..
28,454
27,662
C h in a (22 p ro v in c e s) 3 0 ,4 9 4 b
16,900
16,900
I n d i a .............................
P akistan ...................... 1 8,1 6 0 c
1,500
1,060
In d o c h in a e .................
538
54a
60a
In d o n e s ia e .................
1,978
1,937
1,313
1,963d
J a p a n ...........................
1,374
1,646
853
K o rea, S o u t h ............
1,046d
685
466
489
P hilippinese ...............
427
S iam .............................
10
5
9
58,700
T o t a l f ...... 63,600
57,300
S ource: E xcept stated otherw ise, d a ta are based on F A O , F ood a n d A g ricultural
C onditions in Asia a n d th e Far E ast, 1948, p. 4.
a Based on E C A F E estim ates.
b 1931-37 average.
c 1936 /3 7 - 1938/39 average.
d T h ree-y ear average (1930, 1934, 1 9 36).
e M aize only.
f In c lu d in g others.
countries in the region h ad to rely m ore an d m ore on im p o rtin g w heat,
flour and o th er food grains from countries outside th e region.
Livestock and Poultry Products
Am ong livestock products, pork, beef a n d m u tto n are m a jo r items
consumed in the region. As cattle is kept m ore for w orking purposes th an
for food; only hogs, goats an d sheep are d ealt w ith here. T a b le 6 gives
the n um ber of hogs, goats an d sheep in 1948 as com pared w ith 1947 an d
prew ar, for selected A F E countries.
In the five countries enum erated in table 6, th e total n u m b er of
hogs, goats an d sheep in 1948 was greater th a n in 1947 b ut, except in
Indonesia for goats an d in Ja p a n for goats an d sheep, it was still below
prew ar.1 O nly for hogs has th e 1948 to tal alm ost a ttain e d th e p rew ar
average.
1 I n Siam th e supply of beef a n d p o rk in 1947-48 w as still below th e p re w a r
level, as show n in th e following. ( F rom the A n n u a l R e p o r t to F A O fo r th e Y ear
1948, M inistry of A griculture, Siam , p. 36.)
Number animals slaughtered
(thousand head)
1947/48
Prewar
Total production
(thousand M T )
Prewar
1 9 4 7 /4 8
8 .5
7 .8
Beef
............
85.4
78.0
450.0
Pork . . . . ............ 525.5
2 6 .2
2 2 .5
I n th e P hilippines th e im p o rt of m e a t p ro d u cts w as increased from
U S $1,772,000 to U S$ 5 ,2 1 3 ,0 0 0 (F ro m th e A n n u a l R e p o r t to F A O fo r 1948, by
th e G overnm ent o f th e Philippines, p. 1 5 ).
F O O D A ND A G R IC U L T U R E
T
able
53
6
N um bers of Hogs, Goats and Sheep
(thousand head)
Year
P re w a r:
Goats
Sheep
B u rm a (19 3 5 -3 9 ) ........................
539
C h in a (19 3 4 -3 7 ) ........................ 60,675
In d o n e s ia (1 9 4 0 ) ........................
1,267
J a p a n (1 9 3 4 ) ................................
449
828
K o re a , S o u th (1 9 3 8 ) .................
290
19,695
5,951
36
76
15,578
1,889
108
63,758
25,972
17,651
309
C h in a ................................................ 53,758
1,143
In d o n e s ia .........................................
J a p a n ................................................
110
300
K o re a , S o u th ..................................
151
13,609
5,562
288
9,191
1,610
239
55,620
19,610
11,061
394
B u r m a ................................................
C h in a ................................................ 59,510
1,171
In d o n e s ia .........................................
170
J a p a n .................................................
374
K o re a , S o u th ..................................
172
13,976
6,907
383
10,450
1,822
279
61,619
21,438
12,572
Country
T
1947:
T
1948:
T
otal
otal
otal
Hogs
.................
.................
.................
ss
21
ss
21
S ource: F igures fo r p re w a r years a re based o n E co n om ic S urvey of Asia and
the Far East 1947, ta b le 4 4 ; figures for 1947 a n d 1948 are based o n th e R ep o rt
by F A O to th e E C A F E S ecretaria t, except those for B u rm a a n d Indonesia w hich
a re based o n th e G o v e rn m e n t rep o rts p re p a re d fo r this Survey.
In the absence of detailed inform ation on the livestock slaughtered,
it is n o t possible to in fer from the above figures w hether the per capita
consum ption of m eat was increased or reduced in recent years. T h e allrou n d increase in th e num ber of hogs, goats a n d sheep in 1948 over 1947,
however, seems to in dicate th a t the situation will be b etter in 1949 so
fa r as the supply of m ea t is concerned.
T h e region is n o t self-sufficient in dairy products. In some countries
of th e region there has been a tendency tow ard an increase in the im p o rt of dairy produce in recent years. F or exam ple, im ports (butter,
milk, etc.) by the Philippines w hich totalled US$10,712,000 in 1946, increased to US$21,313,000 in 1947.1 T h e im port by Siam of canned m ilk
increased from nil in 1945 to 1,172 tons in 1946, an d 3,468 tons during
the first eight m onths of 1947.2
1 A n n u a l R e p o r t to F A O fo r 1948, by th e G o v ern m en t of th e Philippines, p. 19.
2 A n n u a l R e p o r t to F A O for 1948, M in istry of A griculture, Siam , p. 11.
PA R T II.
54
P R O D U C T IO N
C hina, J a p a n an d South K o rea are am ong the im p o rtan t countries
relying on poultry p roducts for food and, in the case of C hina, fo r export. T able 7 gives the num bers of chickens a n d ducks in these countries
in 1948, as com pared w ith 1947 and prew ar.
T
a b l e
7
N um b ers of Chickens and Ducks
(thousand head)
Year
P rew ar:
1947:
1948:
Country
Ducks
Total
C h in a (1934-37) ............ . . . 265,860
J a p a n (1 9 3 4 ) ................... . . . 54,889
K orea, S outh (1 938) . . .
3,423
64,307
550
7
330,167
55,439
3,430
T o t a l ........... . . .
C h in a .................................. . . .
J a p a n ................................. . . .
K orea, S o u t h .................
64,864
44,372
200a
389,036
241,115
19,800
1,854
44,574
4 4,106
274
3a
262,769
253,441
19,327
2,270
Chickens
324,172
196,743
19,600
1,854
T o t a l ........... . . . 218,197
C h in a ................................. . . . 209,335
J a p a n .................................. . . . 19,053
2,267
K orea, S o u t h ........................
44,383
275,038
T o t a l ........... . . . 230,655
Source: P rew ar figures from E conom ic S u rv e y o f Asia and the Far East, 1947,
table 46. Figures for 1947 a n d 1948 are from F A O R eports.
a E C A F E estimates.
T h e num ber of chickens in C hina, J a p a n a n d S outh K o rea in 1948
showed an increase of 6 per cent over 1947, while the nu m b er of ducks
rem ained about the same. Since there h ad been a great decrease in the
num ber of chickens and ducks during the w ar, the 1948 level, though
higher th an 1947, was still m uch below prew ar. T h e direct result of this
decrease was a great reduction in the export of poultry products an d
eggs. Before the W ar, C hina was am ong the w orld’s leading exporters
of eggs and egg products. In the period 1934-38 the an n u a l average expo rt of shell eggs from C hina was 21,000 tons o ut of a w orld to tal of
367,000 tons, an d th a t of egg products 56,000 tons o u t of a w orld total
of 62,000 tons.1 A fter 1941, C hina alm ost disappeared from the w orld
egg m arket because of w ar destruction an d shipping difficulties, b u t in
1946 she reappeared as an exporter on a m odest scale.
T h e an nu al average export of poultry from Siam was 1,517,000 head
in 1935-39, b u t because of w artim e reduction in p roduction a n d postw ar
transport difficulties, exports since the w ar have been insignificant.2
1 FA O , C o m m o d ity Series: P oultry a n d Eggs, W ash ing to n, 1948, tables 8 & 9.
2 A n n u a l R e p o rt to F A O fo r 1948, by M inistry of A g ricu ltu re, Siam , p. 33.
F O O D AND A G R IC U L T U R E
55
Fishery Products
Fish is an im p o rtan t item of protective food in the region, an d in
most countries makes u p a large p a rt of the total consum ption of anim al
protein. F resh an d brackish w ater fisheries in countries such as C hina
an d Siam constitute an im p o rtan t source of supply, statistics on which
are generally lacking or incom plete. H ence the annual catch of fish in
the region, estim ated on the basis of available statistics, is in most cases
understated.
T h e p rew ar an n u al catch of fish in the region was estim ated a t 8 m illion tons,1 o r abou t 45 p er cent of the world total.
Since the war, the an n u al catch of fish in the region has been
greatly reduced because of the w artim e loss of fishing vessels. In 1946,
for countries w here statistics were available, the volume of catch was
about one-half of the prew ar level.2 Ceylon alone showed an increase,
almost threefold. In 1947 a n d 1948, on the basis of inform ation available for a few countries, the an n u al catch of the region seemed to be still
far below p rew ar because of slow recovery in fishing facilities.3
In B urm a the ann ual catch of fish is officially p u t at 500,000
tons. In Indochina, the export of fish an d fishery products in 1947
am ounted to 36,000 tons. No p rew ar landing statistics are available for
Siam, bu t the im portance of fisheries can well be indicated by its export
of 27,000 tons in 1938/39. I t was estim ated by official sources th at the
annual catch of fish in Siam in 1948 was 195,800 tons, about 30 per cent
higher th a n in 1947.
T h e total catch of fish for Ceylon an d In d ia in 1943 was estimated
at about 682,000 tons.4 T h e an n u a l catch in Ceylon was estim ated at
about 8,000 tons p rew ar an d 22,000 tons in 1946; In d ia’s prew ar catch
was p u t at 662,000 tons.5 A recent estim ate gives In d ia’s annual fish production as about 700,000 tons, while its an nual net export of fish (excluding canned fish) was reported at about 22,000 tons for 1945/46 and
1946/47.6
T h e an n u al catch of salt-w ater fish in C hina was reported at 259,549 tons7 in 1946, w ith no inform ation available for 1947 and 1948.
However, in the A nnual R ep o rt of 1948 presented by C hina to FA O the
1 E co n o m ic S u rv e y of Asia an d the Far East, 1947, T a b le 47.
2 Ib id , pp. 71-72.
3 F ro m F A O , S u p p le m e n ta r y N o tes on Fisheries, 1948.
4 K . L. K esteven, R e p o r t on the Fisheries of Pakistan, In d ia and Ceylon, A ugust
1948, S ingapore, p. 8.
5 E co n o m ic S u rv e y of Asia a nd the Far East, 1947, T a b le 47.
6 M inistry of A griculture, In d ia , A n n u a l Progress and Program me R eport to the
F A O , 1948, p. 10.
7 E co n o m ic S u rv e y of Asia and the Far East, 1947, T a b le 47.
56
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
am ou nt of landings of fish a t the p o rt of Shanghai was stated to be
56,500 tons in 1946 an d 61,900 tons in 1947, showing an increase of
abo ut 10 p er cent. In H o n g K o n g the year’s catch in 1946 was 16,200
tons. T h e year’s catch of fish in Ja p a n in 1947 was reported a t 2,472,100
tons1, w hich was slightly lower th a n in 1946, b u t only ab o u t two-fifths
of the 1938 to tal; the prew ar figure, however, included J a p a n ’s colonies.
T h e 1940 catch of fish in Indonesia was officially estim ated a t 472,000 tons, an d the 1948 catch at 350,000 tons. O f the total catch in 1940,
sea fishery am ounted to 325,000 tons an d inland fishery to 147,000 tons.
In 1948, sea fishery produced 255,000 an d in lan d fishery 95,000 tons. T h e
1946
catch in the M alayan U nion an d Singapore was 51,300 tons, of
w hich 41,800 tons was for the M alayan U nion an d 9,500 tons fo r the
Colony of Singapore.2 T h e total catch in 1947, although greater th an
in 1946 by 11,300 tons, was still below the prew ar level of 72,000 tons.3
According to official reports, the year’s catch in the Philippines in 1947
was 180,000 tons, being three an d a h alf times greater th a n th a t in 1946
and, for the first time, exceeding the prew ar level.
T h e scanty inform ation available for 1948 suggests th a t 1948 p ro duction of fisheries in the region, like 1947 production, was still only
about one-half of prew ar. A decrease in the o u tp u t of salted a n d canned
fish is also reported for some exporting countries in the region. I n view of
the continuous increase in population an d the slow recovery in p ro d u ction, there seems no prospect th a t the region will, in the n ear fu tu re,
regain its prew ar place in the export of fishery products. I t is to be em phasized, however, th a t the potential o u tp u t of fisheries in the region
is considerable, an d that, in the im m ediate future, the possibility of expansion for the fishing industry is even greater th a n for anim al husbandry. In order to m eet the serious deficiency in anim al protein intake
for the people of the region, m easures to im prove th e supply an d distribution of fishery products should be given high priority.
In d u s t r i a l
and
C
ommercial
C
rops
Industrial an d com m ercial crops constitute the m ain source of fo reign exchange for m any countries in the region. In Ceylon, M alaya an d
Indonesia, for exam ple, rubber, tea an d coconuts are m uch m ore im p o rtan t th an food crops so fa r as acreage an d cash incom e are concerned. In this section, the region’s production of cotton, rubber, te a and
tobacco p roduction in 1948, as com pared w ith prew ar, is briefly
analysed.
1 F A O , Fisheries B ulletin, W ashington, V ol. 1, N o. 4, N o vem ber 1948.
2O p. cit.
3 E conom ic S u rv e y o f A sia a n d th e Far E ast, 1947, T a b le 47.
57
F O O D A N D A G R IC U L T U R E
C otton
C hina, In d ia a n d Pakistan are the m ajo r producers of raw cotton
in the region. W hile C h in a’s production is m ainly for domestic consum ption, th a t of In d ia an d Pakistan is m ainly for export. These three countries together accounted for over ninety-five p er cent of the total raw
cotton production of the region in 1934-38, 1947 and 1948.1 T h e 1948
p ro d u ctio n was 13 p e r cent below prew ar. T his reduction was due to
diversion of cotton acreage to food production, arising from food shortage, d u rin g a n d afte r th e war.
F ro m table 8 it will be seen th a t total production for the region in
1948 increased by 11 p e r cent over 1947, due m ainly to greater o u tp u t
by C hina.
Ta
bl e
8
Production of R a w Cotton
(thousand tons)
Country
1934-1938
Burma ..........
China
India
P ak istan
...
826
........ } 1,004 {
Korea
S iam
1947/48
21
40
............
................
1
7
844
387
201
14a
19
1948/49
974
373
256
17a
20
T o t a l . ...................
1,892
1,640
1,472
S ou rce: 1934-38 figures fro m F A O , Yearbook o f Food an d A gricultural Statistics, 1947; 1947-48 figures from d a ta supplied by F A O to th e E C A F E Secretariat
for B u rm a, C h in a , P ak istan , S o u th K o re a a n d S iam ; A g ricultural Situation in
In d ia , N ovem ber, 1948, p p . 23-24; in fo rm atio n supplied by th e G overnm ent of
Pakistan.
* S o u th K o re a only.
R u b b er
T h e region is th e w orld’s centre of n atu ra l rubber production. O f
the region’s o u tp u t in 1948, M alaya, Indonesia an d Ceylon together produced 90 p e r cent, an d N o rth Borneo, India, In d o ch in a and Siam together only 10 p er cent. T able 9 gives the region’s production of natural
rubber in 1948 com pared w ith 1947 an d prew ar.
T h e to tal p ro d u ctio n of n a tu ra l ru b b e r in 1948 for the m ajo r p ro ducing countries in th e region was ab o u t 10 p er cent greater th an in
1947 a n d 41 p er cent above prew ar. T h e increase in M alaya and I n donesia, th e two largest producers of n atu ra l ru b b er in the world, was
the m ost conspicuous. P roduction in 1948 in these tw o countries ex1 P re w a r figures a re given in Yearbook o f F ood a n d A g ricultural Statistics,
1947, F A O , W ash in g to n , 1948.
PA R T II.
58
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
9
Production of N atural R ubber
(thousand tons)
Country
1934-1938
Borneo, N o r th a ............
Ceylon .............................
In d ia ...............................
I n d o c h i n a ........................
Indonesia ........................
M a l a y a .............................
Siam .................................
T
otal
..........
1947
1948
............. 34
............. 62
............. 13
............. 39
............. 353
............. 423
............. 49
46
89
16
38
356
646
56
65
93b
430
698
33
............. 973
1,247
1,376
15b
42b
Source: Figures are from M o n t h ly E co n o m ic Bu lletin , J a n u a r y 1949, issued by
Office of the C om m issioner-G eneral, S in g ap o re; R u b b e r Statistical B u lletin , O c to ber 1948, by Secretariat of the R u b b e r S tudy G ro u p , L o n d o n ; G o v ern m en t
R eports by Indonesia a n d by the F ed era tio n of M alay a to E C A F E S e cretaria;
R eports by F A O ; Econom ic S u rv ey o f Asia and the Far East, 1947. P rew ar
figures are from Yearbook of F ood a n d A gric u ltu ra l Statistics, 1947.
a Includes Brunei an d Saraw ak.
b Projections based on figures in R u b b e r Statistical B ulletin, O cto b er, 1948.
ceeded the prew ar level by 45 per cent. T h e postw ar increase in rubber
production in the m ajo r producing countries has served to intensify com petition with synthetic rubber, an d the danger of over-production in
relation to world dem and is likely to call for intergovernm ental action.
Tea
T e a production d ata are incom plete for countries in the region,
especially for C hina, the largest producing country. However, available
m aterial seems to indicate a rapid decline com pared w ith prew ar, except
in India, Pakistan and Ceylon.
In C hina, prew ar production estimates, according to the League of
Nations, range between 300,000 an d 500,000 tons. A large p roportion of
C h in a’s tea production has been for hom e consum ption, the recorded
export being only about one-tenth, e.g., 40,700 tons in 1937 an d 41,600
tons in 1938. In 1948, because of w ar devastation and civil war, tea
output, as estim ated by the Chinese M inistry of A griculture a t 50,000
tons, is unduly low.1
T ea o utpu t in U ndivided In d ia was 201,000 tons in 1939, rose to
260,400 tons in 1943, fell to 232,000 tons in 1944, an d rose again to
260,400 tons in 1945. T h e latest estim ate for 1948 was 248,000 tons for
1 Statistical Yearbook, 1942-44, L eague of N ations, G eneva, 1945, p. 125;
A n n u a l Progress and Program R e p o rt to the F A O , 1948, N a n k in g , J u n e , 1948,
P. 2J.
59
F O O D AND A G R IC U L T U R E
T
a b l e
10
Production of Tobacco
(thousand tons)
Country
B u rm a ......................
C h in a ......................
In d ia /P a k is ta n . . .
J a p a n ........................
K o rea, S o u t h ..........
M ala y a ...................
P hilippines ............
Siam ........................
T
otal
.......
___
___
___
___
__
__
1934-1938
1947
45
649
501
64
..
23b
32
8
___ 1,322
1948
649
481a
60
..
659
476a
62
11
20
15
7
30
29
8
1,235
1,284
12
S ource: E xcept th e 1948 figure fo r M ala y a w hich was based on governm ent
reports a n d th e 1947 a n d 1948 figures fo r In d ia w hich were ta k en from th e Eastern
E conom ist, A n n u a l N u m b e r, 1948, all postw ar figures are from th e R e p o rt by F A O
to E C A F E Secretariat. P re w ar figures are from Yearbook of F ood and Agricultural
Statistics, 1947.
a U nofficial a n d provisional estimates.
b F o r K o re a as a whole.
the In d ia n U nion w hich was about 1,400 to 1,800 tons more than in
1947. T h e prod uction of Pakistan for the nine m onths from April to
D ecem ber 1948 was reported to be 20,725 tons as against 19,645 tons
for the sam e period in 1947.1
P rew ar (1934-38) production of tea in Ceylon was about 101,000
tons p er annum . I t rose to 107,800 tons in 1940 and 120,200 tons in 1941.
A fter the w ar, tea o u tp u t was fu rth e r expanded. I t reached a record high
level of 133,000 tons in 1945, b u t fell to 127,000 and 120,000 tons in
1946
an d 1947 respectively. In 1948 it rose to 140,000 tons.
T e a o u tp u t in Indonesia, 81,000 tons in 1938, was only 15,000 tons
in 1948. I n Ja p a n , o u tp u t fell to 23,000 tons, com pared w ith 55,000 tons
in 1938.2
T hu s, for three of the m ajo r tea producing countries in Asia, namely
C hina, Indonesia an d Jap a n , there has been a decline in production
com pared w ith prew ar. Ceylon’s postw ar o u tp u t shows a definite increase,
1 P re w a r to 1945 figures from M o n t h ly A bstract of Statistics, D ecem ber, 1948,
M in istry of C om m erce, N ew D elhi, p. 10. T h e 1948 estim ate from A gricultural
S itu a tio n in In d ia , Feb. 1949. F o r P akistan figures, see In te rn a tio n a l T e a C o m m itte e M o n t h ly Statistical S u m m a r y , M a rc h , 1949.
2 Statistical Yearbook, 1942-44, L eagu e of N atio n s; for Ceylon see Ceylon Y earbook 1948, p. 62. F o r In d o n esia see S u p p le m e n t to E co n o m ic S u rvey of Indonesia
for 1948, p re p a re d by th e G o v e rn m en t in B atavia. 1947 figures for Ja p a n are
from E co n o m ic S u rv e y o f Asia a nd the Far East, 1947.
60
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
a n d th e p ro du ctio n of In d ia an d P akistan, tho u g h fluctuating from year
to year, also tended to exceed th e p rew ar level.
Tobacco
T h e total p roduction of tobacco in 1938 in those countries of the
region for w hich inform ation was available was ab out 1.3 m illion tons,
4 p e r cent above the 1947 level b u t 3 p er cent below prew ar. Figures
for individual countries are given in table 10 on page 59.
M ost of the p roducing countries in th e region showed a n increase
in tobacco p roduction in 1948 over 1947, while the pro d u ctio n of I n d ia /
Pakistan fell slightly in 1948 b u t rem ained a t about th e same level as in
1946.
Supply
of
W
orking
A
nimals
and
A
gricultural
R
equisites
W orking A nim als
Since working anim als still provide the m ajo r source of fa rm pow er
in the region, changes in their num bers have a direct bearing on changes
in agricultural production.
T h e n u m b er of w orking anim als including oxen, buffaloes a n d horses
in those countries for w hich inform ation is available showed in general
a n increase in 1948 over 1947, b u t was still fa r below the p re w ar level.
As shown in table 11 the total n u m b er of oxen in 1948 for B urm a, C hina,
Indonesia, Jap a n , S outh K orea an d Siam was 34,523,000 head, w hich
was about 7 p er cent g reater th an in 1947, b u t 18 p er cent sm aller th an
prew ar. Sim ilar changes occurred for buffaloes an d horses. As buffaloes
are the m ost im p o rtan t working anim als in rice-farm ing areas, th eir in crease in 1948 contributed to the increase in rice production. T h e total
n um ber of working anim als in 1948 was, however, still fa r below the
prew ar level. T his is one of the m ain factors responsible for the slow
postw ar recovery of agricultural production in the region.
N eed for Agricultural Requisites
T h e inadeq uate supply of agricultural requisites derived from in dustrial sources, such as chem ical fertilizers, irrig ation an d drainage
equipm ent, agricultural m achinery a n d im plem ents, pesticides, etc., is
an o th er m ajo r factor retard in g recovery of agricultural p roduction. A t
the th ird session of the Commission in O otacam u n d, In d ia, in Ju n e 1948,
a resolution was adopted to establish a jo in t w orking p arty representative
of the Food an d A griculture O rganization an d the Econom ic C om m ission for Asia an d the F a r E ast to “ (a) exam ine the stated requirem ents
of Governm ents in the E C A FE region fo r agricultural requisites, (b)
advise Governm ents on action th a t can be taken nationally to m eet
these requirem ents from indigenous sources, (c) determ ine the circum -
61
F O O D A N D A G R IC U L T U R E
T
a b l e
11
N u m b e r of W orking Animals
(thousand head)
C ountry
O xen:
B u rm a
..........................
C h in a
..........................
In d o n e s ia ......................
J a p a n ................................
K o r e a , S o u t h ..................
S iam ................................
T o t a l ............
B uffaloes:
B u rm a .............................
C h in a .............................
In d o n e s ia ......................
S iam ................................
Year
1940-41
1934-37
1940
1934
1938
1941
Pre-war
N um ber
5,246
23,521
4,599
1,585
925
6,385
42,261
1940-41
1934-37
1940
1941
T o t a l ............
H orses:
1940-41
B u rm a .............................
C h in a .............................
1934-37
J a p a n ................................
1934
1938
K o re a , S o u th ...............
S iam .......................................1935-39
1,050
12,645
3,176
6,310
23,181
45
3,768
1,420
33
375
1947
Post-war
1948
4,480
18,998
2,691
2,069
610
3,555
5,207
18,200
3,578
2,100
640
4,798
32,403
34,523
717
9,320
1,636
3,989
15,662
11
2,039
1,154
34
89
721
9,460
2,746
5,230
18,157
12
2,023
1,092
36
205
5,641
3,327
3,368
T o t a l ............
S ource: F igures fo r p re w a r years are from E con om ic S u rvey o f Asia a nd the
Far E ast, 1947, T ab les 42 a n d 43. Figures fo r In d o n esia a n d Siam in 1947 and
1948 are fro m th e G o v ern m en t rep o rts sent in fo r this Survey. All o th e r figures are
based on th e re p o r t by F A O to E C A F E S ecretariat.
stances an d conditions u n d e r w hich G overnm ents in the EC A FE region
w ould be benefited by taking joint action w ith reference to both the
p roduction an d distribution of agricultural requisites, and ( d ) analyse
an d exam ine th e national food an d agricultural plans in the EC A FE
region in the light of the stated requirem ents of agricultural requisites
a n d the supplies thereof w hich are expected to become available from
indigenous pro du ction an d international trade.” T his resolution was in
pursuance of a recom m endation by the Econom ic an d Social Council
to the regional econom ic commissions for action, in consultation with
the F A O , “ to increase the supply of agricultural requisites as a means of
increasing w orld food supply.” T h e W orking P arty’s R eport was subm itted to the fo u rth session of the Commission in D ecem ber 1848.1
1 R e p o r t o f th e F A O / E C A F E Jo in t W o rkin g P arty on A gric ultu ral Requisites,
E / C N .11 /1 3 5 A dd. 1, 13 N ovem ber 1948. T h e p resen t section is based m ainly
o n this rep o rt.
62
P A R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
Fertilizers. O rganic fertilizers, in th e form of night soil, composts,
green m anure, etc., are used to a m uch larger extent in the region th a n
inorganic or chem ical fertilizers. T h e latter, however, are being increasingly dem anded by countries of the region as a m eans to restore an d
increase soil fertility to the land, a n d to raise agricultural yield to m eet
the food requirem ents of a growing population. T h e fact th a t countries
of the E C A FE region w ith abo ut one-third of the w orld’s cultivated
land, currently dem and only 11 per cent of world production of chem ical
fertilizers speaks eloquently for the potential dem and by these countries
for a higher proportion of w orld fertilizer production.
T
able
12
Production, Im p o rt and C onsum ption of Chemical Fertilizers
(in thousand tons nitrogen)
Pre-war
Thousand
Per
tons
cent
S e v en E C A F E countriesa
P ro d u ctio n .............. . .
23.65
Im p o rt ........................
96.95
1947/48
Thousand
Per
tons
cent
1948/49
Thousand
Per
tons
cent
19.6
80.4
12.61
79.91
13.6
86.4
28.43
93.20
23.4
76.6
T o ta l S u p p l y
. 120.60
Japan, R y u k y u s & S o u th K orea
Production ..............
256.21
Im p o rt
238.59
100.0
92.52
100.0
121.63
100.0
51.8
48.2
200.52
183.11
52.3
47.7
228.00
165.28
58.0
42.0
T o tal S u p p l y
T o ta l Region
P roduction
Im p o rt ........................
494.80
100.0
383.63
100.0
393.28
100.0
279.86
335.54
45.5
54.5
213.13
263.02
44.8
55.2
256.43
258.48
49.8
50.2
T o tal S u p p l y
615.40
100.0
476.15
100.0
514.91
100.0
S ource: Supplied by F A O Fertilizer C om m ittee.
a B urm a, C h in a (in clu d in g T a iw a n ) , In d ia , In d o n esia, P ak istan , P hilip p in es a n d
Siam.
T h e figures in table 12 show th a t fertilizer consum ption in seven
selected E C A FE countries, together w ith Jap an , the Ryukyus a n d South
K orea, in 1948/49 increased by 8.2 per cent over 1947/48, b u t was still
16.5 per cent below the prew ar level. O f this total consum ption, the
proportion im ported from outside the region was 50.2 p er cent in
1948/49, as com pared w ith 55.2 p er cent in 1947/48, an d 54.5 p er cent
in prew ar. D ependence on im ports has thus tended to decrease. Such
dependence is, in any case, m uch less in Jap a n , Ryukyus an d South
K orea th an in the E C A F E countries.
M u ch of the chem ical nitrogen now available is used on com m ercial
export crops, such as sugar, coconuts for oil, and tobacco. In view of the
F O O D AND A G R IC U L T U R E
63
current food shortage, the urgent problem is not only to increase the
total supply of fertilizers b u t to produce the needed chemical fertilizers
a t prices low enough to encourage m ore extensive use on food crops.
In some countries progress is already being m ade in the distribution of
fertilizers specifically for food crops.
O ne of the m ost im p o rtan t measures to increase the supply of fertilizers is to increase production of fertilizers w ithin the region itself.
Fertilizer m anufactu ring projects are un d er way in C hina and In d ia to
increase capacity fo r the production of nitrogen and phosphates. T he
largest is the project at Sindri, India, which is to have an annual capacity
of 350,000 tons of sulphate of am m onia. Smaller plants are being actively
projected in T aiw an, C hina, for the production of sulphate of am m onia,
am m onium nitrate, cyanam ide, fused phosphate and superphosphate.
T h e total tonnage of fertilizer involved in these projects is 580,000
tons p er year, one-third of which is near realization while the balance is
in the form ative stage. A new p lan t is u n d er consideration in the Philippines w ith a n an n u al projected capacity of 126,000 tons of sulphate of
am m onia. A new p lan t is also being planned for Ceylon.
T h e increase in fertilizer production from chemical sources thus
fa r plan n ed will not, however, m eet the total needs of the EC A FE region.
F or m any years to come, even assuming th a t fertilizers from local and
organic sources are fully utilized, the region will probably depend on
im ports for a substantial p a rt of the chem ical fertilizers needed to m aintain the necessary level of food production.
Irrigation and drainage equipm ent. W ater control is a basic feature
of agriculture in every Asian country. M uch of this work is being carried
out w ith trad itional techniques and local labour and materials, but
supplies of im ported m aterials and m echanical equipm ent such as pumps,
pow er units, well casings, pipes, etc., are required. Excavators and
earth-m oving equipm ent including tractors w ith bulldozer and ditchdigging attachm ents are also needed. O ne of the m ain stated needs from
countries of the region is for 2,000 relatively small efficient pumps
annually for the next three years (see table 13). These are of the turbine
or centrifugal type ranging from 2 in. to 12 in. Electric diesel and petrol
m otors are also required. T h e pum ps are for installation in tube wells
for raising w ater from rivers and canals, an d for drainage purposes. Large
volumes of w ater an d relatively low lift (5 to 25 foot head) are the
characteristic requirem ent of rice irrigation.
Agricultural machinery and implements. T raditional farm ing practices em ploying m ainly h an d tools and anim al-draw n ploughs still predom inate in the region. A lthough some pow er-operated m achinery had
PA R T II.
64
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
13
S ta ted R equirem ents for Power P um ps on Farms
(units)
Country
1949
1950
B u r m a .......................................
C eylon ....................................
C h in a .......................................
10
15
5 3 6a
70
India
809
In d o n e sia ................................
M a lay a a n d N o rth B orneo .
P akistan .................................. . .
P hilippines ............................. . .
Siam ......................................... . .
10b
15b
300
150b
128
T o t a l ............................. . . 1,973
—
418
1,009
—
1951
100
—
637
1,114
—
4
300
—
64
4
300
—
1,865
2,155
—
a C onsiderable stocks o n h a n d fro m U N R R A supplies.
b F ro m replies to 1947 E C A F E questionnaires.
been introduced a t widely scattered points, recent F A O estim ates in dicate
th a t the E C A F E region has 30 per cent of the w orld’s cultivated land
bu t only 0.3 p er cent of the w orld’s tractors. I t seems unlikely th a t w idespread m echanization of farm ing can be effected w ithout long-term
adjustm ents in land tenure an d a com plete reorientation of fa rm technology. H owever, the urgent need to bring new an d aband o n ed lan d into
cultivation has created a relatively small b u t very pressing need for supplies of tractors and associated equipm ent in the region. T h e stated
requirem ents of Governm ents in the region, as shown in table 14, are
approxim ately 10,000 tractors including 2,000 heavy types over the three
years 1949-51. This requirem ent seems extrem ely m oderate in relation
to world production which, excluding garden types, is likely to reach
700,000 units in 1948. T h ere is no dom estic p roduction of tractors in
countries of the E C A FE region.
Pesticides. Scientific control of crop pests has never been fa r a d vanced in countries of Asia. T h e F A O R ice Study G roup estim ated
annual losses of rice from pests during all stages of p roduction an d
processing a t the enorm ous total of 12 m illion tons. D am age to o th er
agricultural products in the region is also substantial. T h e average
an nual loss of crops from pests and diseases is stated to be about 10 per
cent in C hina, Jap an , In d ia an d several other F a r E astern countries.
As shown in table 15, the stated over-all an n u a l im port requirem ents
for all types of chem ical pesticides for agriculture in countries of the
EC A FE region am ount to some 16,000 to 20,000 tons in the next three
years. T his represents a m arked increase over present a n d p re w ar usage,
bu t in com parison w ith w orld dem and is extrem ely small.
F O O D A ND A G R IC U L T U R E
65
q ~ Ä ä É= 14
Sta ted R equirem ents for Farm Tractors
(units)
Country
1949
B u rm a ....................
10
C eylon ....................
29b
C
C h in a ......................
I n d i a ......................... 300
e
I n d o c h i n a ...............
Indonesia................
84
M a la y a a n d
N o rth B orneo 20f
P akistan ................. 150
P hilippines ............ 129
Siam ........................
8
q
çí ~ ä
KKKK K K
730
Heavy
1950
M edium and light a
1951
µ
1949
140
80b
µ
1950
1951
1949
350
500
150
109b
C
350
45
200
200
15
265
253
265
349
317
310
560
370g
720
20
420
591
20
570
735
20
70f
270
489
38
µ
645
120g
360
30
µ
610
500
e
50f
31
1951
1,460 2,820
430
e
64
1950
350
C
130d 1,110d 2,470d
350
Total a
1,175 2,513 4,345
20
1,905 3,158 4,955
a E xcludes g a rd e n types.
b A n n u a l re q u irem e n ts n o t specified.
c C on siderable stocks o n h a n d , a c c u m u lated from U N R R A aid.
d In clu d e s tra c to rs fo r irrig a tio n works.
e Subdivision into types n o t available. T o ta l re qu irem ents stated to be 200 heavy,
200 m e d iu m types, b u t period n o t specified.
f F ro m replies to 1947 E C A F E questionnaire. Some of these tracto rs have been
delivered d u rin g 1948 a n d it is pro b ab le th a t th e rem ain in g req u irem en t m ay be
spread over m ore th a n one year.
g In clu d es req u irem e n ts fo r pesticide ap plication.
T
a b l e
15
S ta ted Requirem ents for Chemical Pesticides
(tons)
Country
Ceylon ................. .... .... .
C h in a .................... .........
I n d i a ...............................
In d o n e s ia a ...................
P a k istan ........................
Philippines ............ ........
Siam ........................ ........
q
çí ~ ä
KKKKK
a F o r non-estate a g ricu ltu re only.
1949
1950
1951
20
20
1,715
7,600
610
2,160
4,380
80
2,147
7,790
660
2,420
5,250
85
2,690
8,515
660
2,680
6,130
85
20
16,565
18,372
20,780
PART II. PRODUCTION
66
T h e stated requirem ents as given in table 15 consist of the following
categories of chem ical pesticides:
1950
1951
3,559
1,460
2,662
8,884
4,255
1,560
3,142
9,415
4,980
1,860
3,534
10,406
1 6 ,5 6 5
1 8 ,3 7 2
2 0 ,7 8 0
1949
A rsenic co m p ounds ........................
C o p p e r su lp h ate .............................
D D T a n d benzene h e x a c h lo rid e .
O th e r ...................................................
T
o t a l ....................................
All the quantities stated above are required from abroad. Dom estic
production of pesticides w ithin the region is virtually confined to those
of p lan t origin, notably derris. Production of derris root, however, decreased m arkedly during the w ar, from 2,590 tons in 1938-40 to 900 tons
in 1946, in M alaya, Indonesia, the Philippines, Indochina, a n d T aiw an.
A ttem pts to restore production since 1946 have been m ade w ithout
m uch success.
F utu re plans for pesticide production include the com pletion of a
plant in T aiw an, w ith a m onthly capacity of 70 tons, for the m an u factu re
of D D T . Ja p a n has capacity for the m anufacture of arsenicals an d copper
sulphate. Ja p a n was form erly the largest p roducer of p y reth ru m in the
world and exported considerable quantities, b u t production declined
from 12,600 tons in 1938-40 to 2,850 tons in 1945 a n d has not yet
recovered.
O ther requisites. M ost countries in the region are anxious to initiate
or expand research activities on veterinary problems. F o r these purposes
they require the following broad categories of item s from a b r o a d :
(1) m aterials for the production of biologics; (2) laboratory eq u ip m en t;
and (3) drugs required for the prevention an d trea tm e n t of cattle
diseases.
T o expand the processing of food an d industrial crops in the region,
equipm ent such as rice hullers an d polishers, rice-mills, flour-mills, cottongins, oil seed crushers or mills, copra presses, sugar-mills, a n d tea and
rubber processing equipm ent, is needed. F o r the establishm ent of new
pow er-operated sugar and flour-mills, in countries such as C hina, most
of the supplies have to be im ported. T h ere is need, however, for increased
production of simple processing equipm ent w ithin the region.
Losses of food grains in storage, attrib u ted to rodents, insects, etc.,
are very large. Im provem ent in storage facilities, b oth a t term inals an d
during interm ediate stages, is considered m ost u rg en t for agricultural
products because of th eir perishable nature. A ttem pts have been m ade
in some countries to reduce losses by use of fum igants an d insecticides,
to provide tem porary sheds for governm ent stored grains, an d to regu-
F O O D AND A G R IC U L T U R E
67
late storage conditions by licensing warehouses so as to provide suitable
construction an d m aintenance.
R efrigeration offers great potentialities in preserving perishable food
a n d agricultural products like m eat, milk, and fruit, in regard to which
the diet of countries in the region is generally deficient. R efrigeration
is still in its infancy in the region, b ut its im portance is increasingly
recognized th rough planned installation, on the p a rt of some G overnm ents, of ice-m aking plants, cold stores and deep freeze stores, railway
insulated an d refrigerator cars, and insulated and refrigerator trucks.
In regard to fisheries requisites, the basic need is for fibre m aterials,
i.e. for nets, netting, twine, sail-cloth an d rope m ade from cotton, hem p
an d ram ie. Hooks are an o th er requirem ent. Engines and spare parts, fuel
an d the m aterial for building an d fitting m echanized vessels, and in
some cases com plete vessels are needed. A m m onia and m achinery are
needed for ice-m aking, an d salt for processing. A large proportion of the
fibre m aterials is locally produced, b u t a p a rt will have to be im ported
from outside the region.
Finally, slow rehabilitation an d reconstruction of transport systems
in the region makes it difficult to distribute available food supplies to the
population. In Siam, for instance, 1948 surplus rice production had to
go to waste on account of shortage of railway rolling-stock, while elsew here food deficit was giving rise to m alnutrition and starvation. An
early im provem ent in transport, coupled w ith better co-ordination am ong
th e various form s of tran sp o rt (railways, waterways and highways),
w ould go fa r to reduce food deficits in m ajor im porting countries
including C hina, Jap a n , India, Ceylon and M alaya.
CHAPTER V
Industry and Mining
D uring 1948 a m arked general im provem ent in industrial an d
m ining production over 1947 levels occurred th rou ghou t the region
except in C hina. Nevertheless production rem ained well below prew ar
or w artim e levels, a n d relative to oth er regions of the w orld, recovery
proceeded slowly.
F or the region as a whole, total production by all m ajo r industries
increased in 1948 over 1947. Increases were substantial in the production
of tin, crude petroleum , electricity generation, an d chem ical a n d m achinery products. Sm aller increases were registered for iron-ore, coal,
iron an d steel, cotton textiles, silk an d cem ent. I n all cases, except
electric-power generation, however, productio n in 1948 rem ained substantially below prew ar levels.
C apacity in the principal industries is concentrated in In d ia, C hina
and Jap an. F or exam ple, m ore th a n 90 p er cent of the region’s p rew ar
production of cotton textiles, electric power, cem ent, coal, iron an d steel,
chemicals an d m achinery was accounted for by these three countries.
In other countries of the region, the m ain industries1 are based on
m ining — tin, petroleum , iron-ore, an d a num ber of o th er m in erals; there
are also various small-scale industries an d handicrafts.
I n C hina, where in 1948 production generally declined below the
already low levels of 1947, m ilitary an d political developm ents obscured
the purely economic factors influencing production. T h e situation in
C hina cannot be interpreted a p a rt from cu rren t m ilitary a n d political
factors and the consequences of the long w a r w ith Jap a n .
In In d ia there was substantial recovery from the postw ar depression
of 1946-47 and from the dislocations consequent upon the achievem ent
of independence and the partition. However, in spite of record levels
in a num ber of m achinery and chem ical products during 1948, m any
basic industries did not reach their w artim e levels of output.
1 R u b b e r is considered u n d e r a g ricu ltu ral p ro d u c tio n in c h a p te r IV .
68
69
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N I N G
T h e greatest advances in 1 9 4 8 over 1 9 4 7 were registered in Jap an ,
w here the bulk of the industrial capacity of the A FE region is concentrated. T h e general im provem ent in J a p a n resulted prim arily from
increased coal a n d iron-ore supplies, both from indigenous sources and
im ports. Nevertheless the over-all level of production in 1 9 4 8 was only
one-third of the 1 9 3 8 level and less th an half the level which SCAP
economists have estim ated as necessary to remove the need for external
aid.
I n o th er countries of the region substantial advances were achieved.
E ven in those countries w here political unrest still prevails in varying
degrees, production generally im proved. However, prew ar levels were not
approached. F o r the m ost p a rt the im provem ents resulted from progress
in replacem ent a n d rehabilitation of m achinery and equipm ent.
T h ere follows a short study of progress in each of the m ain industries
of the region, after w hich developm ents in individual countries are
exam ined.
M in in g
Iron-ore
T h e p roduction of iron-ore in 1 9 4 8 advanced fractionally over 1 9 4 7
levels — m ost of the increase being in Ja p a n — bu t rem ained at about
one-third of p rew ar levels. W hile production in In d ia and Jap a n was
9 6 p er cent an d 7 1 p er cent respectively of prew ar, the low levels were
concentrated in C hina, M alaya an d the Philippines, all of which were
principal suppliers of J a p a n ’s iron an d steel industry before the war.
T able 1 6 shows the course of production in the m ajor areas.
T
a b l e
16
Iron Ore Production
(thousand tons)
Prewar average
1935-39
In d ia ........................ 2,567
C h i n a ........................ 3,360a
M a la y a .................... 1,682
754
J a p a n ......................
P hilippines ............
911
T
otal
............... 9,274
Wartime
peak
3,116
3,500
1,962
3,586
1,236
13,400
1947
1948
2,450
150
b
497
b
3,097
2,450
158
b
535
b
3,143
S ource: U N M o n th ly B ulletin of Statistics, Jan u ary -F e b ru ary , 1949; Replies to
Q u estionnaires, E C A F E In d u strial D evelopm ent W orking P a rty ; Japanese E con om ic Statistics, Ja n u a ry , 1949; B ulletin of M in in g Statistics o f M alaya, 1947.
a 1936 only.
b Less th a n 1,000 tons.
P A R T II.
70
P R O D U C T IO N
W artim e disruption an d exploitation u n d e r Japanese occupation
brought operation to low levels o r even to a halt, a n d little recovery has
yet taken place in the affected areas. M ost of the present activity in
C hina is in the m ines of H a in a n Island. I n the Philippines a n d M alaya,
rehabilitation of iron-ore m ines has received a low priority in view of
the uncertainties of trad e resum ption w ith J a p a n an d th e absence of
dem and elsewhere. In Ja p a n the w artim e p roduction resulted from
exploitation of lim ited resources of low-grade ore deposits, an d such large
o u tp u t cannot again be expected. In In d ia, o u tp u t has been lim ited by
the dem ands of the iron and steel industry w hich has been h an d icap p ed
by shortages of coal and transport facilities.
Coal
D uring 1948, coal production in the region advanced only slightly
over 1947. T h e sharp decline in C h in a’s p ro d u ctio n alm ost offset the
general advances registered elsewhere, particularly in Jap a n . T h e re gional production of coal consequently rem ained a t slightly less th a n 70
per cent of the p rew ar level and continued to be one of the m a jo r factors lim iting industrial activity. T h e production record of the principal
producing areas is shown in table 17.
T a b l e 17
Coal Production
(thousand tons)
Prewar
(1935-39)
average
C h i n a ................. ----36,900a
In d ia .................
} 28,000
P akistan11 ..........
In d o c h in a ......... . . . .
2,186
I n d o n e s i a ............
1,147
M a lay a ..............
521
J a p a n ...................
45,000
T
otal
.... . . , 113,754
Wartime
peak
1947
46,000
29,721
2,500
281
57,324
135,826
{
1948
19,500e
30,556b
66b
250
300
226
27,240
13,800e
30,300
279
339
519
375
33,720
78,138
79,332
S ource: U N M o n t h ly Bulletin of Statistics. Ja n .-F e b ., 1949; M o n t h l y A bstract
of Statistics, G ov ern m en t of In d ia , Ja n u a ry , 1949; C onference o f C entral A dvisory
Council of Industries, G o v ern m en t of In d ia , J a n u a r y , 1949; Japanese E c o n o m ic
Statistics, Ja n u a ry , 1949; Replies to Q uestionnaires, E C A F E In d u stria l D evelopm e n t W orking Party.
a 1937 only, in c luding M an c h u ria.
b P akistan figures in c lu d ed in In d ia u p to July , 1947.
c P ro d u ctio n fro m all enterprises u n d e r th e N atio n a l R esources Com m ission a n d
p rivate ow ners w ithin N ationalist C hina.
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N I N G
71
Except in In d ia w here ou tp u t of coal has fluctuated in the last ten
years between 28 million and 30 million tons, coal production is well below prew ar. C hina’s outp ut, including th a t from the new mines established in the N orthern Provinces u n d er the Japanese occupation, was a key
factor in the prew ar coal economy of the region. I t supplem ented to a
considerable extent J a p a n ’s needs, particularly of m etallurgical coal,
besides m aking it possible to develop heavy industries in N orthern C hina
itself. I t is the decline of o u tp u t from these sources of coal supply which
has been m ainly responsible for C hina being reduced to a third place
am ong the coal producing countries of Asia an d the F a r East. Even in
the central areas, heavy flooding of mines and exhaustion and deterioration of m ining equipm ent have caused great declines in output.
Since the w ar there has been a record ou tp u t of coal in India, resulting m ainly from the installation of m echanical cutting equipm ent,
although its benefits did not fully accrue to In d ian industries on account
of transport bottlenecks. Expansion w ould have been m ore rapid but for
an enforced lowering of o u tp u t on account of accum ulation of stocks
at pitheads an d for the reduction in hours of work from 9 to 8 a day. As
a result of transport difficulties, stocks piled up, the m axim um being
2,650,000 tons in Ju n e 1948. A significant feature of coal m ining in India
has been the decline in the productivity of labour which has been caused,
not merely by reduced hours of work, b u t also by the need to resort to
deeper cut m ining as u p p er seams become exhausted, and by use of depreciated equipm ent not yet adequately replaced. T h e net annual p ro duction of coal per w orker declined from 141 tons in 1938 to 92 in 1948.
O ver the same period, the daily num ber of workers employed increased
from 201,093 in 1938 to 321,537 in 1947. As against the current output
of 30.3 million tons, the current m inim um requirem ents are p u t at about
32 million tons. As a result, strict economy and rationing of coal are enforced. T h e limits of economy and rationing seem to have been ap proached, however, and there is little m argin left to allow even a modest
increase in the outp u t of cem ent, iron and steel, glass, etc. O n the other
hand , rem oval of transport bottlenecks m ight m ake possible deliveries
of about 10 per cent m ore coal to industrial users.
Coal production in Ja p a n in 1948 increased by 24 per cent over
1947, b u t was still only 75 per cent of prew ar. D uring the war, Ja p a n ’s
coal-mines were heavily exploited. A t the end of the w ar the repatriation
of K orean and Chinese miners necessitated a large-scale recruitm ent p ro gram m e of new an d u n train ed workers. These factors, coupled w ith shorter hours an d depressed living conditions, caused a steep decline in
productivity per m iner since the war. T oday coal miners num ber 454,000
in contrast w ith 264,000 in 1938. T h e im proved o u tp u t in 1948 over
72
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
1947 resulted chiefly from a large-scale m ine rehabilitation program m e
an d from the provision of increased quantities of incentive goods for
mine-workers.
In other countries of the region rehabilitation has been slow in
terms of p rew ar levels of production. In Indochina, although 1948 p ro duction showed an increase of about 35 p er cent over the previous year
on account of rehabilitation of mines in T onkin, current a n n u a l pro d u ction of 339,000 tons is only abou t 15 per cent of prew ar. Official targets
of recovery do not anticipate restoration of the p rew ar level before 1953.
In M alaya, 1948 saw an increase of almost 66 p er cent over 1947 output,
b ut curren t o u tp u t was still only 72 p er cent of prew ar. Substantial
progress was also m ade in Indonesia, although 1948 o u tp u t was only
45 per cent of prewar.
Crude Petroleum
Before the war, Indonesia was the largest produ cer of crude p etro leum in the region. Burm a, Brunei an d Saraw ak were also im p o rta n t p ro ducers. Relatively smaller am ounts were produced in In d ia an d Pakistan,
C hina and Jap an . D uring the war, the industry in the m ajo r producing
areas suffered severe dam age, and, since the w ar, rehabilitation has
progressed slowly on account of continuing political disturbances a n d u n certainties and limited im ports of m achinery an d equipm ent. W hereas,
before the war, production an d consum ption w ithin the region were
m ore o r less in balance, the current low level of production together w ith
growing requirem ents (partly due to shortage of coal) has m ad e the
region a heavy net im porter of petroleum products (see ch a p ter X I I ) .
D uring the w ar the K ansu oilfield in N orthw est C hina was developed,
b u t the vast distances from m arkets an d the inaccessibility of this field
m ake utilization in the n ear fu tu re extremely difficult.
T h e 1947 ou tp u t of 13 million barrels from the wells in Brunei an d
Saraw ak was only next to Indonesia a n d the In d ia n subcontinent. T h e
1948 o u tp u t of over 20 million barrels was the greatest in th e British
Com m onw ealth. Production in B urm a in 1948 was only a fraction of
prew ar. In Indonesia considerably m ore rehabilitation has taken place
th a n in Burm a, and in 1948 Indonesia regained first place am ong the oil
producers of the region. O u t of a total production of about 4 million
tons it is reported th a t exports from Indonesia in 1948 of petroleum
products reached 3.8 million tons, or abou t 60 per cent of prew ar. This
was an increase of some four times over 1947.
In Jap a n , 1948 crude oil production am oun ted to 160,000 tons,
slightly less th a n 1947 o u tp u t and only 47 p er cent of 1938. P roduction
from In d ia and Pakistan in 1948 was 380,000 tons.
IN D U S T R Y AND M IN IN G
73
T a b l e 18
O u tp u t of T in -I n-Ore
(in th o u san d s of tons)
Prewar average
(1935-39)
........................
........................
........................
........................
........................
Malaya . . . . ........................
4.3
10.9
1.4
14.5
29.9
57.1
o t a l ..........................
118.2
B u r m a ..........
C h in a ..........
In d o c h in a . .
S iam ............
In d o n esia . .
T
1947
1948
1.8
4.1
1.3
4.9
1.4
16.2
27 .4
4.3
30.6
45.7
50.9
86.8
..
S ource: Statistical B u lle tin , In te rn a tio n a l T in S tudy G ro u p, M a rc h , 1949;
M a layan Statistics on M in era l P ro duction, M arch , 1949; M inerals Yearbook, U.S.
B u reau of M ines, 1946.
T in
Production of tin-ore during 1948, particularly in M alaya and In d o nesia, advanced substantially over 1947 as a result of continued rehabilitatio n of the mines u n d er high-priority program m es. T in mines in M alaya
an d Indonesia suffered heavily from the scorched ea rth policy on the eve
of the Japanese invasion, as well as from w artim e neglect; mines elsewhere
suffered from lack of fuel and m aintenance during the occupation. In
1948, production in the region was 70 p er cent higher th an in 1947, but
still only 73 per cent of the prew ar average. P rew ar ou tp u t was exceeded
in Indonesia, while in M alaya production was 80 per cent of prew ar
average. In C hina, B urm a, Indochina and Siam, recovery was very m uch
less m arked, the com bined o u tp u t of the four countries being only 33
p er cent of prew ar. (See table 18.)
O ther Minerals
O f other m inerals in the region, perhaps the most im portant is tungsten, of w hich the region’s share of prew ar world o u tp u t was 63 per cent.
In C hina, w hich was the world’s largest producer of tungsten, 1948 estim ates of 9,600 tons reflect an increase of almost 50 per cent over 1947;
however current production was only about 75 per cent of 1938 and
about 55 p er cent of the previous peak. In Siam the 1948 estim ate of
tungsten production is equal to the prew ar level of 200 tons. B urm a’s
1948
production of 2,000 tons represented an increase of 30 per cent over
1947 b u t was only 33 per cent of the 1938 level. T h e over-all production
of tungsten in the region is about 77 per cent of the prew ar level.
Sim ilar trends are noticeable in regard to other minerals. F or exam ple, antim ony production in C hina, which was the biggest producer
in the region, is only about 20 per cent of the prew ar outp u t of 14,000
74
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
tons, in spite of considerable im provem ent in o u tp u t durin g 1948 as a
result of rehabilitation of certain mines. As regards copper-ore, there has
been some degree of recovery, particularly in the Philippines, C h in a an d
Jap an . T h e over-all production of copper-ore shows an increase of ab out
6 p er cent over 1947, an d cu rren t p roduction is ab ou t 78 p e r cent of the
prew ar average. In the p roduction of o th er metals, such as zinc a n d lead,
recovery has been very slow on account of unsettled conditions especially
in Burm a, the m ain producer of zinc an d lead in the region.
In d u s t r y
Iron and Steel
As in most m ajo r industries, Ja p a n was the largest m an u fa ctu re r of
iron and steel in the region. T his was th e result of utilization of in digenous coal an d iron deposits, developm ents in the use of scrap, and
im ports of ore, pig-iron an d coal from several countries of the region.
D uring the w ar Ja p a n attain ed a peak production of 7.8 m illion tons of
steel. R eduction of Japanese production from th a t level to th e 1948
level of 1.7 m illion tons is the biggest single facto r in the trem endous
decline in the steel o u tp u t of the region. Japanese production has fallen
from p rew ar an d w artim e levels because of shortage of high-grade ore,
shortage of coal, deterioration of plant, an d scarcity of refractory m a te rials. As was seen above, J a p a n ’s m ain sources of iron-ore in the region,
particularly M alaya, the Philippines an d C hina, have all experienced
drastic declines in output. D uring 1948, however, J a p a n entered into
several agreem ents w ith countries in the region to obtain a larger share
of their iron-ore, and consequently m ade considerable progress, increasing
production of steel by 82 per cent over 1947.
G row th of the iron and steel industry in C h in a centred on the large
iron an d steel plants in M an ch u ria an d N o rth C hina. I t was this developm ent which m ade C hina the second largest m an u fa ctu re r of pig-iron in
the region. T h e great destruction of iron a n d steel plants in N o rth C h in a
and M an ch u ria as a result of the w ar severely reduced C h in a’s capacity.
O n account of continuing unrest, shortage of coal an d ore, an d tran sp o rt
difficulties, C hin a has not been able to restore o u tp u t either in M an c h u ria
or in other areas, and 1948 production of iron a n d steel was negligible.
In d ia reached a peak production of 1.4 m illion tons of steel du rin g
the war. In spite of pent-u p w artim e dem and an d the dem ands occasioned
by m any new construction projects of high priority, the iron an d steel
industry has failed to m aintain the w artim e level of output. A n im p o rtan t
cause of the decline in o u tp u t has been the continued outbreak of strikes,
accounting for a loss of ab ou t 3.3 m illion m an-days in the first q u arte r
of 1948. T ra n sp o rt difficulties h and icapp ed regular supply of coal an d
75
I N D U S T R Y A N D M I N IN G
ore an d the despatch of finished products. T h e w artim e use of p lan t and
m achinery a t high pressure, in the absence of adequate replacem ents and
im provem ents, particularly in the case of open-hearth plants, refractory
linings an d m illing sections, resulted in a decline in productive capacity.
T h e decline in the iron and steel industry of the region is one of
the m ost im p o rtan t factors responsible for the low level of production
both in industry an d agriculture. T h e shortage of iron and steel is holding up the rehabilitation and expansion of industrial p lan t and transport
systems an d the p roduction of m any agricultural requisites. Even the
construction of housing is being adversely affected.
T
able
19
Iron and Steel Production
(thousand tons)
Prewar average
(1935-39)
Previous
peak
1947
1948
Pig Ir o n :
11
C h i n a .......... ............ 1,535
2,466
6
In d ia .......... ............ 1,668
2,040
1,540
1,470
805
Japan
3,000
360
............ 2,400
S te e l ( ingots or c r u d e ) :
44
57
810
C h i n a .......... ............
1,224
1,200
I n d ia .......... ............
960
1,392
1,705
7,824
936
............ 5,300
Jap an
S ource: R eplies to Q uestionnaires, E C A F E In d u stria l D evelopm ent W orking
P a rty ; Q uarterly B ulletin, M in istry of In d u stries a n d Supplies, G overnm ent of
In d ia , 1948; Japanese E cono m ic Statistics, Ja n u a ry 1949.
C em ent
E xcept in In d ia and Pakistan, where production of cem ent compares
favourably w ith prew ar, and where p lan t expansion has been taking place,
all o th er countries in Asia an d the F a r East fall short of their prew ar
o utput. O ver-all production of the region is only a little m ore th an 50
per cent of prew ar. T h e greatest decline in production has taken place
in Ja p a n , w here considerable capacity is idle. C em ent production has
declined sim ultaneously w ith the decline in the supply of coal. Considerable efforts were m ade in m ost countries to increase production of
cem ent in the cu rren t year on account of its im portance in industrial
an d transp ort rehabilitation. However, owing to coal shortage, nowhere
in the region is capacity fully employed. Even in Ind ia, against the rated
an n u al capacity of 2.1 m illion tons, the 1948 production was only 1.5
million tons. J a p a n ’s rated capacity of nearly 6 million tons produced
only 1.8 m illion tons in 1948. Against the rated capacity of abo ut 160,000
tons in the Philippines, production was only 115,000 tons. Similarly in
Indochina, w here rated capacity is 300,000 tons, production in 1948 was
only 97,000 tons.
76
P A R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
20
C em ent Production
(thousand tons)
Prewar average
(1935-39)
Previous
peak
1947
1948
In d ia .............. ........ 1,500
1,524
2,220
1,440
P akistan . . . .
334
ideulcnI(n I n d i a f i g u r e s )
C h i n a .............. ........
550
710
1,000
500
J a p a n .............. ........ 5,700
6,048
1,236
1,830
115
P hilippines . ........
150
134
190
84
S ia m
.........
100
120
59
B u rm a ............ ........
50
67
..
266
97
I n d o c h in a . . .........
40
..
Indonesia
168
..........
211
240
S ource: U N M o n t h ly B ulletin of Statistics, Jan .-F eb ., 1949; M o n t h ly A bstract
of Statistics, G o v ern m e n t of In d ia , Ja n u a r y , 1949; R eplies to Q uestio nn aires,
E C A F E In d u s tria l D evelopm ent W orking Party.
..
..
C otton Textiles
C otton textiles are the prem ier industry of the region. T ab le 21
showing mill consum ption of raw cotton in C hina, In d ia, P akistan an d
Jap a n , which together account for 95 p er cent of the region’s cotton
textile industry, indicates th a t the region’s pro duction of cotton textiles
has declined in relation to prew ar. T his has been a result of shortage
of raw cotton supplies an d a decline in m an u fa ctu rin g capacity. T his
decline was concentrated almost entirely in J a p a n ; indeed, consum ption
in In d ia and Pakistan showed an appreciable increase.
T
a b l e
21
M ill C onsumption of R a w Cotton
(m illion bales)
Country
Japan
.
India
1946-47
1947-48
................. 3.45
1937-38
0.73
...............} 3.00
3.47
0.61
3.55
0.23
2.90
P akistan . . .
................. 3.08
C h in a
2.87
9.53
7.07
7.29
So urce: W orld Fibre S u rvey, F A O , A ugust, 1947; F A O A n n u a l R e v ie w , 1948.
T
otal
Spindle capacity in Ja p a n has also been drastically reduced, from
11.5 million in 1939 to 4 million in 1948. C apacity in In d ia an d Pakistan
has increased slightly from 10.1 million to 10.4 million, while th a t of
C hina has declined from 5.1 million to 4.9 millon. O th e r countries of
the region have relatively small spindle capacity. C urrently the n um ber
of spindles in Ceylon is reported a t 22,000, H ongkong 150,000-200,000,
In d o c h in a 130,000, Philippines 20,000 an d Indonesia 2,000.
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N I N G
77
T ab le 22 shows cotton yarn an d fabrics production, prew ar an d in
1947 an d 1948, in In dia, Pakistan, Ja p a n and China.
T
a b l e
22
M ill Production of Cotton Yarn and Fabrics
C otton Yarn
(thousand tons)
........
1948
1938
1947
} 527
603
654
122
299
125
336
P a k i s t a n ...............
J a p a n ................. ............ 553
C h in a ................. ............ 394a
Cotton Fabrics
(m illion m etres)
1938
I n d ia ............ ......... 3,930
C h i n a ............ ..........
940a
J a p a n c ..........
2,760
1947
1948
3,450
770
550
3,960
860b
770
Source: E C A F E In d u s tria l D e v elo p m en t W orking Party R e p o rt, 1948; U .N .
M o n th ly B ulletin of Statistics, M ay, 1949; M o n th ly A bstract of Statistics, M arch,
1949, N ew D elhi.
a Y e a r 1936.
b E stim ate based on y a rn production.
c D a ta fo r J a p a n in m illion square meters.
T h e disorganization of the Japanese cotton textile industry is mainly
responsible for the decline in the production of the A FE region as a
whole. Even w ith the reduced p lant, capacity production has not been
attain ed. T h e m ain factors preventing greater production in Ja p a n are,
on the one h and, unavailability of adequate supplies of raw cotton from
non-dollar sources an d on the other h an d the inability to sell greater
am ounts of textiles for dollars w ith which to procure raw cotton from
dollar sources.
In C h in a th e cotton textile industry is concentrated around Shanghai
w here conditions since V J day an d u p to the end of 1948 have been
relatively quiet. Nevertheless short supplies of cotton, fuel and pow er have
been obstacles to full utilization of capacity, an d 1948 o u tp u t of yarn
was only about 85 p er cent of prew ar. A t the end of the w ar the J a p anese-owned textile mills were taken over and operated by the Chinese
G overnm ent.
I n In d ia although production in 1948 was som ewhat higher th an
eith er p rew ar o r 1947, the w artim e peak o u tp u t was not reached. D u ring 1948 there was a recession of com m unal troubles, labour disputes and
absenteeism, b u t replacem ent of m achinery, overworked during the w ar,
78
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
continued to fall short of needs. Efforts to introduce the w artim e practice
of three shifts were resisted both by the m anufacturers, on account of
high cost arising from slow arrival of replacem ent m achinery, un certain
raw cotton supply situation, an d coal and fuel shortage, an d by the w orkers, on account of shortage of food and incentives an d psychological factors. Inadequate replacem ent of w orn-out m achinery perhaps constitutes
the biggest adverse factor in im plem enting any p lan of increasing p ro duction ; 40 p er cent of the existing m achinery is already due for replacem ent. Even for p u ttin g into effect an em ergency three-shift system, it is
estim ated th a t m achinery valued at Rs. 200 million w ould be required.
Although an estim ated over-all increase of 2 to 4 per cent in In d ia ’s cloth
production could be achieved by concentrating on a few varieties and
lower yarn counts, m anufacturers are hesitant to do so on account of
the higher prices obtainable for finer counts.
Mill production of cotton cloth in 1948 was substantially h igher th an
in 1947 in all three m ajor producing countries of the region, b u t was
only about three-quarters of the 1938 level. O nly in In d ia was the 1948
ou tp u t as high as 1938, an d the m ajo r drop in production took place in
Jap an . Figures on the production of cotton fabrics m ust be in terpreted in
full consideration of the facts th a t widths of fabrics an d yarn counts are
not uniform and that, particularly in C hina and to a lesser extent perhaps
in India, there is an enorm ous am o u n t of cottage weaving which does
not ap p ear in the statistics. F or these reasons, d a ta on cotton yarn p ro duction are a m ore reliable indicator of activity.
Production of cotton cloth in the region is concentrated in India,
C hina and Jap an . How ever, appreciable am ounts are produced in o th er
countries. F or exam ple, in 1948 Pakistan reported production of 82 m illion metres, Indochin a 2.8 million, Indonesia 18 million, Philippines 11
million an d H ong K ong 28 million.
Silk
In the developm ent of the w orld’s silk industry Ja p a n has played
a m ajor role. Before the war, m ulberry area accounted for about 10 per
cent of its total cultivated land, and silk for 12 p e r cent of the total value
of its agricultural products. In C hina, on the o th er h an d , since 1928,
civil w arfare and Japanese invasion have resulted in extensive dam age to
the silk industry.
As raw silk production advanced in the region as a whole, com m ercial consum ption of silk cam e to be concentrated in the high-incom e areas
of the world. T h e U n ited States was the principal consum er in the w orld
silk m arket. Jap an , w ith C hina second, was the m ain supplier to the
U nited States, silk constituting about 40 per cent of its total exports up
to 1930. However, d uring the 1930’s the dom inant share of silk in J a p a n ’s
79
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N IN G
exports declined sharply as a result of dim inished dem and an d falling
silk prices.
A significant factor in the decline in the U n ited States consum ption
of silk from the 1929 peak was the progressive displacem ent of silk by
synthetic fibres. Since the w ar, sales of silk in the U n ited States m arket
have been a t very low levels, an d prices have been lowered on several
occasions. T h e degree of displacem ent of silk by synthetics is revealed
by the fact th a t in 1946 the share of silk in the total o u tp u t of wom en’s
hosiery in the U nited States was only 4 per cent as com pared w ith 76 per
cent in 1940.
Since 1940, the need for m axim um food production led the Japanese
G overnm ent to a drastic curtailm ent of m ulberry area. Simultaneously
cocoon production declined and a large-scale dism antling of reeling m achinery was carried out. In C hina also the Japanese occupation authorities
pursued a policy of uprooting the silk industry. I t has been estim ated
th a t 63 p er cent of reeling capacity in C hina was scrapped between 1943
and 1946, and cocoon production declined by 87 per cent.
M achinery
All the countries of the region have small-scale m etal-w orking industries for fashioning tools and equipm ent and m aking repairs needed
by local industries. All have railroad workshops and several have large
ship rep air facilities. However, the production of m achinery on a large
scale is carried on only in Ind ia, Jap a n and China. W hile political developm ents an d shortages of steel and coal sharply reduced production in
C hina, the year 1948 witnessed im portant advances in m achinery p ro duction in In d ia and Japan.
In In d ia, prim arily as a result of new capacity coming into operation,
m achinery production not only increased in 1948 b u t reached record
levels for m any items, e.g., all the items shown in table 23 w ith the
exception of m achine tools.
T
a b l e
23
O u tp u t of Selected M achinery Products in India
Unit
1947
1948
E lectric m o t o r s ................... ..........H .P.
38,000
60,000
T r a n s f o r m e r s ........................ ..........K .V .A .
23,000
80,000
Units
E lectric fans ........................
180,000
160,000
Units
70,000
110,000
M o to r c a r b a t t e r i e s ..........
Units
Diesel e n g i n e s ......................
761
964
Units
M ach in e t o o l s ......................
1,400
1,690
Units
Bicycles ..................................
48,827
51,688
S ou rce: C onference of C entral A dvisory Council o f Industries, Ja n u a ry 1949,
N ew D e lh i
80
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
I n J a p a n m achinery production, as shown in table 24, also a d vanced generally over 1947 levels b u t rem ained well below p re w ar o u tpu t. T h e increased supply of coal an d steel was largely responsible for
the gains; nevertheless a great p a rt of total capacity cannot yet be utilized
because of coal an d steel shortages.
T
a b l e
24
O u tp u t of Selected M achinery Products in Japan
(in units)
1947
5,720
M a c h in e t o o l s ............... .................
168
R a ilro a d locom otives . .................
860
R a ilro a d fre ig h t cars . .................
79,300
Sew ing m a c h i n e s .......... .................
11,885
C o tto n textile looms . . .................
Bicycles ........................... ................. 314,000
9,300
M o to r t r u c k s ................. .................
18,300
D iesel e n g i n e s ............... .................
7,100
Steel coal m in e cars . . .................
S ou rce: Japanese E co n o m ic Statistics, J a n u a r y 1949.
1948
8,050
36
4,300
179,000
36,837
830,000
15,800
22,500
15,000
Chemicals
I n Asia an d the F a r East chem ical production is concentrated in
Jap an . In d ia has a growing chem ical industry, a n d small quantities are
produced in C hina. A lthough salt, a basic raw m aterial, is produced in a
num ber of countries in the region, both from evaporation of sea w ater
an d from m ining deposits, in adequate coal supplies an d electric pow er
capacity, except in Jap a n , lim it a rap id developm ent of the chem ical inT
a b l e
25
Chemical Production (selected items) in In d ia and Japan
(tons)
India
Japan
472,000
99,765
P a p e r a n d P a p e r B o a rd . . .
11,600
Soap .................................... . . 190,000
26,700
2,836
B leaching P o w d e r ..........
6,135
1,800
L iquid C h l o r i n e ...............
75,000
Soda A sh ........................... . . 28,200
107,000
4,383
C au stic Soda ...................
955,000
Su p e rp h o sp h ate s ............ . . 21,358
1,950,000
80,000
S u lp h u ric A cid ............... . .
8.4 (m il.gals)
7.9 (m il.gals)
Alcohol ...............................
S ou rce: C onference o f C entral A d viso ry C ouncil o f In d u stries, J a n u a r y 1949,
N ew D e lh i; Japanese E conom ic Statistics, Ja n . 1949.
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N IN G
81
dustry. T o illustrate fuel requirem ents, it m ay be noted th a t J a p a n ’s chem ical industry in 1948 consum ed 3.9 million tons of coal an d 4,600 million
kwh. of electric power.
O u tp u t in 1948 of several chem ical products in In d ia and Ja p a n is
shown in table 25. I n In d ia all these items were at record levels in 1948,
except paper, alcohol an d chlorine, an d in all cases represented m arked
im provem ents over 1947 production. In Jap an , 1948 production of chem icals was substantially greater th an in 1947, but was only 25 per cent of
th e 1938 level.
In addition to the item s shown in table 25, chem ical production in
J a p a n included a variety of other products, the most notable being am m onium sulphate, 1948 production of which was 945,000 tons (20 per
cent nitrogen c o n te n t), an increase of 31 per cent over 1947. R ayon
production advanced by 100 p er cent b u t reached only 13 p er cent of
the 1938 peak. A lthough w eaving of rayon yarn is carried on in a num ber
of countries of the region, Ja p a n is th e only producer of the yarns and
fibres.
Salt, in a n u m ber of countries, including C hina, Siam, Burm a, Ceylon, In d ia a n d Jap a n , is produced on a large scale from the evaporation
of sea w ater. M u ch of the salt supply of the region, however, is m ined
from salt deposits, C hin a being the chief producer. In d ia ’s total p roduction in 1948 reached a record of 2,180,000 tons, but even so was insufficient for requirem ents. C hina is norm ally a net exporter of salt, and Siam
also produces a n export surplus.
Electric Power
Electric pow er capacity in the region is about 13 m illion kw. to serve
a p opulation of m ore th an 1,100 million. Ja p a n alone has twice as m uch
generating capacity as the com bined total of all other countries in the
A F E region. O utside Jap a n , there is less th an 4 kw. of capacity for each
1,000 people.
T ab le 27 gives estim ates of electric pow er generation for several
countries in 1948, a n d indicates a general im provem ent over 1947. In
In d ia, J a p a n an d the Philippines generation was substantially greater
th an prew ar.
W a r dam age to plants an d lack of fuel constitute the m ain lim itations
to full utilization of capacity. T his is the case in Siam, for exam ple, where
in the absence of coal an d oil, m ore rice husks an d firewood are used for
fuel th an prew ar. Power is rationed by shutting off curren t in certain
areas fo r several hours during the daily peak periods of dem and.
In C h in a coal shortages an d spreading civil w arfare have dealt severe
blows to the industry. In Shanghai, because of the growing shortage of
82
P A R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
26
Postwar Electric Power Capacity
Population
(million)
J a p a n ................. ..........
78
I n d i a ................... .......... 332
C h in a ................. .......... 461
In d o n e sia .......... .......... 69
M ala y a ............... ..........
5.8
Philippines
..........
19.5
Pakistan ............ ........... 72
H ong Kong
.........
1.75
27
I n d o c h i n a .....................
B u r m a ................... .........
17
6.9
Ceylon ..........................
17
Siam ...............................
K W (per
(Thousands of
thousand persons)
KW)
8,539
1,362
1,332
350
120
108
75
72
46
30
21
16
109
4.10
2.88
5.07
20.68
5.53
1.02
41.14
1.70
1.76
3.04
0.94
T o t a l ......................
12,271
S ource: R e p o rt o f E C A F E In d u s tria l D e v e lo p m e n t W orkin g Party, 1948.
coal, m any boilers were converted to fuel oil burners. Supply of pow er
in 1948 fell sharply behind industrial dem and.
In the Philippines, there has been a m arked im provem ent both in
capacity and generation since the war, capacity increasing by 24,000 kw.
T h e im provem ents were m ainly due to the fact th a t after the liberation,
vigorous steps were taken by the U n ited States Army, the N ational Power
C orporation, and by private enterprise to restore dam aged pow er plants.
T h e load growth, however, has increased to a phenom enal extent. F or
example, in the M anila area, the current dem and is twice p rew ar in spite
of the fact th a t there has been a suspension in the operation of electric
T a b l e 27
Generation of Electric Power
(m illion kw.)
1938
1947
1948
2,860
C h in a ................... ..........
3,130c
3,120
In d ia ......................
4,575
}
2,530
4,120
Pakistan .................
{
1 30
J a p a n ................... .......... 30,900
32,400
34,800
145
P hilippinesa . . . . ..........
258
364
35c
45
S iam b ................... ..........
44
S ource: U N M o n th ly B ulletin of Statistics, Jan .-F e b . 1949; R eplies to Q u e stio n naires, E C A F E In d u s tria l D evelopm ent W orking P a rty ; Japanese E co n o m ic S t a tistics, Ja n . 1949; in fo rm atio n supplied by G overnm ents.
a M a n ila only.
b B angkok only.
c 1937.
I N D U S T R Y A N D M I N IN G
83
street cars, th a t a large num ber of houses have been destroyed, and that
m any small factories are still not operating.
Substantial expansion in capacity and in generation has taken place
in In d ia since prew ar. T his expansion, which has averaged about 7 per
cent p e r year, has been in both therm al and hydro plants. Coal and
fuel oil shortages, however, continue to prevent full utilization of therm al
capacity. H ydro plants account for slightly m ore th an one-third of total
capacity an d generate about one-half of total power.
In Jap a n , where the bulk of capacity is hydro plants, an d steam
plants are used largely for standby purposes in the drier seasons, coal
shortages have lim ited full utilization of therm al plants. However, inasm uch as generation an d consum ption of electric pow er are fa r ahead of
general industrial production, an d therm al capacity is only a small p art
of the total, electric pow er capacity and supply do not constitute a
significant lim itation to a n expansion of economic activity.
T h e m ain im m ediate problem of other countries in the region is
to replace w orn-out an d dam aged m achinery and to find adequate
supplies of fuel. R equirem ents for electricity have been growing considerably an d this has increased the pressure on existing capacity. Except
in Ja p a n , scarcity of electric pow er is an im portant deterring factor to
industrial recovery an d expansion.
G
e n e r a l
T
r e n d s
b y
C
o u n t r ie s
India
D uring 1948 the most notable advances in industrial production
in In d ia took place in cotton textiles, In d ia ’s largest industry. Y arn production rose from 603,000 to 654,000 tons between 1947 an d 1948, an
increase of 8 p er cent, an d an o u tp u t of fabrics increased correspondingly.
A ccording to an index p repared by the Eastern Economist, industrial
p roduction in In d ia has shown the following course: Prew ar (1938-39),
100; peak (1943-44), 127; 1947 (9 m onths ra te ), 104; 1948 (9 m onths
ra te ), 115. T h e cotton textile industry, inasm uch as it carries 40 per cent
of the w eight of this index, largely determ ines the total level of activity.
T h e gains in 1948 m ust be evaluated against the earlier postw ar depression in production. Factors lim iting m ore rapid recovery include raw
cotton shortages, adjustm ents related to the political changes in India,
and the need for replacem ent and expansion of m achinery and equipm ent.
Production of pig-iron at 1.5 million tons an d crude steel a t 1.2
million tons rem ained approxim ately at 1947 levels. T ransp ortation
shortages constituted the principal lim iting factor to higher o utp u t of
84
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
iron a n d steel, although the tig h t coal situation an d lab o u r disturbances
also played an im p o rtan t part.
C oal p roduction declined fractionally to 30.3 m illion tons from the
1947 peak o u tp u t of 30.5 m illion tons. T h e m ost pressing lim itation to
expansion of coal o u tp u t is the tran sp o rt shortage. M oreover, since the
railroads require a large p roportion of th e total coal supply, o n account
of the great distances w hich they cover, there is a relatively sm all am o u n t
left for industrial consum ption. In 1948 the railroads consum ed 30 p er
cent of the coal produced against 28 p er cent for industrial uses (excluding electric pow er g e n e ra tio n ). O th e r factors affecting In d ia ’s coal o u tp u t
were considered above in the section on coal.
T ab le 28 shows the 1947 an d 1948 o u tp u t of selected m an u factu red
products, the increases of w hich all resulted from expansion in capacity.
T
a b l e
28
O u tp u t of Selected M a nufactured Products in In d ia
Ite m
U n it
1 947
M a ch in ery
E lectric m o to rs a .................... th o u sa n d h p .
T ran sfo rm ers a ........................ th o u sa n d kva.
Diesel engines a ......................units
M ach in e t o o l s ........................ units
Bicycles a .................................. th o u san d u n its
C hemicals
S u lp h u ric acid a ................... th o u san d tons
C austic soda a ........................ th o u san d tons
Pow er alcohol a ...................... m illion gallons
O th e r
P a p e r a n d boards ...............th o u san d tons
P ly w o o d .................................... m illion square feet
1 948
38
23
761
1400
48.8
60
80
964
1690
51.7
60
3.3
2.2
80
4 .4
3.5
93.1
28.6
99.7
38.6
S ource: C onference o f C entral A d visory C ouncil o f In d u stries, G o v e rn m e n t of
In d ia , J a n . 1949.
a In d ic a te s p eak o u tp u t for 1948.
Increased supplies of raw m aterials account for the increases shown
below.
Ite m
Soap ....................................
R ay o n f a b r i c s ....................
S oda a s h .............................
S u p e r p h o s p h a te s ...............
U n it
th o u s a n d to n s
m illion m e tres
th o u sa n d tons
th o u san d tons
1 947 o u t p u t
80
77.7
13.6
5.0
1948 o u tp u t
190
104.2
28.2
21.3
S o u rce: C onference o f C entral A d viso ry C ouncil o f In d u stries, G o v ern m en t of
In d ia , Ja n . 1949.
85
IN D U S T R Y A N D M IN IN G
T h e steady an d m arked expansion in th e electric pow er industry
continued d u rin g 1948, an d pow er generation reached 4,575 m illion kwh.,
a n increase of 11 p er cent over 1947 an d 81 p er cent over 1938.
A com parison w ith previous peaks indicates som ew hat depressed
levels in 1948 fo r th e principal basic industries:
P e r cen t
p r e v io u s p e a k
G e n e ra l in d ex ............... 91
C oal .................................. 99
Steel i n g o t s ...................... 88
P e r cent
p r e v io u s p e a k
P i g - i r o n ..........................
C o tto n y a rn .................
J u te m a n u f a c tu r e s ...
73
88
84
H ow ever, as noted above, for m any m achinery products and m any
chem icals, 1948 o u tp u t exceeded th a t of any previous year.
T h e re has been an appreciable increase in the im port of capital
equipm en t since 1947. Such im ports have contributed to the increase in
pro d u ctio n a n d should m ake for fu rth er increases in the im m ediate
future. T h e m onthly average im ports of certain capital goods and equipm ent in 1947 a n d 1948 are shown in table 29.
T
a b l e
29
M o n th ly Averagea Value of Selected M achinery Im ports into India
(m illion rupees)
In d u s tr y
1947a
T e x t i l e ( i n c l . c o t t o n & j u t e ) m a c h i n e r y . . . 7 .0
E lec tric al m a ch in e ry ......................................... 5.4
M a c h in e t o o l s ....................................................... 2.6
O il cru sh in g a n d refining m a c h in e ry ............ 0.6
P u m p in g m a c h i n e r y ........................................... 1.1
M in in g m a ch in e ry .............................................. 0.4
P a p e r m a k in g m a c h i n e r y .................................. 0.4
1948b
1 1 .3
10.0
2.7
0.6
1.4
0.8
0.7
S o urce: C onference of C entral A dvisory Council o f Industries, G overnm ent of
In d ia , Ja n u a ry , 1949.
a 1947 averages based u p o n p e rio d A pril-N ovem ber inclusive.
b 1948 averages b ased u p o n p e rio d A p ril-S ep tem b er inclusive.
China
T h e o u tstan d in g exception to th e general im provem ent in industrial
pro d u ctio n in th e region d u rin g 1948 was C hina, w here the m ilitary
an d political situation resulted in econom ic deterioration. I n the basic
industries such as coal a n d steel, the low levels of o u tp u t were little short
of catastrophic. C o tto n textile production declined from 1947 levels but
stood a t about 85 p er cent of p rew ar o utput. Estim ates of the production
of several m ajo r com m odities are shown in table 30.
86
P A R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
30
Estimated Production of M ajor M a nufactured Products in China
Item
C oal .........................................
E lectric p o w e r ......................
C e m e n t ..................................
C o tto n y a r n ...........................
Steel .........................................
T in in o r e .............................
U n it
th o u san d tons
m illion kw h
th o u s a n d tons
th o u sa n d tons
th o u sa n d tons
th o u san d tons
19 47
19,500
3,120
500
299
57
4.1
1948
13,800
2,860
550
336
44
4.9
W hile estimates of production in C hina vary widely, it is nevertheless
clear th a t the m ining an d heavy industries were in a condition nearing
collapse. Consequently those processing industries d ependent on fuel,
m inerals an d m etals have been unable to operate effectively. T h e cotton
textile industry, being centred in S hanghai an d having obtained large
quantities of raw cotton from abroad, has been able to operate a t m uch
less abnorm al levels th an other m ajo r industries.
Before the w ar, trade betw een J a p a n an d C hina, especially N orth
C hina and M anchuria, had attain ed large proportions, an d the economies
had become to a considerable degree in terdependent. T h e collapse of
th a t trade has h ad a severe im p act on both countries, an d has been a
m ajor facto r retard ing industrial recovery.
T h e expansion of the m ilitary arena during 1948 fu rth e r disrupted
the transportation system w ith the result th a t the flow of goods an d
m aterials from one area to an o th er declined. T h e galloping inflation was
an other m ajo r obstacle to recovery (see ch ap ter X I ) .
Japan
T h e greatest increase in production durin g 1948 in Asia a n d the
F a r East was achieved in Jap an . H aving a relatively g reat capacity lying
idle for w ant of fuel an d raw m aterials, J a p a n ’s industrial econom y
responded quickly to increased supplies of coal, iron-ore a n d several
other basic m aterials.
W hile the over-all index of industrial production during the year
advanced by 43 p er cent, m anufacturing industries o th er th an textiles
increased production by 56 p er cent. T his sharp advance was led by
the iron and steel industry as a result of increased supplies of coal and
iron ore. T h e greater supply of coal an d of iron and steel b ro u g h t about
substantial increases in the m achinery an d m etal products industries
generally. T h e fact th a t coal is the life blood of m odern industry was
am ply dem onstrated in Ja p a n in 1948.
Stim ulated by a series of top priority program m es laid dow n by the
control authorities to rehabilitate the coal mines, coal production in 1948
I N D U S T R Y A N D M IN IN G
87
reached 33.7 m illion tons, or 24 per cent above 1947 output. In addition,
alth ou gh exports rose from 815,000 to 1,190,000 tons, coal an d coke im ports rose from 33,000 to 1,170,000 tons (m ainly from the U nited States
an d C a n a d a ) . T h u s the net supply in 1948 was about 27 per cent greater
th a n in 1947. T h ro u g h a rigorous allocation program m e, m ore th an
h alf the increased supply was channelled to m anufacturing industries
other th a n textiles, so th a t they received 12.2 million tons in 1948 against
8.45 million tons in 1947.
T h e iron an d steel industry received the lion’s share of the increased
coal supply. W ith respect to iron-ore, although domestic production a d vanced only 8 p er cent to 535,000 tons, supplies were supplem ented by
im ports of 550,000 tons (m ainly from stockpiles in south C hina) which
com pared w ith no im ports a t all in 1947. T h e greater supplies of coal
an d iron ore not only resulted in m ore efficient operation of the industry
per u n it of fuel, b u t also in an advance of pig iron output from 360,000
tons in 1947 to 805,000 tons in 1948, while crude steel o u tp u t rose from
936,000 tons in 1947 an d to 1,705,000 tons in 1948. (Scrap consum ption
by the industry rose from 1,020,000 tons in 1947 to 1,553,000 tons in
1948).
G reater supplies of iron and steel, as well as coal, brought about an
estim ated increase of 75 p er cent in the o u tp u t of machinery. O th er m ain
industries benefiting directly from the increased coal supply were ceram ics an d chem ical fertilizers. F or example, cem ent production increased
by 600,000 tons or 48 per cent, and am m onium sulphate production a d vanced by 31 p er cent.
Some advances in textile output occurred during 1948. C otton fabrics advanced from 550 million square m etres to 770 million square
metres, b u t this was due m ainly to delayed production of fabrics from
1947
on account of th e tim e lag between the spinning of yarn and weaving of fabric. C otton yarn production in 1948 at 125,000 tons was only
2 per cent higher th a n in 1947.
P roduction of rayon yarn of 16,780 tons and staple fibre of 15,900
tons exceeded 1947 o u tp u t by 136 p er cent and 83 per cent respectively,
principally as a result of increased supplies of pulp and im ports of salt
for m an u factu re of caustic soda. Production of raw silk increased by 21
per cent to 670 tons.
G eneration of electric pow er by the public utilities increased from
29,400 m illion to 31,700 million kwh.1
1 T h e to tals show n in tab le 27 are of pow er g e n erated by pub lic utilities a n d
o th e r sources.
88
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
O f th e increase, 900 m illion kwh. resulted from th e increased allocation of coal to therm al plants. Inasm uch as a n additional m illion tons
of coal were required to increase the pow er supply by only 3 p e r cent,
the value of the allocation m ay be open to question. C om m ercial an d
industrial consum ption in 1948 was estim ated a t 75 p e r cent a n d residential consum ption a t 24 p er cent of total consum ption.
J a p a n ’s progress in 1948 has been impressive, b u t w hen com pared w ith
p rew ar levels, it is clear th a t the Japanese industrial econom y has a long
way to go tow ard recovery or full utilization of capacity w ithin the limits
laid dow n by the F a r E astern Commission. T h e general index of o u tp u t
of m ajo r industries, w ith 1938 as base, stood at 31 in 1948; the p ro d u ction index for coal an d am m onium sulphate how ever stood a t higher
levels, i.e., 69 an d 85 per cent respectively.
M aintenance of the rate of recovery in J a p a n is contingent m ainly
upon continuing increases in dom estic coal pro du ctio n an d in im ports
of basic raw m aterials such as iron ore, coking coal, petroleum products,
raw cotton, wood pulp, salt and o th er ores an d metals.
Burm a
Before the w ar, B urm a was the largest prod u cer in the region of
lead and zinc an d the second largest p ro d u c er of petroleum . M ost of
B urm a’s lead an d zinc resources are concentrated in the rich B awdwin
m ine n ear Lashio while tin an d w olfram come from a nu m b er of sm aller
mines in the southern peninsula. W artim e destruction of the m ines
an d wells was so thorough, postw ar conditions so unsettled, an d shortage
of capital goods so acute, th a t little recovery in production has yet been
achieved. T h e great destruction suffered by the rail an d w ater tran sp o rt
systems has also been a lim iting factor. In 1948, pro du ction of lead,
zinc an d petroleum was only a fraction of p re w ar; however, it is re ported th a t progress was m ade in the rehabilitation of m achinery an d
equipm ent in the oil fields.
T h ere has been some degree of recovery in the production of tin
an d wolfram , although rates of o u tp u t are only about 20 to 30 p er cent
of prew ar.
As in most countries of the region, h an d ic raft industries constitute
an im portant p a rt of B urm a’s economy. C onsiderable progress is re ported du ring 1948 in the o u tp u t of these industries especially in cotton
textiles.
Indochina
In d o ch in a’s industrial production in 1948 registered m arked im provem ents in several lines over 1947 levels, especially in th e no rth ern
area. Progress in the reconstruction of industrial p la n t was the prim ary
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N IN G
89
facto r in the im provem ent of production. Civil unrest and disturbances
an d shortage of fuel an d pow er, however, continued to be m ajo r obstacles
to m ore rap id recovery.
Shortage of m an-pow er and m ine supplies as well as unfavourable
w eath er prevented a greater o u tp u t of coal, although installation of
new equipm ent an d rep air work proceeded satisfactorily. Production of
339,000 tons was 36 p er cent m ore th a n in 1947 b ut represented only 15
p er cent of 1938 o utput. Estim ates place 1949 o u tp u t a t 420,000 tons.
C em ent production of 97,000 tons com pared favourably w ith the
1947
figure of 40,000 tons b u t rem ained below the prew ar level of 266,000
tons. Production in 1949 is expected to be about 150,000 tons. Shortages
of fuel an d pow er a n d occasional fighting in the area of the limestone
quarries lim it a greater volum e of production.
Production of alcohol, soap, glass bottles, beer, ice, oxygen, acetylene, a n d carbonic acid was substantially increased over 1947 levels b u t
d id not ap pro ach prew ar output. W ith im proved supplies of lum ber and
cem ent, new building construction continued to increase.
Salt production of 64,000 tons showed a substantial im provem ent
over the 1947 o u tp u t of 41,566 tons, the entire increase occurring in
S outh A nnam , b u t was less th an 4 per cent of prew ar. Similarly there
was im provem ent in cotton textile production, b u t o u tp u t was only a
fraction of prew ar.
M any im p o rtan t sectors of the m ining industry continued to be inactive, particularly tin, tungsten, m anganese, iron-ore, an d phosphate
rock.
Pakistan
Statistics on P akistan’s industrial activity for the years before 1948
are included in In d ia ’s statistics, and it is difficult to m ake an appropriate
breakdow n of the latter. Industrially, Pakistan rem ains undeveloped although m any basic raw m aterials are produced or can be produced in
abundance. Pakistan produces, for exam ple, large quantities of raw jute,
raw cotton, raw wool, salt, sugar cane, gypsum, limestone, hides and
skins, an d oil seeds.
In 1948, production of coal was 279,000 tons, cem ent 334,000 tons,
cotton yarn 10,886 tons, cotton cloth 82 m illion m etres, an d of crude
petroleum 46,000 tons, while electric pow er generation am ounted to 130
million kwh.
C ottage industries form a substantial p a rt of the economy, providing
m uch m ore em ploym ent th an do the large-scale industries. T h e export of
large quantities of raw m aterials provides Pakistan w ith foreign exchange
for industrial developm ent purposes b u t there is a need for technical p er-
90
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
sonnel. Plans are u n d e r way for industrial expansion, especially of the
textile industry (including ju te m an u fa ctu re s), hydroelectric projects,
an d production of industrial chemicals.
Indonesia
Substantial progress in industrial rehabilitation took place in I n donesia during 1948; in this, EC A funds allocated to Indonesia played
an im p o rtan t part. O n the oth er han d, continuing political difficulties
acted as a brake on recovery.
R ehabilitation of the tin m ining industry proceeded to the extent
th a t 1948 o u tp u t equalled the p rew ar level an d was alm ost double th a t
of 1947. Petroleum production also advanced impressively b u t rem ained
well below prew ar. Production of bauxite increased five-fold over 1947
and exceeded prew ar levels. Electric energy generation rose to h alf the
prew ar level, an increase of 50 p er cent over 1947. T h e transportation
system was also im proved during the year, particularly in respect of in ter-island and coastwise shipping.
Shortage of coal and electric power, however, continues to re ta rd a
m ore rapid rate of recovery in m any of the sm aller scale industries,
e.g., m etal w orking an d textiles. A num ber of such industries which
rely heavily on im ported raw m aterials, are not yet operating a t full
capacity because of foreign exchange shortage.
Philippines
Recovery in the Philippines continued during 1948, bulw arked by
large dollar expenditure by the U n ited States. L u m b er production
reached prew ar levels, advancing by 40 p er cent over 1947. Electric
power generation (M an ila only) was 40 p er cent higher th an in 1947
and m ore th an double prew ar. Coal production, estim ated a t 88,000 tons,
exceeded prew ar levels by m ore th a n 25 p er cent. M u ch slower recovery was achieved in other branches of the m ining industry. Iron-ore p ro duction, which exceeded 900,000 tons prew ar, was insignificant. Gold
o u tp u t of 200,000 ounces was only about 20 per cent of prew ar. C opper
and m anganese likewise were a t relatively low levels. Nevertheless, the
m ining industry showed m arked advances over 1947.
C otton textile production registered im provem ent b u t continued to
be well below requirements. R estoration of road an d w ater tra n sp o rtation was alm ost com pleted, b u t the railroads continued to operate below
prew ar capacity.
T h e longshorem en’s strike in the U n ited States, tying u p ocean-going
vessels for several m onths, m ade an adverse effect on Philippines industry.
A num ber of labour disputes, m ainly over wages an d the cost of living,
had a depressing effect on production.
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N I N G
91
As a result of severe w ar dam age, especially in M anila, there is still
an acute dem an d for new building construction. Consequently, during
1948, w ith the availability of am ple funds and increased supplies of
cem ent an d lum ber, building construction assumed boom proportions.
Malaya
Before the w ar, M alaya was the w orld’s largest producer of tin,
accounting for about one-third of the total supply. D uring the w ar the
industry suffered extraordinary dam age. Since the end of the w ar special
efforts have been p u t forth to rehabilitate the mines, and great progress
has been m ade in the installation of m achinery and in repairs. Production of tin in ore in 1948 of 45,700 tons slightly exceeded 1938 output,
was 167 p er cent of 1947, an d 54 per cent of the record 1940 output.
In contrast, small progress has been registered in the rehabilitation
of the iron-ore mines. Production was less th an one thousand tons in
1948 against 1.7 m illion tons prewar.
Coal, most of which is consum ed by the railroads, showed a notable
increase in 1948. Production of 375,000 tons was 166 per cent of 1947
and 72 p er cent of prewar.
T in m etal production increased from 30,000 tons in 1947 to 50,000
tons in 1948, b u t was still less th an half the record o utpu t of 1940.
M alay a’s m anufacturing industries, a p a rt from tin smelting and
edible oils, are m ainly of a small-scale character, producing principally
for local needs. In general these industries m ade further progress during
1948.
Siam
In du strial expansion in Siam is ham pered by fuel shortages. T he
electric pow er capacity in Bangkok, dam aged severely in the war, has
not yet been rehabilitated, and pow er supply is totally inadequate. Plans
for hydroelectric developm ent are being pushed forw ard b u t realization
will take some considerable time. T h e railroads consume a great q u a n tity of wood fuel, and domestic cooking and heating depend largely on
charcoal. As a consequence of the large consum ption of wood for fuel,
the forest areas are being denuded.
T in prod uctio n increased in 1948 to 4,300 tons in contrast with
1,400 tons in 1947 b u t was only 30 per cent of the prew ar output. T h e tin
m ines are still in need of substantial rehabilitation and replacem ent of
m achinery an d equipm ent. C em ent production in 1948 which am ounted
to 84,000 tons, was 42 p er cent m ore th an in 1947 and only 16 per cent
less th an the prew ar average.
T h e increasing production and export of rice and, w ith it, Siam ’s
increasingly favourable balance of paym ents position, indicate a further
92
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
im provem ent in industrial activity durin g 1949. Vigorous steps are being
taken to im prove th e transportation system. E xpansion of electric pow er
capacity is u n d er way, a n d the textile industry is being enlarged.
Problems of Industrial Recovery
T h e devastation an d econom ic consequences of th e w a r left the
region in a condition little short of collapse. T h e low levels of p roduction
an d trad e contributed to the continuing political disturbances a n d unrest
in m any areas, an d these in tu rn constituted a m ajo r obstacle to recovery.
A sm aller total production of food th a n prew ar, coupled w ith a
growing population, have changed the region from a n et exporter to a
net im porter of food. T his change, together w ith low er p roduction of
several im p o rtan t export an d o th er products, declining w orld dem an d
for several principal export products, a n d lim ited credit resources, has
com bined to m ake the foreign exchange problem extraordinarily acute
an d to restrict the funds available for im po rting goods a n d m aterials
for reconstruction an d recovery. T h e collapse of trad e w ith J a p a n has
also been a significant factor.
T h e principal shortages of producer a n d capital goods w hich lim it
a m ore ra p id recovery in production include agricultural requisites, rolling stock, m ining m achinery, equipm ent a n d parts, petroleum , raw cotton, wood an d wood pulp, coal, iron ore an d steel.
G reater supplies of agricultural requisites w ould facilitate a n im provem ent in food production. T h e needs for these requisites w ere d e scribed in ch a p ter IV . I n particular, the potential requirem ents for chem ical fertilizers are enormous. W hile a great am o unt of experim entation
and instruction in utilization are necessary, the vast m an-pow er resources,
the small scale of agricultural units, an d the ever-increasing need to m aximize yields, are all factors favouring increased use of fertilizers. T his
calls for an expansion of the region’s capacity to produce fertilizers an d
an increase in its production of fertilizer m aterials, especially coal.
W ith an expansion of food output, a n d especially w ith an expanded
yield p er u n it of area, m ore resources could be devoted to th e production
of raw cotton. T h e region’s supplies are fa r below requirem ents, a n d cu rre n t im ports, lim ited by shortages of foreign exchange, fail to fill the gap.
C onsequently, second only to food, cotton textiles constitute the p rin cipal shortage am ong consum er goods. N ot only m ust raw cotton supplies
be increased, bu t spinning an d w eaving capacity m ust be substantially
enlarged both in order to render the region less dep en d en t on foreign
sources an d to raise cotton textile consum ption to m ore ad eq u ate levels.
T h e textile industry is adm irably suited to the n a tu ra l advantages of the
region.
IN D U S T R Y A N D M I N IN G
93
W ith a m ore rap id rehabilitation of oil wells an d mines, m ainly
through the rep air of existing equipm ent an d the installation of new
equipm ent, greater production an d export of m ineral products would be
possible. H owever, for m ost producing countries in the region, im ports
of m achinery an d equipm ent an d foreign technicians are a pre-requisite.
T h e railroads have suffered heavily from w ar dam age an d inadeq u ate m aintenance an d replacem ent. T h e most acute need is for locomotives. W agons and passenger cars are also inadequate in num bers, and
m any need repairs. I n India, particularly, a substantial expansion in in dustrial production cannot be achieved w ithout corresponding expansion
of th e railroads, especially rolling-stock.
In view of the general deterioration in its trading position (see
chapters X I I a n d X I I I ) , the region should attem p t to m eet its needs for
steel products, m achinery an d equipm ent from its own production to the
greatest extent practicable. T h e basic m aterials needed are coal an d iron
ore, both of w hich are in abundance in parts of the region although cu rren t production is low. T o expand o u tp u t of coal and iron ore and to
produce m ore steel are fundam ental to economic recovery an d expansion.
Inasm uch as the region’s capacity to produce steel and m achinery
is currently concentrated in In dia, C hina an d Jap an , most countries of
th e region m ust im port either from these three countries or from outside
the region. In d ia an d C hina, however, except for a few items, have in sufficient capacity to m eet their own needs.
A significant factor affecting the course of recovery an d expansion
in the region relates to the utilization of Ja p a n ’s capacity to produce steel
a n d m achinery. T h e characteristics of the prew ar Japanese economy
were, broadly, the im port of food an d raw m aterials, particularly raw
cotton, the export chiefly of silk an d cotton textiles, an d the large-scale
production of steel an d m achinery for use w ithin the Japanese Em pire.
C urrently an d by contrast the picture is one of a need for even greater
food im ports coupled w ith a catastrophic decline in silk an d cotton textile exports. Ja p a n may, therefore, have to tu rn to the export of steel
an d m achinery, no longer needed either for extraordinary expansion
of dom estic capacity or for supplying a w ar m achine, in order to balance
its intern atio nal accounts. Such a developm ent has been, however, im peded by a n um ber of factors, notably the following:
(a)
T h ere is, for one reason o r another, reluctance am ong countries
of th e region to renew trade w ith Jap an . These reasons include the strong
feelings generated by aggression, th e fear of a resurgent Jap a n , the desire
to take over m arkets once supplied by Jap a n , an d the increasing availability of supplies from o th er parts of the world.
94
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
(b ) T h ere is a t present little surplus food available in the region
for exchange against Japanese steel products a n d m achinery.
(c ) R aw m aterial exports to Ja p a n , especially iron-ore, coal, p etro leum, an d other m ineral products are a t low level.
(d ) C redit facilities are extrem ely lim ited, an d all tra d e arran g em ents involve frequent periodic balancing of accounts in h a rd currencies.
M ore th an three years after the end of the war, the reparations picture is still clouded w ith uncertainty. O nly small quantities of reparations
items have actually been shipped, an d these have been chiefly m achine
tools from arm y an d navy arsenals. T en tative rep aratio n proposals by
the U n ited States W a r Navy C oordinating C om m ittee included a considerable am ount of capital p la n t and equipm ent, notably capacity for
annual production of 2.9 million tons of steel ingots. Early in 1948, how ever, a firm of A m erican Engineers, Overseas C onsultants Inc., afte r a
detailed investigation, recom m ended against the rem oval of any steel
capacity, and proposed a general scaling-down of the reparations p ro posals, on the basis th a t such rem oval w ould injure world production,
would be uneconom ical and would not be in the best interest of the
claim ant nations. W hile the outcom e is still obscure, it is becom ing in creasingly doubtful w hether reparations from Ja p a n will m ake any early
or im po rtant contribution to recovery and expansion in the region.
Increased o u tp u t of staple exports in face of declining or uncertain
world dem and will not solve the region’s foreign exchange problem s. It
is m ore urgent to take the necessary steps, including the im p o rt of m achinery and equipm ent, to increase production of such things as food,
petroleum, raw cotton, coal, steel, an d m achinery, the im p o rt of which
currently calls for large outlay of h ard currency.
CHAPTER VI
Transportation
In m ost of the countries of the region, the railroads carry the bulk
of intern al traffic, bo th passenger an d freight. In lan d waterways and
coastal shipping also carry a substantial p art. H ighw ay traffic is relatively
sm all; so also is civil aviation, although developing at a phenom enal rate.
T h e w ar resulted in great destruction of both railroads an d ships. In tense utilization an d in adequate replacem ent an d m aintenance characterized the tran sp o rt systems of all countries of the region. Since the end of
the w ar, substantial recovery has been achieved b u t inadequate transport
facilities continue to lim it econom ic expansion. A lthough there is p ro duction of wooden vessels throughout the region, there is, except in
Ja p a n , little capacity to produce the larger vessels, vehicles, rolling-stock,
etc., a n d consequently recovery an d expansion of transport systems must
rely largely on im ports from E urope an d America.
R a ilw a y T r a n s p o r t
R ailw ay track
All countries of the region, except India, Pakistan and Ceylon, suffered severe physical dam age to their rail transport system during the
war. These countries have since been attem ptin g to restore their railways, b u t even in C hina, where U N R R A an d post-U N R R A aid provided
substantial equipm ent an d m aterials an d technical expert services, reh abilitation has been slow. U nsettled political conditions have frequently
in terru p te d rehabilitation work, particularly in B urm a and C hina. Civil
disturbance has also caused actual destruction of repaired sections of lines.
In Siam , the Philippines and M alaya, shortages of m aterials, equipm ent
an d technical personnel have been the m ain obstacles to adequate restoration of capacity.
T ab le 31 shows th at, in general, over three years after the end of the
w ar, p rew ar lines have not been fully restored. Even the present degree
of restoration has often been of a tem porary ch aracter; for example,
where lines an d bridges have been partially rebuilt in order to allow
traffic to move. As a result, there are constant breakdowns and interrup95
96
PA R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
31
L ength of R ailway Lines (in kilometres)
1938
B u rm a
........................
3,301
C eylon
..........................
1,468
C h in a a
........................
11,604
Hong Kong
........................
36
In d ia .......................................
} 66,185
P a k i s t a n ..................................
3,016
In d o c h in a ....................... ...................
I n d o n e s i a ................................ ...................
7,400
J a p a n ............................... ...................
24,441
M ala y a .................................. ........................
1,718
P h il ip p i n e s ............................. ........................
1,141
S i a m ......................................... ........................
3,210
1947-48
2,486
1,468
8,507
36
54,500
10,750
1,236
7,400
25,678
1,281
868
3,274
T o t a l .................................... ........................ 123,520
117,484
S o u rce: R eplies to Q u estio n n aires, E C A F E In d u s tria l D e v e lo p m e n t W orking
P a rty ; in fo rm a tio n supp lied by G overnm ents.
a E xclu d ing M a n c h u ria a n d T a iw a n .
tions. Shortages of rails, accessories, steel, cem ent an d o th er fixed installations prevent rapid rehabilitation of lines. T h ere is a general shortage
of iron and steel, both from local an d regional sources as well as from
outside the region, so th a t the m anufactu rin g capacity in In d ia, C hina
an d Ja p a n an d local workshop facilities cann ot be fully utilized. R ailw ay
engineering workshops, for lack of replacem ent of tools, equipm ent,
accessories an d parts, are heavily overburdened.
O n account of civil w ar, C hina h a d to ab an do n m u ch re p air an d
reconstruction work on lines an d bridges in N o rth C h in a a n d la te r in
C entral C hina. A lthough EC A grants of U S$15 m illion w ere m ade in
1948 for the rehabilitation of C anton-H ankow , C hekiang-K iangsi,
Peiping-Tientsin and T aiw an railways, some of these projects have been
interru pted o r delayed. In Indochina, w here th e p e rm a n en t w ay has
been severely dam aged, trains m ust ru n very slowly; civil unrest is
seriously ham pering rail rehabilitation an d causing constant interruptions
and dam age to the lines. T h e line from H aip h o n g to South-w est C hina,
which used to carry considerable traffic, is virtually out of use. I n B urm a
an d Siam also the rate of rehabilitation is slow. I n M alaya ab o u t 75 p er
cent of the p rew ar route m ileage is now open to traffic.
In In d ia and Pakistan, lines have been kept m ore or less intact,
although overw orking has created urgent dem and for rails, accessories,
structural steel, etc. T h e bu rd en of m aintenance has been fu rth e r in creased by great m ovem ents of refugees a n d by strikes. D u rin g 1948 the
two countries agreed to co-ordinate the use of th eir workshop facilities.
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N
97
Rolling Stock
T h e over-all rolling stock position continues inadequate for the needs
of the region, p articu larly in view of the decline in inland coastal w atercraft capacity an d the deterioration of road vehicles. Except in Jap an ,
rehabilitation an d restoration of rolling stock is prim arily dependent on
im ported locomotives, wagons, coaches and accessories. Ja p a n ’s capacity
to produce these is still under-utilized, b u t its ability to m eet in p a rt the
dem ands of Asian countries depends on resum ption of trade. Foreign
exchange shortage restricts im ports from this an d other sources.
N eeds for m aintenance of existing rolling stock have increased considerably on account of the over-age of vehicles now in use. A bout oneth ird of th e locomotives in In d ia are 35 years or m ore in age. In other
countries the percentage of over-age locomotives is high, varying from 12
to 25 p er cent. T h e percentage of over-age passenger an d freight cars is
also h igher th an prew ar.
T h e work of m aintaining existing rolling-stock is partly dependent on
the quality an d volum e of services rendered by the railway and engineering workshops, w hich themselves suffered considerable dam age and overwork during the war. T h e present inadequacy of m achines and m achine
tools an d of skilled labour seriously handicaps norm al servicing by the
shops. T h e tim e involved in servicing and repairing is greater and the
breakdow n of rolling-stock is m ore frequent. Shortage of im ported spare
parts a n d accessories results in rolling-stock being kept in use which
would ordinarily be sent for repair.
T
a b l e
32
N u m b e r of Locomotives in use
1938
1947-48
360
B u r m a ........ .....................................................
.....................................................
1,339
C h in a a
.....................................................
249
Ceylon
17
H o n g K o n g .....................................................
I n d i a ............
.....................................................} 8,985
Pakistan . . .
210
In d o c h in a . . .....................................................
1,004
In d o n e sia . . .....................................................
J a p a n .......... ..................................................... 4,735
.....................................................
173
M a lay a
178
Philippines . .....................................................
..........................................
207
271
2,171
258
17
7,600
1,247
122
TOTAL
6,283
225
90
335
17,457
18,619
S o u rce: Replies to Q uestionnaires, E C A F E In d u s tria l D evelo pm en t W orking
P a rty ; info rm atio n supplied by G overnm ents.
a E xcluding M a n c h u ria a n d T aiw a n .
PA R T II.
98
P R O D U C T IO N
T ab le 32 on page 97 shows th a t th e n u m b er of locom otives is below
p rew ar in several countries of the region in cluding B urm a, In d ia an d
Pakistan, Indo ch ina, a n d the Philippines. Increases are re p o rted by
C hina, Ceylon, M alaya, Siam a n d Ja p a n . F o r the A F E region as a
whole, th e num bers have increased because of the substantial increases
in C hina an d Jap an .
T able 33 indicates th a t the n um b er of freight wagons in the region
has increased because of substantial increases in C hina, Ja p a n , In d ia an d
Pakistan, In d ochina an d Siam. C ountries reporting decreases include
Burm a, H o n g Kong, M alaya an d the Philippines. T h e nu m b er of passenger cars in the region has declined except in C hina.
T
a b l e
33
N u m b e r of Passenger and Freight Cars
P asse nger cars
1938
1947-48
B u r m a ........................... ...............
Ceylon ........................ ...............
C h in a a ........................ ...............
H o n g K o n g ............... ...............
I n d i a .............................
}
Pakistan ......................
I n d o c h i n a ................... ...............
In d o n esia .................... ..............
Ja p a n ........................... ...............
M alaya ........................
Philippines ................. ...............
Siam ............................. ...............
T ot a l
..................
...............
893
839
2,476
44
26,335
293
790
4,172
17
14,580
4,000
205
1938
F r e ig h t cars
1947-48
9,084
2,739
17,294
134
221,509
2,866
..
12,286
397
322
11,709
199
310
296
2,123
22,959
87,373
5,000
2,427
3,812
46,896
36,551
374,454
438
7,971
2,769
37,283
48
196,530
36,664
2,296
,.
107,716
3,884
2,088
5,392
402,641
Source: Replies to Q u estionnaires, E C A F E In d u s tria l D e v e lo p m e n t W o rk in g
P a rty ; info rm atio n supplied by G overnm ents.
a E x cluding M a n c h u ria a n d T aiw an .
R ailw ay Traffic
In M alaya, passenger traffic is currently one-third of the 1939 level.
In Burm a, In d o ch in a an d the Philippines, it is also rep orted to be less
th an prew ar. O n the o th er h an d , in m any countries, particularly In d ia
an d Pakistan, Siam, C h in a an d Ja p a n , pressure of passenger traffic has
increased very considerably. In In d ia an d Ja p a n , for exam ple, w hile the
average length of trip p er passenger shows little change, the num bers
carried have increased by 100 an d 150 p er cent respectively.
Except in M alaya, w here there has been an increase of 5 p e r cent in
freight ton-miles over 1939, an d in In d ia, w here there has been a n in crease of about 18 p er cent, freight traffic is generally below p re w ar levels.
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N
99
In B urm a, freight traffic in 1948 was only 47 p er cent of prew ar. In
C hina freight ton-kilom etres in 1947 were som ew hat less th a n prew ar,
an d in Siam freight ton-kilom etres in 1947 were only 30 p er cent of
prew ar. T h e transportation bottlenecks and inadequacies are im p ortant
factors in the cu rren t low levels of exports of rice from the surplus countries of South-east Asia— Burm a, Siam and Indochina.
A com parison of the railw ay situation and the operational results in
J a p a n an d In d ia, w hich together account for over tw o-thirds of the
total railro ad capacity in the region, is instructive. C urrently the railroads
are bearing the principal burden of transportation both in In d ia and in
Ja p a n , whereas before the w ar, in the case of Jap a n , coastwise shipping
was a m ajo r p a rt of the freight tran sp o rt system. Nevertheless, the transp ortation problem is m ore acute in In d ia th a n in Jap a n , an d constitutes
m ore of a lim iting factor to expansion of industrial production. A lthough
th e railroad system is larger in In dia, the distances also are m uch greater
as shown by the following figures of track and rolling stock:
India
K ilom etres
N u m b e r of
N u m b er of
N u m b e r of
of tr a c k ........................... 54,500
locom otives ..................
7,600
passenger coaches . . . . 14,580
w agons ......................... 196,530
Japan
25,678
6,283
11,709
107,716
T h e Japanese system is currently carrying an average of 8.7 million
tons of freight p er m onth against 7.7 million tons in India. Passengers
carried in Ja p a n are 270 m illion per m onth, com pared w ith 85 million
in In dia. However, In d ian railroads carry the average passenger 50 kilom etres against 26.5 kilometres in Jap an , and the average h au l per ton
of freight in In d ia is 322 kilometres, against 201 kilometres in Japan.
T h e greater distances offset the smaller num ber of passengers and quantity
of freight tonnage, an d place an acute strain on In d ia ’s relatively small
n um ber of locomotives. T hey are also the reason why In d ia ’s railroads
used 8.8 m illion tons of coal in 1948 in com parison w ith the 7.4 million
tons used by Ja p a n ’s railroads. R ailroad coal consum ption was 30 per
cent of the total supply in In d ia and 22 per cent of th a t in Japan.
W
a t er
T
r a n s po r t
F rom the incom plete statistics available, it seems that, except in
countries w hich continued to be affected by civil disturbances, w ater
transport for both foreign and domestic trad e showed an increase in
1948
as com pared w ith 1947, but was still m uch below prew ar.
T h e average m onthly entrances and clearances of vessels w ith cargo
in foreign trad e for the seven countries shown in table 34 increased by
21 p er cent over 1947, b u t was still 35 p er cent below the p rew ar level.
100
P A R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
34
M o n th ly Entrances and Clearances of Vessels w ith Cargo
in E xternal T rade
(thousand n et registered tons)
Prewar a
E n te r e d
C le a r e d
Ceylon ........................
891
C h i n a ........................... 1,480
H o n g K o n g ...........................
In d ia c ........................
753
I n d o c h i n a .............................
M alayad ...................... 1,354
Siam ...........................
70
T o t a l
................. 4,548
868
1,473
..
792
301
1,308
85
4,827
1947
E n te r e d
C le a r e d
331
838
188
517
..
789
43
2,706
312
831
71
476
107
699
50
2,546
1948b
E n te r e d C le a r e d
470
905
186
674
..
946
68
3,249
47 0
909
85
535
123
894
92
3,108
(J a n .-N o v .)
(J a n .-D e c .)
(J a n .-O c t.)
(A p ril)
(J a n .-O c t.)
( J a n .-O c t.)
(Ja n .-S e p .)
(J a n .-N o v .)
S ource: U n ite d N a tio n s M o n t h l y Bulletin o f Statistics, Ja n u a ry -F e b ru a ry ,
1949; T h e T ra d e of C hina, 1937, V ol. I ; M o n t h l y R e tu r n s o f Foreign T r a d e of
China, D ecem b er, 1947, D ecem b er, 1948; Far E astern E c o n o m ic R e v ie w , N ov.
17, 1948.
a P re w a r years refer to 1937 fo r C eylon, C h in a , In d ia a n d Siam , a n d 1938
fo r In d o c h in a a n d M alaya.
b R efers to average of m o n th s d u rin g th e yea r as in d ic a te d in p a re n th ese s a t
rig h t h a n d side.
c F o r p rew ar, covers U n d iv id e d I n d i a ; fo r 1947 a n d 1948 refers to In d ia n
U nion. 1947 figures rela te to th e fo u r m o n th s fro m A u g u st to N o vem b er, as those
for th e rem ain in g fo u r m o n th s D ecem b er to M a r c h a re n o t available.
d Covers th e F e d e ratio n of M ala y a a n d Singapore.
W ater-borne cargo traffic in dom estic trad e— coastwise, interinsular,
or river— generally showed signs of increase in 1948 as com pared with
1947.
In C hina the distance covered by river lines for steam vessels in creased from 39,480 kilometres in 1947 to 52,180 in 1948, a n d the to n nage of vessels from 1.04 million to 1.13 m illion tons. H ow ever, on ac count of civil w a r an d the diversion of shipping to m ilitary operations,
the volume of traffic rem ained m ore or less unchanged. Passenger tra ffic averaged 294 million passenger-kilom etres m onthly in 1948 (9
m o n th s), as com pared w ith 290 m illion in 1947, while goods traffic averaged 1,106 million ton-kilom etres m onthly as com pared w ith 962 m illion in 1947. T h ere was little variation in the volum e of traffic until
Septem ber, w hen a spectacular drop took place. As com pared w ith the
preceding m onth, Septem ber cargo traffic was only one-third, an d passenger traffic only two-fifths.
I n B urm a, inland w ater craft used to carry m ore freight, though
few er passengers, th a n railways. Three-fifths of the gross tonnage of
vessels, however, was lost d u ring the war, an d in 1947 gross tonnage
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N
101
am ou nted to 47,480. I n 1948, gross tonnage was fu rth e r reduced to
45,940. O n 1 Ju n e, 1948, the In la n d W ater T ra n sp o rt Board was established to nationalize all enterprises in the field. I t took over the operations
of the Irraw ad d y Flotilla C om pany which, before the w ar, h ad handled
practically all public carrier traffic in Burm a, an d w hich since 26 January,
1946
h a d u ndertaken operations on behalf of the G overnm ent, reportedly
a t a loss.
O f countries whose shipping in domestic trad e increased in 1948,
Ja p a n was the m ost notable exam ple. T h e average m onthly cargo shipm ent in coastal trad e carried in Japanese-ow ned vessels increased to 3.6
m illion tons in 1948 from a total of 2.4 million tons in 1947 and only
1.5 m illion tons in 1946.
In In d ia, except in a few cases, inland w ater transport is of m inor
im portance, it goods traffic in term s of ton-kilom etres being only one per
cent of th a t of the railways. T h e partitio n of In d ia an d Pakistan poses
certain problem s of w ater transport in the G anges-B ram aputra delta
w hich m ay find their solution in some sort of an international river system
agreem ent.
In Indonesia, half the inter-island fleet was lost during the war.
R eplacem ent by suitable types of ship will be necessary and it is reported
th a t large orders for these have been placed by private shipping com panies. T h e inter-insurla shipping freight was reported to have increased
from 279,900 tons for the first q u arte r of 1947 to 510,600 tons for the first
q u a rte r of 1948; during the second quarter, it rose fu rth e r to 640,700
tons.
I n M alaya, total tonnage of m erchant vessels of over 75 tons, w ith
cargo arriving and departing a t the ports of Singapore, Pen ang, M alacca
a n d P ort Dickson, P ort Sw ettenham and T u m p a t (K e la n ta n ), increased
from 41,000 in O ctober 1947 to 60,000 in O ctober 1948.
T h e inland w ater craft tonnage in the Philippines increased from
157,000 in 1947 to 278,000 in 1948. I n Indochina, the p rew ar fleet of
373,000 tons, mostly wooden craft, increased to 422,000 tons in 1948.
R
o a d
T
r a n s po r t
As com pared w ith prew ar, available postw ar d a ta point to a n in crease in the length of highways of all types in In d ia an d Pakistan,
Ceylon, C hina, the Philippines an d Siam, an d a decrease in Burm a,
In d o ch in a and Jap an . C hina built a n um ber of new highways during the
w ar to m eet em ergency needs after railways an d waterways h a d been
occupied by th e Japanese. New roads have been built, since the war, in
Ceylon, In d ia and Pakistan, the Philippines, an d Siam. O n the other
h and, owing to postw ar disturbances in B urm a an d In dochina an d to lack
102
PA R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
35
L en g th of highways (in kilometres)
Country
B u rm a .............................
Ceylon .............................
C h in a ...............................
H o n g K o n g ....................
I n d i a / P a k i s t a n ...............
In d o c h in a ......................
In d o n esia ........................
J a p a n ...............................
K o re a , S outh .................
M alaya
F e d e ratio n of M alaya
S ingapore .................
Philippines ......................
S i a m ..................................
Prewar e
27,463
5,603
109,000
302.883
27,750
65,000
939,593
19,175
4,466
1947
13,409
6,417
131,466
644
303,142a
26,000
1948
10,242
131,912
624
306,631c
919,621
14,267
10,444b
449
24,659
6 ,280d
23,850
Source: R eplies to E C A F E Q u estio n n a ire s; E conom ic S u rv e y of A sia a n d the
Far E ast, 1947; in fo rm atio n supplied by G overnm ents.
a Refers to th e year en d ed 31 M a rc h 1944.
b R efers to le n g th covered by om nibus service. E q u iv alen t figure for 1946 is
8,047 kilometres.
c In d ia only.
d Refers to 1946.
e P rew ar years refer to 1937 for C h in a an d In d ia , 1938 fo r B u rm a , In do nesia,
an d th e Philippines, an d 1939 for C eylon, J a p a n a n d Siam.
of building m aterials in Jap a n , the highways in these countries were
reduced in length. (See table 35.)
T h e num ber of registered m otor vehicles showed a decrease of about
2 p er cent com pared w ith prew ar owing to w artim e losses an d postw ar
foreign exchange shortage, and in spite of supplies to certain countries in
the region through U N R R A , ECA, SCA P an d o th er sources. Num bers
increased in Ceylon, In d ia an d Pakistan, M alaya, the Philippines an d
Jap a n , b u t decreased in C hina, In d o ch in a an d Indonesia. T h e A F E
region as a whole has a total of slightly m ore th a n h alf a m illion registered vehicles distributed as follows: In d ia an d Pakistan 153,300; Ja p a n
129,500; Philippines 73,600; C hina 56,000; M alaya 41,800; Ceylon
33,900; Indonesia 24,600, H ong K ong 6,600, an d In d o c h in a 1,700 (see
table 3 6).
Before the war, com m ercial vehicles constituted only ab o u t 39 per
cent of the total, whereas currently they represent about 54 p er cent.
103
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N
T a b le 36
N u m b er of Registered M otor Vehicles
Country
Prewarb
C eylon .................
C h in a ...................
H o n g K o n g ................
I n d i a c .................
P a k istan c ............
In d o c h in a ..........
In d o n e s ia e ..........
J a p a n g .................
K o r e a ...................
M a lay a
F e d e ra tio n
of M a l a y a . . .
S ingapore . . .
P h i l i p p i n e s ..........
S i a m .......................
Passenger carsa
1947
20,181
46,980
..
91,782
22,927
20,374
4 ,3 0 9
113,172f
..
48,014
35,170
5,047
738
12,500d
19,985
3,498g
20,452
11,028
34,000
4,447
15,612
8,000
21,966
..
1948
Prewar
7,045
17,655
..
37,344
2 0 ,9 6 6
21,303
28,823
..
20,408
77,846
3,947
6,524
2,836
21,200
4,684
Commercial vehiclesb
1947
1948
10,938
35,650g
2 ,3 3 8
40,1 07 f
..
3 ,7 6 4
985
12,136d
89,135
108,214
9,955g
12,627
5,520
38,244
44,789
S ource: R eplies to E C A F E Q u estio n n aires; U n ite d N ations Statistical Yearbook
1948 ( I n press) ; E co n o m ic S u rvey of Asia and the Far East 1947; Statistical Yearbook o f the R e p u b lic of China, J u n e 1948; info rm atio n supplied by G overnm ents.
a Passenger cars of seating c apacity of n o t m ore th a n seven persons including
taxis b u t excluding buses, tw o a n d three-w heeled m otorcycles an d vehicles operated
by th e m ilitary.
b In c lu d in g lig h t a n d heavy lorries, trac to r-tra ile rs a n d buses, b u t excluding
lig h t railers fo r passenger cars, tricycles, fa rm a n d ro a d tractors, am bulances a nd
service vehicles o p erated by a G overn m en tal auth o rity .
c P re w a r a n d 1946-47 figures fo r Pak istan are inclu ded u n d e r In d ia.
d R efers to regions u n d e r con tro l of N eth erlan d s G o vernm ent only.
e R efers to U n d iv id e d In d ia .
f F o r th e financial year en d ed 30 M a rc h 1947.
g R efers to sta n d a rd size vehicles.
b P re w a r yea r refers to 1937 fo r Ceylon, C h in a , Indonesia, J a p a n , K o re a a n d
S iam ; 1939 fo r In d ia , In d o c h in a a n d S in g ap o re; a n d 1940 for th e M alayan
Fed eratio n .
A ir
T
r a n s po r t
C onditions in the region tend to favour developm ent of air transport. Surface transp ort is relatively undeveloped an d in m any cases disru pted, distances are great, and the terrain is in m any places so difficult
as to ren der surface transport prohibitively slow an d expensive. T h e
capital cost of instituting air services, at least w ith the sm aller types of
transpo rt aircraft, is fa r less th an th a t of establishing surface transport
systems. O n the other hand, technical requirem ents for personnel, flight
equipm en t an d ground installations are exacting.
T h e ability of air transport to com pete as a regular carrier of passengers an d m ail, even against well-developed forms of surface transport,
104
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
has already been dem onstrated th roughout th e world. Its ability to com pete as a carrier of freight depends on special circum stances, am ong
w hich difficulties of terrain are im p o rtan t. W here a destination is d ifficult of access by reason of m ountainous o r o th er features, it m ay often
be found th a t air tran sp o rt is an even cheaper m eans of carriage th a n
prim itive surface transport.
T able 37 indicates th e developm ent of a ir tran sp o rt in five countries
of the region. T h e figures relate, in general, only to scheduled a ir services
of civil airlines registered in the countries concerned. I n d raw in g conclusions from these figures, it m ust be rem em bered, first, th a t in th e F a r
East, as in o th er parts of the world, there has recently been a considerable
developm ent of non-scheduled ch a rter an d co n tract a ir services; second,
th a t most air services in the region were operated on a m ilitary o r sem im ilitary basis du ring the w ar, a n d th a t some are still being so o p erated ;
th ird , th a t m u ch of the air tran sp o rt in the area is provided by airlines
based outside the area. These reservations, ad ded to th e un settled condition of m ost countries in the region, m ake it difficult to d ra w reliable
conclusions from the figures. Some id ea of th e poten tial developm ent of
air tran spo rt in the F a r East may, however, be obtained by com paring
the figures for 1937 an d 1947. F o r exam ple, in C hina, In d ia a n d the
T
a b l e
37
Distances Flow n by Scheduled Airlines, 1937-47
(thousand kms.)
(A n n u a l totals fo r scheduled a ir services reg istered in e a c h c o u n try )
Year
1 9 3 7 .................
1 9 3 8 .................
1 9 3 9 .................
1 9 4 0 .................
1 9 4 1 .................
1 9 4 2 .................
1 943.................
1 9 4 4 .................
1 9 4 5 .................
1 9 4 6 .................
1 9 4 7 .................
China a
............... 3266
............... 2677
............... 2049
............... 2439
............... 2282
............... 1163
............... 1102
............... 1504
............... 3239
...............12187b
............... 19053
India
Japan
Philippines
Siam
T otal
2186
4992
6153
7336
7227
7547
7421
8438
8506
1606
1530
1512
1432
1114
125
154
157
232
426
305
162
d
d
d
148
9967
11320
12175
10514
13768
13511
13448
11495
12801
13542
8765
29427
45436
2714
2181
2079
2606
3099
3412
5342
7273
15063c
..
..
..
120
36
..
S o urce: D a ta supplied by th e In te rn a tio n a l C ivil A viation O rg a n iza tio n .
a Inclu des, in a d d itio n to C h in a N atio n a l A viation Co., th e o p era tio n s of C e n tra l
A ir T ra n s p o r t C orp. (u n til 1943 k n o w n as E u rasia A v iation C o .).
b F ro m N ovem ber 1946, includes th e n o n -sch ed u led o p eratio n s o f C ivil A ir
T ra n sp o rt.
c E xclu ding P akistan fro m A ugust 15, 1947.
d Since 1945, aviatio n has b een c arried o u t by th e S u p rem e C o m m a n d fo r A llied
Powers.
105
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N
Philippines, th e to tal distance covered increased from 7.1 m illion kilom etres in 1937 to 45.4 million kilometres in 1947. T h ere is little doubt
th a t, given stable conditions an d a rising standard of living, air transport
should be able to show a t least as rap id an expansion in the next decade.
In C hina th e volum e of traffic during 1948 expanded m ore rapidly
th an the facilities to h andle it. W hile the num ber of planes increased from
84 in 1947 to 88 in 1948, th e m onthly volume of passenger traffic rose
from 19.3 m illion to 37.7 m illion passenger-kilometres.
T ab le 38 shows th at, as com pared w ith 1937, the grow th in Chinese
civil aviation has been very rapid. In term s of m onthly averages, the
volum e of freight an d m ail traffic betw een 1937 and 1948 has increased
117 times, w hile th a t of passenger traffic has increased 26 times.
T
a b l e
38
Average M o n th ly Civil A viation Statistics in China
N o. of p la n e s .................
L e n g th of o p eratin g
lines (th o u sa n d km .)
N o. of passengers
(th o u sa n d s) ............
F re ig h t a n d p o st tr a ffic (th o u sa n d tons)
Passenger-kilom etres
(m illion) .................
T on -kilom etres
(m illio n ) ..................
1937
1945
1946
1947
29
68
84
84
88
9
22
43
78
86
5.08
21.58
24.75
53.44
2.39
1.27
3.02
4.88
4.64
18.80
19.26
37.73
1.92
.036
1.44
1948a
.028
2.14
1.26
2.33
3.28
S ource: Statistical M o n th ly , D irecto rate of Statistics, N anking. N ovem ber-D ecem ber, 1948, p .5 8 (in C h in ese ).
a Ja n u a ry -S e p te m b e r average.
I n In d ia civil aviation has also developed rapidly, b u t com pared to
C hina, th e volum e of traffic is m uch smaller. T able 39 shows th a t in
A ugust 1948 th e volum e of freight an d m ail traffic reached 490,100 tonkilometres while th a t of passenger traffic reached 23.5 m illion passengerkilometres. Between 1939 and 1947, freight and m ail traffic increased
fifteenfold while passenger traffic, in term s of passenger-kilom etres, in creased m ore th a n a hundredfold. As com pared w ith the last q u arte r of
1947, im m ediately after partition, freight an d m ail traffic in August 1948
increased by 35 p er cent and passenger traffic by 10 p er cent.
In Pakistan, in the period of 16 m onths, from partitio n to the end
of 1948, there was a fairly rapid advance in civil aviation, as shown in
table 40.
106
PA R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
39
a bl e
Average M o n th ly Civil Aviation
Statistics in India
1939
H o u rs flown (th o u san d s) . . .
1.17
C a p a city (m illion
ton-kilom etres) ...................
Passenger traffic
No. of passengers
.30
(th o u san d s) ........................
M illion passenger-km s. .
.18
F re ig h t traffic
2.3
(th o u sa n d to n -k m s.) . . . .
M ail traffic
(th o u sa n d ton-km s.) . . . . 27.2
T o ta l load
(th o u sa n d ton-km s.) . . . . 45.4
1947
A p r .- J u n e O c t.-D e c .
average
average
A u g u st
1948
1945
1946
1.82
2.50
5.27
4.76
6.96
.37
1.14
2.56
2.66
3.72
2.01
8.79
8.19
21.90
18.91
24.71
21.34
26.96
23.53
2.24
34.0
52.3
148.2
238.3
294.2
23.0
71.1
117.0
124.1
195.9
261.8
847.5
1,933.4
2,266.1
2,608.8
Source: E astern E conom ist Dec. 31, 1948, p. 1164.
In Indonesia, air passenger traffic increased from 17.6 million passenger-kilometres during the fo u rth q u a rte r of 1947 to 29.5 million d u r ing the third q u arte r of 1948; air freight traffic during the same period
increased from 2.2 million to 3.9 million ton-kilometres. C om pared with
the 1939 quarterly returns, this represented a twelvefold increase for
passenger traffic and more th an a hundredfold for freight.
In Indochina, passenger traffic increased from 64,213 passengers in
1947
to 226,302 in 1948 while freight traffic increased from 2,641 to
T
a bl e
40
Civil Aviation Statistics in Pakistan
August 15,
1947
No. of a ir tra n sp o rt com panies. .
A ircraft in o p era tio n ...................
R o u te le n g th ( k m s . ) ......................
Average m o n th ly traffic h an d le d
d u rin g period A ugust 15, 1947
to end of 1948a ......................
H o u rs flown ...........................
No. p a s s e n g e r s ........................
M ail traffic ( k g s ) ....................
F reig h t traffic (kgs) ............
December 31,
1948
1
9
1,103
1
32
7,986
3,379
7,836
41,074
194,203
S o u rc e : D a ta supplied by th e Civil A viation D e p a rtm e n t, M inistry of Defence.
a E x cluding traffic in transit.
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N
107
11,325 tons. Both in 1947 an d 1948 m ore th an half the passenger and
freight traffic centred on Saigon. In 1948 the in ternal air traffic in
Saigon, 111,599 passengers an d 5,151 tons of freight, was m uch greater
th an the internation al air traffic, 19,527 passengers and 1,211 tons of
freight.
In B urm a the m ain developm ent in 1948 was the Presidential O rder
d ated 23 M arch (N ationalization of A ir T ran sport O rder, 1948), by
w hich th e U nio n of B urm a Airways C om pany was form ed as the national
air tran sp o rt com pany of the country. Com m ercial aviation started in
B urm a in 1931. O n the eve of the war, four foreign aviation companies
h a d lines connecting R angoon w ith other countries. T h ere was also one
internal line whose service was discontinued.
In Siam no civil aviation returns are yet available for 1948. F or
the eight m onths from F ebruary to Septem ber 1947, the volume of in ternal air traffic reached 3 m illion passenger-kilometres, and 66,500 tonkilometres, as com pared w ith 148,000 passenger-kilometres, and 21,600
ton-kilom etres in 1940.
In H o n g K ong the num ber of passengers carried by commercial
planes rose from 81,815 in 1947 to 181,444 during the first ten m onths of
1948, while the freight and m ail traffic rose from 1,036 to 1,649 tons.
C H A P T E R V II
Labour
In this chapter, to the extent th a t available m aterial perm its, the
volume of em ploym ent an d its relative distribution am ong different occupations are analysed. T h ere follows a description of the sources of labour
supply and of the m ethods of recruitm ent. T h e productivity of labour
in the m ore industrialised countries of the region is th en exam ined. T e c h nical training, as an im p o rtan t m eans to raise productivity, is no t touched
upon, as it has been covered in a recent report on T raining Problems in
the Far East, jointly undertaken by the U n ited N ations Econom ic C om mission for Asia and the F a r E ast an d the In tern atio n al L ab o u r O rg a n isation. Conditions of work, w hich failed to show m uch im provem ent
during the year u n d er review, are described briefly. L ab o u r organisation
an d legislation is surveyed in the final section.
E
m pl o y m e n t
a n d
D
is t r ib u t io n
T h e incom plete, heterogeneous, an d out-of-date ch a rac ter of the
population d ata of m any countries of the region makes it virtually im possible to determ ine accurately the extent of em ploym ent. O nly rough
indications can be given on the basis of available m aterial.
In table 41 an a ttem p t is m ade to indicate the p roportion of the
total population th a t is gainfully employed. Difficulty is a t once e ncountered in defining the term “gainfully em ployed” . T h e extent of such
em ploym ent m ay ap p ear large or small according to w hether it is fulltim e or part-tim e, paid o r u npaid, covers age-groups of 15 o r below,
an d is completely or incom pletely enum erated. F o r exam ple, in the P hilippines, where the proportion of gainfully occupied population reached
52.9 per cent in 19391 and is th e highest in the region, this is due to the
fact th a t females of 10 years old or over in “dom estic a n d personal
1 Yearbook of L a b o u r Statistics, 1945-46, p. 5. T h is is n ex t only to R o m a n ia
(5 8 .4 p e r cen t in 1 9 3 0 ), U .S.S.R . (57.5 p e r c e n t in 1 9 2 6 ), a n d B ulgaria
(56.5 p e r cen t in 193 4).
108
109
LABOUR
T
a b l e
41
Proportion of gainfully occupied population in total population
Country
B u rm a ....................
C eylon ....................
I n d i a ......................
I n d o n e s i a ...............
J a p a n ......................
K o r e a ......................
M a la y a n U n io n . .
P h i l i p p i n e s ............
S i a m .........................
Date of
census
1931
1921
1931
1930
1947
1944
1947
1939
1937
Total population
(thousands)
14,667
4,499
352,838
60,727
78,627
25,120
4,903
16,000
14,464
G a i n f u l l y o ccu p ied p o p u la tio n
Number
( thousands )
Per cent
6,231
2,232
148,817
20,871
34,222
10,271
2,000
8 ,4 6 6 (5 ,3 2 0 )a
6,824
42.5
49.6
42.2
34.4
43.5
40.9
40.8
5 2 .9 (3 3 .2 )a
47.2
S o u rce: B u rm a H a n d b o o k , G o v e rn m e n t of In d ia Press, Simla, 1944, pp. 10, 12.
C eylon Y earbook, 1948, D e p a rtm e n t of Statistics, C olom bo, 1948, p. 36. Yearbook
of L a b o u r Statistics, 1945-46. In te rn a tio n a l L ab o u r Office, M o n treal, 1947, pp. 5,
11, fo r Ja p a n . Statistical P ocketbook of In donesia, 1941, D e p a rtm e n t of Econom ic
Affairs, C e n tra l B u rea u of Statistics, B atavia, pp. 7, 14. Japanese E conom ic
Statistics, D ecem ber, 1948, SC A P, T okyo, p. 98. Jam es Shoem aker, N otes on
K o rea ’s Postw ar E co n o m ic Position, T e n th C onference of th e In s titu te of Pacific
R elations, S ep te m b er, 1947, S ec retaria t P a p e r No. 4, p. 25. A n n u a l R ep o rt o f the
M a la ya n U n io n , 1947, G o v ern m en t Press, K u a la L u m p u r, 1948, p. 6. P. P. Pillai,
L a b o u r in Sou th-east Asia, In d ia n C ouncil of W orld Affairs, 1947, p. 207, for
d a ta on th e Philippines. Statistical Y earbook of T h a ila n d , 1937-38 to 1938-39,
C e n tra l Service of Statistics, B angkok, pp. 46, 57.
a F igures in b rack ets in d ica te th e n u m b e r a n d p ro p o rtio n of gainfully em ployed
p o p ula tions a fte r exclusion of 3,146,000 “ housewives” .
service” constituted alm ost forty p er cent of the total gainfully employed
populatio n.1 Again, in Indonesia, where the proportion of gainfully
em ployed is 34.4 p er cent an d appears to be the lowest in the region,
it refers to “professional workers” , w hich m ay cover a m ore narrowly
defined group th a n in m any o th er countries. In Japan, the scope is more
specific, for the gainfully employed are the “labour force” , th a t is, “all
persons 15 years old or over” by Japanese reckoning (roughly equivalent
to 14 years old or over by the W estern m ethod of counting age) who
have been either “em ployed” or “unem ployed” during the survey week.2
Subject to the above an d other limitations, the d a ta presented in
table 41 suggest th a t about forty p er cent of the total population of the
region m ay be regarded as gainfully employed. O n the basis of a total
1 Pillai, L a b o u r in South-east Asia, In d ia n C ouncil of W orld Affairs, N ew D elhi,
1947,
p. 207. F igures from a n article re p rin te d from th e U .S. M o n th ly L a bour
R e v ie w , A pril, 1945. I n absolute term s, th e to ta l gainfully em ployed p o p u la tio n
in 1939 is 3,478,000 u n d e r “ dom estic a n d personal service” fo r b o th sexes, of
w hom 3,355,000 are fem ales of 10 years an d over, in cluding 3,146,000 “ housewives” .
2 Japanese E co n o m ic Statistics, D ecem ber 1948, p. 98.
110
PA R T II.
T
P R O D U C T IO N
a b l e
42
Occupational distribution of gainfully em ployed population
Agriculture a
B u rm a (1 9 3 1 )
Ceylon (1 9 2 1 ) . . .
In d ia (19 3 1 ) ..........
In d o n e sia (1930)
J a p a n (1 9 4 7 )
K o re a (1944)
M alaya (1931)
Philippines (1939)
Siam (19 3 7 ) ..........
. . 69.5
62.2
. . 67.1
ProfesTrade
sions
and
and
DomesM in - M anufac- Trans- Com- adminis- tic serving
port merce tration
turing
iceb
Other
0.6
0.1
0.2
68.8
52.3
2.0
73.0
2.2
..
..
.. 60.7
.. 68.8
88.6
10.8
12.9
10.0
10.6
21.5
6.8
12.3
0.9
11.3
1.9
0.2
3.6
3.5
1.5
1.5
4.5
1.6
6.3
3.8
0.9
8.9
7.3
5.2
6.2
7.2
4.2
10.7
5.1
5.3
4.5
3.0
2.7
3.3
7.2
2.8
3.2
3.0
1.6
0.7
1.4
11.0
7.3
6.0
9.6
5.3
9.4
6.8
6.2C
1.2
0.9
0.3
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
a Includes forestry, fishery, a n d h u n tin g .
b T h e re is obviously lack of un ifo rm ity in defining th e status of a housew ife
u n d e r “ domestic service” , w h ich seems to a c c o u n t fo r th e g re a t disparity in th e
relative im portance given to this category of o cc u p atio n in censuses of different
countries. F o r lack of original censuses, no a tte m p t is m a d e to rectify th e discrepancies for countries o th e r th a n th e Philippines.
c T h e re were in 1939, 12,508 m ales a n d 3,354,576 fem ales u n d e r dom estic an d
personal service. I f th e n u m b e r of “housewives” , re p o rte d to be 3,145,763, is excluded, th e to tal n u m b e r of fem ales gainfully em ployed in “ dom estic a n d personal
service” will be 208,813. F o r b oth sexes, th e to ta l n u m b e r will th u s be 332,321
instead of 3,478,084.
population of 1,142 m illion in the A F E region, this m eans a labour force
of about 460 million.
As shown in table 42, the em ployed population is to be found largely
in the agricultural group. Even in J a p a n the gainfully occupied p o p u lation in agriculture, including forestry an d fishery, rose from th e p rew ar
(1930) proportion of 481 per cent of total occupied popu latio n to 52 per
cent in 1947, as a result of changes in the econom y arising from m ilitary
defeat an d Allied occupation. E xcluding Jap a n , th e proportion of gainfully occupied population in agriculture cannot be less th a n 60 to 70
p er cent, even allowing for the effects of recent industrialization.
A bout 10 per cent of the total em ployed population in the region
is to be found in m anufacturing (factory an d h an d icraft) industries.
T able 42 shows occupational distribution in individual countries. I t will
be seen th a t Ja p a n h ad the largest proportion of em ployed population
in m an ufacturing industry, while Siam h a d the smallest.
T h e rem aining 20 to 30 p er cent of the total em ployed population
is distributed am ong service industries such as trade, transport, public
adm inistration, free professions an d domestic service.
1 E conom ic S u rv e y o f A sia a n d the Far E a st, 1947, p . 32.
111
LABOUR
L
a b o u r
Su
ppl y
a n d
R
e c r u it m e n t
L ab o u r in countries such as C hina and India, w ith heavy pressure
of popu latio n on the land, is largely indigenous. O nly in newly developed
lands, m ainly in South-east Asia, does alien im m igrant labour, usually
Chinese an d In d ian , an d to a small extent Javanese, play an im portant
role. Such labour is m ainly found in factories, mines and plantations,
an d is engaged in th e production and processing of raw m aterials for
export.
O f the estim ated 8 to 9 million Chinese em igrants residing abroad,
over 90 p e r cent is concentrated in Siam, M alaya, Indonesia, Indo-C hina,
B urm a, th e Philippines, and H o n g Kong. In H ong K ong labour is entirely Chinese. In Bangkok, Siam ’s only industrial centre, labour in
industrial establishm ents of all kinds in 1947 was 66 per cent Chinese
an d 34 p er cent Siamese.1 In Singapore in 1946, 62 p er cent of the wageearners were Chinese, 21 p e r cent In d ian and 17 per cent M alay, Ja v a nese an d others.2 In N o rth Borneo, in establishments employing 20 or
m ore workers, indigenous labour constituted 57 per cent, Chinese 27 per
cent, Javanese 13 p er cent an d others 3 p er cent, in the third q uarter
of 1948.3 I n Indonesia in 1930,4 Chinese im m igrants constituted the largest alien group, form ing 2.03 p er cent of the total population, as comp ared w ith 0.19 p e r cent for o th er Asians, and 0.40 p er cent for E uropeans. I n M anila, the industrial centre of the Philippines, Chinese im m igrants num b ered 70,090 o ut of a total alien population of about 74,000.5
I n In d o -C h in a in 1936, Chinese im m igrants also constituted the largest
alien group representing 1.42 per cent of the total population.6
In the M alayan F ederation, B urm a and Ceylon, In d ian labour is
m ore im p ortant. In the F ederation of M alaya in 1947, 46 per cent of
the labour in estates, mines, factories and governm ent departm ents was
In d ian , 32 p er cent Chinese, 17 per cent M alay, and 5 per cent Javanese
a n d others.7 In B urm a in 1931, 9.4 p er cent of the total employed p o p ulation was In d ian , and 1.5 p er cent Chinese; in certain activities, the
percentage of In d ia n labour was m uch higher, e.g., 16 per cent in in1 E c o n o m ic S u rve y of S ia m , 1947, E C A F E S ecretariat, 1948, p. 42 (ty p e w ritte n ).
2 Sin gapore A n n u a l R e p o r t 1946, G o v ern m en t P rin tin g Office, 1947, p. 41.
3 E c o n o m ic S u rv e y of N o rth Borneo, 1948, p re p a re d fo r E C A F E S ecre ta riat by
the C h ief Secretary, G o v ern m en t of N o rth B orneo, F eb ruary , 1949.
4 Statistical P o cketbook of Ind o n esia , 1941, p. 7.
5 Y earbook of Philippines Statistics, 1946, B ureau of th e Census a n d Statistics,
M an ila, 1947, p. 236.
6 C harles R o b e q u ain , T h e E co n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t o f French In d o c h in a , O xford
U niversity Press, 1944, p. 34.
7 A n n u a l R e p o r t of the L a b o u r D e p a rtm e n t for the Y ear 1947, G o vernm en t
Press, K u a la L u m p u r, 1948, p. 48.
112
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
dustry, 37 p er cent in m ining, a n d 45 p er cent in tran sp o rt.1 In Ceylon,
Indians constituted 86 p er cent of the labour on tea an d ru b b er estates
in 1938, and 78 p er cent in 1946.2 I t has been estim ated th at, of a total
population of 732,258 on all plantations (tea, rubber an d coconut) in
Ceylon, 90 p er cent were Indians.3
T h e m ovem ent of labourers from those parts of In d ia w here there
are too m any workers for current em ploym ent opportunities to Ceylon,
M alaya and B urm a (where agricultural, m ining a n d transport developm ent called for m ore labour th an could be secured in those countries)
constituted a valuable form of international co-operation. U n fo rtu n ately
disputes arose between the G overnm ent of In d ia a n d the o th er G overnm ents about the treatm en t of In d ia n workers, especially abo ut th eir rights
to settle and acquire citizenship, w ith the result th at, before a n d d u ring
the war, restrictions were placed on the em igration of unskilled In d ia n
labourers to Ceylon an d Burm a. A lthough, after a time, th e m ovem ent
of labourers betw een In d ia an d Ceylon was renewed, it seems probable
th a t the new D om inion of Ceylon will strictly regulate im m igration, subject to such agreem ents as m ay be negotiated w ith In d ia. N egotiations
between In d ia and B urm a were resumed after the w ar, b u t the disturbances in B urm a as well as the new econom ic policies of in dependent
B urm a will probably prevent the im m igration of In d ia n labour on anyth in g like the old scale. M any thousands of In d ian labourers in M alaya
died during the Japanese occupation, an d m any m ore were re p atriated
after the w ar w ith the result th a t there has been a shortage of labour.
T h e prew ar flow of unassisted im m igrants has n o t been restored; an d
until the disturbances cease, In d ia n labourers m ay be d eterred from
going to M alaya by the apprehension of danger.
In Ceylon a large proportion of the In d ia n im m igrants has settled
perm anently. In the F ederation of M alaya an d B urm a th e In d ia n im m igrants are predom inantly transients w ho work fo r a period a n d re tu rn
to In d ia w ith their savings. T h e tendency in all three countries seems
to be towards m aking it m ore difficult for Indians to acquire rights of
p erm an en t residence. B ut the shortage of indigenous labour fo r p la n ta tions, mines and large scale agricultural developm ent m ay lead the
Governm ents to encourage a greater m ovem ent of In d ia n labour for
tem porary em ploym ent.
In C hina, India, an d also Jap an , industrial labour supply is p rim arily derived from overcrowded villages. These workers, however, are
1 B u rm a H a n d b o o k , 1944, p. 12.
2 Ceylon Yearbook, 1948, p. 12.
3 G. R . M o th a , “ In d ia n L a b o u r in Ceylon” , in Asian L a b o u r Q uarterly, N ew
D elhi, O cto b er, 1948.
LABOUR
113
n o t com pletely divorced from th eir original preoccupation with agricultu re ; as a result, the relation between industrial an d agricultural em ploym ent is close. I t is n ot uncom m on, even in In d ia and C hina, for
fa rm workers to m igrate to mines and factories during the slack agricultu ra l season. In th e B okara qu arry in India, for exam ple, it is estim ated
th a t 50 p e r cent of the workers spend half the year in the colliery, and
du rin g th e o th er half, are engaged in agriculture in th eir native districts.
T hese workers are relieved by m en from their own villages who likewise
w ork in the colliery a n d in agriculture alternately each six m onths. A no th er 25 p er cent of th e lab ou r force is recruited by the contractor from
local ag ricultu ral labourers w ho work in th e colliery w hen there is no
cultivation o r harvesting. T h ey atten d irregularly throughout the year.
T h e rem aining 25 p er cent m ay be regarded as floating.1
T his close relationship betw een industrial and agricultural employm en t necessarily results in a great deal of absenteeism and high turnover
of labour. In In d ia the proportion of absenteeism is estim ated to average
10 to 15 p er cent in factories, an d 25 to 30 p er cent in mines and p lan tations.2 In a survey of 22,521 coal-m iners in Jh a ria collieries, it was found
th a t 56 p e r cent w ere perm anently settled while 44 p er cent were m igratory labo u r.3
Because of the seasonal an d m igratory character of industrial labour
supply a n d the consequent high proportion of abstenteeism an d turnover,
it has been a com m on practice in countries of the region, w hether using
local o r im m ig ran t labour, to hire contractors whose function is to recru it labourers from over-populated villages or from other countries h av ing surplus labo u r available for em igration to less-crowded areas. These
contractors usually keep on h an d a large labour force of w hich a p art
is unem ployed u n til required for service. C hronic under-em ploym ent
u n d e r this system can only be rectified w hen the need for it is removed
by b etter m ethods of recruitm ent an d by the absorption of surplus population th ro u g h industrialisation.
Since the w ar, a start has been m ade in the direction of better
m ethods of lab o u r recru itm ent an d em ploym ent. A m ong these is th e establishm ent of labour exchanges on the p a rt of governm ent an d business. I n C hina, labour exchanges increased from 498 in D ecem ber 1947
to 710 in Ju n e 1948 of w hich about 40 p er cent were established by the
G overnm ent. C om plete returns from seven exchanges for 1947 show th a t
as against 53,225 applications for jobs, there were 11,505 offers and
1 R e p o rt on
R . M u k erjee,
p. 26.
2 I n d ia a n d
3 M u k erjee,
th e B ihar E n q u iry C o m m itte e , V ol. I l l , P a rt B, p. 202. Q u o te d in
In d ia n W o rkin g Class, Second edition, H in d K ita bs, Bom bay, 1948,
P akistan Y earbook, 1948, p. 398.
In d ia n W o rkin g Class, p. 26.
114
PA R T II.
P R O D U C T IO N
7,763 placem ents.1 These data, although lim ited, are significant in showing th at, while applications exceeded offers by alm ost fo u r times, placem ents were only two-thirds of the offers m ade. T h ere is evidently need
for a greater num ber of em ploym ent exchanges as well as for m ore am ple
facilities for training unskilled workers seeking trained positions.
In In d ia and Pakistan the exchange of population a t the tim e of
partition has created a serious problem of redistribution in em ploym ent.
T h e m igration of nearly five million people from Pakistan into India,
“p u t the em ploym ent resources of In d ia to a considerable strain, and
greatly shook the economy of the new -born D om inion.” 2
Similarly, in Pakistan, w ith reference to partial unem ploym ent
am ongst agricultural workers, “the position has been greatly accentuated
on account of the exchange of population w hich has resulted in a net
increase of about two million persons in western Pakistan” .3
In India, of 80,253 persons registered a t the governm ent em ploym ent exchanges in Septem ber 1948 only one-third were placed.4 In
Pakistan, registrations reached 102,098 a t the end of 1947, of which
only one-third were successfully placed.5
L
a b o u r
Pr
o d u c t iv it y
D a ta on labour productivity in countries of the region are still in a
rudim entary stage, referring usually only to individual establishm ents over
a limited period of time. A part from C hina, In d ia an d Ja p a n , w here
industrialisation has proceeded fu rth e r th a n in o th er countries of the
region, over-all productivity d a ta for a period of years are often entirely
lacking.
In U ndivided India, the index of labour productivity p er w orker
declined by 31 per cent between 1939/40 an d 1946/47 an d rem ained
unchanged in 1947/48.6 C om puted on a m an -h o u r basis, th e decline
was by only 23 p er cent in 1946/47 an d 22 p er cent in 1947/48. This
difference, according to the basis of com putation, is attributable to labour
disputes, absenteeism, and the post-w ar reduction in w orking hours.
1 Statistics on Social A ffairs, M in istry of Social Affairs, N a n k in g , F eb ru ary ,
1948 (in C h in e se ). T h ese are exchanges reg istered w ith th e M in istry of Social
Affairs only.
2 P ap e r supplied to E C A F E S e c retaria t by th e I n d ia n M in istry of L a b o u r, J a n u ary, 1949.
3 S u rvey of Pakistan, 1947-48, p re p a re d by th e G o v ern m e n t of P ak istan for
E C A F E S ecretariat, Septem ber, 1948, p. 445.
4In d ia n L abo ur G azette, D ecem ber, 1948, p. 445.
5 S u rvey of Pakistan, 1947-48, p. 57.
6 Eastern E conom ist, A n n u a l N u m b e r of In d ia 1948, N ew D elhi, 31 D ecem ber,
1948.
LABOUR
115
In reg ard to C hina, there has been a rise in labour productivity in
T aiw an industries since 1947, altho in other parts of the country there
seems to have been a decline. F or five of the six industries in T aiw an
operated by the N ational Resources Commission, the leading state en terprise in C hina, there were increases in labour productivity in April,
1948 as com pared w ith July, 1947, namely, 11 p er cent for fertilizers,
15 p er cent for gold a n d copper m ining, 31 per cent for cam phor, 43
per cent for cem ent, a n d 146 p er cent for petroleum , b ut a decrease of
8 p er cent fo r p a p e r.1
In J a p a n productivity figures are available for the coal-mines since
1930. T hese show a steady decline in productivity from 1934 to the end
of th e w ar, a rap id rise in 1946 an d some fu rth e r recovery in 1947 and
1948. By N ovem ber 1948, however, productivity in coal-mines was still
only 38 p er cent of the 1937 level. O u tp u t of underground workers
(72 to 74 p e r cent of to tal employees in 1930-40, and 52 to 56 per cent
in 1946-48) was 49 p er cent of the 1937 level.
D u rin g the w ar period (1937-45), the per capita labour productivity
index in Japanese coal m ines declined from 100 to 27.8, due chiefly to
em ploym ent of m arginal workers, rap id capital depreciation, short supply of replacem ent equipm ent, working of inferior seams, and the strain
of w ar on efficiency. T h e recovery since the war, from 27.8 in 1945 to 32.0
in 1946, 33.1 in 1947, an d 37.9 in N ovem ber 1948, is largely attributable
to the fa ct th a t since coal constitutes an essential item in the Japanese
industrial econom y an d can no longer be im ported from abroad, top
priority was given to the production of coal-m ining m achinery to replace w orn-out equipm ent.
O n the basis of th e lim ited d ata presented above, it w ould seem
th a t recovery of productivity has been slower in this region th an in
E urope.2 P roductivity in Asia, as pointed o ut in chapter I, is low,
prim arily because the ratio of labour to capital is high. Before the war,
capital intensity in m ost countries of the region was m uch lower th an in
E urope, because of industrial under-developm ent. M oreover, the limited
capital equipm ent of the region h ad to sustain the strain of w ar for a
longer period th a n th a t in E urope— in C h in a and Ja p a n for over eight
years. Since the w ar, it has been m ore difficult for Asian th an for E uro p ean countries to obtain new capital equipm ent an d spare parts, while the
spread of civil disturbance in a num ber of countries has caused fu rther
depreciation an d loss to existing equipm ent. In newly independent coun1 M o n t h ly R e p o rts on S tate Industries and M ines, Ju ly 1947 a n d Jan u ary -A p ril
1948.
( I n C hinese.)
2 W orld E c o n o m ic R e p o rt, 1945-47, D e p a rtm e n t of E conom ic Affairs, L ake
Success, 1948, p. 212.
116
PA RT II.
P R O D U C T IO N
tries in the region, technical an d adm inistrative personnel was found in adequate after the departure of E uropean staff. T h e rep atriatio n of
Japanese technical and adm inistrative staff from certain liberated areas
h ad a sim ilar effect. In South-east Asia, where im m igrant labour, often
m ore adaptable th an indigenous labour to industrial production, has
encountered new restrictions, production has often suffered a decline in
consequence. Again, labour difficulties seem to have increased since the
war, owing to the failure of wages to catch u p w ith the cost of living.
F or example, in India, strikes an d go-slow policies w ere responsible for
6 to 8 p er cent of the reduction in total textile o u tp u t.1 Finally, labour
in Asia and the F a r East, although m ore num erous th a n in Europe, is
generally less productive owing to lack of training in industrial technique
and discipline, poor conditions of work, an d high turnover, all of w hich
have been accentuated since the war.
C
o n d it io n s
o f
W
o r k
Conditions of work in the region are generally inferior to those in
the m ore industrialised parts of the world. T his is prim arily due to overpopulation, accom panied by widespread under-em ploym ent an d unem ployment. As will be seen later in this chapter, labour organization has
advanced in recent years, b u t on account of the prevalence of illiteracy,
lack of training and skill, an d diversity of language, race, religion, an d
culture am ong the rank and file of labour, its strength for collective b a rgaining is still limited. Despite the efforts of the In tern atio n al L abour
O rganisation and of some Governm ents in the region to prom ote m inim um standards of wages, hours, safety and o th er conditions of work,
m echanism of enforcem ent has been found lacking o r ineffective, a n d im provem ent has been haphazard.
R eal wages, as an index of working conditions, nevertheless showed
some im provem ent in 1948 as com pared w ith 1947, although on the
whole they were still below prew ar levels. In C hina, there was an increase
in real wages for industrial labour in four of the seven cities during the
first half of 1948, as com pared w ith 1947. In Shanghai, for exam ple,
real wages (1937 = 100) rose from 133 to 148, in T ientsin from 151 to
159, in N anking from 113 to 126, and in C anton from 61 to 98. O n the
other hand, the index fell from 61 to 47 in Tsingtao, from 128 to 106 in
Chungking, and from 88 to 84 in H ankow .2
R eal wages in In d ia and Pakistan, adjusted by all-India cost-ofliving indices, have shown signs of im provem ent since the w ar, although
1S tu d y on Textiles, by th e E C A F E In d u stria l D evelopm ent W orking P arty , in
E C A F E D ocum ent E /C N . 11/131 A nnex E , p. 19, N ovem ber, 1948.
2 C om puted for th e indices published by th e D e p a rtm e n t of Statistics, M inistry
of Social Affairs, N anking.
LABOUR
117
still below prew ar. T h e index (1 9 3 8 /9 = 100) rose from 82 in 1944/45
a n d 1945/46 to 83 in 1946/47 a n d 87 in 1947/48.1
In th e M alayan F ederation an d Singapore, while m oney wages
in 1948 w ere 200 to 300 p e r cent above prew ar, th e cost of living was
300 to 400 p e r cen t higher. R eal wages, therefore, suffered a decline of
ab o u t 25 p e r cent.2
In th e Philippines, real wages, while recovering th eir pre-w ar (1941)
level in 1947, declined again afte r August 1948 owing to a rapid increase
in th e cost of living caused by a sharp rise in the price of rice. T his
decline was a m ain cause of labour disputes.3
In Indonesia it w ould ap p e ar th a t unskilled labour is currently paid
3 to 7 times the 1938 level, while the general price index is 6 times as
high.4
In J a p a n the real wage index (A ugust 1946-M arch 1 9 4 7 = 1 0 0 ),
rose from 121 in 1947 to 155 during the first eight m onths of 1948.5 I t
is probable th a t real wages in J a p a n during 1948 were still below the
prew ar level.
T h e decline in real wages in m any countries of the region has m eant
a fu rth e r deterioration in th e stand ard of living. T his has been a m ajor
factor in th e increase in labour unrest since the war. I n In d ia the rising
cost of living is regarded as the m ain cause of postw ar industrial u n rest. L ab o u r disputes rose in num ber from 820 in 1945 to 1,629 in 1946,
an d 1,811 in 1947, although in 1948 (first 10 m onths) they decreased
to 1,393. T h e im provem ent in 1948 m ay be attrib u ted to the passing of
the In d u strial D isputes A ct of 1947, providing for conciliation, arb itration a n d ad ju d icatio n of disputes, an d of the Ind u strial T ru ce Resolution a t the In d ia n In d u strial C onference in Decem ber, 1947 w hich called
upon lab o u r a n d m anagem ent to avoid strikes, lockouts an d slowdowns.
In Pakistan 47 of th e 81 disputes recorded between August, 1947 and
D ecem ber, 1948 w ere in regard to wages. I n C hina, returns from
S hanghai showed a n increase in labour disputes from 1,716 in 1946
to 1,969 in 1947, a n d 1,339 d u rin g the first seven m onths of 1948, of
w hich one of the prim ary causal factors was wages. I n H ong K ong it is
officially recognized th a t fu rth e r adjustm ent in wage rates of various
grades of skilled labour is necessary to the solution of labour difficulties.
1E astern E conom ist, A n n u a l N u m b er, D ec. 31, 1948.
2 S. S. A w bery a n d F . W . D ailey, La b o u r a n d T ra d e U n io n O rganization in the
F ederation o f M a la ya a n d Singapore, G o v ern m en t Press, K u a la L u m p u r, 1948,
p. 5.
3 L eo n M a G onzales, T h e P hilippine E conom ic Picture. B u reau of C ensus an d
Statistics, M a n ila , 1948, p. 80.
4 S u p p le m e n t on Indonesia, 1948, by th e D e p a rtm e n t of E conom ic Affairs,
B atavia, F e b ru ary , 1949.
5 Japanese E co n o m ic Statistics, O c to b er, 1948.
118
PA R T II.
L
a b o u r
O
P R O D U C T IO N
r g a n iz a t io n
a n d
L
e g is l a t io n
As was pointed out in the last Survey, labour organization has been
growing throughout Asia and the F a r East. This trend continued in 1 9 4 8 .
Organized labour in the region, however, is still confined m ainly to
industries operated on a relatively large scale, for exam ple, mines, factories, dockyards, railways, public utilities, and plantations. A uthentic
statistics on the size of union m em bership in the region are not available, but various returns and estimates, official and unofficial, sum m arized in table 4 3 , p u t the the total in 1 9 4 7 and 1 9 4 8 at about 1 4
million.
T
a b l e
43
Grade Union M embership in A F E Countries, 1947/48
(in thousands)
C h i n a .......................... 5,004
H ong K on g ...............
31
J a p a n .......................... 5,927
84
S outh K o r e a ............
In d ia .......................... 1,609
P a k i s t a n .....................
79
169
C e y l o n ........................
B u rm a ........................
41
I n d o n e s ia n R e p u b lic
488
195
M alaya .....................
Philippines ...............
33
Siam ..........................
100
(Ju n e ,
(
(O ct.,
(D ec.,
(
(D ec.,
(D ec.,
(Feb.,
(
(D ec.,
(Feb.,
(
1948)
1947)
1947)
1947)
1946)
1947)
1947)
1948)
1947)
1947)
1947)
1947)
T o t a l
............
11,046
1,857
857
13,760
Source: Econom ic S u rvey of Asia and the Far East, 1947, pp. 161f f ; Asian
Labour (Q u a rte rly ), O ctober, 1948; A n n u a l R eports for 1947 from the F e d e ration of M alaya and th e Colony of Singapore; M o n th ly issued by U S A M G IK on
South K orean In te rim G overnm ent Activities, Feb. 1948; In d ia n L a bou r Gazette,
July, 1948, p. 3; a n d d a ta supplied by the C h in a Office of IL O in Shanghai.
T hroughout the region, there has been a keener appreciation of the
value of labour legislation in preventing or reducing industrial unrest.
Governm ents have adopted a m ore positive stand to protect the interests
of labour, to encourage collective bargaining and to avoid industrial u n rest. T he M alayan U nion, Singapore and H ong K ong passed a series
of Bills on trade unions and trade disputes in 1 9 4 6 and 1 9 4 7 . Indochina
has also recognized the w orker’s right to association an d the principle
of collective bargaining. A decree of 2 4 July, 1 9 4 7 , laying down the
rules according to w hich the new labour an d social security code of
Indochina was to be established, recognized the principle of the com -
LABOUR
119
m unity’s m aterial obligations towards the working m an and his family.
It gives a new definition of the m inim um wage, varying w ith the cost
of living, recognizes the right to association and collective bargaining,
an d provides for the institution of labour councils, as well as conciliation
an d arbitration of disputes. Social security features, such as m aternity
benefits, old age pensions, etc., are also provided for.1
In 1947 th e R epublic of Indonesia placed two enactm ents on the
R epublican S tatute Book, the L abour Act and the A ccident Act. T he
L ab our Act, generally covering all wage-earners, provides for an 8-hour
day an d a 40-hour week, holidays w ith pay, and three-m onths m aternity
leave w ith pay. T h e A ccident Act, covering industrial, plantation, forestry an d fishery workers, holds the State responsible for the paym ent of
com pensation for accidents should the employer fail to make com pensation. Since M ay Day, 1948, the em ploym ent of women workers u n d erground has been banned.2
B urm a am ended the Factories Act in D ecem ber 1947, reducing the
m axim um permissible hours of work from 54 to 44 per week, and raising the m inim um w orking age from 12 to 13. I t also form ulated in 1948
a seven-point labour policy aim ing to prom ote employer-employee h a rmony, fair wages, arbitration of disputes, full employment, industrial
education, vocational guidance, and social insurance.3
In C hin a the C onstitution of 5 M ay, 1948 contains four articles
(arts. 152 to 155) providing for adequate opportunity of employment,
protective legislation particularly for child and wom an labour, m ediation
and arbitratio n of disputes, an d social insurance.
T h e G overnm ent of In d ia has prom ulgated the M inim um Wages
Act, effective 15 M arch, 1948 to protect “sweated” labour, and is in vestigating the system of “forced” labour, still found in a few districts,
with a view to progressive reduction and eventual abolition.
Progress in labour legislation, although encouraging, is held back by
difficulties in providing effective m achinery for enforcement. Official
reports from C hina indicated th a t 76 per cent of the factories investigated
in 1947 did not, in one way or another, conform to the Factory Law. In
South K orea the U n ited States M ilitary G overnm ent com plained th a t
the newly enacted Child L abour Law of 1947 had not been generally
observed, as also the m axim um h o u r legislation. Employers who violated
the law were, it is stated, ignorant of the law.4 In Ceylon, the medical
service in the plantations is inadequate to im plem ent the provisions of the
1 E co nom ic S u rv e y of In d o c h in a , 1947, c h a p te r V I.
2 A sian L a b o u r, O ctober, 1948.
3 I L O L e g i s l a t i v e S e r i e s S u p p l e m e n t , 1948, No. 1 Geneva.
4 U S A M G I K M o n th ly B ulletin, J u n e 1948, pp. 87-93.
120
PA RT II.
P R O D U C T IO N
M edical W ants O rdinance. In the M alayan F ederation an d Singapore,
despite the Wages Councils O rdinance of 1947 and the Jo in t Wages
Commission, it has been semi-officially pointed out th a t “there is m inim um wage m achinery b u t no m inim um wage has been established” .1
Ineffectiveness of the enforcem ent of labour legislation arises from
a num ber of factors, b u t principally there is a lack of realism in restricting the scope of the legislation as well as a failure to provide adequate
m achinery and staff for enforcem ent. In addition, the over all economic
and social position of the region m ilitates against rapid im provem ent in
working conditions.
1 A w bery a n d D ailey, op. cit., p. 16.