Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Discrete Days, St. Michael’s College, 2011
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Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Discrete Days, St. Michael’s College, 2011
Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Discrete Days, St. Michael’s College, 2011 Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Peter Dodds Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk Department of Mathematics & Statistics Center for Complex Systems Vermont Advanced Computing Center University of Vermont References 1 of 83 Outline Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 2 of 83 Definitions A meaningful definition of a Complex System: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence I Distributed possibly networked system of many interrelated parts with no centralized control exhibiting emergent behavior—‘More is Different’ [2] A few optional features: Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk I Nonlinear relationships I Presence of feedback loops I Being open or driven I Presence of memory I Modular (nested)/multiscale structure I Opaque boundaries References 4 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Examples of Complex Systems: Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking I human societies I animal societies I cells I disease ecologies I organisms I brains I power systems I social insects The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage I weather systems I geophysical systems I ecosystems I the world wide web I Mechanical Turk References i.e., everything that’s interesting... 5 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Relevant fields: I Physics I Economics Introduction Emergence I Cognitive Sciences I Biology I Ecology I Sociology I I Psychology I Information Sciences I Geociences I Geography I I Medical Sciences Systems Engineering Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage I I Computer Science Mechanical Turk References ... i.e., everything that’s interesting... 6 of 83 Complexity Manifesto: 1. Systems are ubiquitous and systems matter. 2. Consequently, much of science is about understanding how pieces dynamically fit together. 3. 1700 to 2000 = Golden Age of Reductionism. I Atoms!, sub-atomic particles, DNA, genes, people, ... 4. Understanding and creating systems (including new ‘atoms’) is the greater part of science and engineering. 5. Universality: systems with quantitatively different micro details exhibit qualitatively similar macro behavior. 6. Computing advances make the Science of Complexity possible: 6.1 We can measure and record enormous amounts of data, research areas continue to transition from data scarce to data rich. 6.2 We can simulate, model, and create complex systems in extraordinary detail. Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 7 of 83 Data, Data, Everywhere—the Economist, Feb 25, 2010 () Big Data Science: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction I 2013: year traffic on Internet estimate to reach 2/3 Zettabytes (1ZB = 103 EB = 106 PB = 109 TB) Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage I I Exponential growth: ∼ 60% per year. Large Hadron Collider: 40 TB/second. I 2016—Large Synoptic Survey Telescope: 140 TB every 5 days. I Facebook: ∼ 100 billion photos I Twitter: ∼ 5 billion tweets Mechanical Turk References 8 of 83 No really, that’s a lot of data Frequency Frequency they were first invented (1800–1840, 1840–1880, and 1880–1920) (7). We tracked the frequency of each invention in the nth year after it was invented as compared to its maximum value and plotted the median of these rescaled trajectories for each cohort. The inventions from the earliest cohort (1800–1840) took over 66 years from invention contrast, “1973” declined to half its peak by x10-5 1983, a lag of only 10 years. We are forgetting our past faster with each passing year (Fig. 3A). 5 We were curious whether our increasing tendency to forget the old was accompanied by 0more rapid assimilation of the new (21). We divided a list of 147 inventions into time-resolved cohorts based on the 40-year interval in which Frequency (log) RESEARCH ARTICLE Big Data—Culturomics: F ian frequency Frequency (log) E (gray lines; median, thick dark gray line). Five examples are highlighted. 1871 Half life : 73 yrs yrs phase (73 years, red line). Inset: The doubling time and half-life over time. (F) The median trajectory of the 25 most famous personalities born between 1800 and 1920 in various careers. e: 4 x10-5 Frequency g ti me :4 yrs : 73 yrs 5 0 F 3. Cultural turnover is accelerating. (A) We forget: frequency of “1883” Fig. D “1910” (green), and “1950” (red). Inset: We forget faster. The half-life (blue), of the curves (gray dots) is getting shorter (gray line: moving average). (B) Cultural adoption is quicker. Median trajectory for three cohorts of inventions from three different time periods (1800–1840, blue; 1840–1880, green; 1880–1920, red). Inset: The telephone (green; date of invention, green arrow) and radio (blue; date of invention, blue arrow). (C) Fame of various personalities born between 1920 and 1930. (D) Frequency of the 50 most famous people born in (E) The median trajectory of the 1865 cohort is characterized by four http://www.culturomics.org/ () 14 JANUARY 2011 VOL 331 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org parameters: (i) initial age of celebrity (34 years old, tick mark); (ii) doubling time of the subsequent rise to fame (4 years, blue line); (iii) age of peak celebrity Google ngram viewer (70 years after birth,Books tick mark), and (iv) half-life of the post-peak forgetting () tim Half life www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction F Emergence Universality Median frequency Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 14, 2011 Year of invention blin E B D Dou Frequency 天安 Frequency Median frequency Frequency Frequency (log) “Quantitative analysis of culture using millions of digitized books” by Michel et al., Science, 2011 [11] frequency (log) 1883” alf-life ultural m three –1920, radio s born born in Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 14 Median frequency Frequency Frequency Median frequency (log) Frequency (% of peak value) Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 14, 2011 Median frequency (% of peak value) rc Chagall” in German (red) ared to English (blue). (B) ion of Leon Trotsky (blue), Zinoviev (green), and Lev enter a regime marked by slower forgetting: v (red) in Russian texts, Collective memory has both a short-term and a eworthy events indicated: long-term component. assassination (blue arrow), But executed there have been changes. The amplitude and Kamenev of the Purge plots is(red rising every year: Precise dates are ow), the Great increasingly There is also a greater fo), and perestroika (graycommon. artheTiananpresent. For instance, “1880” declined The 1976 cus and on 1989 to halfboth its peak value in 1912, a lag of 32 years. In uare incidents led to discussion in English texts own on the right). Response 989 incident largely abA is scale hinese texts (blue, shown C D ft), suggesting government ip. (D) While the Hollyen were blacklisted (red t) from U.S. movie studios, me declined (median: thick ). None of them were creda film until 1960’s (aptly Exodus. (E) Artists and writrious disciplines were supby the Nazi regime (red ). In contrast, the Nazis themhick red line) exhibited a ame peak during the war ) Distribution of suppresces for both English (blue) man (red) forFthe period from E 945. ThreeC victims of Nazi ion are highlighted at left ows). Inset: Calculation of pression index for “Henri . Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk 1871 (gray lines; median, thick dark gray line). Five ex References (E) The median trajectory of the 1865 cohort is parameters: (i) initial age of celebrity (34 years old, time of the subsequent rise to fame (4 years, blue line); (70 years after birth, tick mark), and (iv) half-life of t phase (73 years, red line). Inset: The doubling time (F) The median trajectory of the 25 most famous per 1800 and 1920 in various careers. VOL 331 14 JANUARY 2011 10 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Homo narrativus: Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks I I Mechanisms = Evolution equations, algorithms, stories, ... Rollover zing: “Also, all financial analysis. And, more directly, D&D.” Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References http://xkcd.com/904/ () 11 of 83 Basic Science ' Describe + Explain: Lord Kelvin (possibly): Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality I “To measure is to know.” Symmetry Breaking I “If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it.” Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks The Big Theory Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Bonus: I “X-rays will prove to be a hoax.” I “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now, All that remains is more and more precise measurement.” Mechanical Turk References 12 of 83 Emergence: Tornadoes, financial collapses, human emotion aren’t found in water molecules, dollar bills, or carbon atoms. Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Examples: Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory I Fundamental particles → Life, the Universe, and Everything I Genes → Organisms I Brains → Thoughts I People → The Web I People → Religion I People → Language, and rules in language (e.g., -ed, -s). I ? → time; ? → gravity; ? → reality. Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References “The whole is more than the sum of its parts” –Aristotle 14 of 83 Toast + Capers + Almonds = Something Different: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 15 of 83 Emergence—Mechanism Thomas Schelling () (Economist/Nobelist): Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness I “Micromotives and Macrobehavior” [14] I I I Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Segregation Wearing hockey helmets Seating choices [youtube] () 16 of 83 Reductionism I Complex Systems enthusiasts often decry reductionist approaches . . . I But reductionism seems to be misunderstood. I Reductionist techniques can explain weak emergence (e.g., phase transitions). I ‘A Miracle Occurs’ explains strong emergence. I But: maybe miracle should be interpreted as an inscrutable yet real mechanism that cannot be simply described. Gulp. I Listen to Steve Strogatz and Hod Lipson (Cornell) in the last piece on Radiolab’s show ‘Limits’ (51:40): http://blogs.wnyc.org/radiolab/2010/04/ 05/limits/ Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 17 of 83 The emergence of taste: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction I Molecules → Ingredients → Taste/Nutrition/Health I See Michael Pollan’s article on nutritionism () in the New York Times, January 28, 2007. Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References nytimes.com I See also: bumblebees. 18 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Limits to what is possible: Universality (): Complexity Introduction I I The property that the macroscopic aspects of a system do not depend sensitively on the system’s details. Key figure: Leo Kadanoff (). Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk Examples: I References The Central Limit Theorem: P(x; µ, σ)dx = √ 1 2πσ e−(x−µ) 2 /2σ 2 dx . I Nature of phase transitions in statistical mechanics. I Navier Stokes equation for fluids. 20 of 83 Fluids mechanics Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction I I I I Fluid mechanics = One of the great successes of understanding complex systems. Navier-Stokes equations: micro-macro system evolution. The big three: Experiment + Theory + Simulations. Works for many very different ‘fluids’: I I I I I I the atmosphere, oceans, blood, galaxies, the earth’s mantle... and ball bearings on lattices...? Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 21 of 83 Lattice gas models Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Collision rules in 2-d on a hexagonal lattice: Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References I I I Lattice matters... Only hexagonal lattice works in 2-d. No ‘good’ lattice in 3-d. Upshot: play with ‘particles’ of a system to obtain new or specific macro behaviours. 22 of 83 Hexagons—Honeycomb: () Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References I I Orchestrated? Or an accident of bees working hard? See “On Growth and Form” by D’Arcy Wentworth Thompson (). [16, 17] 23 of 83 Hexagons—Giant’s Causeway: () Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References http://newdesktopwallpapers.info 24 of 83 Hexagons—Giant’s Causeway: () Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/ 25 of 83 Hexagons run amok: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell I I Graphene (): single layer of carbon molecules in a perfect hexagonal lattice (super strong). Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Chicken wire () . . . 26 of 83 Whimsical but great example of real science: “How Cats Lap: Water Uptake by Felis catus” () Reis et al., Science, 2010. Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Amusing interview here () 27 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Symmetry Breaking Philip Anderson ()—“More is Different,” Science, 1972 [2] Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks I I Argues against idea that the only real scientists are those working on the fundamental laws. Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Symmetry breaking → different laws/rules at different scales... (2006 study → “most creative physicist in the world” ()) 29 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Symmetry Breaking “Elementary entities of science X obey the laws of science Y” Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory I X I Y I solid state or many-body physics I elementary particle physics I chemistry I solid state many-body physics Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage I molecular biology I chemistry I cell biology I molecular biology Mechanical Turk References .. . vdots I psychology I social sciences I physiology I psychology 30 of 83 Symmetry Breaking Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Anderson: [the more we know about] “fundamental laws, the less relevance they seem to have to the very real problems of the rest of science.” Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk Scale and complexity thwart the constructionist hypothesis. References Accidents of history and path dependence () matter. 31 of 83 More is different: http://xkcd.com/435/ () Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness A real science of complexity: Complexity A real theory of everything anything: Introduction Emergence Universality 1. Is not just about the ridiculously small stuff... 2. It’s about the increase of complexity Symmetry breaking/ Accidents of history Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness vs. Universality Tweetage Mechanical Turk References I Second law of thermodynamics: we’re toast in the long run. I So how likely is the local complexification of structure we enjoy? I How likely are the Big Transitions? 34 of 83 Complexification—the Big Transitions: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking I Big Bang. I Big Word. I Big Randomness. I Big Story. I Big Number. I Big Replicate. I Big Life. I Big God. I Big Evolve. I Big Make. I Big Science. I Big Data. I Big Information. I Big Algorithm. I Big Connection. I Big Social. I Big Awareness. The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 35 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 36 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Ancestry: Complexity Introduction From Keith Briggs’s excellent etymological investigation: () Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk I Opus reticulatum: I A Latin origin? References [http://serialconsign.com/2007/11/we-put-net-network] 38 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Key Observation: I I I I I Many complex systems can be viewed as complex networks of physical or abstract interactions. Opens door to mathematical and numerical analysis. Dominant approach of last decade of a theoretical-physics/stat-mechish/combinatorics flavor. Mindboggling amount of work published on complex networks since 1998... ... largely due to your typical theoretical physicist: I Piranha physicus I Hunt in packs. I Feast on new and interesting ideas (see chaos, cellular automata, ...) Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 39 of 83 More observations I But surely networks aren’t new... I Graph theory is well established... Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity I Study of social networks started in the 1930’s... I So why all this ‘new’ research on networks? I Answer (to repeat): Oodles of Easily Accessible Data. Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage I We can now inform (alas) our theories with a much more measurable reality.∗ I Crucial observation: Real networks occupy a tiny, low entropy part of all network space and require specific attention. I A central goal: establish mechanistic explanations. I What kinds of dynamics lead to these real networks? ∗ Mechanical Turk References If this is upsetting, maybe string theory is for you... 40 of 83 Popularity (according to ISI) “Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks” [20] Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality I Watts and Strogatz Nature, 1998 Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell I ≈ 4677 citations (as of January 18, 2011) I Over 1100 citations in 2008 alone. Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk “Emergence of scaling in random networks” [3] I Barabási and Albert Science, 1999 I ≈ 5270 citations (as of January 18, 2011) I Over 1100 citations in 2008 alone. References 41 of 83 Models Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality 1. generalized random networks: Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks I Arbitrary degree distribution Pk . I Wire nodes together randomly. I Create ensemble to test deviations from randomness. Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage I Mechanical Turk References Interesting, applicable, rich mathematically, very important. 42 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Models 2. ‘scale-free networks’: Complexity I I Generative, mechanistic model Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Ancestory: Herbert Simon’s model for Zipf’s law [15] Measuring Happiness I Preferential attachment model with growth: References I P[attachment to node i] ∝ kαi . I Produces Pk ∼ k −γ when α = 1. I Trickiness: other models generate skewed degree distributions. I γ = 2.5 hk i = 1.8 N = 150 Introduced by Barabasi and Albert [3] Tweetage Mechanical Turk 43 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Models Complexity 3. small-world networks Introduction Emergence I Introduced by Watts and Strogatz [20] Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Two scales: I local regularity (an individual’s friends know each other) Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk I global randomness (shortcuts). I Shortcuts allow disease to jump I Number of infectives increases exponentially in time I Facilitates synchronization References 44 of 83 Popularity according to books: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means—Albert-Laszlo Barabási Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age—Duncan Watts [19] 45 of 83 More observations I Web-scale data sets can be overly exciting. Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Witness: Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory I I I The End of Theory: The Data Deluge Makes the Scientific Theory Obsolete (Anderson, Wired) () “The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data,” Halevy et al. [9] c.f. Wigner’s “The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences” [21] Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References But: I For scientists, description is only part of the battle. I We still need to understand. 46 of 83 Examples Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality What passes for a complex network? I I Complex networks are large (in node number) Complex networks are sparse (low edge to node ratio) I Complex networks are usually dynamic and evolving I Complex networks can be social, economic, natural, informational, abstract, ... Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 47 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Examples Physical networks I River networks I Neural networks I Trees and leaves I Blood networks Complexity Introduction Emergence I The Internet Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory I Road networks I Power grids Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References I Distribution (branching) versus redistribution (cyclical) 48 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Examples Interaction networks Complexity Introduction I The Blogosphere I Biochemical networks Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell I Gene-protein networks I Food webs: who eats whom I The World Wide Web (?) I Airline networks I Call networks (AT&T) I Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References datamining.typepad.com () The Media 49 of 83 Dynamic networks: Server security Serving one html page with an image: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References I Map of system calls made by a Linux server running Apache and Windows server running IIS. Which is which? Taken from http://www.visualcomplexity.com () 50 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Examples Interaction networks: social networks Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality I Snogging I Friendships I Acquaintances I Boards and directors Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell I Organizations I twitter.com () facebook.com (), I Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References (Bearman et al., 2004) ‘Remotely sensed’ by: tweets (open), instant messaging, Facebook posts, emails, phone logs (*cough*). 51 of 83 11/14/2006 09:04 PM Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Examples Relational networks I popular | recent Consumer purchases () login | register | help (Wal-Mart: ≈ 2.5 petabyte = 2.5 × 1015 bytes) I Thesauri: Networks of words generated by meanings I Knowledge/Databases/Ideas i/Main_Page 06 I del.icio.us search Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Metadata—Tagging: delicious (), flickr () Tweetage Mechanical Turk common tags References cloud | list community daily dictionary education encyclopedia english free imported info information internet knowledge learning news resources search reference tools useful research web web2.0 resource wiki wikipedia 52 of 83 Clickworthy Science: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Bollen et al. [5] ; a higher resolution figure is here () 53 of 83 A notable feature of large-scale networks: I Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Graphical renderings are often just a big mess. Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking ⇐ Typical hairball I I number of nodes N = 500 number of edges m = 1000 The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk I I average degree hk i = 4 References And even when renderings somehow look good: “That is a very graphic analogy which aids understanding wonderfully while being, strictly speaking, wrong in every possible way” said Ponder [Stibbons] —Making Money, T. Pratchett. I We need to extract digestible, meaningful aspects. 54 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Properties Some key aspects of real complex networks: Complexity Introduction Emergence I I degree distribution Pk ∗ I I assortativity concurrency hierarchical scaling I homophily I network distances I clustering I centrality I motifs I efficiency I modularity I robustness Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage I Mechanical Turk References Plus coevolution of network structure and processes on networks. ∗ Degree distribution is the elephant in the room that we are now all very aware of... 55 of 83 Nutshell: Overview Key Points: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality I The field of complex networks came into existence in the late 1990s. I Explosion of papers and interest since 1998/99. I Hardened up much thinking about complex systems. I Specific focus on networks that are large-scale, sparse, natural or man-made, evolving and dynamic, and (crucially) measurable. Three main (blurred) categories: I Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 1. Physical (e.g., river networks), 2. Interactional (e.g., social networks), 3. Abstract (e.g., thesauri). 57 of 83 Nutshell: Overview Key Points (cont.): Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence I I I Obvious connections with the vast extant field of graph theory. But focus on dynamics is more of a physics/stat-mech/comp-sci flavor. Two main areas of focus: 1. Description: Characterizing very large networks 2. Explanation: Micro story → Macro features I Some essential structural aspects are understood: degree distribution, clustering, assortativity, group structure, overall structure,... I Still much work to be done, especially with respect to dynamics... exciting! Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 58 of 83 Bonus materials: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Graduate Course Websites: Introduction Emergence Universality I I Principles of Complex Systems (), University of Vermont Complex Networks (), University of Vermont Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Textbooks: David Easley and Jon Kleinberg (Economics and Computer Science, Cornell) “Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning About a Highly Connected World” () I Mark Newman (Physics, Michigan) “Networks: An Introduction” () I Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 59 of 83 Bonus materials: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Review articles: Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking I I I S. Boccaletti et al. “Complex networks: structure and dynamics” [4] Times cited: 1,028 (as of June 7, 2010) M. Newman “The structure and function of complex networks” [12] Times cited: 2,559 (as of June 7, 2010) The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References R. Albert and A.-L. Barabási “Statistical mechanics of complex networks” [1] Times cited: 3,995 (as of June 7, 2010) 60 of 83 Bonus materials: I Complex Social Networks—F. Vega-Redondo [18] I Fractal River Basins: Chance and Self-Organization—I. Rodríguez-Iturbe and A. Rinaldo [13] Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking I Random Graph Dynamics—R. Durette I Scale-Free Networks—Guido Caldarelli I Evolution and Structure of the Internet: A Statistical Physics Approach—Romu Pastor-Satorras and Alessandro Vespignani I Complex Graphs and Networks—Fan Chung I Social Network Analysis—Stanley Wasserman and Kathleen Faust I Handbook of Graphs and Networks—Eds: Stefan Bornholdt and H. G. Schuster [6] I Evolution of Networks—S. N. Dorogovtsev and J. F. F. Mendes [8] The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 61 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness The Team: 1. People: Thanks to ... Kameron Harris Isabel Kloumann Complexity Catherine Bliss Chris Danforth Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk 2. Machines: References 3000 processors + storage at the Vermont Jonathan Harris & Sep Kamvar Advanced Computing wefeelfine.org Center I I 40 TB of storage in Danforth’s office. 3. Support: NSF and NASA. 63 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Happiness: Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References Socrates et al.: eudaimonia [10] Bentham: hedonistic calculus Jefferson: . . . the pursuit of happiness 64 of 83 Early drafts: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 65 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Twitter—living in the now: Complexity 0.16 breakfast 0.14 lunch 0.12 dinner Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking count fraction The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell 0.1 Measuring Happiness Tweetage 0.08 Mechanical Turk References 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 hour of day (local time) 66 of 83 Twitter—living in the now: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity 0.07 Introduction Emergence Universality 0.06 Symmetry Breaking count fraction The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks 0.05 Nutshell Measuring Happiness 0.04 Tweetage Mechanical Turk 0.03 hungry References starving 0.02 food 0.01 0 0 eat 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 hour of day (local time) 67 of 83 Twitter—living in the now: 0.06 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence 0.05 Universality Symmetry Breaking count (%) The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks 0.04 Nutshell Measuring Happiness 0.03 Tweetage Mechanical Turk 0.02 References 0.01 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 hour of day (local time) A few words you can’t say on television. 68 of 83 Twitter—overall time series: average happiness havg 6.4 2008— 12/25 2009— 12/25 2010— 12/25 2011— 6.3 A 12/24 01/01 11/27 6.1 04/12 11/26 02/14 6.2 06/21 12/24 12/24 12/31 02/14 05/09 07/04 01/01 12/31 12/31 04/04 10/31 07/04 06/20 10/31 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 02/14 11/25 10/31 01/01 05/08 04/29 04/24 6 09/29 5.9 04/27 06/25 09/14 02/27 08/06 05/24 06/27 10/26 03/11 700 600 B 500 400 300 word count (x10 7 ) Simpson lexical size N S 05/02 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 3 2 C 1 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May date Tref : 7 days before and after (havg =6.00) Tcomp: Monday, 2008/09/29 (havg =5.95) Tref : 7 days before and after (havg =5.98) Tcomp: Friday, 2011/04/29 (havg =6.04) 1−↑bailout −↑bill −↑down −↑failed −↑not 5 wedding +↑ 1 dead −↓ dont −↓ death −↓ beautiful +↑ hate −↓ kiss +↑ prince +↑ 5 last −↓ −↑no −↑fail −↑fails −↑blame +↓love −↑failure −↑bad −↑don’t −↑against −↑die −↑rejected −↑depression −↑crisis 10 15 money +↑ Word rank r Word rank r weekend +↑ 25 +↓won old −↓ −↑worst +↓great −↑panic +↓awesome −↑didn’t +↓google +↓saturday billion +↑ −↑hurt +↓win cancer −↓ 0 10 40 −↑sick −↑problem −↑crash +↓friday −↑falling 1 10 2 10 45 house +↑ Pr i=1 −20 0 δhavg,i live +↑ bad −↓ congrats +↑ amazing +↑ kill −↓ ill −↓ nigga −↓ Text size: wow +↑ Tref Tcomp died −↓ 35 0 10 +↓lol couple +↑ 3 10 10 −↓ 20 Per word average happiness shift δhavg,r (%) 50 +↓ +↑ −↑ −↓ +↓friends kissed +↑ she +↑ killing −↓ 4 −↑ 0 ass −↓ hell −↓ gorgeous +↑ Balance: congratulations +↑ −68 : +168 2 10 45 References +↓life 1 10 10 −↑gossip −↑poor −10 Mechanical Turk +↓game miss −↓ 4 10 −100 50 Tweetage married +↑ 40 +↓home −↑killed −↑fear 3 10 Nutshell Measuring Happiness +↓chocolate +↓love +↓win 25 Text size: Tref Tcomp Balance: −165 : +65 +↓ +↑ Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks weekend +↑ friday +↑ party +↑ 30 35 Universality +↓me +↓good +↓you 20 +↓sunday +↓fun +↓party +↓game 30 Introduction Emergence no −↓ princess +↑ never −↓ shit −↓ killed −↓ not −↓ dress +↑ real +↑ 15 20 Complexity +↓easter +↓happy 10 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness 0 P r δhavg,i −30 −20 i=1 100 +↓haha −10 0 10 20 30 Per word average happiness shift δhavg,r (%) 70 of 83 Tref : Tuesdays (havg =6.03) Tcomp: Saturdays (havg =6.06) love +↑ no −↓ haha +↑ party +↑ fun +↑ saturday +↑ 1 5 +↓new 6.08 havg Universality hahaha +↑ 6.06 20 W T F S S M T W T F S S M day of week 8 7 Word rank r 6.01 T The Big Theory live +↑ die −↓ friends +↑ game +↑ con −↓ movie +↑ cant −↓ 6.04 6.02 Symmetry Breaking −↑bored −↑drunk 15 6.05 6.03 havg Introduction Emergence −↑last 6.07 Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness −↑fight birthday +↑ +↓google 25 Tweetage great +↑ sunday +↑ family +↑ beautiful +↑ beach +↑ home +↑ 30 Mechanical Turk References +↓lunch 6 5 sick −↓ shopping +↑ playing +↑ 35 −↑don’t 4 T Complexity weekend +↑ not −↓ happy +↑ dont −↓ 10 2009−05−21 to 2010−12−31: Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Text size: Tcomp amazing +↑T ref bad −↓ awesome +↑ homework −↓ wedding +↑ 0 10 W T F S S M T W T F S S M 40 day of week 1 10 −↑hangover −↑miss +↓free 2 10 45 3 10 4 10 50 0 P r i=1 −10 Balance: −87 : +187 +↓ +↑ shit −↓ court −↓ nice +↑ won +↑ 100 +↓school δhavg,i −5 movies +↑ 0 −↑ 5 Per word average happiness shift δhavg,r (%) −↓ 10 71 of 83 valence rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 . . . word valence std dev twitter rank g-books rank nyt rank lyrics rank laughter happiness love happy laughed laugh laughing excellent laughs joy successful win rainbow smile won pleasure smiled rainbows winning celebration enjoyed healthy music celebrating congratulations weekend celebrate comedy jokes rich . . . 8.50 8.44 8.42 8.30 8.26 8.22 8.20 8.18 8.18 8.16 8.16 8.12 8.10 8.10 8.10 8.08 8.08 8.06 8.04 8.02 8.02 8.02 8.02 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.98 7.98 7.98 7.98 . . . 0.93 0.97 1.11 0.99 1.16 1.37 1.11 1.10 1.16 1.06 1.08 1.08 0.99 1.02 1.22 0.97 1.07 1.36 1.05 1.53 1.53 1.06 1.12 1.14 1.63 1.29 1.15 1.15 0.98 1.32 . . . 3600 1853 25 65 3334 1002 1579 1496 3554 988 2176 154 2726 925 810 1497 – – 1876 3306 1530 1393 132 2550 2246 317 1606 1444 2812 1625 . . . – 2458 317 1372 3542 3998 – 1756 – 2336 1198 3031 – 2666 1167 1526 3537 – – – 2908 3200 875 – – – – – – 1221 . . . – – 328 1313 – 4488 – 3155 – 2723 1565 776 – 2898 439 4253 – – 1426 2762 3502 3292 167 – – 833 3574 2566 – 1469 . . . 1728 1230 23 375 2332 647 1122 – 2856 809 – 694 1723 349 1493 1398 2248 4216 3646 4070 – 4619 374 – – 2256 2108 – 3808 890 . . . Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 73 of 83 valence rank . . . 10193 10194 10195 10196 10197 10198 10199 10200 10201 10202 10203 10204 10205 10206 10207 10208 10209 10210 10211 10212 10213 10214 10215 10216 10217 10218 10219 10220 10221 10222 word valence std dev twitter rank g-books rank nyt rank lyrics rank . . . violence cruel cry failed sickness abused tortured fatal killings murdered war kills jail terror die killing arrested deaths raped torture died kill killed cancer death murder terrorism rape suicide terrorist . . . 1.86 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.83 1.82 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.76 1.76 1.74 1.70 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.48 1.48 1.44 1.30 1.30 . . . 1.05 1.15 1.28 1.00 1.18 1.31 1.42 1.53 1.54 1.63 1.41 1.23 1.02 1.00 1.19 1.36 1.01 1.14 1.43 1.05 1.20 1.05 1.23 1.07 1.28 1.01 0.91 0.79 0.84 0.91 . . . 4299 2963 1028 2645 4735 – – – – – 468 2459 1642 4625 418 1507 2435 – – 3175 1223 798 1137 946 509 2762 – 3133 2124 3576 . . . 1724 – 3075 1618 – – – 4089 – – 175 – – 4117 730 4428 4474 – – – 866 2727 1603 1884 307 3110 – – 4707 – . . . 1238 – – 1276 – – – – 4914 – 291 – 2573 4048 2605 1672 1435 2974 – – 208 2572 814 796 373 1541 3192 4115 3319 3026 . . . 2016 1447 226 2920 3782 4589 4693 3724 – 4796 462 2857 1619 2370 143 998 – – 4528 3126 826 430 1273 3802 433 1059 – 2977 2107 – Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 74 of 83 std dev rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 . . . word valence std dev twitter rank g-books rank nyt rank lyrics rank fE@king fKKkin fKKked pussy whiskey slut cigarettes fKKk mortality cigarette motherfKKkers churches motherfKKking capitalism porn summer beer execution wines zombies aids capitalist revenge mcdonalds beatles islam pay alcohol muthafKKkin christ . . . 4.64 3.86 3.56 4.80 5.72 3.57 3.31 4.14 4.38 3.09 2.51 5.70 2.64 5.16 4.18 6.40 5.92 3.10 6.28 4.00 4.28 4.84 3.71 5.98 6.44 4.68 5.30 5.20 3.00 6.16 . . . 2.93 2.74 2.71 2.66 2.64 2.63 2.60 2.58 2.55 2.52 2.47 2.46 2.46 2.45 2.43 2.39 2.39 2.39 2.37 2.37 2.35 2.34 2.34 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.32 2.32 2.31 2.31 . . . 448 1077 1840 2019 – – – 322 – – – – – – 1801 896 839 – – 4708 2983 – – 3831 3797 – 627 2787 – 2509 . . . – – – – – – – – 3960 – – 2281 – 4648 – 1226 4924 2975 – – 3996 4694 – – – 4514 769 2617 – 909 . . . – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 721 3960 – 3316 – 1197 – – – – – 460 3752 – 4238 . . . 620 688 904 949 2208 4071 3279 185 – 2678 1466 – 2910 – – 590 1413 – – – – – 2766 – – – 499 3600 4107 1526 . . . Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 75 of 83 Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Positive bias in the English language: 0.15 Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality 0.125 Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks 0.1 Nutshell N Measuring Happiness 0.075 Tweetage Mechanical Turk References 0.05 0.025 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 havg 76 of 83 For more... I PSD, KDH, IMK, CAB, and CMD “Temporal patterns of happiness and information in a global social network: Hedonometrics and Twitter.” http://arxiv.org/abs/1101.5120 () Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory I P. S. Dodds and C. M. Danforth “Measuring the Happiness of Large-Scale Written Expression: Songs, Blogs, and Presidents.” [7] Journal of Happiness Studies, 2009. I http://www.uvm.edu/∼pdodds/research/ () I http://www.onehappybird.com () I Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk References “Does a Nation’s Mood Lurk in Its Songs and Blogs?” by Benedict Carey New York Times, August 2009. () 77 of 83 References I [1] R. Albert and A.-L. Barabási. Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Rev. Mod. Phys., 74:47–97, 2002. pdf () Complexity, Big Data Science, and Happiness Complexity Introduction Emergence Universality Symmetry Breaking The Big Theory [2] P. W. Anderson. More is different. Science, 177(4047):393–396, 1972. pdf () Revolution: Big Data & Complex Networks Nutshell Measuring Happiness Tweetage Mechanical Turk [3] A.-L. Barabási and R. Albert. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science, 286:509–511, 1999. pdf () [4] S. Boccaletti, V. 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