FOOD PRODUCTION AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE POLICIES

FOOD PRODUCTION AND
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
POLICIES
By
Dr. Muhammad Azeem Khan
Chief Scientific Officer & Director General,
National Agricultural Research Centre,
Islamabad, Pakistan
Presentation Format
1. Definition of food security and current situation
2. Agriculture in Pakistan
3. Macro picture of food security
4. Household level food security, shocks and coping
5.
6.
7.
8.
strategies;
Policy Challenges and Strategic Solutions
Potential to achieve food security
Agricultural innovations, research & development
experiences
Suggestions
Food Security
•
“Food Security Exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and
economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World
Food Summit, 1996)
•
FAO considers food security to consist of four main elements: food
availability through sufficient supply; food access for acquiring and
consuming food, in particular food necessary for nutritious diet; utilization
of food through adequate, water, sanitation and health practices; and
stability to ensure that food access at risk
•
Article 38 (d) of the Constitution of Pakistan ensures provision of basic
necessities of life including food for the citizens of Pakistan. It says:
“The State shall provide basic necessities of life, such as food, clothing,
housing, education and medical relief, for all citizens, irrespective of sex,
caste, creed or race, as are permanently or temporarily unable to earn their
livelihood on account of infirmity, sickness or unemployment”
Pakistan’s Agriculture
Progress since 1947
 From food shortages and import:
- to self-sufficiency and exports
 From subsistence farming:
- to intensive and technology led
cultivation
 From green revolution:
- to white and gene revolutions
4
Agro-ecological Zones
I - Indus Delta
V - Barani Lands
IX - Dry Western Plateau
II - Southern Irrigated Plain
VI - Wet Mountains
X - Sulaiman Piedmont
III - Sandy Desert (a&b)
VII - Northern Dry Mountains
IV - Northern Irrigated Plain (a & b)
VIII - Western Dry Mountains
5
Pakistan Production Systems
N
6
6
According to Agricultural statistics of Pakistan
•
•
Agriculture contributes 21 percent in GDP and engage 40 percent of
the labor force
Geographic area 79.6 m hectares (27% cultivated and 80%
irrigated).
According to Food and Agriculture organization (2011)








Pakistan is second largest producer of chickpea
Fourth largest producer of apricot, cotton, sugarcane
Fifth largest producer of milk, onion,
Sixth largest producer of date palm,
Seventh largest producer of mango,
Ninth largest producer of wheat and
Tenth largest producer of oranges in the world.
Overall Pakistan is ranked twentieth in the world regarding farm
output.
WHAT IS FOOD INSECURITY?
The state in which people are at risk or actually suffering from inadequate
consumption to meet nutritional requirements as a result of physical
unavailability of food, their lack of social or economic access to adequate food
and/or inadequate food utilization.
Food Poverty Incidence
 Pakistan is ranked 11th globally facing




the risk of food insecurity
One third of the population is living
below the food poverty line
Incidence of food poverty is higher in
rural areas (35%) than urban (26%)
1/3 children <5 years of age are under
weight
The food insecurity is higher among
females as compared to males
(Food Security
Situation in
South Asia:
Problems and
ProspectsSAARC,
Human
Resource
Development
Centre, 2012)
Country Report
Nutrient weaknesses[RDA]
 A micro level study from 17 agro-ecologies (2011)
 Major macro nutrients [energy & protein] at higher
level.
 Micro nutrients consumed at low levels [ Iron,
calcium, vitamin-A etc].
 Vitamin A deficiency is more sever but all taken
together micro nutrients deficiency noticeable.
Macro Picture: Per Capita Availability of Food in Pakistan
Years
1990-91
1995-96
1999-00
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Per capita annual availability (kg/person/annum)
Percap
Edible
daily
Food
Oil
Meat Milk Fruits Vegetable Total
Grams
grains
/V.Ghee
137.44
9.99 13.90 60.93 47.73
23.49
293.48 804.06
148.55
11.42 17.25 67.16 56.23
27.03
327.64 897.64
158.83
11.08 14.19 82.15 52.23
24.55
343.03 939.80
142.58
12.35 15.19 85.50 52.64
26.17
334.42 916.23
140.98
12.75 16.33 90.30 51.25
31.18
342.79 939.14
144.79
12.81 16.70 94.54 50.04
29.79
348.67 955.26
155.04
13.29 17.00 93.93 53.71
31.23
364.20 997.79
153.99
13.45 17.50 94.81 52.88
24.06
356.69 977.22
158.8
11.56 17.27 96.52 53.64
33.6
371.39 1017.51
158.7
12.97 16.76 97.37 53.75
34.8
374.35 1025.62
160.0
13.14 18.07 97.40 54.12
34.7
377.43 1034.05
Consistent increase is observed
Wheat Balance-Sheet for (000 Tones) &
Import Dependency
Year
1961
1970
1980
1990
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Stock
Production Imports change
3814
7294
10856
14316
16907
16650
18694
17856
21079
21612
21277
23295
20959
24033
23310
25213
23473
Exports Total
Feed, seed Availabili Import
others 10% ty
share
1080
229
604
2047
-308
336
-1217
-691
0
108
3
2
4586
7751
10240
15670
385
729
1086
1432
2500
4088
2023
2006
80
535
133
1820
3188
-2539
-3487
-2181
-2061
3045
851
-1411
-936
-1867
5000
309
3562
827
0
0
0
0
80
471
976
530
142
0
305
1781
413
16868
17251
18536
17801
24124
22527
19023
23649
22138
29033
23314
26994
23887
1691
1665
1869
1786
2108
2161
2128
2330
2096
2403
2331
2699
2388
0
0
0
0
4205
7022
9154
14238
15177
15586
16667
16015
22016
20366
16895
21320
20042
26630
20983
24295
21499
25.7
3.3
6.6
14.4
16.5
26.2
12.1
12.5
0.4
2.6
0.8
8.5
15.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Food Security Situation (PPHS 2010)
Food
Secure
(0-2)
Moderately Food
Insecure
(3-5)
Severely
Food
Insecure
(6-9)
PPHS
NNS
PPHS
NNS
PPHS
NNS
Punjab
36.1
40.5
29.4
32.2
34.5
27.3
Sind
27.5
28
28.6
21.1
43.9
50.6
K . P. Khaw
45.4
68.5
43.2
21
11.4
10.5
Balochistan
77.5
36
19.2
33.9
3.3
29.5
Pakistan
39.6
42
30.2
28.4
30.2
29.6
URBAN
43.1
48
30.4
26.5
26.5
25.9
RURAL
38.0
39.4
30.1
28.3
31.9
31.2
High Prices and Coping Strategies
Food Index
Affected by high prices?
Food
Secure
Moderate
Insecure
Severe
Insecure
Total
0.79
0.96
0.96
0.89
Did anything to cope with?
0.65
0.97
0.95
0.84
 quantity of food intake
0.43
0.86
0.94
0.71
Switched to lower quality food
0.53
0.91
0.96
0.78
 nonfood exp
0.58
0.92
0.96
0.80
Spent savings/investments
Loans from employer/traders
Loans from relatives/friends
0.34
0.28
0.62
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.44
0.21
0.41
0.59
0.39
Loans from formal Sources
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.08
Help/gifts (not loans)
Sold household belong/assts
0.03
0.08
0.19
0.10
0.04
0.11
0.15
0.09
Transfers gvmt/NGO (not loans)
0.02
0.06
0.10
0.06
Children out of school
Children out of school & to work
 education expenses
Worked more
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.20
0.05
0.03
0.21
0.44
0.07
0.06
0.12
0.30
0.05
0.03
0.12
0.30
Welfare Analysis of Government Policy
 Heavy subsidies:
o
o
o
Consumers partially benefited
Flour millers major beneficiary
Crowded out private investment
Rs. Million
1996-97
Rural poor lack access
to most of the safety nets
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00
Aver
Consumer gain
Millers gain
60510
35291
11989
45307
38274
14454
14710
11803
3246
11053
Producer loss
56615
37176
16658
41371
37955
Government cost
Gain to society
17034
17156
9636
15145
14743
1315
-4331
-2502
-7963
-3370
Ahmad, et. Al. (2006) Impact of Domestic Policies towards Agricultural Trade Liberalization and
Market Reform on Food Security in Pakistan http://pide.org.pk/pdf /foodsecurity/ research/FS2.pdf
Food Security Challenge-Pakistan
 Population would be 230 to 260 million by 2030
(World's 5th largest country)
 Water scarcity and climate change
 Crop productivity using lesser land and water
resources than are available for agriculture today
 Agriculture need to provide healthy food
A-Challenges-Population,
Water and
Climate Change
• Ranked 28th – severely affected by CC (22 in Africa)
(IUCN, 2009). Cereals are under heat stress in South Asia. Yields
could  by 30% by end of century due to CC
• 10C    wheat yield by 5–7% in Pakistan (Sivakumar
and Stefanski, 2011)
Low income levels and extreme weather events results
into serious disruptions in food security efforts
B. Potential sources of growth in food production?
1. Raising Total Factor Productivity (TFP); and
No country has been able to sustain a rapid transition
out of poverty without raising productivity in its
agriculture sector (Peter Timmer, 2005)
Requires R & D to develop indigenous technologies :
• Favourable policies,
• Infrastructure, and
• Institutional support
2. Institutional setup assisting the
agriculture sector.
 The differences in wealth across countries cannot be
explained by :
•
•
•
•
•
access to productive knowledge;
access to capital markets;
ratio of population to natural resources;
quality of marketable human capital; and/or
personal culture.
Then! What made the difference ?
Quality of the countries’ institutions
and economic policies
Example: Migrants from poor to rich countries.
Source: (Olson, 1996 p19)
We need to “wise up
Intensity of public
agricultural R&D spending,
1996—2009
New Innovations and Development
strategies
 Varietal diversification
 National hybrids (canola, Sunflower, Mize)
 Water harvesting and efficient use
 Bio-remediation of waste water
 Sustainable





land
intensification
(bio-fertlizers,
production)
Cage culture for fish production
Management of post harvest losses
Rural poultry and livestock production
Removing policy distortion
Cedar of trained workers and service providers
organic
Mechanism for wheat Varietal
Testing & Release (60 varieties)
International
Centres
Coordinated
Programme(s)
Primary &
Advance Testing
Seed Councils
National
Centres
Primary &
Advance Testing
Seed Agencies
Primary &
Advance Testing
Farmers
National Uniform
Yield Trails
Rod-Kohi Development
 In rod kohi water drains from 40.12




mh
Command is around 7 mha which is
31% of total cultivated areas in
Pakistan.
Currently, 0.50Mha is under
cultivation.
The total runoff generated by system
in the country is around 12 MAF.
This is more than Terbela dam
(9MAF) and potentially can irrigate
5-6 mha of land.
Bio-Remediation of Sewage Water
• 13,000 million (8000 Sewage + 5000
Industrial) cubic meter wastewater, equal to
130 Rawal Dam, is generated .
• Around 50000 ha irrigated with waste water
• 26% vegetable grown in peri-uran areas
• Bio-Remediation technology fully developed
for cost effective treatment of sewage water
• No chemical and mechanical requirements,
• bio-remediation technology could be used on
large scale in collaboration with Provincial
and city administrations …..
Bio-fertilizer-Products
Developed
 Nitrogen
fixer for
legume
crops.
 Solubilizes
fixed P in
soil
 Produces
plant growth
promoting
hormones
Three types of Bio-fertilizers
Biozote-N
Biozote-P
Being
registered
by GoPPunjab
Biozote-Max
Blue Revolution
 The production of fish, shrimps
and prawns can be increased
by 100% every year by using
tested new technologies
 Substantial foreign exchange
can be earned by improving
processing and observing
Sanitary/ Phyto Sanitary (SPS)
Protocols.
 Adoption of Cage Farming for
marine and inland fish can
transform fisheries sector
 Great potential for processing
and export of high quality fish
26
Alternate Energy for Conservative
Agriculture
 Solar and bio-gas as alternate
energy for promotion on 5
mha area in different
ecologies
 Solar desalinization
technologies for salinity
affected areas
 Provide clean energy with no
recurring cost
 It has potential to ensure uninterrupted supply of energy
to farm sector
27
Alternate Energy Sources
 Energy crisis badly hit agriculture sector
 Use of Alternate Energy became very vital in agriculture
 Demonstrated Alternate Energy technologies
 Dual fuel (Biogas-Diesel) engines for pumping water
 Solar powered energy efficient irrigation systems
 Solar-dryers for Dates, Fruits and Vegetables
 Solar desalinization in Rural Areas
Agriculture Service
Providers
 Millions of jobs can be created in agriculture
sector in following fields:
 Skilled and trained Farm and Livestock Managers
 Service Providers and Farm Workers trained in alternate
energy, high efficiency irrigation system, pruning, animal
care etc.
 Trained labour force in Fisheries
 Young agriculture graduates as entrepreneurs for clean and
true to type fruit and vegetable nurseries
 Massive Employment opportunities in value chain and food
processing
29
High Egg Producing Rural
Poultry
 High productivity with minimal
extra cost-These cross bred High
Egg Producing Chicken produce
at least 200 eggs per hen per year
 Live at kitchen waste and
ordinary food
 Employment generation
 Livelihood improvement
 Uplifting of village economy
 Empowering women
Back to
Innovations
Conclusion
 Huge potential to secure food through





adoption of agricultural innovations
Innovative research and extension efforts to
improve the food security levels of small
farmers
Enhanced investment for R&D
Promotion of improved varieties/Hybrids
Effective pro poor policies and their
implementation
Beside food availability focusing on food