National accounts and financial statistics: Rochelle Barrow Reserve Bank of New Zealand

National accounts and financial statistics:
Where are we? Where are we going?
Rochelle Barrow
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Overview
• What are macroeconomic accounts and why they are
important?
• The current state of New Zealand’s macroeconomic accounts
• Why we need to improve
• Some Reserve Bank initiatives that are currently underway to
improve our accounts
The broad framework
Financial sector
Government sector
Monetary and
Financial Statistics
(MFSM)
Government
Finance
Statistics
(GFS)
System
of National
Accounts
(SNA)
Financial
Soundness
Indicators
(FSI)
External sector
Prudential
Balance of
Payments
(BPM)
System of
Environmental and
Economic Accounting
(SEEA)
Non-profit
Institutions
Supply and
use tables
Tourism
(TSA)
Satellite Accounts and other Matrices
Environment
At the core of the framework is the SNA
Production
Account
Income and
Outlay Account
Capital Account
Opening
Balance
Sheet
Reconciliation
Accounts
Financial
Account
Closing
Balance
Sheet
At the core of the framework is the SNA
Production
Account
FLOW
Income and
Outlay Account
Capital Account
Opening
Balance
Sheet
Reconciliation
Accounts
Financial
Account
Closing
Balance
Sheet
At the core of the framework is the SNA
Production
Account
Income and
Outlay Account
STOCKS
REVALUATIONS
Capital Account
Opening
Balance
Sheet
Reconciliation
Accounts
Financial
Account
Closing
Balance
Sheet
At the core of the framework is the SNA
Production
Account
GDP
Income and
Outlay Account
Saving
Capital Account
Opening
Balance
Sheet
Net lending/borrowing
Reconciliation
Accounts
Closing
Balance
Sheet
Financial
Account
Wealth
Wealth
These are the parts of the SNA that we have
Production
Account
GDP
FLOWS
GDP, income, saving,
investment
Income and
Outlay Account
Saving
Capital Account
Opening
Balance
Sheet
Net lending/borrowing
Reconciliation
Accounts
Closing
Balance
Sheet
Financial
Account
Wealth
Wealth
These are the parts we don’t have
Production
Account
STOCKS,
REVALUATIONS
Wealth
Financial flows
GDP
Income and
Outlay Account
Saving
Capital Account
Opening
Balance
Sheet
Net lending/borrowing
Reconciliation
Accounts
Closing
Balance
Sheet
Financial
Account
Wealth
Wealth
These are the parts we don’t have
Sector / Account
Production
Account
Income
and
outlay
Account
Capital
Account
Producer Enterprises
Annual
Annual
Annual
Financial Intermediaries
Annual
Annual
Annual
General Government
Annual
Annual
Annual
NPISH
Annual
Annual
Annual
Households
Annual
Annual
Annual
NA
Quarterly
Quarterly
Rest of the world
Financial
Account
Recon
Accounts
Balance
sheet
Partial
Annual
Quarterly
Quarterly
(not pub)
Quarterly
Frequency and timeliness
• Frequency - Annual
• Timeliness
– rest of world – 80 days
– government and household – 8 months
– other sectors – 2 years +
• Length of time series
– National accounts 1972
– Sectoral accounts 1999
What are the benefits of
macroeconomic accounts?
• Contain embedded knowledge on how to categorise parts
of the economy and how these parts fit together
• Provide a starting point for thinking about relationships
between economic variables, and economic problems and
imbalances
• Pull together an immense amount of data and present it in
an accessible manner
• Provide an accounting structure that helps to ensure quality
• International comparability
Why do we need a full suite of sector accounts?
Outputs
• Deliver key statistics that are currently missing
• Wealth, financial flows, revaluations
• To show how the financial sector and the real economy are
linked
• To ensure economic debate and discussion in New Zealand is
informed
• To ensure international confidence in the state of the New
Zealand economy and its operation
• To deliver on international reporting expectations of a
developed economy
Why do we need a full suite of sector accounts?
Improve data quality
• Internal consistency
• Highlights data weaknesses
• Improve reliability
• Ensure relevance and international comparability
• Improve timeliness
Why do we need a full suite of sector accounts?
Balance of Payments - Net errors and omissions
14,000
NZ NEO
12,000
Australian NEO
10,000
8,000
6,000
$m
4,000
2,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-2,000
-4,000
Why do we need a full suite of sector accounts?
Why do we need a full suite of sector accounts?
Household sector saving ($m)
4,000
2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
-12,000
-14,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
-2,000
1987
0
2010 release
2009 release
Why don’t we have a full suite of sector
accounts?
• It is complex and time consuming work
• Lack of wide public demand for the output - other than the GDP
measures
• Costly - development, regular production and maintenance costs
• Data intensive, leading to respondent load
• The largest collector and producer of financial sector statistics
(RBNZ) is separate from the producer of the national accounts
(Statistics NZ)
So what is the way forward?
RBNZ initiatives
• RBNZ and Statistics NZ currently working together to assess the
feasibility of sectoral financial accounts, balance sheets and flow
of funds statistics
• RBNZ working on implementation of MFSM, with the release of
our own balance sheet in MFSM form later this year
• RBNZ beginning a programme to redevelop and integrate our
bank data collections
• RBNZ will introduce new data collections aligning with our new
prudential responsibilities e.g. insurance companies
• RBNZ to build a security-by-security database
Summary
• Overview of macroeconomic accounts and their importance
• We must improve New Zealand’s macroeconomic accounts
• A flavour of some of the initiatives to improve our
macroeconomic statistics
End of presentation