(RFMMC) Lessons Learnt from the Implementing of the Mekong flood forecast services

MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION
Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre
(RFMMC)
Lessons Learnt from the Implementing of the
Mekong flood forecast services
Prepared by RFMMC for the Expert Group Meeting on Strategies towards Building Resilience
to Disasters in Asia and the Pacific, 26 October 2015, Bangkok Thailand
Regional Flood Management and Mitigation
Centre, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
The regional centre serves important
role for data and information
sharing, exchange capacity and
collaboration across Members (MRC,
2004) the new structure of the
MRCS (2016) the centre remains as a
core function.
Floods and flooding in Mekong
1966 (worst in over 100 years)
2000 (worst in over 40 years)
2011 (worst in over 30 years)
Table: flood damages
Year
US$ million
% total
Fatalities
% total
2000
517
13
710
26
2001
215
6
492
18
2011
493
13
416
15
2013
2,172
53
500
18
Our focus is non-structural measures
by intervention flood forecasting and
warning systems
Adaptation measures in the flood management context should involve a best
mixture of structural and non-structural measures, with the aim of minimizing the
losses of life from flooding and maximizing the net benefits derived from the
floodplains (WMO,2004)
Flood warning services at the Centre
Flood Forecasting System (FFS)
Flood Forecasting
River Flooding
Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS)
Warning System
Flash Flooding
5-7 days lead time
Short-term flood
forecasting and
river monitoring for
22 locations along
the Mekong
mainstream rom
Chiang Sean,
Thailand to Chau
Doc/Tan Chau,
Vietnam.
URBS MODEL
•Type: Hydrological model.
•Area: LMB
REGRESION MODEL
•Type: Statistical model
•Area: from Stung Treng to
Chau Doc.
ISIS MODEL
•Type: Hydrodynamic model
•Area from Kratie to Chau Doc
Data and information
Observed
•
•
•
•
Daily near real time rainfall and water level
15 min and 1 hourly real time telemetry data
3 hours GTS rainfall data
Weather situation notices (2-6 times/weeks)
forecast
•
•
Daily Satellite Rainfall Estimates (SRE)
Daily Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
hourly TRMM/Hydro-estimator
3 hourly Access G model rainfall
Rainfall data from ECMWF
INPUTS
•
•
Hydmet software stored observed data
•
•
•
•
HYMET TOOL is a potential
data sharing tool/mechanism
(re: MRC regional technical
gathering workshop,
2013&2014)
time records
import/export functions
reporting functions
etc
DATA FLOW AT RFMMC
Observed data from MRC
MCs (KH, LA, TH, VN)
Met Office
Webserver
Telemetry
forecasts
reports
Viewer
http://ffw.mrcmekong.org
Forecasting
Shell Servers
Master
Controller
data
Operator
Client
Local
Datastore
Central
Database
Server
Client
Data collection and transfer arrangement
between MRC MCs and RFMMC
MOU for KH, LA, VN- 3 years renewable basis and
TOR for TH- yearly renewable
•
•
•
•
•
•
Station network
improvement
training
Communications
O&M etc
No staff cost
Items are various
from country to
country
End
2015
Start
2016
Decentralization of the activity
Annual regional technical gathering is a good
flat form to share practical experiences and
challenges among forecasters
Challenges in data collection and transfer
 Quality of data;
 Quantity of data and
 Collection/Transfer mechanism
Those are dominant factors for the
timely and reliable information.
8
Water Level of Mekong at Chiang Saen
7
Gauge height in metres
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
01Nov
16Nov
M in WL
01Dec
16Dec
31Dec
A verage1980-13
15Jan
30Jan
14Feb
1992-93
01Mar
16Mar
31Mar
2012-13
15Apr
30Apr
2013-14
15May
30May
14Jun
2014-15
Challenges in data collection and transfer
Maintenance and improving monitoring the existing network
stations is continuous and always face with national resourcing,
especially for increasing tributary coverage and fill the gaps of the
existing stations networks.
it is favour a regional/central data portal that supports multiple
data “routes” such as by SMS, email and as bulletins.
There are inevitable issues by start associated inconsistencies with
data formatting across member countries.
Level of technical capacity and skills (hydro-meteorology)
The accuracy of
forecast from
upstream to
downstream are
dramatically
improved with
regular system
improvements
exercises.
The timing and reliability of the forecasting informatio
- illness and absence of data collector
- failure in telecoms networks or isolated stations
- sometimes issue with data sharing tool
- miss of data recording due to weather conditions
Dissemination of flood warning
at the RFMMC
Flood in formation can be accessed
from http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/
E-mail to
groups of
recipients from
government
agencies to
IO’s& NGO’s
concerned
MRC webpage
Face book
Challenges in dissemination of flood warning
The“billboards” provided valuable
community level training and awareness
raising-- provides valuable insight into
roles, responsibilities for the end users
(thru groups of people represented and
well respected by a majority of
communities such as monks, village heads
Limitations of communication and
messaging at the local and community
levels.
Lessons learnt since the events of 2000?
There are 5 options – in effect:
Structural works….keeping the water away
from the people
• Land use controls / zoning …..keeping
people away from the water
• Development and building controls…..
flood proofing
• Regional flood emergency planning ….
assisting flood prone communities to live
with floods
• Community flood emergency planning …..
communities are encouraged to accept
responsibility for their own flood
management and mitigation
And 4 supplementary measures
• Integrated land use planning …. land use controls
for flood prone areas
• Flood simulation modeling ….. developing an
understanding of flood generation processes
• Flood forecasting …… prediction and analysis for
flood warning purposes
• Flood warning ….. the timely and effective
provision of warnings to those at risk
Conclusion and ways forward
Floods become severe and frequent causing more
damages and fatalities
 Investment in data is critical and a basic step
towards better management of flood risks
 Two major measures should be taken by
either one and/or few parties concerned
 Further strengthen our work at, streamline
communication and messaging to community
Thank you
very much
for your
attention!
Number of selected slides are obtained from
MRC MCs as references
(ref MRC MCs, Technical gathering workshop in 2015)
Data flow at DHRW, Cambodia
Stung Treng
Lum Phat, Veon Sai Siem
pang, Kg. Loung, Kg.
Kdey, Kg. Chen Kg.
Chhnang
Prek Kdam
Kratie
Kg.Cham
Neak Lung
Phone
at
7am
MOWRAM
DHRW
Phone
at
7am
Koh Khel
Chaktomuk
E-mail
Before 8am
MRCS
Related agencies
Data collection at DWR, Thailand
Internet
WMO Centers’
Website
Dial-Up
Via Modem
Phone
Line
R.A. II RTH
Bang Kok
64kbps FTP
TCP / IP
Provincial
Services of
Meteorology
and Hydrology
DMH’s
Telecommunication
Center
SSB
Radio
MTSAT-VIS
MTSAT-IR1
MTSAT-IR2
MTSAT-IR4
MTSAT-IR3
Renew every 30
minute
GTS Network
MTSAT-1R
Satellite
Doppler
Weather
RADAR
C- band
Intensity mode 400 km
Doppler mode 120 km
National Weather Forecast Center
District
Meteorological
and Hydrological
Stations
Flood
Forecasting
Unit
Dissemination of flood warning in DHRW of Cambodia
10 near real time
Hydrological
stations
DHRW
MOWRAM
Flood Bulletin,
and Flood
Warning
Fax, Email,
Website MASS MEDIA (TVS,
Concern line agencies
(Gov. Nat. Committees,
NGOs, UN agencies,
MRCS, …)
RADIOS,
NEWSPAPERS, …)
Organization structure for disseminating of weather and
flood forecast and warning in Lao P.D.R
Provincial Hydro-Meteo Stations
LNMC
Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH)
Head Quarter office in Lao P.D.R
MoNRE
Prime Minister’s
Office
MAF
MEM
Others
Mass Media
TV,Radio, News
Line Ministries
concerned
LNMC: Lao national Mekong Committee
MAF: Ministry of agriculture and forestry
NDMO: National Disaster Management office
MM : Ministry of Energy and Mining
Provincial
Hydro-Meteo
Stations
NDMO
Remark:
MRC: Mekong River Commission
MRCS
Electricity
Hydro-Power
Provincial
Agriculture
and Forestry
services
Provincial
TV
Dissemination of flood warning in Thailand
Public participation
Training to village
volunteers
NCHMF
Telephone line,
Fax, internet,
LAN
Central Gov. authorities
Centre committee Flood and
Storm control
Media
Community
Bulletins, warnings dissemination in Vietnam
Web: nchmf.gov.vn
Bulletins, Warnings
Provincial
Hydromet. center
Regional
Centers
Special services
Media
Local Authorities
Media
Community
Fax, nternet,
LAN