The World Economic Database Alphametrics & UNCTAD Juan Pizarro Rios, PhD Bangkok, 9 December 2015

The World Economic Database
Alphametrics & UNCTAD
Juan Pizarro Rios, PhD
Consultant
Geneva, Switzerland
[email protected]
Bangkok, 9 December 2015
1
Part 1
The Global Policy Model
Alphametrics & UNCTAD
2
United Nations Global Policy Model
3
The UN Global Policy Model (GPM) • It is based on the experience of global modeling of the Department of Applied Economics (DAE) of the University of Cambridge since the 80s. • One of the main authors of DAE’s global modelling work, Francis Cripps (Alphametrics), has been the principal investigator behind all versions of the UN GPM. • First version was created by UN DESA in 2007.
• From December 2013 onwards, the responsibility for the maintenance and revisions of the model and database resides on UNCTAD. • UNCTAD is committed to make the databank available to a wider audience. 4
• The GPM is not a (short‐term) forecasting model. • It is a model of the world economy design to simulate the macroeconomic impacts on countries and regions of – exogenous shocks to the global economy, – the potential effects of 'sea changes' in market confidence (such as reversals in financial market confidence following asset price bubbles), – changes in international regulation of trade and finance and • The main policy arenas are ‘fiscal policy’, ‘monetary policy’ and ‘exchange rate, trade and industrial policy’.
5
Global Policy Model each country or bloc
natural resources
global economy
net imports or exports of commodities and energy
imports of manufactures and services
government debt
capital stock
bank lending
fiscal, monetary & structural policies
consumption and investment
world markets for commodities and energy
world markets for manufactures and services
global policy coordination
global financial markets
exports and current a/c
CO2
, holding gains
reserves
domestic income, output, employment, inflation
external position
holding gains
Indices
Applications
7
UNCTAD
Trade and Development Report 2014
8
9
10
ILO & Tufts University
The Trans‐Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability
Jeronim Capaldo
11
12
Part 2
Database: Final User
13
How the WD databank is built
Source data
files
Source areas in
the databank
Common area in
the databank
National
accounts
Reporter
series
Employment
etc.
Country
aggregation
Adjusted
and
reconciled
series for
publication
Extraction by
end users
Extraction by
end users
Extraction by
end users
The interface: Select the reporters and variables
15
The interface: List of predefined regions
16
Select the quality of data, years
17
Result
18
Requirements
• SQL Server 2012 Express and SQL Server Management Studio 2012 Express to be installed in a laptop.
• Excel programme to download data
19
Package for final user
• A final user receives a zip file containing:
– A user manual: “WD82 User Manual.doc”
– A visual guide: “Installing SQL 2012 Express.doc”
– 2 SQL files:
• WD82.mdf (SQL database)
• WD82_log.ldf (keeps track of almost every change)
– An excel file to download data: WD82.xls
20
The user manual: tables
Table 2 – Datasets and source coverage
Table 1 ‐ Data sources
Publisher
Collection
UN Statistics Division
IMF
UN Statistics Division
ILO
World Bank
UN Population Division
UN Statistics Division
IMF
IMF
IMF
OECD
OECD
Solt at Univ of Iowa
OECD
Taiwan NDC
Eurostat
OECD
IMF
IMF
BP
UNCTAD
Federal Reserve
World Bank
Federal Reserve
BCRA
COMTRADE
International Financial Statistics
National accounts main aggregates
Labour statistics
World Development Indicators
World Population Prospects
Energy databank
World Economic Outlook
International Investment Position (BPM5)
International Investment Position (BP6)
Official Development Assistance
National accounts
Standardized World Inequality Indicators
Labour statistics
Statistical Data Book
National accounts
Monthly Monetary and Financial Statistics (MEI)
Government Financial Statistics
GFS CD
Statistical Review of World Energy
Commodity price database
F.132(A) Rest of the World
Global macroeconomics
L.132(A) Rest of the World
Monetary and Financial Outlook
No of
observati Per cent
ons
560,659
38.2
170,846
11.7
165,323
11.3
116,485
7.9
104,374
7.1
70,035
4.8
59,119
4.0
24,839
1.7
21,327
1.5
19,073
1.3
6,768
0.5
5,150
0.4
4,216
0.3
3,746
0.3
1,299
0.1
1,051
0.1
641
0.0
536
0.0
413
0.0
406
0.0
88
0.0
44
0.0
44
0.0
44
0.0
35
0.0
DS
A
B
E
F
I
L
N
P
T
No of
% source
variables coverage
national accounts
35
60.7
balance of payments
42
41.8
energy
19
39.4
finance
32
34.8
indicators
16
66.5
labour force
45
36.3
population
18
37.4
world price deflators
3
100.0
merchandise trade
7
38.9
Name
Table 3 – Coverage by world region
Region
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
% source
coverage
North America
72.6
Caribbean
30.6
Central and South America
48.0
Europe
51.4
West Asia and North Africa
42.6
Central Asia
30.9
Other Africa
32.8
South Asia
46.0
21 48.9
East Asia
Pacific
28.6
Name
The user manual: tables
Table 4 – Quality indicator breakdown
Table 5 – Estimation methods
% by
% of items
value
source data
84.2
40.7
secondary source
5.1
1.0
interpolated
1.7
10.8
extrapolated
5.6
25.5
assumed value
3.4
22.0
Interpretation
Table 6 Bound ajustments
DS
A
B
E
F
I
L
N
P
T
Description
national accounts
balance of payments
energy
finance
indicators
labour force
population
world price deflators
merchandise trade
Too high Too low
7
4
0
4
0
225
30
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
267
0
0
0
QI Method
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
EI
EU
EG
EV
EH
EJ
EK
EP
ED
EQ
EZ
EE
EL
EM
EF
Description
interpolation
backwards extrepolation by reference variable
backwards extrapolation by reference reporter
forward extrepolation by reference variable
forward extrapolation by reference reporter
backwards extrapolation by parent reporter
forward extrapolation by parent reporter
assume same ratio to ref variable as ref reporter
backwards extrapolation with decay
assume same value as in reference reporter
assume zero
forward extrapolation with unchanged value
backrwards extrapolation as log curve
forward extrapolation as log curve
assumed value
%
estimated
5.1
9.9
2.6
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.0
13.4
6.0
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
22
The user manual: tables
Table B – Coverage by GEO code: 207 countries
Table 7 ‐ Accounting Identities: 108 identities
Ident
A1
A1.1
A1.2
A1.3
A1.4
A1.5
A2
A2.1
A2.2
A2.3
A2.4
A2.5
A3
A3.1
A3.2
B1
B1.1
B1.2
B1.3
B1.4
B1.5
B2
B2.1
B2.2
B2.3
B2.4
B3
B3.1
B3.2
B3.3
B3.4
B3.5
B3.6
B3.7
B4
Description
GDP
World trade in goods and services
Gross domestic product by sector
Expenditure on gross domestic product
Expenditure on GDP (2005 prices)
Gross domestic product by income type
Domestic spending and capital formation
Domestic expenditure
Consumption spending
Gross capital formation
Change in inventories
Gross fixed capital formatioin
Government finance
Government financial balance
Government revenue
Exports and imports
World trade in goods
World trade in services
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
World current account
Income and transfers
Balance on current account
Balance on income and transfers
World income credits and debits
World transfer credits and debits
Balance of payments
World direct investment flows
Balance of payments
Financial flows
Portfolio asset flows
Portfolio liability flows
Income credits
Income debits
Portfolios and other investment
Scope
Formula
global
country
country
country
country
sum AXX = sum AXM
APA+APE+APM+APS=APT
AXD+AXX=APT+AXM
AXD0+AXX0=APT0+AXM0
APT=AYC+AYM+AYW+AYX
country
country
country
country
country
AXD=ACT+AIT
ACT=ACP+ACG
AIT=AKT+AVT
AVT=AVP+AVG
AKT=AKG+AKP
country AYG=ACG+AKG+AVG+ALG
country ARG=ATG+AYG
global
global
country
country
global
sum BXG=sum BMG
sum BXS=sum BMS
AXX=BXG+BXS
AXM=BMG+BMS
sum BCA=0
country
country
global
global
BXG+BXS+BIT=BCA+BMG+BMS
BCI+BCT=BIT+BDI+BDT
sum BCI=sum BDI
sum BCT=sum BDT
global
country
country
country
country
country
country
sum BDA=sum BDL
BFI+BFT=BCA+BKA+BEO
BFF+BDA+BPA+BOA=BFT+BDL+BPL+BOL
BPA=BEA+BBA
BPL=BEL+BBL
BCI=BCE+BCP
BDI=BDE+BDP
Seq
01
01
01
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
02
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
03
Region
North America
North America
North America
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Caribbean
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
Central and South America
GEO
US
CA
MX
JM
TT
BB
BS
DO
HT
LC
GD
AN
VC
DM
AG
AB
CU
BM
AI
TC
KN
KY
VG
BR
AR
CO
CL
VE
PE
CR
UY
SV
PA
EC
PY
% source
coverage
United States
77.7
Canada
77.5
Mexico
62.8
Jamaica
48.2
Trinidad and Tobago
47.7
Barbados
47.0
Bahamas
43.3
Dominican Republic
40.3
Haiti
35.4
Saint Lucia
34.4
Grenada
30.7
Netherlands Antilles
30.6
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
30.3
Dominica
30.1
Antigua and Barbuda
28.5
Aruba
27.8
Cuba
24.6
Bermuda
20.2
Anguilla
19.8
Turks and Caicos Islands
15.4
Saint Kitts and Nevis
14.4
Cayman Islands
12.6
British Virgin Islands
9.3
Brazil
67.5
Argentina
62.8
Colombia
60.0
Chile
55.5
Venezuela
54.3
Peru
52.6
Costa Rica
50.3
Uruguay
49.8
El Salvador
46.3
23 45.0
Panama
Ecuador
44.8
Paraguay
44 8
Name
The user manual: tables
Table A – Variables, definitions and sources: 217 variables
Code
ACG
ACP
AIG
AIP
AIT
AKG
AKP
AKT
ALG
ALP
APA
APE
APM
APS
APT
APT0
APT1
ARG
ATG
AVG
AVP
AVT
AXD
AXD0
AXM
AXM0
AXX
AXX0
AYC
AYG
AYM
AYP
AYT
AYW
AYX
Description
Government consumption
Non-government consumption
Government gross capital formation
Non-government gross capital formation
Total gross capital formation
Government gross fixed capital formation
Non-government gross fixed capital formation
Total gross fixed capital formation
Government net lending
Non-government net lending
GDP in agriculture
GDP in extraction and utilities
GDP in industry
GDP in other sectors
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product (2005 prices)
Gross domestic product (constant 2005 ppp)
Government revenue
Government transfers
Government inventory changes
Non-government inventory changes
Total inventory changes
Domestic expenditure
Domestic expenditure (2005 prices)
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services (2005 prices)
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services (2005 prices)
Corporate profits
Government disposable income
Mixed income
Non-government disposable income
National disposable income
Income from employment
Net indirect taxes
Units
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
US$
% source
coverage
92.7
92.7
12.2
18.2
92.7
12.3
18.2
78.5
38.6
37.9
92.5
91.0
91.5
93.0
92.9
92.8
83.1
43.2
37.2
12.2
12.2
92.7
92.7
92.8
92.8
92.3
92.8
92.3
22.8
36.2
12.6
36.5
85.5
23.2
22.6
Sour
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
derived as AKG+AVG
derived as AKP+AVP
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
derived as AKT-AKG
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF Go
derived as BCA-ALG
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, Taiwan ND
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF Go
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF Go
OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
derived as AVT-AVG
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15, Taiwan NDC Statistical Data Book 2013
UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, OECD National accounts Mar-15, Eurostat National accounts Mar-15, IMF Go
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
derived as AYT-AYG
derived as APT+BIT
24
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
IMF World Economic Outlook Oct-14, UN Statistics Division National accounts main aggregates Aug-15
The user manual: how to download data
25
A visual guide
26
A visual guide
27
Part 3
Updating: Database Manager
28
Requirements
• SQL Server and SQL Server Management Studio
• Knowledge of statistics, national accounts and balance of payments
29
Package for manager (updating)
• The responsible for updating will receive a zip file containing:
– W82: main version of the database named containing all data and configurations used to build published editions.
– A technical guide: “WD Technical Guide.doc”
– A visual guide: “WD Visual Guide.doc”
– A description of the source data: “WD Source Data.doc”
– 4 excel files
•
•
•
•
WD82.xls
WD82Rep.xls
WD82SA.xls
WDReports.xls
30
W82: main version of database
Common
Source
Script
31
W82: main version of database
UNA
National Accounts
UCT
Trade
Load
tsv files
Configuration
files
Data files
32
WD Source Data.doc: downloading more than 65 files
33
Checking the source file layout: asdf.csv
34
Prep.xls: To check source data and configurations
Creating a new database
Executing scripts
37
Checking: using excel and SQL script
• 3 excel files
– WD82SA.xls
– WD82Rep.xls
– WDReports.xls
• 2 scripts
– Check
– Exec (by source)
38
WDReports.xls
summarise the results of results of processing in processing each source the common area area (tables ARP1‐8), (tables QRP1‐7) tables for the User Manual (MRP1‐7, MRPA and MRPB).
39
WD82Rep.xls
provides a convenient way to check series for individual variables and reporters in the common area
40
WD82SA.xls
to check details of individual observations in the last source area processed.
41
Publication: WD8X
Thanks
43
Bloc groupings (UN15)
• High income
– USA, Europe, Japan, E Asia High Income, Other Developed
• Middle income
– Central America, South America, CIS and Other
– West Asia, Africa Middle Income, China, Other East Asia
• Low income
– India, South Asia, Africa Low Income
Datos subjetivos
The GPM comprises
• In common with other macro‐models, the GPM comprises a databank of historical time series and a set of computer programs that organize the original data, estimate model parameters and generate scenarios. 45
UNCTAD
Trade and Development Report 2013
46
47
Alternative scenarios
• Three simulations are presented: – The baseline is a projection assuming that there will be neither policy changes nor shocks ahead. – In the two alternative scenarios, a reorientation of macroeconomic policy towards the adoption of measures that provide stronger support for an expansion of aggregate domestic demand is assumed. • These alternative scenarios assume a continuing path of economic convergence between countries, and incorporate the current macroeconomic constraints and potential of each economy or group of economies. In other words, they take into account their particular structural conditions, as well as the interactions between countries through trade and finance. • The main distinction between the two alternative scenarios is that in one scenario all countries would be involved in a demand‐driven policy effort (scenario A), while in the other scenario, only developing and emerging market economies would embark on this alternative macroeconomic policy stance (scenario B ).
48
49