Promoting Trade and Connectivity in LDCs: UNCTAD's perspective Taffere Tesfachew

3/16/2015
Promoting Trade and
Connectivity in LDCs:
UNCTAD's perspective
Taffere Tesfachew
Director, Division for Africa, Least Developed Countries
and Special Programmes, UNCTAD
High-level Asia-Pacific Policy Dialogue, Siam Reap, 4-6 March 2015
The role of trade
Export volumes
250
Volume, Index 2000 = 100
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
LDCs: Africa
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
LDCs: Asia
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Fast Growth since 2000
12
10
Target growth rate: 7%
8
6
4
2
0
2000
-2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Asian LDCs average growth: 6.3%
Islands LDCs average growth: 6.2%
-4
LDCs: Asia
LDCs: Islands
World average
LDCs:Africa
What countries produce and what they export matters
Export of Manufactured goods
70
60
% of total exports
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
LDCs: Africa
2006
2007
LDCs: Asia
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
LDCs: Islands
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The role of structural transformation
• Structural transformation and labour productivity growth
enable countries to move up the development ladder
• Structural transformation involves a movement of
resources from traditional to higher value-added and more
technology-intensive sectors
• Asian and Island LDCs are a success story:
1990-92
Asian LDCs
Agriculture
Industry
of which: Manufacturing
Services
Agriculture
Industry
of which: Manufacturing
Services
Islands LDCs
2000-2
35.2
18.5
11.7
46.3
32.8
13.1
7.2
54.1
28.2
24.3
12.8
47.4
28.5
15.4
8.1
56.2
2010-12
24.1
27.2
15.3
48.7
12.9
56.6
2.6
30.5
Decomposition of labor productivity growth
Asian and Islands LDCs grow faster on all dimensions
Direct productivity effect
Reallocation effect
Labor productivity growth rate (per cent)
250
200
150
100
50
0
ODCs
African LDCs and Haiti
Asian LDCs
Island LDCs
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Sectoral contributions to direct labor productivity growth
Industry and services matter more for Asian and island LDCs
Agriculture
Industry
Services
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
ODCs
African LDCs and Haiti
Asian LDCs
Island LDCs
Progress towards meeting selected MDGs
Poverty
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Achieved or on track
Bhutan
Achieved or on track
Cambodia
Achieved or on track
Kiribati
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Achieved or on track
Myanmar
Nepal
Achieved or on track
Sao Tome and Principe stagnation/reversal
Solomon Islands
Timor-Leste
Achieved or on track
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Yemen
Achieved or on track
undernourished
Low progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Medium progress
Low progress
enrolment in primary
education
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
medium progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
under five mortality
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Low progress
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Maternal mortality
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Medium progress
population without
drinking water
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Low progress
Medium progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
stagnation/reversal
Population without
sanitation facility
Low progress
Medium progress
Low progress
Medium progress
Low progress
Achieved or on track
Achieved or on track
Medium progress
Low progress
Low progress
Low progress
Medium progress
Medium progress
Medium progress
Source: Table 8, p. 33, UNCTAD, The Least Developed Countries Report 2014
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Graduation from LDC category
• Growth with transformation will enable some
Asia-Pacific LDCs to graduate early
• Graduate to what?
– Graduating countries need to sustainably
continue in their structural and economic
transformation
– Risks of middle-income trap
Promote trade and connectivity
• Building Productive capacities
– Regional approach will continue to be an important
source of growth
– Shifting from industrial policy "in the small" to industrial
policy "in the large": Picking possibles
– Continuos support to agricultural development
• Resiliance-building economic diversification for Island
LDCs
• Increase social and economic inclusion
• Development-friendly and conducive international
framework (New International Development
Architecture)
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Thank you!
[email protected]
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