CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions Housing Markets Conditions in 3 Quarter 2012

CBER-LIED
Report on Housing Market Conditions
CBER and Lied Institute Report
Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
Housing Markets Conditions in 3rd Quarter 2012
The charts and figures within the CBER-LIED Report on Housing Market Conditions
provide statistical information about the housing market in the Greater Las Vegas Area,
Clark County, and the United States. These figures reflect the data from numerous
sources and in-house calculations. Please contact the Lied Institute for Real Estate
Studies at (702) 895-3223 for questions about this report.
Stephen P. A. Brown, PhD
Professor of Economics
Director, Center for Business
and Economic Research
Luis Arturo Lopez
Data Analyst, Lied Institute
for Real Estate Studies
Housing Units and Vacancies in the Greater Las Vegas Area, by Housing Type: 2012Q3
Type of Housing Unita
Single-family detached
Estimated Units Estimated Vacant
MLS Listings in
in the Greater Units in the Greater Vacancy Rate the Greater Las
Las Vegas Areab Las Vegas Area
(%)
Vegas Areac
477,387
44,584
9.3%
17,123
Vacant MLS
Listingsc
6,414
MLS Vacancy
Rate (%)c
37.5%
Condominium
84,453
14,822
17.6%
2,105
990
47.0%
Townhouse
39,838
4,502
11.3%
1,226
499
40.7%
Apartment
169,331
20,307
12.0%
-
-
-
Total
771,009
84,215
10.9%
20,454
7,903
38.6%
Note: Calculations of the estimated units and vacant units are based on data from Clark County, Nevada and meter counts from NV Energy.
a
Excludes mobile homes and multiplex units.
Unit counts provided by Clark County, Nevada 2011 Population Estimates.
c
Multiple Listing Service data provided by Residential Resources.
b
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 1
Permits: A Future Market Indicator
Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit 1
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
3rd Quarter,
2011
Total: 1,063
4th Quarter,
2011
Total: 1,103
1st Quarter,
2012
Total: 1,669
2nd Quarter,
2012
Total: 2,338
3rd Quarter,
2012
Total: 1,882
Commercial Units
59
44
62
37
27
Multi-Family Units
103
171
539
324
243
Single-Family Units
901
888
1,068
1,977
1,612
Residential-Building Permits
All Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority1
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
3rd Quarter,
2011
Total: 1,004
4th Quarter,
2011
Total: 1,059
1st Quarter,
2012
Total: 1,607
Res Building Permits
442
407
510
2nd
Quarter,
2012
Total: 2,301
1,195
City of Las Vegas
184
291
224
442
294
City of North Las Vegas
159
116
94
270
152
Henderson
176
227
206
331
305
Boulder City
0
0
5
1
3
Mesquite
43
18
29
62
47
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
3rd Quarter,
2012
Total: 1,855
811
Page 2
Single-Family Housing Market: Details
MLS-Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing
Single-Family Residential Units2
18,100
$144,000
$142,500
17,900
$141,000
17,700
$139,500
$138,000
17,500
$136,500
17,300
$135,000
$133,500
17,100
$132,000
16,900
$130,500
$129,000
16,700
$127,500
16,500
April 2012
Available units (left axis)
Median list price (right axis)
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August
2012
September
2012
17,884
17,346
16,930
16,944
17,047
16,775
$132,945
$135,000
$135,000
$139,900
$139,990
$142,000
$126,000
Percent of Existing Single-Family Residential Units
Sold by Time on Market2
100%
90%
20.8%
18.9%
18.6%
18.7%
17.2%
16.5%
7.4%
6.8%
6.4%
6.2%
6.6%
7.1%
10.1%
9.7%
10.1%
9.8%
9.3%
17.3%
17.1%
16.0%
13.1%
14.1%
44.2%
47.0%
48.3%
49.0%
53.4%
53.1%
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012
September 2012
80%
70%
10.7%
60%
50%
16.9%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0-30 days
31-60 days
61-90 days
91-120 days
120+ days
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 3
Single-Family Housing Market: Details
Number of Single-Family Homes Sold, 3rd Quarter, 20123
Number of Sales Q3 2012
89165
89143
89085
89087
0 - 25
89084
89086
26 - 76
89131
89166
89149
77 - 151
89081
89031
89130
89115
89129
89032
89138
89030
89108
89134
152 - 201
202 - 251
89156
89128
89124
89106
89144
89145
89104
89117
89146 89102
89147
89103
89135
89161
89109
89169
89142
89121
89122
89119
89118
89148
252 - 422
89110
89101
89107
89120
89011
89014
89113
89004
89139
89015
89074
89123
89012
89178
89183
89141
89002
89052
89179
89005
89044
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 4
Single-Family Housing/Condo & Townhouse
Market: Details*
Inventory Ratios and Number of Single-Family Residential Units Sold2**
7.00
6,000
6.00
5,000
5.00
4,000
4.00
3,000
3.00
2,000
2.00
1,000
1.00
0.00
Absorption rate
5.62
5.08
5.27
5.86
August
2012
5.54
No. of units sold
3,185
3,413
3,214
2,890
3,076
2,666
New listings to sales
1.10
0.98
1.04
1.21
1.21
1.23
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
September
2012
6.29
0
Inventory Ratios and Number of Condo & Townhouse Units Sold2**
7.00
1,400
6.00
1,200
5.00
1,000
4.00
800
3.00
600
2.00
400
1.00
200
0.00
August
2012
6.26
September
2012
6.02
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
Absorption rate
5.19
5.17
5.08
5.51
No. of units sold
739
721
731
682
612
632
New listings to sales
1.05
1.05
1.14
1.22
1.49
1.27
0
*All condominium and townhouse entities consist of 1-4 units.
**Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Note: The figures display a graphical presentation of inventory movements. The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of listings at the
end of the month by the number of units sold during that same month. The absorption rate can be interpreted as the number of months needed to
deplete the inventory if no more units are listed and if the number of units sold remains constant. The new listings to sales ratio is calculated by
dividing the number of new listings in a month by the number of units sold during that same month.
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 5
Condo & Townhouse Market: Details
MLS Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing
Condo & Townhouse Units2
3,860
$70,500
3,840
$70,000
3,820
$69,500
3,800
$69,000
3,780
$68,500
3,760
$68,000
3,740
$67,500
3,720
$67,000
3,700
April 2012
Available units (left axis)
Median list price (right axis)
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August
2012
September
2012
3,836
3,728
3,713
3,758
3,830
3,805
$67,900
$69,000
$69,500
$69,900
$70,000
$70,000
$66,500
Percent Existing Condo & Townhouse Units
Sold by Time on Market2
100%
90%
80%
14.1%
6.1%
6.5%
12.2%
14.0%
15.5%
13.1%
5.1%
7.1%
7.2%
7.9%
19.1%
16.7%
16.1%
4.1%
6.7%
8.7%
9.3%
7.6%
7.7%
21.2%
18.4%
18.7%
49.3%
51.3%
52.9%
56.0%
55.6%
55.7%
April 2012
May 2012
June 2012
July 2012
August 2012
September 2012
70%
60%
16.1%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0-30 days
31-60 days
61-90 days
91-120 days
120+ days
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 6
Apartment Market: Details
Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
543
.
.
422
600
.
.
499
.
.
520
.
.
541
.
.
466
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
596
.
.
532
.
.
.
.
593
.
.
.
658
.
.
.
.
.
455
531
572
413
379
462
494
498
.
.
445
.
515
522
572
491
.
596
.
658
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
410
.
.
.
.
.
465
.
.
506
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
598
.
698
450
665
.
.
625
.
.
650
.
.
604
.
809
705
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
673
.
.
655
701
600
781
757
675
611
528
.
688
766
785
709
726
685
511
568
622
501
518
536
621
583
546
797
533
754
710
596
623
573
621
734
681
663
608
685
875
1028
846
830
574
896
752
631
767
862
749
571
754
551
825
775
650
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
788
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
650
.
.
956
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
828
AVERAGE RATES
665
663
854
800
756
679
556
.
.
840
.
838
775
818
606
607
678
595
544
598
638
568
595
.
564
858
712
602
698
620
790
1105
.
915
.
.
.
1098
935
935
599
.
737
592
820
996
976
.
860
649
1060
875
683
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
799
.
818
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
795
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
806
951
.
952
925
821
719
635
805
800
937
921
840
915
813
643
710
763
645
664
649
750
704
626
963
633
866
879
762
745
688
748
868
782
829
710
793
1112
1285
1043
1005
686
1054
918
773
905
990
999
688
982
701
1060
884
799
UNITS
Furnished
Unfurnished
3 Bed
Unfurnished
2 Bed/2 Bath
Furnished
Furnished
Unfurnished
Furnished
Furnished
89002
89005
89011
89012
89014
89015
89030
89031
89032
89052
89074
89081
89084
89086
89101
89102
89103
89104
89106
89107
89108
89109
89110
89113
89115
89117
89118
89119
89120
89121
89122
89123
89128
89129
89130
89131
89135
89138
89139
89141
89142
89144
89145
89146
89147
89148
89149
89156
89166
89169
89178
89183
METRO LV
UNIT RATES
2 Bed/1 Bath
1 Bed
Unfurnished
Studio
Unfurnished
ZIP CODE
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1021
863
996
1105
974
830
735
949
904
1131
1127
986
1082
927
695
787
897
749
829
826
898
695
758
1214
738
1040
995
898
897
796
895
1083
911
1028
900
1012
1224
1415
1185
1210
804
1254
1079
963
1012
1069
885
0
0
0
0
0
942
Rent
Vacancy
827
708
901
902
803
713
616
878
790
910
905
853
859
802
554
638
710
565
614
623
721
631
631
938
613
862
810
680
730
660
732
854
788
795
725
830
1059
1206
1008
995
672
1101
933
759
896
964
885
662
905
625
981
888
747
6.1%
.
10.1%
9.0%
8.7%
9.3%
10.4%
9.1%
8.6%
9.5%
9.5%
7.8%
8.1%
9.2%
12.0%
10.2%
8.9%
11.4%
10.6%
9.2%
10.4%
19.2%
8.7%
8.9%
10.2%
8.9%
8.5%
9.9%
10.1%
9.5%
9.0%
9.0%
8.4%
9.5%
6.6%
9.6%
8.1%
9.5%
9.7%
9.7%
11.3%
9.0%
8.5%
8.2%
8.4%
9.1%
9.8%
11.0%
8.9%
9.7%
9.1%
8.0%
9.5%
Total Units Vacant Units
354
417
887
1943
5626
2488
2349
1084
2217
2666
2758
1540
580
1107
9793
9019
6699
3176
4164
2728
8764
2778
3819
901
5952
7883
2736
13472
2217
6864
4946
4402
2390
1930
624
347
412
1362
1385
340
1646
480
1073
2261
3130
1839
1842
999
144
9151
539
3306
161529
22
.
89
174
492
230
244
98
191
254
262
120
47
102
1178
917
597
363
440
252
910
534
333
80
609
700
233
1330
225
655
445
395
200
183
41
33
33
130
134
33
185
43
91
185
263
167
181
110
13
889
49
263
15361
" . " Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes.
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 7
Apartment Market: Details
Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4
89165
89143
89085
89087
89084
89086
Rent Q3 2012
89131
89166
Data suppressed
89149
1 - 650
89081
89031
89130
89032
89138
751 - 850
89030
89108
89134
89156
89128
851 - 950
89106
89144
89110
89101
89107
89145
951 - 1210
89104
89117
89146 89102
89147
89103
89135
89124
651 - 750
89115
89129
89109
89169
89121
89122
89161
89119
89120
89118
89148
89142
89011
89014
89113
89004
89015
89074
89123
89139
89012
89178
89183
89002
89141
89052
89179
89005
89044
89165
89143
89085
89087
89084
89086
89131
89166
Vacancy Q3 2012
89149
Data suppressed
89081
89031
89130
89032
89138
9.01 - 10.00
89030
89108
89134
89156
89128
10.01 - 11.00
89106
89144
89145
89110
89101
89107
89104
89117
89146 89102
89135
89147
89124
0.01 - 9.00
89115
89129
89109
89169
13.01 - 20.00
89122
89119
89118
89148
12.01 - 13.00
89121
89103
89161
11.01 - 12.00
89142
89120
89011
89014
89113
89004
89139
89015
89074
89123
89012
89178
89183
89141
89002
89052
89179
89005
89044
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 8
Local Population and Unemployment Indicators
Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses5
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Quarterly
Year-to-Date
3rd
Quarter,
2010
14,604
4th
Quarter,
2010
12,783
1st
Quarter,
2011
14,257
2nd
Quarter,
2011
14,645
3rd
Quarter,
2011
16,450
4th
Quarter,
2011
13,882
1st
Quarter,
2012
16,057
2nd
Quarter,
2012
16,450
3rd
Quarter,
2012
17,612
38,365
51,148
14,257
28,902
45,352
59,234
16,057
32,507
50,119
Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories5
35%
Unemployment6
Las Vegas
Q3 2011
13.9%
Q4 2011
13.5%
Q1 2012
12.8%
Q2 2012
12.2%
Q3 2012
11.9%
United States
Q3 2011
9.1%
Q4 2011
8.7%
Q1 2012
8.3%
Q2 2012
8.2%
Q3 2012
8.1%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Percent from California
Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older
2nd
Quarter,
2011
31.5%
3rd
Quarter,
2011
30.3%
4th
Quarter,
2011
30.6%
1st
Quarter,
2012
31.9%
2nd
Quarter,
2012
31.8%
3rd
Quarter,
2012
31.5%
14.3%
14.4%
16.0%
15.1%
16.0%
15.6%
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 9
Housing Market: Regional Comparisons
Case Shiller® Index in Selected Western Cities7
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
3rd Quarter,
2011
4th Quarter,
2011
1st Quarter,
2012
2nd Quarter,
2012
3rd Quarter,
2012
Las Vegas, NV
94.38
90.81
90.44
93.11
95.55
Phoenix, AZ
99.38
100.20
105.70
112.79
117.87
San Diego, CA
152.39
151.27
151.33
153.54
155.88
Los Angeles, CA
166.87
162.98
162.19
166.37
170.55
Quarterly Change of Case Shiller® Index7
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
3rd Quarter,
2011
4th Quarter,
2011
1st Quarter,
2012
2nd Quarter,
2012
3rd Quarter,
2012
Las Vegas, NV
-2.32%
-3.78%
-0.40%
2.95%
2.62%
Phoenix, AZ
-1.93%
0.82%
5.49%
6.70%
4.50%
San Diego, CA
-1.78%
-0.74%
0.04%
1.46%
1.52%
Los Angeles, CA
-1.79%
-2.33%
-0.48%
2.58%
2.51%
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 10
National Housing Market Conditions8
Latest
quarter
Previous
quarter
Same quarter % change from
% change
previous year previous quarter from last year
HOUSING PRODUCTION
Permits
Starts
Under construction
Completions
Manufactured (mobile) home shipments
834
786
497
679
53
756
736
475
630
55
629
614
416
617
51
10.37
6.84
4.78
7.67
-2.44
32.52
28.01
19.46
9.99
3.90
377
144
5
4683
2373
6
242900
287900
29200
185533
233767
189
187
26600
67
1032
48
63000
37.3
38.7
45.7
29.3
362
143
5
4537
2447
6
238700
282700
282700
180933
229833
187
184
15800
60
1065
48
61300
27.0
28.7
32.7
21.3
298
164
7
4247
3023
9
223500
263000
276200
169233
217567
182
180
13000
51
1037
47
61200
14.7
14.7
19.0
12.0
3.96
0.70
-4.17
3.23
-3.00
-5.67
1.76
1.84
-89.67
2.54
1.71
0.92
1.45
68.35
11.67
-3.10
-0.69
2.77
38.27
34.88
39.80
37.50
26.26
-11.99
-29.59
10.28
-21.50
-28.52
8.68
9.47
-89.43
9.63
7.45
4.03
4.20
104.62
31.37
-0.48
1.41
2.94
154.55
163.64
140.35
144.44
3.54
2.65
2.83
167748
115423
66005
48933
40232
3.80
2.76
3.04
156463
110165
64537
48860
33392
4.31
2.91
3.49
129034
94662
70245
32624
25034
-6.76
-3.86
-6.91
7.21
4.77
2.27
0.15
20.48
-17.87
-8.92
-18.83
30.00
21.93
-6.04
49.99
60.71
15776
388
2.5
15586
373
2.4
15163
336
2.2
1.22
4.08
2.82
4.04
15.41
10.93
132839
114695
75076
8.6
132718
114200
74832
8.6
132353
113548
75251
9.8
0.09
0.43
0.33
0.00
0.37
1.01
-0.23
-12.24
HOUSING MARKET
New homes sold
New homes for sale
Month's supply of new homes
Existing homes sold
Existing homes for sale
Month's supply of existing homes
Median new home price
Average new home price
Constant house quality new home price
Median existing home price
Average existing home price
Composite housing affordability index
Fixed-rate housing affordability index
Apartments completed
Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months
Median asking rent
Manufactured (mobile) home placements
Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars)
Builders housing market index
Builders current sales activity
Builders future sales expectations
Builders prospective buyer traffic
HOUSING FINANCE
Conventional fixed-rate 30 year
Conventional ARMs
Conventional fixed-rate 15 year
FHA applications received
FHA total endorsements
FHA purchase endorsements
VA guaranties
PMI certificates
HOUSING INVESTMENT
GDP (in billions of dollars)
Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars)
RFI percent of GDP
HOUSING INVENTORY
All housing units
Occupied units
Owner occupied
Rental vacancy rate
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 11
Housing Market: Case-Shiller® Home Price Index
Case-Shiller® Home Price Index: January 1987 to September 20127
250
Index: January 2000 = 100
200
U.S. (10-City Composite)
150
Las Vegas long-run
'equilibrium' trend based
on Jan. 1987 to Sept.
2000
100
Las Vegas, NV
50
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
0
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices http://www.standardandpoors.com/
Sources:
1Local building permit-issuing agencies and State of the Cities Data Systems by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
2Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes
sold by local builders.
3CBER/Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions–RealQuest data base on new and existing recorded home
sales.
4CBER in-house apartment survey.
5Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles.
6The Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices: Home Price Index Levels - Seasonally Adjusted, November 2012 (http://www.standardpoors.com).
8U.S. Housing Market Conditions 3rd Quarter, 2012 (http://www.huduser.org/portal/periodicals/ushmc/ushmc.html).
Note: As of the 1st Quarter, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect
only single-family housing.
©Copyright
2012 Report on Housing-Market Conditions
Readers may reproduce the publication’s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for
Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Las Vegas Housing Market Conditions, Volume 64, 3rd Quarter, 2012
The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Page 12