European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors

European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors
Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change
Nicola Gallinaro
Riva del Garda, September 8th 2011
Outline
Definizioni e termini chiave
Key terms
Global figures
Contenuti
according to
EULAKES project
Considerazioni generali
Il progetto
CLIMATE
“average weather” described in
terms of the mean and variability
of relevant variables over a 30year period
CLIMA “tempo medio” descritto in
termini di media e variabilità di
variabili rilevanti in un periodo
superiore ai 30 anni
definitions according to the IPCC
CLIMATE CHANGE
Statistically significant variation
in either the mean state of the
climate or in its variability,
persisting for an extended period
(decades or longer)
CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO
Variazione statisticamente significativa
dello stato medio del clima o della sua
variabilità, persistente per un periodo
esteso di tempo (decenni o più)
Climate change may be due to natural internal processes, external forcing, or
to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of atmosphere or in
land use
CLIMATE PROJECTION
A potential future evolution of
the climate
Proiezione climatica
Potenziale futura evoluzione del clima
According to IPCC
Is not a prediction or forecast, is one of many plausibile future states
Based on scenarios of future socio economics and technological development
that may or may not be realized
ADAPTATION
Adjustment in natural or human
systems to a new or changing
climatic environment, whether in
response to actual or expected
climate change, which moderates
harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities
Adattamento
Aggiustamenti nei sistemi naturali o
umani a nuove condizioni climatiche,
per moderare i danni o per accresce
le opportunità, in risposta ad effettivi
o attesi cambiamenti climatici
According to IPCC
Can be anticipatory or reactive, private or public
GLOBAL CLIMATE (Change) FIGURES
“Warming of the climate is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of
increases in global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice, and rising
global mean sea level."
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change
(IPCC), Summary for Policymakers, Feb. 2007
Il riscaldamento climatico è
inequivocabile, essendo ora evidente
dalle osservazioni sull’incremento della
temperatura media dell’aria e degli
oceani, lo scioglimento di nevi e
ghiacciai e dall’innalzamento medio del
livello del mare.
Temperature trend
Precipitation trend
OTHER GENERAL IMPACTS
Very likely heat waves and heavy
precipitation will continue to
become more frequent
High confidence (8/10 chance) of
• Warming of lakes and rivers
• Earlier occurrence of spring time
events
• Poleward and upward shifts in plant
and animal ranges
Molto probabilmente ondate di calore e
forti precipitazioni diventeranno più
frequenti (eventi estremi)
E’ ipotizzabile (8/10):
•Riscaldamento di laghi e fiumi
•Anticipo degli eventi primaverili
•Spostamento verso i poli e verso
quote maggiori degli areali di
specie animali e vegetali
THE PROJECT VISION
A CALL TO ACTION
a coordinating platform for
enhancing the value of lakes and
basins environmental governance
in a climate change environment
La visione progettuale
Un richiamo all’agire
Una piattaforma di
ccordinamento per
innalzare l’afficacia della
governance ambientale
dei bacini lacustri in un
contesto di cambiamento
climatico
CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAKE BASINS
European Lakes are going to
face environmental problems
related to climate change
I bacini lacustri europei potrebbero
essere progressivamente interessati da
problemi ambientali legati ai
cambiamenti climatici
Climate change looms as an additional
threat on the regions economy and
ecology by changing climate patterns
and compounding the negative effects of
current environmental problems
Il cambiamento climatico incombe come
un’ulteriore minaccia sull’economia
regionale e sugli equilibri ecologici
sommandosi all’effetto degli attuali
problemi ambientali
The EULAKES network
Lake Charzykowskie
53° 46’ N 17° 30’ E
altitude: 120 m a.s.l.
max. depth: 30.5 m
mean depth: 9.8 m
area = 13 km2
volume = 0.13 km3
CENTRAL EUROPE REGIONS
47° 38’ N 16° 41 E
altitude: 115 m a.s.l.
max. depth: 2.2 m
mean depth: 0.8 m
area = 178 km2
volume = 0.25 km3
PL
A
Lake Neusiedler
H
Lake Garda
45° 42’ N 10° 43’ E
altitude: 65 m a.s.l.
max. depth: 350 m
mean depth: 133 m
area = 368 km2
volume = 49.03 km3
I
Lake Balaton
46° 50’ N 17° 44 E
altitude: 105 m a.s.l.
max. depth: 12.2 m
mean depth: 3.1 m
area = 593 km2
volume = 1.90 km3
THE PARTNERSHIP
PL
A
I
H
PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION
Lake Garda,
Lake Balaton,
Lake Neusiedler
lake Charzykowskie
have unique landscape and great
biodiversity.
At the same time the
economics of the places are
highly dependent from
Recreation and Tourism.
PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES
Understanding and
responding to climate change
represents one of the more
important, complex and
challenging issues facing the
sustainable managemement
of lake basin.
Conoscere e e rispondere al
cambiamenti climatici è una delle più
importanti e complesse sfide a cui deve
fare fronte la gestione sostenibile dei
bacini lacustri.
PROJECT
GENERAL
To achieve
the general
objectives, theOBJECTIVES
project will:
(i) support the development and implementation of long-term
ecological researches
(ii) Integrating scientiphical knowledges in lake planning and
management in order to enhance ecological approaches, mitigation
and adaptation capability,
(ii) promote the sustainable management of the lakes natural resources
through innovative multi-stakeholder platforms
(iii) build awareness among local
communities and different sectors;
(iv) improve collaboration among Central
European lake regions
PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
The specific project objectives are focus on the following key issues:
- Vulnerability assessment with regard to climate change and other
environmental stressors (identification of key environmental stressors and
risks)
- Mitigation and adaptation strategies to support decision makers
and basin planning (analysis of existing lake management plans and
strategies
- Development of a catalogue of potential mitigation and adaptation
measures
- Integration of methods and experience at local and European scale;
- Local pilot actions
- Environmental governance
- Communication and dissemination
THE PROJECT ACTIONS
The technical and scientifical
WORKPACKAGES (WP)
IMPLEMENTATION OF
EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS
Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a
changing environment
Main contents:
•LAKE ECOLOGICAL HISTORY CHARACTERISATION
definition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts and restoration
targets for each lake studied describing secular scale history under environmental changing
conditions)
•SURVEY OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS
•DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A SET OF TOOLS: EULAKES
MODEL
EULAKES MODEL
A WEB GIS tool to facilitate analysis and visualisation of data
and information
The scientific innovation as immediate support to a conscious
territorial planning: the definition of joint tools of research and
monitoring is useful to face common problems
VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Improving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake
ecosystems
Main contents:
• VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Identification and assesment of main stressors and potential impacts.
Creation of vulnerability and risk maps for the partner lake regiuons
• EMERGING RISK
Impacts on lake idrology and water quality, analisys of new invasive
species, describe shore zone functionality status using SFI index
VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (second part)
Main contents:
• CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
SIMULATION AND EXPLORATION
Climate simulations runs for the alpine area with CLM )10
km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC
• SCENARIO IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND
ADAPTATION/MITIGATION STRATEGIES
Impacts of climate changes scenarios, mitigation and
adaptation measures and strategies, multicriteria
(environmental, economic, social, etc,) assesment,
defining the environmental impact of different scenarios
Maps of simulation on climate changing and state of water
PILOT ACTIONS
Using advanced case studies to support the definition of
the common approach
• The role of agriculture in a climate change scenarius (A)
• Status and future dynamics of new species
(H)
• Cyanobacteria and water quality: the effects on tourism and potable
water (I)
• Sludge permeable and heavy metals (PL)
Enhancing the differences in every lake to agree on a common transnational approach for protection
The GOVERNANCE WP
JOINT TRANSNATIONAL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
A NEW MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE (WP6)
Mitigation and adaptation strategy to support decision makers and
environmental governance
Main contents:
• Development of guidelines for lake and basin management
• Building and management governance platform (stakeholder
participation)
A platform at local and international level based on innovative and European
governance models
The project aims to create a debate and coordination
platform on environmental lake governance
The EULAKES path
Increasing utility
Decision
Knowledge and
understanding
Information
Data
od
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Increasing resources and
knowledge requirements
The WHO and WHY of EULAKES
USERS/STAKEHOLDERS
- research scientist
- Resources managers – environmental agengies at all
levels
- Non governamental organizations
- students and young generations
- General pubblic
RESOURCES TO PROTECT
Living resources (biodiversity)
Human health
Habitat protection/preservation
Chemical integrity
The WHAT of EULAKES
POTENTIAL ISSUES FOR NEXT EULAKES DEBATES
ARE WAITING FOR US
- Ecological and human health effects of persistent toxic
chemicals
- Non indigenous species invasions, spread, and
ecosystems effects;
- Shorezones quantity and quality protection
- protection of drinking water intakes from chemical and
microbiological contamination
- Eutrophication
FROM THE LAKES ……………
TO THE BASINS ……………
KEEP THEM GREAT !!!
FUNDING
•Project funded by the
European Territorial
Cooperation Central
Europe programme
•Budget: 2.910.799 euro
•Period:
1st April 2010 – 31st March 2013
•9 partners from 4
countries are involved
Let’s work together with
www.eulakes.eu
Topic
Description
Wikipedia - Global Warming
Earth Institute - Columbia University
Introduction to
Global Warming
Site Link
Global Warming - Wikipedia
The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
change (IPCC)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NASA, Goddard Institute of Space
Science
NASA GISS: NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies
Real Climate
RealClimate Climate Science
NASA - Goddard Institute of Space
Studies - Datasets and Images
Data @ NASA GISS Dataset Index
US Dept. of Commerce - National
Climatic Data Center : Climate
Reconstructions
NOAA Paleoclimatology Program
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center (CDIA)
CDIA - Trends Online
Tiempo Climate Portal
Tiempo Climate Portal, Data
Climate Research Unit (CRU)
Data from CRU
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
change (IPCC)
IPCC Data Distribution Centre
US Dept. Of Energy - Energy
Information Administration (EIA)
EIA - Energy Emissions Data & Environmental
Analysis of Energy Data
Climate Science
Blogs
Open Mind
Link to Excel File that reproduces
Tamino's natural Variation Post
Open Mind
Presentations,
Articles
Dr. James E Hansen, Director, NASA
GISS:
Climate Data Sites
All Articles: Dr. James E. Hansen