The GIFINT ANN algorithms

Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario, INAF, Roma.
GIFINT Wp100 objectives
Develop state of the art ANN algorithms to forecast
Dst and AE based on ACE Solar Wind data. This
has been done. In particular, for Dst a new
algorithm has been developed which makes use of
L1 IMF data only.
Build a service based on ANN to forecast Dst and
AE based on ACE Solar Wind data. This has been
done.
GIFINT users
• Teledife (Italian Ministry of Defense),
• Protezione Civile.
GIFINT, WP100 Report.
ESWW2, Estec, 14-18 Nov 2005
Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario, INAF, Roma.
User needs
• To be aware in real time of the occurrence of geomagnetic storms through a simple
and reliable means of forecasting the Dst (Disturbed storm time) index.
• The user needs refer to the evaluation of the feasibility and usefullness of the service,
which does not necessarily imply the use of the service products in routine operation.
• It is preferrable to use forecast Dst for two reasons:
•
The “near real time” Dst is available on the Internet with a delay of 2-3 hours.
•
The “near real time” Dst is not very accurate.
GIFINT, WP100 Report.
ESWW2, Estec, 14-18 Nov 2005
Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario, INAF, Roma.
Evaluation of user satisfaction
The new GIFINT Dst algorithm substantially improves with respect
to existing algorithms. As it relies on L1 IMF only, it can be run also
when no plasma data are available, e.g. when the plasma
instruments are blind due to a large SEP event.
Both the users have evaluated the GIFINT WP100 products and
found them to respond to their specified needs.
This has been done from time to time, with the objective of testing
availability and accuracy of the products.
The possibility of the routine use of the WP100 products in the
future is under consideration.
The final assessment of the user satisfaction is under way.
GIFINT, WP100 Report.
ESWW2, Estec, 14-18 Nov 2005
Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario, INAF, Roma.
Business plan and sustainability
The ANN forecasts can be displayed on the GIFINT page at least until the end of 2006.
The service can continue after that time at the costs specified below.
GIFINT has obtained financial support from ASI to continue the project and further
develop it until 2007.
Needs for running the service as is.
• Continuous availability, free of charge, of the ACE data through the ACE ftp server.
• Continuous availability of the IFSI connection to the Internet. This is paid for by
INAF for the whole institute (hidden cost).
• 4month/person per year for the service maintenance: 24000 Euro per year.
• 1 PC for running the service + 1 spare PC
• 1 PC for data storage + 1 spare PC
• Rate of replacement of PC’s: 1 every two years, i.e 500 Euro per year.
GIFINT, WP100 Report.
ESWW2, Estec, 14-18 Nov 2005
Istituto di Fisica dello Spazio Interplanetario, INAF, Roma.
Perspectives for improvements
The near future
• Improve the ANN algorithm for AE. This is under way.
The far future (dreams?)
• Run an ANN prediction code on real time on the DPU of a L1 Monitor. This would allow a
reduction of the delay between the forecast and its delivery to the users (if the transmission
of the forecast from the s/c ground station to the web page is done efficiently). This could be
done for any L1 monitor which will replace ACE.
• Fly a solar wind monitor closer to the Sun (700 RE ?) along the Sun-Earth line. This is not
easy, as one would need a continuous active control of the S/C orbit.
GIFINT, WP100 Report.
ESWW2, Estec, 14-18 Nov 2005