CRESCO SPIII

CRESCO SPIII
Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche
Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze
SANDRO BOLOGNA
[email protected]
CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting
Portici, 23 Ottobre, 2006
Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse
– Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete
elettrica, …)
– Informazione &
Comunicazione (reti
informatiche e di
telecomunicazione
– Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree,
navali, ferroviarie,….)
– Servizi (reti idriche,
sanitarie,..)
Mutato contesto socioeconomico
Financial Services
Telecommunication
Health Care
Public Utilities
Infrastrutture verticalmente
integrate. Sistemi
praticamente autonomi con
limitati punti di contatto con le
altre infrastrutture
Infrastrutture fortemente
integrate ed interdipendenti
e che si basano su un
ambiente condiviso
UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY
The UCTE
System:
2100 Twh
delivered
to 400 ML
people
EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006
NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES
Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure
Organisational
Layer
Intra-dependency
Cyber
Layer
Inter-dependency
Physical
Layer
Three Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure
Electrical Power Operators
Independent System Operator
for electricity planning and
transmission
Intra-dependency
Inter-dependency
Control and supervisory
hardware/software components
(Scada/EMS systems)
Electrical Components
Telecomunication
Infrastructure
generators, transformers, breakers,
connecting cables etc
National Electrical Power
Transmission Infrastructure
Foreign Electrical
Transmission
Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport
System Infrastructure
US CANADA BLACK-OUT
Power System Outage Task Force Interim Report
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model
and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical
Transmission
Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and
Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication
Infrastructure
Topology Model and
Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power
Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport
System Infrastructure
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model
and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical
will make
use of the latest resultsTransmission
on complex
Riconfig and Optimiz
Model
Infrastructure
processes and links in the net
systems theory to analyse the network’s
property and to understand the emergent
behaviors that can take place in the network
State Machine Model and
Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication
Infrastructure
Topology Model and
Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power
Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport
System Infrastructure
COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH
Recent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global
properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or
impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts.
(Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…)
Poisson distribution
Random Network
Power-law distribution
Scale-free Network
Present limitations of Complex
Systems approach
Network as a static graph
Given a network with N nodes and L links

Create a graph with statistically identical topology
RESULT: model the static network topology
PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems!
Evolving networks
OBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics
METHOD :
• identify the processes that contribute to the network topology
•develop dynamical models that capture these processes
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1
Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà
di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e
Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed
Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model
and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical
Transmission
makeModel
use of complementary risk
assessment
Riconfig andwill
Optimiz
Infrastructure
methods
to estimate the probability
of unwanted
processes and
links in the net
incident that may lead to undesired states
State Machine Model and
Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication
Infrastructure
Topology Model and
Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power
Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport
System Infrastructure
Modelling tools for dependability analysis
Model checking
Bayesian networks
Fault Tree
Extended Petri Nets
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2
Università degli Studi di Lecce,
Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa
Paola Vocca
Università degli Studi del Piemonte
Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica,
Prof. Andrea Bobbio
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency Model
and will
Simulation
make use of analytical approaches to
all the links with the other nets
optimize the network in the presence of different
type of constraints
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical
Transmission
Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and
Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication
Infrastructure
Topology Model and
Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power
Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport
System Infrastructure
X
X
RO
Distribution Network
MI
X
X
TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3
Università degli Studi di Salerno,
Dipartimento di Ingegneria
dell'Informazione e Matematica
Applicata: Prof. Ciro D’Apice
Università degli Studi di Palermo,
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica,
Prof. Antonio Chella
CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities
Interdependency
Modelthe organization and the operator
will model
and Simulation
all the links with
the other nets
behaviour
to study organizational vulnerability
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical
Transmission
Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and
Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication
Infrastructure
Topology Model and
Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power
Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport
System Infrastructure
SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING
APPROACH:
Human Errors
Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI)
Human component
Cyber component
Physical component
Organisation
Technological Grid
Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it
Author: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4
Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor
Vergata”, Dipartimento di Ingegneria
dell’Impresa, Prof. Lucio Bianco
ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di
Ricerca sull’Elaborazione Cognitiva nei
Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa
Marta Olivetti Belardinelli
CRESCO SPIII –
will establish probable correlation among
different networks
to understand
cascading
Multilayer
Modelling
Activities
failures or unknown and emergent behaviours
Interdependency Model
and Simulation
all the links with the other nets
Organizational Model
Organization, operators behaviour
Foreign Electrical
Transmission
Infrastructure
Riconfig and Optimiz Model
processes and links in the net
State Machine Model and
Analysis
processes and links in the net
Telecomunication
Infrastructure
Topology Model and
Analysis
nodes and arcs in the net
National Electrical Power
Transmission Infrastructure
Oil/Gas Transport
System Infrastructure
Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies
Fuels, Lubricants
Fuel Transport
Shipping
Fuel for Generators,
,Lubricants
SCADA
Communications
Oil
Water for
Production
Cooling
Emission reduction
Power for Pump
& Lift Stations
Control Systems
Water
Transportation
Transportation
SCADA
Communications
Fuel Transport
Shipping
Fuels, Lubricants
Power for pumping
Stations, Storage
Control Systems
Water for Cooling,
Emission reduction
Power for
Signalling,
Switchers
Electric
Power
Power for
Switchers
Fuel for
Generators,
Heat
SCADA
Communications
Natural
Gas
Power for compressors
Storage, Control Systems
Fuel for Generators,
Water for Cooling,
Telecom
SCADA
Communications
Transportation
Source:
“Critic. Infrastruct
Dependencies”
Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly
2002
PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5
Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata",
Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e
Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci
C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per
l’Informatica e l’Automazione Industriale, Prof.
Giorgio Ventre
Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma,
Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola
(Università degli Studi del Sannio,
Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo)
National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center