Risultati dal progetto SHARE

Retirement Patterns in Europe:
Evidence from SHARE
Agar Brugiavini
22 November 2006
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche – Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
SHARE: Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe:
„50+ in Europa“
Reddito e ricchezza personale
 Politiche sociali
Parenti, vicini,
condizioni abitative
Processo
dinamico 
dati
longitudinali
Salute fisica e
mentale, disabilità,
mortalità
2
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche – Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
SHARE è un indagine condotta contemporaneamente in
numerosi Paesi europei: 11 nel 2004, 14 nel 2006.
E’ finanziata prevalentemente dall’Unione Europea, ma
anche dal National Institute of Aging americano
Raccoglie informazioni su salute, rapporti interpersonali,
reddito ed aspettative degli individui sopra i cinquanta
anni di età –
E SEGUE QUESTI INDIVIDUI NEL TEMPO!
Il coordinatore europeo è Axel Börsch-Supan,
3
SE
UK
*
IR
USA
SP
Korea
Japan
DK
NL
BE DE
PL
CZ
FR CH AT
*
*
IT
GR
Prima fase 2004: 27.000 individui
Israel
Cosa abbiamo finora
Imparato da SHARE
• Molti sono in buona salute:
La salute in Europa
uomini 60.5% buona o molto buona;
donne 52.5%
Un terzo degli ultra-ottantenni non ha problemi di salute o malattie
croniche!
• Abbiamo misurato la salute in tanti modi diversi – anche con test fisici
Men
Women
• Perché queste differenze fra Nord e Sud Europa? Reddito? Servizi
sanitari? Stili diversi di risposta?
Cosa abbiamo finora
Imparato da SHARE
Salute e fattori socioeconomici
Chi ha meno istruzione o minor reddito ha maggiore probabilità
di essere in cattiva salute
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche – Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
Il modulo EP (Employment and Pensions) in
SHARE
- Posizione nel mercato del lavoro (self-reported), ma
poi si chiede se ha lavorato nell’ultimo mese
- Ai lavoratori: tutte le info sul lavoro corrente (inclusi
redditi, soddisfazione etc..)
- Ai pensionati o disoccupati: info sui redditi e sul “past
job”. Motivi di uscita dal mercato del lavoro
- A tutti: redditi attesi da pensione
7
Self-reported Economic Activity by Age
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
Self-reported Economic Activity by Age
50
60
employed
70
age of respondent
retired
80
90
allother
Distribution of Economically Active Individuals
by Gender and Age-class
Women working
0
0
.2
.2
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
.8
1
1
Men working
SE
DK
DE
50-54
NL
BE
FR
55-59
CH
AT
60-64
ES
IT
GR
65+
SE
DK
DE
50-54
NL
BE
FR
55-59
CH
AT
60-64
ES
IT
GR
65+
9
Distribution of Retirees
Distribution of Retirees for Northern Countries
0
0
.2
.2
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
.8
1
1
Distribution of Retirees for Mid-European Countries
nl
70
dk
75
80
50
55
60
be
65
age of respondent
at
de
70
fr
75
80
ch
.8
1
Distribution of Retirees for Southern Countries
.6
se
65
age of respondent
.4
60
.2
55
0
50
50
55
60
65
age of respondent
es
it
70
75
gr
80
10
Average Age Receiving a Pension for the First Time
WOMEN
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
SE
DK
DE
NL
BE
FR
public and private old age and early retirement pension
CH
AT
ES
IT
GR
disability and invalidity/incapacity pension
MEN
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
SE
DK
DE
NL
BE
FR
public and private old age and early retirement pension
CH
AT
ES
IT
GR
disability and invalidity/incapacity pension
11
Economic Activity and Physical Health
.4
.2
0
0
.2
.4
.6
Economic activity of 'functioning' respondents
.6
Economic activity of 'healthy' respondents
SE
DK
worker
DE
NL
BE
FR
retired but work
CH
AT
ES
retired
IT
GR
allother
SE
DK
worker
DE
NL
BE
FR
retired but work
CH
AT
ES
retired
IT
GR
allother
12
Importanza dell’ambiente di lavoro
Prevalgono condizioni
di lavoro di alta
qualità
Prevalgono
condizioni di lavoro
di qualità media
Prevalgono condizioni
di lavoro di qualità
bassa
Retirement: a Relief or a Concern?
p
SE
DK
DE
NL
FR
BE
CH
AT
IT
ES
GR
Relief
Concern
Neither
Both
14
Reasons for Retirement - Women
WOMEN 60-64
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
SE
DK
DE
Eligible
NL
BE
Early-preretirement
FR
CH
Health-problems
AT
ES
Enjoy life
Other
IT
GR
15
Reasons for Retirement - Men
MEN AGED 60-64
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
SE
DK
DE
Eligible
NL
BE
Early-preretirement
FR
CH
Health-problems
AT
ES
Enjoy life
IT
Other
GR
16
Motivation for econometric model
 Retirement (and labor force participation)
decisions may depend on a number of
factors, including health
 On top of individual determinants
(preferences and socio-economic conditions)
take into account the role of institutions
17
Theoretical Framework
Following Grossman (1972a, 1972b, 2000) and Currie
and Madrian (2000), assume individuals derive utility
from consumption, leisure and also, directly from
health. They maximize the following intertemporal utility
function.
Implications:
 Health is valued by individuals both for its own sake
and because being sick is assumed to take time away
from market and non-market activities.
 The stock of health today depends on past investments
in health.
 Non-market time is an input into both health production
and the production of other valued non-market goods
(e.g., leisure activities).
18
Theoretical Framework
 Hence individuals maximize utility taking into
account the investment in health (optimal path for
marginal product of health capital)
 This model can be solved to yield a conditional
labor supply function in which labor supply depends
on the endogenous health variable
 From an empirical point of view, the main
implication of the model is that health must be
treated as an endogenous choice.
19
Econometric Evidence
 Model probability of being retired derived from FOC
 Probability [being Retired]
– Dependent variable:
– Retired indicator = 1 if (self-reported as) currently retired
–
0 otherwise
– Sample: Workers and Pensioners - Aged 50-70
 IV-probit
– First show Probit analysis – then show IV-Probit
– Note: country-age and country*age variability does not exhaust
explanatory power of other variables
20
Econometric Evidence
 Basic regressors common to all models
 With country dummies (Germany dummy
omitted)
 Measure of Social Security Wealth (SSW):
SSWREL: SSW/total household income
 IADL Index for health (cumulative number of
failures in instrumental activities and
activities of DL)
21
Econometric Evidence
 Instrumental variables
– Social Security Wealth (SSW) Instrumented
with occupational indicators
– IADL – index In line with the theory
highlighted we make use for IADL of
retrospective questions (“ever smoked”, “ever
been depressed”, age of parents at death or if
parent survived a target age), material inputs
for health (vigorous physical activity) plus
subjective survival probability.
22
Table 8. Probit Estimates - Marginal Effects
(1)
(2)
Respondent is male
-0.138
-0.150
(0.014)
(0.016)
Respondent is married
0.172
0.171
(0.021)
(0.021)
Years of schooling
-0.002
-0.002
(0.001)
(0.001)
(Age/10)
-3.038
(0.414)
(Age/10) squared
0.336
(0.035)
Respondent is 60
0.019
0.475
(0.024)
(0.022)
Respondent is 65
0.151
0.551
(0.037)
(0.012)
SSWrel
0.062
0.070
(0.002)
(0.003)
IADL-index
0.016
0.018
(0.002)
(0.002)
age dummies
interaction dummies
(country*age)
yes
yes
23
Table 8. Probit Estimates - Marginal Effects , cont
(1)
(2)
(0.027)
(0.069)
DK
0.078
0.231
(0.028)
(0.053)
NL
-0.172
-0.162
(0.030)
(0.071)
BE
0.086
0.143
(0.034)
(0.073)
FR
0.102
0.104
(0.024)
(0.056)
CH
-0.169
-0.175
(0.041)
(0.103)
AT
0.292
0.366
(0.016)
(0.036)
ES
-0.080
0.017
(0.041)
(0.089)
IT
0.217
0.246
(0.020)
(0.051)
GR
0.192
0.355
(0.023)
(0.040)
age dummies
interaction dummies
(country*age)
yes
24
yes
Table 9. Instrumental Variable Estimates - IV Probit
Respondent is male
Respondent is married
Years of schooling
(Age/10)
(Age/10) squared
Respondent is 60
Respondent is 65
SSWrel
IADL-index
Coeff.
M.E.
-0.256
(0.087)
0.761
(0.200)
0.002
'(.003)
-11.049
( 2.137)
1.074
(0.189)
0.120
(0.141)
0.074
(0.186)
0.254
(0.061)
0.087
(0.026)
-0.097
0.291
0.001
-4.178
0.406
0.045
0.028
0.096
0.033
25
Table 9. Instrumental Variable Estimates - IV Probit
cont
Coeff.
M.E.
SE
-0.268
-0.104
(0.129)
DK
0.443
0.154
(0.164)
NL
-0.362
-0.141
(0.149)
BE
-0.071
-0.027
(0.188)
FR
0.221
0.081
(0.136)
CH
-0.054
-0.021
(0.188)
AT
0.573
0.192
(0.222)
ES
-0.262
-0.102
(0.195)
IT
0.253
0.092
(0.171)
GR
0.276
0.099
(0.231)
26
Conclusions
 Importance of various determinants of retirement
 Social Security Wealth and health still relevant
after including a whole battery of dummies; still
of the expected sign after making use of IV, i.e.
importance of institutions, even after controlling
for other factors
 In the future: model labor supply (hours of work)
27