Civil War Dynamics Course Overview Warfare and Violence in Intra-State Conflict

Civil War Dynamics
Warfare and Violence in Intra-State Conflict
Class: TBD
Instructor’s Office Hours: TBD
Instructor: Costantino Pischedda
[email protected]
Course Overview
This is a graduate seminar covering recent political science literature on the deeply intertwined
subjects of warfare and violence in civil wars. Warfare refers to the strategies that civil war
belligerents adopt against each other, while violence refers to their (mis)treatment of civilians in the
war zone. The course explores the causes and consequences of different approaches to the conduct
of civil wars and of civilian victimization, including closely related theoretical and policy questions
about counterinsurgency effectiveness. Thus, unlike other classes on civil war, the main focus here is
not on the causes of war or conflict termination, but rather on what happens in between.
Questions animating this course include: What accounts for the different strategies adopted by civil war
belligerents? Why are some civil wars fought quasi-conventionally, while others are characterized by
irregular and/or asymmetric warfare? What explains the enormous variation in the treatment of civilians
across civil war belligerents, areas within war zones, and over time? Is the targeting of civilians ever a
“sensible” (albeit unpalatable) military choice? What do we know about the effectiveness of different
approaches to the conduct of civil wars, and counterinsurgency in particular?
The syllabus is organized in six thematic sections; the reading list is divided by class meeting.
“Why” and “how” questions about causes and consequences of the phenomena under study are
dominant in the course. This empirical focus is not meant to underplay the importance of normative
concerns about civil war. The first section provides a brief introduction to legal and moral principles
relevant to the study of war, which students should keep in mind throughout the semester.
Goals
The course has two main goals. First, it intends to expose students to the main theoretical debates
and empirical findings of the cutting-edge literature on the dynamics of civil war (the bulk of the
assigned readings was written in the past 5 years). Second, the course aims to further students’
critical and creative thinking on theoretical and policy questions related to civil wars and political
violence more generally, through class discussion and a research paper.
Requirements
This course will be run as a seminar. Students are expected to do all the readings (including those
assigned for the first meeting of the class) and thoughtfully participate in class discussion.
Students will write a research paper (about 25 pages) on a topic related to warfare and violence in
civil war. The normal format for the paper will be to use case studies or statistical data to test a
theoretically grounded hypothesis. A paper proposal (stating your research question and empirical
strategy) is due before the 5th meeting of the class.
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Students will present rough drafts of their papers in the last two class meetings. The final draft is due
one week after the last day of class. Late papers will be penalized
Grading
Grading for the course will be as follows:
Class participation: 40%
Presentation: 10%
Research paper: 50%
Prerequisites
- A graduate-level Introduction to International Relations or
- A graduate-level Introduction to Comparative politics or
- A graduate-level course on international security/civil war.
I.
Introduction: Definitions and Moral-legal Dimensions
(class 1)
What is a civil war?
Just War theory vs. utilitarianism
The law of war
Class 1 [120 pp.]
Nicholas Sambanis. 2004. “What is a Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an
Operational Definition.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 6: 814-858 [45 pp.].
Michael Walzer. 1977. Just and Unjust Wars: A Moral Argument with Historical Illustrations. Basic Books.
Chs. 9, 11, 12, and 16 [71 pp.].
International Committee of the Red Cross. “Customary International Humanitarian Law. Ch. 1 rule 1, ch. 4 - rule 14 (http://www.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1).
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II.
Different “Technologies” of Rebellion
(class 2)
Do civil wars differ in the way they are fought?
Guerrilla vs. “conventional” civil wars
“Primitive” warfare and warlordism
Class 2 [205 pp.]
Mao Tse-tung. 1962. On Guerrilla Warfare (Samuel B. Griffith, trans.). Fredrick A.Praeger. Chs. 1, 2,
and 6 [11 pp.]
Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. 1986.The Army and Vietnam. Johns Hopkins Press. Ch. 1 [24 pp.].
Thomas X. Hammes. 2004. The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century. Zenith. Chs. 1 and 14
[34 pp.].
Mary Kaldor. 1999. New and Old Wars: Organised Violence in a Global Era. Polity Press. Ch. 2 [40 pp.].
Stathis N. Kalyvas. 2001. “New’ and ‘Old’ Civil Wars. A Valid Distinction?” World Politics 54: 99-118
[20 pp.].
Stathis N. Kalyvas. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge University Press. Chs. 4-5 [54
pp.]
David Kilkullen. 2006. “Counter-insurgency Redux.” Survival 48, no. 4: 111-130 [20 pp.].
II.
Determinants of Type of Warfare
(class 3)
Why are some civil wars fought along guerrilla lines while others take more symmetric forms?
Ethnicity
Terrain
Tehcnology and balance of power
Rebel military strategy
Class 3 [236 pp.]
James Fearon and David Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American
Political Science Review 97: 75-90 [26 pp.].
Chaim D. Kaufmann. 1996. “Intervention in Ethnic and Ideological Civil Wars: Why One
Can be Done and the Other Can't.” Security Studies 6, no. 1: 62-100 [39 pp.].
Stathis N. Kalyvas. 2008. “Ethnic Defection in Civil Wars.” Comparative Political Studies 41, no. 8:
1043-1068 [26 pp.].
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Adam Lockyer. 2010. “The Dynamics of Warfare in Civil War.” Civil Wars 12, nos.1–2: 91–116 [26
pp.].
Stathis N. Kalyvas and Laia Balcells. “International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the
End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict.” American Political Science Review 104, no. 3: 415-429
[15 pp.].
Mao Tze-tung. 1954. “On the Protracted War” (excerpts). Selected Works, vol. 2. International
Publishers, pp. 180-193.
Stephen Biddle and Jeffrey A. Friedman. 2008. “The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of
Warfare: Implication s for Army and Defense Policy.” Strategic Studies Institute [90 pp.].
IV. What are the Causes of Violence against Civilians?
(classes 4-7)
Targeted and indiscriminate killing
Barbarism vs. strategic rationality
Rebel capabilities
Norms and regime type
Desperation
Provoking retaliation
External intervention
Organizational factors and resources endowments
Emotions and symbolism of violence
Sexual violence
Class 4 [195 pp.]
Thomas C. Schelling. Arms and Influence. Yale University Press. Ch. 1 [35 pp.].
Stathis N. Kalyvas. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge University Press. Ch. 6-8 and
pp. 278-90 [79 pp.].
Benjamin Valentino, Paul Huth, and Dylan Balch-Lindsay. "'Draining the Sea': Mass Killing and
Guerrilla Warfare." International Organization 58: 375-407 [33 pp.].
Lisa Hultman. 2007. “Battle Losses and Rebel Violence: Raising the Costs for Fighting.” Terrorism
and Political Violence 19, no. 2: 205-222 [18 pp.].
Reed M. Wood. "From Loss to Looting: Battlefield Costs and Rebel Incentives for Violence.”
International Organization (forthcoming) [approx. 30 pp.].
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Class 5 [196 pp.] Paper proposal due in class
Alan J. Kuperman. 2008. “The Moral Hazard of Humanitarian Intervention: Lessons from the
Balkans.” International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 1: 49-80 [pp. 32].
Reed M. Wood, Jacob D. Kathman, and Stephen E. Gent. 2012. “Armed Intervention and Civilian
Victimization in Intrastate Conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 5: 647-660 [24 pp.].
Idean Salehyan, David Siroky and Reed M. Wood. 2014. “External Rebel Sponsorship and Civilian
Abuse: A Principal-Agent Analysis of Wartime Atrocities.” International Organization 68, no. 3: 633661 [29 pp.].
Alexander B. Downes. 2008. Targeting Civilians in War. Cornell University Press. Chs. 1 and 2 [71 pp.].
Colin Khal. 2007. “In the Crossfire or the Crosshairs? Norms, Civilian Casualties, and U.S. Conduct
in Iraq.” International Security 32, no. 1: 7-46 [40 pp.].
Class 6 [176 pp.]
Jeremy M. Weinstein. 2007. Inside Rebellion. Cambridge University Press. Chs. 1, 3, 4, and 6 but skip
all the sections on Peru [117 pp.].
Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein. 2006. “Handling and Manhandling Civilians in
Civil War.” American Political Science Review 100, no. 3: 429-447 [19 pp.].
Joan Esteban, Massimo Morelli, and Dominic Rohner. “Strategic Mass Killings.” Journal of Political
Economy (forthcoming) [approx.. 30 pp.].
Class 7 [156 pp.]
Laia Balcells. 2010. “Rivalry and Revenge: Violence against Civilians in Conventional Civil Wars.”
International Studies Quarterly 54: 291-313 [23 pp.].
Roger Petersen. 2002. Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century
Eastern Europe. Cambridge University Press. Chs. 2-4 [68 pp.].
Lee Ann Fuji. 2013. “The Puzzle of Extra-Lethal Violence.” Perspectives on Politics 11, no. 2: 410-26
[17 pp.].
Elisabeth J. Wood. 2012. “Rape during War in Not Inevitable: Variation in Wartime Sexual
Violence.” In Morten Bergsmo, Alf B. Skre, and Elisabeth Jean Wood (eds.).Understanding and Proving
International Sex Crimes. Torkel Opsahl Academic Epublisher [31 pp.].
Dara Kay Cohen. 2013. “Explaining Rape During Civil War: Cross-National Evidence (1980-2009).”
American Political Science Review 107, no. 3: 461-477 [17 pp.].
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V.
Consequences of Civilian Targeting
(class 8)
Does civilian victimization ever “pay”?
Targeted vs. indiscriminate violence
Punishment vs. denial vs. brute force
Ethnicity and geography
Inferring intentions of perpetrators and re-assurance
Class 8 [221 pp.]
Martin Van Creveld. 2004. “On Counterinsurgency.” In Katherina von Knop, Heinrich Neisser,
Martin van Creveld (eds.). Countering Modern Terrorism: History, Current Issues and Future Threats. Wbv,
W. Bertelsmann Verlag [15 pp.].
Alexander B. Downes. 2007. “Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves: Investigating the Effectiveness
of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsurgency Strategy.” Civil Wars 9, no. 4: 420-444 [25 pp.].
Jason Lyall. 2009. “Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from
Chechnya.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53: 331-362 [32 pp.].
Matthew A, Kocher, Thomas B. Pepinsky, and Stathis N. Kalyvas. 2009. “Aerial Bombing and
Counterinsurgency in the Vietnam War.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2: 1-18 [18 pp.] .
Luke N. Condra and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2012. "Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of
Collateral Damage." American Journal of Political Science 56, no. 1: 167-187 [21 pp.].
Jason Lyall 2014. “Bombing to Lose? Airpower and the Dynamics of Coercion in
Counterinsurgency Wars” (manuscript) [approx. 30 pp.].
Page V. Fortna. “Do Terrorists Win?” International Organization (forthcoming) [approx.. 30 pp.].
Maria J. Stephan and Erica Chenoweth. 2008. ‘Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of
Nonviolent Conflict.” International Security 33, no. 1: 7–44 [38 pp.].
Max Abrahms. 2013. “The Credibility Paradox: Violence as a Double-Edged Sword in
International Politics.” International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 4: 660-671 [12 pp.].
VI. Competing Approaches to Counterinsurgency
(classes 9-12)
Hearts and minds vs. coercion
International support and rebel sanctuaries
Troop density
Mechanization and intelligence collection
Regime type and public opinion
Decapitation of insurgent organizations
Insurgent flipping
Co-ethnic counterinsurgents
Development aid
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Class 9 [183 pp.]
Eliot Cohen, Conrand Crane, Jan Horvath, and John Nagl.2006. “Principles, Imperatives, and
Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency.” Military Review (April-May): 49-53 [5 pp.].
Gian P. Gentile. 2009. “A Strategy of Tactics: Population-centric COIN and the Army.” Parameters
(Fall): 5-17 [13 pp.].
Austin Long. 2008. Doctrine of Eternal Recurrence: The US Military and Counterinsurgency Doctrine, 19601970 and 2003-2006. Rand Occasional Paper [30 pp.].
Kelly M. Greenhill and Paul Staniland. 2007. "Ten Ways to Lose at Counterinsurgency." Civil Wars 9,
no.4: 402-419 [18 pp.].
Ben Connable and Martin C. Libicki. 2010. How Insurgencies End. Rand Corporation. Chs. 3-5 [117
pp., skim case studies].
Class 10 [214 pp.]
Paul Staniland. 2005. “Defeating Transnational Insurgencies: The Best Offense is a Good Fence.”
The Washington Quarterly 29, no. 1: 21-40 [20].
Patrick Johnston and Seth G. Jones. 2013. “The Future of Insurgency.” Studies in Conflict &
Terrorism 36, no. 1: 1-25 [25 pp.]
James T. Quinlivan. 1995. “Force Requirements for Stability Operations.” Parameters (Winter): 59-69
[11 pp.].
Jeffrey A. Friedman. 2011. “Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory
and Doctrine.” Security Studies 20, no. 4: 556-591 [36 pp.].
Stephen Biddle, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2012. "Testing the Surge: Why Did
Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?" International Security 37, no. 1: 7-40 [34 pp.].
Jason Lyall and Isaiah Wilson III. 2009. “Rage against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in
Counterinsurgency Wars.” International Organization 63: 67–106 [40 pp.].
Paul K. MacDonald. 2013. “‘Retribution Must Succeed Rebellion’: The Colonial Origins of
Counterinsurgency Failure.” International Organizations 67: 253-286 [34 pp.].
Stephen Biddle. 2014. “Afghanistan’s Legacy.” Washington Quarterly 37, no. 2: 73-86 [14 pp.].
Recommended
US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual – FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5 (2006)
(available at http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24.pdf.
Thomas X. Hammes. 2004. The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century. Zenith. Ch. 13.
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Stephen Biddle. 2008. “Review of The New U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual.”
Perspective on Politics 2: 347-350.
Class 11 [219 pp.]
Fact sheet on US targeted killing:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/08/everything-you-need-toknow-about-the-drone-debate-in-one-faq/
Jenna Jordan. 2009. "When Heads Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation."
Security Studies 18, no. 4: 719-755 [27 pp.].
Patrick B. Johnston. 2012. “Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership
Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns.” International Security 36, no. 4: 47-79 [33 pp.].
Bryan C. Price. 2012. “Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to
Counterterrorism.” International Security 4, no. 36: 9-46 [38 pp.].
Austin Long. 2014. “Whack-a-Mole or Coup de Grace? Institutionalization and Leadership
Targeting in Iraq and Afghanistan.” Security Studies 23, no. 3: 471-512 [42 pp.].
Anna Getmansky. 2012. “You Can't Win If You Don't Fight: The Role of Regime Type in
Counterinsurgency Outbreaks and Outcomes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 57, no. 4: 709-734 [26 pp.].
Paul Staniland. 2012. “Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Insurgent Fratricide, Ethnic Defection,
and the Rise of Pro-State Paramilitaries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 56, no. 1: 16-40 [25 pp.].
Lee Seymour. “Alignment in Civil Wars: Rivalry, Patronage and Side Switching in Sudan.”
International Security (forthcoming) [approx.. 40 pp.].
Austin Long. 2008. “The Anbar Awakening.” Survival 50, no. 2: 67-94 [28 pp.].
Class 12 [202 pp.]
Jason Lyall. 2010. "Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second
Chechen War." American Political Science Review 104, no. 1: 1-20 [20 pp.].
Jason Lyall, Kosuke Imai, and Yuki Shiraito. 2014. “Coethnic Bias and Wartime Informing”
(manuscript) [approx. 30 pp.].
Stephen Watts et al. 2014. Countering Others’ Insurgencies: Understanding U.S. Small-Footprint Interventions
in Local Context (summary). Rand Corporation [8pp.].
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Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2011. "Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The
Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq." Journal of Political Economy 119: 766-819 [54 pp.].
Benjamin Crost, Joseph Felter, and Patrick Johnston. 2014. “Aid Under Fire: Development
Projects and Civil Conflict.” American Economic Review 104, no. 6: 1833–1856 [24 pp.].
Jacob N. Shapiro and Nils B. Weidmann. "Is the Phone Mightier than the Sword? Cell Phones and
Insurgent Violence in Iraq." International Organization (forthcoming) [approx.. 30 pp.].
Florian Hollenbach and Jan Pierskalla, “Technology and Collective Action: The Effect of Cell
Phone Coverage on Political Violence in Africa.” American Political Science Review 107, no. 2: 207-224
[18 pp.].
Monica Duffy Toft and Yuri M. Zhukov. Denial and Punishment in the North Caucasus: Evaluating
the Effectiveness of Coercive Counter-insurgency.” Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 6: 785-800 [16
pp.].
In-class presentations of paper drafts
(classes 13-14)
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