ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN THIS ISSUE: ©

ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
©
FAIRFAX COUNTY
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
IN THIS ISSUE:
 The unemployment rate in Fairfax County
decreased to 3.5 percent in December.
(See page 1)
FAIRFAX COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT DATA
Num ber of
Unem ployed
 The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of
2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 after
growing 5.0 percent in the third quarter.
(See page 2)
Unem ployment
Rate
30,000
29,000
 Year-to-date through February, Sales tax
receipts in Fairfax County are up 6.9 percent.
(See page 2)
FEBRUARY 2015
5.5%
Unemployment Rate
28,000
27,000
26,000
 The number of homes sold in Fairfax County
in January increased 4.1 percent over a year
ago.
(See page 3)
 In January 2015, the average sales price of
all homes sold in Fairfax County increased
7.3 percent compared to the average sales
price in January 2014.
(See page 3)
 The number of active listings of homes for
sale in the County increased 34.5 percent in
January from a year ago.
(See page 4)
The Fairfax County Economic
Indicators is on the Web and
can be accessed at:
http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/economic/
economic_indicators.htm
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
25,000
2.5%
24,000
 The Consumer Confidence Index increased in
January to the highest level since August
2007.
(See page 2)
5.0%
23,000
2.0%
1.5%
22,000
1.0%
21,000
0.5%
20,000
0.0%
Source: Virginia Employment Commission. Compiled by the Fairfax
County Department of Management and Budget.
Employment
The unemployment rate in Fairfax County decreased
from 3.6 percent in November to 3.5 percent in
December. The number of unemployed residents
decreased over the month from 22,357 to 21,872.
This is the lowest unemployment rate since
December 2008. The County’s unemployment rate
was 0.2 percentage points lower than last
December.
The December seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate in Virginia fell to 4.8 percent from 5.0 percent
in November. This is the lowest rate since October
2008. The December rate decreased 0.4 percentage
points from a year ago.
The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in
December decreased to 5.6 percent from 5.8
percent in November. Total nonfarm payroll
employment increased by 252,000 in December. On
average, 246,000 jobs per month were added during
2014, compared to an average monthly gain of
194,000 in 2013.
Page 2
Consumer Confidence Index
Sales Tax Receipts
Millions
$18
U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
FAIRFAX COUNTY SALES TAX RECEIPTS
(revenues represent retail sales two months prior)
105
FY 2013
FY 2014
FY 2015
1985=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted
100
$16
$14
$12
95
90
85
80
75
$10
70 JAN
14
$8
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN
15
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL
Source:
Virginia Department of Taxation.
Department of Management and Budget.
Compiled by the Fairfax County
Sales Tax receipts distributed to Fairfax County in
February for retail purchases made in December
during the holiday season were $17.2 million, an
increase of 10.7 percent over February 2014. Last
February, receipts included a $1.5 million refund for
taxes paid prior to the beginning of the fiscal year
based on a state audit. Adjusting for the refund,
February 2015 Sales Tax receipts would have been up
only 0.9 percent. Combined, Sales Tax receipts are
up 6.9 percent for the first seven months of the fiscal
year.
Source:
The Conference Board.
Compiled by the Fairfax County
Department of Management and Budget.
The Consumer Confidence Index increased sharply
in January after increasing in December. The index
stands at 102.9 (1985=100), up from 93.1 a month
ago. Both the present situation component and the
expectations component increased. Lynn Franco,
Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference
Board, said, “Consumer confidence is now at its
highest level since August 2007.” She added that
“consumers expressed a considerably higher degree
of optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the
economy and labor market, as well as their
earnings.”
NATIONAL INDICATORS
Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Gains in home prices nationwide slowed during 2014.
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index,
home prices were up 4.3 percent for the 12 months
ending November 2014, the slowest rate since
October 2012. Home prices in the Washington
Metropolitan area posted a 1.9 percent gain during
the same period. The pace of home price appreciation
is expected to remain constrained during 2015 due to
low inventory levels and tight lending standards.
Gross Domestic Product
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an
annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of
2014, according to the preliminary estimate by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). While that was
about half the pace of the third quarter’s 5.0 percent
growth rate, consumer spending, the main driver of
the economy, grew at the fastest rate in almost nine
years from October through December. Falling
gasoline prices and consistent job growth in recent
months have lifted consumer confidence and
spending power. The U.S. economy is estimated to
have grown 2.4 percent in 2014 compared to an
increase of 2.2 percent in 2013.
Page 3
FAIRFAX COUNTY HOUSING
MARKET
AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET IN
FAIRFAX COUNTY
80
73
Total Home Sales Volume
68
70
In January, 705 homes were sold in Fairfax County,
an increase of 4.1 percent over the 677 homes sold in
January 2014.
58
60
55
51
50
47
TOTAL UNITS SOLD IN FAIRFAX COUNTY
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
61
60
40
2013
41
34 35
43
38
31
30
2014
45
33
28
20
2015
10
0
S o u r c e : R e a l E s t a t e B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e . C o mp i l e d b y t h e
F a i r f a x C o u n t y D e p a r t me n t o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t .
Average Home Sales Prices
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Source: Real Estate Business Intelligence. Compiled
F a i r f a x C o u n t y D e p a r t me n t o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t .
by
the
Average Days on the Market
On average, homes that sold in Fairfax County in
January were on the market for 73 days. This is 15
days longer than the 58-day average in January 2014.
Changes in selling prices and the volume of sales
are presented as indicators of the County’s real
estate market. Average selling price changes do
not translate directly into assessment adjustments,
since the mix of homes sold is not necessarily
reflective of the County’s entire housing stock. To
read more about Fairfax County tax assessments,
please visit:
ww w .fairfaxcount y.go v/dt a/tax_assessment.htm
The average sales price of all homes that sold in
January 2015 in Fairfax County was $526,786, an
increase of 7.3 percent over the January 2014
average sales price of $491,144. The average
January price was down 2.1 percent compared to
the 2014 average home sales price of $538,280.
The average sales price for detached homes that
sold in January 2015 was $701,432, an increase of
7.0 percent over the January 2014 average of
$655,499. The average sales price of attached
homes increased 4.5 percent during the same time
period.
FAIRFAX COUNTY
AVERAGE SALES PRICE OF HOMES SOLD IN
JAN 2015 COMPARED TO SALES IN JAN 2014
JAN 2015
JAN 2014
%
Change
All Homes
$526,786
$491,144
7.3%
Detached Homes
$701,432
$655,499
7.0%
Attached Homes
$359,418
$343,824
4.5%
Page 4
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Thousands
AVERAGE HOME SALES PRICE IN FAIRFAX COUNTY
$600
2013
2014
2015
$575
$550
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year
fixed rate mortgage interest rate decreased to 3.67
percent in January, down from 3.86 percent a month
ago. This was the lowest level since May 2013. A
year ago, the average 30-year mortgage interest
rate was 4.43 percent. With falling mortgage
interest rates, there has been a resurgence of
refinancing activity at the start of 2015, according to
the Mortgage Bankers Association.
$525
Monthly 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
$500
4.75
$475
4.50
$450
4.25
$425
4.00
$400
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
S o u r c e : R e a l E s t a t e B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e . C o mp i l e d
F a i r f a x C o u n t y D e p a r t me n t o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t .
by
3.75
the
3.50
Inventory of Homes for Sale
3.25
In January, the number of active listings in the County
was 2,198, an increase of 34.5 percent over the 1,634
listed in January 2014. Based on the January 2015
listings and the current sales rate, there is
approximately a 3.1 month supply of homes for sale in
the County, up from the 2.4 month supply a year ago.
3.00
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Source: Freddie Mac. Compiled by
D e p a r t me n t o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t .
the
Jan-15
Fairfax
County
ACTIVE REAL ESTATE LISTINGS IN
FAIRFAX COUNTY
3354
3560
3747
3796
3989
3773
3028
4400
2400
2000
2667
2116
2800
1758
1634
1814
3200
2384
2451
2718
2605
2197
3600
Inquiries regarding
directed to:
publication
should
Staff: Susan Datta, CFO; Marcia Wilds,
Revenue and Economic Analysis Coordinator;
Albena Assenova, Senior Budget Analyst.
1600
1200
800
400
0
S o u r c e : R e a l E s t a t e B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e . C o mp i l e d
F a i r f a x C o u n t y D e p a r t me n t o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t .
this
by
be
The Department of Management and Budget
12000 Government Center Parkway
Suite 561
Fairfax, Virginia 22035-0074
(703) 324-2391 or 1-800-828-1120 (TDD)
2330
2198
4000
the