DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS NOTES

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS NOTES
The following section provides an overview of the information about Fairfax County. This section presents tables
and graphics on the following subjects:
Population, Housing Units and Households
Population Age Distribution
Racial and Ethnic Distribution
Average Household Size by Race
Measures of Income
Housing Units by Type of Structure
Rental Housing Complex Characteristics
Market Value of Housing Units
Unemployment Rates and Total Employment
Data presented cover historical, current and future time frames.
More detailed information about some of these subjects can be found in other sections of the Demographic Reports.
II-1
TABLE 2.1
Year
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Estimates
Estimates and Forecasts of
Population, Housing Units and Households
Fairfax County, 1970 through 2040
Total
454,300
537,200
596,900
668,300
818,600
879,400
969,700
1,033,600
1,037,300
1,041,500
1,045,700
1,052,000
1,081,700
1,096,800
1,109,700
1,111,600
1,116,200
1,125,400
1,162,500
1,213,200
1,264,700
1,314,300
1,362,500
1
2
Population
Average
Annual Increase
-16,600
11,900
14,300
30,100
12,200
18,100
12,800
3,700
4,200
4,200
6,300
29,700
15,100
12,900
1,900
4,600
9,200
7,400
10,100
10,300
9,900
9,600
Average Annual
Growth Rate
-3.4%
2.1%
2.3%
4.1%
1.4%
2.0%
1.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
2.8%
1.4%
1.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
Total
Housing
Units
130,800
173,000
215,600
247,800
302,500
328,200
359,000
385,600
388,800
391,100
391,700
394,600
396,400
403,900
408,100
409,100
410,000
412,200
430,100
454,200
478,200
501,300
523,700
Total
126,500
166,400
205,200
238,500
289,000
317,000
353,100
376,700
379,000
381,200
381,700
384,400
386,100
394,100
398,700
399,500
401,000
403,900
421,200
444,500
467,800
490,200
511,900
Households
Average
Annual Increase
-8,000
7,800
6,700
10,100
5,600
7,200
4,700
2,300
2,200
500
2,700
1,700
8,000
4,600
800
1,500
2,900
3,500
4,700
4,700
4,500
4,300
Average Annual
Growth Rate
-5.6%
4.3%
3.1%
3.9%
1.9%
2.2%
1.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
0.4%
2.1%
1.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.7%
0.8%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Censuses of Population and Housing, population, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 (figures as of April 1); and housing units and households 1970 and 1980.
Department of Neighborhood and Community Services, Fairfax County, all other estimates; Integrated Parcel Lifecycle System (IPLS) 2015.
Note: All numbers are rounded to nearest hundred. Households are occupied housing units.
1
Datum is 1970 Census total population after 1975 revision.
2
Datum is 2010 Census total population after 2014 revision.
II-2
FIGURE 2.1
Historical, Estimated and Forecast
Population, Housing Units and Households
Fairfax County, 1970 through 2040
1,400,000
Population
1,200,000
Housing Units
1,000,000
Households
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Censuses of Population and Housing, population, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 (figures as of April 1) and 2010 (revised figure as of 2013) housing units
and households 1970 and 1980.
Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services, all other estimates; 2015 Integrated Parcel Lifecycle System (IPLS).
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TABLE 2.2
Population Age Distribution
Fairfax County, 1970 through 2010
Age Group
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 and Over
Total
Median Age
1970 1
Persons
Percent
40,726
9.0%
52,113
11.5%
56,178
12.3%
42,934
9.4%
34,269
7.5%
64,926
14.3%
67,648
14.9%
59,141
13.0%
23,412
5.1%
13,674
3.0%
455,021
100.0%
25.2 Years
1980
Persons
Percent
38,326
6.4%
45,307
7.6%
54,936
9.2%
54,754
9.2%
47,646
8.0%
112,191
18.8%
98,037
16.4%
70,151
11.8%
48,564
8.1%
26,989
4.5%
596,901
100.0%
30.1 Years
1990
Persons
Percent
57,892
7.1%
55,698
6.8%
53,112
6.5%
54,207
6.6%
59,425
7.3%
158,602
19.4%
158,119
19.3%
107,709
13.2%
60,276
7.4%
53,544
6.5%
818,584
100.0%
33.1 Years
2000
Persons
Percent
67,781
7.0%
70,076
7.2%
68,544
7.1%
59,762
6.2%
52,425
5.4%
150,257
15.5%
178,871
18.4%
157,350
16.2%
87,865
9.1%
76,818
7.9%
969,749
100.0%
35.9 Years
2010
Persons
Percent
72,960
6.7%
72,670
6.7%
72,332
6.7%
67,443
6.2%
60,139
5.6%
158,642
14.7%
164,990
15.3%
174,767
16.2%
131,493
12.2%
106,290
9.8%
1,081,726
100.0%
37.3 Years
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Population, 1970 through 2010.
Note: Percentages may not sum to total due to rounding.
1
The 1970 Fairfax County population total was revised to 454,275 in September 1975 by the Census Bureau. However, population age distributions were not made available based on this revised total.
II-4
TABLE 2.3
Projected Population Age Distribution
Fairfax County, 2015 through 2035
Age Group
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 and Over
Total
2015
Persons
Percent
75,501
6.7%
76,948
6.8%
71,391
6.3%
71,394
6.3%
66,791
5.9%
159,809
14.2%
164,481
14.6%
169,669
15.1%
140,373
12.5%
129,029
11.5%
1,125,385
100.0%
2020
Persons
Percent
75,934
6.5%
77,711
6.7%
78,691
6.8%
72,754
6.3%
70,348
6.1%
160,250
13.8%
165,127
14.2%
161,780
13.9%
147,969
12.7%
151,982
13.1%
1,162,547
100.0%
2025
Persons
Percent
79,032
6.5%
80,149
6.6%
81,779
6.7%
76,350
6.3%
74,732
6.2%
170,465
14.1%
169,690
14.0%
163,761
13.5%
145,048
12.0%
172,195
14.2%
1,213,202
100.0%
2030
Persons
Percent
83,510
6.6%
83,533
6.6%
84,676
6.7%
79,503
6.3%
78,251
6.2%
179,302
14.2%
177,406
14.0%
168,627
13.3%
142,950
11.3%
186,959
14.8%
1,264,717
100.0%
2035
Persons
Percent
87,547
6.7%
87,771
6.7%
88,107
6.7%
82,341
6.3%
81,236
6.2%
186,756
14.2%
186,080
14.2%
174,203
13.3%
145,805
11.1%
194,466
14.8%
1,314,312
100.0%
Source: Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services, 2015.
Note: Percentages may not sum to total due to rounding.
II-5
Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
TABLE 2.4
TABLE 2.5
Population of Towns
Fairfax County, 1990 through 2015
Racial and Ethnic Population Distribution
Fairfax County, 2000, 2010 and 2014
Town of
Clifton
176
196
224
226
222
222
218
218
223
223
185
253
273
280
276
261
257
260
260
260
282
276
279
282
279
275
Town of
Herndon
16,143
16,521
15,750
15,792
16,061
16,737
17,836
18,085
18,419
18,522
21,655
18,818
19,141
19,721
19,742
22,251
22,596
22,591
22,552
22,680
23,292
21,278
21,670
21,444
21,448
23,607
Town of
Vienna
14,852
14,704
14,911
15,128
14,644
14,838
15,099
15,122
15,654
15,672
14,453
15,543
15,669
15,649
15,660
15,045
14,961
14,930
14,963
15,005
15,687
16,330
16,720
16,676
16,590
16,650
Total
Race
31,171
31,421
30,885
31,146
30,927
31,798
33,153
33,425
34,296
34,471
36,293
34,614
35,083
35,650
35,678
37,557
37,814
37,781
37,775
37,945
39,261
37,884
38,669
38,402
38,317
40,532
White
Black
Asian and Pacific Islander
American Indian and Alaska Native
Other
Fairfax County Total Population
Hispanic*
2000
Persons Percent
677,904
69.9%
83,098
8.6%
126,729
13.1%
2,561
0.3%
79,457
8.2%
969,749 100.0%
106,958
11.0%
2010
Persons Percent
677,990
62.7%
99,218
9.2%
190,525
17.6%
3,884
0.4%
110,109
10.2%
1,081,726 100.0%
168,482
15.6%
2014
Persons Percent
705,847
63.2%
107,526
9.6%
210,488
18.9%
2,655
0.2%
89,729
8.0%
1,116,246 100.0%
182,913
16.4%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, 2000 and 2010;
and Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services, 2014 population.
Note: Percentages may not sum to total due to rounding.
TABLE 2.6
Average Household Size by Race
Fairfax County, 1990, 2000 and 2010
Average Household Size
Racial or Ethnic
Origin Group
1990
2000
2010
White
2.65
2.57
2.55
Black
2.86
2.74
2.68
Asian
Hispanic*
3.69
3.33
3.17
3.66
4.06
3.87
Fairfax County
2.75
2.74
2.74
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing,
Note: Percentages may not sum to total due to rounding.
1990, 2000 and 2010;
Excluded are persons living in group quarters such as
nursing homes, dormitories, and correctional facilities.
Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services,
*
Hispanic persons may be of any race.
1991 through 1999, 2001 through 2009, 2011 through 2015.
II-6
TABLE 2.7
TABLE 2.8
Household and Family
Income Distribution
Fairfax County, 2014
Estimates of Median Household Income
and Median Family Income
Fairfax County, 1985 through 2014
Percent of
Households
Under $25,000
7.7%
$25,000 - $49,999
10.0%
$50,000 - $74,999
13.3%
$75,000 - $99,999
13.3%
$100,000 - $149,999
21.4%
$150,000 or More
34.3%
Total
100.0%
Income Level
Percent of
Families
5.7%
8.9%
10.9%
11.7%
20.6%
42.2%
100.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, 2014.
Note: Percentages may not sum to total due to rounding.
Household Income is defined as that income which is available to all residents
of a housing unit, regardless of relationship. Income is from all sources, before
taxes and deductions, and includes wages, business, retirement, SSI, alimony,
child support, interest, etc.
Family Income is derived by including only those households containing two or
more persons related by blood, marriage or adoption.
Year
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Median
Household Income
$49,700
$55,100
$59,284
$61,000
$64,000
$70,000
$72,000
$81,050
$82,000
$84,683
$85,310
$80,753
$88,133
$94,610
$100,318
$105,241
$107,448
$102,499
$103,010
$105,797
$107,096
$111,079
$110,674
Median
Family Income
$54,200
$62,000
$65,201
$70,000
$72,000
$78,000
$84,000
$92,146
$95,000
$99,085
$95,612
$93,978
$90,194
$110,107
$119,812
$122,027
$126,910
$122,651
$122,189
$119,634
$124,831
$128,066
$130,071
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 1989 and 1999;
U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2001 Supplemental Survey; American Community Survey, 2002 2014; and Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services, all other years.
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Table 2.9
Estimated and Forecasted Housing Units
by Type of Structure
Fairfax County, 1950 through 2045
Year
Single Family Detached
Single Family Attached
Housing
Units
Housing
Units
Percent
Percent
Multifamily
Housing
Units
Total Housing Units
Percent
Housing
Units
Percent
1950
19,979
75.2%
1,997
7.5%
4,582
17.2%
26,558
100.0%
1960
59,261
85.6%
3,526
5.0%
6,394
9.2%
69,181
100.0%
1970*
91,134
69.6%
7,747
5.9%
31,887
24.3%
130,768
100.0%
1980*
125,717
58.2%
31,882
14.7%
58,072
26.9%
215,671
100.0%
1990
163,029
53.9%
67,306
22.2%
72,129
23.8%
302,464
100.0%
2000
181,591
50.5%
87,171
24.2%
90,198
25.1%
358,960
100.0%
2010
191,873
48.4%
98,972
24.9%
105,541
26.6%
396,386
100.0%
2015
195,034
47.3%
100,161
24.2%
117,003
28.3%
412,198
100.0%
2020
196,804
45.7%
100,777
23.4%
132,558
30.8%
430,138
100.0%
2025
199,401
43.9%
101,105
22.2%
153,693
33.8%
454,198
100.0%
2030
202,718
42.3%
101,279
21.1%
174,204
36.4%
478,201
100.0%
2035
205,920
41.0%
101,393
20.2%
194,008
38.6%
501,320
100.0%
2040
209,089
39.9%
101,560
19.3%
213,075
40.6%
523,725
100.0%
2045
211,929
38.9%
101,737
18.6%
230,668
42.3%
544,334
100.0%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 1950 through 1980; Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community
Services, 1990 through 2045, Integrated Parcel Lifecycle System (IPLS) 2015.
Note: 1950 through 2015 are estimates and 2020 through 2045 are forecasts. Due to rounding and geography, figures in this table may vary from those in other
tables. Single family detached category includes mobile homes; single family attached category includes townhouses, duplexes and multiplexes; and multifamily
category includes garden, mid-rise and high-rise units.
1990, 2000 and 2010 estimates do not include housing units located on Fort Belvoir.
*Data are estimates based on a sample and therefore may not agree with similar published information.
II-8
FIGURE 2.2
Historical and Forecast Housing Units
by Type of Structure
Fairfax County, 1970 through 2040
600,000
Multifamily
500,000
Single Family Attached
Single Family Detached
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2015
2020
2030
2040
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 and 1980; Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services, 1990 through 2040, 2015 Integrated Parcel Lifecycle System (IPLS).
Note: Single family detached category includes single family detached units and mobile homes; single family attached category includes townhouses, duplex and multiplex units;
multifamily category includes garden, mid-rise and high-rise units.
II-9
TABLE 2.10
TABLE 2.11
Rental Housing Complexes: Total Units,
Vacancy Rate and Average Monthly Rent
Fairfax County, 1981 through 2014
Estimated Median Market Value
Owned Housing Units
Fairfax County, 1983 through 2015
Year
Total Units
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
43,114
42,238
41,600
40,813
40,186
40,762
41,745
42,802
45,578
48,567
49,253
50,148
49,811
50,184
50,111
51,186
52,024
54,243
57,226
59,128
60,175
61,297
62,934
63,269
62,156
62,182
64,316
65,571
66,327
67,485
68,396
69,547
71,670
Vacancy Rate
2.6%
2.6%
3.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.5%
4.4%
3.1%
7.4%
6.6%
7.6%
6.2%
5.2%
4.7%
4.9%
5.4%
5.0%
5.5%
1.6%
2.5%
5.5%
5.6%
5.6%
6.8%
6.0%
5.9%
6.8%
8.2%
6.2%
5.0%
5.5%
5.6%
7.6%
Average
Monthly Rent
Year
$367
$403
$430
$466
$517
$566
$615
$662
$705
$734
$747
$739
$753
$767
$792
$800
$809
$849
$989
$1,129
$1,157
$1,168
$1,157
$1,202
$1,247
$1,311
$1,341
$1,375
$1,383
$1,433
$1,546
$1,590
$1,640
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Median Market
Value
$103,600
$108,100
$110,500
$118,400
$133,400
$152,800
$179,500
$194,700
$190,100
$183,700
$183,500
$184,400
$186,800
$186,300
$185,700
$185,600
$192,100
$226,800
$229,200
$265,600
$307,600
$349,000
$431,705
$538,940
$536,162
$502,205
$441,679
$418,440
$429,155
$430,855
$442,370
$447,541
$492,126
Percent
Change
-0.5%
4.3%
2.2%
7.1%
12.7%
14.5%
17.5%
8.5%
-2.4%
-3.4%
-0.1%
0.5%
1.3%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-0.1%
3.5%
18.1%
1.1%
15.9%
15.8%
13.5%
23.7%
24.8%
-0.5%
-6.3%
-12.1%
-5.3%
2.6%
0.4%
2.7%
1.2%
10.0%
Source: Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services, 2014.
Note: Vacancy rate and average monthly rent figures are calculated based on information provided
by those rental housing complexes in major rental housing projects having five or more units.
Source: Fairfax County Department of Neighborhood and Community Services,
Integrated Parcel Lifecycle System (IPLS) 2015.
II-10
TABLE 2.12
2010 and 2014 Population, Median Household Income and Median Family Income
by Selected Jurisdictions in the Washington DC Metropolitan Area, State of Virginia and the United States
2010 Census
Jurisdiction
Fairfax County, VA
Arlington County, VA
Fauquier County, VA
Loudoun County, VA
Prince William County, VA
Spotsylvania County, VA
Stafford County, VA
Alexandria City, VA
Anne Arundel County, MD
Calvert County, MD
Charles County, MD
Frederick County, MD
Howard County, MD
Montgomery County, MD
Prince Georges County, MD
District of Columbia
Berkeley County, WV
Washington DC-MD-VA-WV MSA
State of Virginia
United States
Population
1,081,699*
207,627
65,203
312,311
402,002
122,397
128,961
139,993*
537,656
88,737
146,551
233,385
287,085
971,777
863,420
601,723
104,169
5,582,170
8,001,024
308,745,538
Median Household
Income
2014
Median Family
Income
103,010
94,986
85,614
119,540
92,655
72,217
94,317
77,793
81,455
88,862
87,007
82,133
101,771
89,155
70,019
60,903
50,724
84,523
60,674
50,046
122,189
116,586
94,402
126,174
102,117
77,868
101,015
101,064
97,974
100,397
95,366
95,786
120,664
108,828
80,032
77,514
62,136
100,921
72,476
60,609
Population
1,137,538
226,908
68,248
363,050
446,094
129,188
139,992
150,575
560,133
90,613
154,747
243,675
309,284
1,030,447
904,430
658,893
110,497
6,032,744
8,326,289
318,857,056
Median Household
Income
110,674
109,266
91,987
122,294
92,104
75,686
93,422
86,809
87,217
95,110
88,803
84,203
107,490
97,765
72,290
71,648
58,754
91,193
64,902
53,657
Median Family
Income
130,071
137,337
104,274
135,045
101,433
87,437
106,554
110,821
100,626
100,751
99,740
98,717
127,223
115,150
83,167
84,094
69,201
105,854
78,290
65,910
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census of Population and Housing; 2010 and 2014 American Community Survey.
*2010 Census of Population and Housing was revised in 2014 for Fairfax County, Virginia and City of Alexandria, Virginia
Note: Household Income is defined as that income which is available to all residents of a housing unit, regardless of relationship. Income is from all sources, before taxes and deductions, and includes wages,
business income, retirement, SSI, alimony, child support, interest, etc. Family Income is derived by including only those households containing two or more persons related by birth, marriage or adoption.
Fairfax County population estimates differ from the American Community Survey population estimates due to a difference in methodologies.
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FIGURE 2.3
Average Annual Unemployment Rate and
Average Annual Total Employment
Fairfax County, 2004 through 2014
610,000
6%
600,000
Total Employment
580,000
4%
570,000
560,000
3%
550,000
540,000
2%
530,000
520,000
1%
510,000
500,000
Total Employment
Unemployment Rate
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0%
538,900 553,530 564,587 568,732 576,057 559,644 579,498 591,067 596,667 598,080 601,998
2.8%
2.6%
2.2%
2.2%
2.8%
4.8%
5.1%
4.8%
4.5%
4.4%
4.1%
Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), as of January 19, 2016.
Note: Total Employment refer to the number of employed Fairfax County residents, regardless of their place of employment.
II-12
Unemployment Rate
5%
590,000