NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as
a National Model
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
32nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
October 22, 2007
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
1
Overview
• Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at
NCEP
• Ongoing Strategic Priorities
• Challenges
• Building Update
2
NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
Climate
CFS
Oceans
Hurricane
GFDL
HWRF
MOM3
HYCOM
WaveWatch III
1.7B Obs/Day
Satellites
99.9%
Global Data
Assimilation
Global
Forecast
System
Regional NAM
WRF NMM
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Severe Weather
North American Ensemble
Forecast System
GFS, Canadian Global Model
Short-Range
Ensemble Forecast
WRF: ARW, NMM
ETA, RSM
WRF NMM/ARW
Workstation WRF
Air Quality
NAM/CMAQ
Rapid Update
for Aviation
NOAH Land Surface Model
For
eca
st
3
U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill
0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal
• Climate Forecast System:
First dynamic operational climate forecast model
implemented August 2004
• Climate Test Bed: established in 2005and focused on improving the Climate Forecast
System and related seasonal forecast products
• Unprecedented increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks: (20% or more; 4
O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB activities (e.g. consolidation tool)
Ongoing Strategic Priorities
• Accelerate improvements in the CFS through
the R2O & “O2R” paradigm
• Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process
• Be a partner within the multi model ensemble
enterprise
5
“Operations to Research (O2R)”
To Accelerate R2O; Must Support “O2R”
• Goal
– To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by
providing the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the broad research
community
• Deliverables
– CFS, data, and support services (e.g. helpdesk facility) to user community
– Annual workshop on CFS
• Mechanism
– Managed operational program between NCEP, Climate Program Office
(CPO), and Climate Test Bed (CTB)
• Benefits
– Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc)
– Maximizes opportunities for community participation
6
“Operations to Research (O2R)”
• NCEP will provide
•
•
•
•
Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis)
Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services
Points of contact for collaboration
Support for CTB Seminar Series
• CPO will provide
• Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services
• Grants Program (AOs)
• CTB will provide
• Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O)
• Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB)
• GAPS
• Computing support for dissemination of models and data
• Resources for competitive transition activities
7
Challenges with Multi-Model (MME)
System
• Lack of a National Strategy on MME, including insufficient
(US) computer resources for generating hindcast data sets
• Lack of a concept of operations
– MOUs with partners (International and US) for exchanges of
operational models and real time forecast data
• CTB resource limitations
– Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other
organizations
– Skill assessments
– Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for
operations
8
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
at the UMD Research Park (M-Square)
• 268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds,
contractors and visiting scientists
• 5 NCEP Centers
• NESDIS research and satellite services
• OAR Air Resources Laboratory
• 40 spaces for visiting scientists
Construction Schedule
Date
Construction Start
May 9, 2007
Move Start
Dec 2008
Move Complete
July 2009
9
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Recent Activities
Construction photographs – October 2, 2007
10
NOAA Center for
Weather and
Climate Prediction
located at
University of MD
M2 Research Park
NORTH
11
Summary
• CFS and CTB advancing nicely
• NCEP’s role in R2O implies greater
support for O2R. (Research and transition
activities need to build off the operational
infrastructure.)
• New NOAA Center for Weather and
Climate Prediction should
help facilitate
12
Appendix
13
NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process
EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations
Observation
System
Effort
Other Agencies
Universities
International
NOAA
Research
R&D
Service
Centers
EMC
NCO
OPS
Test Beds
JCSDA
CTB
DTC
JHT
Field
Offices
EMC
Life cycle
Support
Operations
Service Centers
User
Delivery
Transition from Research to Operations
Launch List – Model Implementation Process
Concept of Operations
Requirements
Criteria
Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability
14
Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process
1
R&D
Community
1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded
through AOs, Agency Labs…
2
NCEP
is uniquely
positioned
to provide an
operational
infrastructure for
the transition
processes
2. Smaller set of R&D products
suitable for operations.
R2O
O2R
N
C
E
P
R2O
3
EMC
CFS
C
T
B
OPERATIONS
4
O2A
User
Community
C
P
C
3. Systematic transition steps
Research-to-Operations (R2O).
Deliver skill-optimized forecast
products founded on CTB-based
innovation and& customer
feedback; Bring in customer
requests
4. Systematic transition steps
Operations-to-Applications (O2A).
5. Delivery of products to the diverse
community and customer
feedback
5
CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)
15