ARCs Contributions to CTB NOAA Climate Test Bed Science Advisory Board

ARCs Contributions
to CTB
NOAA Climate Test Bed
Science Advisory Board
28 August 2007
NOAA Applied Research
Centers (ARCs) and CTB
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The NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) conduct mission-oriented
applied R&D with stable funding under five-year renewable institutional
awards. Each Center has a unique capability to contribute to the NOAA
Climate Program’s objectives.
(from CPO:
http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/cdep/)
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The ARCs collaborate with CTB to accelerate transition of new and improved
science-driven climate forecast & analysis products into operations (R2O) with
emphasis on specific CPC product ranges (6-10 day, week 2, monthly,
seasonal)
(from CTB Interim Report 2007)
The ARCs are also beginning a new activity to enable the research community
to make use of CTB models (O2R)
ARCs:
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Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC)
COAPS (Florida State U)
COLA
CSES ARC (U Washington)
ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego)
Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP)
Example: CTB Seminar Series
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CFS as a Prediction System and Research Tool
Initially being established by NCEP and COLA
 Will expand to include the broader climate community
 12 scheduled through Feb’08 (6 at COLA, 6 at NCEP)
 Seminars at NCEP will be coordinated with CTB “Test
and Evaluation Team” meetings
Future Foci:
 Multi-Model Ensembles
 Climate forecast product improvements
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Climate Diagnostics ARC
Position NOAA to proactively deliver research products and experimental services
that provide explanations of current and evolving climate and predictions of future
climate and extreme events with drought-related research and applications in
support of NIDIS as the near-term priority.
Research is coordinated around five foci that contribute to CDEP objectives.
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Reforecasts and Weather-Climate: develop reliable and improve probabilistic short
term climate forecast products
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Historical Reanalysis: produce a 100-year global climate reanalysis based on
surface pressure data using ensemble data assimilation techniques
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Climate Attribution: improve climate attribution capabilities to meet policy and
decision maker needs for explanations of the climate system.
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Climate System Diagnosis: improve understanding of dynamical processes and
predictability of the the climate system
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Regional Applications and Services: improve delivery of regional climate products
and services needed to manage climate-related risks.
Courtesy - Robin Webb
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov
The Climate Diagnostics ARC complements the
Climate Test Bed through scientific advances that improve
NOAA climate forecast products and services
 Infuse research findings into weekly US Hazards Assessment discussions, monthly
US Seasonal Outlooks discussions, ENSO Diagnostics discussions, Drought
Monitoring Assessments
 Develop advanced techniques for 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and
precipitation outlooks
 Develop new tools for NOAA Drought Outlooks
 Partner with NOAA RISAs (e.g., WWA, CLIMAS, CIG, & CAP) to develop and deliver
experimental regional climate products and services
 Created and maintain a web portal where researchers can download the latest
operational source code of the National Center for Environmental Prediction's
Global Forecast System (GFS) model modified to run in Linux cluster environments.
http://code.google.com/p/ncepgfs/Sciences_Division
Courtesy - Robin Webb
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies (COAPS)
About COAPS
COAPS is located at Florida State University and was officially formed in August 1996 by the
Florida Board of Regents. COAPS has approximately 45 employees (i.e., faculty, scientists,
students, and support staff).
Mission Statement
To be a center of excellence which promotes interdisciplinary research in air-sea interaction,
the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice earth system, and climate prediction on scales of
weeks to decades in order to increase our understanding of the physical, social, and
economical consequences of coupled ocean-atmospheric variations.
Centers/Consortiums within COAPS
NOAA Applied Research Center, Research Vessel Data Center, SAMOS Initiative, Florida
Climate Center, Southeast Climate Consortium, Northern Gulf of Mexico NOAA Cooperative
Institute, HYCOM Consortium
Data Serving
Florida Climate Data, FSU Winds and Fluxes, Scatterometer Products, Research Vessel Data,
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HYCOM Data Products, JMA SST ENSO Index
Courtesy - Eric Chassignet
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu
COAPS Contributions
Current
Future/Planned
- Climate Modeling Activities: Improvement
of seasonal surface climate outlooks in the
FSU/COAPS atmospheric model to examine
its potential for crop yield estimation.
Comparison of statistical versus dynamical
downscaling. High-resolution Atlantic Basin
seasonal hurricane simulations in the FSU/
COAPS atmospheric model.
- Accelerated development and transfer
of applied climate products on time
scales of weeks to a season for the
Southeast United States.
- Refinement and development of climate
forecast products: Agriculture, wildfire risk
forecast system, variability of extremes and
extreme events, etc. (http:///agclimate.org)
- Storm Surge Modeling: Collaboration with
the NHC/TPC which led to a modification of
the surge forecasting techniques for storms
in the Gulf of Mexico.
Courtesy - Eric Chassignet
- Collaboration with NCEP on the
evaluation of the CFS in the areas of
COAPS’ expertise, i.e., seasonal climate
prediction (including impact on crop
yield), downscaling, El Nino, impact on
crop yields, seasonal hurricane activity
and prediction, etc.
- Evaluation of the CCSM/HYCOM for
seasonal prediction.
- Evaluation of HYCOM as an ocean
component for the CFS.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu
Center for Ocean-LandAtmosphere Studies (COLA)
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Vision: Global society benefits from use-inspired basic research on climate variability,
predictability, & change and free access to research data & tools
Mission: Explore, establish and quantify the predictability of seasonal to decadal
variability in a changing climate
Support: COLA is a part of IGES, an independent non-profit institute, and is supported by
NSF (lead), NOAA and NASA through a single jointly-peer-reviewed, jointly-funded fiveyear “omnibus” proposal (current: 2004-2008)
Core Competencies:
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Accomplishments:
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Jim Kinter
Evaluation of and experimentation with Nation’s climate models
Scientific leadership in S-I predictability
Collaboration with PhD program in Climate Dynamics at GMU
GrADS and GDS - highly-valued, widely-used information technology
COLA viewed as major interagency program (e.g. US National Research Council report)
Quantified dynamical model seasonal prediction (DSP) capability
Advanced multi-model ensemble
Demonstrated that O-A and L-A interactions, with high-frequency noise and low-frequency
climate change, play important roles to enhance predictability
Developed innovative modeling, data analysis and information theory-based strategies for
understanding predictability and improving prediction
http://www.iges.org
COLA Contributions to CTB
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Current
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CFS experiments
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Multi-model experiments
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10 COLA scientists, 2 PhD students and 1 summer intern actively using CFS
Diagnose/model initial tendency errors in GFS/CFS (DelSole CTB project)
Potential predictability of intraseasonal variability
ENSO and the ENSO-monsoon relationship
Bias, bias correction & skill in the Atlantic
CCSM proof-of-concept
Planned
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Multi-model R2O
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O2R - support for CFS and other models
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Jim Kinter
CCSM transition to operations (CTB proposal)
GFDL CM2.1 transition to operations
(collaboration with GFDL)
GMAO forecast diagnosis (R2O in discussion)
Jan ICs
1982-2000
Initial focus on land surface models (tentative)
http://www.iges.org
Center for Science in the Earth
System (UW) ARC
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Integrated research on the impacts of climate on the U.S. Pacific
Northwest by combining and integrating expertise in climate
dynamics, ecological dynamics, hydrologic dynamics, and
institutional and policy analysis
CSES is partially within the Joint Institute (with NOAA) for Study
of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), the UW Regional Integrated
Sciences and Assessments (RISA) center, and the UW ARC
Examples of CTB contributions:
Drafting an MOU with CPC/CTB to include National Surface Water
Monitor as part of U.S. Drought Monitor
 UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System (see below)
 Week-2 NCEP forecast for Pacific Northwest (see below)
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Courtesy - Dennis Lettenmaier
http://www.cses.washington.edu
University of Washington West-wide
Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System
A real-time simulation test-bed for
 climate forecast use in
hydrology and water resources
 satellite data assimilation
 multi-model approaches
 forecast verification
 LDAS-era land surface models
Courtesy - Dennis Lettenmaier
Documenting the skill of the two-week
NCEP forecast for early winter in the
Pacific Northwest
Motivation: Bond and Vecchi associated Madden and Julian Oscillation
(MJO) variability with early-winter warm, wet storms and floods in the
PNW. Floods in general are more likely in ENSO neutral and cold
conditions (like this year).
Approach: Using the Hamill and Whitaker NCEP reforecasts (15-member
ensembles, 15-day lead, updated daily 1979-present):
Calculate the forecast skill in PNW 500 mb
geopotential height for the early winter. Also
stratify for MJO- and ENSO-phase, and
evaluate forecast skill
• Calculate dominant hemispheric patterns of
forecast error and relate to atmospheric flow
patterns and ENSO phase.
• Identify other regions and seasons which
exhibit predictability at ~2-week leads; evaluate
implications for hydrological (flood) forecasts.
• Extend analysis to include precipitation as well
as geopotential height.
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Reforecast 15-day Z500 absolute
mean forecast error, OND
Courtesy - Dennis Lettenmaier
Courtesy - John Roads
ECPC’s Experimental Prediction
System is based on NCEP CFS
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1997: ECPC began making, for the USFS, experimental weekly to seasonal
GSM/RSM predictions for the CONUS using the NCEP R1 GSM/RSM
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2003: ECPC began making, for IRI/CPC, an ensemble (16) of seasonal (7
months) global predictions using the NCEP SFM
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Atmospheric initial conditions came from long term simulations forced by observed
SSTs. Ocean BCs came from IRI SST predictions.
2006: ECPC began making routine ECPM coupled ocean atmosphere
predictions for fisheries applications.
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Initial conditions came from the NCEP GDAS 00UTC analysis. Initial persisted SST
anomalies provided ocean BCs. Observed precipitation drives initial FDI
The MIT ocean model was coupled to NCEP SFM
The ocean initial conditions came from the JPL analysis
2006/7: ECPC G-RSM prediction models
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GSM and RSM consolidated to a single G-RSM model
Noah LSM replaced RII OSU
Prognostic clouds added to G-RSM
Observed precipitation being used to not only update the FDI but also the soil moisture
Streamflow module under development
Courtesy - John Roads
http://ecpc.ucsd.edu
ECPC’s Past and Future
Contributions to CTB
PAST
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2005-2008: Member of CST
2005-2008: ECPC has been diagnosing experimental NCEP CFS/GSM/RSM
ensembles for fire danger applications for USFS, NICC
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The CFS/GSM/RSM initial conditions and SST boundary conditions came from RII and
MOM3 ocean analysis. Observed precipitation used for FDI initial conditions
These experimental forecasts are being provided to NICC as part of its new monthly
forecast effort of US fire danger.
Depending on funding, these experimental firedanger forecasts will continue to be
provided to NICC.
We also plan to continue these experimental firedanger forecasts at ECPC using models
equivalent to CFSnext (e.g. ECPC G-RSM), initialized from GDAS and our own land
surface initialization
FUTURE ??
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2007-?: O2R - Provide part time assistance to CTB WWW and help desk.
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We are planning for our ECPC Webmaster to work part time at NCEP on the CFS
community help desk.
2008-2010: Analyze multi-RCM downscaling of seasonal CFS forecasts
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Depending on funding, we are proposing to develop a pilot multi-RCM model
downscaling of NCEP CFS Dec. forecasts
If this Dec. downscaling provides a successful CFS augmentation, additional initial
months may be tested.
Courtesy - John Roads
http://ecpc.ucsd.edu