Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources

Drought Chasing: An NDMC Perspective
on Future Drought Activities
Michael Hayes
National Drought Mitigation Center
School of Natural Resources
Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC
Acknowledgements
Workshop Planning Committee (David Legler,
Wayne Higgins, Kingste Mo, Mike Halpert, Mark
Svoboda, Dave Gutzler, Ann Fiedler, Mike
Hayes)
Ann Fiedler, Nicole Wall
Deb Wood
NDMC staff and students
Jacki Loomis
Licorice International
Holiday Inn
Nebraska (Here’s What I Said)
Home of the Unicameral
Home of the 6th Great Lake
Sandhills
Kool-Aid, CliffNotes
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), Cabela’s,
Union Pacific (World’s largest rail yard in North
Platte), Valmont Industries
Nebraska (What I Did Not Say)
BEEF
Cranes
Storms
Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL
Photo: Cimarron County, Oklahoma
Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, late June, 2008
Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL
Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL
Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL
Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL
Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC
Look Back…to Look Ahead
Kelly Redmond:
Where are we now?
How did we get here?
What is the historical perspective for the current
situation?
What are the most likely outcomes from the
current situation?
What is it going to be like next week, next
month, next year…?
Look Back…to Look Ahead
Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
Foundation of a drought mitigation plan
Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
Risk and impact assessment
Who and what is at risk and why?
Mitigation and response
Programs and actions to reduce future drought
impacts
Programs and actions during drought events
Look Back…to Look Ahead
Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
Foundation of a drought mitigation plan
Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
Risk and impact assessment
Who and what is at risk and why?
Mitigation and response
Programs and actions to reduce future drought
impacts
Programs and actions during drought events
Prediction
Response
Mitigation
Increasing need for more reliable seasonal forecasts/outlooks
Increasing need for timely, reliable climate/water supply assessments
Increasing need for higher resolution analysis for policy/decision
support
Risk and Impact Assessment
“No systematic collection
and analysis of social,
environmental, and
economic data focused
on the impacts of drought
within the United States
exists today.”
p. 5
Mitigation
Planning
Monitoring
Supply augmentation
Infrastructure improvements
Demand reduction
Education
Communication
Coordination
Legislation
Mitigation
Nebraska examples (1998-2000 Drought
Plan revision to incorporate mitigation
strategies)
Farm Crisis Hotline
Soil Moisture Network
Vulnerable Water Systems
Mitigation
Council of Governors’ Policy Advisors (1997):
The concept of mitigation will be difficult unless
officials understand the economic impacts and
the positive quantitative benefits of mitigation
actions.
Multihazard Mitigation Council Report (2005): “…a dollar
spent…on hazard mitigation...provides the nation about $4
in future benefits.” 1:4 ratio
Act 238 (2007)
$1 million
appropriated for
drought mitigation for
each county
22 projects identified
including: water
system improvements, stormwater
reclamation, ditch
improvements,
wildland fire,
education, monitoring
The Trend Toward Local
River Basin Drought Planning Information
Additional Issues
Gregg Garfin: “Growth”
Colorado: 6-25 acres going out of production every hour
“Not whether Colorado will grow, but how!”
Climate Change
Temperature matters!
Complexity
Andrea Ray: “Conversation”
NIDIS
Individual Livelihoods
“There’s nothing more frightening than being
without water.”
Mayor Campbell, Edina, MO, May 1989