Long Term Adequacy Metrics February 2015 Introduction

Long Term Adequacy Metrics
February 2015
Introduction
The following report provides information on the long term adequacy of the Alberta electric energy
market. The report contains metrics that include tables on generation projects under development and
generation retirements, an annual reserve margin with a five year forecast period, a two year daily supply
cushion, and a two year probabilistic assessment of the AIES. The Long Term Adequacy (LTA) Metrics
provide an assessment and provide information that can be used to facilitate further assessments of long
term adequacy. This report is updated quarterly in February, May, August, and November. Inquires on
the report can be made at [email protected].
Summary of Changes since Previous Report
New Generation and Retirements Metric
Projects completed and removed from list:

Northstone Power – Elmworth (9 MW)
Generation Projects moved to “Active Construction”:

Cenovus – Christina Lake 1E (95 MW)

Shell – Carmon Creek Unit 1 (230 MW)

Shell – Carmon Creek Unit 2 (230 MW)

Shell – Carmon Creek Unit 3 (230 MW)
Generation projects moved to “Regulatory Approval”:

CNRL – Horizon (85 MW)

Alberta Wind Energy – Windy Point (63 MW)
Generation projects that have been added to “Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection,
and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval”:

Terice Energy – Bawmanton DG (15 MW)
Generation projects that have been removed:

TransAlta – Dunvegan (100 MW)
Federal Coal Compliance Schedule:

Table 5 has been added for evaluation in metrics
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Other changes to generation projects:
Project
Change
Genalta – Bellshill
New ISD of Jun-2015 from Q1-2015
Mustus Energy – Mustus Biomass
New ISD of Mar-2016 from Feb-2015
BluEarth Renewables – Hand Hills Wind Farm
New ISD of Oct-2016 from Q4-2014
Grand Prairie – Harmattan Energy Centre
New ISD of Feb-2017 from Dec-2015
Naturener – Wild Rose 1
New ISD of Jun-2016 from May-2016
Enmax – Bonnybrook
New ISD of Aug-2016 from Jun-2016
Naturener – Wild Rose 2
New ISD of Mar-2017 from Nov-2016
Benign Energy – Heritage Wind Farm 1
New ISD of Dec-2018 from Aug-2017
Benign Energy – Heritage Wind Farm 2
New ISD of Dec-2018 from Apr-2018
Suncor – Hand Hills
New ISD of Oct-2016 from Sep-2015
Enel – Riverview
New ISD of Dec-2015 from Nov-2017
Altalink – Energy Storage
New ISD of Dec-2016 from Feb-2016
Eolectric – Welsh Wind
New ISD of Jan-2017 from May-2016
Syncrude – Mildred Lake
New ISD of Jun-2016 from May-2016
BowArk Energy – Drywood
New ISD of Oct-2016 from Jun-2016
BowArk Energy – Queenstown
New ISD of Jun-2016 from Aug-2016
Mainstream Renewable – Wainwright Wind
New ISD of Mar-2017 from Oct-2016
E.ON – Grizzly Bear
New ISD of Dec-2016 from Jan-2017
Sharp Hills – Sharp Hills Wind
New ISD Oct-2017 from Jun-2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Renewable Energy Services – McLaughlin
New ISD of Aug-2017 from Jul-2017
AltaGas – Kent Generation
New ISD of Sep-2016 from Jul-2017
Joss Wind – Jenner Wind
New ISD of Jan-2018 from Sep-2017
Alberta Wind Energy – Old Elm & Pothole Creek
New ISD of May-2017 from May-2018
Rocky Mountain Power – ASISt
New ISD of Jan-2019 from Sep-2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Reserve Margin Metric
The reserve margin has been updated to reflect changes to the project list.
Supply Cushion Metric
The forecast supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period.
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served remaining unchanged at 0
MWh from the previous report. This new value is below the 1600 MWh threshold.
New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric
The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of
development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 4 below. In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market
competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information
on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta.
The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to
existing generation and the retirement of generating units. Changes in project in-service dates (ISDs)
and regulatory stages occur as projects move forward and/or market conditions change. Current
information on connection project ISDs can be found in the AESO Project List and information on power
plant applications can be found at the Alberta Utilities Commission website.
Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity*
ISD*
Enmax
Shepard
Gas
873
Q1-2015
Imperial Oil
Kearl
Gas
84
Q1-2015
Imperial Oil
Cold Lake (Nabiye) 2
Gas
170
Q1-2015
Genalta
West Cadotte
Gas
18.6
Q1-2015
AltaGas
Harmattan
Gas
15
Q2-2015
MFC Energy Corp
Mazeppa Gas Plant
Gas
16.5
May-2015
Genalta
Bellshill
Gas
5
Jun-2015
Cargill
Camrose County
Gas
11.3
Jun-2015
Natural Energy Partners
Ralston
Gas
17
Jul-2015
Slave Lake Pulp
Slave Lake Pulp
Biomass
9
Jul-2015
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity*
ISD*
Shell
Carmon Creek Unit 1
Gas
230
Jul-2015
Blue Earth Inc
Brooks JBS
Gas
14.9
Aug-2015
Cenovus
Christina Lake 1E
Gas
95
Oct-2015
Shell
Carmon Creek Unit 2
Gas
230
Oct-2015
Shell
Carmon Creek Unit 3
Gas
230
Jan-2016
Mustus Energy
Mustus Biomass
Biomass
41
Mar-2016
Sunshine
West Ells
Gas
24
TBD**
Total (MW)
2,084

*Unit Capacity – Expected MW capacity; ISD – Estimated in-service date

**Construction is currently on hold
Table 2: Generation Project with Regulatory Approval
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Alberta Wind Energy
Windy Point
Wind
63
Jan-2016
Maxim Power
Deerland Peaking 1
Gas
186
Mar-2016
Enbridge
Whitetail Peaking
Gas
186
May-2016
Naturener
Wild Rose 1
Wind
210
Jun-2016
Enmax
Bonnybrook
Gas
168
Aug-2016
CNRL
Horizon
Gas
85
Sep-2016
BluEarth Renewables
Hand Hills Wind Farm
Wind
80
Oct-2016
Pteragen
Peace Butte
Wind
120
Dec-2016
ATCO Power
Heartland Power Station 1
Gas
510
Jan-2017
Grand Prairie
Harmattan Energy Centre
Gas
95
Feb-2017
Naturener
Wild Rose 2
Wind
210
Mar-2017
Sponsor(s)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
TransCanada
Saddlebrook
Gas
350
Jun-2017
Maxim Power
Milner 2 Phase 1
Gas
260
Jan-2018
Capital Power
Genesee 4
Gas
525
Jan-2018
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind 1
Wind
100
Dec-2018
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind 2
Wind
250
Dec-2018
Capital Power
Genesee 5
Gas
525
Jan-2019
Maxim Power
Milner 2 Phase 2
Gas
260
Jan-2020
GTE Power
Brooks Power
Solar
15
TBD
Nexen
Long Lake South
Gas
85
TBD
MEG
Christina Lake 3A
Gas
85
TBD
MacKay Operating Corp
MacKay
Gas
85
TBD
Sponsor(s)
Total (MW)
4,453
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
Husky
Muskawa
Gas
25
Oct-2015 (A)
Enel
Riverview
Wind
115
Dec-2015 (A)
BluEarth
Bull Creek DG 1
Wind
26.8
Dec-2015 (A)
Terice Energy
Bawmanton DG
Gas
15
Feb-2016 (A)
Syncrude
Mildred Lake
Gas
85
Jun-2016 (A)
BowArk Energy
Queenstown Power Plant
Gas
80
Jun-2016 (A)
Suncor
Fort Hills
Gas
170
Aug-2016 (A)
Maxim Power
HR Milner Expansion
Gas
90
Sep-2016 (A)
AltaGas
Kent Generation
Gas
100
Sep-2016 (A)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Imperial Oil
Strathcona
Gas
85
Oct-2016 (A)
BowArk Energy
Drywood Power
Gas
18.6
Oct-2016 (A)
Suncor
Hand Hills
Wind
80
Oct-2016 (P)
Altalink
Energy Storage
ES
14
Dec-2016 (A)
E.ON
Grizzly Bear
Wind
120
Dec-2016 (A)
Eolectric
Welsh Wind
Wind
69
Jan-2017 (A)
Mainstream
Renewable
Wainwright Wind Project
Wind
150
Mar-2017 (A)
MEG
Alberta Wind
Energy
Christina Lake 2B4X
Gas
75
May-2017 (A)
Old Elm & Pothole Creek
Wind
300
May-2017 (A)
Renewable Energy
Services
McLaughlin
Wind
47
Aug-2017 (A)
Sharp Hills
Sharp Hills
Wind
300
Oct-2017 (A)
Focus Equities
Great Spirit
Gas
1000
Dec-2017 (A)
Joss Wind
Jenner Wind
Wind
120
Jan-2018 (A)
ATCO
Heartland Power Station 2
Gas
510
Mar-2018 (A)
Cenovus
Narrows Lake
Gas
50
Apr-2018 (A)
Enmax
Calgary Energy Centre Peaking
Gas
150
Jun-2018 (A)
TransAlta
Sundance 7
Gas
850
Jun-2018 (P)
Rocky Mountain Power
ASISt
ES
160
Jan-2019 (A)
TransAlta
Sundance 8
Gas
700
TBD (C)
TransAlta
Sundance 9
Gas
700
TBD (C)
Total (MW)
6,205
* - (P):Power Plant application filed with AUC, (A): AESO application in process, (C): Corporate announcement
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Table 4: Generation Projects that have Announced to Retired
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit Capacity
Retire Date
Status
N/A
Total (MW)
Federal Coal Compliance Schedule
In 2012, the federal government approved the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired
Generation of Electricity Regulations. The regulation requires that coal-fired generation units meet a GHG
emissions intensity target once it reaches end of life. The decision to retire a coal unit could also be
impacted by several potential drivers, including the economics of plant operations, contractual
agreements, and provincial and federal legislation. The AESO has adopted the federal compliance dates
as retirement dates to evaluate metrics included in this report.
Table 5: Federal Coal Compliance Schedule
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit Capacity
In Service
Date
ATCO
Battle River 3
Coal
149
1969
Dec-2019
TransAlta
Sundance 1
Coal
288
1970
Dec-2019
TransAlta
Sundance 2
Coal
288
1970
Dec-2019
Maxim
HR Milner
Coal
144
1972
Dec-2019
Total (MW)
1
Federal Compliance
1
Date
869
Federal Compliance Dates are based upon the applicable provisions of the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations, as
set forth in the Canada Gazette Vol. 146, No.19.
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Reserve Margin Metric
The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand
in Alberta. It is a calculation of the firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of
the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak. Information on the
annual peak demand within the reserve margin can be found at Forecasting. Firm generation is defined
as installed and future generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity and behind-the-fence
demand and generation, and excludes wind capacity. Three forecast reserve margins are presented,
each with different future supply additions. The supply additions correspond to the stage of the generation
projects in the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric. The metric is graphed with and without
intertie capacity in one reserve margin since full import capability may not always be available at the time
of system peak demand.
Capacity from Sundance 1 and 2 has been excluded from the 2011 and 2012 reserve margin. They
returned to service in late 2013 and are included in the current forecast reserve margin values.
Figure 1: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Reserve Margin, 2000 - 2020
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Supply Cushion Metric
The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to
meet peak demand on a daily basis. The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm
supply minus daily peak demand. Only existing generation and generation under construction are used
within the metric. The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak
rather than annual and incorporates planned outages. Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply
cushion for the next two years. Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well
as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow) which are not included in the supply cushion
calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply. When the supply cushion is negative
in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated
in Figure 3.
Figure 2: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Supply Cushion,
February 1, 2015 to January 31, 2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Figure 3: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Peak Demand and Available Supply,
February 1, 2015 to January 31, 2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2015
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of
encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by
incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into
the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load
may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders,
when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW
shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply
adequacy gap without impacting investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in
Table 5 does not reach the threshold.
Table 6: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall, February 1, 2015 to January 31, 2017
Worst Shortfall Hour (MW)
# of Hours in Shortfall
Total Energy Not Served (MWh)
0
0
0
Note: Values are rounded and represent average outputs