Long Term Adequacy Metrics November 2014 Introduction

Long Term Adequacy Metrics
November 2014
Introduction
The following report provides information on the long term adequacy of the Alberta electric energy
market. The report contains metrics that include tables on generation projects under development and
generation retirements, an annual reserve margin with a five year forecast period, a two year daily supply
cushion, and a two year probabilistic assessment of the AIES. The Long Term Adequacy Metrics provide
an assessment and provide information that can be used to facilitate further assessments of long term
adequacy. This report is updated quarterly in February, May, August, and November. Inquires on the
report can be made at [email protected].
Summary of Changes since Previous Report
New Generation and Retirements Metric
Projects completed and removed from list:

N/A
Generation Projects moved to “Active Construction”:

Genalta – Bellshill (5 MW)

Cargill Ltd – Camrose County (11.3 MW)
Generation projects moved to “Regulatory Approval”:

ATCO Power – Heartland Power Station 1 (400 MW)

Capital Power – Genesee 4 (450 MW)

Capital Power – Genesee 5 (450 MW)
Generation projects that have been added to “Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection,
and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval”:

Daishowa-Marubeni – Daishowa (48.5 MW)

Imperial Oil – Strathcona (85 MW)

MEG – Christina Lake 2B4X (75 MW)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014

Sharp Hills – Sharp Hills (300 MW)

Enmax – Calgary Energy Centre 3 (150 MW)
Generation projects that have been removed:

N/A
Other changes to generation projects:
Project
Change
Genalta – West Cadotte
New ISD of Jan-2015 from Oct-2014
Compton Petroleum – Mazzepa Gas Plant
New ISD of Mar-2015 from Dec-2014
CNRL – Horizon
New ISD of Sep-2016 from Sep-2015
E.ON – Grizzly Bear
New ISD of Jan-2017 from Nov-2016
Renewable Energy Services - McLaughlin
New ISD of Jul-2017 from Mar-2016
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Reserve Margin Metric
The reserve margin has been updated to reflect changes to the project list.
Supply Cushion Metric
The forecast supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period.
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served remaining unchanged at 0
MWh from the previous report. This new value is below the 1600 MWh threshold.
New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric
The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of
development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 4 below. In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market
competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information
on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta.
The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to
existing generation and the retirement of generating units. Changes in project in-service dates (ISDs)
and regulatory stages occur as projects move forward and/or market conditions change. Current
information on connection project ISDs can be found in the AESO Project List and information on power
plant applications can be found at the Alberta Utilities Commission website.
Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity*
ISD*
Slave Lake Pulp
Slave Lake Pulp
Biomass
9
Q4-2014
Imperial Oil
Cold Lake (Nabiye) 2
Gas
170
Q4-2014
Imperial Oil
Kearl
Gas
100
Dec-2014
Enmax
Shepard Energy Centre
Gas
851
Q1-2015
Genalta
Bellshill
Gas
5
Q1-2015
Mustus Energy
Mustus Biomass
Biomass
41
Feb-2015
Sunshine
West Ells
Gas
24
Q4-2015**
Cargill Ltd
Camrose County
Gas
11.3
Jun-2015
Total (MW)

*Unit Capacity – Expected MW capacity; ISD – Estimated in-service date

**Construction is currently on hold
1,211
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Table 2: Generation Project with Regulatory Approval
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
BluEarth Renewables
Bull Creek
Wind
115
Q4-2014*
BluEarth Renewables
Hand Hills Wind Farm
Wind
80
Q4-2014*
Genalta
West Cadotte
Gas
18.6
Jan-2015
Compton Petroleum
Mazzepa Gas Plant
Gas
16.5
Mar-2015
Blue Earth Inc.
Brooks JBS
Gas
14.9
Aug-2015
Cenovus
Christina Lake 1E
Gas
95
Oct-2015
Nexen
Long Lake South Kinosis
Gas
85
Dec-2015
Grand Prairie
Harmattan Energy Centre
Gas
95
Dec-2015
MEG
Christina Lake 3A
Gas
85
Jan-2016
Maxim Power
Deerland Peaking 1
Gas
186
Mar-2016
Naturener
Wild Rose 1
Wind
210
May-2016
Enmax
Bonnybrook
Gas
168
Jun-2016
Naturener
Wild Rose 2
Wind
210
Nov-2016
Pteragen
Peace Butte
Wind
120
Dec-2016
ATCO Power
Heartland Power Station 1
Gas
400
Jan-2017
MacKay Operating
MacKay
Gas
85
Jun-2017
TransCanada
Saddlebrook
Gas
350
Jun-2017
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind Farm 1
Wind
100
Aug-2017
Maxim Power
Milner 2 Phase 1
Gas
260
Jan-2018
Capital Power
Genesee 4
Gas
525
Jan-2018
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind Farm 2
Wind
250
Apr-2018
Capital Power
Genesee 5
Gas
525
Jan-2019
Maxim Power
Milner 2 Phase 2
Gas
260
Jan-2020
Natural Energy Partners
Ralston Facility
Gas
20
TBD
GTE Power
Brooks Solar
Solar
15
TBD
Sponsor(s)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Sponsor(s)
TransAlta
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Dunvegan
Hydro
100
TBD
Total (MW)
* ISD reflects October Project List but projects are anticipated to be delayed
4,389
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
Northstone Power
Elmworth
Gas
10
Q4-2014 (A)
Suncor
Wintering Hills Storage
ES
3
May-2015 (A)
Shear Wind
Willowridge
Wind
100
Jun-2015 (P)
Suncor
Hand Hills
Wind
80
Sept-2015 (P)
Husky
Muskawa
Gas
25
Oct-2015 (A)
Alberta Wind Energy
Windy Point
Wind
63
Nov-2015 (A)
Enel
Riverview
Wind
115
Nov-2017 (A)
Veresen
Strathcona Centre
Gas
100
Dec-2015 (A)
Shell
Carmon Creek 1
Gas
200
Jan-2016 (A)
Shell
Carmon Creek 2
Gas
200
Jan-2016 (A)
Shell
Carmon Creek 3
Gas
200
Jan-2016 (A)
Altalink
Energy Storage
ES
14
Feb-2016 (A)
BowMont Capital
WhiteTail Peaking
Gas
200
May-2016 (A)
Maxim Power
HR Milner Expansion
Gas
90
May-2016 (A)
Eolectric
Welsh Wind
Wind
69
May-2016 (A)
Syncrude
Mildred Lake
Gas
85
May-2016 (A)
BowArk Energy
Drywood Power
Gas
18.6
Jun-2016 (A)
BowArk Energy
Queenstown Power Plant
Gas
80
Aug-2016 (A)
Daishowa-Marubeni
Daishowa Phase 2
Biomass
48.5
Aug-2016 (A)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Suncor
Fort Hills
Gas
170
Aug-2016 (P)
CNRL
Horizon – Phase 2
Gas
85
Sept-2016 (C)
Imperial Oil
Strathcona
Gas
85
Sept-2016 (A)
Mainstream
Renewable
Wainwright Wind Project
Wind
150
Oct-2016 (A)
E.ON
Grizzly Bear
Wind
120
Jan-2017 (A)
MEG
Christina Lake 2B4X
Gas
75
May-2017 (A)
Sharp Hills
Sharp Hills
Wind
300
Jun-2017 (A)
AOSC
Dover North
Gas
85
Jun-2017 (A)
Renewable Energy
Services
McLaughlin
Wind
47
Jul-2017 (A)
AltaGas
Kent Generation
Gas
100
Jul-2017 (A)
Turning Point
Turning Point Hydro
Hydro
150
Aug-2017 (A)
Joss Wind
Jenner Wind
Wind
120
Sep-2017 (A)
Focus Equities
Great Spirit
Gas
1000
Dec-2017 (A)
Invenergy
Schuler Wind
Wind
150
Dec-2017 (A)
ATCO Power
Heartland Power Station 2
Gas
400
Mar-2018 (A)
Alberta Wind Energy
Old Elm & Pothole Creek
Wind
300
May-2018 (A)
Enmax
Calgary Energy Centre Peaking
Gas
150
Jun-2018 (A)
TransAlta
Sundance 7
Gas
850
Jun-2018 (P)
Rocky Mountain Power
ASISt
ES
160
Sep-2017 (A)
AOSC
Dover West
Gas
100
Jul-2019 (A)
ATCO Power
Heartland Power Station 3
Gas
400
Mar-2020 (A)
TransAlta
Sundance 8
Gas
700
TBD (C)
TransAlta
Sundance 9
Gas
700
TBD (C)
Total (MW)
8,098
* - (P):Power Plant application filed with AUC, (A): AESO application in process, (C): Corporate announcement
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Table 4: Generation Projects that have Announced to Retired
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit Capacity
Retire Date
Status
Alberta Power
(2000) Ltd
Sturgeon 1
Gas
8
2014
Decommissioning
Alberta Power
(2000) Ltd
Sturgeon 2
Gas
8
2014
Decommissioning
Total (MW)
16
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Reserve Margin Metric
The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand
in Alberta. It is a calculation of the firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of
the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak. Information on the
annual peak demand within the reserve margin can be found at Forecasting. Firm generation is defined
as installed and future generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity and behind-the-fence
demand and generation, and excludes wind capacity. Three forecast reserve margins are presented,
each with different future supply additions. The supply additions correspond to the stage of the generation
projects in the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric. The metric is graphed with and without
intertie capacity in one reserve margin since full import capability may not always be available at the time
of system peak demand.
Capacity from Sundance 1 and 2 has been excluded from the 2011 and 2012 reserve margin. They
returned to service in late 2013 and are included in the current forecast reserve margin values.
Figure 1: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Reserve Margin, 2000 - 2019
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Supply Cushion Metric
The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to
meet peak demand on a daily basis. The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm
supply minus daily peak demand. Only existing generation and generation under construction are used
within the metric. The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak
rather than annual and incorporates planned outages. Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply
cushion for the next two years. Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well
as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow) which are not included in the supply cushion
calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply. When the supply cushion is negative
in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated
in Figure 3.
Figure 2: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Supply Cushion,
November 1, 2014 to October 31, 2016
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Figure 3: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Peak Demand and Available Supply,
November 1, 2014 to October 31, 2016
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – November 2014
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of
encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by
incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into
the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load
may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders,
when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW
shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply
adequacy gap without impacting investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in
Table 5 does not reach the threshold.
Table 5: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall, November 1, 2014 to October 31, 2016
Worst Shortfall Hour (MW)
# of Hours in Shortfall
Total Energy Not Served (MWh)
0
0
0
Note: Values are rounded and represent average outputs