Long Term Adequacy Metrics February 2013 Introduction

Long Term Adequacy Metrics
February 2013
Introduction
The following report provides information on the long term adequacy of the Alberta electric energy
market. The report contains metrics that include tables on generation projects under development and
generation retirements, an annual reserve margin with a five year forecast period, a two year daily supply
cushion, and a two year probabilistic assessment of the AIES. The Long Term Adequacy Metrics provide
an assessment and provide information that can be used to facilitate further assessments of long term
adequacy. This report is updated quarterly in February, May, August, and November. Inquires on the
report can be made at [email protected].
Summary of Changes since Previous Report
New Generation and Retirements Metric
Projects completed and removed from list:

None
Generation Projects moved to “Active Construction”:

Sunshine – West Ells (24 MW)
Generation projects moved to “Regulatory Approval”:

None
Generation projects that have been added to “Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection,
and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval”:

Capital Power – CPEC Phase 1 (400 MW)

Capital Power – CPEC Phase 2 (500 MW)

Cenovus – Telephone Lake C (50 MW)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Generation projects that have been removed:

Blood Tribe – Wild Turnip Hill Wind Project (100 MW)

Glenridge – Glenridge Wind development (100 MW)

Firebox Energy – John W. Murray Plant (30 MW)

Piikani Resources Development – Piikani Wind Project (210 MW)

Suncor – Voyageur Upgrader (12.5 MW)

TransAlta – Sundance 3 Uprate (15 MW)

Naturerner – Prairie Home Wind (9 MW)
Other changes to generation projects:
Project
Change
ECB Enviro – Lethbridge Biogas
New ISD of Q2-2013 from Dec-2012
Grizzly – Algar
New ISD of Q2-2013 from Jan-2013
Imperial Oil – Cold Lake (Nabiye 2)
New ISD of Feb-2014 from Jan-2014
Imperial Oil – Kearl
New ISD of Dec-2014 from Nov-2014
Joss Wind – Hand Hills
New ISD of Jul-2014 from Oct-2013
Greengate Power – Blackspring Ridge
New ISD of Dec-2013 from Oct-2013
Maxim Power – HR Milner Expansion
New ISD of Nov-2017 from Aug-2015
GTE – Brooks Power Plant
New ISD of TBD from Jun-2013
Renewables Energy Services – PC006 Wind
New ISD of Jul-2015 from Jul-2013
Suncor – Hand Hills
New ISD of Mar-2014 from Dec-2013
Windlab – Bull Creek
New Sponsor Windlab from BluEarth
Windlab – Bull Creek
New ISD of Feb-2014 from Dec-2013
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
E.ON – Grizzly Bear
New ISD of May-2014 from Oct-2013
E.ON – Vermillion River
New ISD of Oct-2014 from Jan-2014
BowArk Energy – Queenstown Power
New ISD of Sept-2014 from Aug-2014
Reserve Margin Metric
The forecast reserve margin has been updated and now includes 2018.
Supply Cushion Metric
The forecast supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period.
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served increasing to 24 MWh from
21 MWh in the previous report. This new value is below the 1600 MWh threshold.
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric
The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of
development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 4 below. In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market
competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information
on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta.
The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to
existing generation and the retirement of generating units. Changes in project in-service dates (ISDs)
and regulatory stages occur as projects move forward and/or market conditions change. Current
information on connection project ISDs can be found in the AESO Project List and information on power
plant applications can be found at the Alberta Utilities Commission website.
Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity*
ISD*
ECB Enviro
Lethbridge Biogas
Biomass
4
Q2-2013
Grizzly
Algar
Gas
15
Q2-2013
MEG
Christina Lake-Phase 2B
Gas
85
Aug-2013
NRGreen Power
Windfall Compressor Station
Gas
16
Aug-2013
Sunshine
West Ells
Gas
24
Oct-2013
Imperial Oil
Cold Lake (Nabiye) 2
Gas
170
Feb-2014
Mustus Energy
Mustus Biomass
Biomass
41
Sep-2014
Imperial Oil
Kearl-Phase 1
Gas
100
Dec-2014
Enmax
Shepard Energy Centre
Gas
800
May-2015
Total (MW)

Unit Capacity – Expected MW capacity; ISD – Estimated in-service date
1,255
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Table 2: Generation Project with Regulatory Approval
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Alberta Wind Energy
Old Man River Wind Farm
Wind
47
Nov-2013
Greengate Power
Blackspring Ridge Wind
Wind
300
Dec-2013
Maxim Power
Deerland Peaking 1
Gas
90
Jan-2014
Joss Wind
Hand Hills Wind Farm
Wind
78
Jul-2014
Naturener
Wild Rose 1
Wind
200
Jul-2014
Naturener
Wild Rose 2
Wind
200
Jul-2014
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind Farm 1
Wind
100
Sep-2014
Geilectric Inc.
Welsch Wind Farm
Wind
69
May-2015
TransCanada
Saddlebrook
Gas
350
Jun-2015
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind Farm 2
Wind
250
Sep-2015
Nexen
Long Lake South Kinosis
Gas
85
Dec-2015
Enmax
Bonnybrook
Gas
168
Jun-2016
Cenovus
Christina Lake 1E
Gas
95
Dec-2016
Maxim Power
HR Milner Expansion
Coal
500
Nov-2017
TransAlta
Dunvegan
Hydro
100
TBD
Sponsor(s)
Total (MW)
2,632
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
Pteragen
Peace Butte
Wind
116
Oct-2013 (P)
Grand Prairie Gen.
Harmattan Energy Center
Gas
95
Dec-2013 (P)
Windlab
Bull Creek
Wind
115
Feb-2014 (A)
Suncor
Hand Hills
Wind
80
Mar-2014 (P)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
BowMont Capital
Alberta Newsprint
Company
WhiteTail Peaking
Gas
200
May-2014 (A)
Alberta Newsprint Company
Gas
65
May-2014 (A)
E.ON
Grizzly Bear Wind Facility
Wind
120
May-2014 (A)
BowArk Energy
Queenstown Power Plant
Gas
141
Sep-2014(A)
E.ON
Vermillion River Facility
Wind
120
Oct-2014 (A)
Dundurn Corp.
Dundurn
Gas
25
Oct-2014 (A)
Enel
Riverview Wind Farm
Wind
115
Oct-2014 (A)
Old Man Power
Lethbridge Energy Centre
Gas
130
Dec-2014 (A)
Sprott Power
Fort Macleod Wind Facility
Wind
60
Dec-2014 (A)
Acciona
Alberta Wind
Energy
New Dayton
Wind
99
Jan-2015 (A)
Windy Point
Wind
46.8
Apr-2015 (P)
MEG Energy
Mainstream
Renewable
Christina Lake Cogeneration 3A
Gas
80
May-2015 (A)
Wainwright Wind Project
Wind
150
May-2015 (A)
Shear Wind
Willowridge
Wind
100
Jun-2015 (P)
Renewable Energy
Services
PC006 Wind Farm
Wind
75
Jul-2015 (A)
Sprott Power
Fort Macleod
Gas
20
Jul-2015 (A)
CNRL
Horizon – Phase 2
Gas
85
Sept-2015 (C)
Swan Hills Synfuels
Swan Hills Sagitawah
Gas
340
Oct-2015 (P)
Total
Joslyn Mine
Gas
85
Oct-2015 (A)
Shear Wind Inc.
Coyote Ridge – Phase 1
Wind
120
Dec-2015 (A)
Shell
Carmon Creek – Gen 1
Gas
200
Jan-2016 (A)
Shell
Carmon Creek – Gen 2
Gas
200
Jan-2016 (A)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
Shell
Carmon Creek – Gen 3
Gas
200
Jan-2016 (A)
MEG
Alberta Wind
Energy
Surmont – Phase 1
Gas
80
May-2016 (A)
Old Elm & Pothole Creek
Wind
300
Dec-2016 (A)
Shear Wind Inc.
Coyote Ridge – Phase 2
Wind
380
Dec-2016 (A)
Total
Joslyn – Phase 2
Gas
85
Jan-2017 (A)
Cenovus
Narrows Lake – Phase 1A
Gas
30
Apr-2017 (A)
Capital Power
CPEC – Phase 1
Gas
400
May-2017 (C)
AOSC
Dover North
Gas
85
Jun-2017 (A)
AOSC
MacKay
Gas
85
Jun-2017 (A)
Cenovus
Telephone Lake B
Gas
50
Apr-2018 (C)
TransAlta
Sundance 7
Gas
850
2018 (C)
Cenovus
Telephone Lake C
Gas
50
Apr-2019 (C)
Cenovus
Foster Creek – Phase H
Gas
40
Jun-2019 (C)
AOSC
Dover West
Gas
100
Jul-2019 (A)
Capital Power
CPEC – Phase 2
Gas
500
May-2020 (C)
TransAlta
Sundance 8
Gas
700
TBD (C)
TransAlta
Sundance 9
Gas
700
TBD (C)
GTE
Brooks Power Plant
Solar
15
TBD (C)
Total (MW)
1
7,583
* - (P):Power Plant application filed with AUC, (A): AESO application in process, (C): Corporate announcement
1
TransAlta has announced Sundance 7 in-service date could range from 2016-2019. For the LTA metrics, the AESO has included Sundance 7 in the 2018 reserve margin.
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Table 4: Generation Projects that have Announced to Retired
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit Capacity
N/A
Total (MW)
0
Retire Date
Status
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Reserve Margin Metric
The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand
in Alberta. It is a calculation of the firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of
the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak. Information on the
annual peak demand within the reserve margin can be found at Forecasting. Firm generation is defined
as installed and future generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity and behind-the-fence
demand and generation, and excludes wind capacity. Three forecast reserve margins are presented,
each with different future supply additions. The supply additions correspond to the stage of the generation
projects in the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric. The metric is graphed with and without
intertie capacity in one reserve margin since full import capability may not always be available at the time
of system peak demand.
Capacity from Sundance 1 and 2 has been excluded from the 2011 and 2012 reserve margin but included
in the forecast reserve margin values. These units are anticipated to return to service in the fall of 2013.
Figure 1: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Reserve Margin, 2000 - 2018
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Supply Cushion Metric
The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to
meet peak demand on a daily basis. The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm
supply minus daily peak demand. Only existing generation and generation under construction are used
within the metric. The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak
rather than annual and incorporates planned outages. Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply
cushion for the next two years. Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well
as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow) which are not included in the supply cushion
calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply. When the supply cushion is negative
in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated
in Figure 3.
Figure 2: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Supply Cushion,
February 1, 2012 to January 31, 2015
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Figure 3: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Peak Demand and Available Supply,
February 1, 2013 to January 31, 2015
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – February 2013
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of
encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by
incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into
the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load
may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders,
when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW
shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply
adequacy gap without impacting investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in
Table 5 does not reach the threshold.
Table 5: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall, February 1, 2013 to January 31, 2015
Worst Shortfall Hour (MW)
# of Hours in Shortfall
Total Energy Not Served (MWh)
9
0
24
Note: Values are rounded and represent average outputs