Long Term Adequacy Metrics August 2012 Introduction

Long Term Adequacy Metrics August
2012
Introduction
The following report provides information on the long term adequacy of the Alberta electric energy
market. The report contains metrics that include tables on generation projects under development and
generation retirements, an annual reserve margin with a five year forecast period, a two year daily supply
cushion, and a two year probabilistic assessment of the AIES. The Long Term Adequacy Metrics provide
an assessment and provide information that can be used to facilitate further assessments of long term
adequacy. This report is updated quarterly in February, May, August, and November. Inquires on the
report can be made at [email protected].
Summary of Changes since Previous Report
Load Forecast
The forecast demand has been adjusted to include the recently published 2012 Long Term Outlook AIES.
The new forecast is generally lower than the previous demand forecast and has contributed to producing
a more optimistic supply adequacy situation. AIES peak demand values in the updated demand forecast
are approximately 5% lower in the LTA study time frame.
Sundance 1 and 2
On July 23, 2012, after an independent arbitration panel decision was released, TransAlta Corporation
announced that it will rebuild its Sundance 1 and 2 facilities. Both coal-fired generators are expected to
return to service in fall 2013. The current LTA will reflect the arbitration outcome and include these units
for fall 2013.
New Generation and Retirements Metric
Projects completed and removed from list:

AltaGas – Harmattan 2 (17.3 MW)

Enel – Castle Rock Wind Farm (115 MW )

Southern Pacific – McKay River (17 MW)
1
1
Currently operating at 77 MW as per Current Supply and Demand (CSD) page.
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Generation Projects moved to “Active Construction”:

Suncor – Firebag 4 (160 MW)
Generation projects moved to “Regulatory Approval”:

Cenovus – Christina Lake 1E (95 MW)
Generation projects that have been added to “Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection,
and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval”:

BowArk Energy – Queenstown Power Plant (141 MW)

N-Sci Technologies – Alberta Cogen (290 MW)
Generation projects that have been removed:

GTE Power – Brooks Gas-Fired Power Plant (30 MW)
Other changes to generation projects:
Project
Change
NRGreen Power – Windfall Compressor Station
New ISD of Aug-2013 from Nov-2012
Greengate Power – Blackspring Ridge Wind
New ISD of Sep-2013 from Dec-2012
Naturener – Wild Rose 1 & 2
New ISD of Jul-2014 from Jul-2013
Benign Energy – Heritage Wind Farm 1
New ISD of Sep-2014 from Sep-2013
Benign Energy – Heritage Wind Farm 2
New ISD of Sep-2015 from Sep-2014
Shear Wind – Willowridge Wind Farm
New Sponsor – Shear Wind from Vindt Resources
Old Man Power – Lethbridge Energy Centre
New Sponsor – Old Man Power from N-Sci Tech
Suncor – Schuler Wind Farm
New ISD of Jan-2015 from Aug-2014
Glenridge – Glenridge Wind Dev.
New ISD of Sep-2015 from Jun-2014
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Reserve Margin Metric
The forecast reserve margin has been updated. For most data points the reserve margin increased from
May 2012 report.
Supply Cushion Metric
The forecast supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period.
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served decreasing to 93 MWh
from 686 MWh in the previous report. This new value is below the 1600 MWh threshold.
New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric
The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of
development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 4 below. In Alberta’s deregulated electricity market
competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information
on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta.
The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to
existing generation and the retirement of generating units. Changes in project in-service dates (ISDs)
and regulatory stages occur as projects move forward and/or market conditions change. Current
information on connection project ISDs can be found in the AESO Project List and information on power
plant applications can be found at the Alberta Utilities Commission website.
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity*
ISD*
Capital Power
Halkirk Wind Farm
Wind
150
Oct-2012
Suncor
Firebag 4
Gas
160
Oct-2012
ECB Enviro
Lethbridge Biogas
Biomass
4
Dec-2012
MEG
Christina Lake-Phase 2B
Gas
85
Mar-2013
Naturener
Prairie Home-Phase 1
Wind
9
Mar-2013
Imperial Oil
Cold Lake (Nabiye) 2
Gas
170
Jan-2014
Imperial Oil
Kearl-Phase 1
Gas
100
Nov-2014
Enmax
Shepard Energy Centre
Gas
800
May-2015
Total (MW)

1,478
st
Unit Capacity – Expected MW capacity; ISD – Estimated in-service date (month defaulted to July 1 in metrics if applicable)
Table 2: Generation Projects with Regulatory Approval
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
TransAlta
Keephills 1 Uprate
Coal
23
Q3-2012
TransAlta
Sundance 3 Uprate
Coal
15
Dec-2012
NRGreen Power
Windfall Compressor Station
Gas
16
Aug-2013
Greengate Power
Blackspring Ridge Wind
Wind
300
Sep-2013
Alberta Wind Energy
Old Man River Wind Farm
Wind
47
Nov-2013
Maxim Power
Deerland Peaking 1
Gas
90
Jan-2014
Mustus Energy
Mustus Energy Biomass Generator
Biomass
41
Mar-2014
Naturener
Wild Rose 1
Wind
200
Jul-2014
Naturener
Wild Rose 2
Wind
200
Jul-2014
Bonnybrook
Gas
168
Aug-2014
Heritage Wind Farm 1
Wind
100
Sep-2014
Sponsor(s)
Enmax
Benign Energy
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Table 2: Generation Projects with Regulatory Approval
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD
Geilectric Inc.
Welsch Wind Farm
Wind
69
May-2015
Maxim Power
HR Milner
Coal
460
Aug-2015
TransCanada
Saddlebrook
Gas
350
Sep-2015
Benign Energy
Heritage Wind Farm 2
Wind
250
Sep-2015
Nexen
Long Lake South Kinosis
Gas
85
Dec-2015
Cenovus
Christina Lake 1E
Gas
95
Mar-2016
TransAlta
Dunvegan
Hydro
100
TBD
Deerland Peaking 2
Gas
90
TBD
Sponsor(s)
Maxim Power
Total (MW)
2,699
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
GTE Power
Brooks Power Plant
Solar
15
Dec-2012 (P)
Grizzly
Algar
Gas
85
Jan-2013 (P)
Sunshine
West Ells
Gas
15
Jan-2013 (P)
Firebox Energy
John W. Murray Plant
Biomass
30
Apr-2013 (C)
Renewable Energy
Services
PC006 Wind Farm
Wind
75
Jul-2013 (A)
Shear Wind
Willowridge
Wind
100
Aug-2013 (P)
AOSC
Dover West – Phase 1
Gas
100
Sep-2013 (A)
Pteragen
Peace Butte
Wind
116
Oct-2013 (A)
E.ON
Grizzly Bear Wind Facility
Wind
120
Oct-2013 (A)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
Joss Wind
Hand Hills
Wind
80
Dec-2013 (A)
Windlab
Bull Creek
Wind
130
Dec-2013 (A)
Suncor
Hand Hills
Wind
80
Dec-2013 (P)
Grand Prairie Gen.
Harmattan Energy Center
Gas
95
Dec-2013 (P)
E.ON
Vermillion River Facility
Wind
120
Jan-2014 (A)
Old Man Power
Lethbridge Energy Centre
Gas
130
Jan-2014 (A)
BowMont Capital
Mainstream
Renewable
WhiteTail Peaking
Gas
200
May-2014 (A)
Wainwright Wind Project
Wind
150
Jun-2014 (A)
Swan Hills Synfuels
Swan Hills Sagitawah
Gas
340
Jul-2014 (P)
BowArk Energy
Queenstown Power Plant
Gas
141
Aug-2014(A)
Enel
Riverview Wind Farm
Wind
115
Oct-2014 (A)
Enel
Alberta HWY 785 Wind Farm
Wind
235
Nov-2014 (A)
Acciona
New Dayton
Wind
99
Dec-2014 (A)
N-Sci Technologies
Alberta Cogen 2
Gas
290
Jan-2015(A)
Total
Joslyn Mine
Gas
85
Jan-2015 (A)
Suncor
Schuler
Wind
80
Jan-2015 (A)
Fort Macleod
Nakoda Oil and
Gas
Alberta Wind
Energy
Fort Macleod Wind Facility
Wind
99
Mar-2015 (A)
Stoney Nakoda Power Station
Gas
285
Apr-2015 (A)
Windy Point
Wind
46.8
Apr-2015 (P)
TransAlta
Sundance 7
Gas
850
Apr-2015 (A)
MEG Energy
Piikani Resources
Development
Christina Lake Cogeneration 3A
Gas
80
May-2015 (A)
Piikani Wind Project
Wind
210
May-2015 (A)
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or
Applied for Regulatory Approval
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit
Capacity
ISD*
Blood Tribe
Wild Turnip Hill Wind Project
Wind
100
Jun-2015 (A)
CNRL
Horizon – Phase 2
Gas
85
Sept-2015 (C)
Glenridge
Glenridge Wind Development
Wind
100
Sep-2015 (A)
Shear Wind Inc.
Coyote Ridge – Phase 1
Wind
120
Dec-2015 (A)
MEG
Surmont – Phase 1
Gas
80
May-2016 (A)
Osum
Tiaga – Phase 1
Gas
39
Jun-2016 (C)
AOSC
Dover North
Gas
85
Sep-2016 (A)
Shell
Alberta Wind
Energy
Carmon Creek - Phase 1
Gas
170
Oct-2016 (A)
Old Elm & Pothole Creek
Wind
300
Dec-2016 (A)
Shear Wind Inc.
Coyote Ridge – Phase 2
Wind
380
Dec-2016 (A)
Total
Joslyn – Phase 2
Gas
85
Jan-2017 (A)
Suncor
Voyageur Upgrader
Gas
12.5
Jan-2017 (A)
Cenovus
Narrows Lake – Phase 1A
Gas
30
Apr-2017 (A)
AOSC
MacKay
Gas
85
Jun-2017 (A)
TransAlta
Sundance 8
Gas
700
Jan-2018 (C)
Cenovus
Foster Creek – Phase H
Gas
40
Jun-2019 (A)
TransAlta
BluEarth
Renewables
Sundance 9
Gas
700
Jan-2021 (C)
BluEarth Wind Facility
Wind
70
TBD
Green Energy
Solutions
Waste Power Facility
Biomass
20
TBD
Total (MW)
7,798
* - (P):Power Plant application filed with AUC, (A): AESO application in process, (C): Corporate announcement
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Table 4: Generation Projects that have Announced to Retired
Sponsor(s)
Project Name
Fuel
Unit Capacity
N/A
Total (MW)
0
Retire Date
Status
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Reserve Margin Metric
The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand
in Alberta. It is a calculation of the firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of
the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak. Information on the
annual peak demand within the reserve margin can be found at Forecasting. Firm generation is defined
as installed and future generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity and behind-the-fence
demand and generation, and excludes wind capacity. Three forecast reserve margins are presented,
each with different future supply additions. The supply additions correspond to the stage of the generation
projects in the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric. The metric is graphed with and without
intertie capacity in one reserve margin since full import capability may not always be available at the time
of system peak demand.
Capacity from Sundance 1 and 2 has been excluded from the 2011 and 2012 reserve margin but included
in the forecast reserve margin values. These units are currently under repair and will not return to service
until fall 2013.
Figure 1: Alberta Interconnected Electric System Reserve Margin, 2000 - 2017
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Supply Cushion Metric
The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to
meet peak demand on a daily basis. The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm
supply minus daily peak demand. Only existing generation and generation under construction are used
within the metric. The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak
rather than annual and incorporates planned outages. Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply
cushion for the next two years. Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well
as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow) which are not included in the supply cushion
calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply. When the supply cushion is negative
in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated
in Figure 3.
Figure 2: Alberta Interconnected Electric System Daily Supply Cushion,
August 1, 2012 to July 31, 2014
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Figure 3: Alberta Interconnected Electric System Daily Peak Demand and Available Supply,
August 1, 2012 to July 31, 2014
Long Term Adequacy Metrics – August 2012
Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric
The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of
encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by
incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into
the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load
may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders,
when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW
shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply
adequacy gap without impacting investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in
Table 5 does not reach the threshold.
Table 5: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall, August 1, 2012 to July 31, 2014
Worst Shortfall Hour (MW)
# of Hours in Shortfall
Total Energy Not Served (MWh)
30
1
93
Note: Values are rounded and represent average outputs