ESCAP Workshop on DRR Policy Gap and Planning

ESCAP Workshop on DRR Policy Gap and Planning
ADB-ESCAP-ISOC Study: Unleashing the Potential
of the Internet in Central Asia & Beyond
8 March , 2016 | UNESCAO Office in Bangkok I Thailand
Duangthip Chomprang ([email protected])
Asia-Pacific Regional Bureau
Key Findings
• Regional Connectivity & Resources : Infrastructure, Coverage,
Capacity, Performance
• Regional Network Resiliency
• Strategy and Policy Recommendations Summary
2
Socio-economic development indicators
Georgia
GDP Per Capita: $3,605
Population: 4.50 mil
Median Age: 37.7
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
GDP Per Capita: $7,812
Population: 9.54 mil
Median Age: 30.1
Uzbekistan
GDP Per Capita: $2,038
Population: 30.74 mil
Median Age: 27.1
Armenia
GDP Per Capita: $3,505
Population: 2.98 mil
Median Age: 33.7
Afghanistan
GDP Per Capita: $666
Population: 31.28 mil
Median Age: 18.1
Kyrgyzstan
GDP Per Capita: $1,269
Population: 5.83 mil
Median Age: 25.7
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
GDP Per Capita: $9,032
Population: 5.31 mil
Median Age: 26.6
GDP Per Capita: $12,276
Population: 17.29 mil
Median Age: 29.7
GDP Per Capita: $1,099
Population: 8.41 mil
Median Age: 23.5
Pakistan
GDP Per Capita: $1,334
Population: 185.13 mil
Median Age: 22.6
3
International and Regional Bandwidth
Three Distinct Clusters
Cluster 1:
Majority access
(>50%)
Cluster 2:
Partial access
(30-50%)
Cluster 3:
Low access
(<30%)
Country
Country Income
Classification* (2014)
% of Internet Users
(2014)
Azerbaijan (AZ)
Upper-mid (USD17,516)
61%
Kazakhstan (KZ)
Upper-mid (USD24,205)
55%
Georgia (GE)
Armenia (AM)
Uzbekistan (UZ)
Kyrgyzstan (KY)
Pakistan (PK)
Tajikistan (TJ)
Turkmenistan (TM)
Afghanistan (AF)
Lower-mid (USD7,582)
Lower-mid (USD8,138)
Lower-mid (USD5,576)
Lower-mid (USD3,322)
Lower-mid (USD4,842)
Low-income (USD2,655)
Upper-mid (USD15,474)
Low-income (USD1,976)
49%
46%
44%
28%
14%
17%
12%
6%
With some countries
“underperforming”'
5
• Why are some countries
performing better?
• Why are some countries
underperforming?
• What are the constraints?
• What can mobilize growth?
• What are the impacts on
the rest of the economy?
6
Transitioning to Broadband
Gaps exacerbate, rankings shift…
Avg. Developing countries = 7%
Avg. ASEAN = 3%
Global Average
Avg. Developing countries = 39%
Avg. ASEAN = 30%
Global Average
Regional Average
Regional Average
7
Connectivity by Region
8
Partially the result of avail. bandwidth and speed
BB per capital is even lower
23.3
ASEAN Avg. =10
12.4
NA
As demand increases these constraints will become more limiting
9
Demand for int’l content already disproportionately strong
Country
Top 5 Websites by Traffic
Afghanistan*
Facebook.com
Google.com
Google.com.af
Youtube.com
Yahoo.com
Armenia
Facebook.com
Google.com
Youtube.com
Google.am
Ok.ru
Azerbaijan
Google.az
Facebook.com
Youtube.com
Google.com
Mail.ru
Georgia
Facebook.com
Youtube.com
Google.com
Baidu.ge
Ok.ru
Kazakhstan
Mail.ru
Vk.com
Youtube.com
Google.com
Yandex.kz
Kyrgyzstan*
Ok.ru
Mail.ru
Youtube.com
Google.com
Vk.com
Pakistan
Google.com.pk
Facebook.com
Google.com
Dailymotion.co
Yahoo.com
Tajikistan*
Mail.ru
Google.com.tj
Ok.ru
Google.com
Vk.com
Turkmenistan*
Ok.ru
Mail.ru
Google.com
Vk.com
Google.tm
Uzbekistan
Google.com
Mail.ru
Ok.ru
Facebook.com
Youtube.com
10
… without effective supply and competitive transit,
prices remain high and take up remains low…
Note: Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzebekistan outlier status (largely due to dominance
of incumbent)
11
Cluster 1: good coverage, affordable access competitive mobile
Country
Coverage
Cost
Institutional Conditions
Azerbaijan
Majority coverage for
mobile BB (80% of pop.,
~70% territory)
Affordable for both fixed
and mobile BB (0.7% and
0.4% GNI/capita, PPP)
Fixed BB: state incumbent dominated
Mobile BB: competitive
Kazakhstan
Majority coverage for
mobile BB (70% of pop.)
Affordable for both fixed
and mobile BB (1.1% and
0.3% GNI/cap, PPP)
Fixed BB: state incumbent dominated
Mobile BB: competitive
12
Cluster 2: where competitive, access improving, cost affordable
Country
Coverage
Cost
Institutional Conditions
Armenia
Majority coverage for both
mobile BB (94-98% of territory)
and fixed BB (all major cities)
Affordable for fixed and mobile BB Fixed BB: competitive
(1.2% and 0.4% GNI/cap PPP)
Mobile BB: competitive
Georgia
Majority coverage for mobile BB
(86% of population)
Fixed BB: state incumbent
Affordable for fixed and mobile BB
dominated, competitive ISP market
(1.4% and 0.6% GNI/cap PPP)
Mobile BB: competitive
Partial coverage for mobile BB
Uzbekistan
(39% of territory)
From expensive for fixed BB (7.7%
GNI/cap PPP) to moderate for
mobile BB (2.1% GNI/cap PPP)
Fixed BB: state incumbent dominated
Mobile BB: duopoly
13
Cluster 3: need to expand coverage and improve affordability
Country
Afghanistan
Kyrgyzstan
Pakistan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Coverage
Very limited coverage for fixed BB (ADSL
and VSAT only)
Partial coverage for mobile BB (major
cities)
Limited coverage for fixed BB (Bishkek
and larger cities only)
Partial coverage for mobile BB (>60% of
population)
Partial coverage fixed BB
(2000 cities for ADSL)
Limited coverage for mobile BB
(30-66 cities)
Limited coverage for fixed BB (major
cities only)
Majority coverage for mobile BB (90% of
pop.)
Very limited coverage for fixed BB (ADSL
in Ashgabat only)
Partial coverage for mobile BB (larger
cities only)
Cost
Institutional Constraints
From unaffordable for fixed BB (42.2%
GNI/cap PPP) to expensive for mobile
BB (5.0% GNI/cap PPP)
Fixed BB: state dominated
incumbent, competitive ISP
market
Mobile BB: competitive
Moderate for fixed and mobile BB (2.2%
GNI/cap PPP)
Fixed BB: state dominated
incumbent
Mobile BB: competitive
From expensive for fixed BB (6.9%
GNI/cap PPP) to affordable for mobile
BB (0.9% GNI/cap PPP)
Fixed BB: state dominated
incumbent
Mobile BB: competitive
From unaffordable for fixed BB (26.4%
Fixed BB: state dominated
GNI/cap PPP) to moderate for mobile BB incumbent
(4.9% GNI/cap PPP)
Mobile BB: competitive
From expensive for fixed BB (14.2%
GNI/cap PPP) to affordable for mobile
BB (3.8% GNI/cap PPP)
Fixed BB: state dominated
incumbent
Mobile BB: state dominated
incumbent
14
Infographics
15
Least Affordable to Most …... (Supply Side)
Country
Avg. Internet Transit Cost Per Mth (USD), %
Traffic via incumbent
IXP
1. Uzbekistan*
347 per Mbps,
1
2. Tajikistan*
More than 100 per Mbps, 45%
1
3.Turkmenistan*
More than 100 per Mbps, 97%
4. Pakistan
More than 14 -100 per Mbps, Volume
5. Kyrgyz Republic*
More than 30-100 per Mbps, 43%
6. Afghanistan*
35 per Mbps
1 (inactive)
7. Azerbaijan
20 per Mbps, 90%
1
8. Georgia
15 per Mbps, 37%
-
9. Kazakhstan*
15 per Mbps, 87%
1
10. Armenia
15 per Mbps
1
-
16
Regional Connectivity
1. Unaffordable fixed BB in most countries including International bandwidth
•Network Coverage remains patchy (Fixed BB) where infra. development needs catching up with
wireless BB (especially in rural and underserved areas): Cluster 2, 3
•Backhaul network and public Wifi to alleviate congestions and hand off in urban and cities: Cluster
1,2,3 (Rural vs. Urban connectivity)
• Cross-border connectivity and resource sharing among neighbouring countries needs to be
promoted: Cluster 1,2,3. (alleviate duplicating capital investment, network redundancy)
•Countries with liberal telecom markets tend to deliver relatively better service, price and network
coverage in the long run. More players (ISP). No Internet taxes/tariffs.
2. Independent telecom regulators (Cluster 1) supports greater diversification in service and choice
for users.
3. Facilitating more carrier neutral IXPs in the region to alleviate choke-points and raise industry
standard (Cluster 2,3) – Why IXP? Visit ISOC IXP tool kit:
4. Lack of a regional/national built in network redundancy especially in times of crisis and disaster
(Cluster 1,2,3)
17
Connectivity Risk Reduction
• What are the risks?
• Mitigation Strategy
• Network Resiliency
18
Central Asia : Terresterial Connectivity Poverty Region
http://mediafiles.pccwglobal.com/images/maps/Global_Map.jpg
19
Landlocked region depending on a few terrestrial
cables
Source: ITU Interactive Terrestrial Transmission/ESCAP Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway Maps, http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/
20
Cable Severed
When a communications cable system used for IP connectivity fails, two things can
happen:
•Networks become unreachable, meaning they disappear from the Internet; or
•Traffic is rerouted
According to Global Marine System study, 75% of all faults are caused by external
aggression. Of these, 3 out of 4 were attributable to human activities such as fishing,
anchors and dredging. The remaining were due to natural disasters and extreme
climate change.
21
• Wednesday, 23 January 2008 (exact time unknown):
FALCON cable, segment 7b damaged (Persian Gulf)
Note: This is one week prior to the Mediterranean outrages.
• Wednesday, 30 January 2008, 04:30 (UTC):
SEA-ME-WE-4 cable, segment 4/Alexandria-Marseilles, 25 kilometers from Alexandria, Egypt.
• Wednesday, 30 January 2008, 08:00 (UTC):
FLAG Europe-Asia cable (FEA), segment D (EG-IT) cut approximately 8.3 kilometers from
Alexandria, Egypt
• Friday, 1 February 2008, 05:59 (UTC):
FALCON cable, segments 2 and 7a (AE-OM) cut approximately 56 kilometers from Dubai, UAE
• Friday, 1 February 2008 (exact time unknown):
Unidentified cable, between Halul (QA) and Das (UAE)
• Friday, 8 February 2008 (exact time unknown):
SEA-ME-WE-4 repair completed
• Saturday, 9 February 2008, 18:00 (UTC):
FEA segment D repair completed
• Sunday, 10 February 2008, 10:00 (UTC):
FALCON cable repair completed
• Thursday, 14 February 2008:
Doha-Halul part of the unidentified QA-UAE cable "to be operational soon"
22
• Networks may become unreachable because no action is taken, meaning
packets fall in a "black hole” i.e. cable severed (several weeks, months)
http://tuoitrenews.vn/society/27677/vietnam-suffers-second-internet-cablecut-in-less-than-4-months
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/12/28/AR2006122800900_pf.html (Taiwan
earthquake, Algeria earthquake)
• Networks may become unreachable because the (only) upstream provider
withdraws route announcements
• Traffic may be rerouted on the IP level, either by manual reconfiguration or
by routing protocols like BGP reacting to a loss of IP connectivity to
previously preferred routers i.e. June 12, 2015-Malaysia (2 hours)
https://www.digitalnewsasia.com/digital-economy/mcmc-looking-into-tm- 23
outage-behind-global-internet-slowdown
• Power Outages-crippling networks and inter-dependent systems
• Acts of terrorism –Cable Hacking
• Network vulnerabilities – bugs, software, interoperability, etc.
24
Network Resiliency & System Robustness
As the ability to provide and maintain an acceptable level of service in the face of various
faults and challenges to normal operation—i.e. the ability to adapt itself to recover from
a serious failure and more generally to survive in the face of threats. Xie et al.(80)
A robust system will have the ability to resist assaults and insults, so that whatever some
event is throwing at it, it will be unaffected, and a resilient response is not required.
While resilience is to do with coping with the impact of events, robustness is
to do with reducing this impact in the first place. -Chris Hall et al.
25
Resiliency & Efficiency
• Requires redundancy and spare capacity while efficiency is the reverse!
26
27
Fragmented Networks, Patchy Point-to-Point
Connectivity
28
Annex 1: Asia-Pacific Info Superhighway Maps
Legends
29
Afghanistan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Almaty
Astana
Pakistan 1
Pakistan 2
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
In a landlocked region with few transnational cables,
international supply is limited…
• The Trans Asia Europe (TAE) line connects Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
• The Europe-Persian Express Gateway (EPEG) links Frankfurt across Eastern
Europe, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and the Persian Gulf to Barka, Oman.
• The Trans-Eurasian Information Superhighway (TASIM) is expected to
connect the countries of Eurasia from Western Europe to Eastern Asia
including China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, to Germany.
42
Policy Recommendations
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Prioritise and Enable Wireless Access (1:5X)
Identify and Stimulate Nascent Demand
Provide Principles for Network Interconnection and Services Interop
Build Regional Terrestrial Backbone Infrastructure
Promote the Development of Carrier-Neutral IXPs
Improve the Ease of Doing Business (WTO ascension, WB, AIIB, etc.)
Promote Capacity Building – For Policy makers, regulators (Digital
Innovation, IP-based network, world class practices
8. Develop Statistical Benchmarks
9. Promote Infrastructure Sharing (Cross-border/Corridor to Corridor
Exchange)
43
44
45
Digital Innovation Strategies
• Human Resource Development, heart of strategy and 21st Century Solution
(developer, technical know-how, standard, open source community)
• To promote productivity or address social needs and challenges using digital
technology as integrated (multi-sector) solutions
• Digital technology include tools and infrastructure to develop innovation solutions e.g. financial
inclusion, public services, e-Government, e-Procurement, e-Learning/Education, Telemedicine, DRR,
etc.
• Open Internet and Data Policies: as means for economic transformation and building
national competitiveness i.e. Disaster Resiliency, Information Society, Digital Economy,
Knowledge-based Economy, Innovation Economy
• Digital technology adoption (IP based network and platforms) – Big Data, Smart City,
Smart Technology, blockchain technology, etc.
• Technology neutral policies with emerging new solutions: Nanosatellites, Drones, etc.
• Infrastructure: IXPs, Virtual network, Infrastructure sharing, cross-border connectivity
policies
46
Nanosatellite – Build Your Own
• Small scale satellite, weighing 10 kg with the capacity to provide high imaging resolution
from a few metres from Earth rivaling the larger satellites (quality, 3D imaging, etc).
• Optimal for emerging countries with small budget and high customisation.
• Fully owned by the country and accessible 24 hours. Frequency of image capture is 1.5
hours and can be updated in minutes
• Suited to customised functionality for communication relay or Internet links or remote
sensors to monitor pollution, fire forest, earthquake, floods and natural disasters.
An example of nanosatellite for Earth Observation is Athenoxat-1 built by a team of 4
people, which affords day and night imaging at various resolutions from 1km to 25m with
5 imaging payloads that can be used at the same time. If only day imaging is chosen,
resolution of about 5m is possible with the same design. Radio communication is possible
up to 1Mbps.
47
Transitioning to a Digital Economy
49
What is the Digital Economy?
INTERNET
ECONOMY
Interconnectivity
Interoperability
Internet = stand-alone vertical
Economies of scale
DIGITAL
ECONOMY
& SOCIETY
Internet = universal platform
Economies of scope
Digital Economy: transition of traditional industries and non-IT goods
and services beginning to utilize the Internet in their design, production,
distribution and consumption
50
Regional Examples
• Afghanistan: financial inclusion
• Pakistan: mobile money
• Azerbaijan: e-government network
• Kazakhstan: open government
• Pakistan: virtual university campuses
51
E-gov: Status of E-gov Development
0.7283
0.6047
0.5897
0.5472
0.4695
0.4657
Online Service
Component
0.7480
0.5984
0.6142
0.4331
0.4488
0.2756
Telecom Infra
Component
0.5749
0.4261
0.3889
0.4605
0.2333
0.3801
Human Capital
Component
0.8619
0.7895
0.7660
0.7480
0.7264
0.7413
128
0.3511
0.0866
0.2189
0.7478
129
158
173
0.3395
0.2580
0.1900
0.0630
0.3228
0.1811
0.2306
0.1174
0.1472
0.7249
0.3337
0.2418
Country
Ranking
EGDI
KZ
GE
AM
AZ
UZ
KY
28
56
61
68
100
101
TM
TJ
PK
AF
The region needs to upgrade telecom infra but has high levels of human capital
Source: UN Public Administration Country Studies (2014), “UN E-Government Survey 2014”,
52
Examples of Government Innovations
53
Afghanistan – Mobile money extending financial
inclusion…
But m-money products
lack interoperability,
hindering economies of
scale…
Source: Roshan website (2013);
54
Azerbaijan: E-government network
Azerbaijani Service and Assessment Network (ASAN)
Delivering an one-stop-shop for
simpler and and more accessible
government services through an
integrated portal
With built-in objectives that
promote:
- Ministry coordination
- Interoperability among
different government services
- Cashless transaction to
promote transparency and
efficiency
Source: State Agency for Public Services and Social Innovations (2015)
55
Kazakhstan - Open Government
By opening up government
data, KZ government
intents to:
• enhance the
transparency of public
administration
• promote innovative use
of the data to create
new services
• Stimulate economic
growth
Source: Kazakhstan’s E-government Web Portal
56
Pakistan – Branchless banking is growing rapidly…
60%
8
7.54
49%
7
46%
46%
44%
6
50%
43%
40%
5.41
5
4.71
4
30%
4.24
3.83
3
20%
3.48
20%
2
10%
1
0
0%
Dec'13
Mar'14
Jun'14
Total Branchless Banking Accounts (in mil)
Sep'14
Dec'14
Mar'15
but needs to
boost consumer
engagement
beyond OTC to
sustain growth
and impact
Proportion of Active Accounts
Source: State Bank of Pakistan (2015), “Quarterly Branchless Banking Newsletter Jan-Mar 2015”
57
Pakistan: Increasing number of universities are
providing online learning
But challenges remain at
the at the connectivity
level…
•Basic connectivity
•Lack of bandwidth
•Lack of interoperable
platforms and
applications between
schools
Source: Virtual University of Pakistan (2015)
58
Policy Recommendations
Policy Recommendations
1. Prioritise Wireless
Mobile has become the agent of
change and most people coming
online now are doing so via a
mobile device. Outlying or
marginalized individuals and
communities should be
proactively targeted for mobile
connectivity. Internet access and
national digital economy plans
need to be adjusted to recognize
the increasing mobile centricity of
the population.
2. Stimulate
Demand
3. Principles
Policy makers and industry need
to work together on the two
major determinants of demand:
accessibility and affordability.
Governments themselves have
the opportunity to show
leadership in the way digital
services can be delivered,
particularly through egovernment, social protection,
and inclusion (e.g., financial
inclusion) programs. Developing a
National Digital Innovation
Strategy is one to consider.
Suggested principles for
promoting interconnection and
interoperability:
* Terms based on public domain
procedures;
* Rates based on long run
incremental costs;
* Practices monitored and
enforced by an independent
regulator;
* Interoperability built into all
future public sector planning.
Policy Recommendations - continued
4. Infrastructure
To support growing broadband
use and data traffic,
particularly over mobile,
substantial fibre-based
national backbones and
backhaul infrastructure will be
essential. To support
connectivity growth and
usage, policy makers need to
promote upgraded backbone
connectivity and inter-regional
bandwidth supply.
5. IXPs
One of the most effective ways
to reduce the transit costs is to
promote carrier-neutral IXPs. By
removing the bandwidth
bottleneck, the full economic
and social benefits of the
Internet economy can be
achieved and the path towards
a fully developed digital
economy embarked upon.
6. Business Climate
Encouraging investment and market
participation requires transparency
and regulatory clarity. This extends to
regulations towards imports of
software and hardware and
equipment approval procedures.
Policy makers should ensure that
device distribution and retail
networks are fully competitive.
Policy Recommendations - continued
7. Capacity
Building
To ensure effective policy
making, capacity building
needs to go beyond awareness
raising and include training of
policy makers and regulators.
Training needs to be crosssectoral and regulatory
frameworks need to be multistakeholder.
8. Statistical
Benchmarks
There needs to be a framework
and a process for the collection,
accounting, and analysis of
statistics and data. Often where
data is apparent it is nationally
defined and remains
incomparable. For effective policy
making across the emerging
digital economy, data needs to be
accurate, consistent, and regularly
updated.
9. Infrastructure
Sharing
Governments should proactively
support the sharing of scarce
resources such as towers and ducts
to maximize network competition;
as well as the sharing of certain
radio spectrum (or dynamic
spectrum assignment) to utilize
frequencies in bands of under-used
or unused spectrum.
Policy Recommendations
1. Prioritise and Enable Wireless Access (1:5X)
2. Identify and Stimulate Nascent Demand
3. Provide Principles for Network Interconnection and Services
Interoperability (Cross-border/Corridor to Corridor Exchange)
4. Build Regional Terrestrial Backbone Infrastructure
5. Promote the Development of Carrier-Neutral IXPs
6. Improve the Ease of Doing Business
7. Promote Capacity Building
8. Develop Statistical Benchmarks
9. Promote Infrastructure Sharing
63
Sources for Building Ad-Hoc Network, Connectivity
• https://commotionwireless.net/
64
Duangthip Chomprang
[email protected]
Rajnesh D. Singh
[email protected]
Trusted as the world's independent source of leadership for Internet policy, technology standards, and future
development.
Asia-Pacific Regional Bureau I Singapore
The Internet Society | www.internetsociety.org
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