realuri savaluto kursi

Ria ekonomikis
makroekonomika: ZiriTadi
cnebebi
Tavi 29
marina nacvalaZe
Ria da Caketili ekonomika
 Caketili ekonomika aris ekonomika, romelic ar
urTierTqmedebs sxva qveynebis ekonomikasTan
 Ria ekonomika aris ekonomika, romelic Tavisuflad
urTierTqmedebs sxva ekonomikebTan
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Ria ekonomika
 aRiwereba iseTi cvladebiT, rogorebica eqsporti, importi,
savaWro balansi da savaluto kursi.
 Ria ekonomika yidulobs da yidis saqonelsa da
momsaxurebas msoflios sasaqonlo bazrebze;
 Ria ekonomika yidulobs da yidis kapitalur aqtivebs
msoflios finansur bazrebze.
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saqonlis nakadi: eqsporti, importi da wminda
eqsporti
eqsporti aris qveynis SigniT warmoebuli da qveynis
gareT gayiduli saqoneli da momsaxureba.
importi aris qveynis gareT warmoebuli da qveynis
SigniT gayiduli saqoneli da momsaxureba.
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saqonlis nakadi: eqsporti, importi da wminda
eqsporti
 wminda eqsporti (NX) aris ucxoelTa mier SeZenili
samamulo saqonlis Rirebulebisa (eqsporti) da samamulo
rezidentebis mier SeZenili ucxouri warmoebis saqonlis
Rirebulebis (importi) sxvaoba.
 wminda eqsports aseve uwodeben savaWro balanss.
 savaWro balansi aris qveynis eqsportisa da importis
RirebulebaTa sxvaoba.
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saqonlis nakadi: eqsporti, importi da wminda
eqsporti
 savaWro deficiti aris situacia, rodesac wminda eqsporti (NX)
aris uaryofiTi.
importi > eqsporti
 savaWro upiratesoba aris situacia, rodesac wminda eqsporti
(NX) dadebiTia.
Eeqsporti > importi
 dabalansebuli vaWroba gviCvenebs imas, rom wminda eqsporti
nulis tolia – eqsporti da importi erTmaneTis tolia.
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faqtorebi, romlebic moqmedeben qveynis eqsportze,
importze da wminda eqsportze.
 momxmarebelTa gemovneba samamulo da ucxouri
saqonlis mimarT.
 saqonlis fasi qveyanaSi da ucxoeTSi.
 savaluto kursi, romliTac adamianebs SeuZliaT
erovnuli valutiT ucxouri valuta iyidon.
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faqtorebi, romlebic moqmedeben qveynis eqsportze, importze da
wminda eqsportze.
 momxmarebelTa Semosavlebi.
 qveynidan qveyanaSi saqonlis transportirebis xarjebi.
 mTavrobis politika saerTaSoriso vaWrobasTan mimarTebiT.
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aSS-is ekonomikis internacionalizacia
mSp-is
procentebi
15
importi
10
eqsporti
5
0
1950 1955
1960
1965
1970
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1975
1980 1985 1990 1995 1995
kapitalis nakadi: wminda ucxouri investiciebi
wminda ucxouri investiciebi ucxour aqtivebSi samamulo
rezidentebis mier gadaxdili Tanxisa da samamulo aqtivebSi
ucxoelTa mier gadaxdili Tanxis sxvaobaa.
aSS-is moqalaqes, romelsac $20 000 aqvs, SeuZlia iyidos rogorc
`toiotas” markis avtomobili, aseve korporacia `toiotas”aqciebi.
 pirveli garigeba saqonlis nakads warmoadgens, xolo meore garigeba
– kapitalis nakads.

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kapitalis nakadi: wminda ucxouri investiciebi
rodesac saqarTvelos moqalaqe ruseTis fiWuri
kavSirgabmulobis kompania `bilainis” aqciebs yidulobs, es
garigeba saqarTvelos wminda ucxour investiciebs zrdis.
 rodesac ruseTis moqalaqe saqarTvelos samTavrobo
obligaciebs yidulobs, es garigeba saqarTvelos wminda ucxour

investiciebs amcirebs.
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gavixsenoT: rogori saxis investiciebi viciT?


rogori saxis investiciaa makdonaldsis mier
saqarTveloSi restornis gaxsna?
rogori saxis investiciaa amerikelis mier qarTuli
korporaciis aqciebis SeZena?
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pirdapiri da portfeluri investiciebi

orive SemTxvevaSi aSS-is moqalaqeebi sxva
qveyanSi arsebul aqtivebs yiduloben, amitom orive
garigeba aSS-is wminda ucxour investiciebs zrdis.
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cvladebi, romlebic gavlenas axdenen wminda ucxour
investiciebze
 ucxouri aqtivebis sargeblis realuri ganakveTi.
 samamulo aqtivebis sargeblis realuri ganakveTi.
 ucxoeTSi aqtivis flobis ekonomikuri da politikuri riski.
 samTavrobo politika, romelic gavlenas axdens
samamulo aqtivebis ucxour mflobelobaze.
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wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis
toloba
 wminda eqsporti (NX) da wminda ucxouri investiciebi
(NFI) erTmaneTs unda awonasworebdes.
 mTlianad ekonomikaSi, NX da NFI erTmaneTis toli unda
iyos:
NFI = NX
es toloba samarTliania, vinaidan TiToeulma garigebam, romelic
tolobis erT mxareze moqmedebs, zustad asee unda imoqmedos
meore mxarezec.
 es toloba igiveobaa _ igi samarTliania masSi monawile cvladebis
ganmartebebidan gamomdinare.

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wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis
toloba – magaliTi:
amerikuli korporacia `boingi” yidis TviTmfrinavs. mas
yidulobs iaponuri aviakompania.
saqonlis nakadi: amerika iaponia
ucxouri aqtivebi: amerika iaponia
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wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis
toloba – magaliTi:
saqonlis nakadi: amerika iaponia
ucxouri aqtivebi: amerika iaponia
izrdeba aSS-is wminda eqsportic da aSS-is wminda ucxouri investiciebic.
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wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis
toloba – magaliTi:
`boings” SeuZlia ienebi dolarebSi gaucvalos sxva amerikul kompanias,
romlesac ienebi surs `toSibas” kompiuterebis SesaZenad.
aSS importi (kompiuterebi) = aSS eqsporti (TviTmfrinavebi)
es garigebebi ar imoqmedebs arc aSS-is wminda eqsportze da arc aSS-is
wminda ucxour investiciebze.
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danazogebi, investiciebi da maTi damokidebuleba
saerTaSoriso nakadebTan
 wminda eqsporti mSp-is erT erTi komponentia:
Y = C + I + G + NX
 erovnuli danazogi qveynis Semosavlis is nawilia,
romelic rCeba mimdinare moxmarebisa da
saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis xarjebis gaRebis Semdeg:
Y - C - G = I + NX
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danazogebi, investiciebi da maTi damokidebuleba
saerTaSoriso nakadebTan
 erovnuli danazogi (S) tolia Y-C-G
anu:
S = I + NX
an
danazogi
=
samamulo investiciebi
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+
wminda ucxouri
investiciebi
realuri da nominaluri gacvliTi kursebi
msoflio bazarze saerTaSoriso fasebi axorcieleben
momxmareblisa da mwarmoeblis gadawyvetilebis
koordinacias.
 ori umniSvnelovanesi saerTaSoriso fasebia – nominaluri da
realuri gacvliTi (savaluto ) kursebi.

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nominaluri savaluto kursi
 nominaluri savaluto kursi is kursia, romliTac erTi qveynis valuta
meore qveynis valutaze icvleba.
 nominaluri savaluto kursis gamoxatva ornairad SeiZleba:


ucxouri valutis wili dolarTan mimarTebaSi.
aSS-is dolaris wili ucxour valutasTan mimarTebaSi.


Tu savaluto kursia 80 ieni erT dolarSi, es imas niSnavs, rom savaluto kursia
1/80 (=0.0125) dolari erT ienSi.
Cvens msjelobaSi nominalur savaluto kurss gamovxatavT ucxouri valutis aSS
dolarTan SefardebiT, magaliTad 80 ieni erT dolarSi.
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nominaluri
savaluto kursi


Tu dolari yidulobs ufro met ucxour valutas, amboben rom moxda dolaris
Rirebulebis zrda.
Tu dolari yidulobs ufro nakleb ucxour valutas, amboben rom moxda
dolaris Rirebulebis Semcireba.
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realuri savaluto kursi
realuri savaluto kursi aris kursi, is Tanafardobaa, romliTac
pirovnebas SeuZlia SeiZinos erTi qveynis saqoneli da
momsaxureba meore qveynis saqonliTa da
momsaxurebiT.
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realuri
savaluto kursi

realuri savaluto kursi erTmaneTs adarebs samamulo da
ucxouri saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fasebs:
 Tu germanuli ludi amerikulze orjer Zviria, maSin realuri
savaluto kursi aris 1/2 boTli germanuli ludi erT boTl
amerikul ludze.
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realuri savaluto kursi
realuri savaluto kursi damokidebulia nominalur savaluto kursze
da ori qveynis valutiT gamoxatul saqonlis fasebze.
Real
Nominal exchange rate x Domestic price
Exchange 
Foreign price
Rate
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realuri savaluto kursi
vinaidan realuri savaluto kursi damokidebulia ori qveynis valutiT gamoxatul saqonlis
fasebze, ekonomistebi gaangariSebebSi samomxmareblo fasebis indeqss iyeneben.
avRniSnoT:
- Tu aSS-is fasebis indeqsi aris - P,
- fasebis indeqsi ucxouri firmebisTvis aris - P*,
- aSS dolarsa da ucxour valutas Soris nominaluri savaluto kursi aris - e
SegviZlia gamovTvaloT realuri savaluto kursi aSS-sa da sxva qveyanas Soris:
realuri savaluto kursi = (e x P) / P*
es realuri savaluto kursi asaxavs qveyanaSi arsebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis kalaTis fass
ucxoeTSi arsebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis kalaTis fasTan SedarebiT.
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realuri savaluto kursi
 qveynis realuri savaluto kursi am qveynis
wminda eqsportis ZiriTadi determinantia.
 aSS-is realuri savaluto kursis Semcireba niSnavs imas, rom
amerikuli saqoneli ufro gaiafda ucxour saqonelTan
mimarTebaSi.
 es stimuls aZlevs rogorc adgilobriv, aseve ucxoel
momxmareblebs iyidon ufro meti amerikuli da naklebi
ucxouri saqoneli.
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realuri savaluto kursi
 Sedegad, aSS-is eqsporti izrdeba da aSS-is importi mcirdeba,
da orive es cvlileba zrdis aSS-is wminda eqsports.
 da piriqiT, aSS-is realuri savaluto kursis zrda niSnavs, rom
amerikuli saqoneli gaZvirda ucxour saqonleTan SedarebiT,
amitom aSS-is wminda eqsporti mcirdeba.
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msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti
 msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti aris Teoria, romlis
mixedviTac nebismieri valutis erTi erTeuliT unda
SegveZlos saqonlis erTi da imave raodenobis SeZena
yvela qveyanaSi.
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msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi
logika
 msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis Teoria efuZvneba
princips, romlesac ewodeba erTiani fasis kanoni.
 am kanonis Tanaxmad, saqoneli yvelgan erT fasad
unda iyidebodes.
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msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi logika
 Tu ar sruldeba erTiani fasis kanoni, iarsebebs
gamouyenebeli (ganuWvreteli, ganusazRvreli) mogebis
miRebis SesaZlebloba (unexploited profit
opportunities).
 sxvadasxva bazrebze sxvadasxva fasebis upiratesobis
gamoyenebis process arbitraJi ewodeba.
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msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi logika
 yavis fasi sietlSi – 4$;
 yavis fasi bostonSi – 5$;
ra moxdeba bazarze amis Sedegad?
 yavis fasi aSS-Si – dabalia;
 yavis fasi iaponiaSi – maRalia;
ra moxdeba aSS-sa da iaponiaSi?
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msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi Sedegebi
Tu dolaris msyidvelobiTi unari yovelTvis erTi da igivea rogorc amerikaSi,
aseve qveynis gareT, maSin realuri savaluto kursi – samamulo da
ucxouri saqonlis fardobiTi fasi - ar Seicvleba.
 ori qveynis valutas Soris nominaluri savaluto kursi damokidebulia
qveyanaSi arsebuli fasebis doneebze.

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msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi Sedegebi



vinaidan msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis Teoriis Tanaxmad erT dolars (an
nebismier sxva valutas) yvela qveyanaSi saqonlis erTi da imave
raodenobis yidva unda SeeZlos,
=> ori qveynis valutis nominaluri savaluto kursebi am or qveyanaSi
arsebuli fasebis dones asaxaven.
im qveynebis valutis Rirebuleba, romlebSic inflacia SedarebiT maRalia,
mcirdeba, xolo im qveynebis valutis Rirebuleba, romlebSic inflacia
SedarebiT dabalia, izrdeba.
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fuli, fasebi da nominaluri savaluto kursi germaniis hiperinflaciis dros
indeqsi
(ianv.1921
= 100)
1,000,000,000,000,000
fulis miwodeba
10,000,000,000
fasebis done
100,000
1
savaluto kursi
.00001
.0000000001
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis Teoriis gamoyenebis SezRudvebi:
ori mizezi, Tu ratom ar marTldeba es Teoria
 mravali saxis saqoneli erTmaneTSi advilad ar icvleba.
 sxvadasxva qveyanaSi warmoebuli ori saxis saqoneli,
romelTa erTmaneTSi gacvlac SesaZlebelia, yovelTvis
srulyofilad Semcvlelebi ar arian.
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savarjiSo 1.
erTi boTli mineraluri wyali SeerTebul StatebSi 0.75 dolari Rirs, xolo
meqsikaSi – 12 peso.
a) ras udris pesosa da dolaris kursi erTmaneTis mimarT, Tu daculia
msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti?
b) rogor Seicvleba gacvliTi kursi, Tu meqsikaSI fasebi gaormagdeba?
a) Tu daculia msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti, maSin 12 peso erT boTl wyalze
gayofili $0.75 erT boTl wyalze udris gacvliT kurss - 16 peso erT dolarze. b) Tu
meqsikaSi fasebi gaormagdeba, gacvliTi kursic gaormagdeba da gaxdeba 32 peso
erT dolarze.
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savarjiSo 1.
erTi boTli mineraluri wyali SeerTebul StatebSi 0.75 dolari Rirs, xolo meqsikaSi – 12 peso.
a) ras udris pesosa da dolaris kursi erTmaneTis mimarT, Tu daculia msyidvelobiTi unaris
pariteti?
b) rogor Seicvleba gacvliTi kursi, Tu meqsikaSi fasebi gaormagdeba?
pasuxi:
a) Tu daculia msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti, maSin 12 peso erT boTl wyalze
gayofili $0.75 erT boTl wyalze udris gacvliT kurss - 16 peso erT dolarze.
b) b) Tu meqsikaSi fasebi gaormagdeba, gacvliTi kursic gaormagdeba da
gaxdeba 32 peso erT dolarze.
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savarjiSo 2
rogor imoqmedeben qvemoT CamoTvlili garigebebi aSS-is eqsportze, importze da wminda
eqsportze?
a)
xelovnebaTmcodneobis amerikeli profesori zafxuls evropuli muzeumebis
TvalierebaSi atarebs
pasuxi: rodesac xelovnebaTmcodneobis amerikeli profesori zafxuls evropuli muzeumebis
TvalierebaSi atarebs, is fuls xarjavs ucxour saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze, ase rom
amerikis eqsporti ar Seicvleba, importi gaizrdeba da wminda eqsporti Semcirdeba.
b) parizeli studentebi erTad midian arnold Svarcenegeris ukanaskneli filmis sanaxavad
pasuxi: rodesac parizeli studentebi erTad midian arnold Svarcenegeris ukanaskneli filmis
sanaxavad, gamodis rom ucxoelebi yiduloben amerikul saqonels, ase rom, eqsporti
gaizrdeba, importi ar Seicvleba da wminda eqsporti gaizrdeba.
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